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Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: July-September 2011 (55th Round)1

This article presents the survey findings of Industrial Outlook Survey conducted for July-September 2011 quarter, the 55th round in the series. It gives an assessment of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector, for the quarter July-September 2011, and their expectations for the ensuing quarter October-December 2011. The survey results signal further weakened business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector for assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter. The Business Expectation Index, a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each study quarter, dropped to 109.4 from 116.3 for assessment quarter and to 118.8 from 121.5 for expectation quarter; however, it still remains well above 100, the threshold that separates contraction from expansion.

Highlights

  • The demand conditions based on Production, Order books, Capacity Utilisation, Imports and Exports showed signs of further moderation during the assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter as compared to the previous round of the survey as well as the corresponding quarter of previous year. This  is  reflected in decline in net response2 in favour of higher Production, Order books, Capacity Utilisation, Imports and Exports.

  • Moderation in demand conditions anticipated by manufacturing sector during expectation quarter of the previous survey round is well reflected in assessment quarter of the current survey round.  

  • Financial condition showed a lower optimism in both the assessment and expectation quarters. Net responses for availability of finance further declined.  The cost of external finance is perceived to rise further. The pressure from cost of raw materials which mounted in the last few quarters continued, as majority of respondents expected cost of raw material to rise. Net responses on selling price and profit margin further declined in both the quarters under review which indicates decline in pricing power of the manufacturing sector.

  • Industry-wise analysis shows that majority of the industry groups especially Cement and Textiles reported lower optimism on demand conditions. Cement and Textiles industries also expressed lowest optimism in Overall Financial situation.

  • Size-wise analysis shows that demand conditions turned less optimistic across all size classes which was more pronounced in case of smaller size companies’ (Production < ` 100cr.) Similar trend was observed for financial conditions.

  • About half of the respondents expressed Production Constraints for attaining normal production level during July-September 2011.

I. Introduction:

The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) on a quarterly basis since 1998. The Survey gives insight into the perception of the public and private limited companies engaged in manufacturing activities about their own performance and prospects. The assessment of business sentiments for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing quarter are based on qualitative responses on 20 major parameters covering overall business situation, financial situation, demand indicators, price, profit margins and employment situation. The survey provides useful forward-looking inputs for policymakers, analysts and business alike.

II. Data Coverage and Methodology3

II.1 Sample Size

The sample covers a panel of about 2,000 public and private limited companies, mostly with paid-up capital above ` 50 lakh   in the manufacturing sector. The fieldwork for the survey was carried out by an agency during the three-month period ending September 2011. The panel of respondents is kept uniform to the extent possible with periodic updating in the case of addition of new companies or exclusion of closed/merged companies. The sample is chosen so as to get a good representation of size and industry.

II.2 Response to the Survey

The survey elicited response from 1528 (response rate 76%) manufacturing companies.

II.3 Survey Schedule

The survey schedule consists of qualitative questions containing five blocks (Annex) and the target respondents are senior management personnel or finance heads of the companies.

III. Survey Findings:

III.1  Demand conditions

The survey collects perceptions of the Indian manufacturers about prominent demand-related parameters, namely, Production, Order Books, Capacity Utilisation, Inventory, Exports and Imports.

III.1.1  Production

The net response favouring higher production registered a decline from 32.1 per cent to 22.6 per cent for the assessment quarter and from 40.6 per cent to 39.9 per cent for the expectation quarter (Table 1 and Chart 1).

1

III.1.2 Order Books

The order books position of the manufacturing companies has also shown similar trend with moderation of the net responses for the assessment and expectation quarter. (Table 2 and Chart 2).

2

III.1.3 Pending order

The pending order position has improved for both the quarters under review, as some companies shifted their responses from ‘above normal’/’normal’ to ‘below normal’ category. (Table 3 and Chart 3).

3

III.1.4 Capacity Utilisation

The survey collects views of manufacturing companies on change in capacity utilisation level (increase/decrease / no change) for the main product, level of capacity utilisation compared to the average in the last four quarters (above normal/ below normal/ normal); and assessment of production capacity with regard to expected demand in the next six months (more than adequate/less than adequate/ adequate).  While 57 per cent of the respondents reported no change in the capacity utilisation of their main product, there is a moderation in capacity utilisation level over previous quarter on net response basis during both the quarters under review (Table 4 and Chart 4).

4

III.1.5   Inventory of Raw Materials & Finished Goods

Majority of the respondents (80-84 per cent) reported to have maintained the average level of inventory of raw materials for the assessment as well as expectation quarters. Similar trend is observed for the inventory of finished goods (Table 5). Around 14 per cent of the respondents assessed their raw material inventory levels to be above average during the assessment quarter. This proportion is marginally lower in the expectation quarter.

III.1.6 Exports and Imports

The survey reveals lower optimism of the manufacturing sector in terms of growth in exports and imports. The net response for exports declined from 18.2 per cent to 13.1 per cent whereas, for imports it declined from 17.6 per cent to 15.7 per cent in the assessment quarter. Similar decline in net response for exports and imports was observed for the expectation quarter (Table 6 ,Table 7 and Chart 5).

5

III.1.7 Employment Situation

About 70 per cent of the respondents reported ‘no change’ in their labour force. Net response for expectation quarter declined to 16.5 per cent from 19.4 per cent. (Table 8 and Chart 6).

6

III.2 Financial Parameters

The survey assesses sentiments about financial conditions based on the parameters, viz., overall financial situation, working capital finance requirement (excluding internal sources of funds), availability of finance (both internal and external sources), cost of external finance, cost of raw material, selling price and profit margin.

III.2.1 Overall Financial Situation

Overall financial situation has shown a further decline in optimism in the assessment quarter. The net response for better financial situation in assessment quarter decreased to 11.7 per cent from 24.1 per cent. The manufacturers also foresee decline in overall financial situation for the expectation quarter as the net response declined to 26.3 per cent from 30.6 per cent a quarter ago (Table 9, Chart: 7).

7

III. 2.2 Working Capital Finance requirement and Availability of Finance

The sentiment for working capital finance requirement (excluding internal source of funds) in the assessment quarter has moderated with net response declining from 35.7 per cent to 31.1 per cent. However, marginal improvement is anticipated for the expectation quarter (Table 10).

The survey shows that lower percentage of respondents assesses/expects Availability of Finance to improve in the current/ensuing quarter.  This is reflected in the lower net response for both the quarters under review (Table 11, Chart 8).

8

III. 2.3 Cost of External Finance

Increasingly a  larger number of respondents perceived rise in the cost of funds in recent rounds of the survey.  53.7 per cent of the respondents feel that the cost of external funds have raised further during July-September2011 (Table 12). One quarter ahead outlook also signals similar sentiment.

III.2.4 Cost of Raw Material

63.3 per cent of respondents have reported a further increase in cost of raw material in the assessment quarter, though the pessimism (increase in cost of raw material) has marginally declined from the previous round. A similar scenario is reported in the expectation quarter (Table 13, Chart 9).

III.2.5 Selling price

The survey seeks responses on change in selling prices (ex-factory unit prices) of the manufactured products on aggregate basis. Net response for selling price has dropped in both the quarters under review, indicating the marginal softening of output prices (Table 14, Chart 9).

9

III.2.6 Profit margin

The survey seeks opinion of manufacturing companies on changes in profit margin (gross profits as percentage to net sales). While more than half of the respondents perceive no change in the profit margin, net response on profit margin declined in both the quarters under review (Table 15 and Chart  10) indicating a fall in pricing power in the manufacturing sector.

10

III.3 Overall Business Situation

III.3.1 Overall Business Situation

The overall business situation is a parameter that captures the overall confidence of manufacturing companies. The net response of the overall business situation for assessment quarter shows marked decline to 18.7 per cent from 32.6 per cent in the previous quarter. The net response for expectation quarter has also shown similar trend (Table 16, Chart 11).

11

III.3.2 Business Expectation Index (BEI)

The Business Expectation Index gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter. This index is computed as the weighted average of net responses from all the industries on nine select performance parameters where the weights are the industry’s share in Gross Value Added (GVA). The selected parameters are Overall Business Situation, Production, Order Books, Inventory of Raw Materials, Inventory of Finished Goods, Profit Margin, Employment, Exports and Capacity Utilisation. The methodology for compilation of the BEI is given in the article Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends since 2001 published in October 2009 Bulletin.

BEI has declined considerably to 109.3 from 116.3 for assessment quarter and to 118.8   from 121.5 for the expectation quarter which indicates continued slowdown of the economy (Table17 Chart 12).

12

III.3.3 Industry-wise and Size-wise Analysis

The industry-wise analysis shows that majority of the industry groups, more visibly ‘Cement’ and’ Textiles’ are less optimistic on demand conditions. These industries also expressed lowest optimism in overall financial situation. On cost of finance, pessimism was observed in all the industries and more visibly in ‘Cement’ and ‘Basic metals’ industries.

On Size-wise analysis, demand conditions were less optimistic across all size classes (Table18), which was more pronounced for smaller companies (Annual Production < ` 100 cr). Similar trend was observed for financial conditions as well. However, some optimism was expressed by bigger companies (Annual Production of ‘` 100 Crore and above’) in availability of finance.

III.3.5 Constraints for attaining the normal production level

About 50 per cent of companies reported Production Constraints for attaining the normal production level during the quarter July-September 2011. Major constraints reported are lack of domestic demand, Shortage of power, shortage of raw material, shortage of working capital finance and lack of export demand. Industry-wise break-up reveals that companies in the industry groups, viz, Textiles, Basic metals, Cement, Fertilisers and Transport equipment reported more production constraints (Table 19).

III.3.6 Survey Results and Official Statistics

Chart 13 show the movements of annual growth rates of quarterly GDP-Manufacturing, IIP-Manufacturing (Base 2004-05) and the BEI based on assessment and expectations. It is observed that BEI has captured most of the turning points of the official statistics.

13

Table 1 : Assessment & Expectations for Production

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

33.1

26.2

40.6

6.9

32.5

22.6

44.9

9.9

Jul-Sep 09

1180

40.9

18.3

40.8

22.6

38.5

16.1

45.5

22.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

44.0

15.2

40.8

28.9

46.0

11.0

43.0

35.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

49.0

12.5

38.5

36.5

48.8

8.8

42.3

40.0

Apr-Jun 10

1092

48.4

13.0

38.6

35.4

45.8

9.9

44.3

35.9

Jul-Sep 10

1403

51.6

11.6

36.8

40.0

49.7

9.4

40.9

40.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

53.9

10.0

36.0

43.9

55.9

6.8

37.3

49.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

52.1

10.7

37.1

41.4

55.4

6.8

37.7

48.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

47.8

15.7

36.5

32.1

49.1

9.1

41.8

40.0

July-Sep 1

 1528 

40.8 

18.3 

40.9 

22.6 

49.6

9.0

41.5

40.6

Oct-Sep 11

 

 

 

 

 

49.5

9.5

41.0

39.9

# Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. this is applicable throughout the article .



Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order books

(Percentage responses)#

Survey  Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

28.4

29.3

42.3

-0.9

31.0

24.6

44.4

6.4

Jul-Sep 09

1180

38.2

17.7

44.1

20.5

35.5

18.7

45.8

16.8

Oct-Dec 09

1256

39.5

13.6

46.8

25.9

43.5

11.2

45.3

32.3

Jan-Mar 10

1079

43.5

11.6

44.9

31.9

44.8

9.1

46.1

35.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

41.8

10.5

47.7

31.3

42.3

8.9

48.8

33.4

Jul-Sep 10

1403

45.4

9.3

45.3

36.1

44.4

8.1

47.5

36.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

46.9

9.1

44.0

37.9

49.8

5.1

45.1

44.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

44.8

10.1

45.2

34.7

49.6

5.6

44.8

44.0

Apr-Jun 11

1504

42.5

14.4

43.0

28.1

45.9

7.5

46.6

38.4

July-Sep 11

  1528 

 37.9 

17.6 

44.5 

20.3 

45.4

9.4

45.2

35.9

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

43.5

10.1

46.4

33.4


Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

29.1

4.5

66.5

24.6

28.0

4.8

59.4

23.2

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.1

3.7

75.2

17.4

22.9

3.8

73.4

19.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

17.1

5.6

77.3

11.6

15.2

4.2

80.6

11.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

15.5

6.7

77.8

8.8

12.2

6.5

81.3

5.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

14.3

7.4

78.3

6.9

12.9

6.4

80.7

6.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

12.0

6.9

81.1

5.1

11.4

7.3

81.3

4.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

11.6

7.6

80.8

3.9

8.8

7.3

83.9

1.5

Jan-Mar 11

1524

12.5

6.9

80.6

5.5

9.8

8.1

82.1

1.7

Apr-Jun 11

1504

13.3

6.7

80.0

6.5

10.4

6.6

83.0

3.9

Jul-Sep 11

1528

18.0

4.7

77.3

13.3

11.8

7.2

81.0

4.5

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

13.6

6.0

80.4

7.6

Pending Orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic

Table 4: Assessment & Expectations for Capacity Utilisation

(Percentage responses)#

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

Apr-June 2011

July-Sep 2011

July-Sep 2011

Oct-Dec 2011

Capacity Utilisation (main product)

Increase

30.5

26.4

33.9

32.1

No Change

56.2

57.0

57.2

57.9

Decrease

13.3

16.5

8.9

10.0

Net Response

17.2

9.9

25.0

22.2

Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)

Above normal

13.8

10.8

14.3

12.7

Normal

71.7

72.0

75.7

75.0

Below Normal

14.5

17.2

10.0

12.3

Net Response

-0.7

-6.4

4.3

0.3

Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected demand in next 6 months)

More than adequate

11.8

13.2

11.2

14.2

Adequate

80.8

78.8

82.8

79.1

Less than adequate

7.4

8.0

5.9

6.7

Net Response

4.3

5.2

5.3

7.4


Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods)

 (Percentage responses) #

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

Apr-June  2011

July-Sep  2011

July-September 2011

Oct-Dec 2011

Inventory of raw material

Below average

6.6

6.9

5.7

5.4

Average

81.1

79.6

85.8

84.0

Above average

12.3

13.5

8.5

10.6

Net Response

-5.7

-6.6

-2.9

-5.2

Inventory of Finished goods

Below average

6.7

6.3

6.2

5.1

Average

79.5

77.9

84.5

83.4

Above average

13.8

15.8

9.3

11.5

Net Response

-7.0

-9.5

-3.1

-6.5

Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic

Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Exports

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

17.4

30.9

51.7

-13.5

19.5

23.3

57.3

-3.8

Jul-Sep 09

1180

20.9

23.8

55.3

-2.9

20.6

20.5

59

0.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

27.3

18.1

54.6

9.2

27.0

14.5

58.5

12.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

28.9

16.2

54.9

12.7

31.2

11.0

57.8

20.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.1

13.7

57.2

15.3

30.0

11.5

58.5

18.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

31.8

11.8

56.5

20.0

30.8

10.1

59.1

20.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

34.4

11.4

54.2

23.1

34.4

8.3

57.3

26.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

13.2

54.7

18.9

34.4

8.1

57.5

26.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

31.8

13.6

54.6

18.2

33.4

9.4

57.1

24.0

July-Sep 11

1528

28.7

15.7

55.6

13.1

35.1

9.2

55.7

25.8

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

32.7

10.6

56.8

22.1


Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for Import

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

17.1

18.4

64.5

-1.3

14.9

16.3

68.8

-1.4

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.8

14.0

64.2

7.8

17.0

12.4

70.6

4.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

23.3

10.3

66.5

13.0

21.3

9.8

68.9

11.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

25.5

8.4

66.1

17.1

23.4

6.5

70.1

16.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

27.7

6.8

65.6

20.9

22.9

5.9

71.2

17.1

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.6

6.6

64.7

22.0

27.0

5.4

67.6

21.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

27.3

6.4

66.3

20.9

27.3

5.1

67.6

22.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

27.0

7.1

65.8

19.9

26.7

5.4

67.9

21.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

25.0

7.4

67.6

17.6

25.1

6.2

68.6

18.9

July-Sep 11

1528 

23.3 

7.6 

69.2 

15.7 

25.1

6.1

68.9

19.0

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

23.1

6.2

70.7

16.9


Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

11.9

15.2

72.9

-3.3

10.5

15.6

74.0

-5.1

Jul-Sep 09

1180

14.2

10.1

75.7

4.1

11.5

10.0

78.6

1.5

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.2

7.9

73.9

10.3

15.8

7.0

77.2

8.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.0

7.3

71.7

13.7

18.2

6.1

75.6

12.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

21.7

7.0

71.3

14.7

19.5

5.9

74.7

13.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

25.1

6.3

68.6

18.7

21.8

5.1

73.1

16.8

Oct-Dec 10

1561

24.8

5.4

69.9

19.4

24.7

3.6

71.7

21.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

24.3

5.6

70.1

18.7

25.0

4.3

70.7

20.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

24.3

6.1

69.6

18.2

23.0

5.6

71.4

17.4

July-Sep 11

1528

22.7 

7.1 

70.2 

15.6 

24.0

4.6

71.5

19.4

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

21.7

5.2

73.1

16.5


Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

26.4

19.4

54.2

7.0

27.8

19.4

52.7

8.4

Jul-Sep 09

1180

34.3

12.5

53.2

21.8

32.8

12.8

54.4

20.0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

38.8

9.3

51.8

29.5

40.5

7.0

52.5

33.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

42.3

6.5

51.3

35.8

44.3

5.0

50.6

39.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

39.1

6.9

54.0

32.2

41.6

5.3

53.1

36.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

38.7

8.1

53.2

30.6

39.7

5.6

54.8

34.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

42.8

5.7

51.5

37.1

44.9

5.3

49.7

39.6

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

8.6

55.8

27.1

45.5

4.4

50.1

41.1

Apr-Jun 11

1504

34.5

10.4

55.0

24.1

38.6

5.2

56.1

33.4

July-Sep 11

1528 

27.8 

16.0 

56.2 

11.7 

37.4

6.8

55.7

30.6

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

35.5

9.2

55.3

26.3


Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

57.0

24.6

9.2

24.6

31.1

7.9

61.0

23.2

Jul-Sep 09

1180

31.2

7.4

61.4

23.8

32.3

6.0

61.7

26.3

Oct-Dec 09

1256

35.2

6.4

58.4

28.8

34.7

4.3

61.0

30.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

35.8

5.3

58.9

30.5

36.8

4.0

59.2

32.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

34.7

4.8

60.5

29.9

31.9

4.3

63.8

27.7

Jul-Sep 10

1403

35.6

6.3

58.1

29.3

35.2

4.1

60.7

31.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

41.3

4.1

54.6

37.1

38.4

3.6

58.0

34.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

41.0

4.1

54.9

36.9

40.7

3.0

56.3

37.8

Apr-Jun 11

1504

41.1

5.4

53.5

35.7

37.4

4.4

58.2

32.9

July-Sep 11

1528 

36.8 

5.7 

57.4 

31.1 

38.7

5.1

56.3

33.6

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

38.4

4.2

57.5

34.2


Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

24.8

13.6

61.6

11.2

23.8

14.5

61.7

9.3

Jul-Sep 09

1180

28.0

8.8

63.2

19.2

27.0

10.4

62.6

16.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

30.3

7.2

62.5

23.0

31.7

5.6

62.7

26.1

Jan-Mar 10

1079

32.1

6.4

61.5

25.7

33.7

4.5

61.8

29.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

32.3

5.9

61.8

26.4

31.2

4.4

64.4

26.8

Jul-Sep 10

1403

32.6

6.0

61.4

26.6

32.9

4.4

62.7

28.5

Oct-Dec10

1561

35.9

5.6

58.4

30.3

35.3

4.0

60.6

31.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

8.3

59.6

23.8

36.4

4.0

59.6

32.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

30.2

8.7

61.1

21.5

32.6

5.3

62.2

27.3

July-Sep11

1528

24.0

12.0

64.4

12.1

30.0

5.8

64.2

24.2

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

28.7

8.5

62.7

20.2

Improvement in Availability of finance is optimism


Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Oct-Dec 09

1256

9.0

23.8

67.2

-14.7

 

 

 

 

Jan-Mar 10

1079

7.7

23.6

68.7

-15.9

6.8

25.1

68.1

-18.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

7.0

28.9

64.0

-21.9

6.1

26.8

67.1

-20.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

5.0

33.2

61.8

-28.3

5.7

29.0

65.3

-23.3

Oct-Dec10

1561

4.0

37.9

58.1

-33.9

3.8

32.1

64.2

-28.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

3.5

46.0

50.6

-42.5

3.7

35.0

61.3

-31.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

3.5

52.5

44.1

-49.0

3.9

38.9

57.1

-35.0

July-Sep 11

1528

3.5

53.7

42.9

-50.2

4.0

43.7

52.4

-39.7

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

3.4

44.4

52.2

-41.0

Cost of external finance ‘Decrease’ is optimistic


Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

14.3

40.6

45.1

-26.3

14.3

30.5

33.7

-16.2

Jul-Sep 09

1180

8.1

49.8

42.1

-41.7

8.7

35.8

55.5

-27.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

6.3

53.4

40.3

-47.1

5.0

43.4

51.6

-38.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

2.2

62.3

35.5

-60.2

3.6

47.9

48.5

-44.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

2.5

65.2

32.3

-62.7

2.2

50.8

47.0

-48.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

3.5

61.8

34.7

-58.3

2.7

52.0

45.2

-49.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

2.4

66.3

31.3

-63.9

3.3

52.6

44.1

-49.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

1.7

73.7

24.6

-71.9

2.3

55.9

41.8

-53.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

4.5

70.0

25.6

-65.5

2.5

59.5

38.0

-57.0

July-Sep 11

1528

5.3

63.3

31.4

-58.1

4.8

56.6

38.6

-51.7

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

3.7

53.4

42.9

-49.7

Cost of raw material ‘Decrease’ is optimistic


Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

17.0

24.4

58.0

-7.4

14.5

23.6

61.9

-9.1

Jul-Sep 09

1180

19.4

19.2

61.4

0.2

17.2

17.2

65.6

0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.6

15.9

65.5

2.6

19.2

13.2

67.6

6.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

24.6

12.2

63.2

12.4

20.7

10.9

68.4

9.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.3

12.0

58.6

17.3

22.4

9.1

68.5

13.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.0

14.2

57.8

13.8

24.4

9.2

66.3

15.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

30.2

10.0

59.8

20.2

25.7

8.7

65.5

17.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

9.2

55.1

26.5

26.7

8.1

65.2

18.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

35.0

13.4

51.6

21.5

30.6

7.0

62.4

23.7

July-Sep 11

1528 

27.3 

16.6 

56.1 

10.7 

29.1

10.7

60.2

18.3

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

26.8

10.8

62.4

16.0

Selling price ‘Increase’ is optimistic


Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

13.4

38.5

48.1

-25.1

15.4

34.0

50.6

-18.6

Jul-Sep 09

1180

16.9

32.0

51.1

-15.1

16.0

29.4

54.5

-13.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.1

28.0

54.0

-9.9

20.2

23.0

56.8

-2.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.7

24.6

53.9

-2.9

21.1

20.1

58.8

1.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

20.2

25.0

54.9

-4.8

22.1

18.9

59.0

3.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

21.3

23.9

54.8

-2.5

22.2

19.1

58.7

3.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

22.7

23.1

54.2

-0.4

25.2

16.1

58.7

9.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

20.8

25.1

54.1

-4.3

25.6

17.2

57.2

8.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

18.2

28.1

53.6

-9.9

22.2

18.4

59.4

3.8

Jul-Sep 11

1528 

15.2 

32.3 

52.5 

-17.1 

22.0

19.5

58.5

2.5

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

20.3

21.9

57.8

-1.6

Increase in Profit margin is optimism


Table 16: Assessment & Expectations of Overall Business Situation

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Apr-Jun 09

1242

30.7

21.4

47.9

9.3

31.8

20.6

47.6

11.2

Jul-Sep 09

1180

39.3

13.0

47.7

26.3

38.8

14.6

46.7

24.2

Oct-Dec 09

1256

46.0

10.1

43.9

36.0

47.2

7.4

45.4

39.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

50.5

7.4

42.1

43.1

50.4

5.5

44.2

44.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

47.8

7.1

45.0

40.7

47.3

6.1

46.6

41.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

46.7

8.0

45.3

38.7

47.6

6.2

46.2

41.5

Oct-Dec 10

1561

51.4

5.5

43.1

45.9

52.5

5.1

42.4

47.4

Jan-Mar 11

1524

46.0

7.4

46.6

38.6

54.2

4.1

41.8

50.1

Apr-Jun11

1504

42.8

10.1

47.1

32.6

47

5.6

47.4

41.4

Jul-Sep 11

1528 

34.1 

15.4 

50.5 

18.7 

46.6

6.8

46.6

39.8

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

 

 

43.1

8.0

48.9

35.2

Overall Business Situation ‘Better’ is optimistic


Table-17: Business Expectation Index based on Assessment and Expectations

Quarter

ASSESSMENT

EXPECTATIONS

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous
year

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous
year

Jan-Mar 00

122.8

-

-

 

-

-

Apr-Jun 00

115.2

-7.6

-

125.5

-

-

Jul-Sep 00

116.1

0.9

-

126.1

0.6

-

Oct-Dec 00

113.9

-2.2

-

124.4

-1.7

-

Jan-Mar 01

115.2

1.3

-7.6

122.5

-1.8

-

Apr-Jun 01

109.9

-5.3

-5.3

120.7

-1.8

-4.8

Jul-Sep 01

108.7

-1.3

-7.4

118.9

-1.8

-7.2

Oct-Dec 01

100.7

-8.0

-13.2

119.5

0.6

-4.9

Jan-Mar 02

108.4

7.7

-6.8

105.3

-14.2

-17.3

Apr-Jun 02

110.8

2.4

0.9

112.3

7.0

-8.5

Jul-Sep 02

113.2

2.4

4.5

116.7

4.4

-2.2

Oct-Dec 02

113.8

0.6

13.1

121.2

4.6

1.7

Jan-Mar 03

118.4

4.6

10.0

119.7

-1.6

14.4

Apr-Jun 03

109.8

-8.6

-1.0

117.8

-1.8

5.6

Jul-Sep 03

114.3

4.5

1.1

117.2

-0.7

0.5

Oct-Dec 03

119.8

5.4

5.9

122.1

4.9

0.8

Jan-Mar 04

121.4

1.7

3.0

122.2

0.2

2.6

Apr-Jun 04

118.4

-3.0

8.6

121.5

-0.7

3.7

Jul-Sep 04

116.9

-1.5

2.6

120.0

-1.5

2.9

Oct-Dec 04

122.0

5.1

2.2

121.5

1.5

-0.6

Jan-Mar 05

122.5

0.5

1.1

123.2

1.7

1.0

Apr-Jun 05

117.5

-5.0

-0.9

120.7

-2.5

-0.8

Jul-Sep 05

114.9

-2.6

-2.0

119.6

-1.1

-0.4

Oct-Dec 05

124.3

9.4

2.3

122.7

3.1

1.2

Jan-Mar 06

120.7

-3.6

-1.8

125.7

3.0

2.5

Apr-Jun 06

121.8

1.1

4.3

120.5

-5.2

-0.2

Jul-Sep 06

120.7

-1.1

5.8

126.5

6.0

6.9

Oct-Dec 06

123.9

3.2

-0.4

125.3

-1.2

2.6

Jan-Mar 07

127.7

3.8

7.0

126.5

1.2

0.8

Apr-Jun 07

115.8

-11.9

-6.0

127.5

1.0

7.0

Jul-Sep 07

118.9

3.1

-1.8

121.1

-6.4

-5.4

Oct-Dec 07

115.9

-3.0

-8.0

124.4

3.3

-0.9

Jan-Mar 08

122.8

6.9

-4.9

118.6

-5.8

-7.9

Apr-Jun 08

116.2

-6.6

0.4

123.2

4.6

-4.3

Jul-Sep 08

113.4

-2.8

-5.5

122.1

-1.1

1.0

Oct-Dec 08

104.1

-9.3

-11.8

118.9

-3.2

-5.5

Jan-Mar 09

82.6

-21.5

-40.2

111.9

-7.0

-6.7

Apr-Jun 09

99.4

16.8

-16.8

96.4

-15.5

-26.8

Jul-Sep 09

107.2

7.8

-6.2

109.9

13.5

-12.2

Oct-Dec 09

112.8

5.6

8.7

116.4

6.5

-2.5

Jan-Mar 10

118.5

5.7

35.9

120.6

4.2

8.7

Apr-Jun 10

115.9

-2.6

16.5

119.8

-0.8

23.4

Jul-Sep 10

119.0

3.1

11.8

118.8

-1.0

8.9

Oct-Dec 10

122.8

3.8

10.0

126.5

7.7

10.1

Jan-Mar 11

122.0

-0.8

3.5

125.9

-0.6

5.3

Apr-Jun 11

116.3

-5.7

0.4

121.9

-0.6

5.3

Jul-Sep 11

109.4

-6.93

-9.67

121.5

-0.4

2.7

Oct-Dec 11

 

 

 

118.8

-2.69

-7.66


Table 18: Size-wise analysis: Annual Production and Paid-up Capital (PUC)

Net Response (%) for October-December 2011

Parameter

PUC-wise

Production-wise

Small

Medium

Big

Small

Medium

Big

Round 54

Round 55

Round 54

Round 55

Round 54

Round 55

Round 54

Round 55

Round 54

Round 55

Round 54

Round 55

Overall business situation

32.1

20.7

40.7

36.9

36.3

36.3

35.7

33.6

43.2

36.4

42.4

42.4

Overall Financial situation

22.2

16.4

31.3

27.6

31.1

31.1

26.6

23.7

34.6

28.6

30.2

27.1

Working Capital Finance Requirement

24.6

22.0

34.4

34.9

33.0

33.0

29.1

28.9

36

37.4

42.1

32.2

Availability of Finance

14.7

7.9

25.9

21.9

14.3

14.3

21

16.9

28

23.4

21.7

33.3

Cost of external finance

-29.5

-30.1

-40.4

-41.7

-42.2

-42.2

-31.5

-34.5

-44.7

-45.5

-52.3

-43.1

Production

34.3

26.9

41.6

41.2

40.4

40.4

35.4

37.2

45.1

41.5

43.3

37.9

Order Books

24.6

27.0

37.4

33.9

37.3

37.3

32.1

32.5

39.1

33.9

38

27.8

Pending Orders, if applicable

9.5

14.7

4.4

7.1

7.2

7.2

7.4

10.5

2.5

5.6

0.7

-2.0

Cost of raw materials

-54.5

-56.7

-51.9

-48.8

37.4

37.4

-53.2

-54.7

-50.8

-45.6

-49.4

-47.5

Inventory of raw materials

-5.5

-4.9

-2.8

-5.1

0.0

0.0

-1.8

-1.8

-3.5

-8.0

-4.4

-1.8

Inventory of Finished Goods

-3.1

-3.7

-2.9

-6.4

2.2

2.2

-1.6

-4.1

-4.4

-7.8

-3.8

-10.3

Capacity utilisation

14.7

6.7

26

23.3

26.4

26.4

22.9

18.0

27.3

24.3

23.7

23.7

Level of capacity utilisation

6.6

-1.8

3.6

0.0

-7.7

-7.7

1.7

-4.9

5.8

3.9

8.8

0.0

Assessment of the production capacity

4.9

6.2

4.8

7.6

11.0

11.0

4.2

4.3

6.2

9.9

6.4

10.3

Employment in the company

14

6.7

20.6

16.7

7.7

7.7

14.2

7.4

23.1

19.6

25.2

1.7

Exports, if applicable

11

9.8

27.6

23.3

26.0

26.0

18.1

14.0

29.8

27.9

38.7

30.8

Imports, if any

4.7

6.9

20.6

18.2

20.2

20.2

11.9

13.6

22.5

19.7

29.9

18.5

Selling prices

11

14.2

19.4

16.0

21.8

21.8

16.3

13.5

19.5

17.7

21.9

25.9

If increase expected in selling prices, rate of such increase

18

13.6

13.1

17.4

5.5

5.5

11.9

17.5

13.4

16.5

16.7

20.5

Profit Margin

-11.1

-16.1

3.6

-0.7

5.6

5.6

-1.5

-7.4

5.5

2.0

7.2

-5.2

Smaller companies (annual production less than ` 100 crore/PUC less than ` 1 crore).
Medium companies (annual production between ` 100 crore to ` 1000 crore /PUC between  `. 1 crore to ` 100 crore)
Big companies (annual production above ` 1000 crore/ PUC above ` 100 crore)


Table 19: Constraints for attaining the normal production level Industry-wise

 

Production Constraint

NO

YES

Count

%

Count

%

FOOD PRODUCTS

64

50.0%

64

50.0%

TEXTILES

66

34.0%

128

66.0%

BASIC METALS AND METAL PRODUCTS

81

37.0%

138

63.0%

ELECTRICAL MACHINERY

50

50.0%

50

50.0%

OTHER MACHINERY AND APPARATUS

114

59.1%

79

40.9%

TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

50

48.5%

53

51.5%

FERTILIZERS

15

48.4%

16

51.6%

PHARMACEUTICAL AND MEDICINES

55

65.5%

29

34.5%

BASIC CHEMICALS

61

56.5%

47

43.5%

RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS

52

53.1%

46

46.9%

PAPER AND PAPER PRODUCTS

23

48.9%

24

51.1%

CEMENT

17

45.9%

20

54.1%

WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS

12

75.0%

4

25.0%

DIVERSIFIED

16

72.7%

6

27.3%

OTHER INDUSTRIES

84

56.8%

64

43.2%

All companies

760

49.7%

768

50.3%


1 Prepared in the Division of Enterprise Surveys of Department of Statistics and Information Management.  The previous article on the subject based on the 54th survey round (April-June 2011) was published in August 2011 Bulletin.

2 Net Response is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting an increase and that of reporting decrease.

3The methodology used for the analysis has been provided in the article Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends since 2001 in October 2009 bulletin.

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