RBI Bulletin – April 2024 - ಆರ್ಬಿಐ - Reserve Bank of India
RBI Bulletin – April 2024
Today, the Reserve Bank released the April 2024 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes Monetary Policy Statement (April 3-5) 2024-2025, five speeches, six articles, and current statistics. The six articles are: I. State of the Economy; II. What Drives India's Services Exports?; III. Food and Fuel Prices: Second Round Effects on Headline Inflation in India; IV. India's Foreign Exchange Reserves in High Volatility Episodes – An Empirical Assessment; V. Gauging Linguistic Complexity of Regulatory Communication: A Case Study for India; and VI. Off-site Monitoring System for Surveys (OMOSYS): A Geographic Information System (GIS) Based Approach for Quality Assurance. I. State of the Economy Global growth momentum has been sustained in the first quarter of 2024 and the outlook for global trade is turning positive. Treasury yields and mortgage rates are ticking up in major economies as expectations of interest rate cuts are being pared. In India, conditions are shaping up for an extension of a trend upshift in real GDP growth, backed by strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments. CPI inflation has gravitated to 4.9 per cent in March after averaging 5.1 per cent in the preceding two months. In the near term, however, extreme weather events may pose a risk to inflation along with prolonged geo-political tensions that could keep crude oil prices volatile. II. What Drives India’s Services Exports? By Dhirendra Gajbhiye, Sujata Kundu, Rajas Saroy, Deepika Rawat, Alisha George, Omkar Vinherkar and Khushi Sinha Over the last three decades, India's services export growth not only outpaced merchandise export growth, but also captured a larger share of world exports. This article offers a detailed analysis of India’s major services exports and provides deeper insights into key issues such as the contribution of price and volume effects, the long-term trend, revealed comparative advantage and price and income elasticities. Highlights:
III. Food and Fuel Prices: Second Round Effects on Headline Inflation in India By Harendra Kumar Behera and Abhishek Ranjan Policymakers face challenges in dealing with high inflation emanating from supply shocks as it is difficult to know ex ante the nature of these shocks, permanent or temporary, and whether they are going to have second-round effects. Employing a time-varying approach, this article estimates the impact of food and fuel price shocks on core inflation to know whether these shocks could potentially lead to second-round effects. Highlights:
IV. India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves in High Volatility Episodes – An Empirical Assessment By Saurabh Nath, Dipak R. Chaudhari, Vikram Rajput and Gaurav Tiwari This article analyses the trend in India’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves during major high volatility episodes viz., Global Financial Crisis, Eurozone debt crisis/ Taper Tantrum, EME outflows/ US-China trade war and the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict / monetary policy tightening in the US. The article empirically examines major underlying factors impacting variation in FX reserves such as US Dollar Index (DXY), oil prices, foreign portfolio flows, US financial conditions and market volatility. Highlights:
V. Gauging Linguistic Complexity of Regulatory Communication: A Case Study for India By Nishita Raje, Khaijamang Mate, Sayli Londhe, Sandhya Kuruganti With increased scope and scale of regulation, there is growing awareness for adoption of simple or plain language in central bank’s regulations. This article attempts to measure the linguistic complexity of written regulatory communication in India. It analyses a set of circulars issued by the Department of Regulation (DoR), Reserve Bank of India. The focus is on the complexity of the language used in regulatory communication rather than complexity implicit in regulation by the very nature of the area/aspect that is being regulated. It aims to capture various dimensions of linguistic complexity and contributes towards developing a multifaceted understanding of the subject. Highlights:
VI. Off-site Monitoring System for Surveys (OMOSYS): A Geographic Information System (GIS) Based Approach for Quality Assurance By Sukhbir Singh and Vishal Maurya This article presents the Off-Site Monitoring System for Surveys (OMOSYS), aimed at ensuring data quality in geographically extensive field surveys. Highlights:
The views expressed in the Bulletin articles are of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. (Yogesh Dayal) Press Release: 2024-2025/164 |