Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
|
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-1.3 |
-1.5 |
2.0 |
-5.5 |
-2.5 |
0.6 |
a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
-6.8 |
-3.2 |
1.0 |
b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-7.5 |
-6.4 |
1.2 |
-17.8 |
-11.5 |
-4.0 |
2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
1.9 |
1.0 |
5.8 |
-3.0 |
0.1 |
4.3 |
3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
27.5 |
28.1 |
29.0 |
24.9 |
26.3 |
28.7 |
4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-1.1 |
-1.7 |
2.7 |
-5.6 |
-2.1 |
0.7 |
a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
2.6 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
-0.1 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-5.3 |
-5.6 |
1.0 |
-10.9 |
-8.3 |
-1.5 |
c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
4.8 |
-5.5 |
-1.6 |
1.6 |
5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
27.5 |
27.1 |
30.0 |
25.0 |
26.5 |
28.7 |
6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
6.7 |
6.7 |
10.0 |
3.5 |
6.0 |
7.4 |
7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
11.2 |
10.9 |
13.9 |
9.0 |
10.3 |
11.8 |
8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
4.9 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
2.5 |
4.0 |
6.2 |
9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.0 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
6.4 |
10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
3.6 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
-13.7 |
-13.5 |
1.8 |
-34.8 |
-15.2 |
-10.4 |
12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
-17.4 |
-17.7 |
-0.1 |
-34.5 |
-21.5 |
-13.7 |
13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-12.9 |
-11.6 |
0.0 |
-30.0 |
-17.6 |
-6.9 |
14 |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
-1.1 |
-0.7 |
-0.3 |
15 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
27.9 |
29.5 |
58.0 |
-64.1 |
23.9 |
39.8 |
16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
4.1 |
4.0 |
6.0 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
17 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
18 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
-1.9 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
19 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
-1.3 |
-0.5 |
0.4 |