| भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक ने आज त्रैमासिक औद्योगिक परिदृश्य सर्वेक्षण (आइओएस) के 104वें दौर के परिणाम जारी किये। इस सर्वेक्षण में वर्ष 2023-24 की तीसरी तिमाही के लिए भारतीय विनिर्माण कंपनियों द्वारा कारोबार के परिवेश का गुणात्मक मूल्यांकन और वर्ष 2023-241 की चौथी तिमाही के लिए उक्त कंपनियों की प्रत्याशाओं के साथ-साथ आगामी दो तिमाहियों के लिए चयनित मापदंडों पर उनके आउटलुक को समाहित किया गया है। वर्ष 2023-24 की तीसरी तिमाही के दौरान सर्वेक्षण के इस दौर में कुल 1,040 कंपनियों ने प्रत्युत्तर दिए ।
विशेष:
क. तीसरी तिमाही (Q3) 2023-24 का मूल्यांकन
- विनिर्माण कंपनियों ने 2023-24 की तीसरी तिमाही के दौरान सकारात्मक मांग की स्थिति की सूचना दी, जैसा कि उनके उत्पादन, क्षमता उपयोग, लंबित ऑर्डर, रोजगार और समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति के आकलन में परिलक्षित होता है; हालाँकि, पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में वे कम आशावादी थे (सारणी - ए) ।
- अनुमान है कि कच्चे माल की लागत, वित्तपोषण लागत और वेतन खर्च का दबाव थोड़ा कम हुआ है।
- अनुमान है कि तिमाही के दौरान बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन में बढ़ोतरी हुई है, हालांकि पिछली तिमाही के आकलन की तुलना में मनोभाव कुछ हद तक कम थे।
- विनिर्माण क्षेत्र में व्यापार मूल्यांकन सूचकांक (बीएआई) 2023-24 की तीसरी तिमाही में घटकर 113.9 हो गया, जो की पिछली तिमाही में 115.0 था (चार्ट 1)।
ख. चौथी तिमाही (Q4) 2023-24 के लिए प्रत्याशाएं
- विनिर्माता 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही के दौरान मांग की स्थिति को लेकर आशावादी रहे, हालांकि पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में संभावनाओं का स्तर अपेक्षाकृत कम था (सारणी - ए)।
- इनपुट लागत बढ़ने की संभावना है, हालांकि दबाव का स्तर कम होने की संभावना है।
- सकारात्मक मांग संभावनाओं के अनुरूप, बिक्री मूल्य और लाभ मार्जिन बढ़ने की उम्मीद है।
- व्यापार अपेक्षा सूचकांक (बीईआई) 2023-24 की चौथी तिमाही में 130.3 के उच्च स्तर पर रहा, हालांकि यह पिछली तिमाही के 135.4 के स्तर से कम हुआ (चार्ट 1)।
ग. 2024-25 की पहली और 2024-25 की दूसरी तिमाही के लिए प्रत्याशाएं
- विनिर्माण कंपनियां उत्पादन, क्षमता उपयोग, ऑर्डर बुक, रोजगार की स्थिति और समग्र व्यावसायिक स्थिति पर अत्यधिक आशावादी बनी हुई हैं (सारणी बी) ।
- 2024-25 की पहली अर्धवार्षिक अवधि के दौरान इनपुट लागत का दबाव बने रहने की संभावना है और बिक्री कीमतें भी उसी के अनुरूप रहने की उम्मीद है।
Table A: Summary of Net responses[2] on Survey Parameters (per cent)
| Parameters |
Assessment period |
Expectation period |
| Q2:2023-24 |
Q3:2023-24 |
Q3:2023-24 |
Q4:2023-24 |
| Production |
34.0 |
29.0 |
65.1 |
58.1 |
| Order Books |
30.7 |
26.3 |
62.3 |
55.8 |
| Pending Orders |
3.1 |
3.3 |
-1.1 |
1.1 |
| Capacity Utilisation |
29.5 |
19.6 |
57.5 |
46.7 |
| Inventory of Raw Materials |
-6.1 |
-8.9 |
-27.3 |
-25.7 |
| Inventory of Finished Goods |
-7.2 |
-9.5 |
-28.2 |
-25.3 |
| Exports |
17.7 |
11.6 |
53.1 |
43.6 |
| Imports |
17.2 |
14.5 |
51.0 |
41.0 |
| Employment |
18.0 |
18.2 |
38.8 |
39.5 |
| Financial Situation (Overall) |
30.9 |
25.6 |
63.5 |
54.2 |
| Availability of Finance (from internal accruals) |
30.8 |
23.7 |
59.1 |
47.4 |
| Availability of Finance (from banks & other sources) |
29.1 |
23.2 |
55.8 |
44.5 |
| Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) |
18.6 |
14.2 |
53.5 |
43.9 |
| Cost of Finance |
-26.4 |
-22.5 |
-54.9 |
-45.9 |
| Cost of Raw Material |
-43.8 |
-33.4 |
-65.0 |
-54.2 |
| Salary/ Other Remuneration |
-28.8 |
-26.2 |
-45.6 |
-42.0 |
| Selling Price |
11.7 |
10.2 |
40.1 |
34.8 |
| Profit Margin |
4.5 |
1.4 |
35.8 |
30.8 |
| Overall Business Situation |
34.3 |
28.6 |
67.9 |
58.3 |
Table B: Business Expectations on Select Parameters for extended period – Net response (per cent)
| Parameters |
Round 103 |
Round 104 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
Q4:2023-24 |
Q1:2024:25 |
Q2:2024:25 |
| Overall Business Situation |
67.9 |
58.3 |
58.6 |
62.9 |
| Production |
65.1 |
58.1 |
57.0 |
59.7 |
| Order Books |
62.3 |
55.8 |
58.7 |
61.5 |
| Capacity Utilisation |
57.5 |
46.7 |
53.6 |
56.3 |
| Employment |
38.8 |
39.5 |
44.8 |
43.0 |
| Cost of Raw Materials |
-65.0 |
-54.2 |
-53.2 |
-54.0 |
| Selling Prices |
40.1 |
34.8 |
41.5 |
42.1 |
Note: Please see the excel file for time series data
| Table 1: Assessment and Expectations for Production (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
40.5 |
15.4 |
44.1 |
25.1 |
60.8 |
4.6 |
34.5 |
56.2 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
46.3 |
13.3 |
40.4 |
33.0 |
61.2 |
3.8 |
34.9 |
57.4 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
39.6 |
14.3 |
46.0 |
25.3 |
60.6 |
5.8 |
33.6 |
54.8 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
45.2 |
11.2 |
43.6 |
34.0 |
63.0 |
5.0 |
31.9 |
58.0 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
41.2 |
12.2 |
46.7 |
29.0 |
70.9 |
5.7 |
23.4 |
65.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
62.3 |
4.2 |
33.6 |
58.1 |
| ‘Increase’ in production is optimistic. Note: The sum of components may not add up to total due to rounding off (This is applicable for all tables). |
| Table 2: Assessment and Expectations for Order Books (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
33.1 |
12.1 |
54.8 |
21.0 |
67.1 |
4.7 |
28.3 |
62.4 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
37.2 |
11.8 |
51.0 |
25.4 |
63.3 |
3.9 |
32.8 |
59.4 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
33.0 |
11.1 |
55.9 |
21.9 |
54.6 |
6.8 |
38.6 |
47.8 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
41.1 |
10.4 |
48.5 |
30.7 |
63.0 |
4.8 |
32.2 |
58.1 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
38.3 |
12.0 |
49.7 |
26.3 |
68.5 |
6.1 |
25.4 |
62.3 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
61.8 |
6.0 |
32.1 |
55.8 |
| ‘Increase’ in order books is optimistic. |
| Table 3: Assessment and Expectations for Pending Orders (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
8.4 |
14.6 |
76.9 |
6.2 |
10.8 |
10.1 |
79.2 |
-0.7 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
4.2 |
13.1 |
82.7 |
8.9 |
8.9 |
10.1 |
81.0 |
1.2 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
9.2 |
14.1 |
76.6 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
8.0 |
87.5 |
3.4 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
8.6 |
11.6 |
79.8 |
3.1 |
10.9 |
9.2 |
79.9 |
-1.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
8.6 |
11.9 |
79.4 |
3.3 |
9.7 |
8.5 |
81.8 |
-1.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
8.2 |
9.3 |
82.5 |
1.1 |
| Pending orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic. |
| Table 4: Assessment and Expectations for Capacity Utilisation (Main Product) (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
29.8 |
15.0 |
55.2 |
14.9 |
51.5 |
4.9 |
43.6 |
46.6 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
34.3 |
11.5 |
54.1 |
22.8 |
51.3 |
4.1 |
44.6 |
47.2 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
28.5 |
13.0 |
58.5 |
15.5 |
46.7 |
5.5 |
47.8 |
41.2 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
38.2 |
8.7 |
53.0 |
29.5 |
51.8 |
5.2 |
42.9 |
46.6 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.1 |
10.6 |
59.3 |
19.6 |
62.1 |
4.6 |
33.3 |
57.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
51.2 |
4.6 |
44.2 |
46.7 |
| ‘Increase’ in capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
| Table 5: Assessment and Expectations for Level of CU (compared to the average in last 4 quarters) (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
Above Normal |
Below Normal |
Normal |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
28.7 |
13.2 |
58.1 |
15.5 |
37.0 |
6.1 |
56.9 |
30.9 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
19.8 |
10.5 |
69.7 |
9.3 |
34.7 |
8.1 |
57.2 |
26.7 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
31.4 |
10.4 |
58.2 |
21.0 |
23.7 |
6.2 |
70.2 |
17.5 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
30.5 |
9.0 |
60.6 |
21.5 |
39.0 |
6.0 |
55.1 |
33.0 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
26.2 |
9.4 |
64.4 |
16.7 |
36.1 |
6.1 |
57.8 |
30.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
33.3 |
5.7 |
61.1 |
27.6 |
| ‘Above Normal’ in Level of capacity utilisation is optimistic. |
| Table 6: Assessment and Expectations for Production Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months) (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
More than adequate |
Less than adequate |
Adequate |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
28.9 |
4.4 |
66.7 |
24.6 |
42.9 |
4.5 |
52.7 |
38.4 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
17.3 |
5.7 |
77.0 |
11.6 |
42.7 |
3.3 |
53.9 |
39.4 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
25.8 |
5.7 |
68.4 |
20.1 |
25.3 |
3.8 |
70.9 |
21.5 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
23.3 |
4.0 |
72.7 |
19.3 |
43.4 |
3.9 |
52.7 |
39.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
4.7 |
70.2 |
20.4 |
42.7 |
3.2 |
54.1 |
39.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
38.5 |
3.6 |
57.9 |
34.9 |
| ‘More than adequate’ in Assessment of Production Capacity is optimistic. |
| Table 7: Assessment and Expectations for Exports (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
25.6 |
17.1 |
57.3 |
8.5 |
61.2 |
5.2 |
33.6 |
56.0 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
25.4 |
13.3 |
61.3 |
12.2 |
55.5 |
3.9 |
40.6 |
51.5 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
30.1 |
12.5 |
57.4 |
17.6 |
43.0 |
6.8 |
50.2 |
36.2 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
27.7 |
10.0 |
62.3 |
17.7 |
57.9 |
4.4 |
37.7 |
53.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
13.5 |
61.3 |
11.6 |
58.1 |
5.0 |
36.9 |
53.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
50.3 |
6.7 |
43.0 |
43.6 |
| ‘Increase’ in exports is optimistic. |
| Table 8: Assessment and Expectations for Imports (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
23.8 |
12.2 |
64.0 |
11.6 |
60.8 |
3.2 |
36.0 |
57.6 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
22.6 |
7.3 |
70.1 |
15.3 |
54.3 |
2.8 |
42.9 |
51.5 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
28.9 |
8.6 |
62.5 |
20.4 |
37.4 |
4.2 |
58.4 |
33.2 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
25.5 |
8.2 |
66.3 |
17.2 |
55.8 |
3.2 |
41.0 |
52.6 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
23.2 |
8.7 |
68.0 |
14.5 |
54.8 |
3.9 |
41.3 |
51.0 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
45.2 |
4.2 |
50.6 |
41.0 |
| ‘Increase’ in imports is optimistic. |
| Table 9: Assessment and Expectations for level of Raw Materials Inventory (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
18.1 |
7.3 |
74.6 |
-10.8 |
32.8 |
7.1 |
60.1 |
-25.7 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
13.1 |
4.7 |
82.2 |
-8.3 |
32.4 |
5.6 |
62.0 |
-26.8 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
13.4 |
7.1 |
79.5 |
-6.3 |
20.5 |
2.5 |
76.9 |
-18.0 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
11.5 |
5.3 |
83.2 |
-6.1 |
33.0 |
4.0 |
63.1 |
-29.0 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
12.9 |
4.1 |
83.0 |
-8.9 |
30.9 |
3.6 |
65.6 |
-27.3 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
27.4 |
1.7 |
70.9 |
-25.7 |
| ‘Below average’ Inventory of raw materials is optimistic. |
| Table 10: Assessment and Expectations for level of Finished Goods Inventory (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
Above average |
Below average |
Average |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
17.1 |
7.7 |
75.2 |
-9.5 |
33.4 |
6.9 |
59.7 |
-26.5 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
13.3 |
5.1 |
81.5 |
-8.2 |
31.9 |
5.8 |
62.3 |
-26.1 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
14.0 |
6.8 |
79.2 |
-7.2 |
19.9 |
2.8 |
77.3 |
-17.2 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
11.7 |
4.5 |
83.7 |
-7.2 |
33.2 |
4.4 |
62.4 |
-28.8 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
14.0 |
4.5 |
81.5 |
-9.5 |
31.4 |
3.3 |
65.3 |
-28.2 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
27.3 |
2.0 |
70.7 |
-25.3 |
| ‘Below average’ Inventory of finished goods is optimistic. |
| Table 11: Assessment and Expectations for Employment (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
23.0 |
9.4 |
67.7 |
13.6 |
45.0 |
1.2 |
53.9 |
43.8 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
19.3 |
7.0 |
73.7 |
12.4 |
39.0 |
2.5 |
58.5 |
36.4 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
25.9 |
9.9 |
64.2 |
16.1 |
29.8 |
3.1 |
67.1 |
26.7 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
25.1 |
7.1 |
67.7 |
18.0 |
43.5 |
3.0 |
53.5 |
40.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
25.1 |
6.9 |
67.9 |
18.2 |
42.5 |
3.7 |
53.8 |
38.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
41.7 |
2.2 |
56.1 |
39.5 |
| ‘Increase’ in employment is optimistic. |
| Table 12: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Financial Situation (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
35.6 |
15.5 |
49.0 |
20.1 |
61.4 |
3.8 |
34.8 |
57.7 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
40.2 |
9.6 |
50.2 |
30.6 |
63.9 |
3.3 |
32.8 |
60.6 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
36.6 |
12.6 |
50.7 |
24.0 |
56.3 |
3.4 |
40.3 |
52.9 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
41.6 |
10.7 |
47.7 |
30.9 |
60.2 |
3.9 |
35.9 |
56.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
36.8 |
11.2 |
52.0 |
25.6 |
68.7 |
5.1 |
26.2 |
63.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
58.2 |
4.0 |
37.8 |
54.2 |
| ‘Better’ overall financial situation is optimistic. |
| Table 13: Assessment and Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
35.2 |
7.3 |
57.5 |
27.9 |
51.2 |
1.6 |
47.3 |
49.6 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
36.4 |
4.3 |
59.3 |
32.1 |
52.3 |
1.1 |
46.5 |
51.2 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
34.8 |
5.8 |
59.4 |
29.1 |
48.0 |
1.9 |
50.0 |
46.1 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
38.4 |
5.1 |
56.6 |
33.3 |
53.3 |
2.2 |
44.4 |
51.1 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
32.8 |
6.9 |
60.3 |
26.0 |
60.2 |
2.6 |
37.3 |
57.6 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
49.6 |
2.9 |
47.6 |
46.7 |
| ‘Increase’ in working capital finance is optimistic. |
| Table 14: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from Internal Accruals) (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
31.1 |
9.1 |
59.8 |
21.9 |
51.3 |
2.0 |
46.7 |
49.3 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
33.3 |
4.5 |
62.2 |
28.8 |
55.2 |
1.7 |
43.1 |
53.5 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
33.2 |
7.4 |
59.4 |
25.8 |
48.7 |
2.0 |
49.3 |
46.6 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
37.1 |
6.3 |
56.6 |
30.8 |
54.4 |
2.1 |
43.5 |
52.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.6 |
6.9 |
62.5 |
23.7 |
61.6 |
2.5 |
35.9 |
59.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
49.3 |
2.0 |
48.7 |
47.4 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
| Table 15: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from banks and other sources) (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
26.0 |
9.1 |
64.9 |
17.0 |
56.7 |
1.7 |
41.6 |
55.1 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
27.8 |
4.5 |
67.7 |
23.3 |
50.5 |
1.3 |
48.2 |
49.2 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
26.5 |
6.1 |
67.4 |
20.4 |
42.2 |
2.1 |
55.7 |
40.1 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
34.9 |
5.7 |
59.4 |
29.1 |
50.5 |
1.5 |
47.9 |
49.0 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
28.8 |
5.6 |
65.5 |
23.2 |
58.2 |
2.5 |
39.3 |
55.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
46.5 |
2.1 |
51.4 |
44.5 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
| Table 16: Assessment and Expectations for Availability of Finance (from overseas, if applicable) (per cent) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Improve |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
20.4 |
9.7 |
69.9 |
10.7 |
59.6 |
0.8 |
39.6 |
58.9 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
11.1 |
3.6 |
85.3 |
7.6 |
51.3 |
1.3 |
47.4 |
50.1 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
23.8 |
5.8 |
70.4 |
18.0 |
34.3 |
1.8 |
64.0 |
32.5 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
24.3 |
5.7 |
69.9 |
18.6 |
52.4 |
2.0 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
20.2 |
6.0 |
73.9 |
14.2 |
56.4 |
2.9 |
40.7 |
53.5 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
45.3 |
1.4 |
53.4 |
43.9 |
| ‘Improvement’ in availability of finance is optimistic. |
| Table 17: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Finance (per cent) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
37.0 |
5.9 |
57.1 |
-31.1 |
53.5 |
1.6 |
44.9 |
-51.9 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
36.2 |
3.8 |
60.0 |
-32.4 |
51.6 |
1.1 |
47.3 |
-50.5 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
36.9 |
4.5 |
58.6 |
-32.4 |
47.5 |
1.7 |
50.8 |
-45.8 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
33.0 |
6.6 |
60.4 |
-26.4 |
56.4 |
2.2 |
41.5 |
-54.2 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
29.2 |
6.8 |
64.0 |
-22.5 |
58.5 |
3.6 |
37.9 |
-54.9 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
48.8 |
2.9 |
48.3 |
-45.9 |
| ‘Decrease’ in cost of finance is optimistic. |
| Table 18: Assessment and Expectations for Cost of Raw Materials (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
73.0 |
8.1 |
18.9 |
-64.9 |
66.8 |
2.6 |
30.7 |
-64.2 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
64.5 |
5.4 |
30.2 |
-59.1 |
63.4 |
2.4 |
34.2 |
-60.9 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
49.1 |
8.0 |
42.8 |
-41.1 |
62.6 |
1.7 |
35.8 |
-60.9 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
49.3 |
5.5 |
45.3 |
-43.8 |
60.6 |
2.4 |
37.0 |
-58.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
41.8 |
8.4 |
49.7 |
-33.4 |
67.8 |
2.8 |
29.3 |
-65.0 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
57.0 |
2.9 |
40.1 |
-54.2 |
| ‘Decrease’ in cost of raw materials is optimistic. |
| Table 19: Assessment and Expectations for Salary/Other Remuneration (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
30.1 |
3.1 |
66.8 |
-27.0 |
46.3 |
0.3 |
53.4 |
-46.0 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
23.1 |
1.9 |
75.0 |
-21.2 |
39.3 |
0.6 |
60.0 |
-38.7 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
41.1 |
3.0 |
56.0 |
-38.1 |
45.2 |
0.9 |
53.9 |
-44.3 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
32.3 |
3.5 |
64.2 |
-28.8 |
49.8 |
0.5 |
49.7 |
-49.3 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
30.3 |
4.1 |
65.7 |
-26.2 |
47.3 |
1.7 |
51.0 |
-45.6 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
42.9 |
0.9 |
56.2 |
-42.0 |
| ‘Decrease’ in Salary / other remuneration is optimistic. |
| Table 20: Assessment and Expectations for Selling Price (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
23.3 |
12.9 |
63.8 |
10.4 |
48.8 |
3.7 |
47.5 |
45.1 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
21.6 |
11.8 |
66.6 |
9.7 |
43.2 |
3.6 |
53.1 |
39.6 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
26.1 |
13.3 |
60.6 |
12.8 |
34.0 |
5.6 |
60.4 |
28.4 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
22.3 |
10.6 |
67.1 |
11.7 |
46.9 |
5.4 |
47.7 |
41.4 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
22.0 |
11.9 |
66.1 |
10.2 |
45.2 |
5.2 |
49.6 |
40.1 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
40.4 |
5.6 |
54.0 |
34.8 |
| ‘Increase’ in selling price is optimistic. |
| Table 21: Assessment and Expectations for Profit Margin (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
Increase |
Decrease |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
17.6 |
26.1 |
56.3 |
-8.4 |
44.2 |
9.0 |
46.8 |
35.2 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
16.2 |
21.6 |
62.1 |
-5.4 |
41.0 |
8.1 |
50.9 |
32.9 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
20.6 |
21.8 |
57.5 |
-1.2 |
30.5 |
11.4 |
58.1 |
19.1 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
21.9 |
17.4 |
60.7 |
4.5 |
43.8 |
8.1 |
48.1 |
35.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
20.5 |
19.1 |
60.4 |
1.4 |
45.5 |
9.7 |
44.8 |
35.8 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
40.3 |
9.5 |
50.2 |
30.8 |
| ‘Increase’ in profit margin is optimistic. |
| Table 22: Assessment and Expectations for Overall Business Situation (Percentage responses) |
| Quarter |
Total response |
Assessment |
Expectations |
| Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
Better |
Worsen |
No change |
Net response |
| Q3:2022-23 |
1,356 |
37.7 |
17.4 |
44.9 |
20.3 |
63.8 |
4.4 |
31.7 |
59.4 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
1,066 |
45.9 |
11.4 |
42.7 |
34.4 |
66.9 |
3.7 |
29.4 |
63.1 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
1,247 |
39.9 |
15.0 |
45.1 |
24.9 |
62.4 |
4.0 |
33.6 |
58.3 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
1,223 |
46.0 |
11.8 |
42.2 |
34.3 |
65.0 |
4.3 |
30.7 |
60.7 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
1,040 |
40.6 |
12.0 |
47.4 |
28.6 |
73.1 |
5.2 |
21.7 |
67.9 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
|
|
|
|
62.5 |
4.2 |
33.3 |
58.3 |
| ‘Better’ Overall Business Situation is optimistic. |
| Table 23: Business Sentiments |
| Quarter |
Business Assessment Index (BAI) |
Business Expectations Index (BEI) |
| Q3:2022-23 |
108.6 |
134.4 |
| Q4:2022-23 |
112.2 |
132.9 |
| Q1:2023-24 |
112.2 |
126.4 |
| Q2:2023-24 |
115.0 |
132.5 |
| Q3:2023-24 |
113.9 |
135.4 |
| Q4:2023-24 |
|
130.3 |
[1].सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जिन्हें आवश्यक रूप से रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा साझा नहीं किया जाता है। पिछले सर्वेक्षण दौर के परिणाम 6 अक्टूबर, 202 3 को बैंक की वेबसाइट पर जारी किए गए। [2] Net Response (NR) is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimism. It ranges between -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. In other words, NR = (I – D), where, I is the percentage response of ‘Increase/optimism’, and D is the percentage response of ‘Decrease/pessimism’ and E is the percentage response as ‘no change/equal’ (i.e., I+D+E=100). For example, increase in production is optimism whereas decrease in cost of raw material is optimism. |
