It gives me great pleasure to be here at Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. While the winter outside is cold, the warmth of coming together of eminent leaders and experts from diverse fields more than compensates for it. These meetings assume greater relevance when fundamental changes are taking place in a global scale that would potentially shape our common destiny. I thank the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) for giving me this opportunity to speak at this event. Recent information on the global macroeconomic front has been somewhat reassuring with inflation gradually descending closer to the target, even as growth has held up better than expected. The odds of a soft landing have increased and this has enthused the financial markets. Financial conditions have eased, and markets have scaled new highs, raising concerns that they might be running ahead of themselves. At this critical juncture, certain hard facts have to be kept in mind, namely, global growth is slowing down; geopolitical situation continues to be fragile with new flash points and fear of supply chain disruptions; geo-economic fragmentation remains unabated undermining global trade; and the daunting climate related challenges are holding their ground.

Good afternoon and Namaskar. Thank you Alfred for those insightful opening remarks. I must mention that Alfred led the IMF’s Article IV India mission for the 2021 consultations. The sheer weight of that experience and deep understanding of Indian conditions is reflected in his views. I would also like to commend Alfred and his co-editors for a comprehensive evaluation of India’s financial system and very valuable recommendations on the way forward in a recent book evocatively titled “India’s Financial System: Building the Foundation for Strong and Sustainable Growth”.

I am glad to see Mr Thomas Helbling from the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF in this session, and I look forward to hearing from him.

I thank our host and SEACEN EXCO Chair, the National Bank of Cambodia, the SEACEN Centre and Dr. Mangal Goswami, Executive Director, and the BIS for inviting me to speak in this distinguished forum. In particular, I am grateful to Deputy Governor Sum Sannisith for so graciously writing to me to participate in this 16th SEACEN-BIS High Level Seminar.

The Backdrop

It is widely believed that during the next two decades – if not for longer – the centre of gravity of the global economy will shift eastwards to Asia. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific indicates that this region will contribute about two-thirds of global growth in 2023 itself. India will account for a sixth of world output growth in 2023 and 2024. In terms of market exchange rates, India is the fifth largest economy of the world and the third largest economy on the basis of purchasing power parity. Our assessment is that by 2027, India will be a US$ 5 trillion economy and the third largest in the world even by market exchange rates. A key driver in this transformation is likely to be the window of a demographic dividend that opened up in 2018 and will probably last till the 2040s, going by fertility and mortality rates. Already, we are the most populous country in the world at 1.4 billion and the youngest at an average age of 28 years. The other major catalyst of India’s progress will be the pace and quality of financial sector development, which is the theme of my address today. It is anchored by a few slides.