Survey of Professional Forecasters: Results of the Second Round (Pilot) (Q3:2007-08) - आरबीआय - Reserve Bank of India
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प्रकाशित तारीख जानेवारी 01, 2008
Survey of Professional Forecasters: Results of the Second Round (Pilot) (Q3:2007-08)
Table A.1 : Annual Forecasts for 2007-08 | |||||
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2007-08 | ||||
Mean | Median | Max | Min | ||
1 | Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (in per cent) | 8.7 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 8.4 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
b | Industry | 9.3 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 8.5 |
c | Services | 10.2 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 9.7 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 6.0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.4 |
3 | Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 34.7 | 34.6 | 36.0 | 33.5 |
of which Private Corporate Sector | 9.0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 7.5 | |
4 | Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 35.9 | 35.6 | 39.2 | 33.0 |
5 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 31.3 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 29.8 |
6 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 20.3 | 20.3 | 23.0 | 18.0 |
7 | Bank Credit (growth rate in per cent) | 22.4 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 20.0 |
8 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
9 | Central Government Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
10 | Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* | 30.8 | 32.5 | 35.0 | 23.0 |
11 | Repo (end period) | 7.55 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 6.00 |
12 | Reverse Repo (end period) | 6.08 | 6.00 | 7.75 | 5.75 |
13 | CRR (end period) | 7.55 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 7.00 |
14 | USD/INR (RBI reference rate-end period) | 39.0 | 39.0 | 40.5 | 38.0 |
15 | T-Bill 91 days Yield (per cent-end period) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
16 | 10 year Govt. Securities Yield (per cent-end period) | 7.7 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.0 |
17 | Overall BoP (in US $ bn.) | 59.1 | 62.8 | 88.3 | 27.8 |
18 | Export (in US $ bn.) | 149.3 | 149.2 | 153.8 | 146.0 |
Export (growth rate in percent) | 17.6 | 17.9 | 21.0 | 15.0 | |
19 | Import (in US $ bn.) | 235.0 | 235.0 | 249.6 | 224.0 |
Import (Growth rate in percent) | 22.9 | 22.9 | 30.0 | 16.7 | |
20 | Trade Balance (US $ bn) | -85.7 | -84.8 | -74.7 | -102.2 |
21 | Invisible Balance (US $ bn) | 69.7 | 68.5 | 80.0 | 62.0 |
*For all listed companies in BSE |
Table A.2 : Annual Forecasts for 2008-09 | |||||
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Annual Forecasts for 2008-09 | ||||
Mean | Median | Max | Min | ||
1 | Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (in per cent) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 |
a | Agriculture & Allied Activities | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
b | Industry | 9.0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 7.5 |
c | Services | 9.9 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 8.1 |
2 | Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 |
3 | Gross Domestic Saving (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 35.4 | 35.0 | 38.6 | 33.7 |
of which Private Corporate Sector | 9.1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 7.3 | |
4 | Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 36.6 | 36.7 | 43.2 | 31.2 |
5 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 31.9 | 31.9 | 33.8 | 30.0 |
6 | Money Supply (M3) (growth rate in per cent) | 18.9 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 15.0 |
7 | Bank Credit (growth rate in per cent) | 21.7 | 21.5 | 26.5 | 18.0 |
8 | Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.0 |
9 | Central Government Fiscal Deficit (per cent of GDP) | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
10 | Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* | 30.0 | 34.0 | 37.0 | 19.0 |
11 | Repo (end period) | 7.25 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 5.75 |
12 | Reverse Repo (end period) | 5.95 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 5.50 |
13 | CRR (end period) | 7.56 | 7.50 | 9.00 | 6.50 |
14 | USD/INR (RBI reference rate-end period) | 37.7 | 37.0 | 41.0 | 36.0 |
15 | T-Bill 91 days Yield (per cent-end period) | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 |
16 | 10 year Govt. Securities Yield (per cent-end period) | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 6.5 |
17 | Overall BoP (in US $ bn.) | 40.4 | 34.5 | 70.0 | 24.2 |
18 | Export (in US $ bn.) | 174.8 | 174.1 | 188.0 | 163.9 |
Export (growth rate in percent) | 16.6 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 10.0 | |
19 | Import (in US $ bn.) | 279.8 | 279.6 | 304.5 | 255.1 |
Import (Growth rate in percent) | 19.0 | 17.5 | 27.0 | 13.0 | |
20 | Trade Balance (US $ bn) | -105.0 | -103.7 | -84.4 | -135.0 |
21 | Invisible Balance (US $ bn) | 82.85 | 83.05 | 101.0 | 69.0 |
*For all listed companies in BSE |
Table A.3: Quarterly Forecasts Q3:2007-08 to Q2:2008-09 | ||||||||
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | |||||||
2007-08:Q3 | 2007-08:Q4 | |||||||
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | |
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (per cent) | 8.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
Agriculture & Allied Activities | 3.2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
Industry | 9.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 7.1 |
Services | 10.4 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 9.0 |
IIP growth rate (per cent) | 8.9 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 7.2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 |
Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.9 | 34.0 | 35.9 | 35.9 | 36.2 | 35.6 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 30.0 | 30.0 | 31.1 | 28.9 | 30.9 | 31.1 | 31.2 | 30.2 |
Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* | 24.0 | 25.0 | 28.0 | 19.0 | 26.0 | 26.0 | 35.0 | 17.0 |
USD/INR (RBI reference rate- end period) | - | - | - | - | 39.1 | 39.0 | 40.0 | 38.5 |
Repo Rate (end period) | - | - | - | - | 7.69 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.50 |
Reverse Repo Rate (end period) | - | - | - | - | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
CRR (end period) | - | - | - | - | 7.48 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 7.00 |
BSE INDEX (end period) | - | - | - | - | 20500 | 20500 | 22000 | 19000 |
Export (US $ bn.) | 37.3 | 37.6 | 37.6 | 36.2 | 38.4 | 38.1 | 40.6 | 36.4 |
Import (US $ bn.) | 59.8 | 59.2 | 62.0 | 58.0 | 59.2 | 58.9 | 64.0 | 55.5 |
Trade Balance (US $ bn.) | -22.5 | -21.9 | -21.0 | -24.7 | -20.9 | -20.5 | -17.7 | -26.5 |
*For all listed companies in BSE. |
A.3 (contd.) | ||||||||
Key Macroeconomic Indicators | Quarterly Forecasts | |||||||
2008-09:Q1 | 2008-09:Q2 | |||||||
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | |
Real GDP growth rate at factor cost (per cent) | 8.7 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 7.4 |
Agriculture & Allied Activities | 3.2 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
Industry | 9.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 7.7 |
Services | 10.1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 9.1 |
IIP growth rate (per cent) | 9.1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 7.8 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (growth rate in per cent) | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
Gross Domestic Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 35.3 | 35.3 | 36.6 | 34.0 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.9 | 35.6 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (per cent of GDP at current market price) | 31.2 | 31.4 | 32.4 | 29.8 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 33.4 | 29.8 |
Corporate profit after tax (growth rate in per cent)* | 26.7 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 25.0 | 34.0 | 19.0 |
USD/INR (RBI reference rate- end period) | 38.6 | 38.4 | 40.0 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 38.0 | 40.0 | 37.5 |
Repo Rate (end period) | 7.64 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 7.25 | 7.57 | 7.50 | 7.75 | 7.25 |
Reverse Repo Rate (end period) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
CRR (end period) | 7.47 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 6.75 | 7.53 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 6.75 |
BSE INDEX (end period) | 21750 | 21750 | 22500 | 21000 | 23500 | 23500 | 24000 | 23000 |
Export (US $ bn.) | 40.2 | 41.4 | 42.0 | 36.0 | 44.7 | 44.8 | 47.0 | 42.2 |
Import (US $ bn.) | 67.2 | 68.7 | 72.3 | 59.0 | 69.2 | 69.5 | 72.1 | 65.8 |
Trade Balance (US $ bn.) | -25.4 | -25.3 | -20.7 | -30.4 | -24.5 | -23.7 | -23.0 | -27.8 |
*For all listed companies in BSE |
Table A.4: Forecasts for WPI and CPI-IW | ||||||||||||
WPI | WPI-MP | CPI-IW | ||||||||||
Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | Mean | Median | Max | Min | |
Q4:2007-08 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 5.0 |
Q1:2008-09 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 5.5 |
Q2:2008-09 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 5.0 |
Table A.5: Annual Average Percentage Change | |||||||
Annual average percentage change over the next five years | Annual average percentage change over the next ten years | ||||||
Real GDP | WPI Inflation | CPI-IW Inflation | Real GDP | WPI Inflation | CPI-IW Inflation | ||
Minimum | 8.0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | Minimum | 7.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Lower Quantile | 8.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | Lower Quantile | 8.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Median | 8.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | Median | 9.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
Upper Quantile | 9.0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | Upper Quantile | 9.2 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
Maximum | 9.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | Maximum | 10.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
SD | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | SD | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
N | 14 | 14 | 14 | N | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Missing | 1 | 1 | 1 | Missing | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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