Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

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Published on August 06, 2025

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Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of July 2025 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)¹ ². The survey was conducted during July 1-12, 2025, in 19 major cities, with 5,197 valid responses.

Highlights:

Households’ median perception of current inflation declined by 50 basis points (bps) to 7.2 per cent, vis-à-vis May 2025 round; their inflation expectations for the next three months and one year moderated by 60 bps and 50 bps respectively [Charts 1a and 1b; Table 3].
For both short term and one year ahead, the shares of respondents anticipating rise in general prices and inflation has come down [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].
Price and inflationary pressures eased across major product groups including food products, non-food items and expenses related to housing [Tables 1(a) and 1(b)].

Note: Please see the excel file for time series data.³

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Jul-24		Jan-24		Mar-24		May-25		Jul-25
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	82.3	0.77	81.6	0.79	80.7	0.87	80.5	0.86	79.5	1.22
Price increase more than current rate	60.5	1.13	57.9	1.11	54.7	1.15	54.4	1.24	52.7	1.58
Price increase similar to current rate	17.3	0.86	19.2	0.86	20.8	0.86	22	0.92	24	1.42
Price increase less than current rate	4.5	0.48	4.4	0.44	5.2	0.47	4.1	0.42	2.8	0.39
No changes in prices	14.6	0.71	16.5	0.76	17.3	0.84	17.5	0.83	18.4	1.18
Decline in prices	3.1	0.37	2	0.29	2	0.27	2	0.3	2.1	0.35
Food Product
Prices will increase	84.2	0.7	83.2	0.77	83.1	0.77	82.8	0.79	80	1.36
Price increase more than current rate	62.1	1.03	59.3	1.03	57.8	1.09	55.8	1.11	53.1	1.6
Price increase similar to current rate	16	0.75	17.3	0.78	18.3	0.79	17.7	0.8	23.8	1.37
Price increase less than current rate	6.1	0.52	6.7	0.53	7	0.54	9.3	0.62	3.1	0.41
No changes in prices	10.2	0.57	11.5	0.66	12.2	0.69	11.9	0.66	15.9	1.3
Decline in prices	5.6	0.47	5.3	0.45	4.7	0.4	5.4	0.45	4.1	0.47
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	77	0.81	75.2	0.86	75.6	0.89	75.3	0.92	74.3	1.33
Price increase more than current rate	54.5	1.1	52.5	1.04	53.3	1.07	51.5	1.14	50.6	1.45
Price increase similar to current rate	16.2	0.79	16.8	0.74	15.3	0.74	17.5	0.75	20.2	1.23
Price increase less than current rate	6.2	0.52	6	0.47	7	0.54	6.2	0.5	3.5	0.42
No changes in prices	17.6	0.74	20.4	0.79	20.2	0.82	20.2	0.83	21.8	1.27
Decline in prices	5.4	0.48	4.4	0.4	4.2	0.39	4.6	0.4	3.9	0.46
Household Durables
Prices will increase	68.2	0.97	67	0.99	66.7	0.98	66.3	1.01	67.4	1.14
Price increase more than current rate	49.6	1.09	46.9	1.09	45.2	1.11	45.5	1.12	46.6	1.28
Price increase similar to current rate	13.9	0.73	14.7	0.71	15.8	0.74	15.3	0.69	17.5	0.98
Price increase less than current rate	4.7	0.44	5.4	0.45	5.8	0.51	5.5	0.46	3.2	0.38
No changes in prices	23.4	0.88	25.3	0.92	24.6	0.9	26.6	0.94	25.9	1.05
Decline in prices	8.4	0.58	7.8	0.5	8.6	0.52	7.1	0.5	6.7	0.57
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	78.6	0.84	78.5	0.91	78	0.88	78.3	0.93	77.7	1.1
Price increase more than current rate	59.6	1.07	58	1.1	56.5	1.09	57.1	1.16	55.5	1.32
Price increase similar to current rate	14.8	0.78	15.6	0.75	16	0.73	16.7	0.75	19.7	1.11
Price increase less than current rate	4.1	0.45	4.9	0.44	5.4	0.48	4.4	0.41	2.5	0.38
No changes in prices	18.2	0.78	18.3	0.87	19.1	0.84	19.1	0.88	19.1	1.04
Decline in prices	3.2	0.37	3.2	0.36	2.9	0.34	2.6	0.31	3.2	0.41
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	71	0.95	68.4	0.99	69.3	0.98	69.9	0.97	71.7	1.11
Price increase more than current rate	52.7	1.12	48.2	1.1	49	1.1	49.7	1.13	50.7	1.42
Price increase similar to current rate	13.6	0.7	14.9	0.74	14.9	0.71	15.9	0.73	17.6	1.11
Price increase less than current rate	4.6	0.46	5.4	0.45	5.3	0.46	4.3	0.41	3.3	0.41
No changes in prices	25.3	0.9	28.4	0.96	27.8	0.95	28	0.97	25.6	1.07
Decline in prices	3.7	0.38	3.1	0.36	3	0.34	2.1	0.27	2.8	0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Jul-24		Jan-24		Mar-24		May-25		Jul-25
General	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Prices will increase	90.6	0.6	90.6	0.62	89.7	0.67	89.2	0.68	88.1	1.15
Price increase more than current rate	68.6	1.12	68.7	1.06	65.4	1.12	64.7	1.18	63.2	1.73
Price increase similar to current rate	18.3	0.86	18.1	0.87	19.7	0.88	21.5	0.97	20.1	1.4
Price increase less than current rate	3.7	0.43	3.8	0.43	4.6	0.44	3	0.38	4.9	0.64
No changes in prices	6.6	0.5	7.4	0.55	8.4	0.62	8.8	0.61	9.8	1.11
Decline in prices	2.9	0.35	2	0.29	1.9	0.27	2	0.26	2.1	0.35
Food Product
Prices will increase	87.1	0.65	88.8	0.65	87.9	0.66	87	0.66	84.8	1.18
Price increase more than current rate	63.5	1.09	63.5	1.1	60.8	1.09	59.2	1.1	57.9	1.66
Price increase similar to current rate	19	0.84	19.7	0.89	21.1	0.83	20.3	0.86	23.7	1.46
Price increase less than current rate	4.6	0.48	5.6	0.51	6.1	0.49	7.5	0.57	3.2	0.41
No changes in prices	7.9	0.52	7.7	0.55	8.9	0.58	10	0.58	11.6	1.12
Decline in prices	5	0.43	3.5	0.36	3.2	0.33	3	0.32	3.6	0.42
Non- Food Product
Prices will increase	82.9	0.77	83.3	0.78	82.6	0.78	81.9	0.78	80.7	1.23
Price increase more than current rate	61.2	1.12	59.4	1.16	56.7	1.11	55.8	1.12	55.2	1.66
Price increase similar to current rate	16.9	0.8	18.6	0.84	20	0.83	20.7	0.8	22.3	1.41
Price increase less than current rate	4.8	0.46	5.2	0.46	6	0.5	5.4	0.46	3.1	0.44
No changes in prices	12.4	0.64	13.2	0.69	13.9	0.71	15.2	0.73	15.7	1.17
Decline in prices	4.7	0.44	3.6	0.37	3.5	0.35	2.9	0.32	3.6	0.44
Household Durables
Prices will increase	77.4	0.83	76.3	0.9	75.4	0.9	77	0.89	77.7	1.53
Price increase more than current rate	56.6	1.12	54.3	1.13	51.9	1.12	54.8	1.12	56.2	1.63
Price increase similar to current rate	16.1	0.76	17	0.8	17.9	0.78	17.8	0.79	18.3	1.13
Price increase less than current rate	4.8	0.49	5	0.47	5.6	0.46	4.4	0.4	3.2	0.41
No changes in prices	16.3	0.73	18	0.82	17.9	0.78	17.9	0.81	18.7	1.49
Decline in prices	6.3	0.48	5.6	0.43	6.6	0.48	5.1	0.41	3.6	0.42
Cost of Housing
Prices will increase	88.2	0.66	88.7	0.66	88.3	0.67	88.2	0.69	87.8	0.78
Price increase more than current rate	66.6	1.05	67.6	1.05	66.5	1.03	65.9	1.06	64.8	1.44
Price increase similar to current rate	17.7	0.8	17	0.8	17.6	0.8	18.5	0.82	20.1	1.24
Price increase less than current rate	3.9	0.43	4.1	0.45	4.2	0.39	3.8	0.4	2.8	0.37
No changes in prices	8.6	0.55	8.8	0.59	9.3	0.6	9.7	0.63	9.3	0.7
Decline in prices	3.2	0.36	2.5	0.31	2.3	0.3	2.1	0.27	3	0.39
Cost of Services
Prices will increase	83.4	0.76	81.9	0.85	82.4	0.79	83	0.77	84.8	0.85
Price increase more than current rate	61.6	1.17	58.8	1.15	59.4	1.07	59.9	1.12	61.5	1.45
Price increase similar to current rate	17.4	0.82	18.2	0.82	17.6	0.79	18.2	0.77	20.1	1.24
Price increase less than current rate	4.4	0.45	5	0.47	5.4	0.45	4.8	0.44	3.2	0.41
No changes in prices	13.2	0.67	15.5	0.79	15	0.74	15	0.75	12.5	0.79
Decline in prices	3.4	0.39	2.6	0.33	2.6	0.31	2	0.26	2.7	0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.

Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jul-25
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jul-25
	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Overall	8.1	0.12	7.2	0.26	8.9	0.13	8.3	0.26	8.7	0.17	9	0.39
Gender-wise
Male	8.1	0.16	7.3	0.3	9	0.17	8.4	0.31	8.6	0.2	8.6	0.41
Female	8.1	0.16	7.2	0.34	8.9	0.17	8.5	0.36	8.7	0.2	9.1	0.48
Category-wise
Financial Sector Employees	8.1	0.44	7.2	0.73	9	0.44	8.8	0.83	8.9	0.51	8.7	0.93
Other Employees	8.1	0.24	7.3	0.39	9	0.26	8.3	0.5	8.9	0.3	9.3	0.63
Self Employed	8.5	0.21	7.8	0.4	9.4	0.22	8.8	0.51	8.7	0.26	8.9	0.59
Homemaker	8.1	0.18	7.1	0.42	8.9	0.18	8.4	0.41	8.8	0.22	9.1	0.52
Retired Persons	8.6	0.33	8.8	0.9	9.3	0.35	9.5	0.85	9.3	0.41	10.1	0.62
Daily Workers	7.7	0.33	6	0.39	8.7	0.32	7.8	0.55	8.2	0.41	8.1	0.78
Other category	7.3	0.21	6.2	0.28	8.2	0.22	7.1	0.3	8.2	0.26	7.8	0.45
Age Group-wise
Up to 25 years	7.5	0.21	6.2	0.28	8.5	0.22	7.5	0.33	8.5	0.24	8.4	0.5
25 to 30 years	7.8	0.19	7.1	0.42	8.7	0.21	8.2	0.41	8.9	0.25	9.3	0.48
30 to 35 years	8.1	0.23	7.4	0.49	9	0.25	8.4	0.5	8.6	0.28	8.8	0.6
35 to 40 years	8.2	0.23	7.4	0.42	9	0.24	8.3	0.5	9	0.26	9.1	0.53
40 to 45 years	8.2	0.23	7	0.6	9.1	0.24	8.4	0.51	8.7	0.28	8.9	0.69
45 to 50 years	8.5	0.26	8.1	0.48	9.3	0.27	9.5	0.6	9	0.3	9.7	0.59
50 to 55 years	8.8	0.31	8.1	0.51	9.6	0.31	9.5	0.51	9.3	0.35	9.8	0.62
55 to 60 years	8.2	0.31	7	0.68	8.9	0.32	8.1	0.63	8.7	0.38	8.7	0.8
60 years and above	8.6	0.3	8.1	0.78	9.5	0.32	9.6	0.79	8.9	0.37	9.6	0.8
City-wise
Ahmedabad	6	0.63	5.5	0.24	6.2	0.71	5.6	0.34	6.1	0.89	5.4	0.79
Bengaluru	6.9	0.33	5.6	0.14	8	0.41	6.4	0.46	8.4	0.53	7.4	0.61
Bhopal	9.4	0.45	9.2	0.84	11	0.53	10.7	0.89	10.8	0.78	11.2	1.57
Bhubaneswar	6.7	0.39	5.8	0.37	7.9	0.52	8	1.86	8	0.69	8.5	1.47
Chennai	7.1	0.4	6.6	1.03	8.2	0.5	8	1.18	8.1	0.69	8.9	1.57
Delhi	8.5	0.36	8.1	0.98	9.2	0.36	9.1	0.99	8.5	0.44	9	0.93
Guwahati	8.7	0.75	8	0.8	9.3	0.71	8.4	0.85	9.7	1.01	9.8	0.8
Hyderabad	8.2	0.43	7.7	0.61	9.3	0.43	9	0.55	10.5	0.48	10.5	0.32
Jaipur	6.7	0.92	5.6	1.02	7.2	1.04	6.2	1.38	6.6	1.27	5.6	1.82
Jammu	12.4	1.41	14.1	2.11	9.6	0.81	9.2	2.13	8.4	0.83	6.3	1.6
Kolkata	8.7	0.36	9.5	1.07	9.2	0.38	10.1	0.56	8.5	0.39	9.7	0.93
Lucknow	8.3	0.42	8.3	0.98	9.4	0.44	9.5	0.71	9.6	0.56	10.1	0.61
Mumbai	9.2	0.27	8.4	0.34	10.3	0.28	10	0.37	9.7	0.38	10.3	0.45
Nagpur	7.6	0.37	6.8	0.47	8.5	0.38	7.9	0.42	8.4	0.72	8.6	0.92
Patna	7.7	0.69	6.6	1.17	9.2	0.89	7.9	1.76	9.6	0.99	8.5	1.78
Thiruvananthapuram	7.5	0.4	6.8	1.39	8	0.42	7.9	1.1	8.8	0.41	8.4	0.95
Chandigarh	9	0.98	8.6	1.47	9.6	0.97	9.2	1.64	9.6	1.16	9.4	2
Ranchi	7.9	0.86	7.5	1.52	8.8	1.05	8.1	1.57	8.5	1.15	8.2	1.83
Raipur	9	0.73	9.3	1.1	10.2	0.66	10.4	1.2	9.8	0.75	10.6	0.86
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
	Current Perception				Three Months ahead Expectation				One Year ahead Expectation
	Mean		Median		Mean		Median		Mean		Median
	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE	Estimate	SE
Jul-24	8.9	0.09	8.2	0.12	9.8	0.1	9.4	0.24	9.8	0.11	10.1	0.09
Jan-25	8.8	0.08	8.3	0.11	9.8	0.09	9.3	0.23	9.9	0.11	10.2	0.07
Mar-25	8.5	0.08	7.8	0.11	9.5	0.08	8.9	0.13	9.4	0.11	9.7	0.23
May-25	8.4	0.08	7.7	0.12	9.5	0.09	8.9	0.12	9.4	0.11	9.5	0.25
Jul-25	8.1	0.12	7.2	0.26	8.9	0.13	8.3	0.26	8.7	0.17	9.0	0.39
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.

Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended	Food	Non-Food	Households durables	Housing	Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jul-24	66.3	66.2	61.7	66.3	68.4
Jan-25	66.2	66.2	61.1	65.3	66
Mar-25	64.4	67.6	60.1	65	68.8
May-25	63.5	64.8	60.4	63.6	67.4
Jul-25	65.9	70.5	48.7	50.9	62.7
One Year Ahead
Jul-24	76.3	74.6	69.6	77.1	76.2
Jan-25	75.3	73.1	67.8	75.3	73.9
Mar-25	74.3	72.7	67	75.4	76.9
May-25	74.4	70.5	68.6	72.7	75.4
Jul-25	81.6	78.1	69.5	61.9	61.8

Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-25
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	32	13	8	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	3	1	67
	1-<2	8	48	36	9	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	109
	2-<3	2	9	106	41	20	7	1	1	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	1	0	1	195
	3-<4	1	6	16	154	40	35	23	16	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	1	0	299
	4-<5	0	1	14	11	206	126	34	16	7	1	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	422
	5-<6	1	1	9	22	15	611	163	150	62	2	51	1	3	0	0	4	2	0	1097
	6-<7	1	0	1	1	2	5	135	64	48	3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	266
	7-<8	0	0	0	2	3	12	6	115	61	46	29	5	4	2	0	0	0	0	285
	8-<9	0	0	0	1	1	6	4	1	88	97	152	13	8	2	2	6	2	0	383
	9-<10	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	5	0	38	44	18	5	1	1	2	1	0	121
	10-<11	1	0	2	0	1	12	5	1	3	2	470	76	306	28	12	103	44	0	1066
	11-<12	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19	8	4	1	3	1	0	40
	12-<13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	73	8	73	15	6	0	176
	13-<14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	4	1	0	15
	14-<15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13	6	4	0	24
	15-<16	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	92	69	0	170
	>=16	2	0	2	2	1	7	0	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	3	434	0	462
	Total	48	78	195	248	294	831	377	371	271	190	767	133	422	50	109	241	570	2	5197

Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-25
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)		<1	1-<2	2-<3	3-<4	4-<5	5-<6	6-<7	7-<8	8-<9	9-<10	10-<11	11-<12	12-<13	13-<14	14-<15	15-<16	>=16	No idea	Total
	<1	41	3	6	4	3	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	67
	1-<2	23	23	17	17	9	9	5	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	109
	2-<3	40	8	68	21	17	20	3	0	2	1	5	0	5	0	1	2	2	0	195
	3-<4	51	8	8	78	19	65	12	11	4	2	9	5	7	6	5	9	0	0	299
	4-<5	62	1	6	0	120	109	43	25	17	2	9	4	12	3	4	5	0	0	422
	5-<6	127	2	5	7	3	370	109	141	87	29	142	4	15	4	4	40	8	0	1097
	6-<7	30	0	3	1	2	0	81	41	45	15	29	2	14	0	0	1	2	0	266
	7-<8	35	0	0	3	0	3	1	72	31	34	46	9	31	3	2	7	8	0	285
	8-<9	27	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	62	37	140	21	28	12	3	42	10	0	383
	9-<10	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	29	39	5	13	3	6	4	5	0	121
	10-<11	72	0	1	0	0	10	1	1	1	0	363	24	297	25	14	143	114	0	1066
	11-<12	2	0	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	4	6	4	4	3	5	4	0	40
	12-<13	27	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	0	1	0	25	7	67	25	12	0	176
	13-<14	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	3	3	1	0	15
	14-<15	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	3	5	0	24
	15-<16	6	0	0	0	0	18	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	60	79	0	170
	>=16	54	0	0	2	0	39	0	1	0	0	38	0	0	0	0	0	328	0	462
	Total	618	45	116	134	173	668	255	295	250	150	837	80	451	70	123	350	582	0	5197

¹ The survey is conducted at bi-monthly intervals by the Reserve Bank; it provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. Hence, survey results reflect respondents’ views, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.

² All estimates of inflation expectations are given in terms of median, unless stated otherwise.

³ Results of the previous survey round were released on the Bank’s website on June 06, 2025. Unit-level data for previous rounds of the survey are available on the Bank’s ‘Database on Indian Economy’ (DBIE) portal (weblink: https://data.rbi.org.in/DBIE/#/dbie/home) under the head ‘Unit-level Data’.