Speeches & Media Interactions

This year’s Nobel Prize in physics celebrated the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in revolutionising the way we work and live. It is widely believed that AI and robotics will usher in a new wave of secular innovation, much like past breakthroughs in steam power and personal computers. Silently, new technologies are offering a way out of the cross currents of diverging macroeconomic and policy pathways, geopolitical tensions, geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change in which the global economy is transfixed. Accordingly, these technologies are heralding a brighter future, arguably holding the key for many emerging and developing economies to escape the middle-income trap. It is estimated that generative AI itself could increase global GDP by $7-10 trillion over the next three years. Large language models are estimated to increase the productivity levels of workers by 8 to 36 per cent. 

Good morning to you all! In the Indian tradition, Namaskar, which means I salute the divinity in you. It is always fulfilling to be here at the Annual Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Over the years the seminar has become a landmark forum for the intermingling and cross-fertilisation of ideas and experiences among central bankers from all over the world. It is no wonder, therefore, that it has come to be regarded as a favoured stamping ground where practitioners of the profession rub shoulders and learn from each other about the ‘soiling of the hands’ in topically relevant issues in central banking.

1. Distinguished panellists - Prof. Randall S. Kroszner, Professor, University of Chicago and Former Governor, Federal Reserve Board; Ms. Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General, Financial Stability and Operations, Banque de France; Ms. Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England; Dr. Sajjid Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief Economist India, JP Morgan; esteemed delegates and colleagues from the Reserve Bank. A very good afternoon to all of you.

The Context Over the past three and a half decades since the formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT), it has proliferated across continents, regardless of the position of host jurisdictions in the developmental ladder. By the turn of this century, it has been increasingly embraced by emerging market economies (EMEs) so much so that they now outnumber advanced economies (AEs) as practitioners. A unique feature of IT is its operationalisation even before the development of a formal theory2. The journey of IT has been tumultuous, navigating as it has the Great Moderation and ‘once in a century’ shocks such as the global financial crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and persisting geopolitical conflicts that have had a direct bearing on both inflation’s evolution and on financial conditions. Yet, there is no evidence of any major country abandoning it3. On the other hand, central banks have drawn lessons from these humungous challenges and innovated and refined their policy frameworks. The endogenous evolution of IT has rendered it the longest surviving monetary policy framework in modern times.

I feel highly privileged to be here at this High Level Conference on ‘Central Banking at Crossroads’ and share some of my thoughts. When the definitive history of our times is written, the turn of the current decade will, in all probability, be regarded as a watershed in the evolution of central banking. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the persistent geopolitical strife thereafter, central banks are treading in the uncharted terrain of a twilight zone. Today, like never before in the five centuries of their existence, central banks are confronted with a future where their mandates, their functions and their performances are all up for unforgiving scrutiny.

1. Chairpersons and Directors of the Boards of Small Finance Banks; Chief Executive Officers of SFBs; Executive Directors, Chief General Managers and colleagues from the Reserve Bank of India; ladies and gentlemen. A very good morning to all of you. 2. It is an honour to address this distinguished gathering in the inaugural conference of Board of Directors of Small Finance Banks organised by the RBI. As has been mentioned, this conference is in continuation of the Reserve Bank’s efforts to reach out to its supervised entities through a direct dialogue with their Boards and Top Management. Our objective is to reaffirm the importance of good governance for maintaining financial stability and fostering sustainable growth.

1. Regional Director of RBI for Karnataka, Smt. Sonali Sen Gupta; Chief General Manager, NABARD, Shri KVSSLV Prasada Rao; Chief General Manager, Canara Bank and Convenor, SLBC Karnataka, Shri K.J. Shrikanth; Area Heads of Union Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, senior executives from banks; Lead District Managers (LDMs); District Development Managers (DDMs); LDOs and other officers of RBI, present here. Ellarigu Namaskara and a very good morning to all.

I am delighted to have been invited by the Nepal Rashtra Bank (NRB) to deliver the inaugural Himalaya Shumsher Memorial Lecture. I deem it as a privilege. I place on record my appreciation of the Nepal Rashtra Bank for initiating this lecture series in honour of Shri Himalaya Shumsher Rana, the first governor of NRB from1956 to 1961. He contributed immensely to the development of Nepalese monetary and financial systems. His efforts laid the foundation for many of Nepal's key financial institutions and contributed significantly to the country's economic development. Nepal and India have enjoyed a long standing relationship that goes back into history. It is not just a relationship between the two countries, it is also a close people to people relationship. The Nepal Rashtra Bank and the Reserve Bank of India also share a close relationship based on mutual co-operation.

1. Distinguished Guests, Dr R. C. Agrawal, Deputy Director General, Indian Council for Agricultural Research; Dr Sunil Gorantiwar, former Director of Research, Agricultural University , Rahuri; Principal, CAB; senior officials from Financial and Academic Institutions; colleagues from RBI; ladies and gentlemen. A very good morning to all of you.