Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)12. The survey was conducted during September 1-10, 2024, in 19 major cities, with 6,076 valid responses, where female participation was 52.6 per cent.
Highlights:
Households’ median perception of current inflation declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 8.1 per cent, when compared to July 2024 round of the survey; their inflation expectations for three months and one year ahead periods moderated by 20 and 10 bps, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].
For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation have reduced vis-à-vis the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Price and inflationary pressures eased across all the product groups [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations when compared to their male counterparts [Table 2].
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Sep-23
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
General
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Prices will increase
74.2
0.97
76.5
0.85
80.6
0.81
82.3
0.77
79.7
0.89
Price increase more than current rate
49.5
1.1
53.1
1.08
59.1
1.13
60.5
1.13
55.5
1.21
Price increase similar to current rate
20
0.8
18.2
0.79
17.5
0.83
17.3
0.86
19.2
0.86
Price increase less than current rate
4.7
0.47
5.2
0.44
4
0.43
4.5
0.48
5
0.55
No changes in prices
20.7
0.88
19.6
0.8
16.6
0.77
14.6
0.71
17.9
0.85
Decline in prices
5
0.52
3.9
0.38
2.8
0.32
3.1
0.37
2.5
0.32
Food Product
Prices will increase
75.4
0.87
76.7
0.81
81.8
0.74
84.2
0.7
83.9
0.75
Price increase more than current rate
55.1
1.05
54.4
1
61
1.07
62.1
1.03
60.7
1.07
Price increase similar to current rate
15.1
0.71
15.7
0.69
15.3
0.74
16
0.75
16.7
0.77
Price increase less than current rate
5.3
0.46
6.6
0.5
5.5
0.46
6.1
0.52
6.6
0.58
No changes in prices
13.2
0.68
15.1
0.68
12.1
0.64
10.2
0.57
11.2
0.67
Decline in prices
11.3
0.66
8.2
0.54
6.1
0.46
5.6
0.47
4.9
0.42
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase
69.2
0.93
71.5
0.87
75
0.85
77
0.81
76.1
0.92
Price increase more than current rate
47.1
1.04
48.9
1.01
53.7
1.11
54.5
1.1
52.4
1.11
Price increase similar to current rate
16.7
0.72
16.2
0.71
15.6
0.72
16.2
0.79
17.7
0.78
Price increase less than current rate
5.4
0.51
6.4
0.48
5.7
0.5
6.2
0.52
6.1
0.55
No changes in prices
20.5
0.77
20.9
0.8
19.3
0.78
17.6
0.74
19.1
0.85
Decline in prices
10.3
0.66
7.7
0.51
5.7
0.43
5.4
0.48
4.7
0.42
Household Durables
Prices will increase
62.2
0.99
64.7
0.92
68.2
0.94
68.2
0.97
64.9
1.03
Price increase more than current rate
43.2
1.05
43.8
1.01
48.3
1.1
49.6
1.09
45.9
1.11
Price increase similar to current rate
14.1
0.65
15.5
0.7
15.2
0.74
13.9
0.73
14.2
0.71
Price increase less than current rate
4.9
0.43
5.4
0.44
4.7
0.44
4.7
0.44
4.7
0.48
No changes in prices
26.4
0.88
26.1
0.85
23.4
0.86
23.4
0.88
25.2
0.97
Decline in prices
11.3
0.64
9.2
0.57
8.5
0.53
8.4
0.58
9.8
0.55
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase
75.1
0.95
76.9
0.83
80.4
0.81
78.6
0.84
77.7
0.88
Price increase more than current rate
54.3
1.09
55.8
1.07
59.3
1.06
59.6
1.07
56.9
1.11
Price increase similar to current rate
16.3
0.66
16.4
0.74
16.7
0.77
14.8
0.78
16.3
0.75
Price increase less than current rate
4.5
0.43
4.7
0.4
4.3
0.44
4.1
0.45
4.5
0.48
No changes in prices
20.9
0.9
19.6
0.78
16.7
0.77
18.2
0.78
19.1
0.87
Decline in prices
4.1
0.46
3.5
0.36
3
0.34
3.2
0.37
3.3
0.35
Cost of Services
Prices will increase
63
1.04
65
0.97
68.6
0.98
71
0.95
66.9
1.04
Price increase more than current rate
44.7
1.05
45.5
1.09
49.2
1.12
52.7
1.12
46.9
1.15
Price increase similar to current rate
14.5
0.68
14.4
0.7
14.4
0.68
13.6
0.7
15.5
0.73
Price increase less than current rate
3.9
0.4
5.2
0.45
5
0.46
4.6
0.46
4.5
0.46
No changes in prices
31.2
0.99
30.1
0.92
27.3
0.94
25.3
0.9
29.8
1.01
Decline in prices
5.7
0.54
4.8
0.43
4.1
0.39
3.7
0.38
3.2
0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Sep-23
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
General
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Prices will increase
86.2
0.74
87.4
0.67
89.1
0.64
90.6
0.6
89.4
0.73
Price increase more than current rate
62.2
1.05
64.7
1.08
67.9
1.14
68.6
1.12
66.5
1.2
Price increase similar to current rate
19.9
0.81
18.5
0.83
17.8
0.9
18.3
0.86
18.6
0.91
Price increase less than current rate
4.1
0.43
4.2
0.41
3.5
0.41
3.7
0.43
4.4
0.5
No changes in prices
9.6
0.59
9.7
0.59
7.9
0.56
6.6
0.5
8.6
0.67
Decline in prices
4.2
0.48
2.9
0.35
3
0.34
2.9
0.35
2
0.28
Food Product
Prices will increase
82.8
0.8
84.5
0.73
86
0.68
87.1
0.65
86.6
0.78
Price increase more than current rate
57.9
1.09
59.5
1.1
62.8
1.1
63.5
1.09
61.8
1.2
Price increase similar to current rate
19.7
0.82
19.8
0.8
18.3
0.86
19
0.84
19.2
0.85
Price increase less than current rate
5.3
0.48
5.2
0.45
4.9
0.49
4.6
0.48
5.6
0.55
No changes in prices
9.6
0.58
10.1
0.61
9.3
0.58
7.9
0.52
9.7
0.66
Decline in prices
7.6
0.6
5.4
0.44
4.7
0.39
5
0.43
3.8
0.38
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase
78.9
0.83
81.1
0.76
82.1
0.79
82.9
0.77
82.4
0.85
Price increase more than current rate
54.7
1.05
56.3
1.09
59.8
1.13
61.2
1.12
58.3
1.2
Price increase similar to current rate
19.7
0.78
19.5
0.82
17.3
0.8
16.9
0.8
18.5
0.83
Price increase less than current rate
4.5
0.44
5.3
0.47
5.1
0.47
4.8
0.46
5.6
0.57
No changes in prices
13.9
0.66
14.1
0.69
12.9
0.68
12.4
0.64
14
0.77
Decline in prices
7.2
0.57
4.8
0.44
5
0.44
4.7
0.44
3.6
0.37
Household Durables
Prices will increase
73.9
0.91
74.5
0.83
76.8
0.83
77.4
0.83
76.2
0.93
Price increase more than current rate
52.4
1.04
52.3
1.06
56
1.12
56.6
1.12
54.5
1.16
Price increase similar to current rate
17.3
0.71
17.3
0.76
16.4
0.79
16.1
0.76
16.5
0.79
Price increase less than current rate
4.1
0.42
5
0.45
4.4
0.44
4.8
0.49
5.1
0.5
No changes in prices
18.5
0.76
18.1
0.76
16.6
0.72
16.3
0.73
17.3
0.79
Decline in prices
7.7
0.56
7.4
0.51
6.6
0.47
6.3
0.48
6.5
0.49
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase
86.1
0.7
87.2
0.66
89.2
0.64
88.2
0.66
87.7
0.74
Price increase more than current rate
65
1.04
65.6
1.01
68.7
1.02
66.6
1.05
65.9
1.07
Price increase similar to current rate
16.9
0.73
17.2
0.74
16.3
0.75
17.7
0.8
17
0.79
Price increase less than current rate
4.2
0.42
4.4
0.39
4.2
0.45
3.9
0.43
4.8
0.53
No changes in prices
10.1
0.56
9.5
0.57
8.4
0.57
8.6
0.55
8.9
0.6
Decline in prices
3.8
0.43
3.3
0.36
2.4
0.31
3.2
0.36
3.4
0.4
Cost of Services
Prices will increase
78.4
0.86
80.1
0.78
82.1
0.77
83.4
0.76
82.2
0.85
Price increase more than current rate
56.2
1.05
56.3
1.08
58.9
1.13
61.6
1.17
58.8
1.18
Price increase similar to current rate
18
0.7
18.9
0.78
18.6
0.83
17.4
0.82
17.9
0.8
Price increase less than current rate
4.2
0.43
4.9
0.45
4.6
0.44
4.4
0.45
5.5
0.57
No changes in prices
17.1
0.74
16
0.71
14.7
0.71
13.2
0.67
15.3
0.8
Decline in prices
4.4
0.48
3.9
0.38
3.2
0.34
3.4
0.39
2.4
0.3
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-24
Current Perception
Three Months ahead Expectation
One Year ahead Expectation
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Overall
8.6
0.09
8.1
0.13
9.6
0.1
9.2
0.23
9.6
0.12
10
0.14
Gender-wise
Male
8.9
0.13
8.3
0.17
9.7
0.14
9.4
0.32
9.7
0.16
10.1
0.16
Female
8.5
0.12
8
0.17
9.5
0.13
9.2
0.31
9.5
0.16
10
0.18
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees
9
0.56
8.6
0.8
9.7
0.61
9.4
0.92
10.4
0.66
10.3
1.17
Other Employees
8.6
0.16
8.1
0.21
9.5
0.17
9
0.28
9.6
0.2
10
0.23
Self Employed
8.9
0.19
8.4
0.24
9.7
0.2
9.8
0.4
9.6
0.25
10.1
0.3
Homemaker
8.4
0.14
8
0.2
9.6
0.16
9.4
0.37
9.5
0.19
10
0.21
Retired Persons
10.2
0.47
9.8
0.65
10.7
0.46
10.4
0.63
10.4
0.52
10.6
0.82
Daily Workers
9.2
0.24
9.1
0.4
10.1
0.25
10.1
0.4
10.1
0.31
10.3
0.29
Other category
7.9
0.19
7.2
0.23
8.8
0.21
7.9
0.21
8.8
0.26
8.6
0.3
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years
8.1
0.15
7.4
0.19
9
0.16
8.3
0.18
9.4
0.19
9.4
0.32
25 to 30 years
8.5
0.17
8.1
0.21
9.5
0.19
9.1
0.31
9.5
0.22
9.9
0.25
30 to 35 years
8.5
0.18
8.1
0.22
9.5
0.2
9.2
0.37
9.6
0.24
10.1
0.23
35 to 40 years
8.8
0.2
8.4
0.26
9.7
0.21
9.6
0.48
9.6
0.26
10
0.33
40 to 45 years
8.8
0.2
8.2
0.33
9.6
0.21
9.4
0.51
9.3
0.27
9.7
0.44
45 to 50 years
8.9
0.21
8.7
0.33
10.1
0.24
10.2
0.25
9.7
0.3
10.2
0.26
50 to 55 years
9.2
0.3
8.8
0.52
10
0.32
9.8
0.57
10.1
0.36
10.2
0.35
55 to 60 years
9.5
0.29
9.4
0.36
10.6
0.32
10.5
0.24
10.4
0.38
10.7
0.41
60 years and above
9.5
0.29
9.3
0.69
10.3
0.32
10.1
0.37
9.9
0.37
10.1
0.45
City-wise
Ahmedabad
7.6
0.27
6.7
0.46
8.9
0.37
7.8
0.45
8.5
0.48
8.3
0.61
Bengaluru
6.8
0.22
5.7
0.14
8.2
0.23
7.3
0.33
8.8
0.25
8.2
0.35
Bhopal
8.8
0.43
7.1
0.77
10.4
0.61
10.1
0.71
9.8
0.59
10.1
0.78
Bhubaneswar
9
0.42
8.9
1.22
10.9
0.46
10.5
0.53
10.7
0.73
10
1
Chennai
8.9
0.32
9.4
0.61
9.7
0.47
10.1
0.66
10.7
0.56
12.3
0.64
Delhi
8.8
0.21
8.7
0.3
9.5
0.23
9.8
0.47
9.6
0.24
10.1
0.31
Guwahati
9.2
0.52
9.9
0.39
9.6
0.63
10.4
0.69
9.5
0.73
10.7
0.98
Hyderabad
7.8
0.28
7.1
0.27
9.2
0.31
8.5
0.32
9.4
0.42
9.9
0.44
Jaipur
7.9
0.51
7.6
0.6
8.4
0.56
7.8
0.64
7.5
0.71
7.8
0.94
Jammu
9.7
1.37
9.2
1.36
9.2
1.14
9.2
2
8.7
1.67
8.8
2.52
Kolkata
11
0.35
10.5
0.22
11.8
0.35
11.9
1.03
11.6
0.35
12.2
1.02
Lucknow
9
0.46
8.8
0.75
9.7
0.51
9.3
0.71
9.3
0.45
9
0.72
Mumbai
9
0.26
8.3
0.23
9.8
0.29
9.6
0.44
9.3
0.39
10.1
0.32
Nagpur
8
0.42
7.5
0.71
9.2
0.47
8.5
0.65
9.2
0.74
9.9
0.79
Patna
6.8
0.23
6.7
0.36
7.4
0.3
7.4
0.44
7.2
0.39
7.6
0.39
Thiruvananthapuram
7.4
0.6
6.1
0.67
8.6
0.63
7.7
0.57
10.3
0.63
10.2
0.71
Chandigarh
10.6
0.53
10
0.37
10.8
0.48
10.4
0.27
10.8
0.55
10.6
0.42
Ranchi
8.9
0.41
8.3
0.33
9.1
0.39
8.6
0.31
8.4
0.65
9
0.78
Raipur
10.1
0.66
10.2
0.54
11
0.62
10.9
0.64
10.7
0.9
11.6
1.31
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
Current Perception
Three Months ahead Expectation
One Year ahead Expectation
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Mean
Median
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Sep-23
9
0.09
8.4
0.11
9.7
0.09
9.1
0.17
9.3
0.11
9.9
0.17
Mar-24
8.7
0.09
8.1
0.13
9.6
0.09
9
0.16
9.5
0.1
9.8
0.19
May-24
8.7
0.1
8
0.13
9.8
0.1
9.2
0.19
9.6
0.12
9.9
0.19
Jul-24
8.9
0.09
8.2
0.12
9.8
0.1
9.4
0.24
9.8
0.11
10.1
0.09
Sep-24
8.6
0.09
8.1
0.13
9.6
0.1
9.2
0.23
9.6
0.12
10
0.14
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended
Food
Non-Food
Households durables
Housing
Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-23
62
64.3
60.7
63.2
66.3
Mar-24
65.4
66.1
61.2
64.6
66.8
May-24
67.4
67.2
63.2
67.2
68
Jul-24
66.3
66.2
61.7
66.3
68.4
Sep-24
66
66.4
61.6
65.6
67.5
One Year Ahead
Sep-23
69.8
71.2
66.8
72.2
71.5
Mar-24
74.6
73.6
68.3
75
74.2
May-24
76.1
74.5
69.5
76.8
75
Jul-24
76.3
74.6
69.6
77.1
76.2
Sep-24
78.8
75.1
68.7
77.9
75.9
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)
<1
1-<2
2-<3
3-<4
4-<5
5-<6
6-<7
7-<8
8-<9
9-<10
10-<11
11-<12
12-<13
13-<14
14-<15
15-<16
>=16
No idea
Total
<1
5
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
1-<2
2
27
18
5
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
56
2-<3
0
3
111
81
30
8
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
238
3-<4
0
6
19
119
59
49
17
27
1
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
300
4-<5
1
2
9
17
133
92
62
10
11
1
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
343
5-<6
1
2
18
31
41
444
132
157
73
5
79
6
1
0
0
12
1
1
1004
6-<7
0
1
2
6
6
9
205
113
87
20
26
2
8
6
1
15
8
0
515
7-<8
0
0
1
1
6
15
9
232
114
54
63
2
3
1
1
0
1
0
503
8-<9
0
0
1
0
5
14
4
11
198
88
147
12
14
7
3
7
2
1
514
9-<10
0
0
1
0
0
2
0
3
3
89
73
186
14
3
3
3
12
5
397
10-<11
0
1
7
5
1
27
10
5
24
3
433
68
198
51
18
193
66
2
1112
11-<12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
12
42
0
7
1
0
83
12-<13
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
2
0
2
3
34
12
31
25
2
0
114
13-<14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
0
9
6
0
20
14-<15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
5
1
3
0
12
15-<16
0
0
1
0
1
4
0
2
0
0
5
1
0
0
0
84
107
0
205
>=16
0
3
1
0
2
4
1
0
2
0
29
0
3
0
2
16
582
8
653
Total
9
45
189
268
287
670
441
562
515
260
863
304
289
128
64
372
791
19
6076
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)
<1
1-<2
2-<3
3-<4
4-<5
5-<6
6-<7
7-<8
8-<9
9-<10
10-<11
11-<12
12-<13
13-<14
14-<15
15-<16
>=16
No idea
Total
<1
2
0
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
1-<2
8
14
17
11
0
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
56
2-<3
49
3
39
53
50
27
7
2
1
0
4
0
0
1
0
0
0
2
238
3-<4
47
1
6
50
43
69
35
7
23
4
12
1
2
0
0
0
0
0
300
4-<5
55
1
3
5
61
75
61
34
30
4
7
1
4
0
0
1
1
0
343
5-<6
143
2
7
13
17
230
106
150
103
34
138
6
13
3
0
27
10
2
1004
6-<7
53
1
0
2
3
8
100
81
94
44
65
6
25
4
1
16
12
0
515
7-<8
47
0
2
1
1
9
2
125
79
81
98
11
27
3
4
10
3
0
503
8-<9
54
0
1
1
3
4
3
4
109
54
142
25
73
8
6
16
10
1
514
9-<10
13
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
19
33
71
38
152
29
6
15
13
4
397
10-<11
88
0
1
4
1
15
1
4
10
31
234
47
176
42
36
239
180
3
1112
11-<12
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
11
10
36
5
3
0
83
12-<13
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
0
22
9
35
30
6
0
114
13-<14
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
9
7
0
20
14-<15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
3
1
6
0
12
15-<16
15
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
3
0
1
0
0
57
124
1
205
>=16
57
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
24
0
0
0
1
15
547
5
653
Total
645
23
79
141
179
446
315
413
470
287
803
148
506
112
128
441
922
18
6076
1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.
2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.
3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 08, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.
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