As per the standard practice, India's external debt statistics for the quarters ending March and June are released by the Reserve Bank of India with a lag of one quarter and those for the quarters ending September and December by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. The external debt data as at end-June 2016 in rupees and US dollars as well as revised data for earlier quarters are set out in Statements 1 and 2, respectively. The major developments relating to India’s external debt as at end-June 2016 are presented below. Highlights At end-June 2016, India’s external debt witnessed a decline of 1.1 per cent over its level at end-March 2016, primarily on account of a decline in commercial borrowings. The decline in the magnitude of external debt was partly due to valuation gains resulting from the appreciation of the US dollar vis-a-vis the Indian rupee and other major currencies. The external debt to GDP ratio stood at 23.4 per cent as at end-June 2016, a shade lower than its level of 23.7 per cent at end-March 2016. Major highlights pertaining to India’s external debt as at end-June 2016 are presented below:
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At end-June 2016, India’s external debt was placed at US$ 479.7 billion, recording a decline of US$ 5.4 billion over its level at end-March 2016 (Table 1).
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Valuation gains due to appreciation of the US dollar against the Indian rupee and other major currencies was placed at US$ 1.4 billion. Excluding the valuation effect, the decline in external debt would have been US$ 4.0 billion instead of US$ 5.4 billion as at end-June 2016 over the level at end-March 2016.
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Commercial borrowings continued to be the largest component of external debt with a share of 36.6 per cent, followed by NRI deposits (26.3 per cent) and short-term trade credit (16.6 per cent).
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At end-June 2016, long-term debt was placed at US$ 397.6 billion, recording a decline of US$ 4.1 billion over its level at end-March 2016. The share of long-term debt in total external debt was marginally higher at 82.9 per cent as at end-June 2016 as compared to its level at end-March 2016.
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The share of short-term debt (original maturity) in total debt witnessed a marginal decline over its level at end-March 2016. The ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to foreign exchange reserves declined to 22.6 per cent as at end-June 2016 (23.1 per cent at end-March 2016).
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On a residual maturity basis, short-term debt constituted 42.4 per cent of total external debt at end-June 2016 (42.6 per cent at end-March 2016) and stood at 55.9 per cent of total foreign exchange reserves (57.4 per cent at end-March 2016) (Table 2).
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US dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest component of India’s external debt with a share of 57.1 per cent as at end-June 2016, followed by the Indian rupee (28.6 per cent), SDR (5.9 per cent), Japanese yen (4.8 per cent) and Euro (2.4 per cent).
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The borrower classification shows that the outstanding debt of the Government increased; however, non-Government debt declined at end-June 2016 (Table 3).
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Debt service payments declined to 7.5 per cent of current receipts as at end-June 2016 as compared with 8.8 per cent at end-March 2016 (Table 4).
Table 1: External Debt - Outstanding and Variation |
(US$ billion) |
Component |
Outstanding at the end of |
Absolute variation |
Percentage variation |
June 2015 R |
March 2016 PR |
June 2016 P |
Jun-16 over Jun-15 |
Jun-16 over Mar-16 |
Jun-16 over Jun-15 |
Jun-16 over Mar-16 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
1. Multilateral |
53.4 |
54.0 |
54.5 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
2. Bilateral |
21.2 |
22.5 |
24.0 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
13.0 |
6.6 |
3. IMF |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
4. Trade Credit |
11.9 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
-11.2 |
-1.1 |
5.Commercial Borrowings |
185.0 |
180.8 |
175.7 |
-9.3 |
-5.1 |
-5.0 |
-2.8 |
6. NRI Deposits |
119.9 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
6.4 |
-0.7 |
5.3 |
-0.5 |
7. Rupee Debt |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
-21.7 |
-14.3 |
8. Short-term Debt |
83.6 |
83.4 |
82.1 |
-1.6 |
-1.3 |
-1.9 |
-1.6 |
Of which |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Short-term Trade Credit |
79.3 |
80.0 |
79.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
0.5 |
-0.4 |
Total Debt |
482.0 |
485.1 |
479.7 |
-2.4 |
-5.4 |
-0.5 |
-1.1 |
Memo Items |
A. Long-term Debt |
398.4 |
401.7 |
397.6 |
-0.8 |
-4.1 |
-0.2 |
-1.0 |
B. Short-term Debt |
83.6 |
83.4 |
82.1 |
-1.6 |
-1.3 |
-1.9 |
-1.6 |
P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised. R: Revised |
Table 2: Residual Maturity of External Debt Outstanding as at End-June 2016 |
(US$ billion) |
Component |
Short-term up to one year |
Long-term |
Total (2 to 5) |
1 to 2 years |
2 to 3 years |
More than 3 years |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
1. Sovereign Debt (Long-term) $ |
4.4 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
77.3 |
94.6 |
2. Commercial Borrowings # |
26.2 |
20.3 |
23.2 |
107.0 |
176.8 |
3. NRI Deposits {(i)+(ii)+(iii)} |
90.5 |
13.1 |
11.3 |
11.4 |
126.3 |
(i) FCNR(B) |
33.1 |
2.7 |
6.1 |
3.2 |
45.1 |
(ii) NR(E)RA |
48.9 |
9.6 |
4.9 |
7.8 |
71.2 |
(iii) NRO |
8.4 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
10.0 |
4. Short-term Debt* (Original maturity) |
82.1 |
|
|
|
82.1 |
Total (1 to 4) |
203.2 |
39.5 |
41.2 |
195.8 |
479.7 |
Memo Items |
Short-term Debt (Residual maturity) as per cent of Total External Debt |
42.4 |
Short-term Debt (Residual maturity) as per cent of Reserves |
55.9 |
$: Inclusive of FII Investments in Government Securities. #: Commercial Borrowings are inclusive of trade credit, FII investments in corporate debt instruments and a portion of non-Government multilateral and bilateral borrowings and therefore may not tally with the figures provided in other Tables under original maturity. *: Also includes FII investments in sovereign debt and commercial paper. |
Table 3: Government and Non-Government External Debt |
(US$ billion) |
Component |
End-March |
End-June |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 PR |
2016 P |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
A. Sovereign Debt (I+II) |
83.7 |
89.7 |
93.4 |
94.7 |
(As a percentage of GDP) |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
I. External Debt on Government Account under External Assistance |
62.2 |
58.5 |
61.1 |
63.3 |
II. Other Government External Debt @ |
21.5 |
31.3 |
32.4 |
31.4 |
B. Non-Government Debt # |
362.5 |
385.3 |
391.6 |
385.0 |
(As a percentage of GDP) |
19.3 |
19.3 |
19.1 |
18.8 |
C. Total External Debt (A+B) |
446.2 |
475.0 |
485.1 |
479.7 |
(As a percentage of GDP) |
23.8 |
23.8 |
23.7 |
23.4 |
P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised. @: Other Government external debt includes Defence Debt, Investment in Treasury Bills/ Government Securities by FIIs, Foreign Central Banks and International Institutions and IMF. #: Includes external debt of Monetary Authority. |
Table 4: India’s Key External Debt Indicators |
End-March |
External Debt (US $ billion) |
Ratio of External Debt to GDP (per cent) |
Debt Service Ratio (per cent) |
Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total Debt (per cent) |
Ratio of Concessional Debt to Total Debt (per cent) |
Ratio of Short-Term Debt to Foreign Exchange Reserves (per cent) |
Ratio of Short-Term Debt to Total Debt (per cent) |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
1991 |
83.8 |
28.7 |
35.3 |
7.0 |
45.9 |
146.5 |
10.2 |
1996 |
93.7 |
27.0 |
26.2 |
23.1 |
44.7 |
23.2 |
5.4 |
2001 |
101.3 |
22.5 |
16.6 |
41.7 |
35.4 |
8.6 |
3.6 |
2006 |
139.1 |
16.8 |
10.1# |
109.0 |
28.4 |
12.9 |
14.0 |
2007 |
172.4 |
17.5 |
4.7 |
115.6 |
23.0 |
14.1 |
16.3 |
2008 |
224.4 |
18.0 |
4.8 |
138.0 |
19.7 |
14.8 |
20.4 |
2009 |
224.5 |
20.3 |
4.4 |
112.2 |
18.7 |
17.2 |
19.3 |
2010 |
260.9 |
18.2 |
5.8 |
106.9 |
16.8 |
18.8 |
20.1 |
2011 |
317.9 |
18.2 |
4.4 |
95.9 |
14.9 |
21.3 |
20.4 |
2012 |
360.8 |
21.1 |
6.0 |
81.6 |
13.3 |
26.6 |
21.7 |
2013 |
409.5 |
22.4 |
5.9 |
71.3 |
11.1 |
33.1 |
23.6 |
2014 |
446.2 |
23.8 |
5.9 |
68.2 |
10.4 |
30.1 |
20.5 |
2015 |
475.0 |
23.8 |
7.6 |
71.9 |
8.8 |
25.0 |
18.0 |
2016 PR |
485.1 |
23.7 |
8.8 |
74.3 |
9.0 |
23.1 |
17.2 |
End-June 2016 P |
479.7 |
23.4 |
7.5 |
75.8 |
9.4 |
22.6 |
17.1 |
P: Provisional. PR: Partially Revised. # works out to 6.3 per cent with the exclusion of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) repayments of US $ 7.1 billion and pre-payment of external debt of US $ 23.5 million. |
Ajit Prasad Assistant Adviser Press Release : 2016-2017/824 |