The Consumer Confidence Survey conducted in September 2013 (14th round), provides an assessment of the consumer sentiments of 5,178 households spread across 6 metropolitan cities viz., Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi. The survey captures qualitative information on 3 point scale viz. improve, remain same, or worsen. The assessments are analysed in two parts, viz., current situation as compared with a year ago and expectations for a year ahead. There are four blocks in the survey schedule broadly covering respondents’ perceptions on general economic conditions and own financial situation. Highlights:
- Both Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future Expectations Index (FEI) declined on account of decrease in positive perceptions on household circumstances, income, spending and employment.
Current and Future Expectations Index |
|
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Current Situation Index |
106.9 |
101.7 |
101.7 |
88.0 |
Future Expectation Index |
105.6 |
103.9 |
109.8 |
90.5 |
-
The net response on economic conditions has declined as compared to June 2013 survey. This is largely due to decline in the positive sentiments.
-
The net response on household circumstances has been declining over the last four rounds. In the latest round, the net response has turned negative. The outlook, however, remains marginally better.
-
About 80 per cent of the respondents reported that their future income would increase or remain the same. However, the net response has declined due to drop in the positive perceptions.
-
The decline in positive sentiments on income gets reflected in the spending aspect also. A decline in the perception of respondents reporting increase in future spending, coupled with increase in those reporting decline in future spending has led to the net response falling below the threshold level. The spending perceptions are largely influenced by cost of goods & services and income.
-
There has been decrease in the positive perceptions on employment scenario.
-
Though a significant proportion of respondents reported rise in prices/inflation, there has been a decline in the net responses.
Table 1: Perceptions on Economic Conditions |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Improve |
37.5 |
28.1 |
28.2 |
22.4 |
39.6 |
32.8 |
35.2 |
29.9 |
Remain same |
21.3 |
19.3 |
20.2 |
18.4 |
28.5 |
27.6 |
27.0 |
31.5 |
Worsen |
41.2 |
52.7 |
51.6 |
59.3 |
31.9 |
39.5 |
37.8 |
38.6 |
Net Response |
-3.8 |
-24.6 |
-23.3 |
-36.9 |
7.6 |
-6.7 |
-2.6 |
-8.8 |
Table 2: Perceptions on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Improve |
44.8 |
40.3 |
42.7 |
30.8 |
46.0 |
43.4 |
49.5 |
33.3 |
Remain same |
25.1 |
29.0 |
19.9 |
30.4 |
31.1 |
34.9 |
28.7 |
38.0 |
Worsen |
30.0 |
30.7 |
37.4 |
38.8 |
22.9 |
21.7 |
21.8 |
28.7 |
Net Response |
14.8 |
9.6 |
5.2 |
-8.0 |
23.1 |
21.6 |
27.7 |
4.6 |
Table 3: Major Factors influencing views on Household Circumstances |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Salary and business income |
76.1 |
78.5 |
81.5 |
84.1 |
73.8 |
81.1 |
88.2 |
81.3 |
Interest and dividend income |
21.0 |
25.2 |
12.4 |
30.8 |
23.1 |
20.1 |
12.2 |
32.8 |
Income from real estate sales |
16.9 |
23.7 |
7.4 |
26.6 |
18.9 |
16.0 |
6.4 |
26.2 |
Prices |
52.6 |
59.6 |
64.1 |
76.0 |
50.6 |
55.8 |
67.2 |
70.6 |
Change in value of assets |
18.1 |
21.4 |
2.7 |
25.8 |
20.4 |
19.8 |
2.8 |
26.3 |
The number of dependent in my family |
18.6 |
14.6 |
7.6 |
34.5 |
17.1 |
14.3 |
7.5 |
37.2 |
Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, the percentage responses may add up to be more than 100. |
Table 4: Perceptions on Income |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Increase |
52.4 |
47.5 |
44.7 |
34.5 |
54.5 |
51.6 |
59.1 |
41.7 |
Remain same |
32.3 |
35.3 |
40.8 |
43.5 |
35.9 |
35.9 |
31.8 |
41.2 |
Decrease |
15.3 |
17.2 |
14.5 |
21.9 |
9.6 |
12.5 |
9.1 |
17.1 |
Net Response |
37.1 |
30.3 |
30.1 |
12.6 |
44.9 |
39.0 |
50.0 |
24.6 |
Table 5: Perceptions on Spending |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Increase |
78.5 |
77.3 |
84.0 |
61.8 |
51.5 |
52.5 |
53.5 |
28.4 |
Remain same |
17.0 |
18.3 |
12.2 |
30.7 |
30.2 |
29.0 |
32.0 |
39.5 |
Decrease |
4.5 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
7.5 |
18.2 |
18.5 |
14.6 |
32.1 |
Net Response |
74.1 |
72.9 |
80.1 |
54.3 |
33.3 |
34.0 |
38.9 |
-3.7 |
Table 6: Major Factors influencing Spending Perception |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Income |
Future income |
Non- financial assets |
Financial assets |
Expenditure on real estate |
Expenditure on consumer durables |
Number of dependents |
Cost of consumer goods |
Cost of services |
Dec-12 |
46.2 |
24.3 |
17.4 |
15.3 |
23.7 |
40.6 |
36.8 |
76.3 |
66.7 |
Mar-13 |
47.4 |
29.4 |
20.0 |
18.8 |
27.0 |
47.3 |
27.0 |
79.3 |
72.1 |
Jun-13 |
45.2 |
16.2 |
5.4 |
13.6 |
7.4 |
33.0 |
20.4 |
85.1 |
79.1 |
Sep-13 |
66.6 |
32.1 |
20.5 |
40.0 |
26.2 |
39.0 |
49.9 |
79.4 |
70.4 |
| Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of percentage relating to factors may be more than 100. |
Table 7: Perceptions on Outlays for Major Expenditure |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Motor Vehicle |
Yes |
19.7 |
15.9 |
12.8 |
13.1 |
Can’t Say |
14.4 |
18.5 |
16.4 |
19.2 |
No |
65.9 |
65.6 |
70.8 |
67.7 |
House |
Yes |
12.7 |
14.2 |
13.6 |
14.1 |
Can’t Say |
20.5 |
17.0 |
13.0 |
16.6 |
No |
66.9 |
68.8 |
73.4 |
69.3 |
Durable goods |
Yes |
20.0 |
15.6 |
13.5 |
15.3 |
Can’t Say |
18.6 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
18.4 |
No |
61.4 |
67.1 |
71.6 |
66.4 |
Gold |
Yes |
- |
21.7 |
21.3 |
9.8 |
Can’t Say |
- |
16.9 |
12.0 |
12.2 |
No |
- |
61.4 |
66.7 |
78.0 |
Table 8: Perceptions on Employment |
(Percentage responses) |
| |
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Improve |
37.2 |
39.4 |
40.9 |
26.6 |
42.2 |
47.5 |
51.1 |
35.3 |
Remain Same |
39.4 |
33.3 |
31.7 |
34.6 |
32.0 |
30.1 |
30.3 |
34.0 |
Worsen |
23.3 |
27.3 |
27.4 |
38.8 |
25.8 |
22.3 |
18.6 |
30.7 |
Net Response |
13.9 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
-12.1 |
16.3 |
25.2 |
32.5 |
4.6 |
Table 9: Perceptions on price level |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Increase |
95.0 |
92.2 |
96.0 |
85.2 |
93.0 |
91.5 |
90.2 |
82.6 |
Remain same |
4.5 |
5.9 |
3.7 |
11.4 |
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
13.1 |
Decrease |
0.5 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
Net Response |
-94.4 |
-90.2 |
-95.7 |
-81.8 |
-91.9 |
-89.8 |
-87.7 |
-78.2 |
Note: Perceptions of increase in prices is considered to be negative sentiments and decrease in prices is considered to be positive sentiments. The net responses are therefore, negative. |
Table 10: Perceptions on rate of change in price levels (Inflation) |
(Percentage responses) |
|
Compared with 1-year ago |
1-year ahead |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Dec-12 |
Mar-13 |
Jun-13 |
Sep-13 |
Increase |
93.0 |
89.3 |
92.7 |
89.0 |
86.3 |
86.4 |
90.2 |
85.4 |
Remain Same |
6.2 |
10.4 |
6.8 |
8.3 |
12.5 |
12.8 |
9.5 |
10.9 |
Decrease |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
2.7 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
3.7 |
Net Response |
-92.2 |
-88.9 |
-92.3 |
-86.3 |
-85.1 |
-85.7 |
-90.0 |
-81.6 |
|
