Speeches & Media Interactions

Governors and senior dignitaries from Central Banks, eminent participants, Ladies and Gentlemen, I am delighted to be amidst you all at the High-level conference on “Building synergies”, organised on this historic occasion as we celebrate the 90th year of our establishment. The conference is a part of our endeavour to develop a meaningful dialogue and foster cooperation on the issues confronting the Central banks of the global south. It gives me an opportunity to share my thoughts with you today, on paths traversed so far and some of the challenges we are likely to face as Regulators going forward. 

Monetary policy announcements are associated with frissons of animated speculation rippling through public discourse. Projections are revised, and the balance of risks are re-tilted. Shadow monetary policy committees take positions in print and in sound bytes. Curve fitting the central bank commences – is it behind the curve? – and accordingly, bird-like postures are conjured to characterise its angle of repose. Markets get poised to reprice, and financial institutions reassess interest margins. Depositors and businesses exert conflicting pulls on public opinion. Questions rent the air on the likelihood of rate movements, by how much, and on shifts in stance.

I am delighted to welcome you all to this ‘High-Level Policy Conference of Central Banks from the Global South’. This conference has been organised as part of the commemoration of the 90th year of the Reserve Bank of India since its establishment in 1935. Since then, the Reserve Bank has established itself as a credible public institution in India. This landmark event provides a unique forum to deliberate on current policy challenges from the vantage point of the Global South. This event is also a part of various conferences and seminars which we have organised this year. These include three international conferences, this being the third one.

1. Distinguished panellists - Prof. Randall S. Kroszner, Professor, University of Chicago and Former Governor, Federal Reserve Board; Ms. Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General, Financial Stability and Operations, Banque de France; Ms. Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England; Dr. Sajjid Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief Economist India, JP Morgan; esteemed delegates and colleagues from the Reserve Bank. A very good afternoon to all of you.

The Context Over the past three and a half decades since the formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT), it has proliferated across continents, regardless of the position of host jurisdictions in the developmental ladder. By the turn of this century, it has been increasingly embraced by emerging market economies (EMEs) so much so that they now outnumber advanced economies (AEs) as practitioners. A unique feature of IT is its operationalisation even before the development of a formal theory2. The journey of IT has been tumultuous, navigating as it has the Great Moderation and ‘once in a century’ shocks such as the global financial crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and persisting geopolitical conflicts that have had a direct bearing on both inflation’s evolution and on financial conditions. Yet, there is no evidence of any major country abandoning it3. On the other hand, central banks have drawn lessons from these humungous challenges and innovated and refined their policy frameworks. The endogenous evolution of IT has rendered it the longest surviving monetary policy framework in modern times.

I feel highly privileged to be here at this High Level Conference on ‘Central Banking at Crossroads’ and share some of my thoughts. When the definitive history of our times is written, the turn of the current decade will, in all probability, be regarded as a watershed in the evolution of central banking. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the persistent geopolitical strife thereafter, central banks are treading in the uncharted terrain of a twilight zone. Today, like never before in the five centuries of their existence, central banks are confronted with a future where their mandates, their functions and their performances are all up for unforgiving scrutiny.