Industrial Outlook Survey: Q3: 2012-13 (Round 60)

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Published on January 28, 2013

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Industrial Outlook Survey: Q3: 2012-13 (Round 60)

The Industrial Outlook Survey conducted in Q3:2012-13, the 60th round in the series, gives assessment of business situation of companies in the manufacturing sector for Q3:2012-13 and their expectations for the ensuing quarter Q4:2012-13. The survey elicited response from 1,388 (response rate about 70 per cent) manufacturing companies.

Highlights:

The assessment of major demand side parameters, viz: production, capacity utilisation, exports and imports for Q3:2012-13, measured by net responses of the companies, remained positive but marginally lower as compared to those in the previous quarter.
On the other hand, the outlook of demand conditions for Q4:2012-13 improved, with the exception of imports.
Net response for order books improved marginally in Q3:2012-13 from a quarter ago, but remained lower as compared to the corresponding quarter of previous year.
Majority of the respondents reported no change in the level of raw material and finished goods inventories in both the assessment and expectation quarters.
The level of optimism on overall financial situation remained broadly the same as compared with the previous quarter.
Net response on availability of finance moderated for both the quarters.
Both cost of external finance and cost of raw materials were perceived to rise, but by a lower proportion of respondents as compared to a quarter and a year ago.
The assessment and expectation on profit margin remained more or less balanced for Q3:2012-13 and Q4:2012-13, respectively.
The Business Expectation Index (BEI), a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter, increased marginally to 104.5 for Q3:2012-13 from 103.8 in the previous quarter.
The index, however, remained broadly at the same level for Q4:2012-13 (115.6 from 115.7).
The BEI for both the assessment quarter and the expectation quarter have persisted in the growth terrain, i.e. above 100, which is the threshold separating contraction from expansion.

Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	49.0	12.5	38.5	36.5	48.8	8.8	42.3	40.0
Q1: 2010-11	1092	48.4	13.0	38.6	35.4	45.8	9.9	44.3	35.9
Q2: 2010-11	1403	51.6	11.6	36.8	40.0	49.7	9.4	40.9	40.2
Q3: 2010-11	1561	53.9	10.0	36.0	43.9	55.9	6.8	37.3	49.1
Q4: 2010-11	1524	52.1	10.7	37.1	41.4	55.4	6.8	37.7	48.6
Q1: 2011-12	1504	47.8	15.7	36.5	32.1	49.1	9.1	41.8	40.0
Q2: 2011-12	1528	40.8	18.3	40.9	22.6	49.6	9.0	41.5	40.6
Q3: 2011-12	1450	42.2	16.9	41.0	25.3	49.5	9.5	41.0	39.9
Q4: 2011-12	1234	45.6	12.5	41.9	33.1	49.8	9.5	40.7	40.4
Q1: 2012-13	1404	38.8	18.5	42.7	20.3	45.4	10.6	44.0	34.7
Q2: 2012-13	1561	37.9	19.2	42.9	18.8	45.4	11.7	42.9	33.6
Q3: 2012-13	1388	37.5	18.8	43.7	18.6	46.1	10.4	43.4	35.7
Q4: 2012-13						46.3	9.2	44.4	37.1
#Due to rounding off, percentage may not add up to 100. This is applicable for all the tables. ‘Increase’ in production is optimistic.

Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order books
(Percentage responses)#
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	43.5	11.6	44.9	31.9	44.8	9.1	46.1	35.8
Q1: 2010-11	1092	41.8	10.5	47.7	31.3	42.3	8.9	48.8	33.4
Q2: 2010-11	1403	45.4	9.3	45.3	36.1	44.4	8.1	47.5	36.3
Q3: 2010-11	1561	46.9	9.1	44.0	37.9	49.8	5.1	45.1	44.8
Q4: 2010-11	1524	44.8	10.1	45.2	34.7	49.6	5.6	44.8	44.0
Q1: 2011-12	1504	42.5	14.4	43.0	28.1	45.9	7.5	46.6	38.4
Q2: 2011-12	1528	37.9	17.6	44.5	20.3	45.4	9.4	45.2	35.9
Q3: 2011-12	1450	36.9	18.5	44.6	18.4	43.5	10.1	46.4	33.4
Q4: 2011-12	1234	38.9	14.1	47.0	24.8	42.3	11.0	46.7	31.3
Q1: 2012-13	1404	34.2	17.3	48.5	16.9	39.3	9.8	50.9	29.5
Q2: 2012-13	1561	31.9	19.8	48.3	12.0	41.0	11.1	47.9	29.9
Q3: 2012-13	1388	32.0	19.2	48.8	12.9	41.2	10.9	48.0	30.3
Q4: 2012-13						40.0	10.2	49.8	29.8
‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic.

Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Below Normal	Above Normal	Normal	Net response	Below Normal	Above Normal	Normal	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	15.5	6.7	77.8	8.8	12.2	6.5	81.3	5.7
Q1: 2010-11	1092	14.3	7.4	78.3	6.9	12.9	6.4	80.7	6.5
Q2: 2010-11	1403	12.0	6.9	81.1	5.1	11.4	7.3	81.3	4.2
Q3: 2010-11	1561	11.6	7.6	80.8	3.9	8.8	7.3	83.9	1.5
Q4: 2010-11	1524	12.5	6.9	80.6	5.5	9.8	8.1	82.1	1.7
Q1: 2011-12	1504	13.3	6.7	80.0	6.5	10.4	6.6	83.0	3.9
Q2: 2011-12	1528	18.0	4.7	77.3	13.3	11.8	7.2	81.0	4.5
Q3: 2011-12	1450	17.5	5.0	77.5	12.6	13.6	6.0	80.4	7.6
Q4: 2011-12	1234	15.9	5.4	78.7	10.5	13.7	6.5	79.8	7.3
Q1: 2012-13	1404	17.0	5.7	77.3	11.3	13.3	4.6	82.1	8.8
Q2: 2012-13	1561	18.7	5.6	75.7	13.1	14.6	6.2	79.2	8.4
Q3: 2012-13	1388	18.8	4.4	76.8	14.3	14.4	7.0	78.6	7.4
Q4: 2012-13						14.6	4.5	80.9	10.1
Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic.

Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation
(Percentage responses) #
Parameter	Options	Assessment for Quarter		Expectations for Quarter
Parameter	Options	Q2:2012-13	Q3:2012-13	Q3:2012-13	Q4:2012-13
Capacity Utilisation (main product)	Increase	24.0	23.3	30.4	31.1
	No Change	58.3	59.0	59.3	59.6
	Decrease	17.7	17.6	10.3	9.3
	Net Response	6.3	5.7	20.0	21.7
Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)	Above normal	9.7	9.1	10.3	10.7
	Normal	71.3	70.9	77.4	76.6
	Below Normal	18.9	20.0	12.3	12.7
	Net Response	-9.2	-10.8	-2.0	-2.1
Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)	More than adequate	13.1	14.2	13.0	13.0
	Adequate	79.0	77.5	80.5	79.6
	Less than adequate	7.9	8.3	6.4	7.4
	Net Response	5.2	5.9	6.6	5.6
‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic.

Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Exports
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	28.9	16.2	54.9	12.7	31.2	11.0	57.8	20.2
Q1: 2010-11	1092	29.1	13.7	57.2	15.3	30.0	11.5	58.5	18.5
Q2: 2010-11	1403	31.8	11.8	56.5	20.0	30.8	10.1	59.1	20.7
Q3: 2010-11	1561	34.4	11.4	54.2	23.1	34.4	8.3	57.3	26.1
Q4: 2010-11	1524	32.1	13.2	54.7	18.9	34.4	8.1	57.5	26.3
Q1: 2011-12	1504	31.8	13.6	54.6	18.2	33.4	9.4	57.1	24.0
Q2: 2011-12	1528	28.7	15.7	56.6	13.1	35.1	9.2	55.7	25.8
Q3: 2011-12	1450	26.8	15.3	57.9	11.5	32.7	10.6	56.8	22.1
Q4: 2011-12	1234	27.8	13.6	58.6	14.2	29.0	10.4	60.6	18.6
Q1: 2012-13	1404	25.7	14.9	59.4	10.8	30.1	9.4	60.5	20.7
Q2: 2012-13	1561	25.3	15.2	59.5	10.0	31.0	10.5	58.5	20.5
Q3: 2012-13	1388	24.3	15.0	60.6	9.3	29.0	10.9	60.1	18.0
Q4: 2012-13						28.5	10.1	61.4	18.4
‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic.

Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Import
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	25.5	8.4	66.1	17.1	23.4	6.5	70.1	16.9
Q1: 2010-11	1092	27.7	6.8	65.6	20.9	22.9	5.9	71.2	17.1
Q2: 2010-11	1403	28.6	6.6	64.7	22.0	27.0	5.4	67.6	21.7
Q3: 2010-11	1561	27.3	6.4	66.3	20.9	27.3	5.1	67.6	22.2
Q4: 2010-11	1524	27.0	7.1	65.8	19.9	26.7	5.4	67.9	21.3
Q1: 2011-12	1504	25.0	7.4	67.6	17.6	25.1	6.2	68.6	18.9
Q2: 2011-12	1528	23.3	7.6	69.2	15.7	25.1	6.1	68.9	19.0
Q3: 2011-12	1450	20.8	9.3	69.9	11.6	23.1	6.2	70.7	16.9
Q4: 2011-12	1234	22.5	8.0	69.5	14.4	23.0	7.5	69.4	15.5
Q1: 2012-13	1404	21.8	10.1	68.1	11.6	22.4	6.7	70.8	15.7
Q2: 2012-13	1561	20.7	10.9	68.5	9.8	22.9	7.4	69.7	15.5
Q3: 2012-13	1388	19.0	10.2	70.7	8.8	22.1	8.1	69.8	14.0
Q4: 2012-13						20.9	7.4	71.7	13.5
‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic.

Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods)
(Percentage responses) #
Parameter	Options	Assessment for Quarter		Expectations for Quarter
Parameter	Options	Q2:2012-13	Q3:2012-13	Q3:2012-13	Q4:2012-13
Inventory of raw material	Below average	6.9	7.6	5.1	5.5
	Average	80.9	79.8	85.2	83.9
	Above average	12.3	12.6	9.7	10.6
	Net Response	-5.4	-5.0	-4.7	-5.1
Inventory of Finished goods	Below average	7.0	7.0	6.1	7.0
	Average	78.5	78.0	83.9	83.1
	Above average	14.5	15.0	10.0	9.9
	Net Response	-7.4	-8.0	-4.0	-3.0
Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic.

Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Employment Outlook
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	21.0	7.3	71.7	13.7	18.2	6.1	75.6	12.1
Q1: 2010-11	1092	21.7	7.0	71.3	14.7	19.5	5.9	74.7	13.6
Q2: 2010-11	1403	25.1	6.3	68.6	18.7	21.8	5.1	73.1	16.8
Q3: 2010-11	1561	24.8	5.4	69.9	19.4	24.7	3.6	71.7	21.0
Q4: 2010-11	1524	24.3	5.6	70.1	18.7	25.0	4.3	70.7	20.6
Q1: 2011-12	1504	24.3	6.1	69.6	18.2	23.0	5.6	71.4	17.4
Q2: 2011-12	1528	22.7	7.1	70.2	15.6	24.0	4.6	71.5	19.4
Q3: 2011-12	1450	18.9	7.6	73.5	11.3	21.7	5.2	73.1	16.5
Q4: 2011-12	1234	19.8	6.9	73.3	12.9	19.3	5.7	75.0	13.6
Q1: 2012-13	1404	19.8	9.7	70.5	10.0	19.9	5.2	74.9	14.6
Q2: 2012-13	1561	17.9	9.6	72.5	8.3	20.5	8.3	71.2	12.3
Q3: 2012-13	1388	16.4	9.7	73.9	6.7	19.2	5.9	74.9	13.3
Q4: 2012-13						17.2	6.9	75.8	10.3
‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic.

Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	42.3	6.5	51.3	35.8	44.3	5.0	50.6	39.3
Q1: 2010-11	1092	39.1	6.9	54.0	32.2	41.6	5.3	53.1	36.3
Q2: 2010-11	1403	38.7	8.1	53.2	30.6	39.7	5.6	54.8	34.1
Q3: 2010-11	1561	42.8	5.7	51.5	37.1	44.9	5.3	49.7	39.6
Q4: 2010-11	1524	35.7	8.6	55.8	27.1	45.5	4.4	50.1	41.1
Q1: 2011-12	1504	34.5	10.4	55.0	24.1	38.6	5.2	56.1	33.4
Q2: 2011-12	1528	27.8	16.0	56.2	11.7	37.4	6.8	55.7	30.6
Q3: 2011-12	1450	28.1	16.9	55.0	11.2	35.5	9.2	55.3	26.3
Q4: 2011-12	1234	30.4	11.9	57.8	18.5	35.3	10.2	54.5	25.2
Q1: 2012-13	1404	27.8	13.5	58.7	14.2	35.7	8.1	56.2	27.7
Q2: 2012-13	1561	27.1	14.9	58.0	12.2	33.2	9.5	57.3	23.6
Q3: 2012-13	1388	26.4	13.7	59.9	12.7	34.8	9.0	56.2	25.8
Q4: 2012-13						34.9	7.9	57.2	27.0
‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic.

Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	35.8	5.3	58.9	30.5	36.8	4.0	59.2	32.7
Q1: 2010-11	1092	34.7	4.8	60.5	29.9	31.9	4.3	63.8	27.7
Q2: 2010-11	1403	35.6	6.3	58.1	29.3	35.2	4.1	60.7	31.1
Q3: 2010-11	1561	41.3	4.1	54.6	37.1	38.4	3.6	58.0	34.8
Q4: 2010-11	1524	41.0	4.1	54.9	36.9	40.7	3.0	56.3	37.8
Q1: 2011-12	1504	41.1	5.4	53.5	35.7	37.4	4.4	58.2	32.9
Q2: 2011-12	1528	36.8	5.7	57.4	31.1	38.7	5.1	56.3	33.6
Q3: 2011-12	1450	38.9	5.7	55.4	33.3	38.4	4.2	57.5	34.2
Q4: 2011-12	1234	40.0	5.1	54.8	34.9	38.0	4.2	57.8	33.8
Q1: 2012-13	1404	36.6	6.1	57.3	30.4	36.2	4.3	59.6	31.9
Q2: 2012-13	1561	37.5	6.8	55.8	30.7	34.9	4.8	60.3	30.1
Q3: 2012-13	1388	35.0	5.7	59.4	29.3	37.3	4.4	58.3	32.9
Q4: 2012-13						35.8	3.8	60.5	32.0
‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic.

Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response	Improve	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	32.1	6.4	61.5	25.7	33.7	4.5	61.8	29.2
Q1: 2010-11	1092	32.3	5.9	61.8	26.4	31.2	4.4	64.4	26.8
Q2: 2010-11	1403	32.6	6.0	61.4	26.6	32.9	4.4	62.7	28.5
Q3: 2010-11	1561	35.9	5.6	58.4	30.3	35.3	4.0	60.6	31.3
Q4: 2010-11	1524	32.1	8.3	59.6	23.8	36.4	4.0	59.6	32.3
Q1: 2011-12	1504	30.2	8.7	61.1	21.5	32.6	5.3	62.2	27.3
Q2: 2011-12	1528	24.0	12.0	64.0	12.1	30.0	5.8	64.2	24.2
Q3: 2011-12	1450	24.1	13.7	62.2	10.4	28.7	8.5	62.7	20.2
Q4: 2011-12	1234	26.1	10.3	63.5	15.8	28.2	9.1	62.7	19.0
Q1: 2012-13	1404	26.2	11.1	62.7	15.0	29.9	7.0	63.1	22.9
Q2: 2012-13	1561	25.0	11.2	63.8	13.8	28.0	7.7	64.3	20.4
Q3: 2012-13	1388	21.2	11.2	67.6	10.0	29.1	7.8	63.1	21.3
Q4: 2012-13						26.7	7.2	66.0	19.5
‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic.

Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of External Finance
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Decrease	Increase	No change	Net response	Decrease	Increase	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	7.7	23.6	68.7	-15.9	6.8	25.1	68.1	-18.3
Q1: 2010-11	1092	7.0	28.9	64.0	-21.9	6.1	26.8	67.1	-20.6
Q2: 2010-11	1403	5.0	33.2	61.8	-28.3	5.7	29.0	65.3	-23.3
Q3: 2010-11	1561	4.0	37.9	58.1	-33.9	3.8	32.1	64.2	-28.3
Q4: 2010-11	1524	3.5	46.0	50.6	-42.5	3.7	35.0	61.3	-31.3
Q1: 2011-12	1504	3.5	52.5	44.1	-49.0	3.9	38.9	57.1	-35.0
Q2: 2011-12	1528	3.5	53.7	42.9	-50.2	4.0	43.7	52.4	-39.7
Q3: 2011-12	1450	2.9	53.4	43.7	-50.6	3.4	44.4	52.2	-41.0
Q4: 2011-12	1234	3.8	41.1	55.1	-37.4	4.1	42.8	53.1	-38.8
Q1: 2012-13	1404	7.3	37.8	54.9	-30.5	9.9	32.6	57.6	-22.7
Q2: 2012-13	1561	5.8	33.1	61.1	-27.4	8.6	32.6	58.9	-24.0
Q3: 2012-13	1388	5.8	30.3	63.9	-24.4	7.6	28.1	64.3	-20.6
Q4: 2012-13						7.5	25.5	67.0	-18.1
‘Decrease’ in cost of external finance is optimistic.

Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Material
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Decrease	Increase	No change	Net response	Decrease	Increase	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	2.2	62.3	35.5	-60.2	3.6	47.9	48.5	-44.3
Q1: 2010-11	1092	2.5	65.2	32.3	-62.7	2.2	50.8	47.0	-48.6
Q2: 2010-11	1403	3.5	61.8	34.7	-58.3	2.7	52.0	45.2	-49.3
Q3: 2010-11	1561	2.4	66.3	31.3	-63.9	3.3	52.6	44.1	-49.3
Q4: 2010-11	1524	1.7	73.7	24.6	-71.9	2.3	55.9	41.8	-53.6
Q1: 2011-12	1504	4.5	70.0	25.6	-65.5	2.5	59.5	38.0	-57.0
Q2: 2011-12	1528	5.3	63.3	31.4	-58.1	4.8	56.6	38.6	-51.7
Q3: 2011-12	1450	5.1	66.3	28.7	-61.2	3.7	53.4	42.9	-49.7
Q4: 2011-12	1234	3.4	62.7	33.9	-59.4	4.0	54.1	41.9	-50.1
Q1: 2012-13	1404	3.1	66.2	30.7	-63.1	2.2	51.2	46.5	-49.0
Q2: 2012-13	1561	3.0	62.6	34.4	-59.6	3.5	54.9	41.6	-51.4
Q3: 2012-13	1388	5.4	56.2	38.4	-50.7	3.5	52.1	44.3	-48.6
Q4: 2012-13						3.3	48.3	48.3	-45.0
‘Decrease’ in cost of raw material is optimistic.

Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	24.6	12.2	63.2	12.4	20.7	10.9	68.4	9.8
Q1: 2010-11	1092	29.3	12.0	58.6	17.3	22.4	9.1	68.5	13.3
Q2: 2010-11	1403	28.0	14.2	57.8	13.8	24.4	9.2	66.3	15.2
Q3: 2010-11	1561	30.2	10.0	59.8	20.2	25.7	8.7	65.5	17.0
Q4: 2010-11	1524	35.7	9.2	55.1	26.5	26.7	8.1	65.2	18.6
Q1: 2011-12	1504	35.0	13.4	51.6	21.5	30.6	7.0	62.4	23.7
Q2: 2011-12	1528	27.3	16.6	56.1	10.7	29.1	10.7	60.2	18.3
Q3: 2011-12	1450	24.6	15.7	59.7	8.9	26.8	10.8	62.4	16.0
Q4: 2011-12	1234	25.1	11.6	63.3	13.5	25.0	10.3	64.7	14.7
Q1: 2012-13	1404	28.0	10.5	61.4	17.5	26.3	7.3	66.4	19.0
Q2: 2012-13	1561	29.3	10.9	59.8	18.5	27.8	9.0	63.2	18.8
Q3: 2012-13	1388	22.5	12.3	65.1	10.2	25.6	8.3	66.1	17.3
Q4: 2012-13						22.8	7.0	70.2	15.8
‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic.

Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response	Increase	Decrease	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	21.7	24.6	53.9	-2.9	21.1	20.1	58.8	1.1
Q1: 2010-11	1092	20.2	25.0	54.9	-4.8	22.1	18.9	59.0	3.2
Q2: 2010-11	1403	21.3	23.9	54.8	-2.5	22.2	19.1	58.7	3.1
Q3: 2010-11	1561	22.7	23.1	54.2	-0.4	25.2	16.1	58.7	9.2
Q4: 2010-11	1524	20.8	25.1	54.1	-4.3	25.6	17.2	57.2	8.3
Q1: 2011-12	1504	18.2	28.1	53.6	-9.9	22.2	18.4	59.4	3.8
Q2: 2011-12	1528	15.2	32.3	52.5	-17.1	22.0	19.5	58.5	2.5
Q3: 2011-12	1450	15.2	32.5	52.4	-17.3	20.3	21.9	57.8	-1.6
Q4: 2011-12	1234	17.5	28.7	53.8	-11.3	20.1	23.1	56.8	-2.9
Q1: 2012-13	1404	15.4	33.3	51.3	-17.9	20.4	21.6	58.0	-1.2
Q2: 2012-13	1561	16.2	31.2	52.6	-15.1	20.1	23.6	56.3	-3.6
Q3: 2012-13	1388	14.5	31.2	54.2	-16.7	20.5	21.8	57.7	-1.3
Q4: 2012-13						18.8	20.8	60.4	-2.0
‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic.

Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation
(Percentage responses) #
Survey Quarter	Total response	Assessment for Current Quarter				Expectation for Next Quarter
Survey Quarter	Total response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response	Better	Worsen	No change	Net response
Q4: 2009-10	1079	50.5	7.4	42.1	43.1	50.4	5.5	44.2	44.9
Q1: 2010-11	1092	47.8	7.1	45.0	40.7	47.3	6.1	46.6	41.2
Q2: 2010-11	1403	46.7	8.0	45.3	38.7	47.6	6.2	46.2	41.5
Q3: 2010-11	1561	51.4	5.5	43.1	45.9	52.5	5.1	42.4	47.4
Q4: 2010-11	1524	46.0	7.4	46.6	38.6	54.2	4.1	41.8	50.1
Q1: 2011-12	1504	42.8	10.1	47.1	32.6	47.0	5.6	47.4	41.4
Q2: 2011-12	1528	34.1	15.4	50.5	18.7	46.6	6.8	46.6	39.8
Q3: 2011-12	1450	35.2	17.5	47.3	17.7	43.1	8.0	48.9	35.2
Q4: 2011-12	1234	37.8	11.3	50.9	26.5	43.6	10.0	46.5	33.6
Q1: 2012-13	1404	32.9	14.6	52.5	18.3	43.0	8.1	49.0	34.9
Q2: 2012-13	1561	32.8	16.7	50.5	16.1	40.2	9.7	50.1	30.6
Q3: 2012-13	1388	32.3	15.0	52.7	17.2	41.4	9.2	49.4	32.2
Q4: 2012-13						44.8	7.2	48.0	37.5
‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic.

Table 17: Business Expectation Index
Quarter	Assessment			Expectations
Quarter	Index	Change over previous quarter	Change over previous year	Index	Change over previous quarter	Change over previous year
Q1: 2004-05	118.4	-3.0	8.6	121.5	-0.7	3.7
Q2: 2004-05	116.9	-1.5	2.6	120.0	-1.5	2.9
Q3: 2004-05	122.0	5.1	2.2	121.5	1.5	-0.6
Q4: 2004-05	122.5	0.5	1.1	123.2	1.7	1.0
Q1: 2005-06	117.5	-5.0	-0.9	120.7	-2.5	-0.8
Q2: 2005-06	114.9	-2.6	-2.0	119.6	-1.1	-0.4
Q3: 2005-06	124.3	9.4	2.3	122.7	3.1	1.2
Q4: 2005-06	120.7	-3.6	-1.8	125.7	3.0	2.5
Q1: 2006-07	121.8	1.1	4.3	120.5	-5.2	-0.2
Q2: 2006-07	120.7	-1.1	5.8	126.5	6.0	6.9
Q3: 2006-07	123.9	3.2	-0.4	125.3	-1.2	2.6
Q4: 2006-07	127.7	3.8	7.0	126.5	1.2	0.8
Q1: 2007-08	115.8	-11.9	-6.0	127.5	1.0	7.0
Q2: 2007-08	118.9	3.1	-1.8	121.1	-6.4	-5.4
Q3: 2007-08	115.9	-3.0	-8.0	124.4	3.3	-0.9
Q4: 2007-08	122.8	6.9	-4.9	118.6	-5.8	-7.9
Q1: 2008-09	116.2	-6.6	0.4	123.2	4.6	-4.3
Q2: 2008-09	113.4	-2.8	-5.5	122.1	-1.1	1.0
Q3: 2008-09	104.1	-9.3	-11.8	118.9	-3.2	-5.5
Q4: 2008-09	82.6	-21.5	-40.2	111.9	-7.0	-6.7
Q1: 2009-10	99.4	16.8	-16.8	96.4	-15.5	-26.8
Q2: 2009-10	107.2	7.8	-6.2	109.9	13.5	-12.2
Q3: 2009-10	112.8	5.6	8.7	116.4	6.5	-2.5
Q4: 2009-10	118.5	5.7	35.9	120.6	4.2	8.7
Q1: 2010-11	115.9	-2.6	16.5	119.8	-0.8	23.4
Q2: 2010-11	119.0	3.1	11.8	118.8	-1.0	8.9
Q3: 2010-11	122.8	3.8	10.0	126.5	7.7	10.1
Q4: 2010-11	122.0	-0.8	3.5	125.9	-0.6	5.3
Q1: 2011-12	116.3	-5.7	0.4	121.9	-4.0	2.1
Q2: 2011-12	109.4	-6.93	-9.67	121.5	-0.4	2.7
Q3: 2011-12	110.1	0.8	-12.7	118.8	-2.7	-7.7
Q4: 2011-12	114.9	4.8	-7.1	117.2	-1.6	-8.7
Q1: 2012-13	107.4	-7.5	-8.9	116.8	-0.4	-5.1
Q2: 2012-13	103.8	-3.6	-5.5	114.0	-2.8	-7.6
Q3: 2012-13	104.5	0.7	-4.9	115.7	1.7	-3.1
Q4: 2012-13				115.6	0.0	-3.1

Table18: Outlook for important business parameters according to Industries
(Net response in per cent)
	Production		Order books		Availability of Finance		Cost of raw material		Cost of finance		Profit Margin
	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60
Food products	44.3	37.9	33.6	31.0	28.6	19.4	-58.6	-52.3	-14.7	-11.1	2.9	0.8
Textiles	28.3	30.7	30.3	27.6	11.6	7.3	-40.2	-37.7	-21.9	-15.8	0.0	-6.8
Basic Metals & Metal products	25.5	21.2	16.1	17.7	11.7	14.0	-43.1	-44.1	-21.6	-22.2	-10.9	-9.8
Electrical machinery	41.7	38.6	35.5	34.6	17.6	16.7	-46.6	-36.0	-22.0	-20.5	0.9	3.4
Other Machinery(Non-electrical machinery) & Apparatus	29.3	39.9	24.3	32.2	20.6	14.9	-50.0	-55.9	-16.0	-18.4	-11.4	-6.0
Transport Equipment	38.9	38.8	30.9	30.4	30.3	27.4	-46.8	-36.6	-16.0	-9.8	-5.5	0.0
Fertilisers	22.6	13.3	20.8	0.0	25.8	10.0	-35.5	-33.3	-31.0	-10.7	6.7	-10.3
Pharmaceuticals & Medicines	41.4	45.7	31.9	33.3	18.4	22.1	-63.0	-52.1	-19.1	-12.2	0.0	-2.1
Basic Chemicals	44.1	40.4	35.3	31.3	26.3	24.5	-48.3	-44.7	-27.7	-33.3	5.2	2.2
Rubber & Plastic products	45.1	59.4	50.6	40.0	32.6	23.6	-51.1	-44.9	-29.5	-15.5	4.3	8.5
Paper & Paper products	44.2	45.0	38.1	41.7	23.3	31.7	-42.2	-37.5	-25.0	-23.1	-2.3	-15.0
Cement	41.9	48.0	32.1	27.3	20.0	24.0	-35.5	-46.2	-10.0	-3.8	6.5	30.8
Wood & wood products	33.3	71.4	35.7	53.3	26.7	26.7	-84.6	-64.3	-40.0	-40.0	16.7	42.9
Diversified companies	42.9	43.1	43.8	31.3	15.0	34.7	-66.7	-50.0	-15.8	-26.1	15.0	0.0
Other industries	34.4	34.0	28.6	31.0	27.4	27.1	-49.6	-41.7	-17.4	-16.0	3.8	-3.7
All Industries	35.7	37.1	30.3	29.8	21.3	19.5	-48.6	-45.0	-20.6	-18.1	-1.3	-2.0

Table19: Outlook for important business parameters according to size (PUC-wise and Annual production-wise) of responding companies
(Net response in per cent)
		Production		Order books		Availability of Finance		Cost of raw material		Cost of finance		Profit Margin
		Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60	Rd59	Rd60
PUC-Wise	Small	18.4	24.9	14.2	15.6	13.5	11.0	-55.0	-46.7	-20.7	-20.4	-13.4	-15.0
	Medium	38.6	39.2	33.1	32.3	22.8	20.8	-47.6	-44.5	-20.6	-18.3	-0.4	0.5
	Big	44.6	43.0	35.9	35.7	22.6	25.8	-43.9	-46.0	-19.5	-9.2	10.0	13.8
Annual Prod.-Wise	Small	31.5	34.7	24.3	25.6	16.3	13.7	-54.7	-50.7	-23.6	-21.4	-8.0	-7.3
	Medium	37.7	37.5	33.4	31.4	24.7	25.1	-44.6	-42.4	-19.8	-18.0	-1.3	-0.2
	Big	42.5	43.1	39.2	38.3	25.9	18.4	-42.1	-35.8	-13.6	-7.5	11.5	7.3

Table 20: Constraints for attaining the normal production level: Industry-wise
	Production Constraint
	NO		YES
	Count	Per cent	Count	Per cent
Food products	56	42.7	75	57.3
Textiles	66	36.9	113	63.1
Basic Metals & Metal products	77	42.5	104	57.5
Electrical machinery	48	52.2	44	47.8
Other Machinery & Apparatus	70	45.2	85	54.8
Transport Equipment	37	42.5	50	57.5
Fertilisers	17	54.8	14	45.2
Pharmaceutical & Medicines	62	65.3	33	34.7
Basic Chemicals	52	54.2	44	45.8
Rubber & Plastic products	33	45.8	39	54.2
Paper & Paper products	23	56.1	18	43.9
Cement	11	42.3	15	57.7
Wood & wood products	7	43.8	9	56.3
Diversified companies	42	55.3	34	44.7
Other industries	61	55.5	49	44.5
All Industries	662	47.7	726	52.3

¹Prepared in the Division of Enterprise Surveys, Department of Statistics and Information Management. Data relating to the previous survey round were published in November 2012 issue of the RBI Bulletin. The survey results are based on the replies of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India.