Consumer Confidence Survey

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પ્રકાશિત તારીખ ઑક્ટોબર 09, 2024

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Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2024 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS)¹. The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during September 1-10, 2024, covering 6,087 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 49.2 per cent of this sample.

Highlights:

Consumer confidence for the current period improved again after the uptrend since mid-2021 was interrupted in the previous two survey rounds; sentiments on all major economic parameters inched up in the September 2024 (Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6).
Current Situation Index (CSI)² improved by 0.8 points to 94.7 though it remained below the threshold level of 100 (Chart 1).
Households expressed higher confidence for the year ahead in all survey parameters (Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6).
The future expectations index (FEI) improved by 0.7 points to 121.4 in the latest survey (Chart 1).

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data³

Summary based on Net Responses⁴

Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	36.1	19.9	44.0	-7.9	56.8	15.1	28.1	28.6
Nov-23	33.1	22.5	44.4	-11.3	54.3	17.2	28.5	25.7
Jan-24	37.5	22.3	40.2	-2.7	59.2	15.3	25.5	33.7
Mar-24	41.2	23.1	35.8	5.4	60.7	15.8	23.4	37.3
May-24	40.0	22.6	37.4	2.6	59.0	15.6	25.4	33.5
Jul-24	36.3	22.4	41.3	-5.0	55.0	16.0	29.0	26.1
Sep-24	37.3	21.1	41.6	-4.4	55.5	16.0	28.6	26.9

Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	34.0	21.8	44.2	-10.2	55.8	18.1	26.2	29.6
Nov-23	32.3	23.0	44.7	-12.4	53.6	19.7	26.8	26.9
Jan-24	35.3	23.4	41.3	-6.0	58.7	17.4	24.0	34.7
Mar-24	38.1	23.8	38.1	-0.0	60.0	17.4	22.6	37.4
May-24	36.8	23.0	40.2	-3.3	58.0	18.3	23.7	34.3
Jul-24	34.5	23.0	42.6	-8.1	54.2	18.4	27.4	26.8
Sep-24	35.5	21.8	42.8	-7.3	54.2	18.9	26.9	27.3

Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	91.8	6.4	1.8	-90.0	78.4	9.9	11.7	-66.8
Nov-23	91.3	7.3	1.4	-89.9	81.0	10.2	8.8	-72.3
Jan-24	90.8	7.2	2.0	-88.9	80.5	10.4	9.1	-71.4
Mar-24	89.2	9.3	1.4	-87.8	78.2	12.5	9.4	-68.8
May-24	90.5	7.8	1.6	-88.9	79.0	10.4	10.6	-68.4
Jul-24	93.3	6.0	0.7	-92.6	82.7	8.9	8.4	-74.3
Sep-24	93.3	5.8	0.9	-92.4	82.0	9.5	8.6	-73.3

Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)*
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	82.5	13.4	4.2	-78.3	79.4	15.8	4.8	-74.6
Nov-23	81.8	13.6	4.6	-77.2	80.1	14.7	5.2	-75.0
Jan-24	79.5	15.7	4.8	-74.7	77.2	17.8	5.0	-72.2
Mar-24	77.0	17.6	5.4	-71.6	76.7	18.3	5.0	-71.7
May-24	77.8	15.1	7.1	-70.6	79.1	16.0	4.9	-74.3
Jul-24	80.6	13.4	6.1	-74.6	79.4	16.2	4.4	-75.0
Sep-24	80.7	13.0	6.2	-74.5	78.7	15.9	5.4	-73.4
*Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase.

Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	25.0	49.8	25.2	-0.3	55.7	37.8	6.5	49.2
Nov-23	27.2	50.1	22.7	4.5	57.9	36.0	6.1	51.8
Jan-24	26.4	51.5	22.1	4.2	56.3	36.9	6.8	49.4
Mar-24	27.7	50.6	21.7	6.0	56.7	37.2	6.1	50.5
May-24	25.3	52.3	22.4	2.9	56.9	36.9	6.2	50.7
Jul-24	24.4	50.8	24.9	-0.5	55.9	37.3	6.8	49.1
Sep-24	24.1	51.6	24.3	-0.3	55.8	38.2	6.0	49.9

Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	74.6	20.2	5.2	69.4	75.2	20.3	4.6	70.6
Nov-23	74.8	20.6	4.6	70.1	75.0	21.0	4.1	70.9
Jan-24	73.2	22.3	4.5	68.6	74.2	20.9	5.0	69.2
Mar-24	73.1	23.1	3.8	69.2	73.9	21.7	4.3	69.6
May-24	76.2	20.1	3.8	72.5	77.9	18.1	4.0	73.9
Jul-24	78.9	18.0	3.1	75.8	79.5	16.5	3.9	75.6
Sep-24	80.4	16.9	2.7	77.6	79.6	16.9	3.6	76.0

Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	84.9	11.9	3.2	81.7	82.0	14.4	3.6	78.4
Nov-23	85.7	11.4	2.9	82.7	82.3	14.4	3.4	78.9
Jan-24	84.1	12.9	3.0	81.1	81.8	14.6	3.6	78.2
Mar-24	84.5	13.0	2.5	82.0	82.5	14.5	3.0	79.5
May-24	85.6	11.8	2.7	82.9	84.7	12.3	3.1	81.6
Jul-24	87.3	10.5	2.2	85.1	85.0	12.1	2.9	82.0
Sep-24	87.9	10.3	1.8	86.2	84.9	12.4	2.7	82.2

Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Sep-23	23.4	38.5	38.2	-14.8	33.0	38.2	28.8	4.2
Nov-23	25.2	36.6	38.2	-13.0	34.1	36.8	29.0	5.1
Jan-24	27.2	36.2	36.6	-9.4	34.6	36.4	29.0	5.5
Mar-24	29.2	37.6	33.2	-4.1	35.7	37.6	26.7	9.0
May-24	30.5	35.4	34.1	-3.7	37.4	35.2	27.4	9.9
Jul-24	29.0	36.7	34.4	-5.4	37.4	35.6	27.0	10.3
Sep-24	27.6	40.2	32.3	-4.7	36.4	37.8	25.8	10.6

¹ The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 08, 2024.

² CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period (as compared with one year ago) and a year ahead, respectively. CSI and FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters.

³ Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

⁴ ‘Net response’ is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimisms. It ranges between -100 and 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and values less than zero indicate contraction/ pessimism.