The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 70th round of the survey were received during May 12-26, 2021, wherein thirty two panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output
-
Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for the current year has been revised down from the last survey round to 9.8 per cent; it is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2022-23 (Table 1).
-
SPF panellists have placed GDP growth forecasts in the wide range of 7.7- 11.0 per cent for 2021-22 and 4.0- 10.0 per cent for 2022-23 (Annexes 1 and 2).
-
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying between 9.5- 9.9 per cent in 2021-22 followed by the range 10.0- 10.4 (Chart 1). For 2022-23, highest probability has been assigned to the range 6.0- 6.4 per cent (Chart 2).
Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in Charts 1 and 2. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6.
-
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 10.8 per cent during 2021-22 and by 6.9 per cent in the next year.
-
Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to record a growth of 11.4 per cent in 2021-22 and then by 7.1 per cent in 2022-23.
- Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow by 9.0 per cent in 2021-22, supported by sharp pick-up in industrial and services activities; it is likely to record 6.1 per cent growth next year.
| Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components |
| (in per cent) |
| |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
| Real GDP |
9.8
(-1.2) |
6.5 |
| a. Real PFCE |
10.8
(-1.2) |
6.9 |
| b. Real GFCF |
11.4
(-2.0) |
7.1 |
| Nominal PFCE |
15.0
(-1.3) |
11.1 |
| Real GVA |
9.0
(-1.0) |
6.1 |
| a. Agriculture and Allied Activities |
3.0
(0.0) |
3.1 |
| b. Industry |
10.9
(-1.4) |
5.9 |
| c. Services |
9.7
(-1.7) |
7.3 |
Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income] (GNDI)] |
28.9
(-0.7) |
29.3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices] |
29.8
(-0.3) |
30.2 |
| Note: The figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round (applicable for all Tables). |
-
Real GDP is expected to grow by 20.1 per cent in Q1:2021-22 driven by pick-up in both PFCE and GFCF, and then gradually moderate to 5.9 per cent by Q3:2021-22 (Table 2). Quarterly GDP growth forecast path up to Q3:2021-22 has been revised down from the previous round, especially for Q1:2021-22.
| Table 2: Median Growth Forecast of Quarterly GDP, GVA and components |
| (in per cent) |
| |
Q1:2021-22 |
Q2:2021-22 |
Q3:2021-22 |
Q4:2021-22 |
| Real GDP |
20.1
(-6.5) |
8.2
(-1.5) |
5.9
(-0.1) |
5.9
(+0.6) |
| a. Real PFCE |
23.1
(-5.9) |
11.0
(-1.1) |
5.8
(-0.8) |
5.7
(+0.1) |
| b. Real GFCF |
38.0
(-9.6) |
7.1
(-2.2) |
5.0
(-1.2) |
5.0
(-0.3) |
| Real GVA |
19.3
(-3.6) |
8.0
(-1.1) |
5.0
(-0.6) |
4.8
(-0.3) |
2. Inflation
| Table 3: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation |
| (in per cent) |
| |
Q1:2021-22 |
Q2:2021-22 |
Q3:2021-22 |
Q4:2021-22 |
| CPI Combined (General) |
5.0
(0.0) |
5.0
(+0.1) |
4.4
(+0.1) |
5.1
(+0.1) |
| CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light |
5.3
(0.0) |
5.0
(-0.3) |
5.0
(-0.3) |
5.0
(-0.1) |
| WPI All Commodities |
11.2
(+3.7) |
9.9
(+3.9) |
8.2
(+3.4) |
5.8
(+2.8) |
| WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
9.0
(+2.8) |
8.7
(+2.9) |
7.3
(+3.0) |
4.9
(+2.3) |
Note: Tails of the distributions are not presented in the Chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 3. External Sector
-
Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 16.3 per cent and 25.3 per cent, respectively, during 2021-22 (Table 4).
-
Current account deficit is expected at 0.8 per cent (of GDP at current market prices) in 2021-22 and at 1.3 per cent in 2022-23.
-
The Indian rupee is likely to remain range bound between ₹73.50 – ₹74.70 per US dollar till Q4:2021-22 (Annex 3).
| Table 4: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables |
| |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
16.3
(+1.3) |
9.0 |
Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
25.3
(+1.2) |
10.1 |
Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
-0.8
(0.0) |
-1.3 |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF): Abhishek Gupta (Bloomberg Economics); Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited); Anagha Deodhar (ICICI Securities); Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd; Charu Chanana (Continuum Economics); CRISIL Ltd.; Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Ltd); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings & Research); Gaura Sen Gupta (IDFC FIRST Bank); Gaurav Kapoor (Induslnd Bank Limited); ICICI Securities PD; Indranil Pan (YES Bank); Madhavi Arora (Emkay Global Financial Services); Pinaki M. Mukherjee (Maruti Suzuki); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt ltd); Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange); and Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank). The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen other SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.7 |
9.8 |
11.0 |
7.7 |
9.3 |
10.1 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.6 |
10.8 |
13.1 |
4.8 |
9.9 |
11.8 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.4 |
11.4 |
15.5 |
5.4 |
9.2 |
13.3 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
13.8 |
15.0 |
16.8 |
7.2 |
12.6 |
15.4 |
| 3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.8 |
29.8 |
30.2 |
26.0 |
28.0 |
30.1 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.9 |
9.0 |
11.0 |
6.1 |
8.5 |
9.5 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.2 |
3.0 |
5.1 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.9 |
10.9 |
14.3 |
6.5 |
9.9 |
12.5 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.8 |
9.7 |
13.4 |
7.5 |
8.9 |
10.4 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
28.8 |
28.9 |
33.0 |
25.0 |
27.2 |
30.0 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
6.9 |
6.8 |
7.8 |
6.3 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
10.6 |
10.8 |
13.1 |
6.8 |
10.4 |
11.0 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.8 |
7.9 |
10.0 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
8.8 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.4 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
3.8 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
17.8 |
16.3 |
35.0 |
6.9 |
13.7 |
22.9 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
27.5 |
25.3 |
42.9 |
16.7 |
23.0 |
31.9 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-22.6 |
-25.0 |
28.0 |
-48.1 |
-32.0 |
-17.8 |
| a |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-0.6 |
-0.8 |
1.5 |
-1.6 |
-1.0 |
-0.4 |
| 14 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
44.2 |
47.0 |
71.2 |
15.3 |
35.0 |
52.0 |
| 15 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
5.2 |
5.2 |
6.0 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
8.0 |
8.6 |
10.7 |
3.9 |
6.5 |
9.1 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
7.3 |
7.4 |
10.0 |
5.0 |
6.2 |
8.1 |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2022-23 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2022-23 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.5 |
6.5 |
10.0 |
4.0 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.0 |
6.9 |
9.6 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
7.6 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.5 |
7.1 |
9.8 |
5.2 |
6.7 |
8.4 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.2 |
11.1 |
13.0 |
9.1 |
10.7 |
11.6 |
| 3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
29.9 |
30.2 |
31.2 |
28.0 |
29.5 |
30.6 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.0 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
6.8 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.2 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.3 |
5.9 |
10.0 |
3.3 |
5.1 |
7.0 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.9 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
6.5 |
7.7 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
29.4 |
29.3 |
32.0 |
26.9 |
29.0 |
29.9 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
9.0 |
9.3 |
10.2 |
5.3 |
8.6 |
9.7 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.2 |
8.0 |
11.0 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
9.0 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.6 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
5.7 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
4.1 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
4.5 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.6 |
9.0 |
25.5 |
5.0 |
7.2 |
10.7 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.9 |
10.1 |
38.0 |
7.0 |
9.4 |
11.6 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-37.3 |
-43.7 |
18.1 |
-59.7 |
-47.8 |
-37.0 |
| a |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-1.1 |
-1.3 |
0.6 |
-1.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
| 14 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
26.4 |
33.1 |
50.0 |
-15.0 |
21.3 |
40.0 |
| 15 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
3.4 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
3.7 |
3.2 |
7.6 |
-0.3 |
2.9 |
4.9 |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q4:2020-21 to Q4:2021-22 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q4: 2020-21 |
Q1: 2021-22 |
Q2: 2021-22 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
0.3 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
-2.2 |
20.7 |
20.1 |
28.8 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
8.2 |
12.4 |
5.5 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
1.8 |
2.6 |
5.0 |
-7.2 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
35.6 |
1.5 |
10.9 |
11.0 |
17.4 |
-2.0 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.5 |
2.8 |
13.4 |
-6.9 |
40.1 |
38.0 |
75.0 |
5.2 |
8.0 |
7.1 |
15.7 |
0.6 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
5.3 |
6.3 |
9.7 |
-4.3 |
25.1 |
27.8 |
39.5 |
2.0 |
14.1 |
16.0 |
21.1 |
1.1 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
27.6 |
28.2 |
29.9 |
23.1 |
24.6 |
24.7 |
30.0 |
19.0 |
26.0 |
26.9 |
30.0 |
17.5 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
2.0 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
-1.1 |
19.3 |
19.3 |
25.9 |
8.5 |
8.1 |
8.0 |
12.0 |
4.4 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
5.4 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
1.2 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
4.0 |
3.6 |
8.0 |
1.6 |
32.0 |
33.8 |
49.8 |
7.8 |
6.5 |
5.7 |
12.0 |
0.6 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
1.3 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
-2.8 |
18.2 |
18.2 |
29.2 |
9.1 |
10.6 |
9.9 |
25.0 |
5.4 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
5.1 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
3.0 |
33.7 |
26.1 |
80.3 |
15.0 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
21.0 |
-0.9 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
87.1 |
89.7 |
93.0 |
76.5 |
82.9 |
87.3 |
94.0 |
52.4 |
86.6 |
87.7 |
96.0 |
75.6 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
127.2 |
130.5 |
135.0 |
110.7 |
119.3 |
125.0 |
132.7 |
63.2 |
123.7 |
126.4 |
136.0 |
90.4 |
| 8 |
Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
73.7 |
73.5 |
75.0 |
72.8 |
74.2 |
74.0 |
77.0 |
72.5 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
66.0 |
65.0 |
72.7 |
62.0 |
66.3 |
66.3 |
74.0 |
56.4 |
| 10 |
Policy Repo Rate (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3.99 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
3.85 |
3.99 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
3.85 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q3: 2021-22 |
Q4: 2021-22 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
5.8 |
5.9 |
9.0 |
3.0 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
8.0 |
3.1 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.2 |
5.8 |
9.4 |
1.0 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
9.2 |
1.5 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.9 |
5.0 |
9.1 |
-5.7 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
8.7 |
-1.3 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.9 |
9.5 |
14.5 |
1.5 |
8.0 |
7.2 |
14.0 |
2.0 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
26.5 |
27.1 |
30.0 |
18.0 |
27.1 |
27.7 |
30.4 |
19.9 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
5.0 |
5.0 |
8.5 |
2.0 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
0.9 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.2 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
2.0 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
5.2 |
5.3 |
8.5 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
12.9 |
0.8 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.1 |
5.9 |
11.0 |
1.7 |
5.5 |
5.0 |
9.0 |
-0.1 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
5.3 |
5.6 |
10.1 |
0.0 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
8.2 |
1.9 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
88.8 |
89.4 |
105.0 |
77.2 |
93.2 |
93.0 |
107.0 |
84.0 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
128.2 |
128.0 |
147.0 |
111.8 |
134.5 |
134.5 |
147.0 |
120.0 |
| 8 |
Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) |
74.5 |
74.7 |
76.8 |
71.5 |
74.4 |
74.5 |
76.5 |
71.5 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
65.3 |
65.0 |
72.5 |
55.7 |
65.1 |
65.0 |
75.0 |
51.9 |
| 10 |
Policy Repo Rate (end-period) |
3.99 |
4.00 |
4.25 |
3.60 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
4.25 |
3.60 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
CPI Combined (General) |
CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q1:2021-22 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
| Q2:2021-22 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
4.5 |
| Q3:2021-22 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
5.1 |
3.3 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
| Q4:2021-22 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.8 |
3.9 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
4.1 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
WPI All Commodities |
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q1:2021-22 |
10.8 |
11.2 |
12.3 |
4.6 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
11.2 |
7.5 |
| Q2:2021-22 |
9.3 |
9.9 |
12.0 |
4.0 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
11.7 |
4.8 |
| Q3:2021-22 |
7.6 |
8.2 |
10.5 |
2.6 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
10.7 |
4.1 |
| Q4:2021-22 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
8.0 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
7.9 |
2.5 |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth |
| Growth Range |
Forecasts for 2021-22 |
Forecasts for 2022-23 |
| 12.0 per cent or more |
0 |
0 |
| 11.5 to 11.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 11.0 to 11.4 per cent |
0.03 |
0 |
| 10.5 to 10.9 per cent |
0.07 |
0.01 |
| 10.0 to 10.4 per cent |
0.25 |
0.01 |
| 9.5 to 9.9 per cent |
0.27 |
0.01 |
| 9.0 to 9.4 per cent |
0.15 |
0.01 |
| 8.5 to 8.9 per cent |
0.08 |
0.01 |
| 8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0.07 |
0.02 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.06 |
0.06 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.01 |
0.13 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0 |
0.17 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0 |
0.29 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0 |
0.21 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0 |
0.05 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0 |
0.02 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 0.0 to 0.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -0.5 to -0.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -1.5 to -1.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -2.0 to -1.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -2.5 to -2.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -3.0 to -2.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -3.5 to -3.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -4.0 to -3.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -4.5 to -4.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -5.0 to -4.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -5.5 to -5.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -6.0 to -5.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -6.5 to -6.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -7.0 to -6.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -7.5 to -7.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -8.0 to -7.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -8.5 to -8.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -9.0 to -8.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -9.5 to -9.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -10.0 to -9.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -10.5 to -10.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -11.0 to -10.5 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| below -11.0 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation |
| Inflation Range |
Forecasts for Q1:2021-22 |
Forecasts for Q2:2021-22 |
Forecasts for Q3:2021-22 |
Forecasts for Q4:2021-22 |
| 9.0 per cent or above |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8.5 to 9.0 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.01 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0 |
0.05 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.13 |
0.12 |
0.02 |
0.18 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.46 |
0.37 |
0.14 |
0.32 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.31 |
0.34 |
0.37 |
0.28 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.07 |
0.14 |
0.28 |
0.09 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.13 |
0.03 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0.05 |
0.03 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 0 to 0.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| -0.5 to -0.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Below -1.0 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index.
|
