Consumer Confidence Survey

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சொத்து வெளியீட்டாளர்

வெளியிடப்பட்ட தேதி ஏப்ரல் 05, 2024

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Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of March 2024 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS)¹. The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during March 2-11, 2024, covering 6,083 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 50.8 per cent of this sample.

Highlights:

Consumer confidence for the current period has been on a path of sustained recovery; respondents assessed improvement in all survey parameters; the current situation index (CSI)² rose by 3.4 points to 98.5 – its highest level since mid-2019 (Chart 1; Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6).
Consumer confidence for the year ahead improved further on the back of higher optimism in all CCS parameters; higher optimism resulted in the future expectations index (FEI) rising further by 2.1 points to 125.2 – also its highest level since mid-2019 (Chart 1; Tables 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6).
Households’ sentiments on general economic situation and employment prospects recorded notable improvements for both the current period as well as the upcoming year; in synchrony, their outlook on discretionary spending improved (Tables 1, 2 and 8).
Respondents assessed better income situation compared to a year ago and expected further rise in income in the year ahead (Table 5).

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.³

Table 1: Perceptions and Expectations on the General Economic Situation
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	31.4	16.9	51.7	-20.4	49.9	15.1	35.0	15.0
May-23	32.1	19.0	48.9	-16.8	51.0	15.8	33.2	17.8
Jul-23	30.4	18.5	51.1	-20.7	51.1	15.1	33.8	17.2
Sep-23	36.1	19.9	44.0	-7.9	56.8	15.1	28.1	28.6
Nov-23	33.1	22.5	44.4	-11.3	54.3	17.2	28.5	25.7
Jan-24	37.5	22.3	40.2	-2.7	59.2	15.3	25.5	33.7
Mar-24	41.2	23.1	35.8	5.4	60.7	15.8	23.4	37.3

Table 2: Perceptions and Expectations on Employment
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	32.2	19.9	47.9	-15.7	52.9	17.1	30.1	22.8
May-23	32.1	20.2	47.7	-15.6	52.1	18.7	29.2	22.9
Jul-23	30.8	21.0	48.2	-17.5	51.4	18.3	30.3	21.1
Sep-23	34.0	21.8	44.2	-10.2	55.8	18.1	26.2	29.6
Nov-23	32.3	23.0	44.7	-12.4	53.6	19.7	26.8	26.9
Jan-24	35.3	23.4	41.3	-6.0	58.7	17.4	24.0	34.7
Mar-24	38.1	23.8	38.1	0.0	60.0	17.4	22.6	37.4

Table 3: Perceptions and Expectations on Price Level
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	93.8	5.2	1.0	-92.9	84.3	9.0	6.7	-77.5
May-23	92.2	6.4	1.4	-90.8	82.7	10.0	7.3	-75.4
Jul-23	92.7	6.0	1.3	-91.4	80.9	10.2	8.9	-72.0
Sep-23	91.8	6.4	1.8	-90.0	78.4	9.9	11.7	-66.8
Nov-23	91.3	7.3	1.4	-89.9	81.0	10.2	8.8	-72.3
Jan-24	90.8	7.2	2.0	-88.9	80.5	10.4	9.1	-71.4
Mar-24	89.2	9.3	1.4	-87.8	78.2	12.5	9.4	-68.8

Table 4: Perceptions and Expectations on Rate of Change in Price Level (Inflation)*
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	86.5	10.0	3.5	-82.9	81.4	14.0	4.6	-76.8
May-23	84.0	12.5	3.4	-80.6	81.8	14.1	4.1	-77.8
Jul-23	84.5	11.8	3.7	-80.8	80.8	14.8	4.4	-76.4
Sep-23	82.5	13.4	4.2	-78.3	79.4	15.8	4.8	-74.6
Nov-23	81.8	13.6	4.6	-77.2	80.1	14.7	5.2	-75.0
Jan-24	79.5	15.7	4.8	-74.7	77.2	17.8	5.0	-72.2
Mar-24	77.0	17.6	5.4	-71.6	76.7	18.3	5.0	-71.7
*Applicable only for those respondents who felt price has increased/price will increase.

Table 5: Perceptions and Expectations on Income
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	22.2	49.7	28.1	-5.9	54.1	38.4	7.5	46.7
May-23	23.9	49.7	26.3	-2.4	53.8	39.4	6.9	46.9
Jul-23	25.4	49.9	24.8	0.6	54.7	38.6	6.7	48.0
Sep-23	25.0	49.8	25.2	-0.3	55.7	37.8	6.5	49.2
Nov-23	27.2	50.1	22.7	4.5	57.9	36.0	6.1	51.8
Jan-24	26.4	51.5	22.1	4.2	56.3	36.9	6.8	49.4
Mar-24	27.7	50.6	21.7	6.0	56.7	37.2	6.1	50.5

Table 6: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	75.0	19.6	5.4	69.6	75.4	19.9	4.6	70.8
May-23	73.4	21.3	5.3	68.1	73.8	21.7	4.6	69.2
Jul-23	74.5	20.5	5.0	69.6	73.8	21.3	4.8	69.0
Sep-23	74.6	20.2	5.2	69.4	75.2	20.3	4.6	70.6
Nov-23	74.8	20.6	4.6	70.1	75.0	21.0	4.1	70.9
Jan-24	73.2	22.3	4.5	68.6	74.2	20.9	5.0	69.2
Mar-24	73.1	23.1	3.8	69.2	73.9	21.7	4.3	69.6

Table 7: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	85.3	11.5	3.2	82.1	81.7	14.8	3.5	78.2
May-23	84.0	12.8	3.2	80.8	81.3	15.2	3.5	77.8
Jul-23	85.3	11.8	3.0	82.3	81.0	15.5	3.5	77.5
Sep-23	84.9	11.9	3.2	81.7	82.0	14.4	3.6	78.4
Nov-23	85.7	11.4	2.9	82.7	82.3	14.4	3.4	78.9
Jan-24	84.1	12.9	3.0	81.1	81.8	14.6	3.6	78.2
Mar-24	84.5	13.0	2.5	82.0	82.5	14.5	3.0	79.5

Table 8: Perceptions and Expectations on Spending- Non-Essential Items
(Percentage responses)
Survey Round	Current Perception				One year ahead Expectation
Survey Round	Increased	Remained Same	Decreased	Net Response	Will Increase	Will Remain Same	Will Decrease	Net Response
Mar-23	25.2	34.8	40.0	-14.8	34.5	36.8	28.8	5.7
May-23	25.8	38.2	36.1	-10.3	35.3	37.5	27.2	8.2
Jul-23	26.6	36.9	36.5	-10.0	34.8	37.6	27.6	7.3
Sep-23	23.4	38.5	38.2	-14.8	33.0	38.2	28.8	4.2
Nov-23	25.2	36.6	38.2	-13.0	34.1	36.8	29.0	5.1
Jan-24	27.2	36.2	36.6	-9.4	34.6	36.4	29.0	5.5
Mar-24	29.2	37.6	33.2	-4.1	35.7	37.6	26.7	9.0

¹ The survey results reflect the respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank. Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on February 08, 2024.

² CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period (as compared with one year ago) and a year ahead, respectively. CSI and FEI = 100 + Average of Net Responses of the above parameters.

³ Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://dbie.rbi.org.in/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.

⁴ ‘Net response’ is the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting optimism and those reporting pessimisms. It ranges between -100 and 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/ optimism and values less than zero indicate contraction/ pessimism.