This article presents the findings of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for April-June 2010 quarter, the 20th round in the series. The survey gives inflation expectations of 4000 households across 12 cities for the next quarter (July–September 2010) and for the next year (July 2010-June 2011). The survey represents the expectation of inflation for the respondent’s own basket of consumption. The inflation rates from this survey thus represent the inflation expectations of 4000 urban households based on their individual consumption basket and, therefore, these are not to be regarded as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on nearterm inflationary pressures and are also supplement to other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation. The survey findings indicate that households expect inflation to rise further by 30 and 80 basis points during next quarter (11.4 per cent), and, next year (11.9 per cent), respectively, from the expected current rate of 11.10 per cent. Households’ expectations of general price rise is mainly influenced by movements in foodgrains’ prices. High price-rise is expected in food, housing prices and cost of service. On category-wise inflation expectations, Housewives and Dailywage workers are comparatively more consistent in their inflation expectations. I. Introduction Since September 2005, the Bank conducts a quarterly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households. The survey seeks qualitative responses on price changes (general prices as well as prices of specific product groups) in the next three months and the next one year and quantitative responses on current, three month ahead and one year ahead inflation rates. While inflation affects purchasing power, inflation expectations are what affect people’s behavior in ways that have a long-term economic impact. Inflation expectations of households are subjective assessments and based on their individual consumption basket and therefore may be different from the actual wholesale and consumer inflation numbers released periodically by the government. II. Data Coverage & Methodology The survey schedule that has been designed for the Inflation Expectations Survey of Household (IESH) is a single-page schedule (Appendix 1). It has been organised into four blocks. The first block seeks respondents particulars including name, contact details, gender, age and category (occupation). The second and third blocks seek product-wise price expectations for three months and a year ahead, respectively. The fourth block collects the rate of inflation of the respondent for three time points – current, three months ahead and one year ahead. II.1 Coverage The Reserve Bank conducts the survey in 12 cities every quarter. The major metropolitan cities, viz., Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai are represented by 500 households each while the eight other cities, viz., Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Patna, Guwahati, Bangalore and Hyderabad are represented by 250 households each. The respondents are well-spread across the cities to provide a good geographical coverage. The male and female respondents in the group are usually in the ratio of 3:2. The category-wise representation of the respondents is presented in Table 1. The sample coverage is nearly as per the target in all rounds. II.2 Information collected The price expectations are sought in the survey for general prices and for five groups (food products, non-food products, consumer durables, housing and others). The general price indicates all the product groups taken together. The options for responses are (i) price increase more than current rate, (ii) price increase similar to current rate, (iii) price increase lower than current rate, (iv) no change in prices and (v) decline in prices. The first three of the five options pertain to the respondents’ expectations on the rate of future price increase compared to the current rate. These expectations are sought from the respondents for three months ahead as well as a year ahead period.
Table 1: Respondents Profile (Category) : Share in Total Sample |
Respondents’ Category |
Sample |
Target |
Financial Sector Employees |
9.4 |
10.0 |
Other Employees |
16.7 |
15.0 |
Self-employed |
20.6 |
20.0 |
Housewives |
29.1 |
30.0 |
Retired Persons |
8.9 |
10.0 |
Daily Workers |
8.0 |
10.0 |
Other Category |
7.4 |
5.0 |
Note: Sample proportion above is for the June 2010 survey |
The inflation expectations of the respondents that represent the year-on-year changes in prices are collected through Block 4. The inflation rates are collected in intervals – the lowest being ‘less than 1 per cent’ and the highest being ’16 per cent and above’ with 100 basis point size of all intermediate classes. III. Survey Results The price expectations are collected through qualitative questions in Block 2 and 3 of the survey schedule. III.1 General Price Expectations The survey shows that the percentage of respondents on general price expectations for both three months ahead and one year ahead have been rising since March 2008. The percentage of respondents who expect this price increase to be higher than current rate have also risen consistently from March 2009 to December 2009. Though this percentage has declined during March 2010, the same has turned back in the current survey round (i.e., June 2010) Table 2. III.2 Product Group-wise Price Expectations The product group-wise price expectations based on Block 3 of the survey schedule are given in Statement I. The expectation of price rise in food products for the July-September 2010 quarter has decreased marginally but higher proportion of respondents expect prices to increase more than the current rate compared to that in the previous round; similar trend is observed for the full year July 2010-June 2011. However, the percentage of respondents expecting price rise in food products are on higher side as compared to the corresponding period a year ago (Round 16) A similar pattern is also observed for the non-food product group. For the other product groups viz., Household durables, Housing prices and Cost of services, it is observed that the expectations of price rise for July-September 2010 quarter and for the full year July 2010-June 2011 is on the higher side as compared to previous round of the survey (Round 19) and the corresponding period a year ago (Round 16). In fact, share of households expecting ‘price increase less than current rate’ has declined for all product groups.
Table 2: Percentage of Respondents on General Price Expectations |
Round No./survey period → |
Three months ahead (percentage of respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
89.8 |
92.0 |
93.1 |
95.8 |
97.4 |
95.7 |
95.3 |
Price increase more than current rate |
66.4 |
52.9 |
54.9 |
63.5 |
72.2 |
74.6 |
66.9 |
72.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
20.1 |
22.4 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
16.6 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.0 |
16.8 |
14.8 |
8.9 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
No change in prices |
3.4 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
Decline in price |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
Options |
One year ahead (percentage of respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.2 |
90.6 |
95.6 |
93.7 |
96.3 |
96.3 |
96.5 |
95.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.6 |
59.7 |
64.7 |
62.8 |
69.5 |
68.2 |
62.8 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
18.0 |
15.9 |
18.5 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
18.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.3 |
12.9 |
15.0 |
12.4 |
9.5 |
12.9 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
No change in prices |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
III.3 Coherence Between General Prices and Product Groups’ Prices To observe how a respondent assigns priorities to various product groups for working out price variation in general, an exercise has been carried out. Under this exercise, a degree of coherence between General prices and other prices of product groups is derived based on the total percentage of respondents who expects movements of General price in concurrence with that of the corresponding product groups. The degree of coherence about the price expectations in general for three months ahead and one year ahead vis-à-vis various product groups are given in Table 3 and 4. It is observed that the general price expectations are more in tune with food price expectations as compared to other product groups. This association was lowest for household durables product group. This indicates that respondents assign the highest priority to food prices when they think about the price movements in general. In the current round of the survey, about 90 per cent of the respondents are influenced by food prices for arriving at three months ahead and one year ahead general inflation. Similarly, about 80 per cent of the respondents are of the view that Housing and Cost of Services are influencing factors for three months ahead inflation while in case of Household durables it is just around 63 per cent to 67 per cent.
Table 3 : Percentage of Respondents in Coherence with General Price Expectations vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups – Three Months Ahead Price Rise |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Food |
Non- Food |
House- holds durables |
Hous- ing |
Cost of services |
13 |
Sep-08 |
87.1 |
80.5 |
50.0 |
80.0 |
69.7 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
88.9 |
85.1 |
60.9 |
69.0 |
70.3 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
85.4 |
85.3 |
62.8 |
73.0 |
73.9 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
87.0 |
79.3 |
59.4 |
72.0 |
76.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
89.1 |
81.3 |
56.5 |
78.1 |
82.2 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
88.3 |
83.6 |
62.3 |
82.7 |
79.3 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
87.4 |
81.4 |
66.5 |
78.1 |
76.6 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
89.9 |
82.4 |
63.6 |
80.2 |
80.8 |
III.4 Inflation Expectations The inflation expectations are collected through quantitative Block 4 of the survey schedule. The perception of current inflation rate and expectations of three months ahead and one year ahead inflation since Round 5 (September 2006) are shown in Table-5 and Chart 1. It represents the average inflation rate of 4,000 respondents based on individual consumption basket. The movement of the inflation expectations shows that the future inflation expectations are usually higher than the current inflation. In the current round of the survey (i.e., June 2010), the average rate of inflation expectations for current, three months ahead and one year ahead are 11.1 per cent, 11.4 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively, a little higher than 10.3 per cent, 10.6 per cent and 11.0 per cent measured in the last survey round (i.e., March 2010), but are lower than the peak inflation rates observed in September 2008. These inflation rates do not attempt to forecast the quantum of future inflation, but gives useful inputs on directional movement of future inflation.
Table 4 : Percentage of Respondents in Coherence with General Price Expectations vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups – One Year Ahead Price Rise |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Food |
Non- Food |
House- holds durables |
Housing |
Cost of services |
13 |
Sep-08 |
89.2 |
78.5 |
49.1 |
80.5 |
72.3 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
91.8 |
88.3 |
63.4 |
70.9 |
74.4 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
89.1 |
88.1 |
65.3 |
79.4 |
74.8 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
89.2 |
82.2 |
61.4 |
76.8 |
78.5 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
91.9 |
85.8 |
65.0 |
78.9 |
82.3 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
91.1 |
88.4 |
69.0 |
82.8 |
79.3 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
89.9 |
83.6 |
67.3 |
79.7 |
76.2 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
91.7 |
83.2 |
67.2 |
79.4 |
81.1 |
Table 5: Households Inflation Expectations – Current, Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Expectation period |
Current |
3 Months ahead |
1 Year ahead |
5 |
Sep-06 |
Oct-Dec06 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
6 |
Dec-06 |
Jan-Mar07 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
7 |
Mar-07 |
Apr-Jun07 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
8 |
Jun-07 |
Jul-Sep07 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
9 |
Sep-07 |
Oct-Dec07 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
6 |
10 |
Dec-07 |
Jan-Mar08 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
11 |
Mar-08 |
Apr-Jun08 |
4.9 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
12 |
Jun-08 |
Jul-Sep08 |
6.9 |
7.5 |
7.9 |
13 |
Sep-08 |
Oct-Dec08 |
12 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
13 A |
Oct-08 |
Oct-Dec08 |
11.3 |
11.6 |
12.4 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
Jan-Mar09 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
Apr-Jun09 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
6.2 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
July-Sep09 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
Oct-Dec09 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
Jan-Mar10 |
11.1 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
Apr-Jun10 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
11 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
July-Sep10 |
11.1 |
11.4 |
11.9 |
It may be seen from Chart 1 that the short-term (3 months ahead) expectations of inflation lies between current and longterm (one year ahead) inflation and turning points are well-captured. The Chart-2 presents the household inflation expectations along with the official inflation measures based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) – All commodities and Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW). It shows that for a large part of the survey history, the households’ inflation expectations remained between the WPI and CPI-IW inflations. However, the current survey round shows that household inflation expectations and CPI-IW inflation indicator are moving in opposite direction.
![](/documents/87730/28909807/3INFLAES131010_2.gif) |
Table 6: Volatility in Responses in Various Rounds |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Current Inflation rate |
Inflation rate- 3 months ahead |
Inflation rate- 1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
12 |
Jun-08 |
6.9 |
1.4 |
7.5 |
1.4 |
7.9 |
1.5 |
13 |
Sep-08 |
11.3 |
2.0 |
11.6 |
3.2 |
12.4 |
3.6 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
9.3 |
1.9 |
8.9 |
3.5 |
9.6 |
3.9 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
5.2 |
1.9 |
5.3 |
2.6 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
5.8 |
4.4 |
6.3 |
4.6 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
8.2 |
6.0 |
8.7 |
6.0 |
9.2 |
5.9 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
11.1 |
4.9 |
11.6 |
4.9 |
11.9 |
5.1 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
10.3 |
4.4 |
10.6 |
4.7 |
11.0 |
4.8 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
11.1 |
3.6 |
11.4 |
4.1 |
11.9 |
4.2 |
III.5 Volatility in Responses The volatility in responses is measured through standard deviation. Over different rounds, it can be seen from Table 6 that the standard deviation is lower for current inflation rate as compared to three months ahead and one year ahead. The total variability in response for various inflation expectations was elucidated by different classificatory factors (viz., Gender, Age-group, City and Category) of respondents over different rounds. An ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) carried out over different rounds revealed that ‘city’ has been a significant source of variation in all rounds due to variation in consumption baskets across the cities. It is also observed that since the 17th round of the survey (September 2009), there is no significant gender-wise variation in inflation expectations. III.6. Relationship of Current Inflation With Future Inflation It may be seen from the following bubble charts how respondents’ expectation for current verses three months ahead and current verses one year ahead are dispersed. About 52 per cent of the respondents are of the view that current inflation is in double digit. Amongst this, around 92 and 94 per cent respondents expect that it would remain in this band for short term and long-term, respectively.
Table 7: Factors that Explain the Total Variability |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Current |
3 month ahead |
1 year ahead |
12 |
Jun-08 |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age |
13 |
Sep-08 |
City |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age |
14 |
Dec-08 |
City, Gender, Age |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category |
15 |
Mar-09 |
City, Category |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category |
16 |
Jun-09 |
City, Gender, Category, Age |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category, Age |
17 |
Sep-09 |
City, Age |
City, Age |
City, Age |
18 |
Dec-09 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Age |
City |
19 |
Mar-10 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category |
City, Category |
20 |
Jun-10 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category, Age |
III.7. Gender wise – Inflation expectations The cohesiveness is observed more for the current inflation rate as compared to three months and 1 year ahead inflation expectations across the survey rounds (Table 9). It is also observed that in the current round of survey the consonance in responses is less in male respondents as compared to their female counterparts for the current inflation as well as short term inflation rate. III.8. Category Wise Inflation The category of respondents shows their occupation status. The category wise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement III. For the latest survey round (Table-10) daily-wage workers and housewives reported higher inflation expectations and financial sector employees reported lower inflation expectations, which was generally observed in the last few rounds of the survey.
Table 9: Gender wise Inflation Expectations |
Round No. |
Survey Period |
|
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
13 |
Sep-08 |
Male |
11.3 |
1.88 |
11.5 |
3.21 |
12.3 |
3.65 |
|
|
Female |
11.2 |
2.08 |
11.6 |
3.15 |
12.6 |
3.57 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
Male |
9.3 |
1.89 |
8.6 |
3.70 |
9.5 |
3.92 |
|
|
Female |
9.4 |
1.95 |
9.4 |
3.23 |
9.9 |
3.78 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
Male |
5.1 |
1.92 |
5.2 |
2.61 |
6.1 |
2.79 |
|
|
Female |
5.4 |
2.02 |
5.6 |
2.52 |
6.3 |
2.66 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
Male |
5.7 |
4.48 |
6.2 |
4.72 |
6.7 |
4.78 |
|
|
Female |
6.1 |
4.18 |
6.5 |
4.50 |
6.8 |
4.60 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
Male |
8.1 |
6.05 |
8.7 |
6.00 |
9.3 |
5.82 |
|
|
Female |
8.2 |
6.02 |
8.7 |
6.00 |
9.1 |
5.95 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
Male |
11.1 |
4.90 |
11.5 |
4.85 |
11.9 |
4.98 |
|
|
Female |
11.1 |
4.93 |
11.6 |
4.88 |
11.8 |
5.33 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
Male |
10.1 |
4.31 |
10.4 |
4.56 |
11.0 |
4.71 |
|
|
Female |
10.6 |
4.43 |
10.8 |
4.80 |
11.1 |
5.02 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
Male |
11.1 |
3.60 |
11.3 |
4.25 |
12.0 |
4.16 |
|
|
Female |
11.0 |
3.55 |
11.5 |
3.93 |
11.9 |
4.24 |
Table 10: Category wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey Period |
Category of Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Financial Sector |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Employees |
10.3 |
3.38 |
10.4 |
4.25 |
11.2 |
4.19 |
|
Other Employees |
11.1 |
3.58 |
11.5 |
4.15 |
11.8 |
4.30 |
|
Self-Employed |
11.0 |
3.66 |
11.0 |
4.36 |
11.7 |
4.23 |
|
Housewife |
11.3 |
3.58 |
11.9 |
3.82 |
12.3 |
4.14 |
|
Retired persons |
11.3 |
3.65 |
11.8 |
4.18 |
11.9 |
4.34 |
|
Daily-wage Workers |
11.6 |
3.57 |
11.7 |
4.25 |
12.5 |
4.01 |
|
Other Category |
10.3 |
3.28 |
10.8 |
3.86 |
11.6 |
3.84 |
III.9. Age-group-wise Inflation The survey covers only the adult respondents of 18 years or more. The agewise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement IV. Across rounds, no specific pattern is found in age-wise responses. During the current survey round, the respondents whose age is 60 years and above have highest inflation expectations for short-term and long-term. III.10. City-wise Inflation The city-wise responses on inflation rate show significant variations in inflation expectations across cities. The city-wise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement V. It can be seen from this statement that in each survey round, city-wise inflation rates are significantly different due to the divergence in consumption pattern in each city. The latest round of survey (Table 12) shows that the inflation expectation for Bangalore was highest while it was lowest for Chennai. This is generally observed in the last few rounds of the survey (Chart 3). IV. A Bootstrap Confidence Interval for Inflation Expectations In the previous sections, the average rates (mean, median and mode values) of inflation expectations are presented. Using the Bootstrap-resampling method, an interval estimate of the average inflation expectation of households is computed, so as to give a clearer picture of the error associated with the estimates of households’ inflation expectation.
Table 11: Age Group-wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey Period |
Category of Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Up to 25 years |
10.6 |
3.46 |
11.2 |
4.00 |
11.9 |
3.84 |
|
25 to 30 years |
10.7 |
3.57 |
11.1 |
4.03 |
11.6 |
4.33 |
|
30 to 35 years |
10.8 |
3.58 |
11.0 |
4.16 |
11.6 |
4.19 |
|
35 to 40 years |
11.3 |
3.68 |
11.6 |
4.20 |
12.0 |
4.34 |
|
40 to 45 years |
11.0 |
3.56 |
11.2 |
4.10 |
11.8 |
4.13 |
|
45 to 50 years |
11.2 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
4.14 |
12.0 |
4.22 |
|
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
3.60 |
11.7 |
4.22 |
12.4 |
4.13 |
|
55 to 60 years |
11.5 |
3.63 |
11.7 |
4.29 |
12.2 |
4.19 |
|
60 years & above |
11.6 |
3.63 |
12.1 |
4.09 |
12.4 |
4.29 |
Table 12: City wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Guwahati |
10.0 |
2.92 |
11.1 |
2.63 |
12.9 |
2.35 |
|
Patna |
11.9 |
1.89 |
12.7 |
2.07 |
12.9 |
2.04 |
|
Kolkata |
8.9 |
1.57 |
8.4 |
2.85 |
9.2 |
3.24 |
|
Lucknow |
11.8 |
3.55 |
12.9 |
3.26 |
13.0 |
3.15 |
|
Delhi |
10.8 |
4.05 |
11.4 |
4.39 |
12.3 |
4.39 |
|
Jaipur |
13.6 |
2.86 |
14.1 |
3.39 |
15.0 |
2.91 |
|
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
2.24 |
11.2 |
2.79 |
12.1 |
2.01 |
|
Mumbai |
14.2 |
3.24 |
12.2 |
5.91 |
12.6 |
5.67 |
|
Bhopal |
8.9 |
1.15 |
10.2 |
1.93 |
11.4 |
2.92 |
|
Hyderabad |
12.3 |
3.54 |
13.2 |
4.36 |
13.6 |
4.04 |
|
Bangalore |
15.6 |
1.95 |
15.8 |
1.68 |
16.0 |
1.47 |
|
Chennai |
8.0 |
1.37 |
8.4 |
2.22 |
7.7 |
2.73 |
The Bootstrap is a re-sampling method for statistical inference. Bootstrapping is a powerful technique in the present era of high computing, wherein the sampling distribution of a statistic can be obtained without any knowledge of the exact distribution of the population variable under study. Through Bootstrapping, a confidence interval of not only population mean μ but also the population median and other parameters can be obtained. It is commonly used to estimate confidence intervals. Drawing 10,000 resamples using Simple Random Sampling with Replacement from the sample of the Survey; 99 per cent Bootstrap confidence intervals for mean and median have been obtained. The results are presented in the Table 13 for Round 13 to 20. It is observed that the exercise leads to a confidence interval with a small width indicating that the point estimates are quite precise for estimating the population means of households’ expectation of inflation.
![](/documents/87730/28909807/3INFLAES131010_4.gif) |
Table 13: A 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (B C I) Based on 10,000 Resample |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
99% BCI For Mean |
Interval width |
99% BCI For Mean |
Interval width |
99% BCI For Mean |
Interval width |
13 |
Sep-08 |
11.91-12.10 |
0.19 |
12.70-12.92 |
0.22 |
13.34-13.59 |
0.15 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
9.24- 9.40 |
0.16 |
8.77- 9.05 |
0.28 |
9.47- 9.80 |
0.33 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
5.14- 5.31 |
0.17 |
5.21- 5.42 |
0.21 |
6.08- 6.30 |
0.22 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
5.67- 6.02 |
0.35 |
6.11- 6.49 |
0.38 |
6.51- 6.89 |
0.38 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
7.92- 8.40 |
0.48 |
8.44- 8.93 |
0.49 |
9.00- 9.48 |
0.48 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
10.91-11.32 |
0.41 |
11.38-11.77 |
0.39 |
11.63-12.08 |
0.45 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
10.09-10.45 |
0.36 |
10.37-10.76 |
0.39 |
10.83-11.22 |
0.39 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
10.91-11.20 |
0.29 |
11.22-11.55 |
0.33 |
11.75-12.09 |
0.34 |
Statement 1 : Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead |
1 General Prices |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
89.8 |
92.0 |
93.1 |
95.8 |
97.4 |
95.7 |
95.3 |
Price increase more than current rate |
66.4 |
52.9 |
54.9 |
63.5 |
72.2 |
74.6 |
66.9 |
72.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
20.1 |
22.4 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
16.6 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.0 |
16.8 |
14.8 |
8.9 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
No change in prices |
3.4 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
Decline in price |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.2 |
90.6 |
95.6 |
93.7 |
96.3 |
96.3 |
96.5 |
95.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.6 |
59.7 |
64.7 |
62.8 |
69.5 |
68.2 |
62.8 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
18.0 |
15.9 |
18.5 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
18.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.3 |
12.9 |
15.0 |
12.4 |
9.5 |
12.9 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
No change in prices |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
2 Food Prices |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
96.0 |
90.9 |
93.6 |
94.6 |
96.3 |
98.0 |
95.9 |
95.8 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.7 |
53.5 |
58.6 |
64.5 |
76.1 |
81.1 |
70.4 |
74.9 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.8 |
19.7 |
23.3 |
21.5 |
15.0 |
11.7 |
15.5 |
17.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.5 |
17.8 |
11.8 |
8.6 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
10.0 |
3.2 |
No change in prices |
2.6 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
Decline in price |
1.5 |
3.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.5 |
91.4 |
96.6 |
94.7 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
96.8 |
95.6 |
Price increase more than current rate |
72.8 |
60.3 |
66.2 |
63.6 |
71.0 |
72.1 |
65.9 |
72.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
14.0 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.9 |
15.2 |
11.9 |
16.5 |
16.9 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.7 |
13.7 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
10.0 |
12.5 |
14.5 |
5.9 |
No change in prices |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
5.8 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
3 Non-Food Prices |
Round No./survey period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
93.6 |
88.6 |
91.0 |
91.4 |
94.7 |
95.8 |
94.0 |
92.9 |
Price increase more than current rate |
58.0 |
47.5 |
48.6 |
51.2 |
59.3 |
63.1 |
57.4 |
60.1 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.1 |
23.3 |
25.5 |
28.4 |
27.1 |
24.8 |
28.0 |
29.4 |
Price increase less than current rate |
11.5 |
17.8 |
17.0 |
11.8 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
3.4 |
No change in prices |
4.9 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
6.3 |
Decline in price |
1.6 |
4.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
92.9 |
89.3 |
94.6 |
91.9 |
95.2 |
94.6 |
94.7 |
92.8 |
Price increase more than current rate |
61.0 |
54.0 |
57.5 |
53.1 |
59.6 |
60.7 |
53.0 |
59.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.8 |
21.8 |
20.4 |
25.0 |
23.6 |
20.7 |
27.6 |
26.4 |
Price increase less than current rate |
11.1 |
13.5 |
16.7 |
13.8 |
12.1 |
13.2 |
14.1 |
6.7 |
No change in prices |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
7.3 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
Decline in price |
2.3 |
6.6 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
Note: Two Rounds 13 and 13A were conducted in September and October 2008. The results presented in this article for Round 13 pertain to the October 2008 Round as the questionnaire for this and all the subsequent rounds is identical. |
Statement 1: Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead (Concld.) |
4 Prices of Household durables |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
72.4 |
78.2 |
82.5 |
80.0 |
86.8 |
87.7 |
86.4 |
87.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
27.9 |
32.6 |
33.2 |
37.2 |
38.4 |
45.5 |
44.1 |
45.1 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.3 |
24.6 |
24.2 |
26.3 |
30.5 |
23.4 |
27.2 |
30.5 |
Price increase less than current rate |
21.2 |
21.0 |
25.2 |
16.5 |
18.0 |
18.9 |
15.1 |
11.6 |
No change in prices |
14.4 |
12.9 |
14.6 |
15.7 |
11.0 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
Decline in price |
13.4 |
9.0 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
73.1 |
79.1 |
84.6 |
80.4 |
88.7 |
87.8 |
85.2 |
87.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
30.4 |
38.6 |
40.1 |
38.4 |
43.3 |
45.5 |
43.2 |
46.6 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.7 |
21.5 |
22.4 |
24.3 |
28.2 |
22.1 |
25.4 |
30.1 |
Price increase less than current rate |
20.0 |
19.0 |
22.1 |
17.7 |
17.3 |
20.3 |
16.6 |
10.6 |
No change in prices |
13.4 |
12.1 |
11.2 |
16.2 |
9.1 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
8.0 |
Decline in price |
13.5 |
8.8 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5 Housing Prices |
Round No./survey period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
90.9 |
88.4 |
89.8 |
92.4 |
93.8 |
96.1 |
95.2 |
96.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
64.4 |
49.7 |
46.2 |
55.9 |
64.4 |
70.8 |
60.4 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.2 |
20.8 |
26.4 |
25.4 |
22.0 |
19.8 |
25.4 |
21.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.3 |
17.9 |
17.2 |
11.1 |
7.4 |
5.6 |
9.5 |
4.3 |
No change in prices |
6.0 |
6.8 |
8.3 |
6.4 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
Decline in price |
3.2 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
91.4 |
87.0 |
93.0 |
93.0 |
94.9 |
96.4 |
94.1 |
96.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
65.1 |
56.3 |
57.4 |
57.6 |
66.0 |
73.4 |
61.0 |
72.0 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.1 |
20.2 |
20.0 |
22.1 |
21.4 |
15.1 |
21.7 |
19.1 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.2 |
10.5 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
11.4 |
5.0 |
No change in prices |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
2.7 |
Decline in price |
3.5 |
7.6 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
6 Cost of Services |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
89.5 |
86.1 |
87.8 |
87.3 |
92.4 |
91.7 |
89.9 |
94.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.0 |
43.9 |
42.2 |
53.1 |
63.7 |
62.7 |
58.6 |
63.2 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.2 |
26.9 |
29.2 |
22.2 |
22.9 |
21.2 |
23.9 |
26.2 |
Price increase less than current rate |
10.3 |
15.3 |
16.4 |
12.0 |
5.8 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
4.8 |
No change in prices |
7.6 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
11.3 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
Decline in price |
3.0 |
3.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
91.0 |
88.4 |
90.7 |
88.1 |
95.0 |
92.3 |
89.9 |
94.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.2 |
52.1 |
49.2 |
54.4 |
65.6 |
62.9 |
57.2 |
63.2 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.7 |
23.5 |
23.9 |
20.2 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.0 |
24.9 |
Price increase less than current rate |
10.1 |
12.9 |
17.6 |
13.5 |
7.9 |
10.9 |
9.8 |
6.1 |
No change in prices |
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.3 |
10.3 |
4.1 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
4.6 |
Decline in price |
3.3 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
1.2 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation |
Round 13 (September 2008) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
2-3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
4-5 |
5 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
5-6 |
8 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
6-7 |
11 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
19 |
27 |
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
7-8 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
26 |
20 |
13 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
87 |
8-9 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
18 |
58 |
27 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
127 |
9-10 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
6 |
80 |
226 |
99 |
11 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
462 |
10-11 |
38 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
36 |
152 |
339 |
135 |
12 |
19 |
20 |
|
754 |
11-12 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
14 |
182 |
405 |
553 |
105 |
53 |
36 |
1 |
1401 |
12-13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
43 |
126 |
246 |
41 |
20 |
3 |
487 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
52 |
131 |
28 |
10 |
237 |
14-15 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
4 |
54 |
79 |
9 |
151 |
15-16 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
55 |
31 |
101 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
67 |
72 |
Total |
192 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
12 |
34 |
74 |
50 |
203 |
589 |
892 |
837 |
421 |
315 |
245 |
122 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
19 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
1 |
6 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
1 |
5 |
24 |
5 |
16 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
64 |
8 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
31 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
87 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
25 |
7 |
39 |
22 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
127 |
10 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
6 |
13 |
74 |
54 |
122 |
70 |
37 |
19 |
13 |
19 |
462 |
11 |
51 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
7 |
40 |
118 |
102 |
145 |
91 |
80 |
46 |
69 |
754 |
12 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
10 |
15 |
150 |
235 |
182 |
358 |
183 |
85 |
134 |
1401 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
40 |
91 |
70 |
150 |
51 |
75 |
487 |
14 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
36 |
47 |
71 |
70 |
237 |
15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
8 |
22 |
47 |
69 |
151 |
16 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
8 |
15 |
73 |
101 |
17 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
67 |
72 |
Total |
195 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
18 |
35 |
69 |
78 |
153 |
381 |
526 |
503 |
606 |
515 |
331 |
576 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 14 (December 2008) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-6 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
24 |
28 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55 |
6-7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
21 |
57 |
56 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
145 |
7-8 |
56 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
57 |
139 |
172 |
38 |
17 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
482 |
8-9 |
223 |
|
|
|
|
|
43 |
321 |
376 |
478 |
169 |
52 |
14 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1680 |
9-10 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
57 |
172 |
256 |
56 |
34 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
645 |
10-11 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
6 |
25 |
92 |
112 |
35 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
|
317 |
11-12 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
20 |
73 |
77 |
29 |
6 |
|
1 |
233 |
12-13 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
27 |
60 |
58 |
17 |
4 |
|
192 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
13 |
32 |
40 |
13 |
1 |
108 |
14-15 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
10 |
30 |
38 |
4 |
89 |
15-16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
8 |
16 |
14 |
42 |
>= 16 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
8 |
12 |
Total |
407 |
|
|
|
2 |
47 |
185 |
537 |
617 |
718 |
555 |
327 |
233 |
156 |
116 |
72 |
28 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
12 |
36 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55 |
6-7 |
4 |
|
|
|
1 |
8 |
21 |
85 |
17 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
145 |
7-8 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
49 |
81 |
145 |
84 |
44 |
11 |
8 |
2 |
|
1 |
5 |
482 |
8-9 |
194 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
54 |
196 |
323 |
304 |
331 |
158 |
59 |
32 |
15 |
8 |
4 |
1679 |
9-10 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
37 |
43 |
116 |
124 |
113 |
40 |
31 |
30 |
23 |
16 |
645 |
10-11 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
6 |
9 |
17 |
55 |
58 |
70 |
24 |
22 |
14 |
15 |
317 |
11-12 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
4 |
12 |
33 |
45 |
58 |
35 |
22 |
11 |
233 |
12-13 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
21 |
35 |
44 |
42 |
16 |
17 |
192 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
21 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
108 |
14-15 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
28 |
23 |
20 |
89 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
15 |
16 |
42 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
Total |
376 |
|
|
|
2 |
23 |
174 |
412 |
540 |
531 |
572 |
396 |
261 |
223 |
201 |
151 |
137 |
3999 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 15 (March 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
17 |
9 |
16 |
17 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
3-4 |
87 |
20 |
116 |
285 |
405 |
159 |
29 |
10 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1113 |
4-5 |
64 |
7 |
13 |
102 |
245 |
419 |
89 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
954 |
5-6 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
4 |
99 |
201 |
417 |
36 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
861 |
6-7 |
34 |
16 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
72 |
108 |
212 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
473 |
7-8 |
20 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
|
4 |
25 |
72 |
115 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
260 |
8-9 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
2 |
7 |
11 |
28 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
9-10 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
11 |
17 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
41 |
10-11 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
10 |
39 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
85 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
13 |
12-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
13 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
8 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
6 |
|
10 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
6 |
8 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
322 |
77 |
166 |
416 |
758 |
859 |
674 |
351 |
146 |
53 |
41 |
48 |
35 |
15 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
5 |
7 |
23 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
3-4 |
46 |
22 |
63 |
184 |
198 |
205 |
211 |
109 |
31 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
1113 |
4-5 |
43 |
3 |
24 |
75 |
161 |
277 |
215 |
101 |
34 |
4 |
14 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
954 |
5-6 |
39 |
6 |
8 |
38 |
137 |
131 |
197 |
256 |
32 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
861 |
6-7 |
21 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
30 |
82 |
65 |
93 |
131 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
473 |
7-8 |
13 |
|
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
22 |
58 |
73 |
56 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
260 |
8-9 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
14 |
7 |
20 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
|
|
|
71 |
9-10 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
7 |
4 |
17 |
4 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
41 |
10-11 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
11 |
7 |
25 |
16 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
85 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
13 |
12-13 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
3 |
13 |
13-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
6 |
8 |
>= 16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
9 |
11 |
Total |
179 |
44 |
131 |
331 |
541 |
710 |
718 |
629 |
317 |
111 |
86 |
45 |
51 |
31 |
29 |
16 |
31 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 16 (June 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
204 |
96 |
20 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
325 |
1-2 |
122 |
127 |
105 |
39 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
398 |
2-3 |
38 |
21 |
76 |
119 |
87 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
352 |
3-4 |
38 |
3 |
25 |
101 |
351 |
70 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
593 |
4-5 |
31 |
|
2 |
42 |
85 |
246 |
37 |
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
448 |
5-6 |
28 |
|
1 |
1 |
41 |
91 |
311 |
37 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
521 |
6-7 |
13 |
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
50 |
156 |
24 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
270 |
7-8 |
6 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
9 |
27 |
72 |
22 |
8 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
153 |
8-9 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
15 |
31 |
23 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
82 |
9-10 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
18 |
43 |
22 |
8 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
2 |
122 |
10-11 |
8 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
54 |
53 |
65 |
16 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
231 |
11-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
3 |
13 |
12 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
40 |
12-13 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
63 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
6 |
4 |
17 |
9 |
38 |
14-15 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
10 |
31 |
20 |
75 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
7 |
25 |
33 |
>= 16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
239 |
256 |
Total |
515 |
247 |
230 |
306 |
574 |
443 |
421 |
227 |
119 |
87 |
140 |
89 |
111 |
63 |
56 |
69 |
303 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
110 |
125 |
39 |
17 |
22 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
325 |
1-2 |
105 |
121 |
52 |
74 |
31 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
398 |
2-3 |
33 |
21 |
83 |
63 |
80 |
50 |
12 |
7 |
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
352 |
3-4 |
30 |
10 |
41 |
100 |
52 |
265 |
62 |
25 |
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
593 |
4-5 |
28 |
2 |
16 |
62 |
82 |
65 |
138 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
448 |
5-6 |
37 |
|
1 |
27 |
108 |
84 |
54 |
165 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
521 |
6-7 |
12 |
1 |
|
2 |
8 |
33 |
54 |
44 |
90 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
270 |
7-8 |
11 |
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
31 |
50 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
153 |
8-9 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
19 |
19 |
7 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
|
1 |
82 |
9-10 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
14 |
20 |
32 |
12 |
6 |
11 |
2 |
6 |
122 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
4 |
1 |
11 |
54 |
9 |
62 |
27 |
29 |
13 |
11 |
231 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
11 |
3 |
40 |
12-13 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
13 |
11 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
8 |
1 |
7 |
18 |
38 |
14-15 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
17 |
32 |
75 |
15-16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
5 |
24 |
33 |
>= 16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
4 |
240 |
256 |
Total |
396 |
280 |
233 |
346 |
388 |
521 |
335 |
316 |
174 |
122 |
134 |
76 |
112 |
71 |
78 |
71 |
347 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 17 (September 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
223 |
154 |
53 |
7 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
459 |
1-2 |
23 |
63 |
169 |
47 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
328 |
2-3 |
12 |
14 |
39 |
209 |
24 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
314 |
3-4 |
11 |
|
14 |
45 |
268 |
12 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
355 |
4-5 |
27 |
|
|
10 |
42 |
143 |
22 |
7 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
253 |
5-6 |
16 |
|
|
3 |
17 |
44 |
104 |
26 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
214 |
6-7 |
6 |
|
|
|
6 |
9 |
29 |
80 |
41 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
177 |
7-8 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
9 |
5 |
20 |
41 |
24 |
7 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
122 |
8-9 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
14 |
26 |
9 |
|
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
65 |
9-10 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1 |
14 |
33 |
26 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
90 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
|
4 |
39 |
91 |
75 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
244 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
8 |
22 |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
47 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
15 |
37 |
12 |
6 |
9 |
84 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
11 |
18 |
12 |
9 |
52 |
14-15 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
21 |
76 |
45 |
153 |
15-16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
35 |
130 |
175 |
>= 16 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
8 |
841 |
868 |
Total |
375 |
231 |
275 |
321 |
379 |
233 |
176 |
142 |
99 |
79 |
104 |
128 |
132 |
64 |
72 |
149 |
1041 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
162 |
28 |
141 |
42 |
34 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
459 |
1-2 |
12 |
38 |
42 |
102 |
49 |
30 |
21 |
15 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
328 |
2-3 |
13 |
38 |
59 |
23 |
98 |
24 |
10 |
21 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
4 |
5 |
314 |
3-4 |
25 |
5 |
87 |
81 |
16 |
111 |
15 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
355 |
4-5 |
17 |
|
2 |
39 |
60 |
26 |
76 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
253 |
5-6 |
9 |
|
|
3 |
18 |
50 |
34 |
69 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
214 |
6-7 |
5 |
|
|
|
8 |
11 |
31 |
27 |
72 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
177 |
7-8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
8 |
9 |
18 |
22 |
29 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
2 |
122 |
8-9 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
6 |
11 |
8 |
16 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
65 |
9-10 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
10 |
6 |
18 |
20 |
12 |
11 |
5 |
4 |
90 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
40 |
27 |
59 |
40 |
33 |
17 |
17 |
244 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
3 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
47 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
8 |
9 |
25 |
11 |
25 |
84 |
13-14 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
52 |
14-15 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
22 |
24 |
94 |
153 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
4 |
37 |
122 |
175 |
>= 16 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
819 |
868 |
Total |
300 |
109 |
331 |
290 |
283 |
280 |
211 |
182 |
148 |
93 |
107 |
73 |
117 |
92 |
126 |
140 |
1118 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 18 (December 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1-2 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
2-3 |
2 |
6 |
16 |
131 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
171 |
3-4 |
7 |
1 |
14 |
44 |
305 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
395 |
4-5 |
5 |
|
|
2 |
30 |
114 |
47 |
6 |
1 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
208 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
5 |
16 |
67 |
38 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
138 |
6-7 |
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
19 |
46 |
25 |
4 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
105 |
7-8 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
19 |
33 |
29 |
9 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
104 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
21 |
27 |
18 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
|
81 |
9-10 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
26 |
40 |
37 |
19 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
132 |
10-11 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
87 |
182 |
74 |
17 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
415 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
11 |
130 |
55 |
36 |
22 |
13 |
1 |
8 |
282 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
96 |
76 |
34 |
15 |
5 |
9 |
246 |
13-14 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
56 |
56 |
36 |
5 |
7 |
167 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
62 |
98 |
29 |
6 |
199 |
15-16 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
28 |
167 |
7 |
210 |
>= 16 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
1033 |
14 |
1111 |
no idea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
75 |
13 |
41 |
185 |
352 |
161 |
139 |
116 |
91 |
102 |
181 |
364 |
258 |
194 |
200 |
210 |
1248 |
70 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
No idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1-2 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
2-3 |
11 |
58 |
23 |
4 |
61 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
171 |
3-4 |
41 |
11 |
147 |
62 |
14 |
105 |
9 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
395 |
4-5 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
28 |
44 |
20 |
63 |
21 |
10 |
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
208 |
5-6 |
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
4 |
26 |
21 |
31 |
18 |
19 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
138 |
6-7 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
18 |
15 |
25 |
7 |
16 |
7 |
3 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
3 |
105 |
7-8 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
19 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
6 |
104 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
11 |
16 |
21 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
81 |
9-10 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
21 |
23 |
17 |
26 |
20 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
132 |
10-11 |
8 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
75 |
59 |
113 |
55 |
39 |
9 |
24 |
13 |
415 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
6 |
13 |
67 |
26 |
53 |
55 |
33 |
9 |
16 |
282 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
5 |
29 |
72 |
62 |
40 |
17 |
12 |
246 |
13-14 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
19 |
48 |
57 |
28 |
8 |
167 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
2 |
29 |
58 |
94 |
8 |
199 |
15-16 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
23 |
169 |
11 |
210 |
>= 16 |
19 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
20 |
1010 |
28 |
1111 |
no idea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
108 |
81 |
177 |
103 |
131 |
163 |
121 |
96 |
85 |
106 |
192 |
187 |
220 |
233 |
260 |
251 |
1366 |
120 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 19 (March 2010) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
1 |
13 |
17 |
57 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
3-4 |
21 |
1 |
18 |
37 |
132 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
220 |
4-5 |
11 |
|
1 |
7 |
34 |
162 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
239 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
38 |
68 |
31 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
161 |
6-7 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
4 |
39 |
85 |
37 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
189 |
7-8 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
9 |
98 |
99 |
38 |
24 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
14 |
305 |
8-9 |
30 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
42 |
214 |
171 |
66 |
22 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
29 |
606 |
9-10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
57 |
106 |
30 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
18 |
245 |
10-11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
9 |
96 |
230 |
72 |
25 |
5 |
|
3 |
13 |
468 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
27 |
49 |
39 |
14 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
146 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
2 |
1 |
20 |
56 |
40 |
6 |
|
3 |
132 |
13-14 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1 |
2 |
18 |
41 |
32 |
2 |
2 |
107 |
14-15 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
17 |
59 |
9 |
|
93 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27 |
67 |
2 |
102 |
>= 16 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
818 |
3 |
878 |
Total |
169 |
18 |
41 |
102 |
180 |
220 |
137 |
263 |
368 |
294 |
311 |
317 |
174 |
152 |
123 |
128 |
908 |
95 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
5 |
31 |
29 |
|
19 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
3-4 |
3 |
12 |
87 |
64 |
8 |
30 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
220 |
4-5 |
10 |
|
3 |
95 |
58 |
6 |
37 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
5 |
239 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
21 |
37 |
10 |
21 |
17 |
11 |
19 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
161 |
6-7 |
3 |
|
|
|
3 |
3 |
32 |
14 |
50 |
21 |
27 |
17 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
189 |
7-8 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
13 |
80 |
48 |
45 |
38 |
26 |
13 |
5 |
|
|
3 |
17 |
305 |
8-9 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
29 |
8 |
176 |
66 |
132 |
42 |
43 |
12 |
13 |
4 |
6 |
43 |
606 |
9-10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2 |
51 |
45 |
50 |
29 |
12 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
28 |
245 |
10-11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
8 |
91 |
135 |
82 |
53 |
33 |
11 |
15 |
28 |
468 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
29 |
9 |
38 |
31 |
15 |
8 |
9 |
146 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
12 |
11 |
44 |
33 |
20 |
6 |
132 |
13-14 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
16 |
51 |
16 |
3 |
107 |
14-15 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
16 |
24 |
51 |
|
93 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
72 |
7 |
102 |
>= 16 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
5 |
4 |
819 |
6 |
878 |
Total |
141 |
45 |
121 |
164 |
109 |
85 |
132 |
141 |
306 |
214 |
364 |
311 |
203 |
150 |
169 |
163 |
1023 |
159 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Concld.) |
Round 20 (June 2010) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2-3 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
3-4 |
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
14 |
21 |
5 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
49 |
5-6 |
4 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
18 |
46 |
17 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
96 |
6-7 |
9 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
39 |
146 |
19 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
228 |
7-8 |
18 |
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
7 |
76 |
225 |
31 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
378 |
8-9 |
29 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
16 |
231 |
164 |
52 |
20 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
|
5 |
3 |
535 |
9-10 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
16 |
139 |
223 |
104 |
55 |
6 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
580 |
10-11 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
94 |
213 |
80 |
61 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
523 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
5 |
22 |
68 |
49 |
22 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
177 |
12-13 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
26 |
81 |
45 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
186 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
13 |
73 |
18 |
11 |
1 |
119 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
13 |
109 |
39 |
2 |
168 |
15-16 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
30 |
92 |
|
132 |
>= 16 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
741 |
1 |
792 |
Total |
187 |
0 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
49 |
115 |
263 |
497 |
361 |
386 |
372 |
245 |
214 |
169 |
178 |
905 |
24 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2-3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
14 |
3-4 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
19 |
4-5 |
2 |
|
|
|
11 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
3 |
1 |
49 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
19 |
9 |
32 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
3 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
96 |
6-7 |
8 |
|
|
|
2 |
21 |
56 |
13 |
71 |
15 |
25 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
228 |
7-8 |
20 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
51 |
91 |
21 |
96 |
49 |
24 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
378 |
8-9 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
28 |
167 |
37 |
89 |
79 |
50 |
19 |
9 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
535 |
9-10 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
23 |
117 |
67 |
125 |
80 |
59 |
38 |
10 |
13 |
8 |
580 |
10-11 |
26 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
28 |
97 |
87 |
95 |
99 |
38 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
523 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
24 |
23 |
49 |
42 |
16 |
6 |
7 |
177 |
12-13 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
18 |
17 |
68 |
47 |
22 |
7 |
186 |
13-14 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
11 |
42 |
31 |
30 |
2 |
119 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
3 |
9 |
62 |
86 |
5 |
168 |
15-16 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
24 |
96 |
|
132 |
>= 16 |
46 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
733 |
6 |
792 |
Total |
191 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
22 |
54 |
127 |
177 |
296 |
312 |
352 |
357 |
277 |
263 |
258 |
211 |
1020 |
74 |
4000 |
Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey Period |
Category of Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
Fin Sec Employees |
11.2 |
1.84 |
11.6 |
3.14 |
12.4 |
3.62 |
Other Employees |
11.3 |
1.91 |
11.3 |
3.48 |
12.1 |
3.72 |
Self-Employed |
11.3 |
1.86 |
11.6 |
3.13 |
12.3 |
3.84 |
Housewife |
11.3 |
2.05 |
11.8 |
2.97 |
12.8 |
3.45 |
Retired persons |
11.2 |
2.04 |
11.2 |
3.67 |
12.1 |
3.84 |
Daily Workers |
11.2 |
2.23 |
11.7 |
2.84 |
12.5 |
3.49 |
Other Category |
11.3 |
1.65 |
11.5 |
3.18 |
12.5 |
3.27 |
Dec-08 |
Fin Sec Employees |
9.2 |
1.69 |
8.2 |
3.63 |
8.5 |
4.09 |
Other Employees |
9.1 |
1.76 |
8.4 |
3.65 |
9.4 |
3.74 |
Self-Employed |
9.3 |
1.85 |
8.8 |
3.69 |
9.5 |
4.06 |
Housewife |
9.4 |
2.00 |
9.6 |
3.02 |
10.4 |
3.29 |
Retired persons |
9.4 |
1.99 |
8.8 |
3.71 |
9.3 |
4.35 |
Daily Workers |
9.5 |
2.08 |
9.3 |
3.40 |
9.8 |
4.23 |
Other Category |
9.3 |
2.06 |
8.4 |
4.01 |
9.4 |
3.76 |
Mar-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
4.9 |
1.82 |
4.8 |
2.52 |
5.7 |
2.64 |
Other Employees |
5.1 |
1.80 |
5.1 |
2.51 |
6.0 |
2.66 |
Self-Employed |
5.1 |
1.94 |
5.1 |
2.64 |
6.1 |
2.84 |
Housewife |
5.4 |
2.06 |
5.6 |
2.56 |
6.4 |
2.72 |
Retired persons |
5.2 |
1.99 |
5.3 |
2.59 |
6.1 |
2.80 |
Daily Workers |
5.3 |
2.00 |
5.6 |
2.58 |
6.5 |
2.72 |
Other Category |
5.3 |
2.01 |
5.6 |
2.55 |
6.4 |
2.73 |
Jun-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
5.3 |
4.35 |
5.6 |
4.48 |
6.0 |
4.65 |
Other Employees |
5.3 |
4.26 |
5.8 |
4.58 |
6.3 |
4.64 |
Self-Employed |
5.7 |
4.43 |
6.2 |
4.65 |
6.7 |
4.70 |
Housewife |
6.3 |
4.30 |
6.7 |
4.64 |
7.0 |
4.75 |
Retired persons |
6.4 |
4.87 |
6.9 |
5.06 |
7.1 |
5.14 |
Daily Workers |
6.2 |
4.33 |
6.8 |
4.51 |
7.2 |
4.53 |
Other Category |
5.2 |
3.90 |
5.7 |
4.27 |
6.3 |
4.41 |
Sep-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
8.3 |
6.19 |
8.7 |
6.05 |
9.3 |
5.85 |
Other Employees |
8.0 |
6.12 |
8.4 |
6.09 |
9.0 |
5.87 |
Self-Employed |
7.9 |
6.02 |
8.4 |
6.00 |
9.0 |
5.90 |
Housewife |
8.5 |
6.02 |
9.0 |
5.98 |
9.5 |
5.93 |
Retired persons |
8.4 |
6.14 |
9.1 |
6.01 |
9.7 |
5.86 |
Daily Workers |
8.0 |
5.69 |
8.6 |
5.79 |
9.2 |
5.71 |
Other Category |
7.8 |
5.97 |
8.3 |
6.03 |
9.1 |
5.79 |
Dec-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
10.2 |
4.98 |
10.7 |
5.01 |
11.1 |
5.21 |
Other Employees |
10.9 |
4.97 |
11.4 |
4.88 |
11.8 |
5.02 |
Self-Employed |
11.1 |
4.94 |
11.4 |
4.92 |
11.7 |
5.12 |
Housewife |
11.5 |
4.81 |
12.0 |
4.74 |
12.1 |
5.14 |
Retired persons |
11.2 |
5.06 |
11.6 |
4.94 |
11.8 |
5.27 |
Daily Workers |
11.1 |
5.10 |
11.5 |
4.97 |
11.7 |
5.25 |
Other Category |
11.3 |
4.43 |
11.9 |
4.50 |
12.2 |
4.71 |
Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey Period |
Category of Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mar-10 |
Fin Sec Employees |
9.5 |
4.14 |
9.8 |
4.46 |
10.3 |
4.73 |
Other Employees |
9.7 |
4.10 |
10.2 |
4.33 |
10.7 |
4.50 |
Self-Employed |
10.2 |
4.34 |
10.6 |
4.59 |
11.1 |
4.69 |
Housewife |
10.8 |
4.46 |
10.9 |
4.84 |
11.3 |
5.03 |
Retired persons |
10.5 |
4.60 |
10.6 |
4.86 |
10.8 |
5.08 |
Daily Workers |
11.1 |
4.80 |
11.0 |
5.24 |
11.6 |
5.35 |
Other Category |
9.8 |
3.72 |
10.4 |
4.04 |
11.0 |
4.32 |
Jun-10 |
Fin Sec Employees |
10.3 |
3.38 |
10.4 |
4.25 |
11.2 |
4.19 |
Other Employees |
11.1 |
3.58 |
11.5 |
4.15 |
11.8 |
4.30 |
Self-Employed |
11.0 |
3.66 |
11.0 |
4.36 |
11.7 |
4.23 |
Housewife |
11.3 |
3.58 |
11.9 |
3.82 |
12.3 |
4.14 |
Retired persons |
11.3 |
3.65 |
11.8 |
4.18 |
11.9 |
4.34 |
Daily Workers |
11.6 |
3.57 |
11.7 |
4.25 |
12.5 |
4.01 |
Other Category |
10.3 |
3.28 |
10.8 |
3.86 |
11.6 |
3.84 |
Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey Period |
Age Group |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
upto 25 years |
11.4 |
1.93 |
11.9 |
2.83 |
12.8 |
3.23 |
25 to 30 years |
11.3 |
1.97 |
11.8 |
3.01 |
12.8 |
3.62 |
30 to 35 years |
11.3 |
1.91 |
11.6 |
3.11 |
12.5 |
3.49 |
35 to 40 years |
11.4 |
1.93 |
11.9 |
2.97 |
12.6 |
3.60 |
40 to 45 years |
11.2 |
1.94 |
11.5 |
3.20 |
12.3 |
3.71 |
45 to 50 years |
11.0 |
1.91 |
11.4 |
3.14 |
12.3 |
3.45 |
50 to 55 years |
11.0 |
1.84 |
10.8 |
3.57 |
11.6 |
3.72 |
55 to 60 years |
11.2 |
2.04 |
11.3 |
3.63 |
12.3 |
3.53 |
60 years & above |
11.1 |
2.14 |
11.0 |
3.83 |
11.6 |
4.32 |
Dec-08 |
upto 25 years |
9.4 |
2.02 |
9.2 |
3.39 |
10.0 |
3.72 |
25 to 30 years |
9.3 |
1.97 |
9.2 |
3.31 |
9.8 |
3.72 |
30 to 35 years |
9.3 |
1.93 |
9.1 |
3.36 |
9.9 |
3.72 |
35 to 40 years |
9.5 |
2.00 |
9.0 |
3.70 |
9.8 |
3.91 |
40 to 45 years |
9.1 |
1.68 |
8.6 |
3.40 |
9.2 |
3.86 |
45 to 50 years |
9.2 |
1.94 |
8.4 |
3.99 |
9.3 |
3.87 |
50 to 55 years |
9.2 |
1.65 |
8.4 |
3.71 |
9.3 |
3.75 |
55 to 60 years |
9.1 |
1.73 |
8.5 |
3.74 |
8.8 |
4.39 |
60 years & above |
9.4 |
1.92 |
8.8 |
3.68 |
9.4 |
4.18 |
Mar-09 |
upto 25 years |
5.1 |
1.72 |
5.3 |
2.33 |
6.2 |
2.48 |
25 to 30 years |
5.3 |
2.01 |
5.3 |
2.61 |
6.2 |
2.77 |
30 to 35 years |
5.4 |
2.09 |
5.5 |
2.65 |
6.4 |
2.82 |
35 to 40 years |
5.3 |
1.95 |
5.5 |
2.59 |
6.3 |
2.85 |
40 to 45 years |
5.2 |
1.98 |
5.1 |
2.60 |
6.0 |
2.78 |
45 to 50 years |
5.3 |
2.22 |
5.4 |
2.87 |
6.3 |
3.02 |
50 to 55 years |
5.1 |
1.59 |
5.0 |
2.32 |
5.9 |
2.44 |
55 to 60 years |
5.1 |
1.95 |
5.1 |
2.57 |
6.0 |
2.50 |
60 years & above |
5.1 |
1.98 |
5.1 |
2.69 |
6.0 |
2.85 |
Jun-09 |
upto 25 years |
5.9 |
4.26 |
6.5 |
4.46 |
6.9 |
4.57 |
25 to 30 years |
6.0 |
4.18 |
6.6 |
4.40 |
7.0 |
4.50 |
30 to 35 years |
5.9 |
4.20 |
6.4 |
4.45 |
6.8 |
4.54 |
35 to 40 years |
5.9 |
4.40 |
6.3 |
4.66 |
6.7 |
4.73 |
40 to 45 years |
5.9 |
4.51 |
6.4 |
4.86 |
6.8 |
4.87 |
45 to 50 years |
5.0 |
3.98 |
5.4 |
4.35 |
5.8 |
4.60 |
50 to 55 years |
5.8 |
4.68 |
5.9 |
4.94 |
6.1 |
4.88 |
55 to 60 years |
5.3 |
4.38 |
5.6 |
4.66 |
5.8 |
4.59 |
60 years & above |
6.4 |
4.94 |
6.8 |
5.20 |
7.2 |
5.26 |
Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey Period |
Age Group |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-09 |
upto 25 years |
8.4 |
6.05 |
8.9 |
6.08 |
9.4 |
5.82 |
25 to 30 years |
7.8 |
5.90 |
8.4 |
5.82 |
9.1 |
5.72 |
30 to 35 years |
8.1 |
5.91 |
8.6 |
5.90 |
9.0 |
5.88 |
35 to 40 years |
8.0 |
6.05 |
8.5 |
5.97 |
9.2 |
5.85 |
40 to 45 years |
7.7 |
6.02 |
8.2 |
6.03 |
8.8 |
5.95 |
45 to 50 years |
8.1 |
6.21 |
8.7 |
6.16 |
9.0 |
6.06 |
50 to 55 years |
8.8 |
6.04 |
9.0 |
6.09 |
9.6 |
5.92 |
55 to 60 years |
9.1 |
6.16 |
9.7 |
5.95 |
10.0 |
5.78 |
60 years & above |
8.3 |
6.15 |
9.0 |
6.10 |
9.5 |
5.98 |
Dec-09 |
upto 25 years |
11.4 |
4.73 |
11.9 |
4.70 |
12.3 |
4.90 |
25 to 30 years |
10.6 |
5.07 |
11.1 |
4.95 |
11.4 |
5.29 |
30 to 35 years |
11.0 |
4.96 |
11.5 |
4.86 |
11.6 |
5.18 |
35 to 40 years |
10.8 |
5.01 |
11.1 |
4.98 |
11.5 |
5.29 |
40 to 45 years |
11.1 |
5.03 |
11.5 |
5.07 |
11.9 |
5.16 |
45 to 50 years |
11.4 |
4.66 |
11.9 |
4.57 |
12.3 |
4.68 |
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
4.60 |
12.1 |
4.66 |
12.3 |
4.82 |
55 to 60 years |
10.8 |
5.21 |
11.1 |
5.17 |
11.5 |
5.49 |
60 years & above |
12.1 |
4.58 |
12.6 |
4.50 |
12.5 |
4.94 |
Mar-10 |
upto 25 years |
10.1 |
4.07 |
10.6 |
4.37 |
11.2 |
4.51 |
25 to 30 years |
10.0 |
4.46 |
10.4 |
4.62 |
10.9 |
4.81 |
30 to 35 years |
10.2 |
4.38 |
10.5 |
4.70 |
11.0 |
4.87 |
35 to 40 years |
10.4 |
4.33 |
10.6 |
4.73 |
10.8 |
5.01 |
40 to 45 years |
10.2 |
4.53 |
10.3 |
4.91 |
10.9 |
5.00 |
45 to 50 years |
10.8 |
4.52 |
11.1 |
4.72 |
11.4 |
4.92 |
50 to 55 years |
10.4 |
4.25 |
10.8 |
4.57 |
11.2 |
4.70 |
55 to 60 years |
10.0 |
4.38 |
10.3 |
4.76 |
10.9 |
4.97 |
60 years & above |
10.6 |
4.43 |
10.7 |
4.72 |
11.1 |
4.85 |
Jun-10 |
upto 25 years |
10.6 |
3.46 |
11.2 |
4.00 |
11.9 |
3.84 |
25 to 30 years |
10.7 |
3.57 |
11.1 |
4.03 |
11.6 |
4.33 |
30 to 35 years |
10.8 |
3.58 |
11.0 |
4.16 |
11.6 |
4.19 |
35 to 40 years |
11.3 |
3.68 |
11.6 |
4.20 |
12.0 |
4.34 |
40 to 45 years |
11.0 |
3.56 |
11.2 |
4.10 |
11.8 |
4.13 |
45 to 50 years |
11.2 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
4.14 |
12.0 |
4.22 |
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
3.60 |
11.7 |
4.22 |
12.4 |
4.13 |
55 to 60 years |
11.5 |
3.63 |
11.7 |
4.29 |
12.2 |
4.19 |
60 years & above |
11.6 |
3.63 |
12.1 |
4.09 |
12.4 |
4.29 |
Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
Guwahati |
11.7 |
0.48 |
10.6 |
2.79 |
10.8 |
2.06 |
Patna |
9.4 |
1.83 |
10.1 |
1.72 |
10.4 |
1.94 |
Kolkata |
10.8 |
2.66 |
9.0 |
5.44 |
9.9 |
5.45 |
Lucknow |
10.0 |
2.15 |
10.4 |
3.19 |
10.2 |
3.97 |
Delhi |
11.2 |
1.13 |
11.9 |
1.43 |
12.6 |
2.01 |
Jaipur |
12.3 |
1.10 |
13.1 |
1.48 |
13.8 |
1.90 |
Ahmedabad |
11.4 |
1.08 |
13.6 |
2.62 |
14.8 |
3.17 |
Mumbai |
11.4 |
0.93 |
11.9 |
1.47 |
14.2 |
1.48 |
Bhopal |
14.2 |
1.78 |
14.8 |
1.41 |
15.7 |
1.21 |
Hyderabad |
13.3 |
1.48 |
14.1 |
1.51 |
14.7 |
1.79 |
Bangalore |
11.0 |
1.60 |
11.6 |
1.81 |
12.2 |
1.66 |
Chennai |
10.1 |
0.96 |
10.6 |
2.65 |
11.5 |
4.34 |
Dec-08 |
Guwahati |
8.4 |
0.29 |
4.7 |
3.54 |
8.0 |
1.14 |
Patna |
7.8 |
1.17 |
8.7 |
1.29 |
8.5 |
1.63 |
Kolkata |
9.0 |
1.03 |
8.5 |
2.59 |
9.2 |
2.52 |
Lucknow |
8.5 |
0.98 |
6.5 |
3.88 |
6.7 |
3.88 |
Delhi |
8.8 |
1.23 |
9.0 |
2.22 |
9.7 |
2.22 |
Jaipur |
10.5 |
2.24 |
10.7 |
3.10 |
11.3 |
4.20 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
0.90 |
9.5 |
4.37 |
10.6 |
5.83 |
Mumbai |
12.3 |
1.66 |
11.1 |
4.23 |
12.5 |
3.55 |
Bhopal |
8.5 |
0.43 |
9.5 |
1.06 |
10.3 |
1.22 |
Hyderabad |
7.3 |
1.33 |
7.3 |
1.52 |
8.1 |
1.61 |
Bangalore |
10.7 |
2.30 |
11.7 |
2.72 |
13.4 |
2.71 |
Chennai |
8.8 |
0.82 |
8.3 |
3.45 |
7.2 |
4.93 |
Mar-09 |
Guwahati |
4.4 |
0.88 |
4.9 |
1.09 |
5.0 |
1.16 |
Patna |
4.8 |
0.68 |
5.6 |
0.86 |
5.9 |
0.71 |
Kolkata |
4.1 |
1.35 |
3.5 |
2.21 |
4.6 |
2.45 |
Lucknow |
6.1 |
2.60 |
6.6 |
3.11 |
6.9 |
3.05 |
Delhi |
5.3 |
1.75 |
5.9 |
2.35 |
7.2 |
2.47 |
Jaipur |
6.3 |
2.76 |
7.3 |
3.16 |
8.5 |
3.69 |
Ahmedabad |
4.6 |
1.55 |
3.7 |
2.04 |
5.6 |
3.08 |
Mumbai |
5.0 |
1.44 |
4.4 |
1.99 |
5.2 |
2.08 |
Bhopal |
3.6 |
0.42 |
4.0 |
1.21 |
6.1 |
1.47 |
Hyderabad |
6.6 |
2.05 |
7.4 |
2.36 |
8.0 |
2.56 |
Bangalore |
7.1 |
3.20 |
7.0 |
3.52 |
8.2 |
3.39 |
Chennai |
5.6 |
0.72 |
5.4 |
1.87 |
5.4 |
2.03 |
Jun-09 |
Guwahati |
0.7 |
0.42 |
0.8 |
0.48 |
1.3 |
0.62 |
Patna |
10.7 |
2.48 |
11.4 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
3.74 |
Kolkata |
2.7 |
1.82 |
2.4 |
2.08 |
2.8 |
2.35 |
Lucknow |
3.3 |
1.28 |
4.6 |
1.34 |
5.1 |
1.61 |
Delhi |
4.0 |
2.86 |
4.9 |
3.16 |
5.7 |
3.44 |
Jaipur |
7.9 |
4.70 |
8.9 |
4.86 |
9.8 |
5.05 |
Ahmedabad |
11.7 |
3.67 |
11.9 |
4.48 |
12.5 |
4.29 |
Mumbai |
4.9 |
2.18 |
4.8 |
2.67 |
5.0 |
2.72 |
Bhopal |
3.3 |
0.97 |
4.2 |
1.41 |
5.3 |
1.78 |
Hyderabad |
7.1 |
2.56 |
8.2 |
2.87 |
8.8 |
2.87 |
Bangalore |
14.8 |
3.42 |
15.0 |
3.15 |
15.1 |
2.96 |
Chennai |
5.3 |
0.81 |
5.9 |
1.33 |
5.4 |
2.00 |
Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-09 |
Guwahati |
5.7 |
2.93 |
4.6 |
3.49 |
5.1 |
3.18 |
Patna |
13.4 |
2.87 |
14.2 |
2.58 |
14.3 |
2.51 |
Kolkata |
1.4 |
1.90 |
2.1 |
2.31 |
2.9 |
2.48 |
Lucknow |
10.2 |
5.41 |
11.0 |
5.28 |
11.4 |
5.20 |
Delhi |
6.2 |
4.86 |
6.9 |
5.21 |
8.1 |
5.22 |
Jaipur |
11.8 |
4.23 |
12.8 |
4.03 |
13.4 |
4.38 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
4.23 |
10.0 |
4.39 |
10.4 |
4.41 |
Mumbai |
12.1 |
5.46 |
11.9 |
5.82 |
11.9 |
5.60 |
Bhopal |
2.3 |
1.90 |
4.3 |
2.58 |
7.5 |
3.53 |
Hyderabad |
15.6 |
1.56 |
16.1 |
1.02 |
16.2 |
0.92 |
Bangalore |
15.7 |
2.02 |
15.8 |
1.78 |
16.0 |
1.43 |
Chennai |
3.4 |
0.94 |
4.2 |
1.06 |
3.8 |
1.73 |
Dec-09 |
Guwahati |
13.3 |
2.85 |
13.7 |
2.51 |
14.3 |
2.22 |
Patna |
12.3 |
2.41 |
13.0 |
2.55 |
13.3 |
2.57 |
Kolkata |
11.9 |
2.70 |
12.1 |
2.84 |
12.7 |
2.91 |
Lucknow |
6.1 |
3.40 |
7.0 |
3.38 |
7.1 |
3.64 |
Delhi |
11.2 |
4.74 |
11.9 |
4.74 |
12.1 |
5.04 |
Jaipur |
13.2 |
2.96 |
14.2 |
3.03 |
14.7 |
3.60 |
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
3.49 |
10.9 |
3.51 |
11.6 |
2.99 |
Mumbai |
15.3 |
2.71 |
14.2 |
4.83 |
14.8 |
3.92 |
Bhopal |
9.6 |
4.47 |
10.8 |
4.51 |
11.8 |
4.67 |
Hyderabad |
15.2 |
2.62 |
15.5 |
2.33 |
15.7 |
2.05 |
Bangalore |
15.4 |
2.19 |
15.4 |
2.17 |
15.6 |
1.83 |
Chennai |
3.4 |
0.76 |
4.2 |
1.01 |
3.4 |
1.77 |
Mar-10 |
Guwahati |
8.8 |
2.22 |
9.9 |
2.25 |
10.9 |
2.41 |
Patna |
10.7 |
1.30 |
11.5 |
1.42 |
11.6 |
1.47 |
Kolkata |
8.7 |
1.58 |
8.5 |
2.99 |
8.8 |
3.32 |
Lucknow |
9.6 |
3.37 |
10.4 |
3.30 |
10.6 |
3.35 |
Delhi |
10.8 |
3.95 |
11.0 |
4.80 |
12.2 |
4.50 |
Jaipur |
13.7 |
2.58 |
14.4 |
2.45 |
15.3 |
2.38 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
2.86 |
11.1 |
3.03 |
12.2 |
2.29 |
Mumbai |
14.3 |
3.67 |
12.9 |
5.41 |
13.5 |
4.95 |
Bhopal |
8.3 |
3.53 |
9.4 |
3.60 |
10.6 |
3.93 |
Hyderabad |
12.7 |
4.13 |
12.5 |
4.45 |
12.6 |
4.43 |
Bangalore |
15.7 |
2.26 |
15.8 |
2.05 |
15.9 |
1.77 |
Chennai |
3.9 |
0.91 |
4.4 |
1.51 |
3.6 |
1.47 |
Jun-10 |
Guwahati |
10.0 |
2.92 |
11.1 |
2.63 |
12.9 |
2.35 |
Patna |
11.9 |
1.89 |
12.7 |
2.07 |
12.9 |
2.04 |
Kolkata |
8.9 |
1.57 |
8.4 |
2.85 |
9.2 |
3.24 |
Lucknow |
11.8 |
3.55 |
12.9 |
3.26 |
13.0 |
3.15 |
Delhi |
10.8 |
4.05 |
11.4 |
4.39 |
12.3 |
4.39 |
Jaipur |
13.6 |
2.86 |
14.1 |
3.39 |
15.0 |
2.91 |
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
2.24 |
11.2 |
2.79 |
12.1 |
2.01 |
Mumbai |
14.2 |
3.24 |
12.2 |
5.91 |
12.6 |
5.67 |
Bhopal |
8.9 |
1.15 |
10.2 |
1.93 |
11.4 |
2.92 |
Hyderabad |
12.3 |
3.54 |
13.2 |
4.36 |
13.6 |
4.04 |
Bangalore |
15.6 |
1.95 |
15.8 |
1.68 |
16.0 |
1.47 |
Chennai |
8.0 |
1.37 |
8.4 |
2.22 |
7.7 |
2.73 |
![](/documents/87730/28909807/3INFLAES131010_5.gif) |
Appendix I (Contd.) |
Description of Parameters |
Food Products |
(i) |
Cereals (Wheat, Rice, Pulses etc), Fruits, Vegetables, Sugar, Edible oils, Dairy products and bakery products, Tea, coffee |
|
(ii) |
Meat, fish and sea products |
|
(iii) |
Soft drinks carbonated and mineral water, Beverages |
|
(iv) |
Bidi, cigarette and other tobacco products like zarda, pan masala and related products etc. |
Non-Food Products |
(i) |
Clothes and wearing apparels |
|
(ii) |
Pharmaceutical and Medicines, Cleaning and polishing products, Soaps and detergents |
|
(iii) |
Rubber and rubber products, Tyres and tubes |
|
(iv) |
Plastic and plastic products |
|
(v) |
Leather and leather products (footwear, etc.) |
|
(vi) |
Paper and paper products (stationery, etc.) |
|
(vii) |
Petroleum and coal products |
|
(viii) |
Basic chemical and chemical products, Dyes and dye stuff |
|
(ix) |
Basic metal non-metallic mineral products, etc. |
House holds Durables |
(i) |
Audiovisual equipment (Radio, television, video camera telephone microphone, mobile, etc.) |
|
(ii) |
Furniture, Wood and wood products |
|
(iii) |
Washing machines, Air cooler and Air conditioner |
|
(iv) |
Personal computer |
|
(v) |
Watches and clocks, etc. |
Housing |
(i) |
Construction and maintenance of residential/office premises |
|
(ii) |
Site preparation |
Services |
(i) |
Computer-related activities like computer hardware/software consultancy, data processing, computer-related education institute |
|
(ii) |
Health and social work |
|
(iii) |
Banking/postal services |
|
(iv) |
Activities of membership organisations |
|
(v) |
Other business activities like washing, cleaning, hairdressing, courier activities, etc. |
Appendix I (Concld.) |
Code Lists for filling in Respondents’ Codes: |
A. Zone Codes |
Sr.No. |
Zone |
Zone Code |
1 |
Mumbai |
1 |
2 |
Kolkata |
2 |
3 |
Chennai |
3 |
4 |
Delhi |
4 |
B. City Codes |
Zone |
Sr.No |
City Name |
City Code |
Mumbai |
1
|
Mumbai |
600 |
|
2
|
Ahmedabad |
540 |
|
3
|
Bhopal |
700 |
Kolkata |
4
|
Kolkata |
100 |
|
5
|
Guwahati |
010 |
|
6
|
Patna |
060 |
Chennai |
7
|
Chennai |
900 |
|
8
|
Hyderabad |
800 |
|
9
|
Bangalore |
840 |
Delhi |
10
|
Delhi |
290 |
|
11
|
Jaipur |
500 |
|
12
|
Lucknow |
200 |
C. Gender Codes |
Sr.No. |
Gender |
Gender Code |
1 |
Male |
1 |
2 |
Female |
2 |
D. Category Codes |
Sr. No. |
Category of Respondent |
Category Code |
1 |
Financial sector employees |
1 |
2 |
Other employees |
2 |
3 |
Self-employed |
3 |
4 |
Housewife |
4 |
5 |
Retired persons |
5 |
6 |
Daily workers |
6 |
7 |
Other category |
7 |
E. Age Group Codes |
Sr.No. |
Age Group |
Age group code |
1 |
Up to 25 years |
1 |
2 |
25 to 30 years |
2 |
3 |
30 to 35 years |
3 |
4 |
35 to 40 years |
4 |
5 |
40 to 45 years |
5 |
6 |
45 to 50 years |
6 |
7 |
50 to 55 years |
7 |
8 |
55 to 60 years |
8 |
9 |
60 years and above |
9 |
|