Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

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ਪ੍ਰਕਾਸ਼ਿਤ ਤਾਰੀਖ ਅਕਤੂਬਰ 09, 2024

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Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of September 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)¹ ². The survey was conducted during September 1-10, 2024, in 19 major cities, with 6,076 valid responses, where female participation was 52.6 per cent.

Highlights:

Households’ median perception of current inflation declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 8.1 per cent, when compared to July 2024 round of the survey; their inflation expectations for three months and one year ahead periods moderated by 20 and 10 bps, respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].
For both short term and one year ahead periods, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in both general prices and inflation have reduced vis-à-vis the previous survey round [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Price and inflationary pressures eased across all the product groups [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations when compared to their male counterparts [Table 2].

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data³

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Sep-23		Mar-24		May-24		Jul-24		Sep-24
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	74.2	0.97	76.5	0.85	80.6	0.81	82.3	0.77	79.7	0.89
Price increase more than current rate	49.5	1.1	53.1	1.08	59.1	1.13	60.5	1.13	55.5	1.21
Price increase similar to current rate	20	0.8	18.2	0.79	17.5	0.83	17.3	0.86	19.2	0.86
Price increase less than current rate	4.7	0.47	5.2	0.44	4	0.43	4.5	0.48	5	0.55
No changes in prices	20.7	0.88	19.6	0.8	16.6	0.77	14.6	0.71	17.9	0.85
Decline in prices	5	0.52	3.9	0.38	2.8	0.32	3.1	0.37	2.5	0.32
Food Product
Prices will increase	75.4	0.87	76.7	0.81	81.8	0.74	84.2	0.7	83.9	0.75
Price increase more than current rate	55.1	1.05	54.4	1	61	1.07	62.1	1.03	60.7	1.07
Price increase similar to current rate	15.1	0.71	15.7	0.69	15.3	0.74	16	0.75	16.7	0.77
Price increase less than current rate	5.3	0.46	6.6	0.5	5.5	0.46	6.1	0.52	6.6	0.58
No changes in prices	13.2	0.68	15.1	0.68	12.1	0.64	10.2	0.57	11.2	0.67
Decline in prices	11.3	0.66	8.2	0.54	6.1	0.46	5.6	0.47	4.9	0.42
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	69.2	0.93	71.5	0.87	75	0.85	77	0.81	76.1	0.92
Price increase more than current rate	47.1	1.04	48.9	1.01	53.7	1.11	54.5	1.1	52.4	1.11
Price increase similar to current rate	16.7	0.72	16.2	0.71	15.6	0.72	16.2	0.79	17.7	0.78
Price increase less than current rate	5.4	0.51	6.4	0.48	5.7	0.5	6.2	0.52	6.1	0.55
No changes in prices	20.5	0.77	20.9	0.8	19.3	0.78	17.6	0.74	19.1	0.85
Decline in prices	10.3	0.66	7.7	0.51	5.7	0.43	5.4	0.48	4.7	0.42
Household Durables
Prices will increase	62.2	0.99	64.7	0.92	68.2	0.94	68.2	0.97	64.9	1.03
Price increase more than current rate	43.2	1.05	43.8	1.01	48.3	1.1	49.6	1.09	45.9	1.11
Price increase similar to current rate	14.1	0.65	15.5	0.7	15.2	0.74	13.9	0.73	14.2	0.71
Price increase less than current rate	4.9	0.43	5.4	0.44	4.7	0.44	4.7	0.44	4.7	0.48
No changes in prices	26.4	0.88	26.1	0.85	23.4	0.86	23.4	0.88	25.2	0.97
Decline in prices	11.3	0.64	9.2	0.57	8.5	0.53	8.4	0.58	9.8	0.55
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	75.1	0.95	76.9	0.83	80.4	0.81	78.6	0.84	77.7	0.88
Price increase more than current rate	54.3	1.09	55.8	1.07	59.3	1.06	59.6	1.07	56.9	1.11
Price increase similar to current rate	16.3	0.66	16.4	0.74	16.7	0.77	14.8	0.78	16.3	0.75
Price increase less than current rate	4.5	0.43	4.7	0.4	4.3	0.44	4.1	0.45	4.5	0.48
No changes in prices	20.9	0.9	19.6	0.78	16.7	0.77	18.2	0.78	19.1	0.87
Decline in prices	4.1	0.46	3.5	0.36	3	0.34	3.2	0.37	3.3	0.35
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	63	1.04	65	0.97	68.6	0.98	71	0.95	66.9	1.04
Price increase more than current rate	44.7	1.05	45.5	1.09	49.2	1.12	52.7	1.12	46.9	1.15
Price increase similar to current rate	14.5	0.68	14.4	0.7	14.4	0.68	13.6	0.7	15.5	0.73
Price increase less than current rate	3.9	0.4	5.2	0.45	5	0.46	4.6	0.46	4.5	0.46
No changes in prices	31.2	0.99	30.1	0.92	27.3	0.94	25.3	0.9	29.8	1.01
Decline in prices	5.7	0.54	4.8	0.43	4.1	0.39	3.7	0.38	3.2	0.35
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Sep-23		Mar-24		May-24		Jul-24		Sep-24
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	86.2	0.74	87.4	0.67	89.1	0.64	90.6	0.6	89.4	0.73
Price increase more than current rate	62.2	1.05	64.7	1.08	67.9	1.14	68.6	1.12	66.5	1.2
Price increase similar to current rate	19.9	0.81	18.5	0.83	17.8	0.9	18.3	0.86	18.6	0.91
Price increase less than current rate	4.1	0.43	4.2	0.41	3.5	0.41	3.7	0.43	4.4	0.5
No changes in prices	9.6	0.59	9.7	0.59	7.9	0.56	6.6	0.5	8.6	0.67
Decline in prices	4.2	0.48	2.9	0.35	3	0.34	2.9	0.35	2	0.28
Food Product
Prices will increase	82.8	0.8	84.5	0.73	86	0.68	87.1	0.65	86.6	0.78
Price increase more than current rate	57.9	1.09	59.5	1.1	62.8	1.1	63.5	1.09	61.8	1.2
Price increase similar to current rate	19.7	0.82	19.8	0.8	18.3	0.86	19	0.84	19.2	0.85
Price increase less than current rate	5.3	0.48	5.2	0.45	4.9	0.49	4.6	0.48	5.6	0.55
No changes in prices	9.6	0.58	10.1	0.61	9.3	0.58	7.9	0.52	9.7	0.66
Decline in prices	7.6	0.6	5.4	0.44	4.7	0.39	5	0.43	3.8	0.38
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	78.9	0.83	81.1	0.76	82.1	0.79	82.9	0.77	82.4	0.85
Price increase more than current rate	54.7	1.05	56.3	1.09	59.8	1.13	61.2	1.12	58.3	1.2
Price increase similar to current rate	19.7	0.78	19.5	0.82	17.3	0.8	16.9	0.8	18.5	0.83
Price increase less than current rate	4.5	0.44	5.3	0.47	5.1	0.47	4.8	0.46	5.6	0.57
No changes in prices	13.9	0.66	14.1	0.69	12.9	0.68	12.4	0.64	14	0.77
Decline in prices	7.2	0.57	4.8	0.44	5	0.44	4.7	0.44	3.6	0.37
Household Durables
Prices will increase	73.9	0.91	74.5	0.83	76.8	0.83	77.4	0.83	76.2	0.93
Price increase more than current rate	52.4	1.04	52.3	1.06	56	1.12	56.6	1.12	54.5	1.16
Price increase similar to current rate	17.3	0.71	17.3	0.76	16.4	0.79	16.1	0.76	16.5	0.79
Price increase less than current rate	4.1	0.42	5	0.45	4.4	0.44	4.8	0.49	5.1	0.5
No changes in prices	18.5	0.76	18.1	0.76	16.6	0.72	16.3	0.73	17.3	0.79
Decline in prices	7.7	0.56	7.4	0.51	6.6	0.47	6.3	0.48	6.5	0.49
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	86.1	0.7	87.2	0.66	89.2	0.64	88.2	0.66	87.7	0.74
Price increase more than current rate	65	1.04	65.6	1.01	68.7	1.02	66.6	1.05	65.9	1.07
Price increase similar to current rate	16.9	0.73	17.2	0.74	16.3	0.75	17.7	0.8	17	0.79
Price increase less than current rate	4.2	0.42	4.4	0.39	4.2	0.45	3.9	0.43	4.8	0.53
No changes in prices	10.1	0.56	9.5	0.57	8.4	0.57	8.6	0.55	8.9	0.6
Decline in prices	3.8	0.43	3.3	0.36	2.4	0.31	3.2	0.36	3.4	0.4
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	78.4	0.86	80.1	0.78	82.1	0.77	83.4	0.76	82.2	0.85
Price increase more than current rate	56.2	1.05	56.3	1.08	58.9	1.13	61.6	1.17	58.8	1.18
Price increase similar to current rate	18	0.7	18.9	0.78	18.6	0.83	17.4	0.82	17.9	0.8
Price increase less than current rate	4.2	0.43	4.9	0.45	4.6	0.44	4.4	0.45	5.5	0.57
No changes in prices	17.1	0.74	16	0.71	14.7	0.71	13.2	0.67	15.3	0.8
Decline in prices	4.4	0.48	3.9	0.38	3.2	0.34	3.4	0.39	2.4	0.3
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Sep-24

	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Overall	8.6	0.09	8.1	0.13	9.6	0.1	9.2	0.23	9.6	0.12	10	0.14
Gender-wise
Male	8.9	0.13	8.3	0.17	9.7	0.14	9.4	0.32	9.7	0.16	10.1	0.16
Female	8.5	0.12	8	0.17	9.5	0.13	9.2	0.31	9.5	0.16	10	0.18
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees	9	0.56	8.6	0.8	9.7	0.61	9.4	0.92	10.4	0.66	10.3	1.17
Other Employees	8.6	0.16	8.1	0.21	9.5	0.17	9	0.28	9.6	0.2	10	0.23
Self Employed	8.9	0.19	8.4	0.24	9.7	0.2	9.8	0.4	9.6	0.25	10.1	0.3
Homemaker	8.4	0.14	8	0.2	9.6	0.16	9.4	0.37	9.5	0.19	10	0.21
Retired Persons	10.2	0.47	9.8	0.65	10.7	0.46	10.4	0.63	10.4	0.52	10.6	0.82
Daily Workers	9.2	0.24	9.1	0.4	10.1	0.25	10.1	0.4	10.1	0.31	10.3	0.29
Other category	7.9	0.19	7.2	0.23	8.8	0.21	7.9	0.21	8.8	0.26	8.6	0.3
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years	8.1	0.15	7.4	0.19	9	0.16	8.3	0.18	9.4	0.19	9.4	0.32
25 to 30 years	8.5	0.17	8.1	0.21	9.5	0.19	9.1	0.31	9.5	0.22	9.9	0.25
30 to 35 years	8.5	0.18	8.1	0.22	9.5	0.2	9.2	0.37	9.6	0.24	10.1	0.23
35 to 40 years	8.8	0.2	8.4	0.26	9.7	0.21	9.6	0.48	9.6	0.26	10	0.33
40 to 45 years	8.8	0.2	8.2	0.33	9.6	0.21	9.4	0.51	9.3	0.27	9.7	0.44
45 to 50 years	8.9	0.21	8.7	0.33	10.1	0.24	10.2	0.25	9.7	0.3	10.2	0.26
50 to 55 years	9.2	0.3	8.8	0.52	10	0.32	9.8	0.57	10.1	0.36	10.2	0.35
55 to 60 years	9.5	0.29	9.4	0.36	10.6	0.32	10.5	0.24	10.4	0.38	10.7	0.41
60 years and above	9.5	0.29	9.3	0.69	10.3	0.32	10.1	0.37	9.9	0.37	10.1	0.45
City-wise
Ahmedabad	7.6	0.27	6.7	0.46	8.9	0.37	7.8	0.45	8.5	0.48	8.3	0.61
Bengaluru	6.8	0.22	5.7	0.14	8.2	0.23	7.3	0.33	8.8	0.25	8.2	0.35
Bhopal	8.8	0.43	7.1	0.77	10.4	0.61	10.1	0.71	9.8	0.59	10.1	0.78
Bhubaneswar	9	0.42	8.9	1.22	10.9	0.46	10.5	0.53	10.7	0.73	10	1
Chennai	8.9	0.32	9.4	0.61	9.7	0.47	10.1	0.66	10.7	0.56	12.3	0.64
Delhi	8.8	0.21	8.7	0.3	9.5	0.23	9.8	0.47	9.6	0.24	10.1	0.31
Guwahati	9.2	0.52	9.9	0.39	9.6	0.63	10.4	0.69	9.5	0.73	10.7	0.98
Hyderabad	7.8	0.28	7.1	0.27	9.2	0.31	8.5	0.32	9.4	0.42	9.9	0.44
Jaipur	7.9	0.51	7.6	0.6	8.4	0.56	7.8	0.64	7.5	0.71	7.8	0.94
Jammu	9.7	1.37	9.2	1.36	9.2	1.14	9.2	2	8.7	1.67	8.8	2.52
Kolkata	11	0.35	10.5	0.22	11.8	0.35	11.9	1.03	11.6	0.35	12.2	1.02
Lucknow	9	0.46	8.8	0.75	9.7	0.51	9.3	0.71	9.3	0.45	9	0.72
Mumbai	9	0.26	8.3	0.23	9.8	0.29	9.6	0.44	9.3	0.39	10.1	0.32
Nagpur	8	0.42	7.5	0.71	9.2	0.47	8.5	0.65	9.2	0.74	9.9	0.79
Patna	6.8	0.23	6.7	0.36	7.4	0.3	7.4	0.44	7.2	0.39	7.6	0.39
Thiruvananthapuram	7.4	0.6	6.1	0.67	8.6	0.63	7.7	0.57	10.3	0.63	10.2	0.71
Chandigarh	10.6	0.53	10	0.37	10.8	0.48	10.4	0.27	10.8	0.55	10.6	0.42
Ranchi	8.9	0.41	8.3	0.33	9.1	0.39	8.6	0.31	8.4	0.65	9	0.78
Raipur	10.1	0.66	10.2	0.54	11	0.62	10.9	0.64	10.7	0.9	11.6	1.31
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Sep-23	9	0.09	8.4	0.11	9.7	0.09	9.1	0.17	9.3	0.11	9.9	0.17
Mar-24	8.7	0.09	8.1	0.13	9.6	0.09	9	0.16	9.5	0.1	9.8	0.19
May-24	8.7	0.1	8	0.13	9.8	0.1	9.2	0.19	9.6	0.12	9.9	0.19
Jul-24	8.9	0.09	8.2	0.12	9.8	0.1	9.4	0.24	9.8	0.11	10.1	0.09
Sep-24	8.6	0.09	8.1	0.13	9.6	0.1	9.2	0.23	9.6	0.12	10	0.14
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Food	Non-Food	Households durables	Housing	Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Sep-23	62	64.3	60.7	63.2	66.3
Mar-24	65.4	66.1	61.2	64.6	66.8
May-24	67.4	67.2	63.2	67.2	68
Jul-24	66.3	66.2	61.7	66.3	68.4
Sep-24	66	66.4	61.6	65.6	67.5
One Year Ahead
Sep-23	69.8	71.2	66.8	72.2	71.5
Mar-24	74.6	73.6	68.3	75	74.2
May-24	76.1	74.5	69.5	76.8	75
Jul-24	76.3	74.6	69.6	77.1	76.2
Sep-24	78.8	75.1	68.7	77.9	75.9

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	5	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
	1-<2	2	27	18	5	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	56
	2-<3	0	3	111	81	30	8	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	238
	3-<4	0	6	19	119	59	49	17	27	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	300
	4-<5	1	2	9	17	133	92	62	10	11	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	343
	5-<6	1	2	18	31	41	444	132	157	73	5	79	6	1	0	0	12	1	1	1004
	6-<7	0	1	2	6	6	9	205	113	87	20	26	2	8	6	1	15	8	0	515
	7-<8	0	0	1	1	6	15	9	232	114	54	63	2	3	1	1	0	1	0	503
	8-<9	0	0	1	0	5	14	4	11	198	88	147	12	14	7	3	7	2	1	514
	9-<10	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	3	89	73	186	14	3	3	3	12	5	397
	10-<11	0	1	7	5	1	27	10	5	24	3	433	68	198	51	18	193	66	2	1112
	11-<12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21	12	42	0	7	1	0	83
	12-<13	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	3	34	12	31	25	2	0	114
	13-<14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	9	6	0	20
	14-<15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	5	1	3	0	12
	15-<16	0	0	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	84	107	0	205
	>=16	0	3	1	0	2	4	1	0	2	0	29	0	3	0	2	16	582	8	653
	Total	9	45	189	268	287	670	441	562	515	260	863	304	289	128	64	372	791	19	6076

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Sep-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	2	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
	1-<2	8	14	17	11	0	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	56
	2-<3	49	3	39	53	50	27	7	2	1	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	238
	3-<4	47	1	6	50	43	69	35	7	23	4	12	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	300
	4-<5	55	1	3	5	61	75	61	34	30	4	7	1	4	0	0	1	1	0	343
	5-<6	143	2	7	13	17	230	106	150	103	34	138	6	13	3	0	27	10	2	1004
	6-<7	53	1	0	2	3	8	100	81	94	44	65	6	25	4	1	16	12	0	515
	7-<8	47	0	2	1	1	9	2	125	79	81	98	11	27	3	4	10	3	0	503
	8-<9	54	0	1	1	3	4	3	4	109	54	142	25	73	8	6	16	10	1	514
	9-<10	13	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	33	71	38	152	29	6	15	13	4	397
	10-<11	88	0	1	4	1	15	1	4	10	31	234	47	176	42	36	239	180	3	1112
	11-<12	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	11	10	36	5	3	0	83
	12-<13	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	22	9	35	30	6	0	114
	13-<14	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	9	7	0	20
	14-<15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	1	6	0	12
	15-<16	15	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	57	124	1	205
	>=16	57	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24	0	0	0	1	15	547	5	653
	Total	645	23	79	141	179	446	315	413	470	287	803	148	506	112	128	441	922	18	6076

¹ The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

² All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

³ Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on August 08, 2024. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.