RbiSearchHeader

Press escape key to go back

Past Searches

Theme
Theme
Text Size
Text Size
S2

RbiAnnouncementWeb

RBI Announcements
RBI Announcements

Asset Publisher

83643723

Inflation Expectations Survey of Households : June 2010 (Round 20)*

This article presents the findings of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for April-June 2010 quarter, the 20th round in the series. The survey gives inflation expectations of 4000 households across 12 cities for the next quarter (July–September 2010) and for the next year (July 2010-June 2011).

The survey represents the expectation of inflation for the respondent’s own basket of consumption. The inflation rates from this survey thus represent the inflation expectations of 4000 urban households based on their individual consumption basket and, therefore, these are not to be regarded as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on nearterm inflationary pressures and are also supplement to other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation.

The survey findings indicate that households expect inflation to rise further by 30 and 80 basis points during next quarter (11.4 per cent), and, next year (11.9 per cent), respectively, from the expected current rate of 11.10 per cent. Households’ expectations of general price rise is mainly influenced by movements in foodgrains’ prices. High price-rise is expected in food, housing prices and cost of service. On category-wise inflation expectations, Housewives and Dailywage workers are comparatively more consistent in their inflation expectations.

I. Introduction

Since September 2005, the Bank conducts a quarterly Inflation Expectations Survey of Households. The survey seeks qualitative responses on price changes (general prices as well as prices of specific product groups) in the next three months and the next one year and quantitative responses on current, three month ahead and one year ahead inflation rates. While inflation affects purchasing power, inflation expectations are what affect people’s behavior in ways that have a long-term economic impact. Inflation expectations of households are subjective assessments and based on their individual consumption basket and therefore may be different from the actual wholesale and consumer inflation numbers released periodically by the government.

II. Data Coverage & Methodology

The survey schedule that has been designed for the Inflation Expectations Survey of Household (IESH) is a single-page schedule (Appendix 1). It has been organised into four blocks. The first block seeks respondents particulars including name, contact details, gender, age and category (occupation). The second and third blocks seek product-wise price expectations for three months and a year ahead, respectively. The fourth block collects the rate of inflation of the respondent for three time points – current, three months ahead and one year ahead.

II.1 Coverage

The Reserve Bank conducts the survey in 12 cities every quarter. The major metropolitan cities, viz., Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai are represented by 500 households each while the eight other cities, viz., Jaipur, Lucknow, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Patna, Guwahati, Bangalore and Hyderabad are represented by 250 households each. The respondents are well-spread across the cities to provide a good geographical coverage. The male and female respondents in the group are usually in the ratio of 3:2. The category-wise representation of the respondents is presented in Table 1. The sample coverage is nearly as per the target in all rounds.

II.2 Information collected

The price expectations are sought in the survey for general prices and for five groups (food products, non-food products, consumer durables, housing and others). The general price indicates all the product groups taken together. The options for responses are (i) price increase more than current rate, (ii) price increase similar to current rate, (iii) price increase lower than current rate, (iv) no change in prices and (v) decline in prices. The first three of the five options pertain to the respondents’ expectations on the rate of future price increase compared to the current rate. These expectations are sought from the respondents for three months ahead as well as a year ahead period.

Table 1: Respondents Profile (Category) : Share in Total Sample

Respondents’ Category

Sample

Target

Financial Sector Employees

9.4

10.0

Other Employees

16.7

15.0

Self-employed

20.6

20.0

Housewives

29.1

30.0

Retired Persons

8.9

10.0

Daily Workers

8.0

10.0

Other Category

7.4

5.0

Note: Sample proportion above is for the June 2010 survey

The inflation expectations of the respondents that represent the year-on-year changes in prices are collected through Block 4. The inflation rates are collected in intervals – the lowest being ‘less than 1 per cent’ and the highest being ’16 per cent and above’ with 100 basis point size of all intermediate classes.

III. Survey Results

The price expectations are collected through qualitative questions in Block 2 and 3 of the survey schedule.

III.1 General Price Expectations

The survey shows that the percentage of respondents on general price expectations for both three months ahead and one year ahead have been rising since March 2008.

The percentage of respondents who expect this price increase to be higher than current rate have also risen consistently from March 2009 to December 2009. Though this percentage has declined during March 2010, the same has turned back in the current survey round (i.e., June 2010) Table 2.

III.2 Product Group-wise Price Expectations

The product group-wise price expectations based on Block 3 of the survey schedule are given in Statement I.

The expectation of price rise in food products for the July-September 2010 quarter has decreased marginally but higher proportion of respondents expect prices to increase more than the current rate compared to that in the previous round; similar trend is observed for the full year July 2010-June 2011. However, the percentage of respondents expecting price rise in food products are on higher side as compared to the corresponding period a year ago (Round 16) A similar pattern is also observed for the non-food product group. For the other product groups viz., Household durables, Housing prices and Cost of services, it is observed that the expectations of price rise for July-September 2010 quarter and for the full year July 2010-June 2011 is on the higher side as compared to previous round of the survey (Round 19) and the corresponding period a year ago (Round 16). In fact, share of households expecting ‘price increase less than current rate’ has declined for all product groups.

Table 2: Percentage of Respondents on General Price Expectations

Round No./survey period →

Three months ahead (percentage of respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

95.3

89.8

92.0

93.1

95.8

97.4

95.7

95.3

Price increase more than current rate

66.4

52.9

54.9

63.5

72.2

74.6

66.9

72.7

Price increase similar to current rate

19.9

20.1

22.4

20.7

18.4

16.6

20.0

20.0

Price increase less than current rate

9.0

16.8

14.8

8.9

5.1

6.2

8.8

2.6

No change in prices

3.4

5.7

6.9

6.1

3.7

2.4

3.4

4.2

Decline in price

1.4

4.5

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.9

0.5

Options

One year ahead (percentage of respondents)

Prices will increase

95.2

90.6

95.6

93.7

96.3

96.3

96.5

95.2

Price increase more than current rate

69.6

59.7

64.7

62.8

69.5

68.2

62.8

70.8

Price increase similar to current rate

16.3

18.0

15.9

18.5

17.3

15.2

19.8

18.7

Price increase less than current rate

9.3

12.9

15.0

12.4

9.5

12.9

13.9

5.7

No change in prices

3.2

3.1

3.3

5.3

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.8

Decline in price

1.8

6.3

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.9

1.1

III.3 Coherence Between General Prices and Product Groups’ Prices

To observe how a respondent assigns priorities to various product groups for working out price variation in general, an exercise has been carried out. Under this exercise, a degree of coherence between General prices and other prices of product groups is derived based on the total percentage of respondents who expects movements of General price in concurrence with that of the corresponding product groups. The degree of coherence about the price expectations in general for three months ahead and one year ahead vis-à-vis various product groups are given in Table 3 and 4.

It is observed that the general price expectations are more in tune with food price expectations as compared to other product groups. This association was lowest for household durables product group. This indicates that respondents assign the highest priority to food prices when they think about the price movements in general. In the current round of the survey, about 90 per cent of the respondents are influenced by food prices for arriving at three months ahead and one year ahead general inflation. Similarly, about 80 per cent of the respondents are of the view that Housing and Cost of Services are influencing factors for three months ahead inflation while in case of Household durables it is just around 63 per cent to 67 per cent.

Table 3 : Percentage of Respondents in Coherence with General Price Expectations vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups – Three Months Ahead Price Rise

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Food

Non- Food

House- holds durables

Hous- ing

Cost of services

13

Sep-08

87.1

80.5

50.0

80.0

69.7

14

Dec-08

88.9

85.1

60.9

69.0

70.3

15

Mar-09

85.4

85.3

62.8

73.0

73.9

16

Jun-09

87.0

79.3

59.4

72.0

76.7

17

Sep-09

89.1

81.3

56.5

78.1

82.2

18

Dec-09

88.3

83.6

62.3

82.7

79.3

19

Mar-10

87.4

81.4

66.5

78.1

76.6

20

Jun-10

89.9

82.4

63.6

80.2

80.8

III.4 Inflation Expectations

The inflation expectations are collected through quantitative Block 4 of the survey schedule. The perception of current inflation rate and expectations of three months ahead and one year ahead inflation since Round 5 (September 2006) are shown in Table-5 and Chart 1. It represents the average inflation rate of 4,000 respondents based on individual consumption basket. The movement of the inflation expectations shows that the future inflation expectations are usually higher than the current inflation. In the current round of the survey (i.e., June 2010), the average rate of inflation expectations for current, three months ahead and one year ahead are 11.1 per cent, 11.4 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively, a little higher than 10.3 per cent, 10.6 per cent and 11.0 per cent measured in the last survey round (i.e., March 2010), but are lower than the peak inflation rates observed in September 2008. These inflation rates do not attempt to forecast the quantum of future inflation, but gives useful inputs on directional movement of future inflation.

Table 4 : Percentage of Respondents in Coherence with General Price Expectations vis-à-vis that of Various Product Groups – One Year Ahead Price Rise

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Food

Non- Food

House- holds durables

Housing

Cost of services

13

Sep-08

89.2

78.5

49.1

80.5

72.3

14

Dec-08

91.8

88.3

63.4

70.9

74.4

15

Mar-09

89.1

88.1

65.3

79.4

74.8

16

Jun-09

89.2

82.2

61.4

76.8

78.5

17

Sep-09

91.9

85.8

65.0

78.9

82.3

18

Dec-09

91.1

88.4

69.0

82.8

79.3

19

Mar-10

89.9

83.6

67.3

79.7

76.2

20

Jun-10

91.7

83.2

67.2

79.4

81.1


Table 5: Households Inflation Expectations – Current, Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Expectation period

Current

3 Months ahead

1 Year ahead

5

Sep-06

Oct-Dec06

4.7

4.8

5.6

6

Dec-06

Jan-Mar07

5.1

5.2

5.8

7

Mar-07

Apr-Jun07

5.9

5.9

6.3

8

Jun-07

Jul-Sep07

5.7

6.1

6.5

9

Sep-07

Oct-Dec07

4.8

5.3

6

10

Dec-07

Jan-Mar08

4.5

5.2

5.9

11

Mar-08

Apr-Jun08

4.9

5.4

6.3

12

Jun-08

Jul-Sep08

6.9

7.5

7.9

13

Sep-08

Oct-Dec08

12

12.8

13.5

13 A

Oct-08

Oct-Dec08

11.3

11.6

12.4

14

Dec-08

Jan-Mar09

9.3

8.9

9.6

15

Mar-09

Apr-Jun09

5.2

5.3

6.2

16

Jun-09

July-Sep09

5.8

6.3

6.7

17

Sep-09

Oct-Dec09

8.2

8.7

9.2

18

Dec-09

Jan-Mar10

11.1

11.6

11.9

19

Mar-10

Apr-Jun10

10.3

10.6

11

20

Jun-10

July-Sep10

11.1

11.4

11.9


It may be seen from Chart 1 that the short-term (3 months ahead) expectations of inflation lies between current and longterm (one year ahead) inflation and turning points are well-captured.

The Chart-2 presents the household inflation expectations along with the official inflation measures based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) – All commodities and Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW). It shows that for a large part of the survey history, the households’ inflation expectations remained between the WPI and CPI-IW inflations. However, the current survey round shows that household inflation expectations and CPI-IW inflation indicator are moving in opposite direction.


Table 6: Volatility in Responses in Various Rounds

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Current Inflation rate

Inflation rate- 3 months ahead

Inflation rate- 1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

12

Jun-08

6.9

1.4

7.5

1.4

7.9

1.5

13

Sep-08

11.3

2.0

11.6

3.2

12.4

3.6

14

Dec-08

9.3

1.9

8.9

3.5

9.6

3.9

15

Mar-09

5.2

1.9

5.3

2.6

6.2

2.7

16

Jun-09

5.8

4.4

6.3

4.6

6.7

4.7

17

Sep-09

8.2

6.0

8.7

6.0

9.2

5.9

18

Dec-09

11.1

4.9

11.6

4.9

11.9

5.1

19

Mar-10

10.3

4.4

10.6

4.7

11.0

4.8

20

Jun-10

11.1

3.6

11.4

4.1

11.9

4.2

III.5 Volatility in Responses

The volatility in responses is measured through standard deviation. Over different rounds, it can be seen from Table 6 that the standard deviation is lower for current inflation rate as compared to three months ahead and one year ahead.

The total variability in response for various inflation expectations was elucidated by different classificatory factors (viz., Gender, Age-group, City and Category) of respondents over different rounds. An ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) carried out over different rounds revealed that ‘city’ has been a significant source of variation in all rounds due to variation in consumption baskets across the cities. It is also observed that since the 17th round of the survey (September 2009), there is no significant gender-wise variation in inflation expectations.

III.6. Relationship of Current Inflation With Future Inflation

It may be seen from the following bubble charts how respondents’ expectation for current verses three months ahead and current verses one year ahead are dispersed. About 52 per cent of the respondents are of the view that current inflation is in double digit. Amongst this, around 92 and 94 per cent respondents expect that it would remain in this band for short term and long-term, respectively.

Table 7: Factors that Explain the Total Variability

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Current

3 month ahead

1 year ahead

12

Jun-08

City, Age, Category

City, Age, Category

City, Age

13

Sep-08

City

City, Age, Category

City, Age

14

Dec-08

City, Gender, Age

City, Gender, Category

City, Category

15

Mar-09

City, Category

City, Gender, Category

City, Category

16

Jun-09

City, Gender, Category, Age

City, Gender, Category

City, Category, Age

17

Sep-09

City, Age

City, Age

City, Age

18

Dec-09

City, Category, Age

City, Age

City

19

Mar-10

City, Category, Age

City, Category

City, Category

20

Jun-10

City, Category, Age

City, Category, Age

City, Category, Age


III.7. Gender wise – Inflation expectations

The cohesiveness is observed more for the current inflation rate as compared to three months and 1 year ahead inflation expectations across the survey rounds (Table 9). It is also observed that in the current round of survey the consonance in responses is less in male respondents as compared to their female counterparts for the current inflation as well as short term inflation rate.

III.8. Category Wise Inflation

The category of respondents shows their occupation status. The category wise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement III. For the latest survey round (Table-10) daily-wage workers and housewives reported higher inflation expectations and financial sector employees reported lower inflation expectations, which was generally observed in the last few rounds of the survey.

Table 9: Gender wise Inflation Expectations

Round No.

Survey Period

 

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

13

Sep-08

Male

11.3

1.88

11.5

3.21

12.3

3.65

 

 

Female

11.2

2.08

11.6

3.15

12.6

3.57

14

Dec-08

Male

9.3

1.89

8.6

3.70

9.5

3.92

 

 

Female

9.4

1.95

9.4

3.23

9.9

3.78

15

Mar-09

Male

5.1

1.92

5.2

2.61

6.1

2.79

 

 

Female

5.4

2.02

5.6

2.52

6.3

2.66

16

Jun-09

Male

5.7

4.48

6.2

4.72

6.7

4.78

 

 

Female

6.1

4.18

6.5

4.50

6.8

4.60

17

Sep-09

Male

8.1

6.05

8.7

6.00

9.3

5.82

 

 

Female

8.2

6.02

8.7

6.00

9.1

5.95

18

Dec-09

Male

11.1

4.90

11.5

4.85

11.9

4.98

 

 

Female

11.1

4.93

11.6

4.88

11.8

5.33

19

Mar-10

Male

10.1

4.31

10.4

4.56

11.0

4.71

 

 

Female

10.6

4.43

10.8

4.80

11.1

5.02

20

Jun-10

Male

11.1

3.60

11.3

4.25

12.0

4.16

 

 

Female

11.0

3.55

11.5

3.93

11.9

4.24


Table 10: Category wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey

Survey Period

Category of Respondent

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

June - 10

Financial Sector

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Employees

10.3

3.38

10.4

4.25

11.2

4.19

 

Other Employees

11.1

3.58

11.5

4.15

11.8

4.30

 

Self-Employed

11.0

3.66

11.0

4.36

11.7

4.23

 

Housewife

11.3

3.58

11.9

3.82

12.3

4.14

 

Retired persons

11.3

3.65

11.8

4.18

11.9

4.34

 

Daily-wage Workers

11.6

3.57

11.7

4.25

12.5

4.01

 

Other Category

10.3

3.28

10.8

3.86

11.6

3.84

III.9. Age-group-wise Inflation

The survey covers only the adult respondents of 18 years or more. The agewise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement IV. Across rounds, no specific pattern is found in age-wise responses. During the current survey round, the respondents whose age is 60 years and above have highest inflation expectations for short-term and long-term.

III.10. City-wise Inflation

The city-wise responses on inflation rate show significant variations in inflation expectations across cities. The city-wise inflation expectations since Round 13 are given in Statement V. It can be seen from this statement that in each survey round, city-wise inflation rates are significantly different due to the divergence in consumption pattern in each city. The latest round of survey (Table 12) shows that the inflation expectation for Bangalore was highest while it was lowest for Chennai. This is generally observed in the last few rounds of the survey (Chart 3).

IV. A Bootstrap Confidence Interval for Inflation Expectations

In the previous sections, the average rates (mean, median and mode values) of inflation expectations are presented. Using the Bootstrap-resampling method, an interval estimate of the average inflation expectation of households is computed, so as to give a clearer picture of the error associated with the estimates of households’ inflation expectation.

Table 11: Age Group-wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey

Survey Period

Category of Respondent

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

June - 10

Up to 25 years

10.6

3.46

11.2

4.00

11.9

3.84

 

25 to 30 years

10.7

3.57

11.1

4.03

11.6

4.33

 

30 to 35 years

10.8

3.58

11.0

4.16

11.6

4.19

 

35 to 40 years

11.3

3.68

11.6

4.20

12.0

4.34

 

40 to 45 years

11.0

3.56

11.2

4.10

11.8

4.13

 

45 to 50 years

11.2

3.41

11.6

4.14

12.0

4.22

 

50 to 55 years

11.6

3.60

11.7

4.22

12.4

4.13

 

55 to 60 years

11.5

3.63

11.7

4.29

12.2

4.19

 

60 years & above

11.6

3.63

12.1

4.09

12.4

4.29


Table 12: City wise Inflation Expectations for June 2010 Survey

Survey Period

City

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

June - 10

Guwahati

10.0

2.92

11.1

2.63

12.9

2.35

 

Patna

11.9

1.89

12.7

2.07

12.9

2.04

 

Kolkata

8.9

1.57

8.4

2.85

9.2

3.24

 

Lucknow

11.8

3.55

12.9

3.26

13.0

3.15

 

Delhi

10.8

4.05

11.4

4.39

12.3

4.39

 

Jaipur

13.6

2.86

14.1

3.39

15.0

2.91

 

Ahmedabad

9.1

2.24

11.2

2.79

12.1

2.01

 

Mumbai

14.2

3.24

12.2

5.91

12.6

5.67

 

Bhopal

8.9

1.15

10.2

1.93

11.4

2.92

 

Hyderabad

12.3

3.54

13.2

4.36

13.6

4.04

 

Bangalore

15.6

1.95

15.8

1.68

16.0

1.47

 

Chennai

8.0

1.37

8.4

2.22

7.7

2.73

The Bootstrap is a re-sampling method for statistical inference. Bootstrapping is a powerful technique in the present era of high computing, wherein the sampling distribution of a statistic can be obtained without any knowledge of the exact distribution of the population variable under study. Through Bootstrapping, a confidence interval of not only population mean μ but also the population median and other parameters can be obtained. It is commonly used to estimate confidence intervals.

Drawing 10,000 resamples using Simple Random Sampling with Replacement from the sample of the Survey; 99 per cent Bootstrap confidence intervals for mean and median have been obtained. The results are presented in the Table 13 for Round 13 to 20. It is observed that the exercise leads to a confidence interval with a small width indicating that the point estimates are quite precise for estimating the population means of households’ expectation of inflation.


Table 13: A 99% Bootstrap Confidence Intervals (B C I) Based on 10,000 Resample

Round No.

Survey Quarter

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

99% BCI For Mean

Interval width

99% BCI For Mean

Interval width

99% BCI For Mean

Interval width

13

Sep-08

11.91-12.10

0.19

12.70-12.92

0.22

13.34-13.59

0.15

14

Dec-08

9.24- 9.40

0.16

8.77- 9.05

0.28

9.47- 9.80

0.33

15

Mar-09

5.14- 5.31

0.17

5.21- 5.42

0.21

6.08- 6.30

0.22

16

Jun-09

5.67- 6.02

0.35

6.11- 6.49

0.38

6.51- 6.89

0.38

17

Sep-09

7.92- 8.40

0.48

8.44- 8.93

0.49

9.00- 9.48

0.48

18

Dec-09

10.91-11.32

0.41

11.38-11.77

0.39

11.63-12.08

0.45

19

Mar-10

10.09-10.45

0.36

10.37-10.76

0.39

10.83-11.22

0.39

20

Jun-10

10.91-11.20

0.29

11.22-11.55

0.33

11.75-12.09

0.34


Statement 1 : Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead

1 General Prices

Round No./Survey Period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

95.3

89.8

92.0

93.1

95.8

97.4

95.7

95.3

Price increase more than current rate

66.4

52.9

54.9

63.5

72.2

74.6

66.9

72.7

Price increase similar to current rate

19.9

20.1

22.4

20.7

18.4

16.6

20.0

20.0

Price increase less than current rate

9.0

16.8

14.8

8.9

5.1

6.2

8.8

2.6

No change in prices

3.4

5.7

6.9

6.1

3.7

2.4

3.4

4.2

Decline in price

1.4

4.5

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.9

0.5

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

95.2

90.6

95.6

93.7

96.3

96.3

96.5

95.2

Price increase more than current rate

69.6

59.7

64.7

62.8

69.5

68.2

62.8

70.8

Price increase similar to current rate

16.3

18.0

15.9

18.5

17.3

15.2

19.8

18.7

Price increase less than current rate

9.3

12.9

15.0

12.4

9.5

12.9

13.9

5.7

No change in prices

3.2

3.1

3.3

5.3

3.1

3.1

2.6

3.8

Decline in price

1.8

6.3

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.9

1.1

2 Food Prices

Round No./Survey Period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

96.0

90.9

93.6

94.6

96.3

98.0

95.9

95.8

Price increase more than current rate

69.7

53.5

58.6

64.5

76.1

81.1

70.4

74.9

Price increase similar to current rate

17.8

19.7

23.3

21.5

15.0

11.7

15.5

17.7

Price increase less than current rate

8.5

17.8

11.8

8.6

5.2

5.3

10.0

3.2

No change in prices

2.6

5.3

5.6

4.6

3.0

1.4

3.1

3.5

Decline in price

1.5

3.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.6

1.0

0.7

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

95.5

91.4

96.6

94.7

96.2

96.5

96.8

95.6

Price increase more than current rate

72.8

60.3

66.2

63.6

71.0

72.1

65.9

72.8

Price increase similar to current rate

14.0

17.4

18.1

18.9

15.2

11.9

16.5

16.9

Price increase less than current rate

8.7

13.7

12.4

12.2

10.0

12.5

14.5

5.9

No change in prices

2.9

2.9

2.7

4.5

2.9

2.7

2.3

3.3

Decline in price

1.8

5.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.1

3 Non-Food Prices

Round No./survey period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

93.6

88.6

91.0

91.4

94.7

95.8

94.0

92.9

Price increase more than current rate

58.0

47.5

48.6

51.2

59.3

63.1

57.4

60.1

Price increase similar to current rate

24.1

23.3

25.5

28.4

27.1

24.8

28.0

29.4

Price increase less than current rate

11.5

17.8

17.0

11.8

8.3

7.9

8.7

3.4

No change in prices

4.9

6.6

7.8

7.7

4.7

3.7

4.8

6.3

Decline in price

1.6

4.9

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.5

1.2

0.9

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

92.9

89.3

94.6

91.9

95.2

94.6

94.7

92.8

Price increase more than current rate

61.0

54.0

57.5

53.1

59.6

60.7

53.0

59.7

Price increase similar to current rate

20.8

21.8

20.4

25.0

23.6

20.7

27.6

26.4

Price increase less than current rate

11.1

13.5

16.7

13.8

12.1

13.2

14.1

6.7

No change in prices

4.8

4.1

4.1

7.3

4.0

4.6

4.2

5.9

Decline in price

2.3

6.6

1.4

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.1

1.3

Note: Two Rounds 13 and 13A were conducted in September and October 2008. The results presented in this article for Round 13 pertain to the October 2008 Round as the questionnaire for this and all the subsequent rounds is identical.


Statement 1: Percentage of Respondents Product-wise Expectations of Prices for 3 Months and 1 Year Ahead (Concld.)

4 Prices of Household durables

Round No./Survey Period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

72.4

78.2

82.5

80.0

86.8

87.7

86.4

87.1

Price increase more than current rate

27.9

32.6

33.2

37.2

38.4

45.5

44.1

45.1

Price increase similar to current rate

23.3

24.6

24.2

26.3

30.5

23.4

27.2

30.5

Price increase less than current rate

21.2

21.0

25.2

16.5

18.0

18.9

15.1

11.6

No change in prices

14.4

12.9

14.6

15.7

11.0

9.5

8.8

9.1

Decline in price

13.4

9.0

2.9

4.4

2.2

2.9

4.8

3.8

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

73.1

79.1

84.6

80.4

88.7

87.8

85.2

87.2

Price increase more than current rate

30.4

38.6

40.1

38.4

43.3

45.5

43.2

46.6

Price increase similar to current rate

22.7

21.5

22.4

24.3

28.2

22.1

25.4

30.1

Price increase less than current rate

20.0

19.0

22.1

17.7

17.3

20.3

16.6

10.6

No change in prices

13.4

12.1

11.2

16.2

9.1

8.5

9.6

8.0

Decline in price

13.5

8.8

4.2

3.5

2.2

3.7

5.3

4.8

5 Housing Prices

Round No./survey period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

90.9

88.4

89.8

92.4

93.8

96.1

95.2

96.1

Price increase more than current rate

64.4

49.7

46.2

55.9

64.4

70.8

60.4

70.8

Price increase similar to current rate

20.2

20.8

26.4

25.4

22.0

19.8

25.4

21.0

Price increase less than current rate

6.3

17.9

17.2

11.1

7.4

5.6

9.5

4.3

No change in prices

6.0

6.8

8.3

6.4

5.0

3.4

3.5

3.1

Decline in price

3.2

4.8

1.9

1.3

1.2

0.5

1.3

0.9

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

91.4

87.0

93.0

93.0

94.9

96.4

94.1

96.1

Price increase more than current rate

65.1

56.3

57.4

57.6

66.0

73.4

61.0

72.0

Price increase similar to current rate

20.1

20.2

20.0

22.1

21.4

15.1

21.7

19.1

Price increase less than current rate

6.2

10.5

15.6

13.3

7.6

7.9

11.4

5.0

No change in prices

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.8

3.8

2.9

4.6

2.7

Decline in price

3.5

7.6

1.6

1.2

1.3

0.7

1.3

1.2

6 Cost of Services

Round No./Survey Period →

3 Months Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Options

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Prices will increase

89.5

86.1

87.8

87.3

92.4

91.7

89.9

94.1

Price increase more than current rate

55.0

43.9

42.2

53.1

63.7

62.7

58.6

63.2

Price increase similar to current rate

24.2

26.9

29.2

22.2

22.9

21.2

23.9

26.2

Price increase less than current rate

10.3

15.3

16.4

12.0

5.8

7.8

7.5

4.8

No change in prices

7.6

10.3

10.4

11.3

6.3

7.0

6.7

4.8

Decline in price

3.0

3.7

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.4

3.4

1.1

Options

1 Year Ahead (Percentage of Respondents)

Prices will increase

91.0

88.4

90.7

88.1

95.0

92.3

89.9

94.2

Price increase more than current rate

60.2

52.1

49.2

54.4

65.6

62.9

57.2

63.2

Price increase similar to current rate

20.7

23.5

23.9

20.2

21.5

18.5

23.0

24.9

Price increase less than current rate

10.1

12.9

17.6

13.5

7.9

10.9

9.8

6.1

No change in prices

5.8

6.7

7.3

10.3

4.1

6.0

6.9

4.6

Decline in price

3.3

4.9

2.1

1.6

1.0

1.8

3.2

1.2


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation

Round 13 (September 2008)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

1-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

2-3

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

2

3-4

 

 

1

 

5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

4-5

5

 

 

1

2

5

5

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

5-6

8

 

 

1

1

4

4

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28

6-7

11

 

 

 

1

1

19

27

2

2

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

64

7-8

20

 

 

 

 

 

5

26

20

13

2

1

 

 

 

 

 

87

8-9

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

18

58

27

3

 

 

 

 

 

127

9-10

26

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

6

80

226

99

11

2

4

4

1

462

10-11

38

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

2

36

152

339

135

12

19

20

 

754

11-12

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

14

182

405

553

105

53

36

1

1401

12-13

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

43

126

246

41

20

3

487

13-14

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

10

52

131

28

10

237

14-15

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

4

54

79

9

151

15-16

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

55

31

101

>= 16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

67

72

Total

192

0

2

3

9

12

34

74

50

203

589

892

837

421

315

245

122

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

3

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

2

4

2

 

 

1

1

1

2

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

5

4

 

 

4

4

1

1

4

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

19

6

4

 

 

 

1

10

1

6

 

3

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

28

7

6

 

 

 

1

5

24

5

16

3

2

 

1

1

 

 

 

64

8

16

 

 

 

 

1

4

31

7

11

11

4

1

 

1

 

 

87

9

11

 

 

 

 

 

1

10

25

7

39

22

6

2

4

 

 

127

10

34

 

 

 

 

 

1

6

13

74

54

122

70

37

19

13

19

462

11

51

1

 

 

 

 

 

4

7

40

118

102

145

91

80

46

69

754

12

47

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

10

15

150

235

182

358

183

85

134

1401

13

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

40

91

70

150

51

75

487

14

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

4

36

47

71

70

237

15

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

8

22

47

69

151

16

2

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

8

15

73

101

17

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

67

72

Total

195

1

1

5

7

18

35

69

78

153

381

526

503

606

515

331

576

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 14 (December 2008)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

< 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5-6

 

 

 

 

2

24

28

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

55

6-7

6

 

 

 

 

21

57

56

4

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

145

7-8

56

 

 

 

 

2

57

139

172

38

17

1

 

 

 

 

 

482

8-9

223

 

 

 

 

 

43

321

376

478

169

52

14

1

3

 

 

1680

9-10

43

 

 

 

 

 

 

17

57

172

256

56

34

6

4

 

 

645

10-11

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

6

25

92

112

35

17

6

1

 

317

11-12

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

3

20

73

77

29

6

 

1

233

12-13

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

27

60

58

17

4

 

192

13-14

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

13

32

40

13

1

108

14-15

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

10

30

38

4

89

15-16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

8

16

14

42

>= 16

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

8

12

Total

407

 

 

 

2

47

185

537

617

718

555

327

233

156

116

72

28

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2-3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5-6

 

 

 

 

1

12

36

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

55

6-7

4

 

 

 

1

8

21

85

17

4

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

145

7-8

50

 

 

 

 

2

49

81

145

84

44

11

8

2

 

1

5

482

8-9

194

 

 

 

 

1

54

196

323

304

331

158

59

32

15

8

4

1679

9-10

60

 

 

 

 

 

12

37

43

116

124

113

40

31

30

23

16

645

10-11

25

 

 

 

 

 

2

6

9

17

55

58

70

24

22

14

15

317

11-12

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

4

12

33

45

58

35

22

11

233

12-13

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

 

21

35

44

42

16

17

192

13-14

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

4

21

23

26

26

108

14-15

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

28

23

20

89

15-16

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

15

16

42

>= 16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

7

12

Total

376

 

 

 

2

23

174

412

540

531

572

396

261

223

201

151

137

3999


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 15 (March 2009)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1-2

2

1

2

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

2-3

17

9

16

17

6

4

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

71

3-4

87

20

116

285

405

159

29

10

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1113

4-5

64

7

13

102

245

419

89

11

2

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

954

5-6

79

17

3

4

99

201

417

36

3

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

861

6-7

34

16

7

1

3

72

108

212

14

3

1

1

 

 

1

 

 

473

7-8

20

5

6

3

 

4

25

72

115

6

3

1

 

 

 

 

 

260

8-9

7

2

3

3

 

 

2

7

11

28

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

71

9-10

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

11

17

4

 

1

 

 

 

41

10-11

2

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

 

1

10

39

25

4

1

 

 

85

11-12

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

5

3

1

 

 

13

12-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

4

4

 

 

13

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

3

2

 

8

14-15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

6

 

10

15-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

6

8

>= 16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

9

11

Total

322

77

166

416

758

859

674

351

146

53

41

48

35

15

15

9

15

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1-2

2

1

1

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

2-3

5

7

23

11

9

5

7

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

71

3-4

46

22

63

184

198

205

211

109

31

14

13

11

5

 

 

 

1

1113

4-5

43

3

24

75

161

277

215

101

34

4

14

 

2

 

1

 

 

954

5-6

39

6

8

38

137

131

197

256

32

7

4

2

2

2

 

 

 

861

6-7

21

4

6

15

30

82

65

93

131

11

7

3

1

3

 

 

1

473

7-8

13

 

5

5

5

5

22

58

73

56

12

1

4

 

1

 

 

260

8-9

3

1

1

1

1

4

1

8

14

7

20

3

6

1

 

 

 

71

9-10

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

7

4

17

4

4

 

1

 

41

10-11

1

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

3

11

7

25

16

14

2

5

85

11-12

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

3

3

2

1

13

12-13

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

1

 

2

4

3

13

13-14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

2

3

8

14-15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

2

2

10

15-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

6

8

>= 16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

9

11

Total

179

44

131

331

541

710

718

629

317

111

86

45

51

31

29

16

31

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 16 (June 2009)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

204

96

20

3

 

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

325

1-2

122

127

105

39

3

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

398

2-3

38

21

76

119

87

9

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

352

3-4

38

3

25

101

351

70

4

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

593

4-5

31

 

2

42

85

246

37

2

 

 

2

 

1

 

 

 

 

448

5-6

28

 

1

1

41

91

311

37

2

3

2

3

 

 

 

 

1

521

6-7

13

 

1

1

4

16

50

156

24

3

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

270

7-8

6

 

 

 

1

4

9

27

72

22

8

 

2

2

 

 

 

153

8-9

3

 

 

 

 

2

1

1

15

31

23

4

2

 

 

 

 

82

9-10

7

 

 

 

 

1

3

1

2

18

43

22

8

5

8

2

2

122

10-11

8

 

 

 

2

 

2

1

4

8

54

53

65

16

9

5

4

231

11-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

 

3

13

12

7

1

2

40

12-13

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

19

19

17

5

1

63

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

6

4

17

9

38

14-15

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1

 

1

10

31

20

75

15-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

7

25

33

>= 16

6

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

1

4

 

1

1

1

1

239

256

Total

515

247

230

306

574

443

421

227

119

87

140

89

111

63

56

69

303

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

110

125

39

17

22

7

1

3

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

325

1-2

105

121

52

74

31

8

4

2

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

398

2-3

33

21

83

63

80

50

12

7

 

2

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

352

3-4

30

10

41

100

52

265

62

25

4

2

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

593

4-5

28

2

16

62

82

65

138

35

12

1

4

 

2

 

 

 

1

448

5-6

37

 

1

27

108

84

54

165

22

9

7

5

 

1

 

 

1

521

6-7

12

1

 

2

8

33

54

44

90

11

9

5

 

 

 

1

 

270

7-8

11

 

 

 

2

5

4

20

31

50

12

8

2

2

2

3

1

153

8-9

4

 

 

 

 

1

2

1

8

19

19

7

11

6

3

 

1

82

9-10

6

 

 

 

 

2

1

4

6

14

20

32

12

6

11

2

6

122

10-11

5

 

1

1

2

 

1

4

1

11

54

9

62

27

29

13

11

231

11-12

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

3

5

8

6

11

3

40

12-13

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

3

13

11

14

8

9

63

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

 

8

1

7

18

38

14-15

5

 

 

 

1

 

1

3

 

1

2

1

1

2

9

17

32

75

15-16

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

1

5

24

33

>= 16

3

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

 

 

2

 

2

 

2

4

240

256

Total

396

280

233

346

388

521

335

316

174

122

134

76

112

71

78

71

347

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 17 (September 2009)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

223

154

53

7

9

1

5

1

1

2

 

2

1

 

 

 

 

459

1-2

23

63

169

47

13

7

1

1

 

1

2

 

 

 

1

 

 

328

2-3

12

14

39

209

24

8

3

 

 

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

1

314

3-4

11

 

14

45

268

12

3

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

355

4-5

27

 

 

10

42

143

22

7

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

253

5-6

16

 

 

3

17

44

104

26

1

1

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

214

6-7

6

 

 

 

6

9

29

80

41

3

2

 

 

 

 

1

 

177

7-8

13

 

 

 

 

9

5

20

41

24

7

 

1

 

1

1

 

122

8-9

5

 

 

 

 

 

3

2

14

26

9

 

4

1

1

 

 

65

9-10

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

1

14

33

26

11

1

1

 

 

90

10-11

5

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

 

4

39

91

75

7

5

9

5

244

11-12

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

8

22

5

8

1

1

47

12-13

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

15

37

12

6

9

84

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

11

18

12

9

52

14-15

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

1

21

76

45

153

15-16

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

 

 

1

3

35

130

175

>= 16

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

2

 

1

8

841

868

Total

375

231

275

321

379

233

176

142

99

79

104

128

132

64

72

149

1041

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

162

28

141

42

34

15

12

8

2

4

1

1

2

3

1

2

1

459

1-2

12

38

42

102

49

30

21

15

4

4

2

3

2

 

2

2

 

328

2-3

13

38

59

23

98

24

10

21

6

5

7

1

 

 

 

4

5

314

3-4

25

5

87

81

16

111

15

5

4

1

 

1

2

1

1

 

 

355

4-5

17

 

2

39

60

26

76

11

9

5

3

3

1

 

1

 

 

253

5-6

9

 

 

3

18

50

34

69

14

9

3

1

2

 

1

 

1

214

6-7

5

 

 

 

8

11

31

27

72

12

7

2

1

 

 

 

1

177

7-8

7

 

 

 

 

8

9

18

22

29

11

6

3

4

 

3

2

122

8-9

5

 

 

 

 

 

3

6

11

8

16

5

4

0

2

4

1

65

9-10

0

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

2

10

6

18

20

12

11

5

4

90

10-11

5

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

4

40

27

59

40

33

17

17

244

11-12

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

4

3

14

8

9

5

47

12-13

2

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

3

 

8

9

25

11

25

84

13-14

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

4

8

13

21

52

14-15

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

2

1

22

24

94

153

15-16

6

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

 

2

2

4

37

122

175

>= 16

19

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

1

4

1

5

2

7

9

819

868

Total

300

109

331

290

283

280

211

182

148

93

107

73

117

92

126

140

1118

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 18 (December 2009)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1-2

2

3

9

5

2

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22

2-3

2

6

16

131

10

4

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

171

3-4

7

1

14

44

305

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

395

4-5

5

 

 

2

30

114

47

6

1

 

2

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

208

5-6

1

 

1

1

5

16

67

38

4

1

 

2

1

 

1

 

 

 

138

6-7

2

 

 

2

 

 

19

46

25

4

3

 

1

 

 

 

1

2

105

7-8

4

 

 

 

 

 

2

19

33

29

9

2

 

1

2

 

1

2

104

8-9

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

21

27

18

3

3

2

 

 

3

 

81

9-10

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

26

40

37

19

3

2

 

 

1

132

10-11

6

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

5

13

87

182

74

17

15

5

3

5

415

11-12

3

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

11

130

55

36

22

13

1

8

282

12-13

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

5

96

76

34

15

5

9

246

13-14

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

1

56

56

36

5

7

167

14-15

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

62

98

29

6

199

15-16

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

1

28

167

7

210

>= 16

28

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

1

7

1

7

2

3

13

1033

14

1111

no idea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

9

11

Total

75

13

41

185

352

161

139

116

91

102

181

364

258

194

200

210

1248

70

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

No idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

1

 

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1-2

4

8

1

4

3

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22

2-3

11

58

23

4

61

4

3

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

171

3-4

41

11

147

62

14

105

9

3

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

395

4-5

4

2

3

28

44

20

63

21

10

3

4

 

2

1

2

 

1

 

208

5-6

2

1

 

4

4

26

21

31

18

19

4

2

1

1

 

3

1

 

138

6-7

1

1

 

 

1

4

18

15

25

7

16

7

3

 

2

 

2

3

105

7-8

4

 

 

 

 

 

3

16

15

16

19

12

8

2

1

 

2

6

104

8-9

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

11

16

21

10

5

5

2

1

5

2

81

9-10

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

 

21

23

17

26

20

11

5

2

3

132

10-11

8

 

1

 

 

 

1

1

4

13

75

59

113

55

39

9

24

13

415

11-12

2

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

6

13

67

26

53

55

33

9

16

282

12-13

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

5

5

29

72

62

40

17

12

246

13-14

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

2

 

19

48

57

28

8

167

14-15

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

5

2

29

58

94

8

199

15-16

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

1

23

169

11

210

>= 16

19

 

1

 

4

2

 

1

 

1

8

6

2

3

6

20

1010

28

1111

no idea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

9

11

Total

108

81

177

103

131

163

121

96

85

106

192

187

220

233

260

251

1366

120

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Contd.)

Round 19 (March 2010)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

no idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1-2

 

2

3

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

2-3

1

13

17

57

8

3

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

101

3-4

21

1

18

37

132

8

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

220

4-5

11

 

1

7

34

162

11

4

6

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

239

5-6

1

 

 

 

5

38

68

31

4

5

3

 

1

 

 

 

1

4

161

6-7

2

 

1

 

1

4

39

85

37

8

7

1

 

 

 

 

1

3

189

7-8

10

 

 

 

 

5

9

98

99

38

24

4

2

 

 

 

2

14

305

8-9

30

 

1

 

 

 

5

42

214

171

66

22

12

9

2

1

2

29

606

9-10

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

5

57

106

30

14

3

1

 

 

18

245

10-11

12

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

9

96

230

72

25

5

 

3

13

468

11-12

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

27

49

39

14

2

2

4

146

12-13

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

1

20

56

40

6

 

3

132

13-14

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

1

2

18

41

32

2

2

107

14-15

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

17

59

9

 

93

15-16

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

27

67

2

102

>= 16

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

2

1

3

1

818

3

878

Total

169

18

41

102

180

220

137

263

368

294

311

317

174

152

123

128

908

95

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

no idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1-2

 

1

2

2

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

2-3

5

31

29

 

19

4

5

3

2

2

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

101

3-4

3

12

87

64

8

30

6

3

3

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

220

4-5

10

 

3

95

58

6

37

4

5

4

5

3

1

2

 

 

1

5

239

5-6

2

 

 

3

21

37

10

21

17

11

19

7

3

1

3

1

1

4

161

6-7

3

 

 

 

3

3

32

14

50

21

27

17

6

5

2

 

3

3

189

7-8

12

 

 

 

 

5

13

80

48

45

38

26

13

5

 

 

3

17

305

8-9

32

 

 

 

 

 

29

8

176

66

132

42

43

12

13

4

6

43

606

9-10

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

2

51

45

50

29

12

6

3

6

28

245

10-11

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

2

8

91

135

82

53

33

11

15

28

468

11-12

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

2

29

9

38

31

15

8

9

146

12-13

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

12

11

44

33

20

6

132

13-14

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

3

1

1

11

16

51

16

3

107

14-15

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

16

24

51

 

93

15-16

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

17

72

7

102

>= 16

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

2

 

5

4

819

6

878

Total

141

45

121

164

109

85

132

141

306

214

364

311

203

150

169

163

1023

159

4000


Statement II: Cross-tabulation of Current and Future Inflation Expectation (Concld.)

Round 20 (June 2010)

 

3 Months Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

no idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

1-2

 

 

2

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

2-3

 

 

1

2

8

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

3-4

 

 

 

3

5

9

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19

4-5

 

 

 

2

5

14

21

5

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

49

5-6

4

 

 

1

2

18

46

17

3

3

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

96

6-7

9

 

 

 

1

2

39

146

19

4

3

2

1

 

1

 

1

 

228

7-8

18

 

 

1

 

1

7

76

225

31

5

6

3

 

 

 

3

2

378

8-9

29

 

1

 

 

1

 

16

231

164

52

20

10

2

1

 

5

3

535

9-10

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

16

139

223

104

55

6

3

 

3

2

580

10-11

33

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

2

16

94

213

80

61

8

4

3

7

523

11-12

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

5

22

68

49

22

2

1

2

177

12-13

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

4

26

81

45

15

5

3

186

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

13

73

18

11

1

119

14-15

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

13

109

39

2

168

15-16

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

30

92

 

132

>= 16

48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

741

1

792

Total

187

0

4

10

21

49

115

263

497

361

386

372

245

214

169

178

905

24

4000

 

1 Year Ahead Inflation Rate

< 1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>= 16

no idea

Total

Current inflation rate

< 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

1-2

 

 

 

 

3

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

2-3

 

2

1

 

3

3

1

1

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

14

3-4

1

 

 

5

 

2

3

2

 

1

1

3

 

 

 

 

 

1

19

4-5

2

 

 

 

11

5

4

3

2

8

6

3

 

1

 

 

3

1

49

5-6

2

 

 

1

1

19

9

32

6

7

10

3

3

 

1

 

 

2

96

6-7

8

 

 

 

2

21

56

13

71

15

25

7

1

1

3

1

3

1

228

7-8

20

 

 

 

1

2

51

91

21

96

49

24

4

3

3

1

6

6

378

8-9

33

 

 

 

 

1

3

28

167

37

89

79

50

19

9

2

6

12

535

9-10

36

 

 

 

 

 

 

4

23

117

67

125

80

59

38

10

13

8

580

10-11

26

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

4

28

97

87

95

99

38

16

16

15

523

11-12

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

5

24

23

49

42

16

6

7

177

12-13

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

18

17

68

47

22

7

186

13-14

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

11

42

31

30

2

119

14-15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

3

9

62

86

5

168

15-16

8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

2

24

96

 

132

>= 16

46

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

1

733

6

792

Total

191

2

1

6

22

54

127

177

296

312

352

357

277

263

258

211

1020

74

4000


Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates

Survey
Period

Category of
Respondent

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Sep-08

Fin Sec Employees

11.2

1.84

11.6

3.14

12.4

3.62

Other Employees

11.3

1.91

11.3

3.48

12.1

3.72

Self-Employed

11.3

1.86

11.6

3.13

12.3

3.84

Housewife

11.3

2.05

11.8

2.97

12.8

3.45

Retired persons

11.2

2.04

11.2

3.67

12.1

3.84

Daily Workers

11.2

2.23

11.7

2.84

12.5

3.49

Other Category

11.3

1.65

11.5

3.18

12.5

3.27

Dec-08

Fin Sec Employees

9.2

1.69

8.2

3.63

8.5

4.09

Other Employees

9.1

1.76

8.4

3.65

9.4

3.74

Self-Employed

9.3

1.85

8.8

3.69

9.5

4.06

Housewife

9.4

2.00

9.6

3.02

10.4

3.29

Retired persons

9.4

1.99

8.8

3.71

9.3

4.35

Daily Workers

9.5

2.08

9.3

3.40

9.8

4.23

Other Category

9.3

2.06

8.4

4.01

9.4

3.76

Mar-09

Fin Sec Employees

4.9

1.82

4.8

2.52

5.7

2.64

Other Employees

5.1

1.80

5.1

2.51

6.0

2.66

Self-Employed

5.1

1.94

5.1

2.64

6.1

2.84

Housewife

5.4

2.06

5.6

2.56

6.4

2.72

Retired persons

5.2

1.99

5.3

2.59

6.1

2.80

Daily Workers

5.3

2.00

5.6

2.58

6.5

2.72

Other Category

5.3

2.01

5.6

2.55

6.4

2.73

Jun-09

Fin Sec Employees

5.3

4.35

5.6

4.48

6.0

4.65

Other Employees

5.3

4.26

5.8

4.58

6.3

4.64

Self-Employed

5.7

4.43

6.2

4.65

6.7

4.70

Housewife

6.3

4.30

6.7

4.64

7.0

4.75

Retired persons

6.4

4.87

6.9

5.06

7.1

5.14

Daily Workers

6.2

4.33

6.8

4.51

7.2

4.53

Other Category

5.2

3.90

5.7

4.27

6.3

4.41

Sep-09

Fin Sec Employees

8.3

6.19

8.7

6.05

9.3

5.85

Other Employees

8.0

6.12

8.4

6.09

9.0

5.87

Self-Employed

7.9

6.02

8.4

6.00

9.0

5.90

Housewife

8.5

6.02

9.0

5.98

9.5

5.93

Retired persons

8.4

6.14

9.1

6.01

9.7

5.86

Daily Workers

8.0

5.69

8.6

5.79

9.2

5.71

Other Category

7.8

5.97

8.3

6.03

9.1

5.79

Dec-09

Fin Sec Employees

10.2

4.98

10.7

5.01

11.1

5.21

Other Employees

10.9

4.97

11.4

4.88

11.8

5.02

Self-Employed

11.1

4.94

11.4

4.92

11.7

5.12

Housewife

11.5

4.81

12.0

4.74

12.1

5.14

Retired persons

11.2

5.06

11.6

4.94

11.8

5.27

Daily Workers

11.1

5.10

11.5

4.97

11.7

5.25

Other Category

11.3

4.43

11.9

4.50

12.2

4.71


Statement III: Category-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.)

Survey
Period

Category of
Respondent

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mar-10

Fin Sec Employees

9.5

4.14

9.8

4.46

10.3

4.73

Other Employees

9.7

4.10

10.2

4.33

10.7

4.50

Self-Employed

10.2

4.34

10.6

4.59

11.1

4.69

Housewife

10.8

4.46

10.9

4.84

11.3

5.03

Retired persons

10.5

4.60

10.6

4.86

10.8

5.08

Daily Workers

11.1

4.80

11.0

5.24

11.6

5.35

Other Category

9.8

3.72

10.4

4.04

11.0

4.32

Jun-10

Fin Sec Employees

10.3

3.38

10.4

4.25

11.2

4.19

Other Employees

11.1

3.58

11.5

4.15

11.8

4.30

Self-Employed

11.0

3.66

11.0

4.36

11.7

4.23

Housewife

11.3

3.58

11.9

3.82

12.3

4.14

Retired persons

11.3

3.65

11.8

4.18

11.9

4.34

Daily Workers

11.6

3.57

11.7

4.25

12.5

4.01

Other Category

10.3

3.28

10.8

3.86

11.6

3.84


Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates

Survey
Period

Age Group

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Sep-08

upto 25 years

11.4

1.93

11.9

2.83

12.8

3.23

25 to 30 years

11.3

1.97

11.8

3.01

12.8

3.62

30 to 35 years

11.3

1.91

11.6

3.11

12.5

3.49

35 to 40 years

11.4

1.93

11.9

2.97

12.6

3.60

40 to 45 years

11.2

1.94

11.5

3.20

12.3

3.71

45 to 50 years

11.0

1.91

11.4

3.14

12.3

3.45

50 to 55 years

11.0

1.84

10.8

3.57

11.6

3.72

55 to 60 years

11.2

2.04

11.3

3.63

12.3

3.53

60 years & above

11.1

2.14

11.0

3.83

11.6

4.32

Dec-08

upto 25 years

9.4

2.02

9.2

3.39

10.0

3.72

25 to 30 years

9.3

1.97

9.2

3.31

9.8

3.72

30 to 35 years

9.3

1.93

9.1

3.36

9.9

3.72

35 to 40 years

9.5

2.00

9.0

3.70

9.8

3.91

40 to 45 years

9.1

1.68

8.6

3.40

9.2

3.86

45 to 50 years

9.2

1.94

8.4

3.99

9.3

3.87

50 to 55 years

9.2

1.65

8.4

3.71

9.3

3.75

55 to 60 years

9.1

1.73

8.5

3.74

8.8

4.39

60 years & above

9.4

1.92

8.8

3.68

9.4

4.18

Mar-09

upto 25 years

5.1

1.72

5.3

2.33

6.2

2.48

25 to 30 years

5.3

2.01

5.3

2.61

6.2

2.77

30 to 35 years

5.4

2.09

5.5

2.65

6.4

2.82

35 to 40 years

5.3

1.95

5.5

2.59

6.3

2.85

40 to 45 years

5.2

1.98

5.1

2.60

6.0

2.78

45 to 50 years

5.3

2.22

5.4

2.87

6.3

3.02

50 to 55 years

5.1

1.59

5.0

2.32

5.9

2.44

55 to 60 years

5.1

1.95

5.1

2.57

6.0

2.50

60 years & above

5.1

1.98

5.1

2.69

6.0

2.85

Jun-09

upto 25 years

5.9

4.26

6.5

4.46

6.9

4.57

25 to 30 years

6.0

4.18

6.6

4.40

7.0

4.50

30 to 35 years

5.9

4.20

6.4

4.45

6.8

4.54

35 to 40 years

5.9

4.40

6.3

4.66

6.7

4.73

40 to 45 years

5.9

4.51

6.4

4.86

6.8

4.87

45 to 50 years

5.0

3.98

5.4

4.35

5.8

4.60

50 to 55 years

5.8

4.68

5.9

4.94

6.1

4.88

55 to 60 years

5.3

4.38

5.6

4.66

5.8

4.59

60 years & above

6.4

4.94

6.8

5.20

7.2

5.26


Statement IV: Age-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.)

Survey
Period

Age Group

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Sep-09

upto 25 years

8.4

6.05

8.9

6.08

9.4

5.82

25 to 30 years

7.8

5.90

8.4

5.82

9.1

5.72

30 to 35 years

8.1

5.91

8.6

5.90

9.0

5.88

35 to 40 years

8.0

6.05

8.5

5.97

9.2

5.85

40 to 45 years

7.7

6.02

8.2

6.03

8.8

5.95

45 to 50 years

8.1

6.21

8.7

6.16

9.0

6.06

50 to 55 years

8.8

6.04

9.0

6.09

9.6

5.92

55 to 60 years

9.1

6.16

9.7

5.95

10.0

5.78

60 years & above

8.3

6.15

9.0

6.10

9.5

5.98

Dec-09

upto 25 years

11.4

4.73

11.9

4.70

12.3

4.90

25 to 30 years

10.6

5.07

11.1

4.95

11.4

5.29

30 to 35 years

11.0

4.96

11.5

4.86

11.6

5.18

35 to 40 years

10.8

5.01

11.1

4.98

11.5

5.29

40 to 45 years

11.1

5.03

11.5

5.07

11.9

5.16

45 to 50 years

11.4

4.66

11.9

4.57

12.3

4.68

50 to 55 years

11.6

4.60

12.1

4.66

12.3

4.82

55 to 60 years

10.8

5.21

11.1

5.17

11.5

5.49

60 years & above

12.1

4.58

12.6

4.50

12.5

4.94

Mar-10

upto 25 years

10.1

4.07

10.6

4.37

11.2

4.51

25 to 30 years

10.0

4.46

10.4

4.62

10.9

4.81

30 to 35 years

10.2

4.38

10.5

4.70

11.0

4.87

35 to 40 years

10.4

4.33

10.6

4.73

10.8

5.01

40 to 45 years

10.2

4.53

10.3

4.91

10.9

5.00

45 to 50 years

10.8

4.52

11.1

4.72

11.4

4.92

50 to 55 years

10.4

4.25

10.8

4.57

11.2

4.70

55 to 60 years

10.0

4.38

10.3

4.76

10.9

4.97

60 years & above

10.6

4.43

10.7

4.72

11.1

4.85

Jun-10

upto 25 years

10.6

3.46

11.2

4.00

11.9

3.84

25 to 30 years

10.7

3.57

11.1

4.03

11.6

4.33

30 to 35 years

10.8

3.58

11.0

4.16

11.6

4.19

35 to 40 years

11.3

3.68

11.6

4.20

12.0

4.34

40 to 45 years

11.0

3.56

11.2

4.10

11.8

4.13

45 to 50 years

11.2

3.41

11.6

4.14

12.0

4.22

50 to 55 years

11.6

3.60

11.7

4.22

12.4

4.13

55 to 60 years

11.5

3.63

11.7

4.29

12.2

4.19

60 years & above

11.6

3.63

12.1

4.09

12.4

4.29


Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates

Survey
Period

City

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Sep-08

Guwahati

11.7

0.48

10.6

2.79

10.8

2.06

Patna

9.4

1.83

10.1

1.72

10.4

1.94

Kolkata

10.8

2.66

9.0

5.44

9.9

5.45

Lucknow

10.0

2.15

10.4

3.19

10.2

3.97

Delhi

11.2

1.13

11.9

1.43

12.6

2.01

Jaipur

12.3

1.10

13.1

1.48

13.8

1.90

Ahmedabad

11.4

1.08

13.6

2.62

14.8

3.17

Mumbai

11.4

0.93

11.9

1.47

14.2

1.48

Bhopal

14.2

1.78

14.8

1.41

15.7

1.21

Hyderabad

13.3

1.48

14.1

1.51

14.7

1.79

Bangalore

11.0

1.60

11.6

1.81

12.2

1.66

Chennai

10.1

0.96

10.6

2.65

11.5

4.34

Dec-08

Guwahati

8.4

0.29

4.7

3.54

8.0

1.14

Patna

7.8

1.17

8.7

1.29

8.5

1.63

Kolkata

9.0

1.03

8.5

2.59

9.2

2.52

Lucknow

8.5

0.98

6.5

3.88

6.7

3.88

Delhi

8.8

1.23

9.0

2.22

9.7

2.22

Jaipur

10.5

2.24

10.7

3.10

11.3

4.20

Ahmedabad

9.4

0.90

9.5

4.37

10.6

5.83

Mumbai

12.3

1.66

11.1

4.23

12.5

3.55

Bhopal

8.5

0.43

9.5

1.06

10.3

1.22

Hyderabad

7.3

1.33

7.3

1.52

8.1

1.61

Bangalore

10.7

2.30

11.7

2.72

13.4

2.71

Chennai

8.8

0.82

8.3

3.45

7.2

4.93

Mar-09

Guwahati

4.4

0.88

4.9

1.09

5.0

1.16

Patna

4.8

0.68

5.6

0.86

5.9

0.71

Kolkata

4.1

1.35

3.5

2.21

4.6

2.45

Lucknow

6.1

2.60

6.6

3.11

6.9

3.05

Delhi

5.3

1.75

5.9

2.35

7.2

2.47

Jaipur

6.3

2.76

7.3

3.16

8.5

3.69

Ahmedabad

4.6

1.55

3.7

2.04

5.6

3.08

Mumbai

5.0

1.44

4.4

1.99

5.2

2.08

Bhopal

3.6

0.42

4.0

1.21

6.1

1.47

Hyderabad

6.6

2.05

7.4

2.36

8.0

2.56

Bangalore

7.1

3.20

7.0

3.52

8.2

3.39

Chennai

5.6

0.72

5.4

1.87

5.4

2.03

Jun-09

Guwahati

0.7

0.42

0.8

0.48

1.3

0.62

Patna

10.7

2.48

11.4

3.41

11.6

3.74

Kolkata

2.7

1.82

2.4

2.08

2.8

2.35

Lucknow

3.3

1.28

4.6

1.34

5.1

1.61

Delhi

4.0

2.86

4.9

3.16

5.7

3.44

Jaipur

7.9

4.70

8.9

4.86

9.8

5.05

Ahmedabad

11.7

3.67

11.9

4.48

12.5

4.29

Mumbai

4.9

2.18

4.8

2.67

5.0

2.72

Bhopal

3.3

0.97

4.2

1.41

5.3

1.78

Hyderabad

7.1

2.56

8.2

2.87

8.8

2.87

Bangalore

14.8

3.42

15.0

3.15

15.1

2.96

Chennai

5.3

0.81

5.9

1.33

5.4

2.00


Statement V: City-wise Inflation Rates (Concld.)

Survey
Period

City

Current

3 months ahead

1 year ahead

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Mean

Std. Dev.

Sep-09

Guwahati

5.7

2.93

4.6

3.49

5.1

3.18

Patna

13.4

2.87

14.2

2.58

14.3

2.51

Kolkata

1.4

1.90

2.1

2.31

2.9

2.48

Lucknow

10.2

5.41

11.0

5.28

11.4

5.20

Delhi

6.2

4.86

6.9

5.21

8.1

5.22

Jaipur

11.8

4.23

12.8

4.03

13.4

4.38

Ahmedabad

9.4

4.23

10.0

4.39

10.4

4.41

Mumbai

12.1

5.46

11.9

5.82

11.9

5.60

Bhopal

2.3

1.90

4.3

2.58

7.5

3.53

Hyderabad

15.6

1.56

16.1

1.02

16.2

0.92

Bangalore

15.7

2.02

15.8

1.78

16.0

1.43

Chennai

3.4

0.94

4.2

1.06

3.8

1.73

Dec-09

Guwahati

13.3

2.85

13.7

2.51

14.3

2.22

Patna

12.3

2.41

13.0

2.55

13.3

2.57

Kolkata

11.9

2.70

12.1

2.84

12.7

2.91

Lucknow

6.1

3.40

7.0

3.38

7.1

3.64

Delhi

11.2

4.74

11.9

4.74

12.1

5.04

Jaipur

13.2

2.96

14.2

3.03

14.7

3.60

Ahmedabad

9.1

3.49

10.9

3.51

11.6

2.99

Mumbai

15.3

2.71

14.2

4.83

14.8

3.92

Bhopal

9.6

4.47

10.8

4.51

11.8

4.67

Hyderabad

15.2

2.62

15.5

2.33

15.7

2.05

Bangalore

15.4

2.19

15.4

2.17

15.6

1.83

Chennai

3.4

0.76

4.2

1.01

3.4

1.77

Mar-10

Guwahati

8.8

2.22

9.9

2.25

10.9

2.41

Patna

10.7

1.30

11.5

1.42

11.6

1.47

Kolkata

8.7

1.58

8.5

2.99

8.8

3.32

Lucknow

9.6

3.37

10.4

3.30

10.6

3.35

Delhi

10.8

3.95

11.0

4.80

12.2

4.50

Jaipur

13.7

2.58

14.4

2.45

15.3

2.38

Ahmedabad

9.4

2.86

11.1

3.03

12.2

2.29

Mumbai

14.3

3.67

12.9

5.41

13.5

4.95

Bhopal

8.3

3.53

9.4

3.60

10.6

3.93

Hyderabad

12.7

4.13

12.5

4.45

12.6

4.43

Bangalore

15.7

2.26

15.8

2.05

15.9

1.77

Chennai

3.9

0.91

4.4

1.51

3.6

1.47

Jun-10

Guwahati

10.0

2.92

11.1

2.63

12.9

2.35

Patna

11.9

1.89

12.7

2.07

12.9

2.04

Kolkata

8.9

1.57

8.4

2.85

9.2

3.24

Lucknow

11.8

3.55

12.9

3.26

13.0

3.15

Delhi

10.8

4.05

11.4

4.39

12.3

4.39

Jaipur

13.6

2.86

14.1

3.39

15.0

2.91

Ahmedabad

9.1

2.24

11.2

2.79

12.1

2.01

Mumbai

14.2

3.24

12.2

5.91

12.6

5.67

Bhopal

8.9

1.15

10.2

1.93

11.4

2.92

Hyderabad

12.3

3.54

13.2

4.36

13.6

4.04

Bangalore

15.6

1.95

15.8

1.68

16.0

1.47

Chennai

8.0

1.37

8.4

2.22

7.7

2.73




Appendix I (Contd.)

Description of Parameters

Food Products

(i)

Cereals (Wheat, Rice, Pulses etc), Fruits, Vegetables, Sugar, Edible oils, Dairy products and bakery products, Tea, coffee

 

(ii)

Meat, fish and sea products

 

(iii)

Soft drinks carbonated and mineral water, Beverages

 

(iv)

Bidi, cigarette and other tobacco products like zarda, pan masala and related products etc.

Non-Food Products

(i)

Clothes and wearing apparels

 

(ii)

Pharmaceutical and Medicines, Cleaning and polishing products, Soaps and detergents

 

(iii)

Rubber and rubber products, Tyres and tubes

 

(iv)

Plastic and plastic products

 

(v)

Leather and leather products (footwear, etc.)

 

(vi)

Paper and paper products (stationery, etc.)

 

(vii)

Petroleum and coal products

 

(viii)

Basic chemical and chemical products, Dyes and dye stuff

 

(ix)

Basic metal non-metallic mineral products, etc.

House holds Durables

(i)

Audiovisual equipment (Radio, television, video camera telephone microphone, mobile, etc.)

 

(ii)

Furniture, Wood and wood products

 

(iii)

Washing machines, Air cooler and Air conditioner

 

(iv)

Personal computer

 

(v)

Watches and clocks, etc.

Housing

(i)

Construction and maintenance of residential/office premises

 

(ii)

Site preparation

Services

(i)

Computer-related activities like computer hardware/software consultancy, data processing, computer-related education institute

 

(ii)

Health and social work

 

(iii)

Banking/postal services

 

(iv)

Activities of membership organisations

 

(v)

Other business activities like washing, cleaning, hairdressing, courier activities, etc.


Appendix I (Concld.)

Code Lists for filling in Respondents’ Codes:

A. Zone Codes

Sr.No.

Zone

Zone Code

1

Mumbai

1

2

Kolkata

2

3

Chennai

3

4

Delhi

4

B. City Codes

Zone

Sr.No

City Name

City Code

Mumbai
1
Mumbai

600

 
2
Ahmedabad

540

 
3
Bhopal

700

Kolkata
4
Kolkata

100

 
5
Guwahati

010

 
6
Patna

060

Chennai
7
Chennai

900

 
8
Hyderabad

800

 
9
Bangalore

840

Delhi
10
Delhi

290

 
11
Jaipur

500

 
12
Lucknow

200

C. Gender Codes

Sr.No.

Gender

Gender Code

1

Male

1

2

Female

2

D. Category Codes

Sr. No.

Category of Respondent

Category Code

1

Financial sector employees

1

2

Other employees

2

3

Self-employed

3

4

Housewife

4

5

Retired persons

5

6

Daily workers

6

7

Other category

7

E. Age Group Codes

Sr.No.

Age Group

Age group code

1

Up to 25 years

1

2

25 to 30 years

2

3

30 to 35 years

3

4

35 to 40 years

4

5

40 to 45 years

5

6

45 to 50 years

6

7

50 to 55 years

7

8

55 to 60 years

8

9

60 years and above

9


* Prepared in the Survey Division of Department of Statistics and Information Management. The previous article on the subject was published in May 2010 Bulletin giving detailed technical note on conceptualisation of this survey along with the survey results from September 2008 to March 2010.

RbiTtsCommonUtility

PLAYING
LISTEN

Related Assets

RBI-Install-RBI-Content-Global

RbiSocialMediaUtility

Install the RBI mobile application and get quick access to the latest news!

Scan Your QR code to Install our app

RbiWasItHelpfulUtility

Was this page helpful?