Growth is expected to firm up in 2018-19 and 2019-20 on the back of higher private consumption. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain above 4.0 per cent till Q2:2019-20. The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Twenty-nine panellists participated in the 54th round of the survey conducted during September 20182. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and consolidated in Annexes 1-7, along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output • Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2018-19 ― up from 6.7 per cent in 2017-18 ― and is expected to accelerate further by 10 basis points (bps) in 2019-20 on the back of support from private consumption (Table 1). • The investment rate, proxied by the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to GDP, is expected to improve in 2018-19 and 2019-20, commensurate with an upturn in the saving rate. • Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2018-19 and by 7.3 per cent in 2019-20, supported by activity in the industrial and services sectors.
Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in Real GDP, GVA and Components |
(in per cent) |
|
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
Real GDP Growth |
7.4 (0.0) |
7.5 (-0.1) |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (nominal) (growth rate in per cent) |
12.4 (+0.8) |
12.4 (+0.6) |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Rate (per cent of GDP) |
28.8 (-0.2) |
29.1 (-0.4) |
Real GVA Growth |
7.2 (0.0) |
7.3 (-0.1) |
a. Agriculture and Allied Activities |
3.9 (+0.5) |
3.6 (+0.6) |
b. Industry |
7.7 (+0.8) |
7.2 (+0.2) |
c. Services |
7.9 (-0.3) |
8.4 (-0.2) |
Gross Saving Rate [per cent of gross national deposable income (GNDI)] |
29.8 (-0.2) |
30.0 (-0.5) |
Note: In all the tables, the figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round. |
• Forecasters have assigned the maximum probability to GDP growth being in the range of 7.0-7.4 per cent in 2018-19 and 7.5-7.9 per cent in 2019-20 (Chart 1).
2. Inflation • Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation is likely to remain above 4.0 per cent till Q2:2019-20. • Core inflation (i.e., CPI excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and fuel and light) is likely to remain above 5.0 per cent during 2018-19 before edging down to 5.0 per cent in the first half of 2019-20.
Table 2: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation |
(in per cent) |
|
Q2:18-19 |
Q3:18-19 |
Q4:18-19 |
Q1:19-20 |
Q2:19-20 |
CPI Headline |
4.1 (-0.6) |
4.1 (-0.2) |
4.5 (-0.3) |
5.0 (-0.1) |
5.1 |
CPI excluding food & beverages, pan, tobacco & intoxicants and fuel & light |
6.0 (-0.1) |
5.6 (0.0) |
5.3 (0.0) |
5.0 (+0.1) |
5.0 |
WPI All Commodities |
4.8 (-0.3) |
4.2 (-0.1) |
4.0 (-0.2) |
3.7 (-0.3) |
3.6 |
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
4.8 (-0.1) |
4.6 (+0.1) |
3.9 (-0.1) |
3.6 (+1.0) |
3.3 |
• Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation being in the range 4.0-4.4 per cent in Q2:2018-19. • For Q3:2018-19, highest probability has been assigned to inflation being in the range of 3.5-4.4 per cent. • Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation being in the range 4.5- 4.9 per cent for Q4:2018-19. • Highest probability has been assigned to inflation being in the range of 4.5- 5.4 per during Q1:2019-20 (Chart 2).
3. External Sector • The forecast of growth in merchandise exports and merchandise imports during 2018-19 have been revised up to 10.4 per cent and 14.3 per cent, respectively, but some deceleration is expected in 2019-20 (Table 3). • The current account deficit (CAD) is expected at 2.7 per cent of GDP in 2018-19 and at 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2019-20. • The Indian rupee is likely to remain around ₹72 per US Dollar till Q4:2018-19 (Annex 3).
Table 3: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables |
|
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
Merchandise Exports – in US $ terms (annual growth in per cent) |
10.4 (+0.6) |
9.7 (+1.3) |
Merchandise Imports– in US $ terms (annual growth in per cent) |
14.3 (+1.3) |
8.4 (-0.2) |
Current Account Deficit (Ratio to GDP at current market price, in per cent) |
2.7 (+0.2) |
2.5 (0.0) |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following institutions for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF):
Aditi Nayar, ICRA Limited; Anubhuti Sahay, Standard Chartered Bank; Debopam Chaudhuri, Piramal Enterprises Limited; Devendra Kumar Pant, India Ratings and Research; Dr Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet; Gaurav Kapur, IndusInd Bank Ltd.; ICICI Securities Primary Dealership; Indranil Pan, IDFC Bank Ltd.; Nikhil Gupta, Motilal Oswal; PHD Research Bureau; Sameer Narang, Bank of Baroda; Shailesh Kejariwal, B&K Securities India Pvt Ltd; Siddharth V Kothari, Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd; Sumedh Deorukhkar, BBVA and Upasna Bhardwaj, Kotak Mahindra Bank.
The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of 14 others SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2018-19 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2018-19 |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.3 |
12.4 |
13.3 |
10.3 |
12.0 |
12.8 |
3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.5 |
28.8 |
29.5 |
26.5 |
28.1 |
29.0 |
4 |
GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth rate (per cent) |
7.3 |
7.2 |
9.7 |
6.7 |
7.1 |
7.4 |
a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) |
3.9 |
3.9 |
7.1 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
b |
Industry (growth rate in per cent) |
7.7 |
7.7 |
10.9 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
c |
Services (growth rate in per cent) |
7.9 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
8.1 |
5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
29.6 |
29.8 |
30.6 |
27.6 |
29.3 |
30.1 |
6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP) |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
8 |
Bank Credit - Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.7 |
12.0 |
15.0 |
8.0 |
10.8 |
12.5 |
9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
8.1 |
8.1 |
8.5 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
7.2 |
7.2 |
8.1 |
6.6 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
11 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ terms)- Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.8 |
10.4 |
20.0 |
4.9 |
9.0 |
11.9 |
12 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ terms)- Annual Growth (per cent) |
15.0 |
14.3 |
25.0 |
10.5 |
12.9 |
16.9 |
13 |
Current Account Balance - Ratio to GDP at current market price (per cent) |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
-2.1 |
-3.0 |
-2.8 |
-2.6 |
14 |
Overall BoP - In US $ bn. |
-20.7 |
-20.7 |
-3.6 |
-40.0 |
-30.0 |
-13.0 |
15 |
Inflation based on CPI-Combined - Headline |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
16 |
Inflation based on CPI-Combined - excluding 'Food & Beverages', 'Pan, Tobacco & Intoxicants' and 'Fuel & Light' |
5.7 |
5.7 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
17 |
Inflation based on WPI - All Commodities |
4.5 |
4.5 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
18 |
Inflation based on WPI -Non-food Manufactured Products |
4.4 |
4.4 |
5.4 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.5 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.3 |
12.4 |
13.5 |
10.5 |
11.5 |
13.1 |
3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.9 |
29.1 |
30.0 |
27.1 |
28.0 |
29.5 |
4 |
GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth rate (per cent) |
7.5 |
7.3 |
9.5 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) |
3.7 |
3.6 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
4.2 |
b |
Industry (growth rate in per cent) |
7.3 |
7.2 |
10.2 |
5.8 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
c |
Services (growth rate in per cent) |
8.3 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
29.9 |
30.0 |
30.9 |
27.8 |
29.4 |
30.8 |
6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP) |
6.1 |
5.9 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
8 |
Bank Credit - Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.5 |
12.3 |
14.0 |
11.3 |
11.6 |
13.6 |
9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.5 |
7.5 |
7.6 |
8.4 |
10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
7.1 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
11 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ terms)- Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.2 |
9.7 |
22.0 |
3.3 |
7.3 |
11.6 |
12 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ terms)- Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.8 |
8.4 |
30.0 |
4.3 |
6.6 |
12.0 |
13 |
Current Account Balance - Ratio to GDP at current market price (per cent) |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-1.9 |
-2.8 |
-2.7 |
-2.2 |
14 |
Overall BoP - In US $ bn. |
4.4 |
0.3 |
49.0 |
-30.0 |
-7.3 |
19.8 |
15 |
Inflation based on CPI-Combined - Headline |
4.8 |
4.8 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
16 |
Inflation based on CPI-Combined - excluding 'Food & Beverages', 'Pan, Tobacco & Intoxicants' and 'Fuel & Light' |
5.1 |
4.9 |
6.2 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
5.7 |
17 |
Inflation based on WPI - All Commodities |
4.0 |
4.2 |
5.7 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
18 |
Inflation based on WPI -Non-food Manufactured Products |
3.8 |
4.2 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.5 |
Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q2:2018-19 to Q2:2019-20 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
Q2: 2018-19 |
Q3: 2018-19 |
Q4: 2018-19 |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.4 |
7.4 |
8.1 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
7.7 |
6.3 |
2 |
PFCE at current prices: Y-on-Y Growth (per cent) |
11.8 |
12.5 |
15.7 |
8.0 |
11.1 |
11.8 |
13.4 |
7.0 |
10.8 |
11.7 |
13.3 |
7.0 |
3 |
GFCF Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.5 |
28.5 |
29.6 |
27.7 |
28.3 |
28.6 |
29.0 |
27.3 |
28.7 |
28.9 |
29.5 |
27.1 |
4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
7.4 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
7.5 |
6.0 |
a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) |
3.8 |
3.9 |
6.3 |
2.2 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
5.2 |
1.1 |
b |
Industry (growth rate in per cent) |
7.4 |
7.2 |
9.9 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
10.0 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
8.0 |
5.1 |
c |
Services (growth rate in per cent) |
8.0 |
7.8 |
9.0 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
6.7 |
5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
5.3 |
5.1 |
7.2 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
7.3 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
6.6 |
1.8 |
6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
83.8 |
84.0 |
90.0 |
79.0 |
84.5 |
84.9 |
94.0 |
77.0 |
87.3 |
86.9 |
98.0 |
79.6 |
7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
132.0 |
131.0 |
140.0 |
127.2 |
136.8 |
136.4 |
150.0 |
130.7 |
137.2 |
135.8 |
161.0 |
127.1 |
8 |
Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
72.4 |
72.3 |
75.0 |
69.0 |
71.8 |
72.0 |
75.0 |
68.5 |
9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
75.9 |
75.5 |
80.0 |
72.0 |
75.1 |
75.0 |
78.0 |
71.5 |
10 |
Repo Rate (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
6.74 |
6.75 |
7.00 |
6.25 |
6.79 |
7.00 |
7.25 |
6.00 |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
Q1: 2019-20 |
Q2: 2019-20 |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
6.5 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
7.0 |
2 |
PFCE at current prices: Y-on-Y Growth (per cent) |
11.3 |
11.7 |
13.3 |
7.5 |
11.6 |
12.0 |
13.6 |
8.0 |
3 |
GFCF Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.8 |
28.9 |
29.3 |
27.9 |
28.6 |
28.6 |
29.5 |
27.7 |
4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.5 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.2 |
6.8 |
a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities (growth rate in per cent) |
3.5 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
6.0 |
0.9 |
b |
Industry (growth rate in per cent) |
6.6 |
6.6 |
8.7 |
4.8 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
9.0 |
5.4 |
c |
Services (growth rate in per cent) |
8.1 |
8.0 |
8.6 |
7.3 |
8.2 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
7.3 |
5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
5.1 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
2.9 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
7.1 |
2.9 |
6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
89.0 |
89.5 |
91.3 |
85.0 |
91.3 |
91.3 |
97.6 |
87.1 |
7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
139.6 |
139.6 |
145.0 |
133.1 |
144.1 |
138.3 |
160.0 |
136.5 |
8 |
Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) |
71.2 |
71.0 |
75.0 |
68.5 |
70.6 |
70.5 |
74.0 |
66.0 |
9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
75.2 |
75.0 |
80.5 |
70.5 |
72.8 |
73.5 |
75.0 |
69.0 |
10 |
Repo Rate (end-period) |
6.78 |
7.00 |
7.25 |
6.00 |
6.78 |
7.00 |
7.25 |
6.00 |
Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI-Combined Inflation |
(per cent) |
|
CPI Combined Headline |
Core CPI Combined (excluding ‘Food & Beverages’, 'Pan, Tobacco & Intoxicants' and ‘Fuel & Light’) |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Q2:2018-19 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
5.1 |
3.9 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
5.8 |
Q3:2018-19 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
3.5 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
5.0 |
Q4:2018-19 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
4.6 |
Q1:2019-20 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.4 |
4.1 |
Q2:2019-20 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
6.0 |
4.2 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
4.1 |
Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation |
(per cent) |
|
WPI Headline |
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Q2:2018-19 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
Q3:2018-19 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
5.3 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
5.7 |
4.0 |
Q4:2018-19 |
4.1 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
6.1 |
2.9 |
Q1:2019-20 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
5.5 |
2.7 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
6.1 |
2.2 |
Q2:2019-20 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.6 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
6.3 |
1.9 |
Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth |
Growth Range |
Forecasts for 2018-19 |
Forecasts for 2019-20 |
10.0 per cent or more |
0.00 |
0.00 |
9.5 to 9.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
9.0 to 9.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
8.5 to 8.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.01 |
8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0.05 |
0.08 |
7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.33 |
0.45 |
7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.52 |
0.37 |
6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0.09 |
0.09 |
6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.01 |
0.01 |
5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Below 2.0 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation |
Inflation Range |
Forecasts for Q2:2018-19 |
Forecasts for Q3:2018-19 |
Forecasts for Q4:2018-19 |
Forecasts for Q1:2019-20 |
8.0 per cent or above |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.02 |
6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.06 |
5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.03 |
0.08 |
0.19 |
0.38 |
4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.09 |
0.15 |
0.43 |
0.38 |
4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.52 |
0.30 |
0.25 |
0.11 |
3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0.29 |
0.31 |
0.06 |
0.02 |
3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0.02 |
0.11 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0 to 0.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Below 0 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index. |
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