This article presents the findings of
Inflation Expectations Survey of
Households for April-June 2010 quarter,
the 20th round in the series. The survey
gives inflation expectations of 4000
households across 12 cities for the next
quarter (July–September 2010) and for
the next year (July 2010-June 2011).
The survey represents the expectation
of inflation for the respondent’s own
basket of consumption. The inflation
rates from this survey thus represent the
inflation expectations of 4000 urban
households based on their individual
consumption basket and, therefore, these
are not to be regarded as predictors of
any official measure of inflation. The
households’ inflation expectations provide
useful directional information on nearterm
inflationary pressures and are also
supplement to other economic indicators
to get a better indication of future
inflation.
The survey findings indicate that
households expect inflation to rise further
by 30 and 80 basis points during next
quarter (11.4 per cent), and, next year
(11.9 per cent), respectively, from the
expected current rate of 11.10 per cent.
Households’ expectations of general price
rise is mainly influenced by movements
in foodgrains’ prices. High price-rise is
expected in food, housing prices and cost
of service. On category-wise inflation
expectations, Housewives and Dailywage
workers are comparatively more
consistent in their inflation expectations.
I. Introduction
Since September 2005, the Bank conducts
a quarterly Inflation Expectations Survey of
Households. The survey seeks qualitative
responses on price changes (general prices
as well as prices of specific product groups)
in the next three months and the next one
year and quantitative responses on current,
three month ahead and one year ahead
inflation rates. While inflation affects
purchasing power, inflation expectations are
what affect people’s behavior in ways that
have a long-term economic impact. Inflation
expectations of households are subjective
assessments and based on their individual
consumption basket and therefore may be
different from the actual wholesale and
consumer inflation numbers released
periodically by the government.
II. Data Coverage & Methodology
The survey schedule that has been
designed for the Inflation Expectations
Survey of Household (IESH) is a single-page
schedule (Appendix 1). It has been organised
into four blocks. The first block seeks
respondents particulars including name,
contact details, gender, age and category
(occupation). The second and third blocks seek
product-wise price expectations for three
months and a year ahead, respectively. The
fourth block collects the rate of inflation of
the respondent for three time points – current,
three months ahead and one year ahead.
II.1 Coverage
The Reserve Bank conducts the survey
in 12 cities every quarter. The major metropolitan cities, viz., Delhi, Kolkata,
Mumbai and Chennai are represented by 500
households each while the eight other cities,
viz., Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ahmedabad,
Patna, Guwahati, Bangalore and Hyderabad
are represented by 250 households each.
The respondents are well-spread across the
cities to provide a good geographical
coverage. The male and female respondents
in the group are usually in the ratio of 3:2.
The category-wise representation of the
respondents is presented in Table 1. The
sample coverage is nearly as per the target
in all rounds.
II.2 Information collected
The price expectations are sought in the
survey for general prices and for five groups
(food products, non-food products, consumer
durables, housing and others). The general
price indicates all the product groups taken
together. The options for responses are
(i) price increase more than current rate,
(ii) price increase similar to current rate,
(iii) price increase lower than current rate,
(iv) no change in prices and (v) decline in
prices. The first three of the five options
pertain to the respondents’ expectations on
the rate of future price increase compared to the current rate. These expectations are
sought from the respondents for three
months ahead as well as a year ahead period.
Table 1: Respondents Profile (Category) :
Share in Total Sample |
Respondents’ Category |
Sample |
Target |
Financial Sector Employees |
9.4 |
10.0 |
Other Employees |
16.7 |
15.0 |
Self-employed |
20.6 |
20.0 |
Housewives |
29.1 |
30.0 |
Retired Persons |
8.9 |
10.0 |
Daily Workers |
8.0 |
10.0 |
Other Category |
7.4 |
5.0 |
Note: Sample proportion above is for the June 2010 survey |
The inflation expectations of the
respondents that represent the year-on-year
changes in prices are collected through
Block 4. The inflation rates are collected in
intervals – the lowest being ‘less than 1 per
cent’ and the highest being ’16 per cent and
above’ with 100 basis point size of all
intermediate classes.
III. Survey Results
The price expectations are collected
through qualitative questions in Block 2 and
3 of the survey schedule.
III.1 General Price Expectations
The survey shows that the percentage of
respondents on general price expectations
for both three months ahead and one year
ahead have been rising since March 2008.
The percentage of respondents who expect
this price increase to be higher than current
rate have also risen consistently from March
2009 to December 2009. Though this
percentage has declined during March 2010,
the same has turned back in the current
survey round (i.e., June 2010) Table 2.
III.2 Product Group-wise Price
Expectations
The product group-wise price
expectations based on Block 3 of the survey
schedule are given in Statement I.
The expectation of price rise in food
products for the July-September 2010 quarter
has decreased marginally but higher
proportion of respondents expect prices to
increase more than the current rate
compared to that in the previous round;
similar trend is observed for the full year July
2010-June 2011. However, the percentage of
respondents expecting price rise in food products are on higher side as compared to
the corresponding period a year ago (Round
16) A similar pattern is also observed for the
non-food product group. For the other
product groups viz., Household durables,
Housing prices and Cost of services, it is
observed that the expectations of price rise
for July-September 2010 quarter and for the
full year July 2010-June 2011 is on the higher
side as compared to previous round of the
survey (Round 19) and the corresponding
period a year ago (Round 16). In fact, share
of households expecting ‘price increase less
than current rate’ has declined for all product
groups.
Table 2: Percentage of Respondents on General Price Expectations |
Round No./survey period → |
Three months ahead (percentage of respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
89.8 |
92.0 |
93.1 |
95.8 |
97.4 |
95.7 |
95.3 |
Price increase more than current rate |
66.4 |
52.9 |
54.9 |
63.5 |
72.2 |
74.6 |
66.9 |
72.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
20.1 |
22.4 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
16.6 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.0 |
16.8 |
14.8 |
8.9 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
No change in prices |
3.4 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
Decline in price |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
Options |
One year ahead (percentage of respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.2 |
90.6 |
95.6 |
93.7 |
96.3 |
96.3 |
96.5 |
95.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.6 |
59.7 |
64.7 |
62.8 |
69.5 |
68.2 |
62.8 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
18.0 |
15.9 |
18.5 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
18.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.3 |
12.9 |
15.0 |
12.4 |
9.5 |
12.9 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
No change in prices |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
III.3 Coherence Between General
Prices and Product Groups’ Prices
To observe how a respondent assigns
priorities to various product groups for
working out price variation in general, an
exercise has been carried out. Under this
exercise, a degree of coherence between
General prices and other prices of product
groups is derived based on the total
percentage of respondents who expects
movements of General price in concurrence
with that of the corresponding product groups.
The degree of coherence about the price
expectations in general for three months
ahead and one year ahead vis-à-vis various
product groups are given in Table 3 and 4.
It is observed that the general price
expectations are more in tune with food
price expectations as compared to other
product groups. This association was lowest
for household durables product group. This
indicates that respondents assign the
highest priority to food prices when they think about the price movements in general.
In the current round of the survey, about
90 per cent of the respondents are
influenced by food prices for arriving at
three months ahead and one year ahead
general inflation. Similarly, about 80 per
cent of the respondents are of the view that
Housing and Cost of Services are influencing
factors for three months ahead inflation
while in case of Household durables it is just
around 63 per cent to 67 per cent.
Table 3 : Percentage of Respondents in
Coherence with General Price Expectations
vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups –
Three Months Ahead Price Rise |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Food |
Non- Food |
House- holds durables |
Hous- ing |
Cost of services |
13 |
Sep-08 |
87.1 |
80.5 |
50.0 |
80.0 |
69.7 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
88.9 |
85.1 |
60.9 |
69.0 |
70.3 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
85.4 |
85.3 |
62.8 |
73.0 |
73.9 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
87.0 |
79.3 |
59.4 |
72.0 |
76.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
89.1 |
81.3 |
56.5 |
78.1 |
82.2 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
88.3 |
83.6 |
62.3 |
82.7 |
79.3 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
87.4 |
81.4 |
66.5 |
78.1 |
76.6 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
89.9 |
82.4 |
63.6 |
80.2 |
80.8 |
III.4 Inflation Expectations
The inflation expectations are collected
through quantitative Block 4 of the survey schedule. The perception of current
inflation rate and expectations of three
months ahead and one year ahead inflation
since Round 5 (September 2006) are shown
in Table-5 and Chart 1. It represents the
average inflation rate of 4,000 respondents
based on individual consumption basket.
The movement of the inflation expectations
shows that the future inflation expectations
are usually higher than the current inflation.
In the current round of the survey (i.e., June
2010), the average rate of inflation
expectations for current, three months
ahead and one year ahead are 11.1 per cent,
11.4 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively,
a little higher than 10.3 per cent, 10.6 per
cent and 11.0 per cent measured in the last
survey round (i.e., March 2010), but are
lower than the peak inflation rates observed
in September 2008. These inflation rates do
not attempt to forecast the quantum of
future inflation, but gives useful inputs on
directional movement of future inflation.
Table 4 : Percentage of Respondents in
Coherence with General Price Expectations
vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups –
One Year Ahead Price Rise |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Food |
Non- Food |
House- holds durables |
Housing |
Cost of services |
13 |
Sep-08 |
89.2 |
78.5 |
49.1 |
80.5 |
72.3 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
91.8 |
88.3 |
63.4 |
70.9 |
74.4 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
89.1 |
88.1 |
65.3 |
79.4 |
74.8 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
89.2 |
82.2 |
61.4 |
76.8 |
78.5 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
91.9 |
85.8 |
65.0 |
78.9 |
82.3 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
91.1 |
88.4 |
69.0 |
82.8 |
79.3 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
89.9 |
83.6 |
67.3 |
79.7 |
76.2 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
91.7 |
83.2 |
67.2 |
79.4 |
81.1 |
Table 5: Households Inflation
Expectations – Current, Three Months Ahead
and One Year Ahead |
Round No. |
Survey Quarter |
Expectation period |
Current |
3 Months ahead |
1 Year ahead |
5 |
Sep-06 |
Oct-Dec06 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
6 |
Dec-06 |
Jan-Mar07 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
7 |
Mar-07 |
Apr-Jun07 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
8 |
Jun-07 |
Jul-Sep07 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
9 |
Sep-07 |
Oct-Dec07 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
6 |
10 |
Dec-07 |
Jan-Mar08 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
5.9 |
11 |
Mar-08 |
Apr-Jun08 |
4.9 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
12 |
Jun-08 |
Jul-Sep08 |
6.9 |
7.5 |
7.9 |
13 |
Sep-08 |
Oct-Dec08 |
12 |
12.8 |
13.5 |
13 A |
Oct-08 |
Oct-Dec08 |
11.3 |
11.6 |
12.4 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
Jan-Mar09 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
Apr-Jun09 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
6.2 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
July-Sep09 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
6.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
Oct-Dec09 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.2 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
Jan-Mar10 |
11.1 |
11.6 |
11.9 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
Apr-Jun10 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
11 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
July-Sep10 |
11.1 |
11.4 |
11.9 |
It may be seen from Chart 1 that the
short-term (3 months ahead) expectations
of inflation lies between current and longterm
(one year ahead) inflation and turning
points are well-captured.
The Chart-2 presents the household
inflation expectations along with the
official inflation measures based on
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) – All
commodities and Consumer Price Index for
Industrial Workers (CPI-IW). It shows that
for a large part of the survey history, the households’ inflation expectations
remained between the WPI and CPI-IW
inflations. However, the current survey
round shows that household inflation
expectations and CPI-IW inflation indicator
are moving in opposite direction.
 |
Table 6: Volatility in Responses in Various Rounds |
Round
No. |
Survey
Quarter |
Current Inflation rate
|
Inflation
rate- 3
months ahead |
Inflation
rate- 1
year ahead |
Mean |
Std.
Dev. |
Mean |
Std.
Dev. |
Mean |
Std.
Dev. |
12 |
Jun-08 |
6.9 |
1.4 |
7.5 |
1.4 |
7.9 |
1.5 |
13 |
Sep-08 |
11.3 |
2.0 |
11.6 |
3.2 |
12.4 |
3.6 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
9.3 |
1.9 |
8.9 |
3.5 |
9.6 |
3.9 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
5.2 |
1.9 |
5.3 |
2.6 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
5.8 |
4.4 |
6.3 |
4.6 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
8.2 |
6.0 |
8.7 |
6.0 |
9.2 |
5.9 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
11.1 |
4.9 |
11.6 |
4.9 |
11.9 |
5.1 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
10.3 |
4.4 |
10.6 |
4.7 |
11.0 |
4.8 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
11.1 |
3.6 |
11.4 |
4.1 |
11.9 |
4.2 |
III.5 Volatility in Responses
The volatility in responses is measured
through standard deviation. Over different
rounds, it can be seen from Table 6 that the
standard deviation is lower for current
inflation rate as compared to three months
ahead and one year ahead.
The total variability in response for
various inflation expectations was
elucidated by different classificatory
factors (viz., Gender, Age-group, City and
Category) of respondents over different
rounds. An ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)
carried out over different rounds revealed
that ‘city’ has been a significant source of
variation in all rounds due to variation in
consumption baskets across the cities. It
is also observed that since the 17th round
of the survey (September 2009), there is no
significant gender-wise variation in
inflation expectations.
III.6. Relationship of Current Inflation
With Future Inflation
It may be seen from the following
bubble charts how respondents’
expectation for current verses three months
ahead and current verses one year ahead
are dispersed. About 52 per cent of the
respondents are of the view that current
inflation is in double digit. Amongst this,
around 92 and 94 per cent respondents
expect that it would remain in this band
for short term and long-term, respectively.
Table 7: Factors that Explain the Total Variability |
Round
No. |
Survey Quarter
|
Current |
3 month ahead |
1 year ahead |
12 |
Jun-08 |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age |
13 |
Sep-08 |
City |
City, Age, Category |
City, Age |
14 |
Dec-08 |
City, Gender, Age |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category |
15 |
Mar-09 |
City, Category |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category |
16 |
Jun-09 |
City, Gender, Category, Age |
City, Gender, Category |
City, Category, Age |
17 |
Sep-09 |
City, Age |
City, Age |
City, Age |
18 |
Dec-09 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Age |
City |
19 |
Mar-10 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category |
City, Category |
20 |
Jun-10 |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category, Age |
City, Category, Age |
III.7. Gender wise – Inflation
expectations
The cohesiveness is observed more for
the current inflation rate as compared to
three months and 1 year ahead inflation
expectations across the survey rounds
(Table 9). It is also observed that in the
current round of survey the consonance in
responses is less in male respondents as
compared to their female counterparts for the current inflation as well as short term
inflation rate.
III.8. Category Wise Inflation
The category of respondents shows their
occupation status. The category wise inflation
expectations since Round 13 are given in
Statement III. For the latest survey round
(Table-10) daily-wage workers and housewives
reported higher inflation expectations and financial sector employees reported lower
inflation expectations, which was generally
observed in the last few rounds of the survey.
Table 9: Gender wise Inflation Expectations |
Round No. |
Survey Period
|
|
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
13 |
Sep-08 |
Male |
11.3 |
1.88 |
11.5 |
3.21 |
12.3 |
3.65 |
|
|
Female |
11.2 |
2.08 |
11.6 |
3.15 |
12.6 |
3.57 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
Male |
9.3 |
1.89 |
8.6 |
3.70 |
9.5 |
3.92 |
|
|
Female |
9.4 |
1.95 |
9.4 |
3.23 |
9.9 |
3.78 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
Male |
5.1 |
1.92 |
5.2 |
2.61 |
6.1 |
2.79 |
|
|
Female |
5.4 |
2.02 |
5.6 |
2.52 |
6.3 |
2.66 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
Male |
5.7 |
4.48 |
6.2 |
4.72 |
6.7 |
4.78 |
|
|
Female |
6.1 |
4.18 |
6.5 |
4.50 |
6.8 |
4.60 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
Male |
8.1 |
6.05 |
8.7 |
6.00 |
9.3 |
5.82 |
|
|
Female |
8.2 |
6.02 |
8.7 |
6.00 |
9.1 |
5.95 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
Male |
11.1 |
4.90 |
11.5 |
4.85 |
11.9 |
4.98 |
|
|
Female |
11.1 |
4.93 |
11.6 |
4.88 |
11.8 |
5.33 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
Male |
10.1 |
4.31 |
10.4 |
4.56 |
11.0 |
4.71 |
|
|
Female |
10.6 |
4.43 |
10.8 |
4.80 |
11.1 |
5.02 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
Male |
11.1 |
3.60 |
11.3 |
4.25 |
12.0 |
4.16 |
|
|
Female |
11.0 |
3.55 |
11.5 |
3.93 |
11.9 |
4.24 |
Table 10: Category wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey Period
|
Category of Respondent
|
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Financial Sector |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Employees |
10.3 |
3.38 |
10.4 |
4.25 |
11.2 |
4.19 |
|
Other Employees |
11.1 |
3.58 |
11.5 |
4.15 |
11.8 |
4.30 |
|
Self-Employed |
11.0 |
3.66 |
11.0 |
4.36 |
11.7 |
4.23 |
|
Housewife |
11.3 |
3.58 |
11.9 |
3.82 |
12.3 |
4.14 |
|
Retired persons |
11.3 |
3.65 |
11.8 |
4.18 |
11.9 |
4.34 |
|
Daily-wage Workers |
11.6 |
3.57 |
11.7 |
4.25 |
12.5 |
4.01 |
|
Other Category |
10.3 |
3.28 |
10.8 |
3.86 |
11.6 |
3.84 |
III.9. Age-group-wise Inflation
The survey covers only the adult
respondents of 18 years or more. The agewise
inflation expectations since Round 13
are given in Statement IV. Across rounds,
no specific pattern is found in age-wise
responses. During the current survey round,
the respondents whose age is 60 years and
above have highest inflation expectations
for short-term and long-term.
III.10. City-wise Inflation
The city-wise responses on inflation rate
show significant variations in inflation expectations across cities. The city-wise
inflation expectations since Round 13 are
given in Statement V. It can be seen from this
statement that in each survey round, city-wise
inflation rates are significantly different due
to the divergence in consumption pattern in
each city. The latest round of survey (Table
12) shows that the inflation expectation for
Bangalore was highest while it was lowest for
Chennai. This is generally observed in the last
few rounds of the survey (Chart 3).
IV. A Bootstrap Confidence Interval
for Inflation Expectations
In the previous sections, the average
rates (mean, median and mode values) of
inflation expectations are presented. Using
the Bootstrap-resampling method, an interval estimate of the average inflation
expectation of households is computed, so
as to give a clearer picture of the error
associated with the estimates of households’
inflation expectation.
Table 11: Age Group-wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey
Period |
Category of
Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Up to 25 years |
10.6 |
3.46 |
11.2 |
4.00 |
11.9 |
3.84 |
|
25 to 30 years |
10.7 |
3.57 |
11.1 |
4.03 |
11.6 |
4.33 |
|
30 to 35 years |
10.8 |
3.58 |
11.0 |
4.16 |
11.6 |
4.19 |
|
35 to 40 years |
11.3 |
3.68 |
11.6 |
4.20 |
12.0 |
4.34 |
|
40 to 45 years |
11.0 |
3.56 |
11.2 |
4.10 |
11.8 |
4.13 |
|
45 to 50 years |
11.2 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
4.14 |
12.0 |
4.22 |
|
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
3.60 |
11.7 |
4.22 |
12.4 |
4.13 |
|
55 to 60 years |
11.5 |
3.63 |
11.7 |
4.29 |
12.2 |
4.19 |
|
60 years & above |
11.6 |
3.63 |
12.1 |
4.09 |
12.4 |
4.29 |
Table 12: City wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey |
Survey
Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
June - 10 |
Guwahati |
10.0 |
2.92 |
11.1 |
2.63 |
12.9 |
2.35 |
|
Patna |
11.9 |
1.89 |
12.7 |
2.07 |
12.9 |
2.04 |
|
Kolkata |
8.9 |
1.57 |
8.4 |
2.85 |
9.2 |
3.24 |
|
Lucknow |
11.8 |
3.55 |
12.9 |
3.26 |
13.0 |
3.15 |
|
Delhi |
10.8 |
4.05 |
11.4 |
4.39 |
12.3 |
4.39 |
|
Jaipur |
13.6 |
2.86 |
14.1 |
3.39 |
15.0 |
2.91 |
|
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
2.24 |
11.2 |
2.79 |
12.1 |
2.01 |
|
Mumbai |
14.2 |
3.24 |
12.2 |
5.91 |
12.6 |
5.67 |
|
Bhopal |
8.9 |
1.15 |
10.2 |
1.93 |
11.4 |
2.92 |
|
Hyderabad |
12.3 |
3.54 |
13.2 |
4.36 |
13.6 |
4.04 |
|
Bangalore |
15.6 |
1.95 |
15.8 |
1.68 |
16.0 |
1.47 |
|
Chennai |
8.0 |
1.37 |
8.4 |
2.22 |
7.7 |
2.73 |
The Bootstrap is a re-sampling method
for statistical inference. Bootstrapping is a
powerful technique in the present era of high
computing, wherein the sampling
distribution of a statistic can be obtained
without any knowledge of the exact distribution of the population variable under
study. Through Bootstrapping, a confidence
interval of not only population mean μ but
also the population median and other
parameters can be obtained. It is commonly
used to estimate confidence intervals.
Drawing 10,000 resamples using Simple
Random Sampling with Replacement from
the sample of the Survey; 99 per cent
Bootstrap confidence intervals for mean and
median have been obtained. The results are presented in the Table 13 for Round 13 to
20. It is observed that the exercise leads to
a confidence interval with a small width indicating that the point estimates are quite
precise for estimating the population means
of households’ expectation of inflation.
 |
Table 13: A 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (B C I) Based on 10,000 Resample |
Round
No. |
Survey
Quarter |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
99% BCI For
Mean |
Interval
width |
99% BCI For
Mean |
Interval
width |
99% BCI For
Mean |
Interval
width |
13 |
Sep-08 |
11.91-12.10 |
0.19 |
12.70-12.92 |
0.22 |
13.34-13.59 |
0.15 |
14 |
Dec-08 |
9.24- 9.40 |
0.16 |
8.77- 9.05 |
0.28 |
9.47- 9.80 |
0.33 |
15 |
Mar-09 |
5.14- 5.31 |
0.17 |
5.21- 5.42 |
0.21 |
6.08- 6.30 |
0.22 |
16 |
Jun-09 |
5.67- 6.02 |
0.35 |
6.11- 6.49 |
0.38 |
6.51- 6.89 |
0.38 |
17 |
Sep-09 |
7.92- 8.40 |
0.48 |
8.44- 8.93 |
0.49 |
9.00- 9.48 |
0.48 |
18 |
Dec-09 |
10.91-11.32 |
0.41 |
11.38-11.77 |
0.39 |
11.63-12.08 |
0.45 |
19 |
Mar-10 |
10.09-10.45 |
0.36 |
10.37-10.76 |
0.39 |
10.83-11.22 |
0.39 |
20 |
Jun-10 |
10.91-11.20 |
0.29 |
11.22-11.55 |
0.33 |
11.75-12.09 |
0.34 |
Statement 1 : Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of
Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead |
1 General Prices |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
95.3 |
89.8 |
92.0 |
93.1 |
95.8 |
97.4 |
95.7 |
95.3 |
Price increase more than current rate |
66.4 |
52.9 |
54.9 |
63.5 |
72.2 |
74.6 |
66.9 |
72.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
19.9 |
20.1 |
22.4 |
20.7 |
18.4 |
16.6 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.0 |
16.8 |
14.8 |
8.9 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
8.8 |
2.6 |
No change in prices |
3.4 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
4.2 |
Decline in price |
1.4 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.2 |
90.6 |
95.6 |
93.7 |
96.3 |
96.3 |
96.5 |
95.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.6 |
59.7 |
64.7 |
62.8 |
69.5 |
68.2 |
62.8 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
16.3 |
18.0 |
15.9 |
18.5 |
17.3 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
18.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
9.3 |
12.9 |
15.0 |
12.4 |
9.5 |
12.9 |
13.9 |
5.7 |
No change in prices |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
3.8 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
6.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
2 Food Prices |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
96.0 |
90.9 |
93.6 |
94.6 |
96.3 |
98.0 |
95.9 |
95.8 |
Price increase more than current rate |
69.7 |
53.5 |
58.6 |
64.5 |
76.1 |
81.1 |
70.4 |
74.9 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
17.8 |
19.7 |
23.3 |
21.5 |
15.0 |
11.7 |
15.5 |
17.7 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.5 |
17.8 |
11.8 |
8.6 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
10.0 |
3.2 |
No change in prices |
2.6 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
1.4 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
Decline in price |
1.5 |
3.8 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
95.5 |
91.4 |
96.6 |
94.7 |
96.2 |
96.5 |
96.8 |
95.6 |
Price increase more than current rate |
72.8 |
60.3 |
66.2 |
63.6 |
71.0 |
72.1 |
65.9 |
72.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
14.0 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.9 |
15.2 |
11.9 |
16.5 |
16.9 |
Price increase less than current rate |
8.7 |
13.7 |
12.4 |
12.2 |
10.0 |
12.5 |
14.5 |
5.9 |
No change in prices |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
3.3 |
Decline in price |
1.8 |
5.8 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
3 Non-Food Prices |
Round No./survey period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
93.6 |
88.6 |
91.0 |
91.4 |
94.7 |
95.8 |
94.0 |
92.9 |
Price increase more than current rate |
58.0 |
47.5 |
48.6 |
51.2 |
59.3 |
63.1 |
57.4 |
60.1 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.1 |
23.3 |
25.5 |
28.4 |
27.1 |
24.8 |
28.0 |
29.4 |
Price increase less than current rate |
11.5 |
17.8 |
17.0 |
11.8 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
8.7 |
3.4 |
No change in prices |
4.9 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
6.3 |
Decline in price |
1.6 |
4.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
92.9 |
89.3 |
94.6 |
91.9 |
95.2 |
94.6 |
94.7 |
92.8 |
Price increase more than current rate |
61.0 |
54.0 |
57.5 |
53.1 |
59.6 |
60.7 |
53.0 |
59.7 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.8 |
21.8 |
20.4 |
25.0 |
23.6 |
20.7 |
27.6 |
26.4 |
Price increase less than current rate |
11.1 |
13.5 |
16.7 |
13.8 |
12.1 |
13.2 |
14.1 |
6.7 |
No change in prices |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
7.3 |
4.0 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
Decline in price |
2.3 |
6.6 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
Note: Two Rounds 13 and 13A were conducted in September and October 2008. The results presented in this article for Round 13 pertain to the October 2008 Round as the questionnaire for this and all the subsequent rounds is identical. |
Statement 1: Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of
Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead (Concld.) |
4 Prices of Household durables |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
72.4 |
78.2 |
82.5 |
80.0 |
86.8 |
87.7 |
86.4 |
87.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
27.9 |
32.6 |
33.2 |
37.2 |
38.4 |
45.5 |
44.1 |
45.1 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
23.3 |
24.6 |
24.2 |
26.3 |
30.5 |
23.4 |
27.2 |
30.5 |
Price increase less than current rate |
21.2 |
21.0 |
25.2 |
16.5 |
18.0 |
18.9 |
15.1 |
11.6 |
No change in prices |
14.4 |
12.9 |
14.6 |
15.7 |
11.0 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
Decline in price |
13.4 |
9.0 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
73.1 |
79.1 |
84.6 |
80.4 |
88.7 |
87.8 |
85.2 |
87.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
30.4 |
38.6 |
40.1 |
38.4 |
43.3 |
45.5 |
43.2 |
46.6 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
22.7 |
21.5 |
22.4 |
24.3 |
28.2 |
22.1 |
25.4 |
30.1 |
Price increase less than current rate |
20.0 |
19.0 |
22.1 |
17.7 |
17.3 |
20.3 |
16.6 |
10.6 |
No change in prices |
13.4 |
12.1 |
11.2 |
16.2 |
9.1 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
8.0 |
Decline in price |
13.5 |
8.8 |
4.2 |
3.5 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5 Housing Prices |
Round No./survey period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
90.9 |
88.4 |
89.8 |
92.4 |
93.8 |
96.1 |
95.2 |
96.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
64.4 |
49.7 |
46.2 |
55.9 |
64.4 |
70.8 |
60.4 |
70.8 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.2 |
20.8 |
26.4 |
25.4 |
22.0 |
19.8 |
25.4 |
21.0 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.3 |
17.9 |
17.2 |
11.1 |
7.4 |
5.6 |
9.5 |
4.3 |
No change in prices |
6.0 |
6.8 |
8.3 |
6.4 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
Decline in price |
3.2 |
4.8 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
91.4 |
87.0 |
93.0 |
93.0 |
94.9 |
96.4 |
94.1 |
96.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
65.1 |
56.3 |
57.4 |
57.6 |
66.0 |
73.4 |
61.0 |
72.0 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.1 |
20.2 |
20.0 |
22.1 |
21.4 |
15.1 |
21.7 |
19.1 |
Price increase less than current rate |
6.2 |
10.5 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
11.4 |
5.0 |
No change in prices |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
2.7 |
Decline in price |
3.5 |
7.6 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
6 Cost of Services |
Round No./Survey Period → |
3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
Options |
Sep-08 |
Dec-08 |
Mar-09 |
Jun-09 |
Sep-09 |
Dec-09 |
Mar-10 |
Jun-10 |
Prices will increase |
89.5 |
86.1 |
87.8 |
87.3 |
92.4 |
91.7 |
89.9 |
94.1 |
Price increase more than current rate |
55.0 |
43.9 |
42.2 |
53.1 |
63.7 |
62.7 |
58.6 |
63.2 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
24.2 |
26.9 |
29.2 |
22.2 |
22.9 |
21.2 |
23.9 |
26.2 |
Price increase less than current rate |
10.3 |
15.3 |
16.4 |
12.0 |
5.8 |
7.8 |
7.5 |
4.8 |
No change in prices |
7.6 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
11.3 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
Decline in price |
3.0 |
3.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
Options |
1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents) |
Prices will increase |
91.0 |
88.4 |
90.7 |
88.1 |
95.0 |
92.3 |
89.9 |
94.2 |
Price increase more than current rate |
60.2 |
52.1 |
49.2 |
54.4 |
65.6 |
62.9 |
57.2 |
63.2 |
Price increase similar to current rate |
20.7 |
23.5 |
23.9 |
20.2 |
21.5 |
18.5 |
23.0 |
24.9 |
Price increase less than current rate |
10.1 |
12.9 |
17.6 |
13.5 |
7.9 |
10.9 |
9.8 |
6.1 |
No change in prices |
5.8 |
6.7 |
7.3 |
10.3 |
4.1 |
6.0 |
6.9 |
4.6 |
Decline in price |
3.3 |
4.9 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
1.2 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation |
Round 13 (September 2008) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
2-3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
3-4 |
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
4-5 |
5 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
5-6 |
8 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
6-7 |
11 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
19 |
27 |
2 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
64 |
7-8 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
26 |
20 |
13 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
87 |
8-9 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
18 |
58 |
27 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
127 |
9-10 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
6 |
80 |
226 |
99 |
11 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
462 |
10-11 |
38 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
36 |
152 |
339 |
135 |
12 |
19 |
20 |
|
754 |
11-12 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
14 |
182 |
405 |
553 |
105 |
53 |
36 |
1 |
1401 |
12-13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
43 |
126 |
246 |
41 |
20 |
3 |
487 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
52 |
131 |
28 |
10 |
237 |
14-15 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
4 |
54 |
79 |
9 |
151 |
15-16 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
55 |
31 |
101 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
67 |
72 |
Total |
192 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
12 |
34 |
74 |
50 |
203 |
589 |
892 |
837 |
421 |
315 |
245 |
122 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8 |
5 |
4 |
|
|
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
19 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
1 |
6 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
28 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
1 |
5 |
24 |
5 |
16 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
64 |
8 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
31 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
87 |
9 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
10 |
25 |
7 |
39 |
22 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
|
|
127 |
10 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
6 |
13 |
74 |
54 |
122 |
70 |
37 |
19 |
13 |
19 |
462 |
11 |
51 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
7 |
40 |
118 |
102 |
145 |
91 |
80 |
46 |
69 |
754 |
12 |
47 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
10 |
15 |
150 |
235 |
182 |
358 |
183 |
85 |
134 |
1401 |
13 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
40 |
91 |
70 |
150 |
51 |
75 |
487 |
14 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
36 |
47 |
71 |
70 |
237 |
15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
8 |
22 |
47 |
69 |
151 |
16 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
8 |
15 |
73 |
101 |
17 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
67 |
72 |
Total |
195 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
18 |
35 |
69 |
78 |
153 |
381 |
526 |
503 |
606 |
515 |
331 |
576 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 14 (December 2008) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate
|
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-6 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
24 |
28 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55 |
6-7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
21 |
57 |
56 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
145 |
7-8 |
56 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
57 |
139 |
172 |
38 |
17 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
482 |
8-9 |
223 |
|
|
|
|
|
43 |
321 |
376 |
478 |
169 |
52 |
14 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1680 |
9-10 |
43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
57 |
172 |
256 |
56 |
34 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
645 |
10-11 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
6 |
25 |
92 |
112 |
35 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
|
317 |
11-12 |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
20 |
73 |
77 |
29 |
6 |
|
1 |
233 |
12-13 |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
27 |
60 |
58 |
17 |
4 |
|
192 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
13 |
32 |
40 |
13 |
1 |
108 |
14-15 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
10 |
30 |
38 |
4 |
89 |
15-16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
8 |
16 |
14 |
42 |
>= 16 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
8 |
12 |
Total |
407 |
|
|
|
2 |
47 |
185 |
537 |
617 |
718 |
555 |
327 |
233 |
156 |
116 |
72 |
28 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5-6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
12 |
36 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55 |
6-7 |
4 |
|
|
|
1 |
8 |
21 |
85 |
17 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
145 |
7-8 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
49 |
81 |
145 |
84 |
44 |
11 |
8 |
2 |
|
1 |
5 |
482 |
8-9 |
194 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
54 |
196 |
323 |
304 |
331 |
158 |
59 |
32 |
15 |
8 |
4 |
1679 |
9-10 |
60 |
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
37 |
43 |
116 |
124 |
113 |
40 |
31 |
30 |
23 |
16 |
645 |
10-11 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
6 |
9 |
17 |
55 |
58 |
70 |
24 |
22 |
14 |
15 |
317 |
11-12 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
4 |
12 |
33 |
45 |
58 |
35 |
22 |
11 |
233 |
12-13 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
21 |
35 |
44 |
42 |
16 |
17 |
192 |
13-14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
4 |
21 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
108 |
14-15 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11 |
28 |
23 |
20 |
89 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
15 |
16 |
42 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
7 |
12 |
Total |
376 |
|
|
|
2 |
23 |
174 |
412 |
540 |
531 |
572 |
396 |
261 |
223 |
201 |
151 |
137 |
3999 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 15 (March 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
17 |
9 |
16 |
17 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
3-4 |
87 |
20 |
116 |
285 |
405 |
159 |
29 |
10 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1113 |
4-5 |
64 |
7 |
13 |
102 |
245 |
419 |
89 |
11 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
954 |
5-6 |
79 |
17 |
3 |
4 |
99 |
201 |
417 |
36 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
861 |
6-7 |
34 |
16 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
72 |
108 |
212 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
473 |
7-8 |
20 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
|
4 |
25 |
72 |
115 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
260 |
8-9 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
2 |
7 |
11 |
28 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
9-10 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
11 |
17 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
41 |
10-11 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
10 |
39 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
85 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
13 |
12-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
13 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
8 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
6 |
|
10 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
6 |
8 |
>= 16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
322 |
77 |
166 |
416 |
758 |
859 |
674 |
351 |
146 |
53 |
41 |
48 |
35 |
15 |
15 |
9 |
15 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate
|
< 1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
5 |
7 |
23 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
71 |
3-4 |
46 |
22 |
63 |
184 |
198 |
205 |
211 |
109 |
31 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
1113 |
4-5 |
43 |
3 |
24 |
75 |
161 |
277 |
215 |
101 |
34 |
4 |
14 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
954 |
5-6 |
39 |
6 |
8 |
38 |
137 |
131 |
197 |
256 |
32 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
861 |
6-7 |
21 |
4 |
6 |
15 |
30 |
82 |
65 |
93 |
131 |
11 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
473 |
7-8 |
13 |
|
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
22 |
58 |
73 |
56 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
|
260 |
8-9 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
14 |
7 |
20 |
3 |
6 |
1 |
|
|
|
71 |
9-10 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
7 |
4 |
17 |
4 |
4 |
|
1 |
|
41 |
10-11 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
11 |
7 |
25 |
16 |
14 |
2 |
5 |
85 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
13 |
12-13 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
3 |
13 |
13-14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
6 |
8 |
>= 16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
9 |
11 |
Total |
179 |
44 |
131 |
331 |
541 |
710 |
718 |
629 |
317 |
111 |
86 |
45 |
51 |
31 |
29 |
16 |
31 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 16 (June 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
204 |
96 |
20 |
3 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
325 |
1-2 |
122 |
127 |
105 |
39 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
398 |
2-3 |
38 |
21 |
76 |
119 |
87 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
352 |
3-4 |
38 |
3 |
25 |
101 |
351 |
70 |
4 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
593 |
4-5 |
31 |
|
2 |
42 |
85 |
246 |
37 |
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
448 |
5-6 |
28 |
|
1 |
1 |
41 |
91 |
311 |
37 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
521 |
6-7 |
13 |
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
16 |
50 |
156 |
24 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
270 |
7-8 |
6 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
9 |
27 |
72 |
22 |
8 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
153 |
8-9 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
15 |
31 |
23 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
82 |
9-10 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
18 |
43 |
22 |
8 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
2 |
122 |
10-11 |
8 |
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
8 |
54 |
53 |
65 |
16 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
231 |
11-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
3 |
13 |
12 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
40 |
12-13 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
5 |
1 |
63 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
6 |
4 |
17 |
9 |
38 |
14-15 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
10 |
31 |
20 |
75 |
15-16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
7 |
25 |
33 |
>= 16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
239 |
256 |
Total |
515 |
247 |
230 |
306 |
574 |
443 |
421 |
227 |
119 |
87 |
140 |
89 |
111 |
63 |
56 |
69 |
303 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
110 |
125 |
39 |
17 |
22 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
325 |
1-2 |
105 |
121 |
52 |
74 |
31 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
398 |
2-3 |
33 |
21 |
83 |
63 |
80 |
50 |
12 |
7 |
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
352 |
3-4 |
30 |
10 |
41 |
100 |
52 |
265 |
62 |
25 |
4 |
2 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
593 |
4-5 |
28 |
2 |
16 |
62 |
82 |
65 |
138 |
35 |
12 |
1 |
4 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
448 |
5-6 |
37 |
|
1 |
27 |
108 |
84 |
54 |
165 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
521 |
6-7 |
12 |
1 |
|
2 |
8 |
33 |
54 |
44 |
90 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
270 |
7-8 |
11 |
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
4 |
20 |
31 |
50 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
153 |
8-9 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
8 |
19 |
19 |
7 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
|
1 |
82 |
9-10 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
14 |
20 |
32 |
12 |
6 |
11 |
2 |
6 |
122 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
4 |
1 |
11 |
54 |
9 |
62 |
27 |
29 |
13 |
11 |
231 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
11 |
3 |
40 |
12-13 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
13 |
11 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
63 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
8 |
1 |
7 |
18 |
38 |
14-15 |
5 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
9 |
17 |
32 |
75 |
15-16 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
5 |
24 |
33 |
>= 16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
4 |
240 |
256 |
Total |
396 |
280 |
233 |
346 |
388 |
521 |
335 |
316 |
174 |
122 |
134 |
76 |
112 |
71 |
78 |
71 |
347 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 17 (September 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
223 |
154 |
53 |
7 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
459 |
1-2 |
23 |
63 |
169 |
47 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
328 |
2-3 |
12 |
14 |
39 |
209 |
24 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
314 |
3-4 |
11 |
|
14 |
45 |
268 |
12 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
355 |
4-5 |
27 |
|
|
10 |
42 |
143 |
22 |
7 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
253 |
5-6 |
16 |
|
|
3 |
17 |
44 |
104 |
26 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
214 |
6-7 |
6 |
|
|
|
6 |
9 |
29 |
80 |
41 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
177 |
7-8 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
9 |
5 |
20 |
41 |
24 |
7 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
122 |
8-9 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
14 |
26 |
9 |
|
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
65 |
9-10 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1 |
14 |
33 |
26 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
90 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
|
4 |
39 |
91 |
75 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
244 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
8 |
22 |
5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
47 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
15 |
37 |
12 |
6 |
9 |
84 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
11 |
18 |
12 |
9 |
52 |
14-15 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
21 |
76 |
45 |
153 |
15-16 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
35 |
130 |
175 |
>= 16 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
8 |
841 |
868 |
Total |
375 |
231 |
275 |
321 |
379 |
233 |
176 |
142 |
99 |
79 |
104 |
128 |
132 |
64 |
72 |
149 |
1041 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
162 |
28 |
141 |
42 |
34 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
459 |
1-2 |
12 |
38 |
42 |
102 |
49 |
30 |
21 |
15 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
|
328 |
2-3 |
13 |
38 |
59 |
23 |
98 |
24 |
10 |
21 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
4 |
5 |
314 |
3-4 |
25 |
5 |
87 |
81 |
16 |
111 |
15 |
5 |
4 |
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
355 |
4-5 |
17 |
|
2 |
39 |
60 |
26 |
76 |
11 |
9 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
253 |
5-6 |
9 |
|
|
3 |
18 |
50 |
34 |
69 |
14 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
214 |
6-7 |
5 |
|
|
|
8 |
11 |
31 |
27 |
72 |
12 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
177 |
7-8 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
8 |
9 |
18 |
22 |
29 |
11 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
|
3 |
2 |
122 |
8-9 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
6 |
11 |
8 |
16 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
65 |
9-10 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
10 |
6 |
18 |
20 |
12 |
11 |
5 |
4 |
90 |
10-11 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
40 |
27 |
59 |
40 |
33 |
17 |
17 |
244 |
11-12 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
4 |
3 |
14 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
47 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
8 |
9 |
25 |
11 |
25 |
84 |
13-14 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
4 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
52 |
14-15 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
22 |
24 |
94 |
153 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
4 |
37 |
122 |
175 |
>= 16 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
7 |
9 |
819 |
868 |
Total |
300 |
109 |
331 |
290 |
283 |
280 |
211 |
182 |
148 |
93 |
107 |
73 |
117 |
92 |
126 |
140 |
1118 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 18 (December 2009) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>=16 |
No idea
|
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1-2 |
2 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
2-3 |
2 |
6 |
16 |
131 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
171 |
3-4 |
7 |
1 |
14 |
44 |
305 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
395 |
4-5 |
5 |
|
|
2 |
30 |
114 |
47 |
6 |
1 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
208 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
5 |
16 |
67 |
38 |
4 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
138 |
6-7 |
2 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
19 |
46 |
25 |
4 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
105 |
7-8 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
19 |
33 |
29 |
9 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
2 |
104 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
21 |
27 |
18 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
|
81 |
9-10 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
26 |
40 |
37 |
19 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
132 |
10-11 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
87 |
182 |
74 |
17 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
415 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
11 |
130 |
55 |
36 |
22 |
13 |
1 |
8 |
282 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
96 |
76 |
34 |
15 |
5 |
9 |
246 |
13-14 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
56 |
56 |
36 |
5 |
7 |
167 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
62 |
98 |
29 |
6 |
199 |
15-16 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
28 |
167 |
7 |
210 |
>= 16 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
7 |
1 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
13 |
1033 |
14 |
1111 |
no idea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
75 |
13 |
41 |
185 |
352 |
161 |
139 |
116 |
91 |
102 |
181 |
364 |
258 |
194 |
200 |
210 |
1248 |
70 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
No idea
|
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1-2 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
22 |
2-3 |
11 |
58 |
23 |
4 |
61 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
1 |
171 |
3-4 |
41 |
11 |
147 |
62 |
14 |
105 |
9 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
395 |
4-5 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
28 |
44 |
20 |
63 |
21 |
10 |
3 |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
208 |
5-6 |
2 |
1 |
|
4 |
4 |
26 |
21 |
31 |
18 |
19 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
|
138 |
6-7 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
18 |
15 |
25 |
7 |
16 |
7 |
3 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
3 |
105 |
7-8 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
19 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
6 |
104 |
8-9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
11 |
16 |
21 |
10 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
81 |
9-10 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
21 |
23 |
17 |
26 |
20 |
11 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
132 |
10-11 |
8 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
13 |
75 |
59 |
113 |
55 |
39 |
9 |
24 |
13 |
415 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
6 |
13 |
67 |
26 |
53 |
55 |
33 |
9 |
16 |
282 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
5 |
29 |
72 |
62 |
40 |
17 |
12 |
246 |
13-14 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
19 |
48 |
57 |
28 |
8 |
167 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
5 |
2 |
29 |
58 |
94 |
8 |
199 |
15-16 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
23 |
169 |
11 |
210 |
>= 16 |
19 |
|
1 |
|
4 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
20 |
1010 |
28 |
1111 |
no idea |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
9 |
11 |
Total |
108 |
81 |
177 |
103 |
131 |
163 |
121 |
96 |
85 |
106 |
192 |
187 |
220 |
233 |
260 |
251 |
1366 |
120 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.) |
Round 19 (March 2010) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
1 |
13 |
17 |
57 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
3-4 |
21 |
1 |
18 |
37 |
132 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
220 |
4-5 |
11 |
|
1 |
7 |
34 |
162 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
239 |
5-6 |
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
38 |
68 |
31 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
4 |
161 |
6-7 |
2 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
4 |
39 |
85 |
37 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
189 |
7-8 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
9 |
98 |
99 |
38 |
24 |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
14 |
305 |
8-9 |
30 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
5 |
42 |
214 |
171 |
66 |
22 |
12 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
29 |
606 |
9-10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
57 |
106 |
30 |
14 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
18 |
245 |
10-11 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
9 |
96 |
230 |
72 |
25 |
5 |
|
3 |
13 |
468 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
27 |
49 |
39 |
14 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
146 |
12-13 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
2 |
1 |
20 |
56 |
40 |
6 |
|
3 |
132 |
13-14 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
1 |
2 |
18 |
41 |
32 |
2 |
2 |
107 |
14-15 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
17 |
59 |
9 |
|
93 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
27 |
67 |
2 |
102 |
>= 16 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
818 |
3 |
878 |
Total |
169 |
18 |
41 |
102 |
180 |
220 |
137 |
263 |
368 |
294 |
311 |
317 |
174 |
152 |
123 |
128 |
908 |
95 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1-2 |
|
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
2-3 |
5 |
31 |
29 |
|
19 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
101 |
3-4 |
3 |
12 |
87 |
64 |
8 |
30 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
220 |
4-5 |
10 |
|
3 |
95 |
58 |
6 |
37 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
5 |
239 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
21 |
37 |
10 |
21 |
17 |
11 |
19 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
161 |
6-7 |
3 |
|
|
|
3 |
3 |
32 |
14 |
50 |
21 |
27 |
17 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
|
3 |
3 |
189 |
7-8 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
13 |
80 |
48 |
45 |
38 |
26 |
13 |
5 |
|
|
3 |
17 |
305 |
8-9 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
29 |
8 |
176 |
66 |
132 |
42 |
43 |
12 |
13 |
4 |
6 |
43 |
606 |
9-10 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2 |
51 |
45 |
50 |
29 |
12 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
28 |
245 |
10-11 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
8 |
91 |
135 |
82 |
53 |
33 |
11 |
15 |
28 |
468 |
11-12 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
29 |
9 |
38 |
31 |
15 |
8 |
9 |
146 |
12-13 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
12 |
11 |
44 |
33 |
20 |
6 |
132 |
13-14 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
11 |
16 |
51 |
16 |
3 |
107 |
14-15 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
16 |
24 |
51 |
|
93 |
15-16 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17 |
72 |
7 |
102 |
>= 16 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
5 |
4 |
819 |
6 |
878 |
Total |
141 |
45 |
121 |
164 |
109 |
85 |
132 |
141 |
306 |
214 |
364 |
311 |
203 |
150 |
169 |
163 |
1023 |
159 |
4000 |
Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Concld.) |
Round 20 (June 2010) |
|
3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2-3 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
3-4 |
|
|
|
3 |
5 |
9 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19 |
4-5 |
|
|
|
2 |
5 |
14 |
21 |
5 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
49 |
5-6 |
4 |
|
|
1 |
2 |
18 |
46 |
17 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
96 |
6-7 |
9 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
39 |
146 |
19 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
228 |
7-8 |
18 |
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
7 |
76 |
225 |
31 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
|
|
|
3 |
2 |
378 |
8-9 |
29 |
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
|
16 |
231 |
164 |
52 |
20 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
|
5 |
3 |
535 |
9-10 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
16 |
139 |
223 |
104 |
55 |
6 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
580 |
10-11 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
94 |
213 |
80 |
61 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
523 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
5 |
22 |
68 |
49 |
22 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
177 |
12-13 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
4 |
26 |
81 |
45 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
186 |
13-14 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
|
13 |
73 |
18 |
11 |
1 |
119 |
14-15 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
1 |
13 |
109 |
39 |
2 |
168 |
15-16 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
30 |
92 |
|
132 |
>= 16 |
48 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
741 |
1 |
792 |
Total |
187 |
0 |
4 |
10 |
21 |
49 |
115 |
263 |
497 |
361 |
386 |
372 |
245 |
214 |
169 |
178 |
905 |
24 |
4000 |
|
1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate |
< 1 |
1-2 |
2-3 |
3-4 |
4-5 |
5-6 |
6-7 |
7-8 |
8-9 |
9-10 |
10-11 |
11-12 |
12-13 |
13-14 |
14-15 |
15-16 |
>= 16 |
no idea |
Total |
Current inflation rate |
< 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0 |
1-2 |
|
|
|
|
3 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
2-3 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
14 |
3-4 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
|
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
19 |
4-5 |
2 |
|
|
|
11 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
3 |
1 |
49 |
5-6 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
1 |
19 |
9 |
32 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
3 |
3 |
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
96 |
6-7 |
8 |
|
|
|
2 |
21 |
56 |
13 |
71 |
15 |
25 |
7 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
228 |
7-8 |
20 |
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
51 |
91 |
21 |
96 |
49 |
24 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
1 |
6 |
6 |
378 |
8-9 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
28 |
167 |
37 |
89 |
79 |
50 |
19 |
9 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
535 |
9-10 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
4 |
23 |
117 |
67 |
125 |
80 |
59 |
38 |
10 |
13 |
8 |
580 |
10-11 |
26 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
4 |
28 |
97 |
87 |
95 |
99 |
38 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
523 |
11-12 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
24 |
23 |
49 |
42 |
16 |
6 |
7 |
177 |
12-13 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
18 |
17 |
68 |
47 |
22 |
7 |
186 |
13-14 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
11 |
42 |
31 |
30 |
2 |
119 |
14-15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3 |
3 |
9 |
62 |
86 |
5 |
168 |
15-16 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2 |
24 |
96 |
|
132 |
>= 16 |
46 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
733 |
6 |
792 |
Total |
191 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
22 |
54 |
127 |
177 |
296 |
312 |
352 |
357 |
277 |
263 |
258 |
211 |
1020 |
74 |
4000 |
Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey
Period |
Category of
Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
Fin Sec Employees |
11.2 |
1.84 |
11.6 |
3.14 |
12.4 |
3.62 |
Other Employees |
11.3 |
1.91 |
11.3 |
3.48 |
12.1 |
3.72 |
Self-Employed |
11.3 |
1.86 |
11.6 |
3.13 |
12.3 |
3.84 |
Housewife |
11.3 |
2.05 |
11.8 |
2.97 |
12.8 |
3.45 |
Retired persons |
11.2 |
2.04 |
11.2 |
3.67 |
12.1 |
3.84 |
Daily Workers |
11.2 |
2.23 |
11.7 |
2.84 |
12.5 |
3.49 |
Other Category |
11.3 |
1.65 |
11.5 |
3.18 |
12.5 |
3.27 |
Dec-08 |
Fin Sec Employees |
9.2 |
1.69 |
8.2 |
3.63 |
8.5 |
4.09 |
Other Employees |
9.1 |
1.76 |
8.4 |
3.65 |
9.4 |
3.74 |
Self-Employed |
9.3 |
1.85 |
8.8 |
3.69 |
9.5 |
4.06 |
Housewife |
9.4 |
2.00 |
9.6 |
3.02 |
10.4 |
3.29 |
Retired persons |
9.4 |
1.99 |
8.8 |
3.71 |
9.3 |
4.35 |
Daily Workers |
9.5 |
2.08 |
9.3 |
3.40 |
9.8 |
4.23 |
Other Category |
9.3 |
2.06 |
8.4 |
4.01 |
9.4 |
3.76 |
Mar-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
4.9 |
1.82 |
4.8 |
2.52 |
5.7 |
2.64 |
Other Employees |
5.1 |
1.80 |
5.1 |
2.51 |
6.0 |
2.66 |
Self-Employed |
5.1 |
1.94 |
5.1 |
2.64 |
6.1 |
2.84 |
Housewife |
5.4 |
2.06 |
5.6 |
2.56 |
6.4 |
2.72 |
Retired persons |
5.2 |
1.99 |
5.3 |
2.59 |
6.1 |
2.80 |
Daily Workers |
5.3 |
2.00 |
5.6 |
2.58 |
6.5 |
2.72 |
Other Category |
5.3 |
2.01 |
5.6 |
2.55 |
6.4 |
2.73 |
Jun-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
5.3 |
4.35 |
5.6 |
4.48 |
6.0 |
4.65 |
Other Employees |
5.3 |
4.26 |
5.8 |
4.58 |
6.3 |
4.64 |
Self-Employed |
5.7 |
4.43 |
6.2 |
4.65 |
6.7 |
4.70 |
Housewife |
6.3 |
4.30 |
6.7 |
4.64 |
7.0 |
4.75 |
Retired persons |
6.4 |
4.87 |
6.9 |
5.06 |
7.1 |
5.14 |
Daily Workers |
6.2 |
4.33 |
6.8 |
4.51 |
7.2 |
4.53 |
Other Category |
5.2 |
3.90 |
5.7 |
4.27 |
6.3 |
4.41 |
Sep-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
8.3 |
6.19 |
8.7 |
6.05 |
9.3 |
5.85 |
Other Employees |
8.0 |
6.12 |
8.4 |
6.09 |
9.0 |
5.87 |
Self-Employed |
7.9 |
6.02 |
8.4 |
6.00 |
9.0 |
5.90 |
Housewife |
8.5 |
6.02 |
9.0 |
5.98 |
9.5 |
5.93 |
Retired persons |
8.4 |
6.14 |
9.1 |
6.01 |
9.7 |
5.86 |
Daily Workers |
8.0 |
5.69 |
8.6 |
5.79 |
9.2 |
5.71 |
Other Category |
7.8 |
5.97 |
8.3 |
6.03 |
9.1 |
5.79 |
Dec-09 |
Fin Sec Employees |
10.2 |
4.98 |
10.7 |
5.01 |
11.1 |
5.21 |
Other Employees |
10.9 |
4.97 |
11.4 |
4.88 |
11.8 |
5.02 |
Self-Employed |
11.1 |
4.94 |
11.4 |
4.92 |
11.7 |
5.12 |
Housewife |
11.5 |
4.81 |
12.0 |
4.74 |
12.1 |
5.14 |
Retired persons |
11.2 |
5.06 |
11.6 |
4.94 |
11.8 |
5.27 |
Daily Workers |
11.1 |
5.10 |
11.5 |
4.97 |
11.7 |
5.25 |
Other Category |
11.3 |
4.43 |
11.9 |
4.50 |
12.2 |
4.71 |
Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey
Period |
Category of
Respondent |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mar-10 |
Fin Sec Employees |
9.5 |
4.14 |
9.8 |
4.46 |
10.3 |
4.73 |
Other Employees |
9.7 |
4.10 |
10.2 |
4.33 |
10.7 |
4.50 |
Self-Employed |
10.2 |
4.34 |
10.6 |
4.59 |
11.1 |
4.69 |
Housewife |
10.8 |
4.46 |
10.9 |
4.84 |
11.3 |
5.03 |
Retired persons |
10.5 |
4.60 |
10.6 |
4.86 |
10.8 |
5.08 |
Daily Workers |
11.1 |
4.80 |
11.0 |
5.24 |
11.6 |
5.35 |
Other Category |
9.8 |
3.72 |
10.4 |
4.04 |
11.0 |
4.32 |
Jun-10 |
Fin Sec Employees |
10.3 |
3.38 |
10.4 |
4.25 |
11.2 |
4.19 |
Other Employees |
11.1 |
3.58 |
11.5 |
4.15 |
11.8 |
4.30 |
Self-Employed |
11.0 |
3.66 |
11.0 |
4.36 |
11.7 |
4.23 |
Housewife |
11.3 |
3.58 |
11.9 |
3.82 |
12.3 |
4.14 |
Retired persons |
11.3 |
3.65 |
11.8 |
4.18 |
11.9 |
4.34 |
Daily Workers |
11.6 |
3.57 |
11.7 |
4.25 |
12.5 |
4.01 |
Other Category |
10.3 |
3.28 |
10.8 |
3.86 |
11.6 |
3.84 |
Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey
Period |
Age Group |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
upto 25 years |
11.4 |
1.93 |
11.9 |
2.83 |
12.8 |
3.23 |
25 to 30 years |
11.3 |
1.97 |
11.8 |
3.01 |
12.8 |
3.62 |
30 to 35 years |
11.3 |
1.91 |
11.6 |
3.11 |
12.5 |
3.49 |
35 to 40 years |
11.4 |
1.93 |
11.9 |
2.97 |
12.6 |
3.60 |
40 to 45 years |
11.2 |
1.94 |
11.5 |
3.20 |
12.3 |
3.71 |
45 to 50 years |
11.0 |
1.91 |
11.4 |
3.14 |
12.3 |
3.45 |
50 to 55 years |
11.0 |
1.84 |
10.8 |
3.57 |
11.6 |
3.72 |
55 to 60 years |
11.2 |
2.04 |
11.3 |
3.63 |
12.3 |
3.53 |
60 years & above |
11.1 |
2.14 |
11.0 |
3.83 |
11.6 |
4.32 |
Dec-08 |
upto 25 years |
9.4 |
2.02 |
9.2 |
3.39 |
10.0 |
3.72 |
25 to 30 years |
9.3 |
1.97 |
9.2 |
3.31 |
9.8 |
3.72 |
30 to 35 years |
9.3 |
1.93 |
9.1 |
3.36 |
9.9 |
3.72 |
35 to 40 years |
9.5 |
2.00 |
9.0 |
3.70 |
9.8 |
3.91 |
40 to 45 years |
9.1 |
1.68 |
8.6 |
3.40 |
9.2 |
3.86 |
45 to 50 years |
9.2 |
1.94 |
8.4 |
3.99 |
9.3 |
3.87 |
50 to 55 years |
9.2 |
1.65 |
8.4 |
3.71 |
9.3 |
3.75 |
55 to 60 years |
9.1 |
1.73 |
8.5 |
3.74 |
8.8 |
4.39 |
60 years & above |
9.4 |
1.92 |
8.8 |
3.68 |
9.4 |
4.18 |
Mar-09 |
upto 25 years |
5.1 |
1.72 |
5.3 |
2.33 |
6.2 |
2.48 |
25 to 30 years |
5.3 |
2.01 |
5.3 |
2.61 |
6.2 |
2.77 |
30 to 35 years |
5.4 |
2.09 |
5.5 |
2.65 |
6.4 |
2.82 |
35 to 40 years |
5.3 |
1.95 |
5.5 |
2.59 |
6.3 |
2.85 |
40 to 45 years |
5.2 |
1.98 |
5.1 |
2.60 |
6.0 |
2.78 |
45 to 50 years |
5.3 |
2.22 |
5.4 |
2.87 |
6.3 |
3.02 |
50 to 55 years |
5.1 |
1.59 |
5.0 |
2.32 |
5.9 |
2.44 |
55 to 60 years |
5.1 |
1.95 |
5.1 |
2.57 |
6.0 |
2.50 |
60 years & above |
5.1 |
1.98 |
5.1 |
2.69 |
6.0 |
2.85 |
Jun-09 |
upto 25 years |
5.9 |
4.26 |
6.5 |
4.46 |
6.9 |
4.57 |
25 to 30 years |
6.0 |
4.18 |
6.6 |
4.40 |
7.0 |
4.50 |
30 to 35 years |
5.9 |
4.20 |
6.4 |
4.45 |
6.8 |
4.54 |
35 to 40 years |
5.9 |
4.40 |
6.3 |
4.66 |
6.7 |
4.73 |
40 to 45 years |
5.9 |
4.51 |
6.4 |
4.86 |
6.8 |
4.87 |
45 to 50 years |
5.0 |
3.98 |
5.4 |
4.35 |
5.8 |
4.60 |
50 to 55 years |
5.8 |
4.68 |
5.9 |
4.94 |
6.1 |
4.88 |
55 to 60 years |
5.3 |
4.38 |
5.6 |
4.66 |
5.8 |
4.59 |
60 years & above |
6.4 |
4.94 |
6.8 |
5.20 |
7.2 |
5.26 |
Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey
Period |
Age Group |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-09 |
upto 25 years |
8.4 |
6.05 |
8.9 |
6.08 |
9.4 |
5.82 |
25 to 30 years |
7.8 |
5.90 |
8.4 |
5.82 |
9.1 |
5.72 |
30 to 35 years |
8.1 |
5.91 |
8.6 |
5.90 |
9.0 |
5.88 |
35 to 40 years |
8.0 |
6.05 |
8.5 |
5.97 |
9.2 |
5.85 |
40 to 45 years |
7.7 |
6.02 |
8.2 |
6.03 |
8.8 |
5.95 |
45 to 50 years |
8.1 |
6.21 |
8.7 |
6.16 |
9.0 |
6.06 |
50 to 55 years |
8.8 |
6.04 |
9.0 |
6.09 |
9.6 |
5.92 |
55 to 60 years |
9.1 |
6.16 |
9.7 |
5.95 |
10.0 |
5.78 |
60 years & above |
8.3 |
6.15 |
9.0 |
6.10 |
9.5 |
5.98 |
Dec-09 |
upto 25 years |
11.4 |
4.73 |
11.9 |
4.70 |
12.3 |
4.90 |
25 to 30 years |
10.6 |
5.07 |
11.1 |
4.95 |
11.4 |
5.29 |
30 to 35 years |
11.0 |
4.96 |
11.5 |
4.86 |
11.6 |
5.18 |
35 to 40 years |
10.8 |
5.01 |
11.1 |
4.98 |
11.5 |
5.29 |
40 to 45 years |
11.1 |
5.03 |
11.5 |
5.07 |
11.9 |
5.16 |
45 to 50 years |
11.4 |
4.66 |
11.9 |
4.57 |
12.3 |
4.68 |
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
4.60 |
12.1 |
4.66 |
12.3 |
4.82 |
55 to 60 years |
10.8 |
5.21 |
11.1 |
5.17 |
11.5 |
5.49 |
60 years & above |
12.1 |
4.58 |
12.6 |
4.50 |
12.5 |
4.94 |
Mar-10 |
upto 25 years |
10.1 |
4.07 |
10.6 |
4.37 |
11.2 |
4.51 |
25 to 30 years |
10.0 |
4.46 |
10.4 |
4.62 |
10.9 |
4.81 |
30 to 35 years |
10.2 |
4.38 |
10.5 |
4.70 |
11.0 |
4.87 |
35 to 40 years |
10.4 |
4.33 |
10.6 |
4.73 |
10.8 |
5.01 |
40 to 45 years |
10.2 |
4.53 |
10.3 |
4.91 |
10.9 |
5.00 |
45 to 50 years |
10.8 |
4.52 |
11.1 |
4.72 |
11.4 |
4.92 |
50 to 55 years |
10.4 |
4.25 |
10.8 |
4.57 |
11.2 |
4.70 |
55 to 60 years |
10.0 |
4.38 |
10.3 |
4.76 |
10.9 |
4.97 |
60 years & above |
10.6 |
4.43 |
10.7 |
4.72 |
11.1 |
4.85 |
Jun-10 |
upto 25 years |
10.6 |
3.46 |
11.2 |
4.00 |
11.9 |
3.84 |
25 to 30 years |
10.7 |
3.57 |
11.1 |
4.03 |
11.6 |
4.33 |
30 to 35 years |
10.8 |
3.58 |
11.0 |
4.16 |
11.6 |
4.19 |
35 to 40 years |
11.3 |
3.68 |
11.6 |
4.20 |
12.0 |
4.34 |
40 to 45 years |
11.0 |
3.56 |
11.2 |
4.10 |
11.8 |
4.13 |
45 to 50 years |
11.2 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
4.14 |
12.0 |
4.22 |
50 to 55 years |
11.6 |
3.60 |
11.7 |
4.22 |
12.4 |
4.13 |
55 to 60 years |
11.5 |
3.63 |
11.7 |
4.29 |
12.2 |
4.19 |
60 years & above |
11.6 |
3.63 |
12.1 |
4.09 |
12.4 |
4.29 |
Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates |
Survey
Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-08 |
Guwahati |
11.7 |
0.48 |
10.6 |
2.79 |
10.8 |
2.06 |
Patna |
9.4 |
1.83 |
10.1 |
1.72 |
10.4 |
1.94 |
Kolkata |
10.8 |
2.66 |
9.0 |
5.44 |
9.9 |
5.45 |
Lucknow |
10.0 |
2.15 |
10.4 |
3.19 |
10.2 |
3.97 |
Delhi |
11.2 |
1.13 |
11.9 |
1.43 |
12.6 |
2.01 |
Jaipur |
12.3 |
1.10 |
13.1 |
1.48 |
13.8 |
1.90 |
Ahmedabad |
11.4 |
1.08 |
13.6 |
2.62 |
14.8 |
3.17 |
Mumbai |
11.4 |
0.93 |
11.9 |
1.47 |
14.2 |
1.48 |
Bhopal |
14.2 |
1.78 |
14.8 |
1.41 |
15.7 |
1.21 |
Hyderabad |
13.3 |
1.48 |
14.1 |
1.51 |
14.7 |
1.79 |
Bangalore |
11.0 |
1.60 |
11.6 |
1.81 |
12.2 |
1.66 |
Chennai |
10.1 |
0.96 |
10.6 |
2.65 |
11.5 |
4.34 |
Dec-08 |
Guwahati |
8.4 |
0.29 |
4.7 |
3.54 |
8.0 |
1.14 |
Patna |
7.8 |
1.17 |
8.7 |
1.29 |
8.5 |
1.63 |
Kolkata |
9.0 |
1.03 |
8.5 |
2.59 |
9.2 |
2.52 |
Lucknow |
8.5 |
0.98 |
6.5 |
3.88 |
6.7 |
3.88 |
Delhi |
8.8 |
1.23 |
9.0 |
2.22 |
9.7 |
2.22 |
Jaipur |
10.5 |
2.24 |
10.7 |
3.10 |
11.3 |
4.20 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
0.90 |
9.5 |
4.37 |
10.6 |
5.83 |
Mumbai |
12.3 |
1.66 |
11.1 |
4.23 |
12.5 |
3.55 |
Bhopal |
8.5 |
0.43 |
9.5 |
1.06 |
10.3 |
1.22 |
Hyderabad |
7.3 |
1.33 |
7.3 |
1.52 |
8.1 |
1.61 |
Bangalore |
10.7 |
2.30 |
11.7 |
2.72 |
13.4 |
2.71 |
Chennai |
8.8 |
0.82 |
8.3 |
3.45 |
7.2 |
4.93 |
Mar-09 |
Guwahati |
4.4 |
0.88 |
4.9 |
1.09 |
5.0 |
1.16 |
Patna |
4.8 |
0.68 |
5.6 |
0.86 |
5.9 |
0.71 |
Kolkata |
4.1 |
1.35 |
3.5 |
2.21 |
4.6 |
2.45 |
Lucknow |
6.1 |
2.60 |
6.6 |
3.11 |
6.9 |
3.05 |
Delhi |
5.3 |
1.75 |
5.9 |
2.35 |
7.2 |
2.47 |
Jaipur |
6.3 |
2.76 |
7.3 |
3.16 |
8.5 |
3.69 |
Ahmedabad |
4.6 |
1.55 |
3.7 |
2.04 |
5.6 |
3.08 |
Mumbai |
5.0 |
1.44 |
4.4 |
1.99 |
5.2 |
2.08 |
Bhopal |
3.6 |
0.42 |
4.0 |
1.21 |
6.1 |
1.47 |
Hyderabad |
6.6 |
2.05 |
7.4 |
2.36 |
8.0 |
2.56 |
Bangalore |
7.1 |
3.20 |
7.0 |
3.52 |
8.2 |
3.39 |
Chennai |
5.6 |
0.72 |
5.4 |
1.87 |
5.4 |
2.03 |
Jun-09 |
Guwahati |
0.7 |
0.42 |
0.8 |
0.48 |
1.3 |
0.62 |
Patna |
10.7 |
2.48 |
11.4 |
3.41 |
11.6 |
3.74 |
Kolkata |
2.7 |
1.82 |
2.4 |
2.08 |
2.8 |
2.35 |
Lucknow |
3.3 |
1.28 |
4.6 |
1.34 |
5.1 |
1.61 |
Delhi |
4.0 |
2.86 |
4.9 |
3.16 |
5.7 |
3.44 |
Jaipur |
7.9 |
4.70 |
8.9 |
4.86 |
9.8 |
5.05 |
Ahmedabad |
11.7 |
3.67 |
11.9 |
4.48 |
12.5 |
4.29 |
Mumbai |
4.9 |
2.18 |
4.8 |
2.67 |
5.0 |
2.72 |
Bhopal |
3.3 |
0.97 |
4.2 |
1.41 |
5.3 |
1.78 |
Hyderabad |
7.1 |
2.56 |
8.2 |
2.87 |
8.8 |
2.87 |
Bangalore |
14.8 |
3.42 |
15.0 |
3.15 |
15.1 |
2.96 |
Chennai |
5.3 |
0.81 |
5.9 |
1.33 |
5.4 |
2.00 |
Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.) |
Survey
Period |
City |
Current |
3 months ahead |
1 year ahead |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Mean |
Std. Dev. |
Sep-09 |
Guwahati |
5.7 |
2.93 |
4.6 |
3.49 |
5.1 |
3.18 |
Patna |
13.4 |
2.87 |
14.2 |
2.58 |
14.3 |
2.51 |
Kolkata |
1.4 |
1.90 |
2.1 |
2.31 |
2.9 |
2.48 |
Lucknow |
10.2 |
5.41 |
11.0 |
5.28 |
11.4 |
5.20 |
Delhi |
6.2 |
4.86 |
6.9 |
5.21 |
8.1 |
5.22 |
Jaipur |
11.8 |
4.23 |
12.8 |
4.03 |
13.4 |
4.38 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
4.23 |
10.0 |
4.39 |
10.4 |
4.41 |
Mumbai |
12.1 |
5.46 |
11.9 |
5.82 |
11.9 |
5.60 |
Bhopal |
2.3 |
1.90 |
4.3 |
2.58 |
7.5 |
3.53 |
Hyderabad |
15.6 |
1.56 |
16.1 |
1.02 |
16.2 |
0.92 |
Bangalore |
15.7 |
2.02 |
15.8 |
1.78 |
16.0 |
1.43 |
Chennai |
3.4 |
0.94 |
4.2 |
1.06 |
3.8 |
1.73 |
Dec-09 |
Guwahati |
13.3 |
2.85 |
13.7 |
2.51 |
14.3 |
2.22 |
Patna |
12.3 |
2.41 |
13.0 |
2.55 |
13.3 |
2.57 |
Kolkata |
11.9 |
2.70 |
12.1 |
2.84 |
12.7 |
2.91 |
Lucknow |
6.1 |
3.40 |
7.0 |
3.38 |
7.1 |
3.64 |
Delhi |
11.2 |
4.74 |
11.9 |
4.74 |
12.1 |
5.04 |
Jaipur |
13.2 |
2.96 |
14.2 |
3.03 |
14.7 |
3.60 |
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
3.49 |
10.9 |
3.51 |
11.6 |
2.99 |
Mumbai |
15.3 |
2.71 |
14.2 |
4.83 |
14.8 |
3.92 |
Bhopal |
9.6 |
4.47 |
10.8 |
4.51 |
11.8 |
4.67 |
Hyderabad |
15.2 |
2.62 |
15.5 |
2.33 |
15.7 |
2.05 |
Bangalore |
15.4 |
2.19 |
15.4 |
2.17 |
15.6 |
1.83 |
Chennai |
3.4 |
0.76 |
4.2 |
1.01 |
3.4 |
1.77 |
Mar-10 |
Guwahati |
8.8 |
2.22 |
9.9 |
2.25 |
10.9 |
2.41 |
Patna |
10.7 |
1.30 |
11.5 |
1.42 |
11.6 |
1.47 |
Kolkata |
8.7 |
1.58 |
8.5 |
2.99 |
8.8 |
3.32 |
Lucknow |
9.6 |
3.37 |
10.4 |
3.30 |
10.6 |
3.35 |
Delhi |
10.8 |
3.95 |
11.0 |
4.80 |
12.2 |
4.50 |
Jaipur |
13.7 |
2.58 |
14.4 |
2.45 |
15.3 |
2.38 |
Ahmedabad |
9.4 |
2.86 |
11.1 |
3.03 |
12.2 |
2.29 |
Mumbai |
14.3 |
3.67 |
12.9 |
5.41 |
13.5 |
4.95 |
Bhopal |
8.3 |
3.53 |
9.4 |
3.60 |
10.6 |
3.93 |
Hyderabad |
12.7 |
4.13 |
12.5 |
4.45 |
12.6 |
4.43 |
Bangalore |
15.7 |
2.26 |
15.8 |
2.05 |
15.9 |
1.77 |
Chennai |
3.9 |
0.91 |
4.4 |
1.51 |
3.6 |
1.47 |
Jun-10 |
Guwahati |
10.0 |
2.92 |
11.1 |
2.63 |
12.9 |
2.35 |
Patna |
11.9 |
1.89 |
12.7 |
2.07 |
12.9 |
2.04 |
Kolkata |
8.9 |
1.57 |
8.4 |
2.85 |
9.2 |
3.24 |
Lucknow |
11.8 |
3.55 |
12.9 |
3.26 |
13.0 |
3.15 |
Delhi |
10.8 |
4.05 |
11.4 |
4.39 |
12.3 |
4.39 |
Jaipur |
13.6 |
2.86 |
14.1 |
3.39 |
15.0 |
2.91 |
Ahmedabad |
9.1 |
2.24 |
11.2 |
2.79 |
12.1 |
2.01 |
Mumbai |
14.2 |
3.24 |
12.2 |
5.91 |
12.6 |
5.67 |
Bhopal |
8.9 |
1.15 |
10.2 |
1.93 |
11.4 |
2.92 |
Hyderabad |
12.3 |
3.54 |
13.2 |
4.36 |
13.6 |
4.04 |
Bangalore |
15.6 |
1.95 |
15.8 |
1.68 |
16.0 |
1.47 |
Chennai |
8.0 |
1.37 |
8.4 |
2.22 |
7.7 |
2.73 |
 |
Appendix I (Contd.) |
Description of Parameters |
Food Products |
(i) |
Cereals (Wheat, Rice, Pulses etc), Fruits, Vegetables, Sugar, Edible oils, Dairy products and bakery products, Tea, coffee |
|
(ii) |
Meat, fish and sea products |
|
(iii) |
Soft drinks carbonated and mineral water, Beverages |
|
(iv) |
Bidi, cigarette and other tobacco products like zarda, pan masala and related products etc. |
Non-Food Products |
(i) |
Clothes and wearing apparels |
|
(ii) |
Pharmaceutical and Medicines, Cleaning and polishing products, Soaps and detergents |
|
(iii) |
Rubber and rubber products, Tyres and tubes |
|
(iv) |
Plastic and plastic products |
|
(v) |
Leather and leather products (footwear, etc.) |
|
(vi) |
Paper and paper products (stationery, etc.) |
|
(vii) |
Petroleum and coal products |
|
(viii) |
Basic chemical and chemical products, Dyes and dye stuff |
|
(ix) |
Basic metal non-metallic mineral products, etc. |
House holds Durables |
(i) |
Audiovisual equipment (Radio, television, video camera telephone microphone, mobile, etc.) |
|
(ii) |
Furniture, Wood and wood products |
|
(iii) |
Washing machines, Air cooler and Air conditioner |
|
(iv) |
Personal computer |
|
(v) |
Watches and clocks, etc. |
Housing |
(i) |
Construction and maintenance of residential/office premises |
|
(ii) |
Site preparation |
Services |
(i) |
Computer-related activities like computer hardware/software consultancy, data processing, computer-related education institute |
|
(ii) |
Health and social work |
|
(iii) |
Banking/postal services |
|
(iv) |
Activities of membership organisations |
|
(v) |
Other business activities like washing, cleaning, hairdressing, courier activities, etc. |
Appendix I (Concld.) |
Code Lists for filling in Respondents’ Codes: |
A. Zone Codes |
Sr.No. |
Zone |
Zone Code |
1 |
Mumbai |
1 |
2 |
Kolkata |
2 |
3 |
Chennai |
3 |
4 |
Delhi |
4 |
B. City Codes |
Zone |
Sr.No |
City Name |
City Code |
Mumbai |
1 |
Mumbai |
600 |
|
2 |
Ahmedabad |
540 |
|
3 |
Bhopal |
700 |
Kolkata |
4 |
Kolkata |
100 |
|
5 |
Guwahati |
010 |
|
6 |
Patna |
060 |
Chennai |
7 |
Chennai |
900 |
|
8 |
Hyderabad |
800 |
|
9 |
Bangalore |
840 |
Delhi |
10 |
Delhi |
290 |
|
11 |
Jaipur |
500 |
|
12 |
Lucknow |
200 |
C. Gender Codes |
Sr.No. |
Gender |
Gender Code |
1 |
Male |
1 |
2 |
Female |
2 |
D. Category Codes |
Sr. No. |
Category of Respondent |
Category Code |
1 |
Financial sector employees |
1 |
2 |
Other employees |
2 |
3 |
Self-employed |
3 |
4 |
Housewife |
4 |
5 |
Retired persons |
5 |
6 |
Daily workers |
6 |
7 |
Other category |
7 |
E. Age Group Codes |
Sr.No. |
Age Group |
Age group code |
1 |
Up to 25 years |
1 |
2 |
25 to 30 years |
2 |
3 |
30 to 35 years |
3 |
4 |
35 to 40 years |
4 |
5 |
40 to 45 years |
5 |
6 |
45 to 50 years |
6 |
7 |
50 to 55 years |
7 |
8 |
55 to 60 years |
8 |
9 |
60 years and above |
9 |
|