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Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: October-December 2011 (56th Round)*

This article presents the survey findings of Industrial Outlook Survey conducted for October-December 2011 quarter, the 56th round in the series. It gives the assessment of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector, for the quarter October-December 2011, and their expectations for the ensuing quarter January-March 2012. The survey results signal moderation of business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector for assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter. The Business Expectation Index, a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each study quarter, marginally increased to 110.1 from 109.4 for assessment quarter but declined to 117.2 from 118.8 for expectation quarter; however, it still remains well above 100, the threshold that separates contraction from expansion.

Highlights

  • Though marginal improvement in Production and Capacity utilization (CU) was reported in the assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter as compared to the previous round of the survey, decline in net response1 for Order Books, Exports, Imports indicates moderate demand conditions in Indian manufacturing sector.

  • Financial condition showed lower optimism in both the quarters. Net response on Availability of finance has been on decline in the financial year 2011-12.  While increasing proportion of respondents reported rise in ‘Cost of finance’ over previous 7 quarters, the trend appears to have slightly reversed for expectation quarter.  Most of the respondents felt that pressure from ‘cost of raw material’ continued and was expected to elevate further in the next quarter. The optimism on ‘selling price’ and ‘profit margins’ further declined in both the assessment and expectation quarter.

  • Industry-wise analysis showed that majority of the industry groups reported more pessimism about input cost and less optimism about profit margin. However, ‘Food products’, ‘Cement‘, ‘Electrical machinery’ and ‘Pharmaceuticals’ industries reported higher optimism in demand conditions.

  • Size-wise analysis showed that bigger size companies had higher optimism for demand conditions as compared with their smaller counterparts; however, these companies were less optimistic on financial conditions.

  • On constrains for attaining normal production level, around one third of the responding companies reported ‘Uncertainty in Economic Environment’ for the first time

Introduction:

The Reserve Bank of India has been conducting the Industrial Outlook Survey (IOS) on a quarterly basis since 1998. The Survey gives insight into the perception of the public and private limited companies engaged in manufacturing activities about their own performance and prospects. The assessment of business sentiments for the current quarter and expectations for the ensuing quarter are based on qualitative responses on 20 major parameters covering overall business situation, financial situation, demand indicators, price, profit margins and employment situation. The survey provides useful forward-looking inputs for policymakers, analysts and business alike.

II. Data Coverage and Methodology

II.1 Sample Size

The sample covers a panel of about 2,000 public and private limited companies, mostly with paid-up capital above `5 million in the manufacturing sector. The fieldwork for the survey was carried out by an agency during mid-October to mid-December 2011. The panel of respondents is kept uniform to the extent possible with periodic updating in the case of addition of new companies or exclusion of closed/merged companies. The sample is chosen so as to get a good representation of size and industry.

II.2 Response to the Survey

The survey elicited response from 1450 (response rate 72.5%) manufacturing companies.

II.3 Survey Schedule

The survey schedule consists of mainly qualitative questions containing five blocks and the target respondents are senior management personnel or finance heads of the companies.

III. Survey Findings

III.1 Demand conditions

The survey collects perceptions of the Indian manufacturers about prominent demand-related parameters, namely, Production, Order Books, Capacity Utilisation, Inventory, Exports and Imports.

III.1.1 Production

The net response favouring higher production registered a marginal improvement to 25.3 per cent from 22.6 per cent for the assessment quarter and to 40.4 per cent from 39.9 per cent for the expectation quarter (Table 1 and Chart 1).

1

III.1.2 Order Books

However the demand condition in   manufacturing companies, as measured by order books position showed a marginal decline in net responses for both the quarters under review (Table 2 and Chart 2).

2

III.1.3 Pending order

The pending order position was at normal or below normal level for most of the companies in assessment quarter and is expected to remain there in the expectation quarter (Table 3 and Chart 3).

3

III.1.4 Capacity Utilisation (CU)

The survey collects views of manufacturing companies on change in CU level (increase/decrease / no change) for the main product, level of CU compared to the average in the last four quarters (above normal/ below normal/ normal); and assessment of production capacity with regard to expected demand in the next six months (more than adequate/less than adequate/ adequate).

While about 57 per cent of the respondents reported ‘no change’ in the CU of their main product, a marginal improvement in net response was reported for both the quarters (Table 4  and Chart 4).

4

III.1.5 Inventory of Raw Materials & Finished Goods

Majority of the respondents (78 to 83 per cent) reported to have  the average level of inventory of raw materials and inventory of finished goods for the assessment as well as expectation quarter (Table 5).The sentiments on the inventory position relatively remained same as compared with  previous round of the survey.

III.1.6 Exports and Imports

The survey reveals lower optimism of the manufacturing sector in terms of growth in exports and imports. The net response for exports declined to 11.5 per cent from 13.1 per cent whereas, for imports it declined to 11.6 per cent from 15.7 per cent in the assessment quarter. Similar decline in net response for exports and imports is expected for the expectation quarter (Table 6 ,Table 7 and Chart 5, Chart 6 ).

5
 
6

III.1.7 Employment Situation

About 74 per cent of the respondents reported ‘no change’ in their labour force in the assessment quarter and outlook for employment also remained same. However, the net response for increased employment declined further in both the quarters under review (Table 8, Chart 7).

7

III.2 Financial Conditions

The survey assesses sentiments about financial conditions based on the parameters, viz., overall financial situation, working capital finance requirement (excluding internal sources of funds), and availability of finance (both internal and external sources), cost of external finance, cost of raw material, selling price and profit margin.

III.2.1 Overall Financial Situation

Overall financial situation showed further decline in optimism in the assessment quarter. The net response for better financial situation in assessment quarter decreased to 11.2 per cent from 11.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The manufacturers also foresee decline in overall financial situation for the expectation quarter as the net response is expected to decline to 25.2 per cent from 26.3 per cent (Table 9, Chart 8).

1

III. 2.2 Working Capital Finance requirement and Availability of Finance

The sentiment for working capital finance requirement (excluding internal source of funds) in the assessment quarter improved with net response increasing to 33.3 per cent from 31.1 per cent.  However, marginal decline is anticipated for the expectation quarter (Table 10).

The survey showed that higher percentage of respondents assesses/expects Availability of finance to worsen in the current/ensuing quarter.  The net response on ‘Availability of finance’ has been on decline in the financial year 2011-12 (Table 11, Chart 9).

1

III. 2.3 Cost of External Finance

The perception about rise in the cost of funds remained strong in the assessment quarter. The survey results reveal that 53.4 per cent of the respondents feel that cost of external fund have risen during October-December 2011 (Table 12). However, one quarter ahead outlook signals slight reversal  in sentiment about cost of funds.

III.2.4 Cost of Raw Material

The pressure from cost of raw material continued to increase in the assessment quarter and expected to elevate further in the next quarter. 66.3 per cent of respondents have reported further increase in cost of raw material in assessment quarter. Similarly 54.1 per cent of the respondents expected the cost of raw material to rise further in the expectation quarter (Table 13, Chart 10).

III.2.5 Selling price

The survey seeks responses on change in selling prices (ex-factory unit prices) of the manufactured products on aggregate basis. Despite a large percentage of respondents reporting cost pressure of raw material and interest, only about 24.6 per cent of them could increase the selling price over the previous quarter. Similar situation is expected in the next quarter as well (Table 14, Chart 10).

1

III.2.6 Profit margin

The survey seeks opinion of manufacturing companies on change in profit margin (gross profits as percentage to net sales). Around half of the respondents perceived ‘no change’ in profit margin, net response on increase in profit margin declined in both the quarters under review (Table 15 and Chart 11). This may be indication of lower pricing power in the manufacturing sector.

2

III.3 Overall Business Situation

III.3.1 Overall Business Situation

The overall business situation is a parameter that captures the overall confidence of manufacturing companies. The net response of the overall business situation for assessment quarter further declined to 17.7 per cent from 18.7 per cent in the previous quarter. The net response for expectation quarter also showed similar trend (Table 16, Chart 12).

3

III.3.2 Business Expectation Index (BEI)

The Business Expectation Index gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each quarter. This index is computed as a weighted average of net responses from all the industries on nine select performance parameters where the weights are the industry’s share in Gross Value Added (GVA). The selected parameters are Overall Business Situation, Production, Order Books, Inventory of Raw Materials, Inventory of Finished Goods, Profit Margin, Employment, Exports and Capacity Utilisation. The methodology for compilation of the BEI is given in the article Quarterly Industrial Outlook Surveys: Trends since 2001 published in October 2009 Bulletin.

BEI has marginally increased to 110.1 from 109.3 for assessment quarter while it declined to 117.2 from 118.8. (Table 17 Chart 13). A value of BEI above 100 can be considered as positive assessment/outlook on the business sentiment.

2

III.3.3 Industry-wise and Size-wise Analysis

Industry-wise analysis shows that majority of the industry groups was more pessimistic about input cost and less optimistic about profit margin. However, ‘Food products’, ‘Cement‘, ‘Electrical machinery’ and ‘Pharmaceuticals’ industries reported optimism in demand conditions.

Size-wise analysis shows that there was higher optimism for demand conditions for bigger sized companies (Annual Production of ` 10 billion and above) as compared with their smaller counterpart; however, these companies were less optimistic on financial conditions (Table 18).

III.3.4 Constraints for attaining the normal production level

About 50 per cent of companies reported Production Constraints for attaining the normal production level during the quarter October-December 2011. Major constraints reported are lack of domestic demand, shortage of power, shortage of working capital finance and uncertainty in economic environment.

Industry-wise break-up reveals that companies in the industry groups, viz, Textiles and Basic metals felt higher production as compared to other industries.  (Table 19).

III.3.5 Survey Results and Official Statistics

Chart 14 shows that the movements of annual growth rates of quarterly GDP-Manufacturing, IIP-Manufacturing (Base 2004-05) and the BEI based on assessment and expectations. It is observed that BEI has captured most of the turning points of the official statistics.

2


Table 1: Assessment & Expectations for Production

(Percentage responses)#

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

40.9

18.3

40.8

22.6

38.5

16.1

45.5

22.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

44.0

15.2

40.8

28.9

46.0

11.0

43.0

35.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

49.0

12.5

38.5

36.5

48.8

8.8

42.3

40.0

Apr-Jun 10

1092

48.4

13.0

38.6

35.4

45.8

9.9

44.3

35.9

Jul-Sep 10

1403

51.6

11.6

36.8

40.0

49.7

9.4

40.9

40.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

53.9

10.0

36.0

43.9

55.9

6.8

37.3

49.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

52.1

10.7

37.1

41.4

55.4

6.8

37.7

48.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

47.8

15.7

36.5

32.1

49.1

9.1

41.8

40.0

July-Sep 11

1528

40.8

18.3

40.9

22.6

49.6

9.0

41.5

40.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

42.2

16.9

41.0

25.3

49.5

9.5

41.0

39.9

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

49.8

9.5

40.7

40.4

Due to rounding off percentage may not add up to 100. this is applicable throughout the article .

Table 2: Assessment & Expectations for Order books

(Percentage responses)#

Survey  Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Increase

Decrease

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

38.2

17.7

44.1

20.5

35.5

18.7

45.8

16.8

Oct-Dec 09

1256

39.5

13.6

46.8

25.9

43.5

11.2

45.3

32.3

Jan-Mar 10

1079

43.5

11.6

44.9

31.9

44.8

9.1

46.1

35.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

41.8

10.5

47.7

31.3

42.3

8.9

48.8

33.4

Jul-Sep 10

1403

45.4

9.3

45.3

36.1

44.4

8.1

47.5

36.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

46.9

9.1

44.0

37.9

49.8

5.1

45.1

44.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

44.8

10.1

45.2

34.7

49.6

5.6

44.8

44.0

Apr-Jun 11

1504

42.5

14.4

43.0

28.1

45.9

7.5

46.6

38.4

July-Sep 11

1528

37.9

17.6

44.5

20.3

45.4

9.4

45.2

35.9

Oct-Dec 11

1450

36.9

18.5

44.6

18.4

43.5

10.1

46.4

33.4

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

42.3

11.0

46.7

31.3


Table 3: Assessment & Expectations for Pending Orders

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Below Normal

Above Normal

Normal

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.1

3.7

75.2

17.4

22.9

3.8

73.4

19.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

17.1

5.6

77.3

11.6

15.2

4.2

80.6

11.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

15.5

6.7

77.8

8.8

12.2

6.5

81.3

5.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

14.3

7.4

78.3

6.9

12.9

6.4

80.7

6.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

12.0

6.9

81.1

5.1

11.4

7.3

81.3

4.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

11.6

7.6

80.8

3.9

8.8

7.3

83.9

1.5

Jan-Mar 11

1524

12.5

6.9

80.6

5.5

9.8

8.1

82.1

1.7

Apr-Jun 11

1504

13.3

6.7

80.0

6.5

10.4

6.6

83.0

3.9

Jul-Sep 11

1528

18.0

4.7

77.3

13.3

11.8

7.2

81.0

4.5

Oct-Dec 11

1450

17.5

5.0

77.5

12.6

13.6

6.0

80.4

7.6

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

13.7

6.5

79.8

7.3

Pending Orders ‘Below Normal’ is optimistic


Table 4: Assessment & Expectations for Capacity Utilisation

(Percentage responses)#

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

July-Sep 11

Oct-Dec 11

Oct-Dec 11

Jan-Mar 12

Capacity Utilisation (main product)

Increase

26.4

26.9

32.1

34.5

No Change

57.0

56.9

57.9

55.3

Decrease

16.5

16.1

10.0

10.2

Net Response

9.9

10.8

22.2

24.3

Level of Capacity Utilisation (compared to the average in last 4 quarters)

Above normal

10.8

12.7

12.7

13.6

Normal

72.0

69.0

75.0

73.8

Below Normal

17.2

18.3

12.3

12.7

Net Response

-6.4

-5.6

0.3

0.9

Assessment of Prod. Capacity (with regard to expected
demand in next 6 months)

More than adequate

13.2

11.3

14.2

12.1

Adequate

78.8

80.2

79.1

80.5

Less than adequate

8.0

8.5

6.7

7.4

Net Response

5.2

2.8

7.4

4.7


Table 5: Assessment & Expectations for level of Inventory (Raw material and Finished goods)

 (Percentage responses) #

Parameter

Options

Assessment for Quarter

Expectations for Quarter

July-Sep 11

Oct-Dec 11

Oct-Dec 11

Jan-Mar 12

Inventory of raw material

Below average

6.9

7.1

5.4

5.0

Average

79.6

78.5

84.0

82.7

Above average

13.5

14.4

10.6

12.3

Net Response

-6.6

-7.3

-5.2

-7.3

Inventory of Finished goods

Below average

6.3

6.3

5.1

5.2

Average

77.9

78.6

83.4

82.8

Above average

15.8

15.1

11.5

12.0

Net Response

-9.5

-8.9

-6.5

-6.8

Inventory of raw material and finished goods ‘Below average’ is optimistic


Table 6: Assessment & Expectations for Exports

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

20.9

23.8

56.3

-2.9

20.6

20.5

59

0.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

27.3

18.1

54.6

9.2

27.0

14.5

58.5

12.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

28.9

16.2

54.9

12.7

31.2

11.0

57.8

20.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.1

13.7

57.2

15.3

30.0

11.5

58.5

18.5

Jul-Sep 10

1403

31.8

11.8

56.5

20.0

30.8

10.1

59.1

20.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

34.4

11.4

54.2

23.1

34.4

8.3

57.3

26.1

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

13.2

54.7

18.9

34.4

8.1

57.5

26.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

31.8

13.6

54.6

18.2

33.4

9.4

57.1

24.0

July-Sep 11

1528

28.7

15.7

56.6

13.1

35.1

9.2

55.7

25.8

Oct-Dec 11

1450

26.8

15.3

57.9

11.5

32.7

10.6

56.8

22.1

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

29.0

10.4

60.6

18.6


Table 7: Assessment & Expectations for Import

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

21.8

14.0

64.2

7.8

17.0

12.4

70.6

4.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

23.3

10.3

66.5

13.0

21.3

9.8

68.9

11.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

25.5

8.4

66.1

17.1

23.4

6.5

70.1

16.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

27.7

6.8

65.6

20.9

22.9

5.9

71.2

17.1

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.6

6.6

64.7

22.0

27.0

5.4

67.6

21.7

Oct-Dec 10

1561

27.3

6.4

66.3

20.9

27.3

5.1

67.6

22.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

27.0

7.1

65.8

19.9

26.7

5.4

67.9

21.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

25.0

7.4

67.6

17.6

25.1

6.2

68.6

18.9

July-Sep 11

1528

23.3

7.6

69.2

15.7

25.1

6.1

68.9

19.0

Oct-Dec 11

1450

20.8

9.3

69.9

11.6

23.1

6.2

70.7

16.9

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

23.0

7.5

69.4

15.5


Table 8: Assessment & Expectations for Employment Outlook

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No
Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

14.2

10.1

75.7

4.1

11.5

10.0

78.6

1.5

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.2

7.9

73.9

10.3

15.8

7.0

77.2

8.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.0

7.3

71.7

13.7

18.2

6.1

75.6

12.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

21.7

7.0

71.3

14.7

19.5

5.9

74.7

13.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

25.1

6.3

68.6

18.7

21.8

5.1

73.1

16.8

Oct-Dec 10

1561

24.8

5.4

69.9

19.4

24.7

3.6

71.7

21.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

24.3

5.6

70.1

18.7

25.0

4.3

70.7

20.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

24.3

6.1

69.6

18.2

23.0

5.6

71.4

17.4

July-Sep 11

1528

22.7

7.1

70.2

15.6

24.0

4.6

71.5

19.4

Oct-Dec 11

1450

18.9

7.6

73.5

11.3

21.7

5.2

73.1

16.5

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

19.3

5.7

75.0

13.6


Table 9: Assessment & Expectations for Overall Financial Situation

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Better

Worsen

No change

Net response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

34.3

12.5

53.2

21.8

32.8

12.8

54.4

20.0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

38.8

9.3

51.8

29.5

40.5

7.0

52.5

33.5

Jan-Mar 10

1079

42.3

6.5

51.3

35.8

44.3

5.0

50.6

39.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

39.1

6.9

54.0

32.2

41.6

5.3

53.1

36.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

38.7

8.1

53.2

30.6

39.7

5.6

54.8

34.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

42.8

5.7

51.5

37.1

44.9

5.3

49.7

39.6

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

8.6

55.8

27.1

45.5

4.4

50.1

41.1

Apr-Jun 11

1504

34.5

10.4

55.0

24.1

38.6

5.2

56.1

33.4

July-Sep 11

1528

27.8

16.0

56.2

11.7

37.4

6.8

55.7

30.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

28.1

16.9

55.0

11.2

35.5

9.2

55.3

26.3

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

35.3

10.2

54.5

25.2


Table 10: Assessment & Expectations for Working Capital Finance Requirement

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

31.2

7.4

61.4

23.8

32.3

6.0

61.7

26.3

Oct-Dec 09

1256

35.2

6.4

58.4

28.8

34.7

4.3

61.0

30.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

35.8

5.3

58.9

30.5

36.8

4.0

59.2

32.7

Apr-Jun 10

1092

34.7

4.8

60.5

29.9

31.9

4.3

63.8

27.7

Jul-Sep 10

1403

35.6

6.3

58.1

29.3

35.2

4.1

60.7

31.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

41.3

4.1

54.6

37.1

38.4

3.6

58.0

34.8

Jan-Mar 11

1524

41.0

4.1

54.9

36.9

40.7

3.0

56.3

37.8

Apr-Jun 11

1504

41.1

5.4

53.5

35.7

37.4

4.4

58.2

32.9

July-Sep 11

1528

36.8

5.7

57.4

31.1

38.7

5.1

56.3

33.6

Oct-Dec 11

1450

38.9

5.7

55.4

33.3

38.4

4.2

57.5

34.2

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

38.0

4.2

57.8

33.8


Table 11: Assessment & Expectations for Availability of Finance

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Improve

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

28.0

8.8

63.2

19.2

27.0

10.4

62.6

16.6

Oct-Dec 09

1256

30.3

7.2

62.5

23.0

31.7

5.6

62.7

26.1

Jan-Mar 10

1079

32.1

6.4

61.5

25.7

33.7

4.5

61.8

29.2

Apr-Jun 10

1092

32.3

5.9

61.8

26.4

31.2

4.4

64.4

26.8

Jul-Sep 10

1403

32.6

6.0

61.4

26.6

32.9

4.4

62.7

28.5

Oct-Dec10

1561

35.9

5.6

58.4

30.3

35.3

4.0

60.6

31.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

32.1

8.3

59.6

23.8

36.4

4.0

59.6

32.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

30.2

8.7

61.1

21.5

32.6

5.3

62.2

27.3

July-Sep11

1528

24.0

12.0

64.0

12.1

30.0

5.8

64.2

24.2

Oct-Dec 11

1450

24.1

13.7

62.2

10.4

28.7

8.5

62.7

20.2

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

28.2

9.1

62.7

19.0

Improvement in Availability of finance is optimism


Table 12: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of External Finance

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Jan-Mar 10

1079

7.7

23.6

68.7

-15.9

6.8

25.1

68.1

-18.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

7.0

28.9

64.0

-21.9

6.1

26.8

67.1

-20.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

5.0

33.2

61.8

-28.3

5.7

29.0

65.3

-23.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

4.0

37.9

58.1

-33.9

3.8

32.1

64.2

-28.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

3.5

46.0

50.6

-42.5

3.7

35.0

61.3

-31.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

3.5

52.5

44.1

-49.0

3.9

38.9

57.1

-35.0

July-Sep 11

1528

3.5

53.7

42.9

-50.2

4.0

43.7

52.4

-39.7

Oct-Dec 11

1450

2.9

53.4

43.7

-50.6

3.4

44.4

52.2

-41.0

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

4.1

42.8

53.1

-38.8

Cost of external finance ‘Decrease’ is optimistic


Table 13: Assessment & Expectations for Cost of Raw Material

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Decrease

Increase

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

8.1

49.8

42.1

-41.7

8.7

35.8

56.5

-27.1

Oct-Dec 09

1256

6.3

53.4

40.3

-47.1

5.0

43.4

51.6

-38.4

Jan-Mar 10

1079

2.2

62.3

35.5

-60.2

3.6

47.9

48.5

-44.3

Apr-Jun 10

1092

2.5

65.2

32.3

-62.7

2.2

50.8

47.0

-48.6

Jul-Sep 10

1403

3.5

61.8

34.7

-58.3

2.7

52.0

45.2

-49.3

Oct-Dec 10

1561

2.4

66.3

31.3

-63.9

3.3

52.6

44.1

-49.3

Jan-Mar 11

1524

1.7

73.7

24.6

-71.9

2.3

55.9

41.8

-53.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

4.5

70.0

25.6

-65.5

2.5

59.5

38.0

-57.0

July-Sep 11

1528

5.3

63.3

31.4

-58.1

4.8

56.6

38.6

-51.7

Oct-Dec 11

1450

5.1

66.3

28.7

-61.2

3.7

53.4

42.9

-49.7

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

4.0

54.1

41.9

-50.1

Cost of raw material ‘Decrease’ is optimistic


Table 14: Assessment & Expectations for Selling Price

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

19.4

19.2

61.4

0.2

17.2

17.2

65.6

0

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.6

15.9

65.5

2.6

19.2

13.2

67.6

6.0

Jan-Mar 10

1079

24.6

12.2

63.2

12.4

20.7

10.9

68.4

9.8

Apr-Jun 10

1092

29.3

12.0

58.6

17.3

22.4

9.1

68.5

13.3

Jul-Sep 10

1403

28.0

14.2

57.8

13.8

24.4

9.2

66.3

15.2

Oct-Dec 10

1561

30.2

10.0

59.8

20.2

25.7

8.7

65.5

17.0

Jan-Mar 11

1524

35.7

9.2

55.1

26.5

26.7

8.1

65.2

18.6

Apr-Jun 11

1504

35.0

13.4

51.6

21.5

30.6

7.0

62.4

23.7

July-Sep 11

1528

27.3

16.6

56.1

10.7

29.1

10.7

60.2

18.3

Oct-Dec 11

1450

24.6

15.7

59.7

8.9

26.8

10.8

62.4

16.0

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

25.0

10.3

64.7

14.7

Selling price ‘Increase’ is optimistic

Table 15: Assessment & Expectations for Profit Margin

(Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Increase

Decrease

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

16.9

32.0

51.1

-15.1

16.0

29.4

54.5

-13.4

Oct-Dec 09

1256

18.1

28.0

54.0

-9.9

20.2

23.0

56.8

-2.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

21.7

24.6

53.9

-2.9

21.1

20.1

58.8

1.1

Apr-Jun 10

1092

20.2

25.0

54.9

-4.8

22.1

18.9

59.0

3.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

21.3

23.9

54.8

-2.5

22.2

19.1

58.7

3.1

Oct-Dec 10

1561

22.7

23.1

54.2

-0.4

25.2

16.1

58.7

9.2

Jan-Mar 11

1524

20.8

25.1

54.1

-4.3

25.6

17.2

57.2

8.3

Apr-Jun 11

1504

18.2

28.1

53.6

-9.9

22.2

18.4

59.4

3.8

Jul-Sep 11

1528

15.2

32.3

52.5

-17.1

22.0

19.5

58.5

2.5

Oct-Dec 11

1450

15.2

32.5

52.4

-17.3

20.3

21.9

57.8

-1.6

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

20.1

23.1

56.8

-2.9

Increase in Profit margin is optimism


Table 16: Assessment & Expectations of Overall Business Situation

 (Percentage responses) #

Survey Quarter

Total response

Assessment for Current Quarter

Expectation for Next Quarter

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Better

Worsen

No Change

Net Response

Jul-Sep 09

1180

39.3

13.0

47.7

26.3

38.8

14.6

46.7

24.2

Oct-Dec 09

1256

46.0

10.1

43.9

36.0

47.2

7.4

45.4

39.8

Jan-Mar 10

1079

50.5

7.4

42.1

43.1

50.4

5.5

44.2

44.9

Apr-Jun 10

1092

47.8

7.1

45.0

40.7

47.3

6.1

46.6

41.2

Jul-Sep 10

1403

46.7

8.0

45.3

38.7

47.6

6.2

46.2

41.5

Oct-Dec 10

1561

51.4

5.5

43.1

45.9

52.5

5.1

42.4

47.4

Jan-Mar 11

1524

46.0

7.4

46.6

38.6

54.2

4.1

41.8

50.1

Apr-Jun 11

1504

42.8

10.1

47.1

32.6

47.0

5.6

47.4

41.4

Jul-Sep 11

  1528

34.1

15.4

50.5

18.7

46.6

6.8

46.6

39.8

Oct-Dec 11

1450

35.2

17.5

47.3

17.7

43.1

8.0

48.9

35.2

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

 

 

43.6

10.0

46.5

33.6

Overall Business Situation ‘Better’ is optimistic

Table-17: Business Expectation Index based on Assessment and Expectations

Quarter

ASSESSMENT

EXPECTATIONS

 

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous year

Index

Change over previous quarter

Change over previous year

Jan-Mar 00

122.8

-

-

 

-

-

Apr-Jun 00

115.2

-7.6

-

125.5

-

-

Jul-Sep 00

116.1

0.9

-

126.1

0.6

-

Oct-Dec 00

113.9

-2.2

-

124.4

-1.7

-

Jan-Mar 01

115.2

1.3

-7.6

122.5

-1.8

-

Apr-Jun 01

109.9

-5.3

-5.3

120.7

-1.8

-4.8

Jul-Sep 01

108.7

-1.3

-7.4

118.9

-1.8

-7.2

Oct-Dec 01

100.7

-8.0

-13.2

119.5

0.6

-4.9

Jan-Mar 02

108.4

7.7

-6.8

105.3

-14.2

-17.3

Apr-Jun 02

110.8

2.4

0.9

112.3

7.0

-8.5

Jul-Sep 02

113.2

2.4

4.5

116.7

4.4

-2.2

Oct-Dec 02

113.8

0.6

13.1

121.2

4.6

1.7

Jan-Mar 03

118.4

4.6

10.0

119.7

-1.6

14.4

Apr-Jun 03

109.8

-8.6

-1.0

117.8

-1.8

5.6

Jul-Sep 03

114.3

4.5

1.1

117.2

-0.7

0.5

Oct-Dec 03

119.8

5.4

5.9

122.1

4.9

0.8

Jan-Mar 04

121.4

1.7

3.0

122.2

0.2

2.6

Apr-Jun 04

118.4

-3.0

8.6

121.5

-0.7

3.7

Jul-Sep 04

116.9

-1.5

2.6

120.0

-1.5

2.9

Oct-Dec 04

122.0

5.1

2.2

121.5

1.5

-0.6

Jan-Mar 05

122.5

0.5

1.1

123.2

1.7

1.0

Apr-Jun 05

117.5

-5.0

-0.9

120.7

-2.5

-0.8

Jul-Sep 05

114.9

-2.6

-2.0

119.6

-1.1

-0.4

Oct-Dec 05

124.3

9.4

2.3

122.7

3.1

1.2

Jan-Mar 06

120.7

-3.6

-1.8

125.7

3.0

2.5

Apr-Jun 06

121.8

1.1

4.3

120.5

-5.2

-0.2

Jul-Sep 06

120.7

-1.1

5.8

126.5

6.0

6.9

Oct-Dec 06

123.9

3.2

-0.4

125.3

-1.2

2.6

Jan-Mar 07

127.7

3.8

7.0

126.5

1.2

0.8

Apr-Jun 07

115.8

-11.9

-6.0

127.5

1.0

7.0

Jul-Sep 07

118.9

3.1

-1.8

121.1

-6.4

-5.4

Oct-Dec 07

115.9

-3.0

-8.0

124.4

3.3

-0.9

Jan-Mar 08

122.8

6.9

-4.9

118.6

-5.8

-7.9

Apr-Jun 08

116.2

-6.6

0.4

123.2

4.6

-4.3

Jul-Sep 08

113.4

-2.8

-5.5

122.1

-1.1

1.0

Oct-Dec 08

104.1

-9.3

-11.8

118.9

-3.2

-5.5

Jan-Mar 09

82.6

-21.5

-40.2

111.9

-7.0

-6.7

Apr-Jun 09

99.4

16.8

-16.8

96.4

-15.5

-26.8

Jul-Sep 09

107.2

7.8

-6.2

109.9

13.5

-12.2

Oct-Dec 09

112.8

5.6

8.7

116.4

6.5

-2.5

Jan-Mar 10

118.5

5.7

35.9

120.6

4.2

8.7

Apr-Jun 10

115.9

-2.6

16.5

119.8

-0.8

23.4

Jul-Sep 10

119.0

3.1

11.8

118.8

-1.0

8.9

Oct-Dec 10

122.8

3.8

10.0

126.5

7.7

10.1

Jan-Mar 11

122.0

-0.8

3.5

125.9

-0.6

5.3

Apr-Jun 11

116.3

-5.7

0.4

121.9

-4.0

2.1

Jul-Sep 11

109.4

-6.93

-9.67

121.5

-0.4

2.7

Oct-Dec 11

110.1

0.8 

-12.7

118.8

-2.7

-7.7

Jan-Mar 12

 

 

 

117.2

-1.6

-8.7


Table 18: Size-wise analysis: Annual Production and Paid-up Capital (PUC) for Assessment quarter.

 

PUC-wise

Production-wise

 

Small

Medium

Big

Small

Medium

Big

Parameter

Round 55

Round 56

Round 55

Round 56

Round 55

Round 56

Round 55

Round 56

Round 55

Round 56

Round 55

Round 56

Overall business situation

20.7

18.8

36.9

16.9

36.3

25.6

33.6

15.3

36.4

21.6

42.4

12.1

Overall Financial situation

16.4

10.9

27.6

10.3

31.1

24.4

23.7

7.8

28.6

15.2

27.1

8.9

Working Capital Finance Requirement

22.0

27.9

34.9

34.5

33.0

30.2

28.9

28.1

37.4

39.2

32.2

40.0

Availability of Finance

7.9

10.9

21.9

10.6

14.3

7.0

16.9

8.7

23.4

14.5

33.3

2.1

Cost of external finance

-30.1

-36.9

-41.7

-51.8

-42.2

-57.0

-34.5

-40.7

-45.5

-55.0

-43.1

-66.0

Production

26.9

19.1

41.2

24.9

40.4

41.9

37.2

19.4

41.5

27.8

37.9

35.6

Order Books

27.0

14.2

33.9

17.6

37.3

38.6

32.5

14.9

33.9

20.5

27.8

22.6

Pending Orders, if applicable

14.7

15.6

7.1

13.1

7.2

-3.0

10.5

16.3

5.6

10.2

-2.0

7.4

Cost of raw materials

-56.7

-65.9

-48.8

-60.8

37.4

-57.6

-54.7

-63.3

-45.6

-59.1

-47.5

-61.6

Inventory of raw materials

-4.9

-5.7

-5.1

-7.4

0.0

-8.3

-1.8

-2.6

-8.0

-10.8

-1.8

-10.1

Inventory of Finished Goods

-3.7

-5.0

-6.4

-9.2

2.2

-10.8

-4.1

-4.2

-7.8

-12.1

-10.3

-13.0

Capacity utilisation

6.7

9.3

23.3

10.1

26.4

23.5

18.0

5.9

24.3

14.5

23.7

13.9

Level of capacity utilisation

-1.8

-5.5

0.0

-6.3

-7.7

3.5

-4.9

-13.1

3.9

1.1

0.0

-4.2

Assessment of the production capacity

6.2

0.6

7.6

3.4

11.0

0.0

4.3

-1.2

9.9

5.0

10.3

8.4

Employment in the company

6.7

11.5

16.7

11.6

7.7

7.0

7.4

7.5

19.6

13.0

1.7

17.9

Exports, if applicable

9.8

2.5

23.3

12.7

26.0

8.7

14.0

4.9

27.9

15.9

30.8

16.2

Imports, if any

6.9

2.5

18.2

12.4

20.2

14.5

13.6

5.8

19.7

14.5

18.5

18.4

Selling  prices

14.2

5.5

16.0

8.8

21.8

16.7

13.5

3.8

17.7

12.1

25.9

14.1

If increase expected in selling prices, rate of such increase

13.6

17.9

17.4

20.0

5.5

22.7

17.5

20.7

16.5

17.1

20.5

28.1

Profit Margin

-16.1

-18.2

-0.7

-18.4

5.6

0.0

-7.4

-21.8

2.0

14.8

-5.2

-11.2

Net Response (%) for October-December 2011
Smaller companies (annual production less than
`. 1 billion /PUC less than ` 10 million).
Medium companies (annual production between ` 1 billion to ` 10 billion /PUC between  ` 10 million` 1 billion)
Big companies (annual production above  ` 10 billion / PUC above ` 1 billion)

Table 19: Constraints for attaining the normal production level Industry-wise

 

Production Constraint

NO

YES

Count

%

Count

%

FOOD PRODUCTS

63

45.7

75

54.3

TEXTILES

62

33.0

126

67.0

BASIC METALS AND METAL PRODUCTS

87

42.2

119

57.8

ELECTRICAL MACHINERY

48

50.0

48

50.0

OTHER MACHINERY AND APPARATUS

94

53.1

83

46.9

TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

45

47.4

50

52.6

FERTILIZERS

20

62.5

12

37.5

PHARMACEUTICAL AND MEDICINES

66

66.7

33

33.3

BASIC CHEMICALS

58

58.0

42

42.0

RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS

38

48.1

41

51.9

PAPER AND PAPER PRODUCTS

19

46.3

22

53.7

CEMENT

16

44.4

20

55.6

WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS

12

63.2

7

36.8

DIVERSIFIED

14

70.0

6

30.0

OTHER INDUSTRIES

75

60.5

49

39.5

All companies

717

49.4

733

50.6


* Prepared in the Division of Enterprise Surveys of Department of Statistics and Information Management.  The previous article on the subject based on the 55th survey round (July-September 2011) was published in December 2011 Bulletin.

1Net Response is the difference of percentage of the respondents reporting an increase and that of reporting decrease.

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