RBI Bulletin – October 2023 - આરબીઆઈ - Reserve Bank of India
RBI Bulletin – October 2023
Today, the Reserve Bank released the October 2023 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes two speeches, six articles and current statistics. The six articles are: I. State of the Economy; II. Measuring Uncertainty: An Indian Perspective; III. Impact of G-Sec Yield Movements on Bank Profitability in India; IV. Production Weighted Rainfall Index and Agriculture Production: Relationship Re-visited; V. Housing Finance Companies and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Does Size Matter?; and VI. COVID-19 Pandemic and the Resilience of India’s R&D Expenditure. I. State of the Economy Global growth lost pace from Q3:2023 on the back of weak manufacturing activity and tight financial conditions in advanced economies even as several emerging market economies posted growth surprises. Surging yields and soaring crude oil prices have emerged as proximate risks to global growth. In India, a broad-based gaining of momentum is discernible in high frequency indicators. Deleveraging and higher capacity utilization have enabled capital-heavy industries to gain traction. The Indian rupee (INR) is exhibiting low volatility. Inflation has moderated from its July peak, bolstering macroeconomic fundamentals. II. Measuring Uncertainty: An Indian Perspective By Michael Debabrata Patra, Renjith Mohan, Joice John and Indranil Bhattacharyya This article measures uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic developments from the RBI’s professional forecasters’ survey responses. The measure incorporates a common temporal component, which is the perception of uncertainty affecting all forecasters during a specific time period such as the COVID-19 pandemic; and idiosyncratic uncertainty, which is specific to a particular forecaster and is reflected in disagreements between forecasters. Highlights:
III. Impact of G-Sec Yield Movements on Bank Profitability in India By Radheshyam Verma and Rakesh Kumar The article estimates empirically the impact of changes in government security (G-sec) yields on bank profitability during Q1:2015-16 to Q1:2022-23. Highlights:
IV. Production Weighted Rainfall Index and Agriculture Production: Relationship Re-visited By Shivangee Misra, Rajendra Raghumanda and Sanjay Singh Given the importance of rainfall for agricultural production in India, the Reserve Bank staff has been preparing Production Weighted Rainfall Index (PRN) which takes into account the state-wise rainfall and their respective contributions in all-India foodgrain production. This article attempts to modify the PRN (MPRN) to strengthen its performance in forecasting kharif foodgrain production. Highlights:
V. Housing Finance Companies and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Does Size Matter? By Nandini Jayakumar, Rajnish Kumar Chandra, Brijesh P., and Prayag Singh Rawat This article empirically examines the performance of the HFC sector for the period between June 2016 and September 2022 using quarterly supervisory data filed by Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) with the National Housing Bank (NHB). Highlights:
VI. COVID-19 Pandemic and the Resilience of India’s R&D Expenditure By Siddhartha Nath, Shruti Joshi and Sadhan Kumar Chattopadhyay This article looks at the determinants of Research and Development (R&D) activities for companies operating in India. It also examines the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on R&D. Highlights:
The views expressed in the Bulletin articles are of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. (Yogesh Dayal) Press Release: 2023-2024/1146 |