The Indian economy continued to exhibit robust growth during the second quarter
(July-September) of 2007-08, albeit with some moderation. According to the Central
Statistical Organisation (CSO), real GDP growth moderated to 8.9 per cent during
the second quarter of 2007-08 from 10.2 per cent in the corresponding period of
2006-07. Real GDP growth during the first half of 2007-08 was estimated at 9.1
per cent as compared with 9.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2006-07
(Table 1 and Chart
1). While agriculture and allied activities recorded higher growth during
the first half of 2007-08 over the corresponding period of the previous year,
the growth in industrial and services sectors was somewhat lower than in the previous
year.
Table 1: Growth Rates of Real GDP (At 1999-2000 prices) |
(Per cent) |
Sector |
2000-01
to 2006-07
(Average) |
2005-06* |
2006-07# |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
2006-07 |
2007-08 |
|
|
|
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
April-September |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
1. |
Agriculture and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Allied Activities |
2.5 |
6.0 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
|
|
(21.4) |
(19.7) |
(18.5) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2. |
Industry |
7.0 |
8.0 |
11.0 |
10.6 |
11.3 |
10.8 |
11.2 |
10.6 |
8.3 |
11.0 |
9.5 |
|
|
(19.6) |
(19.4) |
(19.6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.1 |
Mining and Quarrying |
4.6 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
5.5 |
7.1 |
3.2 |
7.7 |
3.8 |
5.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.2 |
Manufacturing |
7.7 |
9.1 |
12.3 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
11.8 |
12.4 |
11.9 |
8.6 |
12.5 |
10.2 |
2.3 |
Electricity, Gas and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Water Supply |
4.8 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
5.8 |
8.1 |
9.1 |
6.9 |
8.3 |
7.3 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
3. |
Services |
8.6 |
10.3 |
11.0 |
11.6 |
11.7 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
11.6 |
10.5 |
|
|
(59.0) |
(60.9) |
(61.8) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.1 |
Trade, Hotels, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Restaurants, Transport, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Storage and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Communication |
10.3 |
10.4 |
13.0 |
12.4 |
14.2 |
13.1 |
12.4 |
12.0 |
11.4 |
13.3 |
11.7 |
3.2 |
Financing, Insurance, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real Estate and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Business Services |
7.9 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
11.2 |
9.3 |
11.0 |
10.6 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
3.3 |
Community, Social and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Personal Services |
6.0 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
11.3 |
8.3 |
6.7 |
5.7 |
7.6 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
7.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3.4 |
Construction |
9.9 |
14.2 |
10.7 |
10.5 |
11.1 |
10 |
11.2 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
4. |
Real GDP at Factor Cost |
6.9 |
9.0 |
9.4 |
9.6 |
10.2 |
8.7 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
9.1 |
|
|
(100.0) |
(100.0) |
(100.0) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Memo: |
(Amount in Rupees crore) |
a)Real GDP at factor cost |
26,04,532 |
28,48,157 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
b)GDP at current market prices |
35,67,177 |
41,25,725 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*: Quick Estimates. #: Revised Estimates
Note : Figures in parentheses denote shares in real GDP.
Source : Central Statistical Organisation (CSO). |
Agricultural Situation
Cumulative rainfall during
the 2007 South-West monsoon season (June 1 to September 30) turned out to be 5
per cent above normal. The seasonal rainfall was well-distributed over time, barring
the short spells of rainfall deficiency during the first week of June, third and
fourth weeks of July and third week of August. At the end of the season (as on
September 27, 2007), water stock in 81 major reservoirs was 79 per cent of the
full reservoir level (FRL), lower than 87 per cent during the corresponding period
of the previous year, but higher than the average of 67 per cent over the last
10 years. Cumulative rainfall during the North-East monsoon (October 1, 2007 to
December 31, 2007) was, however, 32 per cent below normal as compared with 21
per cent below normal during the corresponding period of the previous year. Of
the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, cumulative rainfall was deficient/scanty/no
rain in 27 sub-divisions (same as last year) (Table
2). As on January 17, 2008, the total live water storage was 55 per cent of
the FRL (59 per cent last year).
The sowing of kharif crops improved during
2007-08 on account of satisfactory rainfall during the South-West monsoon and
remunerative market prices. The reported sown area as on October 26, 2007 was
about 2.7 per cent higher than the previous year (Table
3). In contrast, area sown under rabi crops so far (up to January 18, 2008)
has been about 3.7 per cent lower than a year ago. Rabi sowing was lower in case
of rice, wheat, pulses and oilseeds, but higher in case of coarse cereals than
in the previous year.
Table
2: Rainfall during South-West and North-East Monsoon |
(Number
of Meteorological Divisions) |
Year |
South-West
Monsoon |
North-East
Monsoon |
|
Cumulative |
Excess |
Normal |
Deficient |
Scanty/ |
Cumulative |
Excess |
Normal |
Deficient |
Scanty/ |
|
Rainfall: |
Rainfall |
Rainfall |
Rainfall |
No
Rain |
Rainfall: |
Rainfall |
Rainfall |
Rainfall |
No
Rain |
|
Above(+)/
Below (-) Normal
(per cent) |
|
|
|
|
Above(+)/
Below (-) Normal
(per cent) |
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
1998 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 0 | - | 28 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
1999 | -4 | 3 | 26 | 7 | 0 | - | 20 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
2000 | -8 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 |
2001 | -8 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 0 | - | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3 |
2002 | -19 | 1 | 14 | 19 | 2 | -33 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 14 |
2003 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 12 |
2004 | -13 | 0 | 23 | 13 | 0 | -11 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 1 |
2005 | -1 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
2006 | -1 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 0 | -21 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 13 |
2007 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 6 | 0 | -32 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 |
Excess:+20 per
cent or more. Normal : +19 per cent to - 19 per cent.
Deficient :- 20 per
cent to -59 per cent.
Scanty : - 60 per cent to -99 per cent. No Rain: -100
per cent.
Source : India Meteorological Department. |
The
First Advance Estimates for 2007-08 have placed the total kharif foodgrains production
at 112.2 million tonnes, which though lower than the target, was about 1.6 per
cent higher than that of the previous year (110.5 million
Table
3: Progress of Area under Crops - 2007-08 |
(Million
hectares) |
Crop | Normal
Area | Area
Coverage | Crop | Normal
Area | Area
Coverage |
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
Variation |
|
|
(As
reported on
January 18, 2008) |
| |
| |
| |
| 2006 | 2007 | Variation |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Kharif
Crops | Rabi
Crops | Rice | 38.2 | 37.1 | 37.3 | 0.2 | Rice | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | -0.1 |
Coarse Cereals | 22.9 | 22.1 | 22.0 | -0.1 | Wheat | 26.2 | 28.0 | 27.4 | -0.6 |
of which: |
| |
| | Coarse
Cereals | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 0.1 |
Bajra | 9.4 | 9.3 | 8.7 | -0.6 | of
which: | |
| |
| Jowar | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Jowar | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -0.1 |
Maize | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 0.6 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Maize | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
Total Pulses | 10.9 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 1.2 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Total
Pulses | 11.4 | 13.7 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
Total Kharif | Oilseeds15.4 | 16.8 | 17.7 | 0.9 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Total
Rabi Oilseeds | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.5 | -1.0 |
of which: |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | of
which: | |
| |
| Groundnut | 5.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 0.6 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Groundnut | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.1 |
Soyabean | 6.6 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 0.6 |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| | Rapeseed/Mustard | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.9 | -0.7 |
Sugarcane | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 0.3 |
| |
| |
| Cotton | 8.3 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 0.4 | Sunflower | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | -0.2 |
All Crops | 100.8 | 102.1 | 104.9 | 2.7 | All
Crops | 56.5 | 58.5 | 56.3 | -2.2 |
Source : Ministry
of Agriculture, Government of India. |
tonnes) (Table
4). The enhanced kharif foodgrains production is expected to be largely on
account of the recovery in the production of pulses and maize. Amongst the non-foodgrains,
while the production of sugarcane, jute and mesta, and cotton are expected to
witness modest growth over the previous year, that of oilseeds is likely to show
a significant increase.
Food Management
Total procurement
of rice and wheat during 2007-08 (up to January 9, 2008) aggregated 30.1 million
tonnes, which was higher by 1.5 per cent than that procured during the corresponding
period of the previous year mainly on account of a 20.6 per cent increase in wheat
procurement at 11.1 million tonnes. Total offtake of rice and wheat during 2007-08
(up to October 31, 2007) at 21.4 million tonnes was marginally lower, by 0.5 per
cent, than the 21.5 million tonnes offtake during the corresponding period of
the previous year. As on November 1, 2007, total stocks of foodgrains with the
Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other Government agencies were at around
Table
4: Agricultural Production | (Million
tonnes) |
Crop |
2003-04 |
2004-05 |
2005-06 |
2006-07* |
2007-08 |
|
|
|
|
|
T |
A@ |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
Rice | 88.5 | 83.1 | 91.8 | 92.8 | 93.0 |
| | Kharif | 78.6 | 72.2 | 78.3 | 80.1 | 80.0 | 80.2 |
| Rabi | 9.9 | 10.9 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.0 |
| Wheat | 72.2 | 68.6 | 69.4 | 74.9 | 75.5 |
| Coarse
Cereals | 37.6 | 33.5 | 34.1 | 34.3 | 37.5 |
| | Kharif | 32.2 | 26.4 | 26.7 | 25.7 | 28.7 | 26.6 |
| Rabi | 5.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
| Pulses | 14.9 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.5 |
| | Kharif | 6.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Rabi | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10.0 |
| Total
Foodgrains | 213.2 | 198.4 | 208.6 | 216.1 | 221.5 |
| | Kharif | 117.0 | 103.3 | 109.9 | 110.5 | 114.2 | 112.2 |
| Rabi | 96.2 | 95.1 | 98.7 | 105.6 | 107.3 |
| Total
Oilseeds | 25.2 | 24.4 | 28.0 | 23.9 | 30.0 |
| | Kharif | 16.7 | 14.1 | 16.8 | 13.9 | 18.5 | 16.1 |
| Rabi | 8.5 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| Sugarcane | 233.9 | 237.1 | 281.2 | 345.3 | 310.0 | 345.6 |
Cotton # | 13.7 | 16.4 | 18.5 | 22.7 | 22.0 | 22.9 |
Jute and Mesta ## | 11.2 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 11.3 |
T : Target. A :
Achievement.
@ : First Advance Estimate for Kharif
Production (September
19, 2007). * : Fourth Advance Estimates.
# : Million bales of 170 kgs each.
## : Million bales of 180 kgs each.
Source : Ministry of Agriculture, Government
of India. |
19.7 million tonnes, which were higher by 5.7
per cent than a year ago (18.7 million tonnes). Commodity-wise, the stock of rice
(10.7 million tonnes) was lower by 14.9 per cent than that of the previous year
(12.5 million tonnes), while the stock of wheat (9.0 million tonnes) was 50.6
per cent higher than that of the previous year (6.0 million tonnes) (Table
2).
Industrial Performance
Growth in
the index of industrial production (IIP) moderated to 9.2 per cent during April-November
2007 from 10.9 per cent during April-November 2006 (Chart
2).
Table
5: Management of Food Stocks | (Million
tonnes) |
|
Opening
Stock of Foodgrains |
Procurement
of Foodgrains |
Foodgrains
Off-take |
Closing |
Norms |
Month |
Rice |
Wheat |
Total |
Rice |
Wheat |
Total |
PDS |
OWS |
OMS |
Exports-
Domestic |
Total |
Stock |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
2004-05 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 20.7 | 24.0 | 16.8 | 40.8 | 29.7 | 10.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 41.5 | 18.0 |
| 2005-06 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 18.0 | 26.9 | 14.8 | 41.7 | 31.4 | 9.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 42.2 | 16.6 |
| 2006-07 | 13.7 | 2.0 | 16.6 | 26.7 | 9.2 | 35.9 | 31.6 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.8 | 17.8 |
| 2006-07# | 13.7 | 2.0 | 16.6 | 20.4 | 9.2 | 29.6 | 18.4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.5 |
| |
2007-08# | 13.2 | 4.6 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 11.1 | 30.1 | 19.3 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.4 |
| |
2006 |
April | 13.7 | 2.0 | 16.6 | 1.7 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 16.2 |
May | 12.8 | 9.0 | 22.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 22.3 |
| June | 12.0 | 9.3 | 22.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 20.5 |
| July | 11.1 | 8.2 | 20.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 17.1 | 26.9 |
August | 9.5 | 7.3 | 17.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 15.5 |
| September | 7.8 | 6.7 | 15.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 12.6 |
| October | 6.0 | 6.4 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 18.7 | 16.2 |
November | 12.5 | 6.0 | 18.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 17.8 |
| December | 12.1 | 5.6 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 17.5 |
| 2007
| January | 12.0 | 5.4 | 17.5 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 18.1 | 20.0 |
February | 12.6 | 5.4 | 18.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 19.1 |
| March | 14.0 | 5.1 | 19.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 17.8 |
| April | 13.2 | 4.6 | 17.8 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 25.1 | 16.2 |
May | 13.5 | 11.6 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 25.9 |
| June | 12.6 | 13.3 | 25.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 23.9 |
| July | 11.0 | 12.9 | 23.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 21.2 | 26.9 |
August | 9.2 | 12.0 | 21.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 18.0 |
| September | 6.9 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.6 |
| October | 5.5 | 10.1 | 15.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.7 | 16.2 |
November | 10.7 | 9.0 | 19.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| |
| |
| |
| | _ | _ | _ |
| |
| _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| December |
| |
| 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| |
| |
| |
| | _ | _ | _ |
| |
| _ | _ | _ | _ | _ | _ |
| January * |
| |
| 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| |
| |
| |
| PDS: Public
Distribution System. OWS: Other Welfare Schemes. OMS : Open Market Sales.
_ : Not Available.
# : Procurement up to January 9, and offtake up to October
31.
*: Procurement up to January 9, 2008.
Note : Closing stock figures
may differ from those arrived at by adding the opening stocks and procurement
and deducting offtake, as stocks include coarse grains also.
Source : Ministry
of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government of India. |
The manufacturing sector recorded a lower growth of 9.8 per cent during April-November
2007 as compared with 11.8 per cent during April-November 2006. Mining sector
recorded a growth of 4.9 per cent as compared with 4.2 per cent, while the electricity
sector moderated to 7.0 per cent as compared with 7.3 per cent during April-November
2006 (Table 6).
Table
6: Index of Industrial Production: Sectoral and Use-Based
Classification of Industries |
(Per
cent) |
Industry
Group |
Weight
in IIP |
Growth
Rate |
Weighted
Contribution# |
|
|
April-March |
April-November |
April-March |
April-November |
|
|
2006-07 |
2006-07 |
2007-08
P |
2006-07 |
2006-07 |
2007-08
P |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Sectoral |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mining |
10.5 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
3.6 |
Manufacturing |
79.4 |
12.5 |
11.8 |
9.8 |
91.1 |
91.2 |
89.9 |
Electricity |
10.2 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
7.0 |
5.5 |
6.0 |
6.6 |
Use-Based |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic Goods |
35.6 |
10.3 |
9.4 |
8.4 |
27.2 |
26.8 |
27.6 |
Capital Goods |
9.3 |
18.2 |
17.4 |
20.8 |
17.6 |
17.1 |
25.4 |
Intermediate Goods |
26.5 |
12.0 |
11.1 |
10.1 |
27.0 |
27.2 |
29.3 |
Consumer Goods (a+b) |
28.7 |
10.1 |
9.9 |
5.2 |
28.5 |
29.2 |
18.0 |
a) Consumer Durables |
5.4 |
9.2 |
12.4 |
-1.7 |
6.7 |
9.7 |
-1.6 |
b) Consumer Non-durables |
23.3 |
10.4 |
8.9 |
7.8 |
21.8 |
19.4 |
19.7 |
General |
100.0 |
11.5 |
10.9 |
9.2 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
P : Provisional.
# : Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding off.
Source: Central Statistical
Organisation. |
The moderation in manufacturing sector
growth was due to decelerated/ negative growth of eleven out of the seventeen
manufacturing industry groups accounting for 49.3 per cent weight in the IIP (Table
7). These, among others, included 'machinery and equipment', 'basic metal
and alloy industries', 'rubber, plastic, petroleum and coal products','cotton
textiles', 'non-metallic mineral products', and 'transport equipment and parts'.
'Metal products and parts' group recorded a decline due to the perfomance of tin
metal containers, welded link chains and razor blades. The 'leather and leather
and fur products' group, however, made a turnaround to register positive growth
during the period.
In terms of use-based classification, the capital and intermediate
goods sectors recorded double digit growth during April-November 2007 (see Table
6).
Table
7: Growth of Manufacturing Groups | (Per
cent) | Industry
Group | Weight
in IIP | Growth
Rate | Weighted
Contribution# |
| |
| April-March | April-November | April-March | April-November |
|
| | 2006-07 | 2006-07 | 2007-08P | 2006-07 | 2006-07 | 2007-08
P | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
1. | Food
products | 9.1 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 4.4 |
2. | Machinery
and equipment |
| |
| |
| |
|
| other than transport equipment | 9.6 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 18.2 | 20.0 | 20.3 |
3. | Chemicals
and chemical products |
| |
| |
| |
|
| except products of petroleum
and coal | 14.0 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 19.3 |
4. | Basic
metal and alloy Industries | 7.5 | 22.9 | 20.5 | 15.6 | 16.6 | 15.8 | 15.7 |
5. | Wood
and wood products, |
| |
| |
| |
|
| furniture and fixtures | 2.7 | 29.1 | 2.4 | 72.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 7.4 |
6. | Rubber,
plastic, petroleum |
| |
| |
| |
|
| and coal products | 5.7 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.9 |
7. | Non-metallic
mineral products | 4.4 | 12.9 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 5.6 |
8. | Beverages,
tobacco and related |
| |
| |
| |
|
| products | 2.4 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.1 |
9. | Cotton
textiles | 5.5 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
10. | Transport
equipment and parts | 4.0 | 15.0 | 16.3 | 2.7 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 2.0 |
11. | Textile
products | |
| |
| |
| |
| (including
wearing apparel) | 2.5 | 11.5 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
12. | Leather
and leather and fur products | 1.1 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 12.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.1 |
13. | Metal
products and parts |
| |
| |
| |
|
| (except machinery and equipment) | 2.8 | 11.4 | 7.0 | -4.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | -1.1 |
14. | Jute
and other vegetable |
| |
| |
| |
|
| fibre textiles (except
cotton) | 0.6 | -15.8 | 2.3 | 13.3 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
15. | Wool,
silk and man-made |
| |
| |
| |
|
| fibre textiles | 2.3 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
16. | Paper
and paper products |
| |
| |
| |
|
| and printing, publishing
and | |
| |
| |
| |
| allied
activities | 2.7 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
17. | Other
manufacturing industries | 2.6 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 19.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 7.2 |
| Manufacturing
- Total | 79.4 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
P : Provisional.
# : Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding off.
Source: Central Statistical
Organisation. | The sustained high growth in the capital
goods sector was driven by increased capital expenditure undertaken by manufacturing
firms to augment their production capacities. Growth in the intermediate goods
sector was driven by increased production of particle board, plywood commercial,
PVC pipes and tubes and metalise bopp films. Growth of the consumer goods sector
decelerated to 5.2 per cent during April-November 2007 from 9.9 per cent during
April-November 2006 _ largely reflecting the sharp decline in the consumer
durables segment. The negative growth in the consumer durables was on account
of decline in production of telephone instruments, T.V. receiver, motorcycles,
etc. The growth of the basic goods sector moderated to 8.4 per cent during
April-November 2007 from 9.4 per cent during April-November 2006 due to decelerated
growth in the cement sector and some aluminium and steel products.
Infrastructure
During April-November 2007, the infrastructure
sector recorded a lower growth of 6.0 per cent than a year ago (8.9 per cent)
reflecting slow down in all the sectors (Chart 3).
High base, decline in refinery output in some public sector refineries and lower
capacity utilisation led to the moderation in growth of petroleum refinery products.
A sharp deceleration in crude oil production was attributable to decline in production
in some of the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited wells.
Lower growth in the coal sector was mainly on account of decline in production
in some of the subsidiaries of Coal India Limited. Capacity constraints faced
by major steel producers combined with high base slowed down the growth of the
steel sector. High base coupled with capacity constraints have led to moderation
in cement sector. 
Table
8 : Growth in Services Sectors | (Contribution
to real GDP growth; percentage points) |
Year/Quarter |
Construction |
Trade,
Hotels, |
Financing,
Insurance, |
Community,
Social |
Total |
|
|
Transport
and Communication |
Real
Estate and Business Services |
and
Personal Services |
Services |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
2000-01 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 3.2 |
2001-02 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.8 |
2002-03 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 4.2 |
2003-04 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 5.2 |
2004-05 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5.9 |
2005-06 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.2 |
2006-07 | 0.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.7 |
2006-07: Q1 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 7.0 |
2006-07: Q2 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 7.4 |
2006-07: Q3 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6.3 |
2006-07: Q4 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6.2 |
2007-08: Q1 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6.5 |
2007-08: Q2 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 6.6 |
Services Sector
During the first half of
2007-08, the services sector continued to record double digit growth of 10.5 per
cent, though lower than that of 11.6 per cent growth during the corresponding
period of the previous year. The services sector continued to be the main driver
of growth of the economy, contributing 72.1 per cent to real GDP growth. Services
sector activity was led by the sub-sector 'trade, hotel, transport and communication'
which contributed nearly 47.5 per cent to growth in services sector during the
first half of 2007-08 (Table 8). The 'construction'
sub-sector grew by 11.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2007-08, thereby
recording double digit growth for eighteen consecutive quarters.
Leading
indicators of service sector activity for April-October 2007 show that growth
rates in revenue earning freight traffic of the railways, commercial vehicles
production, new cell phone connections, passengers handled by civil aviation at
domestic terminals, cement and steel moderated albeit over a high base (Table
9).
Aggregate Demand
Growth of the Indian economy
continued to be driven by domestic demand, particularly gross fixed capital formation
(GFCF). While private final consumption demand contributed 36.3 per cent to the
incremental growth in real GDP during July-September 2007 (34.9 per cent during
July-September 2006), the contribution of real GFCF was 49.4 per cent (34.6 per
cent a year ago). The growth rate of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE)
was estimated at 5.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2007-08 as compared with
6.3 per cent in the
Table
9: Indicators of Service Sector Activity | (Growth
rates in per cent) | Sub-sector | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | April-November |
|
| | 2006 | 2007 |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Tourist arrivals | 12.4 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 11.9 |
Commercial vehicles production
# | 10.6 | 33.0 | 29.5
* | 5.3 * |
Railway revenue earning freight
traffic | 10.7 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.0 |
New cell phone connections | 89.4 | 85.4 | 121.0 | 44.6 |
Cargo handled at major ports | 10.4 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 13.1 |
Civil aviation |
| |
| |
a) Export cargo handled | 7.3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 0.2 |
b) Import cargo handled | 15.8 | 19.4 | 19.8 | 22.3 |
c) Passengers handled at international
terminals | 12.8 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 13.4 |
d) Passengers handled at domestic
terminals | 27.1 | 34.0 | 37.4 | 25.9 |
Cement * * | 10.7 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 7.6 |
Steel * * | 10.8 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 5.9 |
Aggregate deposits | 18.1 | 23.7 | 13.2
@ | 14.6 @ |
Non-food credit | 31.8 | 28.4 | 17.5
@ | 11.8 @ |
* : April-October.
@: Up to January 4, 2008.
# : Leading indicator for transportation.
*
* : Leading indicators for construction.
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Ministry
of Commerce and Industry, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation,
Reserve Bank of India and Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. |
corresponding quarter of 2006-07. The growth rate of real GFCF accelerated
to 15.2 per cent from 13.3 per cent in the corresponding period of 2006-07 (Table
10). The expenditure composition of real GDP indicates a decline in the share
of real PFCE to 55.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2007-08 from 56.9 per cent
in the corresponding period of 2006-07. On the other hand, share of real GFCF,
as per cent to GDP, increased to 30.3 per cent from 28.6 per cent.
Table
10: Disposition of National Income (At 1999-2000 prices) |
(Growth
rates in per cent) | Item | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
| QE | RE | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | April-September |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
1. Total Final
Consumption Expenditure | 7.2 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| a)Private
Final Consumption |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| Expenditure
(PFCE) | 6.7 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 5.6 |
| b)Government
Final Consumption |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| Expenditure | 9.8 | 9.0 | 47.6 | -9.7 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 15.8 | 11.1 |
2. Gross Fixed
Capital Formation (GFCF) | 15.3 | 14.6 | 15.8 | 13.3 | 15.5 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
3. Change in Stocks | 69.0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 8.5 |
4. Valuables | 0.4 | 38.0 | 38.4 | 47.1 | 29.8 | 37.8 | 10.5 | 19.6 | 42.5 | 15.0 |
5. Exports | 5.9 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 18.9 | -1.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 14.4 | 5.0 |
6. Imports | 10.3 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 18.7 | 4.8 | 11.3 | 16.1 | -0.5 | 15.1 | 7.9 |
Memo: |
| |
| |
| |
| |
| |
Real GDP at market
prices | 9.2 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
QE: Quick Estimates.
RE: Revised Estimates.
Source : Central Statistical Organisation. |
Corporate Performance
The performance of non-government
non-financial companies slowed somewhat in the two quarters of 2007-08 (Table
11). Sales during the second quarter of 2007-08 grew by 16.0 per cent as compared
with 29.2 per cent in second quarter of 2006-07. The growth in net profits
moderated sharply to 22.7 per cent from 49.4 per cent a year ago. The growth in
gross profits at 22.1 per cent during the second quarter of 2007-08 was the lowest
in the last six quarters.
Business Expectation Survey
Despite continued strength in domestic fundamentals, business confidence
indices compiled by various agencies indicate some softening of sentiment against
the backdrop of elevated international crude oil prices and global uncertainties
(Table 12).
According to the latest business
confidence survey conducted by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and
Industry (FICCI) in December 2007, the overall business confidence index during
October 2007-March 2008 declined both over the previous quarter and over a year
ago, reflecting mainly concerns
Table
11: Corporate Financial Performance | (Growth
rates in per cent) | Item | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 |
|
| | April-September | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
Sales | 16.3 | 26.2 | 27.4 | 17.4 | 25.6 | 29.2 | 30.3 | 22.5 | 19.2 | 16.0 |
Total Expenditure | 16.7 | 23.5 | 25.6 | 16.9 | 24.6 | 26.6 | 26.9 | 19.5 | 19.3 | 15.5 |
Depreciation | 8.1 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 16.4 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 18.1 | 15.8 |
Gross Profits | 24.6 | 41.5 | 39.8 | 28.1 | 33.9 | 45.9 | 51.8 | 39.2 | 28.6 | 22.1 |
Interest Payments | -2.0 | 17.4 | 20.8 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 18.0 | 11.9 | 32.3 | 4.4 | 18.4 |
Profits After Tax | 32.8 | 45.2 | 41.6 | 31.1 | 34.7 | 49.4 | 59.5 | 39.6 | 33.9 | 22.7 |
Select
Ratios | (Per
cent) | Gross Profits
to Sales | 12.2 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 16.7 | 16.6 |
Profits After Tax to Sales | 8.2 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 11.5 |
Interest to Sales | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Interest to Gross Profits | 18.1 | 13.3 | 14.1 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 12.6 |
Interest Coverage(Times) | 5.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
Memo: | (Amount
in Rs. crore) | No.
of Companies | 2,730 | 2,388 | 2,053 | 2,082 | 2,228 | 2,263 | 2,258 | 2,356 | 2,342 | 2,228 |
Sales | 7,35,216 | 10,41,894 | 4,24,565 | 5,36,358 | 2,34,610 | 2,51,125 | 2,60,064 | 2,94,223 | 2,80,814 | 2,97,110 |
Expenditure | 6,43,826 | 8,72,168 | 3,53,505 | 4,45,086 | 1,95,556 | 2,09,437 | 2,16,053 | 2,48,740 | 2,34,596 | 2,47,425 |
Depreciation Provision | 28,961 | 37,095 | 15,710 | 19,347 | 8,449 | 8,892 | 9,172 | 10,338 | 10,173 | 10,576 |
Gross Profits | 90,179 | 1,62,017 | 66,265 | 90,472 | 36,567 | 40,041 | 41,169 | 45,108 | 46,925 | 49,228 |
Interest Payments | 16,302 | 21,500 | 9,358 | 10,760 | 5,083 | 5,121 | 5,162 | 5,862 | 5,504 | 6,194 |
Profits After Tax | 60,236 | 1,11,107 | 44,927 | 62,846 | 24,845 | 27,710 | 28,698 | 31,251 | 32,699 | 34,266 |
Notes:
1.
Data for 2005-06 are based on audited balance sheet, while those for 2006-07 and
2007-08 are based on abridged financial results of the select non-Government non-financial
public limited companies.
2. Growth rates are per cent changes in the level
for the period under reference over the corresponding period of the previous year
for common set of companies.
3. The quarterly data may not add up to annual
data due to differences in the number and composition of companies covered in
each period. |
Table
12: Business Expectations Surveys | (Per
cent) |
Agency |
Business
Expectations |
Growth
over a year ago |
Growth
over |
|
Period |
Index |
|
previous
round |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
NCAER | October
2007-March 2008 | Business
Confidence Index | -4.3 | 5.8 |
FICCI | October
2007-March 2008 | Business
Confidence Index | -15.1 | -10.5 |
RBI | January-March
2008 | Business Expectation
Index | -6.2 | -4.7 |
Dun & Bradstreet | January-March
2008 | Business Optimism Index | -13.2 | -12.6 |
over rupee appreciation, hardening of interest rates, rising cost of
raw materials, particularly oil, and global uncertainties. Fifty-three per cent
of the respondents who participated in the survey indicated the current overall
economic conditions to be 'moderately to substantially better' than in the preceding
six months as against 70 per cent reported in the last survey.
According
to the survey by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) conducted
in October 2007, the overall business confidence index (BCI) for the next six
months declined on a year-on-year basis, but improved over the previous round
of the survey. A component-wise analysis shows that while expectation about present
capacity utilisation (being close to or above optimal level) registered a marginal
decline, the other three major components, viz., overall economic conditions,
investment climate, financial position of the firms recorded an improvement over
the previous round. Amongst the various industry sectors, the maximum gain in
business confidence was noticed in the capital goods and services sectors, while
the minimum gain was expected in the consumer non-durable sector.
According
to the Reserve Bank's latest Industrial Outlook Survey, the business expectations
indices based on assessment for October-December 2007 and on expectations for
January-March 2008 declined by 2.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively, over
the previous quarters.
The decline in expectations index for January-March
2008 emanated from lower net responses for major parameters of the survey such
as the overall business situation, availability of finance, production, order
books, capacity utilisation, employment, exports and profit margins over the previous
quarter (Table 13 and Chart
4).
Purchasing Managers’ Index
The ABN-AMRO
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which provides the indicators related to the
performance of the manufacturing sector, however, rose by 1.6 per cent in December
2007 over the preceding month, signalling a marked improvement in the health of
the Indian manufacturing sector. The rise in the PMI was underpinned by sharp
increases in new business volumes and a marked expansion of production. Employment
levels and stocks of purchases also continued to rise. The seasonally adjusted
Output Index increased by 0.6 per cent in
Table
13: Reserve Bank's Survey - Net Response on 'A Quarter Ahead' |
Expectations
About the Industrial Performance | (Per
cent) |
Parameter |
Response |
Oct- |
Jan- |
Apr- |
July- |
Oct- |
Jan- |
|
|
|
Dec. |
March |
June |
Sept |
Dec. |
Mar |
|
|
|
2006 |
2007 |
2007 |
2007 |
2007 |
2008 |
1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
1. | Overall
business situation | Better | 51.8 | 53.7 | 51.7 | 49.5 | 50.2 | 47.7 |
|
| | (41.2) | (40.7) | (43.3) | (41.2) | (42.1) | (42.9) |
2. | Financial
situation | Better | 41.9 | 44.5 | 43.8 | 41.3 | 40.1 | 40.3 |
|
| | (50.6) | (
49.9) | (49.8) | (49.8) | (51.3) | (50.3) |
3. | Working
capital finance requirement | Increase | 35.4 | 36.2 | 35.3 | 34.5 | 32.2 | 34.7 |
|
| | (58.3) | (59.2) | (59.2) | (59.2) | (62.6) | (60.3) |
4. | Availability
of finance | Improve | 33.4 | 36.2 | 35.2 | 32.1 | 33.8 | 31.1 |
|
| | (57.8) | (56.6) | (57.2) | (58.6) | (58.8) | (59.5) |
5. | Production | Increase | 49.7 | 50.7 | 47.8 | 46.6 | 49.0 | 43.9 |
|
| | (39.6) | (40.1) | (41.6) | (41.1) | (40.9) | (42.3) |
6. | Order
books | Increase | 46.3 | 47.3 | 45.7 | 43.6 | 44.1 | 37.1 |
|
| | (42.6) | (43.1) | (45.4) | (46.1) | (46.0) | (48.6) |
7. | Pending
orders, if applicable | Below
normal | -2.1 | -2.7 | -2.2 | 2.2 | -3.5 | 0.4 |
|
| | (81.7) | (82.9) | (82.8) | (82.6) | (82.4) | (80.2) |
8. | Cost
of raw material | Decrease | -49.2 | -41.7 | -42.1 | 46.0 | -42.4 | -44.1 |
|
| | (46.4) | (51.0) | (52.0) | (49.7) | (51.0) | (49.2) |
9. | Inventory
of raw material | Below average | -6.1 | -7.1 | -7.3 | 5.4 | -6.3 | -7.3 |
|
| | (83.5) | (83.8) | (85.0) | (85.0) | (85.0) | (84.8) |
10. | Inventory
of finished goods | Below average | -4.9 | -5.2 | -4.4 | 2.7 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
|
| | (83.5) | (84.5) | (85.2) | (87.1) | (86.4) | (86.1) |
11. | Capacity
utilisation (Main product) | Increase | 33.2 | 33.3 | 29.4 | 27.0 | 28.4 | 24.2 |
|
| | (56.6) | (57.7) | (60.4) | (61.4) | (61.5) | (62.3) |
12. | Level
of capacity utilisation | Above
normal | 10.9 | 12.8 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 6.4 |
| (Compared
to the average in | | (76.6) | (76.4) | (77.1) | (76.5) | (77.2) | (78.3) |
| the
preceding four quarters) |
| |
| |
| |
| 13. | Assessment
of the production capacity | More
than | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| (With
regard to expected demand | adequate | (79.7) | (81.8) | (82.2) | (82.2) | (83.0) | (83.8) |
| in
the next six months) | |
| |
| |
| |
14. | Employment
in the company | Increase | 17.9 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 14.6 |
|
| | (73.3) | (73.7) | (73.3) | (73.5) | (74.1) | (75.6) |
15. | Exports,
if applicable | Increase | 34.2 | 32.6 | 33.4 | 32.6 | 31.4 | 24.3 |
|
| | (57.2) | (57.3) | (56.8) | (55.6) | (55.9) | (58.3) |
16. | Imports,
if any | Increase | 23.4 | 20.8 | 21.6 | 23.7 | 20.8 | 20.1 |
|
| | (68.1) | (68) | (68.4) | (68.2) | (68.6) | (70.5) |
17. | Selling
prices are expected to | Increase | 16.8 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 14.9 |
|
| | (68.0) | (69.2) | (68.9) | (67.1) | (68.5) | (67.1) |
18. | If
increase expected in selling prices | Increase
at | 14.5 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 13.3 |
|
| lower rate | (67.0) | (68.1) | (66.7) | (65.0) | (58.9) | (66.7) |
19. | Profit
margin | Increase | 9.2 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 |
|
| | (60.6) | (61.7) | (62.5) | (62.6) | (59.6) | (60.0) |
Notes:
1.
'Net response' is measured as the percentage share differential between the companies
reporting 'optimistic' (positive) and 'pessimistic' (negative) responses; responses
indicating status quo (no change) are not reckoned. Higher 'net response' indicates
higher level of confidence and vice versa.
2. Figures in parentheses are the
percentages of respondents with 'no change over the preceding quarter' as responses. |
December 2007 over the preceding month. Reports from the survey panel
suggested favourable market conditions, leading to a sharp rise in volumes of
incoming new business, and inventory build up. 
Forecasts by various agencies for real GDP growth in 2007-08 are set out
in Table 14.
Table : 14 : Projections of Real GDP for India by various Agencies - 2007-08 |
(per cent) |
Agency |
Latest Projection |
Earlier Projection |
|
Overall
Growth |
Agriculture |
Industry |
Services |
Month of
Projection |
Overall
Growth |
Month |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
ASSOCHAM |
9.0 |
3.5 |
10.0 |
10.5 |
December 2007 |
8.5-8.7 |
August 2007 |
JP Morgan |
8.6 |
2.6 |
9.8 |
10.0 |
September 2007 |
8.0 |
March 2007 |
Merrill Lynch |
8.8 |
4.0 |
9.5 |
10.0 |
September 2007 |
8.5 |
March 2007 |
ICRA |
9.0 |
- |
- |
- |
September 2007 |
8.5 |
April 2007 |
Citigroup |
9.3 |
3.0 |
10.0 |
11.0 |
September 2007 |
9.3 |
April 2007 |
CRISIL |
8.6 |
3.4 |
9.2 |
10.0 |
December 2007 |
7.9-8.4 |
March/ June 2007 |
Indicus Analytics |
8.4 |
2.7 |
8.5 |
10.1 |
October 2007 |
8.4 |
March 2007 |
CMIE |
9.1 |
3.9 |
9.4 |
10.7 |
January 2008 |
9.1 |
December 2007 |
NCAER |
8.9 |
3.8 |
9.0 |
10.6 |
October 2007 |
8.5 |
August 2007 |
Economic Advisory |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Council |
8.9 |
3.6 |
9.7 |
10.3 |
January 2008 |
9.0 |
July 2007 |
UNCTAD |
8.5 |
- |
- |
- |
September 2007 |
- |
- |
IMF |
8.9* |
- |
- |
- |
October 2007 |
9.0 * |
July 2007 |
ADB |
8.5 |
- |
- |
- |
September 2007 |
8.0 |
March 2007 |
RBI |
Around 8.5 |
- |
- |
- |
October 2007 |
Around 8.5 |
July 2007 |
- : Not Available.
* : Calendar year. |
|
