RBI Bulletin – September 2023 - આરબીઆઈ - Reserve Bank of India
RBI Bulletin – September 2023
Today, the Reserve Bank released the September 2023 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes six speeches, five articles and current statistics. The five articles are: I. State of the Economy; II. Fiscal Costs of Reverting to the Old Pension System by the Indian States – An Assessment; III. An Analysis of the Recent Performance of NBFC Sector; IV. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Distributional Mapping; and V. Private Consumption Drivers in India: A Thick Modelling Approach. I. State of the Economy India’s G20 Presidency and its outcomes with the ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam as the vision of global progress assume significance in an environment where global economic activity is experiencing a loss of momentum with a dichotomy in macroeconomic conditions across regions. Amidst weakening global prospects, the Indian economy is gaining strength led by domestic drivers – private consumption; and fixed investment with strong public sector capex. Supply responses are improving and headline inflation has softened in August from the previous month’s peak. II. Fiscal Cost of Reverting to the Old Pension Scheme by the Indian States – An Assessment By Rachit Solanki, Somnath Sharma, R. K. Sinha, Samir Ranjan Behera and Atri Mukherjee As part of the pension reforms initiated in India during the first decade of this century, most State governments adopted the National Pension System (NPS), which is a defined contribution scheme. Against the backdrop of recent discussion in public space about reversion to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) and with some States actually doing so, this study has been undertaken. It analyses the NPS contribution data of State government employees to estimate the likely fiscal costs that could arise if all State governments revert to the OPS. Highlights:
III. An Analysis of the Recent Performance of NBFC Sector By Abhyuday Harsh, Nandini Jayakumar, Rajnish Kumar Chandra, and Brijesh P. Using supervisory data, this article evaluates the performance of the NBFC sector in 2022-23 (up to Q3:2022-23). For this article, NBFCs have been grouped in one of the four layers (i.e., Base, Middle, Upper or Top), based on their size, activity and perceived level of riskiness in terms of the scale-based regulatory framework which took effect from October 1, 2022. Highlights:
IV. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Distributional Mapping By R. K. Sinha This article identifies suitable statistical distributions, which help explain the behaviour of actual inflation and survey-based inflation expectations. The identified distributions facilitate measuring Inflation-at-Risk. Highlights:
V. Private Consumption Drivers in India: A Thick Modelling Approach By Deepmala, Sunil Kumar and Bipul Ghosh This article examines the macroeconomic drivers of private consumption – the dominant component of aggregate demand in India – over short and long horizons. The effect of monetary policy easing and tightening cycles on private consumption is also explored. Highlights:
The views expressed in the Bulletin articles are of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. (Yogesh Dayal) Press Release: 2023-2024/939 |