Speeches & Media Interactions

Speech by Shri Swaminathan J, Deputy Governor at the Conference of Governance in Urban Co-operative Banks for UCBs in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana held in Hyderabad on January 24, 2024

MDs and CEOs of Regulated Entities, Heads of Customer Service, Principal Nodal Officers, Executive Director, Shri Neeraj Nigam, Reserve Bank Ombudsmen, senior colleagues from the Reserve Bank and most importantly the key audience of our conference today, the Internal Ombudsman from Regulated Entities. A very good morning to all of you.

It gives me great pleasure to be here at Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. While the winter outside is cold, the warmth of coming together of eminent leaders and experts from diverse fields more than compensates for it. These meetings assume greater relevance when fundamental changes are taking place in a global scale that would potentially shape our common destiny. I thank the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) for giving me this opportunity to speak at this event. Recent information on the global macroeconomic front has been somewhat reassuring with inflation gradually descending closer to the target, even as growth has held up better than expected. The odds of a soft landing have increased and this has enthused the financial markets. Financial conditions have eased, and markets have scaled new highs, raising concerns that they might be running ahead of themselves. At this critical juncture, certain hard facts have to be kept in mind, namely, global growth is slowing down; geopolitical situation continues to be fragile with new flash points and fear of supply chain disruptions; geo-economic fragmentation remains unabated undermining global trade; and the daunting climate related challenges are holding their ground.

Director, CAFRAL, Shri B P Kanungo; Shri N S Vishwanathan former Deputy Governor RBI, Smt. Indrani Banerjee, Additional Director CAFRAL, Shri Diwakar Gupta, Senior Advisor, CAFRAL, distinguished guests from the financial fraternity; and ladies and gentlemen. I am delighted to be present here at this very topical Conference on Resolution of Stressed Assets and Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code – the Future Road Map. The IBC notified in May 2016 introduced a comprehensive legislation that introduced a paradigm shift in the landscape of insolvency and bankruptcy proceedings in India, bringing in a more structured, institutionalised and time-sensitive approach to resolving financial distress.

Chief Compliance Officers, Chief Risk Officers, Heads of Internal Audit, colleagues from the Reserve Bank of India, Ladies, and Gentlemen. A happy New Year and good afternoon to all of you. I am delighted to address you today as we gather for this inaugural conference of Heads of Assurance functions. Last year, in our engagements with the Boards of both Public and Private Sector Banks, Governor had emphasized the importance of independence of assurance functions as well as their right to constructively challenge business functions for establishing a strong compliance and risk culture.  Indeed, this conference today is a testament to the significant importance the Reserve Bank attaches to the assurance functions in the context of safeguarding financial integrity and promoting regulatory compliance.

I am very happy to be here at this Conference on Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), 2016 organised by the Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning (CAFRAL). I wish to congratulate CAFRAL for taking this initiative and thank them for inviting me to this event.

I am extremely delighted to be here this morning at the Mint BFSI Summit. I would like to thank the organisers, Mint, for inviting me to this event. Incidentally, I had also participated in a similar event - Mint Annual Banking Conclave - in February 2020.

(Remarks delivered virtually by Shri M. Rajeshwar Rao, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India – December 22, 2023 - at the 106th Annual Conference of Indian Economic Association in Delhi)

Chairman, State Bank of India Shri Dinesh Khara and my fellow colleagues from the banking fraternity, ladies, and gentlemen. 1.A very warm good morning to all of you. I am delighted to be here at the 10th edition of the SBI Banking & Economics Conclave, surrounded by industry leaders from banking and financial sectors, leading economists, policy makers, and other stakeholders. This marquee event provides a platform for discussing pertinent issues, sharing insights, and exploring potential solutions for the industry. In a lighter vein, after being a part of its host institution in its past nine editions, I now have the honour of being invited to speak at this prestigious event! I am extremely grateful to Chairman Shri Khara for extending this invitation. 

Distinguished guests, Good evening. First of all, let me thank the Indian Banking Association (IBA) and FICCI for inviting me over to deliver this address today. It’s a pleasure to be here amidst such a gathering of important stakeholders across the spectrum of our financial landscape. In a very short span of time, FIBAC has achieved a prominent status for being a premier brainstorming event on emerging themes of relevance to the financial world.

I am delighted to participate in this symposium on Indian Economy organised by the Institute of Indian Economic Studies (IIES), Tokyo. I understand this event is being organised by the IIES after a gap of 3 years due to the intervening period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier this year in March 2023, Prof. Sakakibara and Mr. Sugaya had visited the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai when we discussed about my participation in this symposium.  I would like to convey my sincere thanks and gratitude to Prof. Sakakibara and the IIES for inviting me to participate in this event today.

I am delighted to participate in this symposium on Indian Economy organised by the Institute of Indian Economic Studies (IIES), Tokyo. I understand this event is being organised by the IIES after a gap of 3 years due to the intervening period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier this year in March 2023, Prof. Sakakibara and Mr. Sugaya had visited the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai when we discussed about my participation in this symposium.  I would like to convey my sincere thanks and gratitude to Prof. Sakakibara and the IIES for inviting me to participate in this event today.

Good Morning to you all! I am delighted to be here again at the prestigious Annual Central Banking Seminar, a flagship event of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for which it has earned global renown. It is truly an honour to interact with central bankers from around the world, our community of tomorrow. You embody the theme of India’s G20 Presidency – Vasudhaivya Kutumbakam: the world is one family. 

The Climate is Striking Back

In my past interactions in this Seminar, I have dwelled on macroeconomic stability; price stability; exchange rate stability; financial stability – all essentially issues centered around the core competence of conservative central bankers from which we are reluctant to stray. After all, central banks stand for stability.

Ladies, gentlemen and distinguished guests, It is indeed a pleasure to be participating in this summit, a gathering that is engaged to distill the essence of responsible stewardship in the corporate world. Keeping up with the theme of this session, "The Challenge of Regulation", I will reflect a bit on the dynamic landscape of regulations and regulation making, its evolving nature and on the transformation underway in the financial sector. Later, I will also outline a few challenges and dilemmas encountered by the regulators in framing appropriate regulations to manage these transitions.

Do we need Regulations?

Many believe that minimal regulations, is the best way to foster growth of the enterprise. But history is replete with the examples of how minimal regulation coupled with lenient supervision and restrained enforcements have often led to financial crises. In fact, we would all agree that nothing could be more damaging to sustainable growth than a misfiring banking and financial sector. While in an ideal scenario, the ‘invisible hand’ would ensure that the system functions flawlessly for the greater good with minimal regulatory oversight, in reality it does not happen that way. As such, to control the irrational exuberance in the financial sector, there is need for a regulator who sets the boundaries and also enforces them for ensuring a sound and robust set of financial institutions and there by promotes financial stability.

Shri V G Sekar, Principal, College of Agricultural Banking, Heads of Priority Sector verticals of banks, Members of faculty from CAB, Ladies and Gentlemen. Good morning. 1. I thank CAB for inviting me today to discuss a critical topic that lies at the crossroads of financial institutions' responsibilities and our collective vision for a better, more sustainable world. I propose to briefly discuss the aspect of sustainable finance to begin with before coming to the theme of the conclave, that is Priority Sector Lending, as I believe that there is a strong interplay between these two.

I am delighted to be back at the Kautilya Economic Conclave, 2023. This event is emerging as a leading forum for well-rounded discourse on economic and other policy issues of contemporary relevance. I am sure the eminent gathering here will contribute richly to the discussions on issues and challenges that confront us today and tomorrow.

Prof. Errol D’Souza, Director, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad or IIMA; Prof. Umakant Dash, Director, Institute of Rural Management, Anand or IRMA; Dr. Supriya Sharma, Partner-Insights, Centre for Innovation Incubation and Entrepreneurship or CIIE; representatives of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF); faculty, students and staff of IIMA; and friends, I commend all of you on this laudable initiative of Financial Inclusion for Rural Transformation

Good afternoon and Namaskar. Thank you Alfred for those insightful opening remarks. I must mention that Alfred led the IMF’s Article IV India mission for the 2021 consultations. The sheer weight of that experience and deep understanding of Indian conditions is reflected in his views. I would also like to commend Alfred and his co-editors for a comprehensive evaluation of India’s financial system and very valuable recommendations on the way forward in a recent book evocatively titled “India’s Financial System: Building the Foundation for Strong and Sustainable Growth”.

I am glad to see Mr Thomas Helbling from the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF in this session, and I look forward to hearing from him.

I thank our host and SEACEN EXCO Chair, the National Bank of Cambodia, the SEACEN Centre and Dr. Mangal Goswami, Executive Director, and the BIS for inviting me to speak in this distinguished forum. In particular, I am grateful to Deputy Governor Sum Sannisith for so graciously writing to me to participate in this 16th SEACEN-BIS High Level Seminar.

The Backdrop

It is widely believed that during the next two decades – if not for longer – the centre of gravity of the global economy will shift eastwards to Asia. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific indicates that this region will contribute about two-thirds of global growth in 2023 itself. India will account for a sixth of world output growth in 2023 and 2024. In terms of market exchange rates, India is the fifth largest economy of the world and the third largest economy on the basis of purchasing power parity. Our assessment is that by 2027, India will be a US$ 5 trillion economy and the third largest in the world even by market exchange rates. A key driver in this transformation is likely to be the window of a demographic dividend that opened up in 2018 and will probably last till the 2040s, going by fertility and mortality rates. Already, we are the most populous country in the world at 1.4 billion and the youngest at an average age of 28 years. The other major catalyst of India’s progress will be the pace and quality of financial sector development, which is the theme of my address today. It is anchored by a few slides.

I am delighted to be here with all of you to celebrate the Diamond Jubilee Year of the Delhi School of Economics (DSE). The Delhi School has made a distinct mark as an institution of excellence and very high reputation, both in India and abroad. The list of eminent economists and distinguished alumni associated with the DSE is long and impressive. The School has inspired generations of students to excel in diverse streams such as academia, research, government and corporate sectors. In the Reserve Bank of India, we have also benefitted immensely from the DSE, with a continuous stream of students joining the RBI. It is a matter of pride for me to be part of this momentous year in the history of the institute which has contributed immensely to the policy discourse in India.

2. Today, I have chosen to speak on “Art of Monetary Policy Making: The Indian Context”. As you would be aware, India formally adopted the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework in 2016, in broad alignment with global trends. The underlying principle of this framework is that a clearly articulated, legislatively mandated numerical inflation target is the best foundation for overall macroeconomic stability. Low and stable inflation helps households and businesses in planning for long-term savings and investments which ultimately drive innovation, productivity and sustainable growth. On the contrary, high and volatile inflation corrodes the economy by denting productivity and the long-term growth potential. Inflation also imposes disproportionate burden on the poor.

3. I have structured my talk in the following sequence: (i) evolution of monetary policy in India, culminating in the adoption of flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework; (ii) key elements of this framework, including the forecasting process; (iii) conduct of monetary policy under the FIT regime; and (iv) monetary policy challenges at the current juncture.

Evolution of Monetary Policy Since Independence

4. During the 1950s and 1960s, as the country embarked upon planned economic development, monetary policy assumed a developmental role of meeting the credit needs of the economy as identified under the five-year plans. Bank nationalisation in 1969 ushered in the era of social banking and led to the credit planning phase (1969-85). This period witnessed widespread use of non-market instruments such as directed credit, administered interest rates and moral suasion.

5. Monetary policy during the 1970s and 1980s was constrained by fiscal dominance, automatic monetisation of budget deficits and excessive growth of monetary aggregates. The large scale deficit financing and the resultant high monetary and credit expansion led to inflationary pressures which were further exacerbated by a series of shocks, namely, the Indo-Pak war of 1971, the drought of 1973, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, and global oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. These events precipitated the adoption of “monetary targeting with feedback” as a formal monetary policy framework in 1985.

I am delighted to be here with all of you to celebrate the Diamond Jubilee Year of the Delhi School of Economics (DSE). The Delhi School has made a distinct mark as an institution of excellence and very high reputation, both in India and abroad. The list of eminent economists and distinguished alumni associated with the DSE is long and impressive. The School has inspired generations of students to excel in diverse streams such as academia, research, government and corporate sectors. In the Reserve Bank of India, we have also benefitted immensely from the DSE, with a continuous stream of students joining the RBI. It is a matter of pride for me to be part of this momentous year in the history of the institute which has contributed immensely to the policy discourse in India.

2. Today, I have chosen to speak on “Art of Monetary Policy Making: The Indian Context”. As you would be aware, India formally adopted the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework in 2016, in broad alignment with global trends. The underlying principle of this framework is that a clearly articulated, legislatively mandated numerical inflation target is the best foundation for overall macroeconomic stability. Low and stable inflation helps households and businesses in planning for long-term savings and investments which ultimately drive innovation, productivity and sustainable growth. On the contrary, high and volatile inflation corrodes the economy by denting productivity and the long-term growth potential. Inflation also imposes disproportionate burden on the poor.

3. I have structured my talk in the following sequence: (i) evolution of monetary policy in India, culminating in the adoption of flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework; (ii) key elements of this framework, including the forecasting process; (iii) conduct of monetary policy under the FIT regime; and (iv) monetary policy challenges at the current juncture.

Evolution of Monetary Policy Since Independence

4. During the 1950s and 1960s, as the country embarked upon planned economic development, monetary policy assumed a developmental role of meeting the credit needs of the economy as identified under the five-year plans. Bank nationalisation in 1969 ushered in the era of social banking and led to the credit planning phase (1969-85). This period witnessed widespread use of non-market instruments such as directed credit, administered interest rates and moral suasion.

5. Monetary policy during the 1970s and 1980s was constrained by fiscal dominance, automatic monetisation of budget deficits and excessive growth of monetary aggregates. The large scale deficit financing and the resultant high monetary and credit expansion led to inflationary pressures which were further exacerbated by a series of shocks, namely, the Indo-Pak war of 1971, the drought of 1973, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, and global oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. These events precipitated the adoption of “monetary targeting with feedback” as a formal monetary policy framework in 1985.