The Reserve Bank has been conducting the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) since September 2007. The responses for the 67th round of the survey were received during November 12- December 1, 20202, wherein twenty nine panellists participated. The survey results are summarised in terms of their median forecasts (Annex 1-7), along with quarterly paths for key variables. Highlights: 1. Output
-
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 8.5 per cent in 2020-21 but it is expected to recover next year, when it is expected to grow by 9.5 per cent; the growth projections for both the years were revised upwards from the last round (Table 1).
-
Real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is assessed to contract by 9.7 per cent during 2020-21, followed by an expansion of 9.9 per cent in the next year.
-
Real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is projected to record a decline of 19.1 per cent in 2020-21 and then to grow by 12.2 per cent in 2021-22.
-
Forecasters have assigned highest probability to real GDP growth lying between (-)8.5-(-)8.1 per cent in 2020-21 (Chart 1). For 2021-22, highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth lying in the range of above 9.0 per cent (Chart 2).
-
Despite expansion in agricultural activities, real gross value added (GVA) is expected to decline by 8.2 per cent in 2020-21; it is likely to record 9.1 per cent growth next year, supported by improvements in industrial and services activities.
| Table 1: Median Forecast of Growth in GDP, GVA and components |
| (in per cent) |
| |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
| Real GDP growth rate |
-8.5
(+0.6) |
9.5
(+1.3) |
| a. Real PFCE growth rate |
-9.7
(+1.3) |
9.9
(+1.4) |
| b. Real GFCF growth rate |
-19.1
(+1.9) |
12.2
(+2.2) |
| Nominal PFCE growth rate |
-6.9
(0.0) |
13.3
(+1.9) |
| Real GVA Growth |
-8.2
(+0.2) |
9.1
(+0.9) |
| a. Agriculture and Allied Activities |
3.5
(-0.2) |
3.2
(0.0) |
| b. Industry |
-10.5
(+2.5) |
11.2
(+1.5) |
| c. Services |
-9.7
(0.0) |
9.5
(+0.4) |
Gross Saving Rate
[per cent of gross national disposable income] (GNDI)] |
27.1
(+1.1) |
27.1
(+0.1) |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate
[per cent of GDP at current market prices] |
26.2
(+0.8) |
27.4
(-0.3) |
| Note: In all the tables, the figures in parentheses indicate the extent of revision in median forecasts (percentage points) relative to the previous SPF round. |
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions is given in Annex 6.
Note: Detailed probability distribution is given in Annex 6. Inflation
-
Headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation is expected at 6.6 per cent in Q3:2020-21, but moderate thereafter to 4.5 per cent by Q2:2021-22; the inflation projections have been revised up for all the four quarters when compared with the previous survey round (Table 2).
-
CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light, is expected to rise to 5.4 per cent during Q3:2020-21 and moderate thereafter to 4.3 per cent by Q2:2021-22.
| Table 2: Median Forecast of Quarterly Inflation |
| (in per cent) |
| |
Q3:2020-21 |
Q4:2020-21 |
Q1:2021-22 |
Q2:2021-22 |
| CPI Combined (General) |
6.6
(+1.7) |
5.4
(+1.2) |
5.0
(+1.1) |
4.5
(+0.7) |
| CPI Combined excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants and fuel and light |
5.4
(-0.2) |
5.3
(+0.1) |
4.8
(+0.1) |
4.3
(+0.1) |
| WPI All Commodities |
1.3
(+1.2) |
1.3
(+1.0) |
4.1
(+1.6) |
2.6
(+0.5) |
| WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
1.8
(+0.5) |
1.8
(+0.6) |
2.6
(+0.6) |
2.6
(+0.7) |
- Forecasters have assigned the highest probability to CPI inflation lying in the range of 6.5-6.9 per cent in Q3:2020-21; 5.0-5.4 per cent in Q4:2020-21; 4.5-4.9 per cent in Q1:2021-22; and 4.0-4.4 per cent in Q2:2021-22 (Chart 3).
Note: Tails of the distribution are not presented in the chart. Detailed probability distributions are given in Annex 7. 2. External Sector
- Merchandise exports and imports are projected to decline by 11.3 per cent and 23.2 per cent, respectively, during 2020-21 before reverting to growth terrain in 2021-22 (Table 3).
| Table 3: Median Forecast of Select External Sector Variables |
| |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
Merchandise Exports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
-11.3
(+3.4) |
12.5
(+2.3) |
Merchandise Imports in US $ terms
(annual growth in per cent) |
-23.2
(-0.5) |
23.2
(+2.6) |
Current Account Balance
(per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
1.2
(+0.7) |
-0.4
(+0.2) |
The Reserve Bank thanks the following panellists for their participation in this round of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF):
Abhishek Gupta (Bloomberg Economics); Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited); Barclays Bank PLC; Charu Chanana (Continuum Economics); CRISIL Ltd.; Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprises Limited); Devendra Kumar Pant (India Ratings and Research); NCAER; Rupa Rege Nitsure (L&T Finance Holdings); Sameer Narang (Bank of Baroda); Shailesh Kejariwal (Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt ltd); Siddharth Kothari (Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd); TAC Economics; Tirthankar Patnaik (National Stock Exchange) and YES Bank.
The Bank also acknowledges the contribution of fourteen others SPF panellists, who prefer to remain anonymous. |
| Annex 1: Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2020-21 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-8.3 |
-8.5 |
-2.2 |
-12.5 |
-9.0 |
-7.8 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-10.2 |
-9.7 |
-6.1 |
-20.0 |
-11.1 |
-8.1 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-19.5 |
-19.1 |
-10.2 |
-31.0 |
-23.6 |
-15.5 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-6.5 |
-6.9 |
-3.2 |
-10.4 |
-8.0 |
-4.3 |
| 3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
26.4 |
26.2 |
27.2 |
26.0 |
26.1 |
26.5 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-8.2 |
-8.2 |
-4.8 |
-12.2 |
-8.8 |
-7.3 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.6 |
3.5 |
4.8 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
4.2 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-11.3 |
-10.5 |
-5.0 |
-20.7 |
-13.0 |
-8.6 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-9.7 |
-9.7 |
-5.0 |
-15.0 |
-10.8 |
-8.5 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
29.3 |
27.1 |
34.0 |
26.9 |
27.0 |
30.5 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
7.9 |
7.7 |
10.1 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
12.6 |
12.5 |
15.1 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
13.0 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
4.9 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
1.0 |
4.5 |
5.7 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
5.9 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
3.4 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
-11.8 |
-11.3 |
3.0 |
-31.0 |
-14.0 |
-9.2 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
-23.4 |
-23.2 |
-8.0 |
-35.0 |
-24.9 |
-22.2 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
30.0 |
30.7 |
69.5 |
-50.0 |
23.9 |
37.6 |
| 14 |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2.9 |
-1.8 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
| 15 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
90.3 |
90.0 |
129.0 |
55.0 |
78.1 |
105.3 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
6.3 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
5.5 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
0.4 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 19 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
0.7 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
| Annex 2: Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Annual Forecasts for 2021-22 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
1st quartile |
3rd quartile |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.4 |
9.5 |
13.0 |
7.4 |
8.7 |
10.0 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
10.7 |
9.9 |
16.3 |
8.2 |
9.4 |
11.9 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
12.5 |
12.2 |
22.1 |
4.0 |
10.0 |
15.0 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
13.6 |
13.3 |
18.0 |
10.2 |
12.4 |
14.5 |
| 3 |
Gross Capital Formation (GCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
28.0 |
27.4 |
30.1 |
27.0 |
27.1 |
28.2 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
8.9 |
9.1 |
10.3 |
7.3 |
8.5 |
9.5 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.6 |
3.2 |
6.5 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.0 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
11.0 |
11.2 |
15.5 |
7.0 |
9.9 |
12.4 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
9.5 |
9.5 |
11.5 |
7.8 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
| 5 |
Gross Saving Rate (per cent of Gross National Disposable Income) - at current prices |
28.4 |
27.1 |
31.6 |
26.5 |
26.8 |
29.3 |
| 6 |
Fiscal Deficit of Central Govt. (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
6.0 |
5.8 |
8.0 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
6.6 |
| 7 |
Combined Gross Fiscal Deficit (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
9.8 |
9.5 |
12.0 |
7.0 |
9.0 |
10.6 |
| 8 |
Bank Credit of Scheduled commercial banks: Annual Growth (per cent) |
7.7 |
8.0 |
12.0 |
5.0 |
6.5 |
8.5 |
| 9 |
Yield on 10-Year G-Sec of Central Govt. (end-period) |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
| 10 |
Yield on 91-day T-Bill of Central Govt. (end-period) |
3.8 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
| 11 |
Merchandise Exports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
13.8 |
12.5 |
25.0 |
6.0 |
10.9 |
17.4 |
| 12 |
Merchandise Imports (BoP basis in US$ terms): Annual Growth (per cent) |
24.1 |
23.2 |
43.5 |
10.0 |
18.0 |
27.0 |
| 13 |
Current Account Balance in US$ bn. |
-11.2 |
-11.5 |
15.5 |
-45.0 |
-19.9 |
4.3 |
| 14 |
Current Account Balance (per cent to GDP at current market prices) |
-0.4 |
-0.4 |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
| 15 |
Overall BoP in US$ bn. |
49.5 |
50.5 |
73.5 |
2.0 |
41.1 |
62.5 |
| 16 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: Headline |
4.5 |
4.5 |
6.2 |
3.7 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
| 17 |
Inflation based on CPI Combined: excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
4.3 |
4.2 |
5.1 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
| 18 |
Inflation based on WPI: All Commodities |
2.6 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
| 19 |
Inflation based on WPI: Non-food Manufactured Products |
2.1 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
| Annex 3: Quarterly Forecasts from Q3:2020-21 to Q2:2021-22 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q3: 2020-21 |
Q4: 2020-21 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-2.0 |
-2.0 |
6.0 |
-8.6 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
6.0 |
-6.2 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-2.6 |
-3.0 |
4.0 |
-7.1 |
1.6 |
0.9 |
8.0 |
-5.6 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-11.1 |
-10.0 |
0.3 |
-24.7 |
-6.0 |
-5.2 |
5.4 |
-23.9 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
0.4 |
0.5 |
4.8 |
-5.2 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
12.5 |
-2.6 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
24.3 |
24.5 |
26.8 |
21.8 |
24.8 |
25.0 |
28.0 |
21.8 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-1.8 |
-1.7 |
6.0 |
-8.4 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
6.0 |
-6.9 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.7 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
5.5 |
1.1 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-2.3 |
-1.1 |
5.1 |
-15.7 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
-13.4 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
-4.2 |
-4.3 |
2.0 |
-9.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
3.0 |
-7.2 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
0.5 |
1.0 |
5.0 |
-4.5 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
15.8 |
0.9 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
76.4 |
75.3 |
83.0 |
70.1 |
79.2 |
79.0 |
88.0 |
71.7 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
103.1 |
104.5 |
110.0 |
89.2 |
109.2 |
109.0 |
122.0 |
96.9 |
| 8 |
Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) |
73.9 |
74.0 |
75.0 |
72.8 |
73.8 |
73.0 |
76.0 |
72.5 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
43.8 |
44.1 |
45.0 |
42.0 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
48.0 |
42.0 |
| 10 |
Policy Repo Rate (end-period) |
3.93 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
3.00 |
3.89 |
4.00 |
4.00 |
2.75 |
| |
Key Macroeconomic Indicators |
Quarterly Forecasts |
| Q1: 2021-22 |
Q2: 2021-22 |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| 1 |
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
22.5 |
21.0 |
36.9 |
9.9 |
9.2 |
9.1 |
15.1 |
5.7 |
| a |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
24.1 |
23.0 |
39.3 |
10.0 |
10.9 |
10.9 |
16.3 |
7.8 |
| b |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
33.3 |
31.8 |
79.9 |
5.1 |
11.2 |
10.2 |
30.0 |
0.5 |
| 2 |
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
26.9 |
28.8 |
41.2 |
12.1 |
14.3 |
14.8 |
19.1 |
8.1 |
| 3 |
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) Rate (per cent of GDP at current market prices) |
23.2 |
22.9 |
29.1 |
19.8 |
24.4 |
24.7 |
29.8 |
20.8 |
| 4 |
GVA at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
21.5 |
19.5 |
36.0 |
9.7 |
9.1 |
8.7 |
14.9 |
7.0 |
| a |
Agriculture & Allied Activities at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
3.9 |
3.4 |
6.5 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
7.7 |
2.0 |
| b |
Industry at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
35.1 |
35.0 |
55.4 |
10.2 |
9.5 |
11.0 |
13.7 |
1.3 |
| c |
Services at constant (2011-12) prices: Annual Growth (per cent) |
21.7 |
19.5 |
39.2 |
9.5 |
9.9 |
9.6 |
17.6 |
6.8 |
| 5 |
IIP (2011-12=100): Quarterly Average Growth (per cent) |
36.4 |
39.9 |
85.0 |
3.0 |
10.1 |
9.5 |
25.0 |
1.1 |
| 6 |
Merchandise Exports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
77.3 |
76.7 |
85.0 |
68.3 |
81.2 |
81.8 |
85.9 |
75.4 |
| 7 |
Merchandise Imports - BoP basis (in US$ bn.) |
106.0 |
104.4 |
125.0 |
96.6 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
135.0 |
99.8 |
| 8 |
Rupee per US $ Exchange rate (end-period) |
73.8 |
73.5 |
76.3 |
71.4 |
73.8 |
73.5 |
77.0 |
70.3 |
| 9 |
Crude Oil (Indian basket) price (US $ per barrel) (end-period) |
45.8 |
45.0 |
51.2 |
40.0 |
48.3 |
48.5 |
55.0 |
43.0 |
| 10 |
Policy Repo Rate (end-period) |
3.79 |
3.75 |
4.50 |
2.75 |
3.87 |
3.75 |
5.50 |
3.00 |
| Annex 4: Forecasts of CPI Combined Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
CPI Combined (General) |
CPI Combined excluding Food and Beverages, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants and Fuel and Light |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q3:2020-21 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
7.5 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
| Q4:2020-21 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
7.4 |
4.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
| Q1:2021-22 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
4.1 |
| Q2:2021-22 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
3.5 |
| Annex 5: Forecasts of WPI Inflation |
| (per cent) |
| |
WPI All Commodities |
WPI Non-food Manufactured Products |
| Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
Mean |
Median |
Max |
Min |
| Q3:2020-21 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
0.9 |
| Q4:2020-21 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
3.8 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
1.1 |
| Q1:2021-22 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
6.4 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
| Q2:2021-22 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
3.9 |
1.1 |
| Annex 6: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of Real GDP growth |
| Growth Range |
Forecasts for 2020-21 |
Forecasts for 2021-22 |
| 10.0 per cent or more |
0 |
0.18 |
| 9.5 to 9.9 per cent |
0 |
0.17 |
| 9.0 to 9.4 per cent |
0 |
0.18 |
| 8.5 to 8.9 per cent |
0 |
0.15 |
| 8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0 |
0.13 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0 |
0.06 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0 |
0.10 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0 |
0.01 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0 |
0.00 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0 |
0.00 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0 |
0.02 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0 |
0.00 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0 |
0.00 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0 |
0.01 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| 0.0 to 0.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -0.5 to -0.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -1.5 to -1.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -2.0 to -1.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -2.5 to -2.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -3.0 to -2.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -3.5 to -3.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -4.0 to -3.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -4.5 to -4.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -5.0 to -4.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
| -5.5 to -5.1 per cent |
0.03 |
0 |
| -6.0 to -5.6 per cent |
0.02 |
0 |
| -6.5 to -6.1 per cent |
0.07 |
0 |
| -7.0 to -6.6 per cent |
0.06 |
0 |
| -7.5 to -7.1 per cent |
0.05 |
0 |
| -8.0 to -7.6 per cent |
0.13 |
0 |
| -8.5 to -8.1 per cent |
0.23 |
0 |
| -9.0 to -8.6 per cent |
0.19 |
0 |
| -9.5 to -9.1 per cent |
0.06 |
0 |
| -10.0 to -9.6 per cent |
0.06 |
0 |
| -10.5 to -10.1 per cent |
0.06 |
0 |
| -11.0 to -10.5 per cent |
0.01 |
0 |
| below -11.0 per cent |
0.03 |
0 |
| Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off. |
| Annex 7: Mean probabilities attached to possible outcomes of CPI (Combined) inflation |
| Inflation Range |
Forecasts for Q3:2020-21 |
Forecasts for Q4:2020-21 |
Forecasts for Q1:2021-22 |
Forecasts for Q2:2021-22 |
| 9.0 per cent or above |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8.5 to 9.0 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8.0 to 8.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 7.5 to 7.9 per cent |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0 |
0 |
| 7.0 to 7.4 per cent |
0.14 |
0.02 |
0 |
0 |
| 6.5 to 6.9 per cent |
0.42 |
0.05 |
0.04 |
0.02 |
| 6.0 to 6.4 per cent |
0.22 |
0.13 |
0.06 |
0.03 |
| 5.5 to 5.9 per cent |
0.08 |
0.20 |
0.17 |
0.05 |
| 5.0 to 5.4 per cent |
0.07 |
0.31 |
0.22 |
0.12 |
| 4.5 to 4.9 per cent |
0.04 |
0.16 |
0.29 |
0.18 |
| 4.0 to 4.4 per cent |
0.01 |
0.09 |
0.17 |
0.34 |
| 3.5 to 3.9 per cent |
0 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.21 |
| 3.0 to 3.4 per cent |
0 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
| 2.5 to 2.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.01 |
| 2.0 to 2.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1.5 to 1.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 0 to 0.4 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| -0.5 to -0.1 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Below -1.0 per cent |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Note: The sum of the probabilities may not add up to one due to rounding off.
Note: CPI: Consumer Price Index; GDP: Gross Domestic Products; GNDI: Gross National Disposable Income; GVA: Gross Value Added; IIP: Index of Industrial Production; WPI: Wholesale Price Index. |
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