Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

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പ്രസിദ്ധീകരിച്ചത് ജൂൺ 06, 2025

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Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of May 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)¹ ². The survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 6,079 valid responses.

Highlights:

Households’ median perception of current inflation declined further by 10 basis points (bps) to 7.7 per cent, when compared to March 2025 round of the survey; their inflation expectations for the next three months remained unchanged while their one year ahead expectation moderated by 20 bps [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].
For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation has come down vis-à-vis the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Price and inflationary pressures eased across major product groups including food products and non-food items [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data³

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	May-24		Nov-24		Jan-25		Mar-25		May-25
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	80.6	0.81	79.3	0.89	81.6	0.79	80.7	0.87	80.5	0.86
Price increase more than current rate	59.1	1.13	53.6	1.24	57.9	1.11	54.7	1.15	54.4	1.24
Price increase similar to current rate	17.5	0.83	19.9	0.87	19.2	0.86	20.8	0.86	22.0	0.92
Price increase less than current rate	4.0	0.43	5.8	0.49	4.4	0.44	5.2	0.47	4.1	0.42
No changes in prices	16.6	0.77	18.7	0.87	16.5	0.76	17.3	0.84	17.5	0.83
Decline in prices	2.8	0.32	2.0	0.29	2.0	0.29	2.0	0.27	2.0	0.30
Food Product
Prices will increase	81.8	0.74	83.9	0.75	83.2	0.77	83.1	0.77	82.8	0.79
Price increase more than current rate	61.0	1.07	60.7	1.08	59.3	1.03	57.8	1.09	55.8	1.11
Price increase similar to current rate	15.3	0.74	17.0	0.81	17.3	0.78	18.3	0.79	17.7	0.80
Price increase less than current rate	5.5	0.46	6.2	0.50	6.7	0.53	7.0	0.54	9.3	0.62
No changes in prices	12.1	0.64	11.1	0.64	11.5	0.66	12.2	0.69	11.9	0.66
Decline in prices	6.1	0.46	5.0	0.44	5.3	0.45	4.7	0.40	5.4	0.45
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	75.0	0.85	75.9	0.90	75.2	0.86	75.6	0.89	75.3	0.92
Price increase more than current rate	53.7	1.11	51.7	1.14	52.5	1.04	53.3	1.07	51.5	1.14
Price increase similar to current rate	15.6	0.72	17.9	0.78	16.8	0.74	15.3	0.74	17.5	0.75
Price increase less than current rate	5.7	0.50	6.3	0.50	6.0	0.47	7.0	0.54	6.2	0.50
No changes in prices	19.3	0.78	19.9	0.85	20.4	0.79	20.2	0.82	20.2	0.83
Decline in prices	5.7	0.43	4.2	0.39	4.4	0.40	4.2	0.39	4.6	0.40
Household Durables
Prices will increase	68.2	0.94	66.5	1.00	67.0	0.99	66.7	0.98	66.3	1.01
Price increase more than current rate	48.3	1.10	46.3	1.11	46.9	1.09	45.2	1.11	45.5	1.12
Price increase similar to current rate	15.2	0.74	14.5	0.70	14.7	0.71	15.8	0.74	15.3	0.69
Price increase less than current rate	4.7	0.44	5.7	0.50	5.4	0.45	5.8	0.51	5.5	0.46
No changes in prices	23.4	0.86	24.8	0.89	25.3	0.92	24.6	0.90	26.6	0.94
Decline in prices	8.5	0.53	8.7	0.55	7.8	0.50	8.6	0.52	7.1	0.50
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	80.4	0.81	78.9	0.85	78.5	0.91	78.0	0.88	78.3	0.93
Price increase more than current rate	59.3	1.06	57.4	1.14	58.0	1.10	56.5	1.09	57.1	1.16
Price increase similar to current rate	16.7	0.77	16.4	0.76	15.6	0.75	16.0	0.73	16.7	0.75
Price increase less than current rate	4.3	0.44	5.1	0.46	4.9	0.44	5.4	0.48	4.4	0.41
No changes in prices	16.7	0.77	18.2	0.79	18.3	0.87	19.1	0.84	19.1	0.88
Decline in prices	3.0	0.34	2.9	0.33	3.2	0.36	2.9	0.34	2.6	0.31
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	68.6	0.98	66.3	0.99	68.4	0.99	69.3	0.98	69.9	0.97
Price increase more than current rate	49.2	1.12	46.6	1.12	48.2	1.10	49.0	1.10	49.7	1.13
Price increase similar to current rate	14.4	0.68	14.8	0.70	14.9	0.74	14.9	0.71	15.9	0.73
Price increase less than current rate	5.0	0.46	5.0	0.44	5.4	0.45	5.3	0.46	4.3	0.41
No changes in prices	27.3	0.94	30.7	0.98	28.4	0.96	27.8	0.95	28.0	0.97
Decline in prices	4.1	0.39	2.9	0.33	3.1	0.36	3.0	0.34	2.1	0.27
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	May-24		Nov-24		Jan-25		Mar-25		May-25
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	89.1	0.64	89.6	0.67	90.6	0.62	89.7	0.67	89.2	0.68
Price increase more than current rate	67.9	1.14	66.9	1.14	68.7	1.06	65.4	1.12	64.7	1.18
Price increase similar to current rate	17.8	0.90	18.6	0.85	18.1	0.87	19.7	0.88	21.5	0.97
Price increase less than current rate	3.5	0.41	4.1	0.40	3.8	0.43	4.6	0.44	3.0	0.38
No changes in prices	7.9	0.56	8.2	0.62	7.4	0.55	8.4	0.62	8.8	0.61
Decline in prices	3.0	0.34	2.2	0.30	2.0	0.29	1.9	0.27	2.0	0.26
Food Product
Prices will increase	86.0	0.68	89.0	0.66	88.8	0.65	87.9	0.66	87.0	0.66
Price increase more than current rate	62.8	1.10	64.4	1.13	63.5	1.10	60.8	1.09	59.2	1.10
Price increase similar to current rate	18.3	0.86	19.3	0.87	19.7	0.89	21.1	0.83	20.3	0.86
Price increase less than current rate	4.9	0.49	5.3	0.48	5.6	0.51	6.1	0.49	7.5	0.57
No changes in prices	9.3	0.58	7.3	0.53	7.7	0.55	8.9	0.58	10.0	0.58
Decline in prices	4.7	0.39	3.7	0.38	3.5	0.36	3.2	0.33	3.0	0.32
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	82.1	0.79	81.9	0.81	83.3	0.78	82.6	0.78	81.9	0.78
Price increase more than current rate	59.8	1.13	56.7	1.19	59.4	1.16	56.7	1.11	55.8	1.12
Price increase similar to current rate	17.3	0.80	19.5	0.84	18.6	0.84	20.0	0.83	20.7	0.80
Price increase less than current rate	5.1	0.47	5.6	0.48	5.2	0.46	6.0	0.50	5.4	0.46
No changes in prices	12.9	0.68	14.7	0.76	13.2	0.69	13.9	0.71	15.2	0.73
Decline in prices	5.0	0.44	3.4	0.36	3.6	0.37	3.5	0.35	2.9	0.32
Household Durables
Prices will increase	76.8	0.83	76.8	0.90	76.3	0.90	75.4	0.90	77.0	0.89
Price increase more than current rate	56.0	1.12	54.8	1.18	54.3	1.13	51.9	1.12	54.8	1.12
Price increase similar to current rate	16.4	0.79	16.9	0.76	17.0	0.80	17.9	0.78	17.8	0.79
Price increase less than current rate	4.4	0.44	5.0	0.45	5.0	0.47	5.6	0.46	4.4	0.40
No changes in prices	16.6	0.72	17.6	0.81	18.0	0.82	17.9	0.78	17.9	0.81
Decline in prices	6.6	0.47	5.6	0.46	5.6	0.43	6.6	0.48	5.1	0.41
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	89.2	0.64	88.8	0.70	88.7	0.66	88.3	0.67	88.2	0.69
Price increase more than current rate	68.7	1.02	66.7	1.09	67.6	1.05	66.5	1.03	65.9	1.06
Price increase similar to current rate	16.3	0.75	17.6	0.83	17.0	0.80	17.6	0.80	18.5	0.82
Price increase less than current rate	4.2	0.45	4.5	0.45	4.1	0.45	4.2	0.39	3.8	0.40
No changes in prices	8.4	0.57	8.7	0.61	8.8	0.59	9.3	0.60	9.7	0.63
Decline in prices	2.4	0.31	2.5	0.30	2.5	0.31	2.3	0.30	2.1	0.27
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	82.1	0.77	81.7	0.90	81.9	0.85	82.4	0.79	83.0	0.77
Price increase more than current rate	58.9	1.13	58.4	1.19	58.8	1.15	59.4	1.07	59.9	1.12
Price increase similar to current rate	18.6	0.83	18.3	0.82	18.2	0.82	17.6	0.79	18.2	0.77
Price increase less than current rate	4.6	0.44	4.9	0.44	5.0	0.47	5.4	0.45	4.8	0.44
No changes in prices	14.7	0.71	15.7	0.84	15.5	0.79	15.0	0.74	15.0	0.75
Decline in prices	3.2	0.34	2.6	0.32	2.6	0.33	2.6	0.31	2.0	0.26
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: May-25
	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Overall	8.4	0.08	7.7	0.12	9.5	0.09	8.9	0.12	9.4	0.11	9.5	0.25
Gender-wise
Male	8.6	0.12	7.9	0.16	9.6	0.14	9.0	0.22	9.4	0.16	9.5	0.32
Female	8.4	0.11	7.7	0.19	9.6	0.12	9.0	0.20	9.5	0.15	9.8	0.26
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees	8.8	0.48	7.7	0.50	9.7	0.48	9.1	0.86	9.8	0.57	8.9	1.03
Other Employees	8.3	0.17	7.5	0.20	9.4	0.18	8.7	0.20	9.3	0.22	9.1	0.37
Self Employed	8.7	0.19	7.8	0.27	9.7	0.21	9.0	0.35	9.5	0.24	9.6	0.38
Homemaker	8.3	0.12	7.4	0.24	9.4	0.13	8.8	0.18	9.4	0.16	9.5	0.37
Retired Persons	9.1	0.30	8.6	0.70	10.1	0.35	9.5	0.71	9.6	0.40	9.5	0.74
Daily Workers	8.2	0.23	7.8	0.45	9.3	0.28	9.2	0.51	8.9	0.37	9.0	0.53
Other category	8.3	0.20	7.6	0.22	9.4	0.22	9.0	0.30	9.5	0.25	9.7	0.35
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years	7.9	0.15	7.3	0.18	8.9	0.17	8.6	0.24	9.0	0.21	9.0	0.28
25 to 30 years	8.2	0.17	7.6	0.25	9.4	0.18	8.8	0.26	9.3	0.22	9.5	0.38
30 to 35 years	8.4	0.17	7.6	0.21	9.4	0.19	8.7	0.18	9.2	0.22	9.3	0.41
35 to 40 years	8.3	0.18	7.6	0.32	9.4	0.19	8.7	0.27	9.4	0.24	9.5	0.44
40 to 45 years	8.5	0.20	7.7	0.27	9.5	0.21	9.0	0.37	9.3	0.26	9.3	0.49
45 to 50 years	8.9	0.22	8.7	0.40	10.1	0.24	10.0	0.29	9.8	0.29	10.2	0.28
50 to 55 years	8.8	0.27	8.0	0.57	9.8	0.30	9.3	0.62	9.4	0.35	9.5	0.55
55 to 60 years	8.5	0.27	8.1	0.33	9.4	0.27	9.1	0.45	9.1	0.39	9.1	0.61
60 years and above	9.1	0.22	9.0	0.57	10.3	0.25	10.0	0.45	9.7	0.34	10.0	0.43
City-wise
Ahmedabad	6.5	0.20	6.1	0.19	7.3	0.25	6.9	0.22	6.9	0.35	7.0	0.31
Bengaluru	5.9	0.18	5.3	0.11	7.4	0.21	6.7	0.26	7.8	0.24	7.3	0.28
Bhopal	9.1	0.47	8.8	1.39	10.6	0.49	10.5	0.57	10.0	0.66	10.3	0.48
Bhubaneswar	7.5	0.42	6.2	0.33	10.1	0.51	9.5	0.94	9.8	0.73	9.5	0.87
Chennai	7.9	0.33	6.8	0.85	9.0	0.47	8.3	0.81	9.7	0.57	9.9	0.62
Delhi	9.1	0.21	8.6	0.37	9.7	0.23	9.6	0.37	9.4	0.27	10.0	0.34
Guwahati	7.7	0.39	7.1	0.70	8.9	0.40	9.6	0.77	10.0	0.62	10.7	0.74
Hyderabad	8.1	0.24	7.5	0.39	9.7	0.32	9.0	0.43	9.5	0.47	9.8	0.51
Jaipur	6.8	0.30	6.4	0.43	7.2	0.34	6.7	0.49	6.5	0.51	6.3	0.61
Jammu	12.5	1.59	15.2	2.25	10.1	0.98	9.8	1.93	8.9	0.90	8.3	2.04
Kolkata	10.3	0.25	10.2	0.20	11.3	0.27	11.0	0.52	10.8	0.29	10.9	0.50
Lucknow	9.2	0.53	8.6	0.71	9.8	0.53	9.4	0.69	9.5	0.51	9.0	0.73
Mumbai	9.4	0.18	8.7	0.18	10.8	0.22	10.4	0.15	11.0	0.32	11.3	0.60
Nagpur	7.7	0.50	7.1	0.89	8.8	0.60	8.2	0.78	8.5	0.94	9.4	1.22
Patna	7.5	0.35	7.3	0.33	8.2	0.40	8.0	0.46	7.8	0.56	7.9	0.63
Thiruvananthapuram	6.8	0.73	5.6	0.50	8.5	0.68	7.6	0.74	10.4	0.60	10.0	0.83
Chandigarh	9.3	0.59	9.1	0.68	9.8	0.87	9.8	0.79	9.8	0.91	9.7	1.00
Ranchi	9.0	0.49	8.4	0.37	9.3	0.43	8.8	0.46	8.6	0.48	8.6	0.50
Raipur	10.5	0.98	10.3	0.82	11.0	1.01	10.9	1.25	9.4	1.25	10.6	1.39
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
May-24	8.7	0.10	8.0	0.13	9.8	0.10	9.2	0.19	9.6	0.12	9.9	0.19
Nov-24	8.9	0.09	8.4	0.13	9.7	0.10	9.1	0.20	9.7	0.12	10.1	0.11
Jan-25	8.8	0.08	8.3	0.11	9.8	0.09	9.3	0.23	9.9	0.11	10.2	0.07
Mar-25	8.5	0.08	7.8	0.11	9.5	0.08	8.9	0.13	9.4	0.11	9.7	0.23
May-25	8.4	0.08	7.7	0.12	9.5	0.09	8.9	0.12	9.4	0.11	9.5	0.25
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Food	Non-Food	Households durables	Housing	Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
May-24	67.4	67.2	63.2	67.2	68.0
Nov-24	65.7	66.2	61.0	64.1	71.3
Jan-25	66.2	66.2	61.1	65.3	66.0
Mar-25	64.4	67.6	60.1	65.0	68.8
May-25	63.5	64.8	60.4	63.6	67.4
One Year Ahead
May-24	76.1	74.5	69.5	76.8	75.0
Nov-24	79.6	73.8	70.1	75.7	74.4
Jan-25	75.3	73.1	67.8	75.3	73.9
Mar-25	74.3	72.7	67.0	75.4	76.9
May-25	74.4	70.5	68.6	72.7	75.4

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	5	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
	1-<2	3	32	18	7	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	62
	2-<3	0	14	119	74	50	12	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	272
	3-<4	0	3	17	136	67	59	16	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	304
	4-<5	0	2	11	10	149	103	53	14	9	1	4	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	360
	5-<6	0	2	7	25	26	514	151	223	105	13	103	3	21	3	0	6	2	1	1205
	6-<7	0	1	1	3	8	11	211	96	95	27	22	2	11	0	0	2	1	0	491
	7-<8	0	0	1	3	0	8	8	196	121	60	78	2	6	2	2	4	1	0	492
	8-<9	0	0	2	0	2	6	11	5	214	92	143	11	26	6	0	9	3	0	530
	9-<10	0	0	0	2	1	0	3	2	3	103	51	15	34	5	2	5	1	0	227
	10-<11	0	0	3	3	0	15	6	7	14	10	433	67	191	56	19	206	96	2	1128
	11-<12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	8	4	7	2	0	3	0	28
	12-<13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	43	12	11	22	5	0	98
	13-<14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12	4	5	4	0	26
	14-<15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	8	1	2	0	14
	15-<16	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	3	76	95	1	182
	>=16	0	0	0	1	1	10	0	1	0	1	25	0	2	1	0	13	593	2	650
	Total	9	54	182	265	304	742	460	545	564	310	872	109	345	105	52	349	806	6	6079

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: May-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	3	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
	1-<2	12	12	20	6	1	7	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	62
	2-<3	30	8	64	65	61	25	7	3	1	0	6	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	272
	3-<4	37	0	9	57	58	85	35	8	4	3	6	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	304
	4-<5	51	0	10	6	66	91	57	23	33	11	8	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	360
	5-<6	162	0	4	5	13	256	139	166	149	37	221	8	11	1	1	24	8	0	1205
	6-<7	54	0	0	1	3	4	130	83	87	34	58	11	18	0	2	2	4	0	491
	7-<8	52	0	0	1	4	2	4	122	82	60	97	14	30	2	4	8	10	0	492
	8-<9	51	0	0	0	0	2	3	4	135	50	134	27	75	21	4	13	11	0	530
	9-<10	22	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	52	38	26	42	14	9	10	7	0	227
	10-<11	93	0	1	2	1	9	2	4	8	4	239	42	164	36	28	270	225	0	1128
	11-<12	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	3	7	3	2	2	0	28
	12-<13	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	24	7	11	22	21	0	98
	13-<14	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	2	5	9	0	26
	14-<15	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	1	4	0	14
	15-<16	16	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	46	110	1	182
	>=16	48	4	4	1	2	9	0	0	0	0	17	0	1	2	0	9	553	0	650
	Total	647	25	114	145	211	493	380	417	503	251	836	135	375	98	70	412	965	2	6079

¹ The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

² All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

³ Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on April 09, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.