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Bank Lending Survey for Q1:2025-26

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 32nd round of its quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS)1,which captures qualitative assessment and expectations of major scheduled commercial banks on credit parameters (viz., loan demand as well as terms and conditions of loans) for major economic sectors2.The latest round of the survey, which was conducted during Q1:2025-26, collected senior loan officers’ assessment of credit parameters for Q1:2025-26 and their expectations for Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2025-26.

Highlights: 

 

A. Assessment for Q1:2025-26

  • Bankers’ assessment on loan demand recorded a seasonal moderation across major sectors during Q1:2025-26 (Chart 1 and Table 1).
  • Majority of the responding banks assessed continuation of easy terms and conditions for loans (Table 2).

B. Expectations for Q2:2025-26

  • Bankers’ outlook on loan demand improved for Q2:2025-26, they expect more loan demand particularly from agriculture, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and retail/personal loan segments (Table 1).
  • Bankers expect some easing of loan terms and conditions, especially for the manufacturing and services sectors (Table 2).

C. Expectations for Q3:2025-26 and Q4:2025-26

  • Across major sectors, bankers’ sentiments on loan demand remained upbeat till Q4:2025-26 (Table 3).
  • The current easy loan terms and conditions are expected to continue in the second half of 2025-26.
Chart_1

Table 1: Sector-wise Loan Demand - Net Response3

        (per cent)

Sector

Assessment Period

Expectations Period

Q4:2024-25*

Q1:2025-26

Q1:2025-26*

Q2:2025-26

All Sectors

42.6

37.5

37.0

41.1

Agriculture

41.7

30.0

25.0

36.7

Mining and Quarrying

10.0

12.1

6.7

8.6

Manufacturing

42.9

36.2

41.1

43.1

Infrastructure

36.7

22.4

35.0

25.9

Services

41.1

33.9

41.1

33.9

Retail/Personal

52.0

27.8

38.0

42.6

 * Based on the previous round’s response.
 

Table 2: Sector-wise Loan Terms and Conditions - Net Response

     (per cent)

Sector

Assessment Period

Expectations Period

Q4:2024-25*

Q1:2025-26

Q1:2025-26*

Q2:2025-26

All Sectors

16.1

12.5

17.9

16.1

Agriculture

15.0

11.7

20.0

15.0

Mining and Quarrying

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

Manufacturing

19.0

17.9

17.2

21.4

Infrastructure

10.0

10.0

13.3

13.3

Services

16.7

16.1

18.5

23.2

Retail/Personal

22.9

22.9

22.9

22.0

 * Based on the previous round’s response.
 

Table 3: Sector-wise Expectations for Extended Period - Net Response

(per cent)

Sector

Loan Demand

Loan Terms and Conditions

Q3:2025-26

Q4:2025-26

Q3:2025-26

Q4:2025-26

All Sectors

41.1

48.1

19.6

23.2

Agriculture

43.3

45.0

16.7

20.0

Mining and Quarrying

15.5

15.5

3.4

3.4

Manufacturing

43.3

43.3

21.7

21.7

Infrastructure

31.7

38.3

16.7

15.0

Services

39.3

42.9

17.9

21.4

Retail/Personal

38.3

33.3

21.7

20.0

 

Note:Please see the attached excel file for detailed time series data.


1The results of 31st round of the BLS with reference period as January-March 2025 were released on the RBI website on April 09,2025. The survey results reflect the views of the respondents, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

2The survey questionnaire is canvassed among major 30 SCBs, which together account for over 90 per cent of credit by SCBs in India.

3Net Response (NR) is computed as the difference of percentage of banks reporting increase/optimism and those reporting decrease/pessimism in respective parameter. The weights of +1.0, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1.0 are assigned for computing NR from aggregate per cent responses on 5-point scale, i.e., substantial increase/ considerable easing, moderate increase/ somewhat easing, no change, moderate decrease/ somewhat tightening, substantial decrease/ considerable tightening for loan demand/loan terms and conditions parameters respectively. NR ranges between -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. Increase in loan demand is considered optimism (Table 1), while for loan terms and conditions, a positive value of net response indicates easy terms and conditions (Table 2).  

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