Growth is expected to moderate in 2018-19 but firm up in 2019-20. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain below 4.0 per cent till Q2:2019-20, but firm up to 4.2 per cent in Q4:2019-20. The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. Twenty-five panellists participated in the 57th round of the survey conducted during March 20192. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts and consolidated in Annexes 1-7, along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output
-
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow at 7.0 per cent in 2018-19 and is expected to improve by 30 basis points (bps) in 2019-20 (Table 1).
-
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth is expected at 8.3 per cent and 8.1 per cent during 2018-19 and 2019-20, respectively.
-
Real investment growth, proxied by the growth of real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), is likely to improve to 10.0 per cent in 2018-19 but moderate to 9.4 per cent in 2019-20.
-
Forecasters have assigned the maximum probability to GDP growth being in the range of 7.0-7.4 per cent in both 2018-19 and 2019-20 (Chart 1).
-
Real gross value added (GVA) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2018-19 and by 7.1 per cent in 2019-20, supported by activity in the industrial and services sectors.
| Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and Components |
| (in per cent) |
| |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
| Real GDP growth rate |
7.0
(-0.2) |
7.3
(0.0) |
| Real PFCE growth rate |
8.3 |
8.1 |
| Real GFCF growth rate |
10.0 |
9.4 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (nominal)
(growth rate in per cent) |
12.2
(+0.8) |
11.8
(-0.1) |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Rate
(per cent of GDP) |
29.0
(-0.1) |
29.4
(0.0) |
| Real GVA Growth |
6.8
(-0.2) |
7.1
(-0.1) |
| a. Agriculture and Allied Activities |
3.0
(-0.8) |
3.5
(-0.1) |
| b. Industry |
7.3
(-0.2) |
7.3
(0.0) |
| c. Services |
7.4
(-0.1) |
7.8
(-0.2) |
Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national deposable income] (GNDI)] |
29.9
(+0.4) |
30.2
(+0.5) |
| Note: In all the tables, the figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round. |
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 6. 2. Inflation
| Table 2: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation |
| (in per cent) |
| |
Q4:18-19 |
Q1:19-20 |
Q2:19-20 |
Q3:19-20 |
Q4:19-20 |
| CPI Headline |
2.4
(-0.7) |
2.9
(-0.6) |
3.3
(-0.7) |
4.0
(-0.4) |
4.2 |
| CPI excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light |
5.3
(-0.3) |
4.8
(-0.4) |
4.8
(-0.4) |
4.8
(-0.2) |
4.9 |
| WPI All Commodities |
2.9
(-0.8) |
2.7
(-0.5) |
2.1
(-0.6) |
2.3
(-0.7) |
3.6 |
| WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
2.7
(-0.9) |
2.4
(-1.1) |
2.0
(-1.5) |
2.0
(-2.1) |
3.0 |
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 3. External Sector
-
Forecasts of growth in merchandise exports and merchandise imports during 2018-19 are expected at 8.0 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively, and deceleration is expected in 2019-20 (Table 3).
-
The current account deficit (CAD) is expected at 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2018-19 and 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2019-20.
-
The Indian rupee is likely to remain around ₹ 70 per US Dollar till Q4:2019-20 (Annex 3).
| Table 3: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables |
| |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
Merchandise Exports – in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
8.0
(-1.7) |
5.6
(-2.0) |
Merchandise Imports– in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
10.5
(-1.7) |
6.0
(-1.5) |
Current Account Deficit
(Ratio to GDP at current market price, in per cent) |
2.4
(-0.1) |
2.3
(0.0) |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following institutions for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF):
Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Limited); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings & Research Private Limited); Dr S P Sharma, Ms Megha Kaul, Ms Kritika Bhasin (PHD Research Bureau); Dr Arun Singh (Dun & Bradstreet India); Gaurav Kapur (IndusInd Bank Limited); ICICI Securities Primary Dealership; Indranil Pan (IDFC FIRST Bank); Nikhil Gupta (Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (B&K Securities India PVT LTD); Siddharth Kothari (Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd); and Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank).
The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of thirteen others SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2018-19 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2018-19 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.1 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
7.2 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.0 |
10.0 |
12.0 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
10.2 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.0 |
12.2 |
13.5 |
10.3 |
12.0 |
12.4 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
29.1 |
29.0 |
29.5 |
28.7 |
28.9 |
29.2 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.8 |
6.8 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.2 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.7 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
6.0 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.7 |
7.0 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
29.8 |
29.9 |
30.8 |
28.8 |
29.2 |
30.2 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
13.4 |
13.8 |
14.8 |
11.8 |
12.4 |
14.4 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.7 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.0 |
8.0 |
11.1 |
5.0 |
6.8 |
9.6 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.6 |
10.5 |
14.1 |
6.4 |
9.0 |
12.0 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-63.9 |
-64.0 |
-56.0 |
-71.0 |
-67.0 |
-60.9 |
| 14 |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
-2.6 |
-2.5 |
-2.3 |
| 15 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
-12.7 |
-13.6 |
4.1 |
-25.0 |
-18.0 |
-8.9 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
3.5 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
5.7 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
| 19 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2019-20 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.7 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.0 |
8.1 |
10.3 |
6.7 |
7.5 |
8.4 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.3 |
9.4 |
10.4 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
10.2 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.8 |
11.8 |
13.4 |
10.8 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
29.4 |
29.4 |
30.5 |
28.9 |
29.1 |
29.6 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.1 |
7.1 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.9 |
1.6 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.3 |
7.3 |
9.1 |
6.1 |
7.0 |
7.6 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.9 |
7.8 |
9.0 |
6.9 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
30.1 |
30.2 |
31.0 |
28.3 |
29.7 |
30.8 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
13.4 |
13.3 |
16.8 |
10.0 |
12.0 |
15.0 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
7.1 |
7.5 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.0 |
5.6 |
12.5 |
1.4 |
4.1 |
8.2 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.3 |
6.0 |
14.0 |
0.7 |
3.2 |
8.7 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-66.0 |
-66.7 |
-38.0 |
-83.8 |
-73.3 |
-61.5 |
| 14 |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-2.2 |
-2.3 |
-1.3 |
-2.9 |
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
| 15 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
11.0 |
11.4 |
30.0 |
-6.8 |
6.7 |
13.6 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
3.6 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.5 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
2.9 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
| 19 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
2.8 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
4.1 |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q4:2018-19 to Q4:2019-20 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q4: 2018-19 |
Q1: 2019-20 |
Q2: 2019-20 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.6 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
6.0 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
8.0 |
6.7 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.8 |
8.0 |
9.3 |
6.4 |
8.2 |
8.3 |
11.3 |
6.0 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
10.1 |
6.5 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.5 |
7.9 |
11.6 |
6.0 |
8.4 |
8.9 |
10.9 |
4.5 |
9.2 |
9.6 |
11.5 |
7.3 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.9 |
10.9 |
11.8 |
9.5 |
11.8 |
11.4 |
14.5 |
10.2 |
11.5 |
11.6 |
13.1 |
9.0 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.5 |
29.0 |
31.0 |
23.0 |
29.1 |
29.2 |
29.9 |
27.0 |
29.0 |
29.0 |
29.8 |
28.5 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.3 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
5.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
7.2 |
7.7 |
6.4 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
1.7 |
1.5 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
6.3 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
5.0 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
7.9 |
5.5 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
8.9 |
6.0 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.6 |
7.7 |
8.2 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
7.6 |
8.2 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
6.8 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
2.9 |
2.6 |
4.7 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
8.0 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
9.9 |
3.2 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
83.0 |
82.5 |
90.4 |
79.3 |
85.5 |
84.5 |
93.0 |
81.5 |
87.1 |
87.5 |
93.0 |
80.5 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
124.6 |
125.5 |
138.0 |
113.9 |
130.1 |
132.0 |
146.0 |
112.0 |
134.1 |
135.3 |
151.0 |
115.5 |
| 8 |
Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
70.3 |
70.0 |
74.0 |
67.6 |
70.5 |
70.5 |
74.5 |
68.3 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
66.8 |
65.5 |
73.4 |
63.2 |
67.0 |
66.5 |
76.0 |
58.3 |
| 10 |
Repo Rate (end-period) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
5.97 |
6.00 |
6.25 |
5.75 |
5.89 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
5.50 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q3: 2019-20 |
Q4: 2019-20 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.4 |
7.5 |
7.8 |
6.4 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
8.3 |
6.9 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.0 |
7.9 |
10.3 |
6.9 |
8.1 |
7.7 |
10.4 |
7.1 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.2 |
9.3 |
13.7 |
5.4 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
12.9 |
8.0 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.9 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
9.7 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
14.2 |
10.3 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
29.6 |
29.7 |
30.1 |
28.8 |
29.7 |
29.6 |
32.0 |
28.6 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.1 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
8.0 |
6.3 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.5 |
3.6 |
5.5 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
6.1 |
2.0 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.5 |
7.4 |
10.3 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
7.3 |
10.2 |
6.2 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.1 |
8.1 |
9.6 |
6.7 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
9.8 |
7.0 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
5.2 |
4.8 |
9.5 |
3.2 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
8.0 |
3.2 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
88.0 |
87.5 |
96.0 |
80.5 |
89.9 |
89.5 |
102.0 |
82.5 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
136.1 |
133.6 |
155.0 |
118.9 |
135.4 |
135.8 |
158.0 |
112.5 |
| 8 |
Rupee – US Dollar Exchange rate (RBI reference rate) (end-period) |
70.4 |
70.0 |
75.0 |
65.6 |
70.3 |
70.5 |
75.3 |
65.9 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
68.0 |
67.0 |
77.4 |
62.2 |
68.5 |
67.0 |
81.0 |
64.5 |
| 10 |
Repo Rate (end-period) |
5.89 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
5.50 |
5.89 |
6.00 |
6.00 |
5.50 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI-Combined Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
CPI Combined Headline |
Core CPI Combined (excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light) |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q4:2018-19 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
5.2 |
| Q1:2019-20 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
| Q2:2019-20 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
1.9 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
6.2 |
4.5 |
| Q3:2019-20 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
2.7 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
4.1 |
| Q4:2019-20 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
6.3 |
4.2 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
WPI Headline |
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q4:2018-19 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
| Q1:2019-20 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
3.5 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
5.1 |
1.8 |
| Q2:2019-20 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
3.9 |
1.1 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
5.3 |
0.9 |
| Q3:2019-20 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
5.3 |
0.5 |
| Q4:2019-20 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.5 |
1.8 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
5.4 |
1.3 |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth |
| Growth Range |
Forecasts for 2018-19 |
Forecasts for 2019-20 |
| 10.0 per cent or more |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 9.5 to 9.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 9.0 to 9.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 8.5 to 8.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.01 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.05 |
0.19 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.65 |
0.53 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0.27 |
0.24 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.02 |
0.02 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Below 2.0 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation |
| Inflation Range |
Forecasts for Q4:2018-19 |
Forecasts for Q1:2019-20 |
Forecasts for Q2:2019-20 |
Forecasts for Q3:2019-20 |
| 8.0 per cent or above |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.13 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.06 |
0.13 |
0.36 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0.07 |
0.10 |
0.34 |
0.26 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0.13 |
0.28 |
0.27 |
0.17 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0.40 |
0.48 |
0.20 |
0.07 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0.38 |
0.08 |
0.05 |
0.02 |
| 1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0.03 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0.01 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| 0 to 0.4 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Below 0 per cent |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
| Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index. |
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