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Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of July 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during July 1-12, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 5,197 valid responses.

Highlights:

  1. Households’ median perception of current inflation declined by 50 basis points (bps) to 7.2 per cent, vis-à-vis May 2025 round; their inflation expectations for the next three months and one year moderated by 60 bps and 50 bps respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].

  2. For both short term and one year ahead, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in general prices and inflation has come down [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

  3. Price and inflationary pressures eased across major product groups including food products, non-food items and expenses related to housing [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Chart 1a & 1b

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-24 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-25 Jul-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 82.3 0.77 81.6 0.79 80.7 0.87 80.5 0.86 79.5 1.22
Price increase more than current rate 60.5 1.13 57.9 1.11 54.7 1.15 54.4 1.24 52.7 1.58
Price increase similar to current rate 17.3 0.86 19.2 0.86 20.8 0.86 22 0.92 24 1.42
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.48 4.4 0.44 5.2 0.47 4.1 0.42 2.8 0.39
No changes in prices 14.6 0.71 16.5 0.76 17.3 0.84 17.5 0.83 18.4 1.18
Decline in prices 3.1 0.37 2 0.29 2 0.27 2 0.3 2.1 0.35
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.2 0.7 83.2 0.77 83.1 0.77 82.8 0.79 80 1.36
Price increase more than current rate 62.1 1.03 59.3 1.03 57.8 1.09 55.8 1.11 53.1 1.6
Price increase similar to current rate 16 0.75 17.3 0.78 18.3 0.79 17.7 0.8 23.8 1.37
Price increase less than current rate 6.1 0.52 6.7 0.53 7 0.54 9.3 0.62 3.1 0.41
No changes in prices 10.2 0.57 11.5 0.66 12.2 0.69 11.9 0.66 15.9 1.3
Decline in prices 5.6 0.47 5.3 0.45 4.7 0.4 5.4 0.45 4.1 0.47
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 77 0.81 75.2 0.86 75.6 0.89 75.3 0.92 74.3 1.33
Price increase more than current rate 54.5 1.1 52.5 1.04 53.3 1.07 51.5 1.14 50.6 1.45
Price increase similar to current rate 16.2 0.79 16.8 0.74 15.3 0.74 17.5 0.75 20.2 1.23
Price increase less than current rate 6.2 0.52 6 0.47 7 0.54 6.2 0.5 3.5 0.42
No changes in prices 17.6 0.74 20.4 0.79 20.2 0.82 20.2 0.83 21.8 1.27
Decline in prices 5.4 0.48 4.4 0.4 4.2 0.39 4.6 0.4 3.9 0.46
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 68.2 0.97 67 0.99 66.7 0.98 66.3 1.01 67.4 1.14
Price increase more than current rate 49.6 1.09 46.9 1.09 45.2 1.11 45.5 1.12 46.6 1.28
Price increase similar to current rate 13.9 0.73 14.7 0.71 15.8 0.74 15.3 0.69 17.5 0.98
Price increase less than current rate 4.7 0.44 5.4 0.45 5.8 0.51 5.5 0.46 3.2 0.38
No changes in prices 23.4 0.88 25.3 0.92 24.6 0.9 26.6 0.94 25.9 1.05
Decline in prices 8.4 0.58 7.8 0.5 8.6 0.52 7.1 0.5 6.7 0.57
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 78.6 0.84 78.5 0.91 78 0.88 78.3 0.93 77.7 1.1
Price increase more than current rate 59.6 1.07 58 1.1 56.5 1.09 57.1 1.16 55.5 1.32
Price increase similar to current rate 14.8 0.78 15.6 0.75 16 0.73 16.7 0.75 19.7 1.11
Price increase less than current rate 4.1 0.45 4.9 0.44 5.4 0.48 4.4 0.41 2.5 0.38
No changes in prices 18.2 0.78 18.3 0.87 19.1 0.84 19.1 0.88 19.1 1.04
Decline in prices 3.2 0.37 3.2 0.36 2.9 0.34 2.6 0.31 3.2 0.41
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 71 0.95 68.4 0.99 69.3 0.98 69.9 0.97 71.7 1.11
Price increase more than current rate 52.7 1.12 48.2 1.1 49 1.1 49.7 1.13 50.7 1.42
Price increase similar to current rate 13.6 0.7 14.9 0.74 14.9 0.71 15.9 0.73 17.6 1.11
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.46 5.4 0.45 5.3 0.46 4.3 0.41 3.3 0.41
No changes in prices 25.3 0.9 28.4 0.96 27.8 0.95 28 0.97 25.6 1.07
Decline in prices 3.7 0.38 3.1 0.36 3 0.34 2.1 0.27 2.8 0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
 
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-24 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-25 Jul-25
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 90.6 0.6 90.6 0.62 89.7 0.67 89.2 0.68 88.1 1.15
Price increase more than current rate 68.6 1.12 68.7 1.06 65.4 1.12 64.7 1.18 63.2 1.73
Price increase similar to current rate 18.3 0.86 18.1 0.87 19.7 0.88 21.5 0.97 20.1 1.4
Price increase less than current rate 3.7 0.43 3.8 0.43 4.6 0.44 3 0.38 4.9 0.64
No changes in prices 6.6 0.5 7.4 0.55 8.4 0.62 8.8 0.61 9.8 1.11
Decline in prices 2.9 0.35 2 0.29 1.9 0.27 2 0.26 2.1 0.35
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 87.1 0.65 88.8 0.65 87.9 0.66 87 0.66 84.8 1.18
Price increase more than current rate 63.5 1.09 63.5 1.1 60.8 1.09 59.2 1.1 57.9 1.66
Price increase similar to current rate 19 0.84 19.7 0.89 21.1 0.83 20.3 0.86 23.7 1.46
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.48 5.6 0.51 6.1 0.49 7.5 0.57 3.2 0.41
No changes in prices 7.9 0.52 7.7 0.55 8.9 0.58 10 0.58 11.6 1.12
Decline in prices 5 0.43 3.5 0.36 3.2 0.33 3 0.32 3.6 0.42
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 82.9 0.77 83.3 0.78 82.6 0.78 81.9 0.78 80.7 1.23
Price increase more than current rate 61.2 1.12 59.4 1.16 56.7 1.11 55.8 1.12 55.2 1.66
Price increase similar to current rate 16.9 0.8 18.6 0.84 20 0.83 20.7 0.8 22.3 1.41
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.46 5.2 0.46 6 0.5 5.4 0.46 3.1 0.44
No changes in prices 12.4 0.64 13.2 0.69 13.9 0.71 15.2 0.73 15.7 1.17
Decline in prices 4.7 0.44 3.6 0.37 3.5 0.35 2.9 0.32 3.6 0.44
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 77.4 0.83 76.3 0.9 75.4 0.9 77 0.89 77.7 1.53
Price increase more than current rate 56.6 1.12 54.3 1.13 51.9 1.12 54.8 1.12 56.2 1.63
Price increase similar to current rate 16.1 0.76 17 0.8 17.9 0.78 17.8 0.79 18.3 1.13
Price increase less than current rate 4.8 0.49 5 0.47 5.6 0.46 4.4 0.4 3.2 0.41
No changes in prices 16.3 0.73 18 0.82 17.9 0.78 17.9 0.81 18.7 1.49
Decline in prices 6.3 0.48 5.6 0.43 6.6 0.48 5.1 0.41 3.6 0.42
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 88.2 0.66 88.7 0.66 88.3 0.67 88.2 0.69 87.8 0.78
Price increase more than current rate 66.6 1.05 67.6 1.05 66.5 1.03 65.9 1.06 64.8 1.44
Price increase similar to current rate 17.7 0.8 17 0.8 17.6 0.8 18.5 0.82 20.1 1.24
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.43 4.1 0.45 4.2 0.39 3.8 0.4 2.8 0.37
No changes in prices 8.6 0.55 8.8 0.59 9.3 0.6 9.7 0.63 9.3 0.7
Decline in prices 3.2 0.36 2.5 0.31 2.3 0.3 2.1 0.27 3 0.39
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 83.4 0.76 81.9 0.85 82.4 0.79 83 0.77 84.8 0.85
Price increase more than current rate 61.6 1.17 58.8 1.15 59.4 1.07 59.9 1.12 61.5 1.45
Price increase similar to current rate 17.4 0.82 18.2 0.82 17.6 0.79 18.2 0.77 20.1 1.24
Price increase less than current rate 4.4 0.45 5 0.47 5.4 0.45 4.8 0.44 3.2 0.41
No changes in prices 13.2 0.67 15.5 0.79 15 0.74 15 0.75 12.5 0.79
Decline in prices 3.4 0.39 2.6 0.33 2.6 0.31 2 0.26 2.7 0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
 
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jul-25
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9 0.39
Gender-wise                        
Male 8.1 0.16 7.3 0.3 9 0.17 8.4 0.31 8.6 0.2 8.6 0.41
Female 8.1 0.16 7.2 0.34 8.9 0.17 8.5 0.36 8.7 0.2 9.1 0.48
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 8.1 0.44 7.2 0.73 9 0.44 8.8 0.83 8.9 0.51 8.7 0.93
Other Employees 8.1 0.24 7.3 0.39 9 0.26 8.3 0.5 8.9 0.3 9.3 0.63
Self Employed 8.5 0.21 7.8 0.4 9.4 0.22 8.8 0.51 8.7 0.26 8.9 0.59
Homemaker 8.1 0.18 7.1 0.42 8.9 0.18 8.4 0.41 8.8 0.22 9.1 0.52
Retired Persons 8.6 0.33 8.8 0.9 9.3 0.35 9.5 0.85 9.3 0.41 10.1 0.62
Daily Workers 7.7 0.33 6 0.39 8.7 0.32 7.8 0.55 8.2 0.41 8.1 0.78
Other category 7.3 0.21 6.2 0.28 8.2 0.22 7.1 0.3 8.2 0.26 7.8 0.45
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.5 0.21 6.2 0.28 8.5 0.22 7.5 0.33 8.5 0.24 8.4 0.5
25 to 30 years 7.8 0.19 7.1 0.42 8.7 0.21 8.2 0.41 8.9 0.25 9.3 0.48
30 to 35 years 8.1 0.23 7.4 0.49 9 0.25 8.4 0.5 8.6 0.28 8.8 0.6
35 to 40 years 8.2 0.23 7.4 0.42 9 0.24 8.3 0.5 9 0.26 9.1 0.53
40 to 45 years 8.2 0.23 7 0.6 9.1 0.24 8.4 0.51 8.7 0.28 8.9 0.69
45 to 50 years 8.5 0.26 8.1 0.48 9.3 0.27 9.5 0.6 9 0.3 9.7 0.59
50 to 55 years 8.8 0.31 8.1 0.51 9.6 0.31 9.5 0.51 9.3 0.35 9.8 0.62
55 to 60 years 8.2 0.31 7 0.68 8.9 0.32 8.1 0.63 8.7 0.38 8.7 0.8
60 years and above 8.6 0.3 8.1 0.78 9.5 0.32 9.6 0.79 8.9 0.37 9.6 0.8
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 6 0.63 5.5 0.24 6.2 0.71 5.6 0.34 6.1 0.89 5.4 0.79
Bengaluru 6.9 0.33 5.6 0.14 8 0.41 6.4 0.46 8.4 0.53 7.4 0.61
Bhopal 9.4 0.45 9.2 0.84 11 0.53 10.7 0.89 10.8 0.78 11.2 1.57
Bhubaneswar 6.7 0.39 5.8 0.37 7.9 0.52 8 1.86 8 0.69 8.5 1.47
Chennai 7.1 0.4 6.6 1.03 8.2 0.5 8 1.18 8.1 0.69 8.9 1.57
Delhi 8.5 0.36 8.1 0.98 9.2 0.36 9.1 0.99 8.5 0.44 9 0.93
Guwahati 8.7 0.75 8 0.8 9.3 0.71 8.4 0.85 9.7 1.01 9.8 0.8
Hyderabad 8.2 0.43 7.7 0.61 9.3 0.43 9 0.55 10.5 0.48 10.5 0.32
Jaipur 6.7 0.92 5.6 1.02 7.2 1.04 6.2 1.38 6.6 1.27 5.6 1.82
Jammu 12.4 1.41 14.1 2.11 9.6 0.81 9.2 2.13 8.4 0.83 6.3 1.6
Kolkata 8.7 0.36 9.5 1.07 9.2 0.38 10.1 0.56 8.5 0.39 9.7 0.93
Lucknow 8.3 0.42 8.3 0.98 9.4 0.44 9.5 0.71 9.6 0.56 10.1 0.61
Mumbai 9.2 0.27 8.4 0.34 10.3 0.28 10 0.37 9.7 0.38 10.3 0.45
Nagpur 7.6 0.37 6.8 0.47 8.5 0.38 7.9 0.42 8.4 0.72 8.6 0.92
Patna 7.7 0.69 6.6 1.17 9.2 0.89 7.9 1.76 9.6 0.99 8.5 1.78
Thiruvananthapuram 7.5 0.4 6.8 1.39 8 0.42 7.9 1.1 8.8 0.41 8.4 0.95
Chandigarh 9 0.98 8.6 1.47 9.6 0.97 9.2 1.64 9.6 1.16 9.4 2
Ranchi 7.9 0.86 7.5 1.52 8.8 1.05 8.1 1.57 8.5 1.15 8.2 1.83
Raipur 9 0.73 9.3 1.1 10.2 0.66 10.4 1.2 9.8 0.75 10.6 0.86
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
 
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.1 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Jan-25 8.8 0.08 8.3 0.11 9.8 0.09 9.3 0.23 9.9 0.11 10.2 0.07
Mar-25 8.5 0.08 7.8 0.11 9.5 0.08 8.9 0.13 9.4 0.11 9.7 0.23
May-25 8.4 0.08 7.7 0.12 9.5 0.09 8.9 0.12 9.4 0.11 9.5 0.25
Jul-25 8.1 0.12 7.2 0.26 8.9 0.13 8.3 0.26 8.7 0.17 9.0 0.39
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
 
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
Jan-25 66.2 66.2 61.1 65.3 66
Mar-25 64.4 67.6 60.1 65 68.8
May-25 63.5 64.8 60.4 63.6 67.4
Jul-25 65.9 70.5 48.7 50.9 62.7
One Year Ahead
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
Jan-25 75.3 73.1 67.8 75.3 73.9
Mar-25 74.3 72.7 67 75.4 76.9
May-25 74.4 70.5 68.6 72.7 75.4
Jul-25 81.6 78.1 69.5 61.9 61.8
 
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 32 13 8 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 67
1-<2 8 48 36 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109
2-<3 2 9 106 41 20 7 1 1 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 195
3-<4 1 6 16 154 40 35 23 16 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 299
4-<5 0 1 14 11 206 126 34 16 7 1 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 422
5-<6 1 1 9 22 15 611 163 150 62 2 51 1 3 0 0 4 2 0 1097
6-<7 1 0 1 1 2 5 135 64 48 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 266
7-<8 0 0 0 2 3 12 6 115 61 46 29 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 285
8-<9 0 0 0 1 1 6 4 1 88 97 152 13 8 2 2 6 2 0 383
9-<10 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 0 38 44 18 5 1 1 2 1 0 121
10-<11 1 0 2 0 1 12 5 1 3 2 470 76 306 28 12 103 44 0 1066
11-<12 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 19 8 4 1 3 1 0 40
12-<13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 73 8 73 15 6 0 176
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 4 1 0 15
14-<15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 13 6 4 0 24
15-<16 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 92 69 0 170
>=16 2 0 2 2 1 7 0 1 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 3 434 0 462
Total 48 78 195 248 294 831 377 371 271 190 767 133 422 50 109 241 570 2 5197
 
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 41 3 6 4 3 3 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 67
1-<2 23 23 17 17 9 9 5 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 109
2-<3 40 8 68 21 17 20 3 0 2 1 5 0 5 0 1 2 2 0 195
3-<4 51 8 8 78 19 65 12 11 4 2 9 5 7 6 5 9 0 0 299
4-<5 62 1 6 0 120 109 43 25 17 2 9 4 12 3 4 5 0 0 422
5-<6 127 2 5 7 3 370 109 141 87 29 142 4 15 4 4 40 8 0 1097
6-<7 30 0 3 1 2 0 81 41 45 15 29 2 14 0 0 1 2 0 266
7-<8 35 0 0 3 0 3 1 72 31 34 46 9 31 3 2 7 8 0 285
8-<9 27 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 62 37 140 21 28 12 3 42 10 0 383
9-<10 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 29 39 5 13 3 6 4 5 0 121
10-<11 72 0 1 0 0 10 1 1 1 0 363 24 297 25 14 143 114 0 1066
11-<12 2 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 0 0 4 6 4 4 3 5 4 0 40
12-<13 27 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 1 0 25 7 67 25 12 0 176
13-<14 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 3 3 1 0 15
14-<15 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 3 5 0 24
15-<16 6 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 60 79 0 170
>=16 54 0 0 2 0 39 0 1 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 0 328 0 462
Total 618 45 116 134 173 668 255 295 250 150 837 80 451 70 123 350 582 0 5197

1 The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2 All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

3 Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on June 06, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

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