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Consumer Confidence Survey: March 2013 (Round 12)

The Consumer Confidence Survey of Households for the January - March 2013 quarter (12th round), provides an assessment of the consumer sentiments of 5,339 urban households across 6 cities viz., Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi, based on their perceptions of the general economic conditions and their own financial situation. The assessments are analysed in two parts, viz., current situation as compared with a year ago and expectations for a year ahead. The survey results are those of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India.

Highlights:

  1. The negative sentiments with respect to the current and future economic conditions have been rising over the last four quarters. The outlook has been comparatively better than the perception on current economic conditions.

  2. The net response for current household circumstances has been consistently declining over the last four rounds. The positive perceptions on future household circumstances are marginally lower than that of the last round.

  3. Net responses on current and future income have decreased as compared with the last round. Around one third respondents reported that their income has remained at the same level as that of last year or would remain the same next year also.

  4. There has been a marginal decline in the proportion of respondents reporting increase in current spending. On the other hand marginal increase has been observed in the proportion of respondents reporting increase in future spending.

  5. About one third of the respondents reported no change in the employment scenario. However, the perception on future employment scenario remains optimistic.

  6. Nearly two per cent of respondents reported moderation in the prices.Net response on price perceptions has improved in this round as compared to the earlier three rounds.

  7. More than 89 per cent of the respondents (out of those who perceived increase in price levels) felt that inflation rate also increased as compared to last year. This proportion was relatively lower in respect of one year ahead inflation perception.

  8. From the borrowers’ point of view, the proportion of respondents perceiving interest rate as high has eased. On the other hand, 75 per cent of respondents felt that the interest rates were low from depositors’ perspective.

  9. Current Situation Index (CSI), declined sharply during the current quarter and Future Expectations Index (FEI) has reached the threshold level of 100.

Table 1: Opinion on Economic Conditions

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Improve

49.6

37.5

37.5

28.1

55.5

44.4

39.6

32.8

Remain Same

13.1

23.8

21.3

19.3

20.9

27.7

28.5

27.6

Worsen

37.3

38.7

41.2

52.7

23.6

27.8

31.9

39.5

Net Response

12.2

-1.2

-3.8

-24.6

31.9

16.6

7.6

-6.7


Table 2: Perceptions on Household circumstances

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Better off

57.1

45.0

44.8

40.3

44.1

46.0

43.4

Difficult to say / Remain the same

7.8

26.2

25.1

29.0

34.7

31.1

34.9

Worse off

35.1

28.8

30.0

30.7

21.3

22.9

21.7

Net Response

22.0

16.2

14.8

9.6

22.8

23.1

21.6


Table 3: Major Factors influencing views on Household Circumstances

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Salary and business income

85.2

81.0

76.1

78.5

83.1

73.8

81.1

Interest and dividend income

32.1

26.2

21.0

25.2

23.2

23.1

20.1

Income from sales of real estate

20.7

22.5

16.9

23.7

21.1

18.9

16.0

Prices

48.1

50.7

52.6

59.6

42.5

50.6

55.8

Change in value of assets

19.0

21.9

18.1

21.4

19.1

20.4

19.8

Changes in the number of dependent in the family

23.8

24.4

18.6

14.6

21.4

17.1

14.3

Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of percentage relating to factors may be more than 100.


Table 4: Perceptions on Income

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Increase

59.5

47.8

52.4

47.5

65.0

51.9

54.5

51.6

Remain same

15.9

36.1

32.3

35.3

27.5

37.8

35.9

35.9

Decrease

24.5

16.1

15.3

17.2

7.5

10.3

9.6

12.5

Net Response

35.0

31.7

37.1

30.3

57.4

41.5

44.9

39.0


Table 5: Perceptions on Spending

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Increase

74.7

83.6

78.5

77.3

61.0

57.9

51.5

52.5

Remain same

5.8

13.0

17.0

18.3

25.0

22.4

30.2

29.0

Decrease

19.4

3.4

4.5

4.4

14.0

19.7

18.2

18.5

Net Response

55.3

80.3

74.1

72.9

47.0

38.2

33.3

34.0


Table 6: Major Factors influencing Changes in Spending

(Percentage responses)

Income

Future Income

Non-financial assets

Financial assets

Expenditure for real estate

Expenditure on consumer durables

No. of dependents

Cost of consumer goods

Cost of services

Jun-12

88.6

60.2

20.6

12.7

30.5

25.3

26.0

67.7

51.2

Sep-12

44.0

31.0

19.8

17.6

20.7

32.6

29.9

82.3

68.6

Dec-12

46.2

24.3

17.4

15.3

23.7

40.6

36.8

76.3

66.7

Mar-13

47.4

29.4

20.0

18.8

27.0

47.3

27.0

79.3

72.1

Note: As respondents may report multiple factors, total of percentage relating to factors may be more than 100.


Table 7: Perceptions on Major Expenditure Outlays

(Percentage responses)

Dec-12

Mar-13

Motor Vehicle

House

Durable goods

Motor Vehicle

House

Durable goods

Gold

Yes

19.7

12.7

20.0

15.9

14.2

15.6

21.7

Can’t Say

14.4

20.5

18.6

18.5

17.0

17.3

16.9

No

65.9

66.9

61.4

65.6

68.8

67.1

61.4


Table 8: Perceptions on Price level

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Increase

91.9

96.3

95.0

92.2

90.8

94.9

93.0

91.5

No Change

7.2

3.4

4.5

5.9

8.4

3.6

5.8

6.7

Decrease

0.9

0.3

0.5

2.0

0.8

1.6

1.1

1.8

Net Response

-91.0

-96.0

-94.4

-90.2

-90.1

-93.3

-91.9

-89.8

Note: Perceptions of increase in prices is considered to be negative sentiments and decrease in prices is considered to be positive sentiments. The net responses are therefore, negative.


Table 9: Perception on Rate of Price Increase

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

More

90.0

93.0

89.3

89.9

86.3

86.4

No Change

9.1

6.2

10.4

8.2

12.5

12.8

Less

0.9

0.8

0.4

1.9

1.2

0.7

Net Response

-89.1

-92.2

-88.9

-88.0

-85.1

-85.7


Table 10: Current Interest Levels from Borrowers’ and Depositors’ Point of View

(Percentage responses)

Borrower

Depositor

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Low

6.2

7.8

7.8

6.7

77.2

66.2

74.7

69.9

Appropriate

18.9

24.5

19.2

21.7

20.4

25.4

20.7

26.9

High

74.8

67.7

73.1

71.5

2.3

8.3

4.6

3.2


Table 11: Current & Future perceptions on Employment

(Percentage responses)

Current

Future

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Improve

42.8

37.2

39.4

50.8

43.6

42.2

47.5

Remain same

25.5

39.4

33.3

28.3

33.3

32.0

30.1

Worsen

31.7

23.3

27.3

20.9

23.1

25.8

22.3

Net Response

11.1

13.9

12.1

30.0

20.5

16.3

25.2


Table 12: Current and Future Expectations Index

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Current Situation Index

106.7

106.2

105.5

99.6

Future Expectation Index

115.2

104.7

102.0

100.4


1* Prepared in the Department of Statistics and Information Management, New Delhi. The previous round of survey data was released on January 28, 2013 with Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: Third Quarter Review 2012-13 on the RBI Website. The survey schedule and methodology for constructing the confidence index were published in the December 2011 issue of the RBI Bulletin.

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