As per the standard practice, India's external debt statistics for the quarters ending March and June are released by the Reserve Bank of India and those for the quarters ending September and December by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. The external debt data are released with a lag of one quarter. The external debt data, as compiled in the standard format, as at end-March 2013 in Rupees and US dollar terms and revised data for the earlier quarters are set out in Statements 1 and 2. The major developments relating to India’s external debt as at end-March 2013 are presented in the following paragraphs.

Highlights

The high current account deficit witnessed during 2012-13 and it’s financing increasingly through debt flows particularly by trade credit resulted in significant rise in India’s external debt during 2012-13. However, magnitude of increase in external debt was offset to some extent due to valuation change (gain) resulting from appreciation of US dollar against Indian rupee and other international currencies.

The major developments relating to India’s external debt as at end-March 2013 are set out below:

1. India’s external debt, as at end-March 2013, was placed at US$ 390.0 billion showing an increase of US$ 44.6 billion or 12.9 per cent over the level at end-March 2012. The increase in total external debt during financial year 2012-13 was primarily on account of rise in short-term trade credit. There has been sizeable rise in external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and rupee denominated Non-resident Indian deposits as well.

2. Excluding the valuation change (gain) due to the movement of US dollar (appreciation) against major international currencies and Indian rupee, the external debt as at end-March 2013 would have increased by US $ 55.8 billion over end-March 2012.

3. In terms of major components, the share of external commercial borrowings continued to be the highest at 31.0 per cent of total external debt, followed by short term debt (24.8 per cent) and NRI deposits (18.2 per cent).

4. The share of short-term debt in total debt, by original maturity, was 24.8 per cent. Based on residual maturity, short-term debt accounted for 44.2 per cent of the total external debt as at end-March 2013. Of this, the share of NRI deposits was 28.4 per cent.

5. The ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to foreign exchange reserves rose to 33.1 per cent as at end-March 2013 from 26.6 per cent as at end-March 2012.

6. The debt denominated in US dollar continued to account for the highest share of 57.2 per cent in total external debt as at end-March 2013, followed by that denominated in Indian rupee (24.0 per cent) and SDR (7.5 per cent).

7. The ratio of foreign exchange reserves to external debt as at end-March 2013 at 74.9 per cent was lower than the level of end-March 2012 (85.2 per cent).

1. India’s External Debt as at end-March 2013

1. India’s external debt, as at end-March 2013, was placed at US$ 390.0 billion showing an increase of US$ 44.6 billion or 12.9 per cent over the end-March 2012 level, primarily on account of short-term trade credit, ECB and NRI deposits (Table 1).

2. The share of short-term debt in total debt rose over the preceding as well as corresponding quarter of the previous year. The long-term debt at US$ 293.4 billion and short-term debt at US$ 96.7 billion accounted for 75.2 per cent and 24.8 per cent, respectively, of the total external debt as at end-March 2013 (Table 1).

3. The share of external commercial borrowings (US$ 120.9 billion) continued to be the highest at 31.0 per cent of total external debt, followed by short term debt (24.8 per cent) and NRI deposits at (18.2 per cent).

2. Valuation Changes

The valuation change (gain) during 2012-13 amounted to US$ 11.3 billion reflecting the appreciation of US dollar against the Indian rupee and other major currencies. Thus excluding the valuation gain, the stock of external debt as at end-March 2013 would have increased by US$ 55.8 billion.

3. Components of External Debt

Almost all the major components of the external debt recorded a rise during the year except bilateral, IMF, exports credits and rupee debt.

1. External debt on account of commercial borrowings increased by US$ 16.1 billion during 2012-13 as compared with US$ 16.3 billion in 2011-12. Trade credit components of external debt (both long-term and short-term) showed an increase of US$ 20.3 billion as at end-March 2013 over end-March 2012 (Table 2).

2. The short-term debt increased by US$ 18.5 billion to US$ 96.7 billion as at end-March 2013 from US$ 78.2 billion as at end-March 2012 mainly on account of rise in short-term trade credit.

3. NRI deposits increased by US$ 12.2 billion to US$ 70.8 billion as at end-March 2013 over the level as at end-March 2012 primarily on account of increase in rupee denominated NRI deposits reflecting the impact of deregulation of interest rates on these deposits in December 2011.

4. The loans under external assistance (multilateral and bilateral debt) declined by around US $ 0.6 billion during 2012-13 as compared with an increase of US$ 3.2 billion in the preceding year.

4. Currency Composition of India’s External Debt

The US dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest components of India’s external debt with a share of 57.2 per cent as at end-March 2013, followed by Indian rupee (24.0 per cent), SDR (7.5 per cent), Japanese Yen (6.3 per cent) and Euro (3.5 per cent).

5. External Debt by Residual Maturity

Based on residual maturity, the short-term debt accounted for 44.2 per cent of total external debt as at end-March 2013. Within the short-term debt, the share of NRI deposits was the highest at 28.4 per cent. The ratio of short-term debt by residual maturity to foreign exchange reserves worked out to 59.0 per cent at end-March 2013 (Table 3).

6. Government and Non-Government External Debt

Government (Sovereign) external debt stood at US$ 81.7 billion as at end-March 2013 as against US$ 81.9 billion as at end-March 2012. The shares of Government and non-Government external debt in the total external debt were 20.9 per cent and 79.1 per cent, respectively, as at end-March 2013 (Table 4).

7. Select Indicators of External Debt

Among the indicators of external debt considered for assessing vulnerability, almost all the indicators showed deterioration as at end-March 2013 as compared to end-March 2012. Debt service ratio, however, showed marginal improvement at end-March 2013 over the end-March 2012 (Table 5).

The data on external debt outstanding as at end-March 2013, along with revised data for the earlier quarters are set out in Statements 1 and 2.

Alpana Killawala
Chief General Manager

Press Release : 2012-2013/2186