आज, रिजर्व बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं के सर्वेक्षण (IESH)1 के मई 2020 चक्र के परिणाम जारी किए। कोविड-19 महामारी के चलते सर्वेक्षण टेलीफ़ोन पर, मई 5 से मई 17, 2020 के बीच 18 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था। इसके परिणाम 5,761 शहरी परिवारों के प्रत्युत्तरों पर आधारित हैं। विशेष : i. सर्वेक्षण के मार्च 2020 चक्र की तुलना में मई 2020 में परिवारों की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति की धारणाओं और अपेक्षाओं में तीव्र वृद्धि हुई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b]। ii. तीन महीने आगे के लिए मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं मात्रात्मक संदर्भ में अगले वर्ष की मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाओं से आगे निकाल गई [चार्ट 1a, चार्ट 1b; तालिका 3]। iii. पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र की तुलना में, मई 2020 चक्र में परिवारों के तीन महीने आगे और एक वर्ष आगे की मेडियन मुद्रास्फीति अपेक्षाएं क्रमशः 190 और 120 आधार अंक से बढ़ गई [तालिका 3]। iv. खाद्य उत्पादों पर मूल्य बढ़ने के दबाव की अपेक्षा करते हुये, अधिक परिवारों ने सामान्य कीमतों और मुद्रास्फीति में पिछले दौर की तुलना में अगले तीन महीने में वृद्धि की उम्मीद की है [तालिका 1a]। हालांकि, सभी उत्पाद समूहों की कीमतें, विशेष रूप से आवास की कीमतें, अगले एक वर्ष में कम होने की उम्मीद है [तालिका 1b]।
नोट: कृपया समय श्रृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें।
Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
May-19 |
Nov-19 |
Jan-20 |
Mar-20 |
May-20 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
78.3 |
1.01 |
80.7 |
0.90 |
83.2 |
0.87 |
83.3 |
0.79 |
85.3 |
0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.0 |
1.22 |
52.4 |
1.22 |
56.1 |
1.16 |
52.5 |
1.10 |
56.0 |
1.02 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
25.6 |
1.01 |
23.4 |
0.96 |
23.4 |
0.91 |
25.6 |
0.99 |
23.5 |
0.89 |
Price increase less than current rate |
2.8 |
0.32 |
4.9 |
0.55 |
3.6 |
0.37 |
5.2 |
0.56 |
5.8 |
0.49 |
No changes in prices |
18.4 |
0.96 |
17.3 |
0.84 |
14.4 |
0.81 |
14.9 |
0.76 |
12.4 |
0.69 |
Decline in prices |
3.3 |
0.35 |
1.9 |
0.26 |
2.4 |
0.31 |
1.8 |
0.25 |
2.3 |
0.32 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
78.5 |
0.87 |
81.8 |
0.80 |
81.7 |
0.80 |
81.9 |
0.81 |
84.6 |
0.75 |
Price increase more than current rate |
48.5 |
1.13 |
54.8 |
1.14 |
56.0 |
1.11 |
55.4 |
1.02 |
58.6 |
1.00 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.7 |
0.94 |
21.0 |
0.85 |
20.1 |
0.85 |
20.0 |
0.88 |
20.0 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.4 |
0.46 |
6.0 |
0.54 |
5.5 |
0.45 |
6.5 |
0.56 |
6.0 |
0.49 |
No changes in prices |
15.0 |
0.77 |
12.3 |
0.65 |
11.2 |
0.67 |
12.4 |
0.68 |
10.7 |
0.64 |
Decline in prices |
6.5 |
0.47 |
5.9 |
0.48 |
7.2 |
0.50 |
5.7 |
0.43 |
4.7 |
0.45 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
75.8 |
0.91 |
75.3 |
0.93 |
77.8 |
0.91 |
77.8 |
0.87 |
76.7 |
0.88 |
Price increase more than current rate |
45.2 |
1.15 |
48.0 |
1.14 |
51.4 |
1.15 |
50.8 |
1.00 |
49.5 |
0.99 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
25.3 |
0.91 |
21.1 |
0.86 |
21.2 |
0.88 |
20.8 |
0.89 |
20.8 |
0.82 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.4 |
0.44 |
6.1 |
0.53 |
5.3 |
0.43 |
6.2 |
0.50 |
6.4 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
18.1 |
0.81 |
20.5 |
0.83 |
17.7 |
0.82 |
17.7 |
0.79 |
17.8 |
0.79 |
Decline in prices |
6.0 |
0.47 |
4.3 |
0.39 |
4.4 |
0.39 |
4.5 |
0.42 |
5.5 |
0.49 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
61.3 |
1.12 |
55.2 |
1.09 |
60.3 |
1.02 |
64.5 |
1.02 |
55.1 |
1.04 |
Price increase more than current rate |
37.0 |
1.12 |
35.4 |
1.06 |
37.9 |
1.03 |
42.3 |
1.03 |
33.6 |
0.96 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
0.85 |
15.2 |
0.73 |
17.5 |
0.76 |
17.2 |
0.80 |
16.4 |
0.76 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.3 |
0.41 |
4.6 |
0.44 |
4.8 |
0.43 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
5.1 |
0.44 |
No changes in prices |
27.2 |
1.01 |
29.1 |
0.93 |
26.8 |
0.91 |
24.2 |
0.90 |
29.7 |
0.94 |
Decline in prices |
11.5 |
0.64 |
15.8 |
0.73 |
12.9 |
0.65 |
11.2 |
0.63 |
15.2 |
0.76 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
70.9 |
1.06 |
68.5 |
1.09 |
69.7 |
1.04 |
71.0 |
1.07 |
48.6 |
1.01 |
Price increase more than current rate |
46.9 |
1.13 |
48.3 |
1.19 |
48.4 |
1.10 |
49.5 |
1.10 |
30.2 |
0.93 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.8 |
0.83 |
16.4 |
0.77 |
17.3 |
0.74 |
17.4 |
0.78 |
13.6 |
0.69 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.2 |
0.39 |
3.8 |
0.41 |
4.0 |
0.40 |
4.2 |
0.39 |
4.8 |
0.45 |
No changes in prices |
21.7 |
0.96 |
24.0 |
0.99 |
22.0 |
0.95 |
22.1 |
0.96 |
30.3 |
0.93 |
Decline in prices |
7.3 |
0.52 |
7.4 |
0.53 |
8.3 |
0.54 |
6.9 |
0.52 |
21.1 |
0.83 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
68.6 |
1.03 |
65.8 |
1.05 |
72.5 |
0.98 |
70.8 |
0.99 |
68.3 |
0.97 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.6 |
1.14 |
43.6 |
1.14 |
46.4 |
1.13 |
46.2 |
1.02 |
43.2 |
0.99 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.7 |
0.89 |
17.7 |
0.79 |
21.1 |
0.81 |
19.3 |
0.84 |
19.3 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.3 |
0.41 |
4.5 |
0.46 |
4.9 |
0.43 |
5.2 |
0.44 |
5.9 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
27.7 |
0.99 |
29.5 |
1.01 |
23.4 |
0.90 |
25.9 |
0.94 |
27.4 |
0.93 |
Decline in prices |
3.8 |
0.37 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
4.1 |
0.38 |
3.3 |
0.34 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
May-19 |
Nov-19 |
Jan-20 |
Mar-20 |
May-20 |
General |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Prices will increase |
86.3 |
0.77 |
89.1 |
0.71 |
88.1 |
0.74 |
89.2 |
0.65 |
85.6 |
0.73 |
Price increase more than current rate |
58.5 |
1.19 |
64.0 |
1.25 |
63.6 |
1.13 |
60.7 |
1.07 |
57.1 |
1.00 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.9 |
1.03 |
21.5 |
0.96 |
21.4 |
0.88 |
24.8 |
1.00 |
23.8 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.0 |
0.32 |
3.6 |
0.44 |
3.2 |
0.37 |
3.7 |
0.42 |
4.7 |
0.43 |
No changes in prices |
10.2 |
0.70 |
8.9 |
0.64 |
9.5 |
0.67 |
9.0 |
0.62 |
11.9 |
0.67 |
Decline in prices |
3.5 |
0.37 |
2.0 |
0.28 |
2.4 |
0.30 |
1.8 |
0.26 |
2.5 |
0.33 |
Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
83.1 |
0.76 |
86.2 |
0.74 |
84.8 |
0.73 |
85.6 |
0.73 |
77.3 |
0.86 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.4 |
1.19 |
58.9 |
1.24 |
56.0 |
1.14 |
55.6 |
1.10 |
46.9 |
1.01 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
27.6 |
0.97 |
22.4 |
0.90 |
24.3 |
0.93 |
24.3 |
0.93 |
24.2 |
0.88 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.1 |
0.43 |
5.0 |
0.49 |
4.5 |
0.40 |
5.7 |
0.49 |
6.3 |
0.51 |
No changes in prices |
11.4 |
0.64 |
9.4 |
0.61 |
9.8 |
0.59 |
10.3 |
0.64 |
15.7 |
0.74 |
Decline in prices |
5.5 |
0.43 |
4.4 |
0.39 |
5.4 |
0.42 |
4.1 |
0.37 |
6.9 |
0.52 |
Non- Food Product |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
81.3 |
0.81 |
81.0 |
0.82 |
81.6 |
0.80 |
82.3 |
0.81 |
73.3 |
0.92 |
Price increase more than current rate |
49.7 |
1.18 |
53.5 |
1.23 |
53.1 |
1.14 |
53.6 |
1.08 |
42.6 |
0.99 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
26.8 |
0.99 |
22.6 |
0.92 |
23.5 |
0.88 |
23.4 |
0.92 |
23.9 |
0.87 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.9 |
0.44 |
4.9 |
0.51 |
5.1 |
0.44 |
5.3 |
0.47 |
6.8 |
0.51 |
No changes in prices |
13.7 |
0.72 |
15.5 |
0.72 |
14.1 |
0.72 |
14.2 |
0.73 |
20.7 |
0.84 |
Decline in prices |
5.0 |
0.43 |
3.6 |
0.36 |
4.3 |
0.39 |
3.4 |
0.36 |
6.0 |
0.49 |
Household Durables |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
68.8 |
1.04 |
65.4 |
1.00 |
68.0 |
0.96 |
70.8 |
1.02 |
59.6 |
1.03 |
Price increase more than current rate |
42.9 |
1.14 |
42.7 |
1.16 |
44.0 |
1.10 |
46.6 |
1.09 |
34.8 |
0.99 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.9 |
0.88 |
18.1 |
0.80 |
20.0 |
0.80 |
19.8 |
0.86 |
19.1 |
0.79 |
Price increase less than current rate |
4.0 |
0.40 |
4.6 |
0.46 |
4.0 |
0.40 |
4.4 |
0.42 |
5.7 |
0.47 |
No changes in prices |
21.5 |
0.91 |
22.5 |
0.84 |
21.2 |
0.84 |
19.7 |
0.87 |
28.4 |
0.93 |
Decline in prices |
9.7 |
0.59 |
12.1 |
0.62 |
10.7 |
0.60 |
9.5 |
0.59 |
12.1 |
0.67 |
Cost of Housing |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
79.8 |
0.84 |
80.0 |
0.92 |
77.8 |
0.89 |
79.9 |
0.90 |
59.7 |
1.00 |
Price increase more than current rate |
54.3 |
1.05 |
57.1 |
1.20 |
54.7 |
1.09 |
56.5 |
1.03 |
36.9 |
0.98 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
21.9 |
0.84 |
19.1 |
0.85 |
19.0 |
0.83 |
19.6 |
0.82 |
17.3 |
0.77 |
Price increase less than current rate |
3.6 |
0.37 |
3.9 |
0.41 |
4.1 |
0.39 |
3.8 |
0.39 |
5.5 |
0.46 |
No changes in prices |
14.3 |
0.77 |
13.9 |
0.76 |
15.0 |
0.77 |
14.5 |
0.78 |
25.1 |
0.89 |
Decline in prices |
5.9 |
0.45 |
6.1 |
0.48 |
7.2 |
0.50 |
5.5 |
0.47 |
15.2 |
0.73 |
Cost of Services |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Prices will increase |
80.9 |
0.83 |
80.9 |
0.87 |
82.5 |
0.79 |
81.4 |
0.85 |
74.4 |
0.91 |
Price increase more than current rate |
50.3 |
1.12 |
53.7 |
1.23 |
54.6 |
1.15 |
53.0 |
1.09 |
44.6 |
0.98 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
25.3 |
0.94 |
22.3 |
0.86 |
23.0 |
0.87 |
23.3 |
0.90 |
23.1 |
0.85 |
Price increase less than current rate |
5.3 |
0.49 |
4.9 |
0.51 |
4.9 |
0.44 |
5.0 |
0.44 |
6.7 |
0.50 |
No changes in prices |
15.5 |
0.77 |
15.9 |
0.77 |
14.6 |
0.72 |
16.0 |
0.81 |
22.1 |
0.87 |
Decline in prices |
3.6 |
0.36 |
3.2 |
0.36 |
2.9 |
0.33 |
2.7 |
0.30 |
3.5 |
0.38 |
Note: 1. The table provides estimates and standard errors for qualitative responses. 2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off. |
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May 2020 |
|
Current Perception |
Three Months ahead Expectation |
One Year ahead Expectation |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Overall |
9.6 |
0.09 |
9.3 |
0.28 |
10.6 |
0.09 |
10.4 |
0.06 |
9.7 |
0.12 |
10.2 |
0.07 |
Gender-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Male |
9.7 |
0.11 |
9.5 |
0.33 |
10.6 |
0.11 |
10.4 |
0.08 |
9.6 |
0.14 |
10.2 |
0.09 |
Female |
9.5 |
0.14 |
9.2 |
0.32 |
10.6 |
0.14 |
10.3 |
0.09 |
9.7 |
0.18 |
10.2 |
0.12 |
Category-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financial Sector Employees |
9.6 |
0.39 |
9.1 |
0.88 |
10.6 |
0.43 |
10.1 |
0.62 |
9.8 |
0.51 |
9.7 |
0.91 |
Other Employees |
9.5 |
0.16 |
8.8 |
0.27 |
10.6 |
0.16 |
10.3 |
0.11 |
9.8 |
0.20 |
10.2 |
0.12 |
Self Employed |
9.8 |
0.16 |
9.6 |
0.41 |
10.6 |
0.16 |
10.4 |
0.11 |
9.7 |
0.20 |
10.2 |
0.16 |
Homemaker |
9.4 |
0.16 |
8.9 |
0.29 |
10.5 |
0.16 |
10.2 |
0.10 |
9.4 |
0.20 |
10.0 |
0.29 |
Retired Persons |
9.8 |
0.39 |
9.8 |
0.66 |
10.7 |
0.39 |
10.5 |
0.34 |
9.6 |
0.45 |
10.2 |
0.56 |
Daily Workers |
10.1 |
0.23 |
10.0 |
0.23 |
11.1 |
0.22 |
10.8 |
0.28 |
10.2 |
0.28 |
10.6 |
0.20 |
Other category |
9.3 |
0.23 |
8.6 |
0.49 |
10.3 |
0.22 |
10.2 |
0.14 |
9.9 |
0.25 |
10.3 |
0.16 |
Age Group-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Up to 25 years |
9.1 |
0.17 |
8.4 |
0.34 |
10.4 |
0.17 |
10.2 |
0.12 |
9.8 |
0.21 |
10.2 |
0.14 |
25 to 30 years |
9.5 |
0.18 |
9.1 |
0.40 |
10.6 |
0.17 |
10.3 |
0.14 |
9.9 |
0.21 |
10.2 |
0.19 |
30 to 35 years |
9.3 |
0.19 |
8.7 |
0.37 |
10.3 |
0.19 |
10.2 |
0.18 |
9.3 |
0.23 |
9.4 |
0.55 |
35 to 40 years |
9.6 |
0.18 |
9.2 |
0.40 |
10.6 |
0.18 |
10.3 |
0.12 |
9.5 |
0.21 |
9.9 |
0.36 |
40 to 45 years |
10.0 |
0.20 |
10.0 |
0.29 |
10.9 |
0.19 |
10.5 |
0.15 |
10.2 |
0.24 |
10.6 |
0.16 |
45 to 50 years |
9.7 |
0.22 |
9.4 |
0.45 |
10.7 |
0.22 |
10.4 |
0.13 |
9.7 |
0.26 |
10.2 |
0.34 |
50 to 55 years |
9.8 |
0.28 |
9.7 |
0.54 |
10.6 |
0.28 |
10.4 |
0.20 |
9.8 |
0.34 |
10.2 |
0.28 |
55 to 60 years |
9.7 |
0.30 |
9.3 |
0.54 |
10.7 |
0.28 |
10.4 |
0.23 |
9.6 |
0.35 |
10.1 |
0.36 |
60 years and above |
10.0 |
0.32 |
10.1 |
0.32 |
11.0 |
0.32 |
10.8 |
0.51 |
10.2 |
0.39 |
10.6 |
0.39 |
City-wise |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ahmedabad |
10.5 |
0.34 |
10.3 |
0.26 |
11.6 |
0.33 |
11.5 |
0.79 |
9.8 |
0.48 |
10.5 |
0.68 |
Bengaluru |
9.8 |
0.28 |
10.1 |
0.25 |
10.6 |
0.28 |
10.4 |
0.24 |
10.2 |
0.34 |
10.5 |
0.31 |
Bhopal |
11.1 |
0.64 |
10.9 |
1.16 |
11.7 |
0.62 |
12.0 |
1.68 |
9.7 |
0.82 |
10.8 |
1.50 |
Bhubaneswar |
8.5 |
0.79 |
7.7 |
1.73 |
10.3 |
0.72 |
9.7 |
1.40 |
9.8 |
0.92 |
9.3 |
1.94 |
Chennai |
10.6 |
0.39 |
10.4 |
0.15 |
11.6 |
0.35 |
11.2 |
0.86 |
11.5 |
0.42 |
12.0 |
1.33 |
Delhi |
8.2 |
0.23 |
6.9 |
0.50 |
9.1 |
0.23 |
8.2 |
0.30 |
8.3 |
0.27 |
8.1 |
0.31 |
Guwahati |
9.6 |
0.57 |
9.5 |
1.30 |
10.0 |
0.60 |
9.6 |
1.16 |
8.4 |
0.94 |
7.7 |
1.28 |
Hyderabad |
10.3 |
0.37 |
10.3 |
0.27 |
12.1 |
0.34 |
13.1 |
1.11 |
12.0 |
0.41 |
14.0 |
1.11 |
Jaipur |
10.1 |
0.57 |
9.9 |
0.66 |
10.8 |
0.52 |
10.7 |
0.59 |
8.7 |
0.65 |
9.3 |
0.99 |
Kolkata |
10.8 |
0.30 |
10.4 |
0.18 |
11.5 |
0.29 |
11.3 |
0.88 |
10.9 |
0.35 |
10.9 |
0.62 |
Lucknow |
8.8 |
0.43 |
8.8 |
0.57 |
9.9 |
0.49 |
10.2 |
0.57 |
9.7 |
0.49 |
10.3 |
0.31 |
Mumbai |
10.0 |
0.23 |
9.0 |
0.37 |
10.9 |
0.23 |
10.3 |
0.19 |
8.8 |
0.32 |
9.3 |
0.61 |
Nagpur |
8.4 |
0.42 |
7.9 |
0.66 |
10.1 |
0.47 |
9.9 |
0.46 |
9.2 |
0.64 |
9.7 |
0.72 |
Patna |
9.4 |
0.50 |
9.7 |
0.31 |
10.9 |
0.69 |
11.1 |
0.69 |
11.0 |
0.76 |
11.6 |
1.14 |
Thiruvananthapuram |
6.3 |
0.65 |
5.2 |
0.33 |
8.1 |
0.82 |
6.6 |
0.64 |
8.5 |
0.86 |
7.4 |
0.79 |
Chandigarh |
8.1 |
0.54 |
8.3 |
0.58 |
8.0 |
0.54 |
8.0 |
0.69 |
7.5 |
0.60 |
7.9 |
0.82 |
Ranchi |
7.8 |
0.53 |
7.0 |
0.66 |
8.7 |
0.60 |
8.0 |
0.88 |
7.5 |
0.72 |
7.2 |
0.72 |
Raipur |
8.7 |
0.63 |
7.9 |
0.79 |
10.4 |
0.63 |
9.9 |
0.74 |
10.2 |
0.79 |
10.1 |
0.72 |
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses. |
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations |
|
Current Perception |
Three Months ahead Expectation |
One Year ahead Expectation |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Mean |
Median |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
Estimate |
SE |
May-19 |
7.8 |
0.10 |
6.6 |
0.15 |
8.6 |
0.10 |
7.6 |
0.12 |
8.4 |
0.12 |
8.1 |
0.16 |
Nov-19 |
9.1 |
0.10 |
8.2 |
0.17 |
9.8 |
0.11 |
9.2 |
0.23 |
9.7 |
0.12 |
9.9 |
0.19 |
Jan-20 |
8.7 |
0.11 |
7.6 |
0.19 |
9.5 |
0.11 |
8.6 |
0.16 |
9.3 |
0.13 |
9.2 |
0.25 |
Mar-20 |
8.4 |
0.09 |
7.6 |
0.12 |
9.2 |
0.10 |
8.5 |
0.11 |
9.1 |
0.11 |
9.0 |
0.18 |
May-20 |
9.6 |
0.09 |
9.3 |
0.28 |
10.6 |
0.09 |
10.4 |
0.06 |
9.7 |
0.12 |
10.2 |
0.07 |
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors for quantitative responses. |
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead |
(Percentage of Respondents) |
Survey period ended |
Food |
Non-Food |
Households durables |
Housing |
Cost of services |
Three Months Ahead |
May-19 |
66.4 |
65.4 |
56.8 |
62.0 |
66.2 |
Nov-19 |
64.7 |
65.1 |
51.0 |
60.7 |
63.1 |
Jan-20 |
66.1 |
66.2 |
53.4 |
59.3 |
64.5 |
Mar-20 |
65.4 |
64.6 |
55.8 |
61.1 |
64.7 |
May-20 |
63.3 |
59.8 |
46.5 |
42.6 |
57.3 |
One Year Ahead |
May-19 |
71.6 |
71.3 |
62.7 |
70.7 |
72.5 |
Nov-19 |
73.9 |
70.9 |
57.8 |
69.7 |
72.3 |
Jan-20 |
72.2 |
70.9 |
60.3 |
67.8 |
72.8 |
Mar-20 |
71.9 |
71.8 |
63.2 |
69.9 |
72.3 |
May-20 |
62.3 |
59.5 |
50.9 |
50.3 |
62.3 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2020 |
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent) |
Current Inflation Rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-<2 |
2-<3 |
3-<4 |
4-<5 |
5-<6 |
6-<7 |
7-<8 |
8-<9 |
9-<10 |
10-<11 |
11-<12 |
12-<13 |
13-<14 |
14-<15 |
15-<16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
14 |
3 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
31 |
1-<2 |
0 |
19 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
2-<3 |
0 |
6 |
80 |
56 |
38 |
16 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
213 |
3-<4 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
97 |
40 |
76 |
21 |
7 |
5 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
256 |
4-<5 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
122 |
68 |
73 |
17 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
312 |
5-<6 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
26 |
19 |
368 |
99 |
148 |
87 |
12 |
130 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
4 |
0 |
931 |
6-<7 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
10 |
131 |
56 |
51 |
19 |
26 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
316 |
7-<8 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
7 |
167 |
50 |
54 |
59 |
6 |
9 |
0 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
0 |
379 |
8-<9 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
12 |
8 |
0 |
150 |
36 |
112 |
8 |
24 |
9 |
1 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
379 |
9-<10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
74 |
39 |
20 |
33 |
6 |
4 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
196 |
10-<11 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
42 |
5 |
9 |
18 |
12 |
436 |
35 |
159 |
37 |
8 |
249 |
120 |
1 |
1136 |
11-<12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
40 |
12-<13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
1 |
34 |
14 |
11 |
29 |
8 |
0 |
103 |
13-<14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
0 |
21 |
14-<15 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
4 |
11 |
0 |
29 |
15-<16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
89 |
152 |
0 |
265 |
>=16 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
36 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
38 |
1017 |
6 |
1119 |
Total |
25 |
35 |
117 |
204 |
232 |
615 |
354 |
415 |
377 |
209 |
869 |
88 |
285 |
78 |
46 |
464 |
1340 |
8 |
5761 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May 2020 |
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent) |
Current Inflation Rate (per cent) |
|
<1 |
1-<2 |
2-<3 |
3-<4 |
4-<5 |
5-<6 |
6-<7 |
7-<8 |
8-<9 |
9-<10 |
10-<11 |
11-<12 |
12-<13 |
13-<14 |
14-<15 |
15-<16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
<1 |
12 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
31 |
1-<2 |
9 |
10 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
35 |
2-<3 |
18 |
2 |
62 |
42 |
34 |
24 |
12 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
213 |
3-<4 |
34 |
0 |
4 |
55 |
34 |
62 |
26 |
12 |
13 |
2 |
11 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
256 |
4-<5 |
33 |
0 |
7 |
7 |
89 |
47 |
60 |
19 |
26 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
312 |
5-<6 |
121 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
255 |
65 |
120 |
89 |
20 |
170 |
4 |
18 |
7 |
2 |
21 |
11 |
2 |
931 |
6-<7 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
90 |
40 |
45 |
19 |
42 |
7 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
316 |
7-<8 |
60 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
113 |
48 |
35 |
60 |
2 |
14 |
0 |
11 |
10 |
6 |
1 |
379 |
8-<9 |
57 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
85 |
30 |
92 |
23 |
35 |
8 |
6 |
13 |
16 |
0 |
379 |
9-<10 |
25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
45 |
31 |
24 |
19 |
10 |
15 |
18 |
7 |
0 |
196 |
10-<11 |
158 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
22 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
4 |
282 |
33 |
112 |
37 |
20 |
223 |
221 |
2 |
1136 |
11-<12 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
13 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
0 |
40 |
12-<13 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
27 |
8 |
16 |
21 |
20 |
0 |
103 |
13-<14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
0 |
21 |
14-<15 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
0 |
16 |
0 |
29 |
15-<16 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
51 |
153 |
2 |
265 |
>=16 |
156 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
27 |
892 |
6 |
1119 |
Total |
778 |
20 |
89 |
134 |
178 |
436 |
267 |
326 |
322 |
158 |
747 |
111 |
244 |
82 |
87 |
400 |
1369 |
13 |
5761 |
Note: Figures are based on sample observations |
|