Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Does Financial Cycle Exist in India? @Harendra Behera, Saurabh Sharma Abstract #The paper tries to identify the existence of financial cycle in India by examining its main characteristics. Using three distinct methods – turning point analysis, spectral analysis and band-pass filter – and quarterly data on credit, equity prices, house prices and real exchange rate for the period 1960:Q1 through 2018:Q4, the cyclical propert

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Cross-border Trade Credit: A Post-Crisis Empirical Analysis for India @Rajeev Jain, Dhirendra Gajbhiye and Soumasree Tewari Abstract *The paper profiles trade credit extended by domestic and foreign banks to Indian importers, focusing on its size, composition and cost pattern. Using a panel data of 55 banks for 2007-08:Q1 to 2016-17:Q4, the paper finds that both demand and supply-side factors influence the flow of trade c

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Inflation Expectations of Households: Do They Influence Wage-Price Dynamics in India? @Sitikantha Pattanaik, Silu Muduli and Soumyajit Ray Abstract 1This paper examines the usefulness of survey-based information on inflation expectations of households in the analysis of inflation dynamics in India. As household inflation expectations do not satisfy the statistical properties of rationality and unbiasedness, hybrid versions

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Measuring Financial Capability of the Street Vendors @D.V. Ramana and Silu Muduli Abstract 1Financial capability of an individual is the ability to use and manage financial products for current and future financial needs with adequate financial knowledge. This paper examines financial capability on four dimensions- financial management to meet current needs, future financial planning, financial products management, and fin

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 India’s Investment Cycle: An Empirical Investigation @Janak Raj Satyananda Sahoo and Shiv Shankar Abstract 1This study estimates the duration of the investment cycle and examines the determinants of investment activity in India. Using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dating procedure, the study finds that the real investment rate in India followed a three-year cycle during the period from 1950-51 to 2017-18

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 04 Economic Activity and its Determinants: A Panel Analysis of Indian States @Garima Wahi and Muneesh Kapur Abstract 1This paper assesses the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy along with other macroeconomic determinants on economic activity using state-level Indian data. Since economic activity can vary across states due to local factors and state government policies, a state-level empirical analysis, by providing mor

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Rural Wage Dynamics in India: What Role does Inflation Play? @Sujata Kundu Abstract 1This paper studies the relationship between rural wage growth and inflation in India to assess the risk of a wage-price spiral to the inflation trajectory. The results of a cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) show that in the long-run both nominal agricultural wages and non-agricultural wages exhibit statistically signif

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Non-Linear, Asymmetric and Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India @Michael Debabrata Patra Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam andJoice John Abstract Exploring nonlinearities and time variations in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in India for the period from April 2005 to March 2016, this paper finds ERPT is asymmetric with pass-through from small depreciations being the strongest. ER

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 Operating Performance of Initial Public Offering Firms after Issue in India – A Revisit @Avdhesh Kumar Shukla and Tara Shankar Shaw Abstract *The paper examines how the operating performance of the Indian firms changed after their initial public offerings. It is found that the operating performance does not deteriorate post IPOs, if a performance indicator like “profit” is normalised by sales volumes (i.e., return on sales

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis @Harendra Behera Garima Wahi and Muneesh Kapur Abstract 1This paper revisits the issue of determinants of inflation in India in a Phillips curve framework and makes two key contributions in relation to existing studies. First, in the context of the Reserve Bank moving towards a flexible inflation targeting framework based on consumer price index (CPI)