Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of March 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)12. The survey was conducted during March 2-11, 2024 in 19 major cities, with responses from 6,083 urban households. Female respondents accounted for 50.8 per cent of this sample.
Highlights:
Households’ inflation expectations for both three months and one year ahead moderated by 20 basis points (bps) each to 9.0 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively; their perception on current inflation, however, remained unchanged at 8.1 per cent [Charts 1(a) and 1(b); Table 3].
The share of households expecting overall prices and inflation to increase over the next three months and one year moderated for general prices as well as for most of the product groups, when compared to the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Median inflation expectation was relatively low for respondents below 25 years in age among all age-groups; in occupation category, it was lower among financial sector employees [Table 2].
Households’ expectations on general price for one year horizon remained closely aligned with food prices and housing related expenses [Table 4].
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Mar-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
General
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Prices will increase
83.8
0.83
74.2
0.97
74.1
0.93
78.2
0.84
76.5
0.85
Price increase more than current rate
60.6
1.17
49.5
1.10
50.8
1.13
54.4
1.09
53.1
1.08
Price increase similar to current rate
19.8
0.87
20.0
0.80
19.1
0.85
19.5
0.80
18.2
0.79
Price increase less than current rate
3.5
0.36
4.7
0.47
4.2
0.42
4.2
0.43
5.2
0.44
No changes in prices
13.3
0.74
20.7
0.88
21.2
0.88
18.3
0.79
19.6
0.80
Decline in prices
2.8
0.41
5.0
0.52
4.7
0.45
3.6
0.37
3.9
0.38
Food Product
Prices will increase
84.0
0.75
75.4
0.87
75.5
0.90
80.2
0.77
76.7
0.81
Price increase more than current rate
62.1
1.12
55.1
1.05
53.7
1.04
59.3
1.00
54.4
1.00
Price increase similar to current rate
16.9
0.79
15.1
0.71
16.1
0.74
15.6
0.72
15.7
0.69
Price increase less than current rate
5.1
0.42
5.3
0.46
5.8
0.47
5.4
0.45
6.6
0.50
No changes in prices
9.7
0.59
13.2
0.68
15.5
0.76
12.3
0.65
15.1
0.68
Decline in prices
6.3
0.53
11.3
0.66
9.0
0.57
7.5
0.51
8.2
0.54
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase
81.3
0.79
69.2
0.93
73.8
0.87
74.0
0.85
71.5
0.87
Price increase more than current rate
58.6
1.10
47.1
1.04
52.4
1.04
52.3
1.03
48.9
1.01
Price increase similar to current rate
17.7
0.80
16.7
0.72
16.1
0.72
16.4
0.71
16.2
0.71
Price increase less than current rate
5.1
0.43
5.4
0.51
5.3
0.46
5.2
0.45
6.4
0.48
No changes in prices
13.3
0.67
20.5
0.77
19.5
0.77
18.6
0.76
20.9
0.80
Decline in prices
5.4
0.51
10.3
0.66
6.7
0.48
7.4
0.52
7.7
0.51
Household Durables
Prices will increase
67.9
0.92
62.2
0.99
63.8
0.98
65.5
0.93
64.7
0.92
Price increase more than current rate
47.8
1.09
43.2
1.05
45.5
1.02
46.3
1.04
43.8
1.01
Price increase similar to current rate
15.8
0.75
14.1
0.65
13.4
0.68
14.5
0.65
15.5
0.70
Price increase less than current rate
4.2
0.41
4.9
0.43
4.9
0.43
4.7
0.42
5.4
0.44
No changes in prices
22.4
0.85
26.4
0.88
25.9
0.89
25.2
0.85
26.1
0.85
Decline in prices
9.7
0.60
11.3
0.64
10.3
0.59
9.4
0.57
9.2
0.57
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase
78.2
0.92
75.1
0.95
76.8
0.88
78.4
0.83
76.9
0.83
Price increase more than current rate
57.7
1.14
54.3
1.09
57.2
1.09
58.2
1.05
55.8
1.07
Price increase similar to current rate
16.7
0.76
16.3
0.66
15.5
0.72
16.1
0.72
16.4
0.74
Price increase less than current rate
3.8
0.39
4.5
0.43
4.1
0.37
4.0
0.41
4.7
0.40
No changes in prices
18.1
0.83
20.9
0.90
20.0
0.83
18.1
0.79
19.6
0.78
Decline in prices
3.7
0.44
4.1
0.46
3.2
0.36
3.6
0.34
3.5
0.36
Cost of Services
Prices will increase
73.2
0.90
63.0
1.04
63.3
0.96
65.0
0.93
65.0
0.97
Price increase more than current rate
51.7
1.11
44.7
1.05
43.7
1.09
46.1
1.02
45.5
1.09
Price increase similar to current rate
17.8
0.76
14.5
0.68
15.5
0.70
15.0
0.69
14.4
0.70
Price increase less than current rate
3.6
0.37
3.9
0.40
4.2
0.40
3.8
0.37
5.2
0.45
No changes in prices
23.2
0.86
31.2
0.99
31.5
0.93
30.5
0.91
30.1
0.92
Decline in prices
3.6
0.40
5.7
0.54
5.1
0.48
4.5
0.41
4.8
0.43
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Mar-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
General
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Prices will increase
90.4
0.66
86.2
0.74
89.0
0.65
88.7
0.63
87.4
0.67
Price increase more than current rate
69.3
1.11
62.2
1.05
67.2
1.07
66.3
1.06
64.7
1.08
Price increase similar to current rate
18.1
0.87
19.9
0.81
18.4
0.87
19.1
0.83
18.5
0.83
Price increase less than current rate
3.0
0.33
4.1
0.43
3.4
0.38
3.3
0.36
4.2
0.41
No changes in prices
6.4
0.50
9.6
0.59
8.4
0.56
8.2
0.55
9.7
0.59
Decline in prices
3.2
0.43
4.2
0.48
2.7
0.35
3.0
0.36
2.9
0.35
Food Product
Prices will increase
86.3
0.71
82.8
0.80
86.1
0.71
86.4
0.68
84.5
0.73
Price increase more than current rate
63.7
1.16
57.9
1.09
63.2
1.06
63.6
1.03
59.5
1.10
Price increase similar to current rate
18.5
0.86
19.7
0.82
18.4
0.83
18.2
0.77
19.8
0.80
Price increase less than current rate
4.1
0.38
5.3
0.48
4.5
0.41
4.7
0.43
5.2
0.45
No changes in prices
8.1
0.53
9.6
0.58
8.8
0.56
8.7
0.53
10.1
0.61
Decline in prices
5.6
0.52
7.6
0.60
5.1
0.44
4.9
0.43
5.4
0.44
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase
85.4
0.73
78.9
0.83
82.6
0.78
82.0
0.80
81.1
0.76
Price increase more than current rate
62.9
1.12
54.7
1.05
60.7
1.09
59.1
1.11
56.3
1.09
Price increase similar to current rate
18.2
0.78
19.7
0.78
17.4
0.80
18.6
0.79
19.5
0.82
Price increase less than current rate
4.3
0.40
4.5
0.44
4.5
0.42
4.4
0.41
5.3
0.47
No changes in prices
9.4
0.55
13.9
0.66
12.9
0.65
13.1
0.66
14.1
0.69
Decline in prices
5.2
0.51
7.2
0.57
4.5
0.43
4.8
0.45
4.8
0.44
Household Durables
Prices will increase
76.5
0.85
73.9
0.91
75.5
0.89
74.8
0.84
74.5
0.83
Price increase more than current rate
55.8
1.15
52.4
1.04
55.3
1.07
54.0
1.06
52.3
1.06
Price increase similar to current rate
16.9
0.80
17.3
0.71
16.3
0.77
16.7
0.69
17.3
0.76
Price increase less than current rate
3.8
0.38
4.1
0.42
3.9
0.39
4.1
0.41
5.0
0.45
No changes in prices
15.4
0.70
18.5
0.76
17.7
0.76
18.3
0.75
18.1
0.76
Decline in prices
8.1
0.60
7.7
0.56
6.8
0.50
6.9
0.49
7.4
0.51
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase
87.4
0.65
86.1
0.70
87.9
0.68
88.0
0.65
87.2
0.66
Price increase more than current rate
66.6
1.06
65.0
1.04
68.5
1.02
67.7
0.96
65.6
1.01
Price increase similar to current rate
17.4
0.80
16.9
0.73
16.3
0.78
16.7
0.74
17.2
0.74
Price increase less than current rate
3.4
0.37
4.2
0.42
3.1
0.36
3.6
0.40
4.4
0.39
No changes in prices
9.2
0.54
10.1
0.56
9.4
0.61
9.1
0.55
9.5
0.57
Decline in prices
3.4
0.41
3.8
0.43
2.7
0.34
2.9
0.34
3.3
0.36
Cost of Services
Prices will increase
83.6
0.80
78.4
0.86
80.8
0.81
79.5
0.78
80.1
0.78
Price increase more than current rate
60.5
1.14
56.2
1.05
59.2
1.08
58.8
1.03
56.3
1.08
Price increase similar to current rate
18.8
0.83
18.0
0.70
17.6
0.80
16.6
0.72
18.9
0.78
Price increase less than current rate
4.3
0.39
4.2
0.43
4.0
0.40
4.1
0.40
4.9
0.45
No changes in prices
13.0
0.68
17.1
0.74
16.3
0.74
17.0
0.72
16.0
0.71
Decline in prices
3.4
0.44
4.4
0.48
2.9
0.36
3.5
0.37
3.9
0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Mar-24
Current Perception
Three Months ahead Expectation
One Year ahead Expectation
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Overall
8.7
0.09
8.1
0.13
9.6
0.09
9.0
0.16
9.5
0.10
9.8
0.19
Gender-wise
Male
8.9
0.13
8.1
0.18
9.6
0.13
9.1
0.25
9.5
0.15
9.6
0.28
Female
8.7
0.12
8.1
0.16
9.7
0.13
9.1
0.25
9.5
0.15
10.0
0.20
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees
8.7
0.43
7.2
0.43
9.2
0.43
8.4
0.51
9.5
0.45
8.5
0.30
Other Employees
8.7
0.17
8.1
0.21
9.4
0.17
8.9
0.22
9.5
0.21
9.9
0.27
Self Employed
8.9
0.19
8.2
0.25
9.5
0.20
9.0
0.32
9.5
0.24
9.6
0.42
Homemakers
8.7
0.14
8.2
0.17
9.7
0.15
9.3
0.28
9.6
0.17
10.1
0.14
Retired Persons
9.6
0.32
9.1
0.70
10.2
0.31
10.1
0.33
9.5
0.44
9.6
0.63
Daily Workers
8.6
0.24
7.8
0.28
9.3
0.27
8.9
0.50
8.6
0.37
9.0
0.50
Other category
8.2
0.19
7.6
0.20
9.2
0.20
8.4
0.19
9.1
0.25
8.9
0.32
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years
8.0
0.16
7.2
0.18
8.9
0.17
8.1
0.17
8.9
0.21
8.7
0.21
25 to 30 years
8.5
0.18
8.0
0.24
9.2
0.19
8.9
0.27
9.4
0.23
9.7
0.34
30 to 35 years
8.9
0.19
8.2
0.25
9.7
0.20
9.2
0.35
9.8
0.26
10.2
0.18
35 to 40 years
9.0
0.20
8.5
0.23
9.9
0.21
9.8
0.30
9.8
0.24
10.1
0.27
40 to 45 years
9.0
0.22
8.4
0.28
9.9
0.22
9.4
0.36
9.7
0.27
10.0
0.28
45 to 50 years
9.1
0.23
8.9
0.43
9.9
0.25
10.0
0.30
9.5
0.29
10.0
0.33
50 to 55 years
8.4
0.26
7.7
0.39
9.3
0.27
8.5
0.38
8.8
0.34
9.3
0.58
55 to 60 years
9.4
0.33
9.2
0.60
10.2
0.33
9.9
0.50
9.9
0.41
10.0
0.54
60 years and above
9.1
0.24
8.6
0.43
10.0
0.27
10.0
0.35
9.1
0.35
9.5
0.47
City-wise
Ahmedabad
7.5
0.30
6.9
0.34
8.6
0.36
7.8
0.39
8.2
0.43
8.1
0.50
Bengaluru
6.9
0.22
5.7
0.12
8.4
0.23
7.6
0.34
9.2
0.24
8.8
0.39
Bhopal
8.9
0.82
8.0
1.28
9.7
0.75
9.6
0.85
8.8
0.59
8.5
1.10
Bhubaneswar
8.8
0.64
7.9
1.32
10.3
0.67
9.6
1.30
10.0
0.81
10.4
1.02
Chennai
10.6
0.40
10.4
0.33
11.7
0.40
12.0
1.27
12.0
0.48
14.3
1.51
Delhi
9.3
0.21
9.2
0.49
10.1
0.22
10.1
0.20
10.2
0.27
10.4
0.17
Guwahati
7.6
0.42
6.7
0.56
7.9
0.48
7.3
0.67
8.3
0.61
7.6
1.09
Hyderabad
8.7
0.36
8.0
0.40
9.4
0.32
8.9
0.38
9.1
0.43
9.9
0.45
Jaipur
7.9
0.39
7.4
0.49
8.1
0.38
7.6
0.37
6.6
0.59
6.3
0.85
Jammu
12.3
0.73
13.4
2.10
11.9
0.64
13.3
1.81
11.4
0.87
14.6
1.71
Kolkata
10.0
0.25
9.6
0.50
10.8
0.24
10.3
0.28
10.8
0.27
10.7
0.36
Lucknow
8.6
0.58
7.7
0.77
9.0
0.53
8.0
0.75
9.0
0.60
8.4
0.74
Mumbai
8.4
0.22
7.6
0.25
9.1
0.22
8.4
0.27
8.2
0.25
8.6
0.34
Nagpur
8.5
0.47
8.0
0.66
9.8
0.50
9.3
0.66
9.6
0.68
10.4
0.47
Patna
7.4
0.44
7.3
0.62
8.1
0.47
8.2
0.55
8.0
0.53
8.4
0.50
Thiruvananthapuram
7.2
0.59
6.0
0.73
9.1
0.63
8.3
1.06
10.5
0.59
9.7
1.14
Chandigarh
10.5
0.60
9.8
0.37
10.3
0.61
10.0
0.46
10.3
0.65
10.1
0.54
Ranchi
8.9
0.33
8.3
0.29
9.2
0.34
8.8
0.35
9.1
0.66
9.6
0.69
Raipur
9.9
0.51
10.0
0.51
10.4
0.55
10.4
0.53
9.3
0.76
10.3
0.80
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
Current Perception
Three Months ahead Expectation
One Year ahead Expectation
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Mar-23
9.5
0.10
8.9
0.17
10.5
0.10
10.2
0.08
10.4
0.11
10.5
0.07
Sep-23
9.0
0.09
8.4
0.11
9.7
0.09
9.1
0.17
9.3
0.11
9.9
0.17
Nov-23
8.9
0.09
8.2
0.12
9.7
0.09
9.1
0.18
9.6
0.10
10.1
0.10
Jan-24
8.8
0.09
8.1
0.12
9.7
0.09
9.2
0.17
9.6
0.10
10.0
0.13
Mar-24
8.7
0.09
8.1
0.13
9.6
0.09
9.0
0.16
9.5
0.10
9.8
0.19
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Food
Non-Food
Households durables
Housing
Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Mar-23
67.4
68.8
60.9
65.9
68.0
Sep-23
62.0
64.3
60.7
63.2
66.3
Nov-23
66.5
61.8
57.0
60.7
66.4
Jan-24
65.2
65.4
60.8
64.2
65.8
Mar-24
65.4
66.1
61.2
64.6
66.8
One Year Ahead
Mar-23
75.7
75.7
69.6
74.9
75.7
Sep-23
69.8
71.2
66.8
72.2
71.5
Nov-23
74.8
73.9
68.1
75.3
73.9
Jan-24
76.5
74.1
67.9
74.9
74.6
Mar-24
74.6
73.6
68.3
75.0
74.2
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)
<1
1-<2
2-<3
3-<4
4-<5
5-<6
6-<7
7-<8
8-<9
9-<10
10-<11
11-<12
12-<13
13-<14
14-<15
15-<16
>=16
No idea
Total
<1
14
2
0
0
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
21
1-<2
5
32
21
4
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
65
2-<3
1
10
111
78
43
15
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
261
3-<4
0
4
10
113
64
53
9
1
1
1
4
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
261
4-<5
0
0
8
13
118
73
46
16
8
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
286
5-<6
2
4
22
31
29
495
152
205
79
16
106
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
1146
6-<7
0
2
3
8
5
17
190
98
68
19
16
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
431
7-<8
0
1
2
3
5
20
9
241
120
59
49
5
5
0
1
0
0
0
520
8-<9
0
2
0
1
3
9
12
5
192
88
173
9
16
2
1
2
5
0
520
9-<10
0
0
3
0
0
1
1
4
6
96
82
17
20
4
2
5
0
0
241
10-<11
0
1
1
2
3
42
5
10
17
15
450
64
184
57
10
236
72
1
1170
11-<12
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
12
5
4
1
0
1
0
28
12-<13
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
36
8
15
23
7
0
94
13-<14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
5
1
2
2
0
11
14-<15
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
6
0
5
0
14
15-<16
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
3
0
12
0
3
2
0
76
124
0
225
>=16
0
0
2
0
0
7
0
1
1
1
23
1
4
0
0
26
720
3
789
Total
22
59
184
253
273
741
427
582
495
299
923
114
275
82
38
375
937
4
6083
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Mar-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)
<1
1-<2
2-<3
3-<4
4-<5
5-<6
6-<7
7-<8
8-<9
9-<10
10-<11
11-<12
12-<13
13-<14
14-<15
15-<16
>=16
No idea
Total
<1
11
1
3
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
1-<2
22
13
17
5
3
4
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
65
2-<3
45
4
39
60
56
37
10
3
2
0
4
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
261
3-<4
35
3
6
51
50
64
20
14
9
1
4
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
261
4-<5
48
0
1
5
52
52
52
30
22
5
16
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
286
5-<6
162
1
10
9
20
247
119
159
129
43
197
6
8
3
0
24
8
1
1146
6-<7
71
0
2
0
3
6
86
73
90
29
44
9
6
2
1
6
3
0
431
7-<8
69
1
0
1
2
9
4
120
90
65
104
15
21
0
5
12
2
0
520
8-<9
58
0
0
1
2
2
4
6
100
62
150
35
61
6
5
19
9
0
520
9-<10
21
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
5
59
44
38
36
5
8
13
8
0
241
10-<11
112
0
0
1
1
16
1
4
11
5
241
48
144
51
29
291
213
2
1170
11-<12
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
4
5
3
3
3
2
0
28
12-<13
10
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
0
18
7
16
25
13
0
94
13-<14
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
1
4
0
11
14-<15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
4
3
5
0
14
15-<16
20
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
0
1
1
0
48
151
0
225
>=16
74
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
1
0
12
0
2
0
1
12
677
4
789
Total
767
23
79
134
190
446
298
412
461
270
824
158
304
81
75
458
1096
7
6083
1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.
2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.
3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 08, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.
RbiTtsCommonUtility
PLAYING
LISTEN
LOADING...
0:062:49
Related Assets
RBI-Install-RBI-Content-Global
RbiSocialMediaUtility
Share this page:
Install the RBI mobile application and get quick access to the latest news!
RbiWasItHelpfulUtility
Was this page helpful?Thanks!
Would like to give more details?
Thank you for your feedback!Thank you for your feedback!