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I. The Real Economy

The Indian economy recorded an impressive performance during the first quarter of 2005-06. According to the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), real GDP growth in the first quarter (April-June) of 2005-06 accelerated to 8.1 per cent from 7.6 per cent in the corresponding period of the preceding year. The improved performance in real activity was propelled by the double-digit growth in industrial activity and robust services sector. Industrial activity was mainly led by the manufacturing sub-sector. The expansion of services sector continued to be spearheaded by the sub-sector ‘trade, hotels, restaurants, transport, storage and communication’, and supported by ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ and construction. Real GDP originating from the ‘agriculture and allied activities’, however, remained subdued reflecting the adverse impact of the uneven monsoon during 2004-05 (Table 1).

Against the backdrop of the economic performance in the first quarter, developments in the real economy during 2005-06 so far covering the agricultural situation, the progress of the South-West monsoon, industrial production, business and investment expectations and the lead indicators of service sector activity are presented in this section.

Table 1: Growth Rates of Real GDP

                   

(Per cent)

                       

Sector

 

1993-94 to

2003-

2004-

 

2004-05

 

2005-06

       

2002-03

04*

05#

         
       

(Average)

   

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

                       

1

     

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

                       

1.

Agriculture and Allied Activities

 

2.1

9.6

1.1

3.8

0.0

-0.5

1.8

2.0

       

(26.5)

(21.7)

(20.5)

         
 

1.1

Agriculture

 

2.0

10.3

N.A

         

2.

Industry

 

6.6

6.5

8.3

7.6

9.1

9.2

7.3

10.1

       

(22.1)

(21.6)

(21.9)

         
 

2.1

Mining and Quarrying

 

4.7

6.4

4.5

6.9

4.7

4.5

2.5

3.2

 

2.2

Manufacturing

 

7.1

6.9

9.2

7.9

9.6

10.5

8.6

11.3

 

2.3

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply

5.2

3.7

5.5

6.1

9.1

4.4

2.6

7.9

3.

Services

 

7.8

8.9

8.6

9.1

7.7

8.8

8.8

9.6

       

(51.4)

(56.7)

(57.6)

         
 

3.1

Trade, Hotels, Restaurants,

                 
   

Transport, Storage and

                 
   

Communication

 

8.8

11.8

11.4

11.5

12.3

10.8

11.1

12.4

 

3.2

Financing, Insurance, Real

                 
   

Estate and Business Services

 

8.0

7.1

7.1

7.0

5.5

8.2

7.7

8.3

 

3.3

Community, Social and

                 
   

Personal Services

 

6.9

5.8

5.9

8.2

3.0

5.6

7.2

6.1

 

3.4

Construction

 

5.7

7.0

5.2

5.0

4.6

7.2

4.1

7.9

4.

Real GDP at Factor Cost

 

6.0

8.5

6.9

7.6

6.7

6.4

7.0

8.1

       

(100)

(100)

(100)

         

*: Quick Estimates. #: Revised Estimates. N.A: Not Available.
Note: Figures in parentheses denote shares in real GDP.
Source: Central Statistical Organisation.

Agricultural Situation

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast on July 6, 2005, the rainfall during the South-West monsoon season (June-September) 2005, for the country as a whole, was likely to be 98 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/- 5 per cent. The progress of the monsoon was weak till June 22, 2005, with cumulative rainfall being 49 per cent below normal. In the subsequent period, monsoon picked up, offsetting the earlier shortfall. The cumulative rainfall recorded during the season (June 1 to September 30, 2005) was, thus, only one per cent below normal as compared with 13 per cent below normal during the corresponding period of the previous year. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, cumulative rainfall was excess/normal in 32 subdivisions (23 sub-divisions during last year) and deficient in 4 sub-divisions (13 sub-divisions during last year) (Chart 1). At the district level, 65 percent of the total number of districts received excess/normal rainfall, while the rest received deficient rain. Concomitantly, the total live water storage as on October 14, 2005 in the 76 major reservoirs1 monitored by the Central Water Commission improved significantly to 81 per cent of the Full Reservoir Level (FRL) as compared with 65 per cent a year ago.

Kharif sowing which had been initially adversely affected due to delayed and weak monsoon picked up with the revival of the monsoon. Accordingly, as on October 10, 2005, the area coverage in the case of all major crops except for coarse cereals and oilseeds was higher than that in the previous year. However, area coverage under oilseeds was higher compared to its normal sown area (Table 2).

According to the First Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture on September 16, 2005, total kharif foodgrains production during

1 These reservoirs account for 63 per cent of the total reservoir capacity of the country.

Table 2: Progress of Area under Kharif Crops - 2005-06

     

(Million hectares)

Crop

Normal Area

Area Coverage (As on October 10)

   

2004

2005

Variation

1

2

3

4

5

Rice

39.9

34.7

36.1

1.4

Coarse Cereals

22.9

22.5

21.8

-0.7

Of which :

       

Bajra

9.3

9.0

8.2

-0.8

Jowar

4.6

3.9

3.8

-0.1

Maize

6.0

7.1

7.3

0.2

Pulses

10.6

11.0

11.2

0.2

Cotton

8.3

8.5

8.5

0.0

Kharif Oilseeds

15.1

17.8

17.3

-0.5

Of which :

       

Groundnut

5.5

5.7

5.6

-0.1

Soyabean

6.3

8.0

7.7

-0.3

Sesamum

1.6

1.9

1.8

-0.1

Niger

0.5

0.4

0.3

-0.1

Sugarcane

4.3

3.8

4.1

0.3

All Crops

101.0

99.0

99.9

0.9

         

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

2005-06 at 105.3 million tonnes will be marginally higher (1.9 per cent) than last year but notably lower than that achieved in 2003-04 (Tables 3 and 4). The increase in the foodgrains production is expected to emanate mainly from higher output of rice and maize. Among the commercial crops, the output of oilseeds and cotton is estimated to decline while that of sugarcane is expected to show a significant improvement.

Table 3: Kharif Production: 2005-06

 

(Million tonnes)

Crops

2004-05*

2005-06**

Variation (Per cent)

1

2

3

4

Total Foodgrains

103.3

105.3

1.9

Rice

71.7

73.8

2.9

Coarse Cereals

26.7

26.4

-1.1

Of which :

     

Jowar

4.0

3.9

-2.5

Bajra

8.1

7.8

-3.7

Maize

11.6

12.2

5.2

Pulses

5.0

5.0

0.0

Other Kharif Pulses

2.4

2.7

12.5

Tur

2.6

2.3

-11.5

Oilseeds

14.9

14.6

-2.0

Of which :

     

Groundnut

5.3

5.9

11.3

Soyabean

7.5

6.6

-12.0

Cotton#

17.0

15.9

-6.5

Jute@

9.6

9.2

-4.2

Mesta@

0.9

0.9

0.0

Sugarcane

232.3

257.7

10.9

       

# : Million bales of 170 kgs. each.
@: Million bales of 180 kgs. each.
* : 4th Advance Estimates.
**:1st Advance Estimates.
Note : The figures given for individual crops will not add up to
coarse cereals, total foodgrains and total oilseeds as
some individual crops are not covered in the table.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

Table 4: Agricultural Production

         

(Million tonnes)

Crop

       

2003-04

 

2004-05

       

T

A

T

A $

1

     

2

3

5

6

Rice

     

93.0

88.3

93.5

85.3

Wheat

     

78.0

72.1

79.5

72.0

Coarse Cereals

     

34.0

38.1

36.8

33.9

Pulses

     

15.0

14.9

15.3

13.4

Total Foodgrains

     

220.0

213.5

225.1

204.6

Kharif

     

111.7

116.9

113.8

103.3

Rabi

     

108.3

96.6

111.3

101.3

Total Oilseeds

     

24.7

25.3

26.2

26.1

Kharif

     

14.7

16.8

16.3

14.9

Rabi

     

10.0

8.5

9.9

11.2

Sugarcane

     

320.0

237.3

270.0

232.3

Cotton #

     

15.0

13.9

15.0

17.0

Jute and Mesta ##

   

12.0

11.2

11.8

10.5

               

T : Target. A : Achievement. $:Fourth Advance Estimates.
# : Million bales of 170 kgs each.
##:Million bales of 180 kgs each.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

Food Management

The total procurement of rice and wheat during 2005-06 (up to September 29, 2005) at 19.6 million tonnes was 8.0 per cent lower than that in the corresponding period of the previous year. The total off-take of foodgrains during 2005-06 (April 1 to August 31, 2005) at 15.9 million tonnes was also lower by 3.2 per cent over the corresponding period of the preceding year, mainly due to a sharp fall in the off-take under the Open Market Sales (OMS) including exports and the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) (Table 5). Reflecting the lower procurement, the total stocks of foodgrains with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the State agencies stood at around 19.2 million tonnes as on September 1, 2005, about 16.5 per cent lower than a year ago.

Industrial Performance

Industrial activity gathered further strength during the first five months of 2005-06, although there was some loss of momentum during July-August 2005. During April-August 2005, industrial production accelerated to 8.8 per cent led by the manufacturing sector (Chart 2). Electricity and mining sectors, on the other hand, recorded a deceleration. Slowdown in the mining sector may be attributable in part to the decline in production of crude oil caused by break-out of fire in the Mumbai-High oil field. Lower growth in electricity sector is attributable to shortages of coal and gas.

According to the use-based classification, basic goods recorded moderate pick-up benefiting from strong growth of cement and basic metal and alloy industries. Capital goods growth remained robust on the back of strong investment demand in the economy. The marginal deceleration during April-August 2005 could be attributed to high-base effect as also slow down in growth of machinery and equipment. Consumer goods recorded an impressive double-digit growth led largely

Table 5: Management of Food Stocks

                     

(Million tonnes)

 

Opening Stock of

Procurement of

Foodgrains Offtake

Closing

Norms

   

Foodgrains

 

Foodgrains

       

Stock

 
                         

Month

Rice

Wheat

Total

Rice

Wheat

Total

PDS

OWS

OMS -

Exports

   
                 

Domestic

     

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2004

                       

April

13.1

6.9

20.7

1.2

14.5

15.7

2.0

0.5

0.0

0.3

32.4

15.8

May

12.7

19.0

32.4

1.3

1.7

3.0

2.3

0.6

0.0

0.1

32.3

 

June

12.3

19.4

32.3

0.9

0.5

1.4

2.3

1.0

0.0

0.1

30.6

 

July

10.8

19.2

30.6

0.4

0.1

0.5

2.4

1.0

0.0

0.1

27.2

24.3

August

9.1

17.4

27.2

0.5

0.0

0.5

2.4

1.0

0.0

0.1

23.0

 

September

7.1

15.8

23.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

2.5

1.0

0.0

0.1

20.3

 

October

6.1

14.2

20.3

6.2

0.0

6.2

2.4

0.8

0.0

0.0

23.7

18.1

November

11.0

12.6

23.7

2.7

0.0

2.7

2.4

0.6

0.0

0.0

21.8

 

December

11.1

10.7

21.8

2.6

0.0

2.6

2.6

0.7

0.0

0.0

21.7

 

2005

                       

January

12.8

8.9

21.7

3.9

0.0

3.9

2.7

0.8

0.0

0.0

21.6

16.8

February

14.2

7.3

21.6

2.3

0.0

2.3

2.7

0.9

0.0

0.0

20.0

 

March

13.7

5.8

20.0

1.7

0.0

1.7

2.7

1.7

0.0

0.0

18.0

 

April

13.3

4.1

18.0

1.2

12.8

14.0

2.2

0.8

0.0

0.0

28.5

16.2

May

13.0

15.1

28.5

1.2

2.0

3.1

2.2

0.8

0.0

0.0

27.9

 

June

11.6

15.7

27.9

0.8

0.1

0.9

2.2

1.5

.0.0

0.0

25.1

 

July

10.1

14.5

25.1

0.4

0.0

0.4

2.3

0.8

0.1

0.0

21.4

26.9

August

8.0

13.0

21.4

0.9

0.0

0.9

2.1

0.8

0.1

0.0

19.2

 

September

7.2

11.6

19.2

0.4

0.0

0.4

N.A

N.A

N.A

N.A

N.A

 
                         

PDS : Public Distribution System. OWS : Other Welfare Schemes.
OMS : Open Market Sales. N.A. : Not Available.
Note:Closing stock figures may differ from those arrived at by adding the opening
stocks and procurement and deducting offtake, as stocks include coarse grains.
Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution,
Government of India.

by non-durable segment and its relative contribution to the overall IIP during April-August 2005 consequently went up significantly to 52.0 per cent. Consumer non-durables segment accelerated sharply during the period largely due to a turnaround

 

in growth of food products and a marked acceleration in growth of beverages, tobacco and related products. Intermediate goods sector, however, witnessed a subdued performance mainly on account of slack in basic chemicals and chemical products and negative growth in petroleum products (Chart 3).

At the two-digit manufacturing level, 14 out of 17 industry groups recorded a positive growth during April-August 2005. Ten industry groups recorded an accelerated growth as compared with eight industry groups in the corresponding period of the previous year. Textile products (including wearing apparel) recorded the highest growth of 21.5 per cent during April-August 2005 benefiting from the complete phase out of textile quotas effective January 2005 (Table 6).

Table 6: Growth Performance of Manufacturing Industry Groups: April-August 2005

   
           
 

Acceleration in Growth

Deceleration in Growth

 

Negative Growth

           

1.

Textiles products (including

1.

Chemicals and chemical

1.

Wood and wood products,

 

apparels) (21.5)

 

products (12.7)

 

furniture and fixtures (-1.5)

2.

Beverages, tobacco and

2.

Machinery and equipment other

2.

Wool, silk and man-made fibre

 

related products (16.8)

 

than transport equipment (8.8)

 

textiles (-1.8)

3.

Basic metal and alloy

3.

Leather and leather and fur

3.

Metal products and parts (except

 

industries (16.8)

 

products (4.8)

 

machinery and equipment) (-3.5)

4.

Other manufacturing

4.

Rubber, plastic, petroleum and

   
 

industries (16.3)

 

coal products (3.6)

   

5.

Transport equipment and parts (11.0)

       

6.

Cotton textiles (10.4)

       

7.

Paper and paper products (7.6)

       

8.

Non-metallic mineral products (7.5)

       

9.

Food products (5.1)

       

10.

Jute and other vegetable

       
 

fibre textiles (2.7)

       
           

Note: Figures in parentheses are growth rates during April-August, 2005.

Infrastructure

During April-August 2005, the infrastructure sector continued to remain subdued on account of a decline in crude petroleum and petroleum refinery products and lower growth in electricity production (Chart 4). On the other hand, cement, finished steel and coal sectors recorded acceleration. Crude oil recorded negative growth on account of lower production due to disruption in production activity owing to break-out of fire in Mumbai High oilfield on July 27, 2005. High growth in the cement sector reflected robust demand from the construction sector as also the low base. Finished steel growth was buoyed up by domestic demand from the consumer durables, engineering and infrastructure sectors as well as global demand.

Business Expectations Surveys

Business expectation surveys suggest that industrial activity is likely to remain buoyant. The National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) business confidence index (BCI) rose for the fourth successive quarter and is now at its highest level in the last ten years since December 1995 (Table 7). FICCI’s business

Table 7: Business Expectations Surveys Business Expectations

 

 

 

Agency

Growth over

     

previous round

 

Expectation for

Index

 
     

(Per cent)

       

1

2

3

4

       

Dun & Bradstreet

2005 (July-September)

Business Optimism Index

5.6

NCAER

2005 (July-December)

Business Confidence Index

0.7

FICCI

2005-06 (July-December)

Business Confidence Index

2.7

CII

2005-06 (April-September)

Business Confidence Index

1.4

RBI

2005-06 (October-December)

Business Expectations Index

2.6

confidence index also exhibited an improvement and revealed that the corporate houses are exuberant about their medium to long-term business outlook. According to the survey, 76 per cent of the respondents expected sales to be much higher over the next six months, 48 per cent expected ‘higher to much higher’ profits and 46 per cent are planning ‘higher to much higher’ investments. CII-ASCON survey for April-June 2005-06 also suggests the continuance of buoyant manufacturing industrial performance.

According to the Reserve Bank’s latest Industrial Outlook Survey, the Business Expectations Index for October-December 2005 quarter increased by 2.6 per cent over the previous quarter’s level (Chart 5). The assessment about the overall business situation for July-September 2005 showed the same level of confidence as in the previous quarter. The level of confidence was, however, higher than that during the corresponding quarter a year ago.

Survey results indicate that the overall business situation, financial situation, availability of finance, production, order books, capacity utilisation, employment, exports and profit margins are expected to improve during the quarter October-December 2005 vis-à-vis July-September 2005 (Table 8).

These relatively optimistic expectations are corroborated by the improvements that have taken place in corporate financial performance in recent years. As a result of stronger capitalisation and operating cash flows, overall gearing measures have improved in the Indian corporate sector. With over 97 per cent of CRISIL ratings carrying ‘stable’ outlooks, and no rating carrying a ‘negative’ outlook, the current financial health of corporate India can be adjudged to be healthy. However, there are some indications that the corporate sector will

Table 8: Net Response on ‘A Quarter Ahead’ Expectations about Industrial Performance

           

(Per cent)

               
     

Oct.-

Jan.-

Apr-

July-

Oct-

 

Parameter

Response

Dec.

March

June

Sept.

Dec.

     

2004

2005

2005

2005

2005

     

(955)

(987)

(987)

(816)

(961)

               
 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

               

1.

Overall business situation

Better

47.4

47.4

44.3

45.5

51.3

2.

Financial situation

Better

37.0

37.5

36.7

36.7

42.3

3.

Working capital finance requirement

Increase

30.9

29.2

27.2

28.8

32.7

4.

Availability of finance

Improve

28.6

31.3

30.8

30.7

34.1

5.

Production

Increase

44.5

45.9

38.7

40.7

46.9

6.

Order books

Increase

42.6

42.2

37.4

39.6

43.7

7.

Cost of raw material

Decrease

-39.0

-41.8

-36.7

-43.6

-30.0

8.

Inventory of raw material

Below average

-4.1

-7.4

-4.3

-4.2

-6.9

9.

Inventory of finished goods

Below average

-3.5

-5.2

-3.1

-4.2

-3.3

10.

Capacity utilisation

Increase

27.8

31.3

27.7

25.4

31.1

11.

Level of capacity utilisation

Above normal

6.3

12.9

8.1

7.6

10.9

12.

Assessment of the production capacity

More than adequate

5.4

6.6

5.7

5.3

5.0

13.

Employment in the company

Increase

6.0

8.0

7.7

7.8

12.7

14.

Exports, if applicable

Increase

31.6

31.5

30.2

32.5

33.3

15.

Imports, if any

Increase

21.3

22.2

20.3

23.7

19.2

16.

Selling prices are expected to

Increase

7.6

8.6

11.0

13.3

7.8

17.

If increase expected in selling prices

Increase at lower rate

9.9

8.2

13.5

14.0

16.6

18.

Profit margin

Increase

4.4

5.6

6.3

7.1

9.6

               

Note: 1. Figures in parentheses represent number of companies covered in the Survey.
2. ‘Net response’ is measured as the per cent share differential between the companies
reporting ‘optimistic’ (positive) and ‘pessimistic’ (negative) responses; responses indicating
status quo (no change) are not reckoned.Higher ‘net response’ indicates higher level of
confidence and vice versa.

have to be watchful in the short to medium term future with the possible unfolding of potential risks. These risks could emanate from the sharp increases in oil prices, plateauing of growth rates in some key industries and infrastructure constraints. Furthermore, with the manufacturing sector operating at high capacity utilisation levels, significant growth over the medium to long term will call for fresh investments that could also involve higher borrowing, and consequent exposure to associated risks and possible deterioration of gearing ratios. Illustratively, a recent analysis of trends in its ratings by CRISIL shows that the modified credit ratio (the ratio of upgrades plus reaffirmations to downgrades plus reaffirmations) dropped after three years of increase - it fell to 1.05 during April-September 2005 from the all time high of 1.16 in 2004-05. With the ratio remaining above 1.0 indicating continuing credit health of the corporate sector, this change points to the stiffer challenges that could be in store for corporate India in maintaining or improving its credit quality in the short to medium term.

Table 9: Indicators of Service Sector Activity

   
 

(Growth rates in per cent)

     

Sub-sector

April-August 2004

April-August 2005

     

1

2

3

     

Tourist arrivals

26.4

26.0

     

Commercial vehicles production

41.4

11.6

     

Railway revenue earning freight traffic

6.3

10.9

     

New cell phone connections

31.9

34.3

     

Cargo handled at major ports

10.3

13.6

     

Civil aviation

   

a) Export cargo handled (April-July)

7.5

9.1

b) Import cargo handled (April-July)

36.8

7.8

c) Passengers handled at international terminals (April-July)

18.5

12.5

d) Passengers handled at domestic terminals (April-July)

26.8

20.4

     

Roads: Upgradation of Highways (April-July)

-3.1

-0.7

     

Cement

3.8

11.4

     

Steel

5.3

7.6

     

Aggregate deposits (April-September)

6.8

12.3

     

Non-food credit (April-September)

11.9

14.8

     

Central Government expenditure

32.1

33.2

Services Sector

Services sector growth during the first quarter of 2005-06 accelerated to 9.6 per cent from 9.1 per cent a year ago, led by all its major constituent sectors (see Table 1). The growth of the ‘trade, hotels, restaurants, transport, storage and communication’ sub-sector, apart from reflecting the upbeat economic climate in the country, benefited from strong tourist arrivals, higher traffic handled by the railways, increased cargo handled at major ports, growth in cargo and passengers handled by civil aviation, and the continued surge in cell phone connections. Financing, real estate and business services were propelled by the Information Technology (IT) and IT Enabled Services and Business Process Outsourcing, and upsurge in bank credit. Construction sector recorded a higher growth in consonance with the uptrend in cement production. Latest available information on the major indicators of services sector indicates continued buoyancy in the second quarter of 2005-06 (Table 9).

The revival of the South-West monsoon, the acceleration of the industry, buoyancy in services and positive business confidence and expectations have improved growth prospects for 2005-06. The forecasts by different agencies and institutions for the overall growth during 2005-06 are set out in Table 10.

Table 10: Projections of Real Gross Domestic Product for India by Various Agencies for 2005-06

Agency

Projections (Per cent)

Assumptions (Sectoral)

Month of Projections

       

1

2

3

4

       

ADB

6.9

Normal monsoon.

September, 2005

   

Agriculture 4.4 per cent

 
   

Industry 6.7 per cent

 
   

Services 7.7 per cent

 
       

BIS

7.1

 

June, 2005

       

CII

a) 7.2

Agriculture 3.0 per cent

end-May, 2005

   

Industry 8.1 per cent

 
   

Services 8.3 per cent

 
 

b) 7.3

Agriculture 3.2 per cent

October, 2005

       

CMIE

a) 6.0

Agriculture (-) 0.7 per cent

June 2005

   

Industry 8.5 per cent

 
   

Services 7.5 per cent

 
 

b) 6.8

Agriculture 3.0 per cent

August, 2005

   

Industry 8.5 per cent

 
   

Services 7.5 per cent

 
       

CRISIL

a) 7.0

Agriculture 3.0 per cent

May, 2005

   

Industry 7.0 per cent

 
   

Services 8.6 per cent

 
 

b) 7.0

Agriculture 2.5 per cent

September, 2005

   

Industry 7.4 per cent

 
   

Services 8.5 per cent

 
       

NCAER

a) 7.2

 

Mid-May, 2005

 

b) 7.05-7.1

Agriculture 2.5 per cent

July, 2005

   

Industry 7.54 per cent

 
   

Services 8.55 per cent

 
       

IMF

a) 6.7

 

April, 2005

 

b) 7.1

 

September, 2005

       

Ministry of

7.0

Normal monsoon

May, 2005

Finance

 

Agriculture 3.0 per cent

 
   

Industry and Services expected to perform well

 
       

Reserve

Around 7.0

Normal monsoon

April, 2005

Bank of

 

Agriculture 3.0 per cent

 

India

 

Industry and Services expected to maintain

 
   

current growth momentum.

 

 

 

 

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