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India’s External Debt as at the end of March 2009*

India’s External Debt as at the end of March 2009*

The external debt data are compiled and released by the Reserve Bank/ Ministry of Finance, Government of India on a quarterly basis with a lag of one quarter. As per the standard practice, India’s external debt statistics for the quarters ending March and June are compiled and released by the Reserve Bank of India and those for the quarters ending September and December by the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. The data on India’s external debt for end-March 2009, which was released by the Reserve Bank on June 30, 2009, are presented in this article. A detailed account of external debt as compiled in the standard format as at end-March 2009 in rupee and US dollar terms and revised data for the earlier quarters are set out in Statement 1 and 2, respectively.

Major Highlights of External Debt

(i) India’s external debt, as at end-March 2009, was placed at US $ 229.9 billion (22.0 per cent of GDP) recording an increase of US $ 5.3 billion or 2.4 per cent over the level of the previous year, mainly due to the increase in trade credits.

(ii) As per international comparison of external debt of the twenty most indebted countries, India was the fifth most indebted country in 2007.

(iii) By way of composition of external debt, the share of commercial borrowings was the highest at 27.3 per cent as at end-March 2009, followed by short-term debt (21.5 per cent), NRI deposits (18.1 per cent) and multilateral debt (17.2 per cent).

(iv) The debt service ratio has declined steadily over the years, and stood at 4.6 per cent as at end-March 2009.

(v) Excluding the valuation effects due to appreciation of US dollar against other major currencies and Indian rupee, the stock of external debt would have increased by US$ 18.7 billion as compared with the stock as at end-March 2008.

(vi) The share of short-term debt in total debt increased to 21.5 per cent at end-March 2009 from 20.9 per cent at end-March 2008, primarily on account of rise in short-term trade credits.

(vii) Based on residual maturity, the short-term debt accounted for 40.6 per cent of the total external debt at end-March 2009.

(viii) The ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves at 19.6 per cent in March 2009 was higher as compared with 15.2 per cent in March 2008.

(ix) The US dollar continues to remain the dominant currency accounting for 57.1 per cent of the total external debt stock as at end-March 2009.

(x) India’s foreign exchange reserves provided a cover of 109.6 per cent to the external debt stock at the end of March 2009 as compared with 137.9 per cent as at end-March 2008.

Table 1: External Debt Outstanding

(US $ billion)

 

Total External Debt

Variation

Over corresponding Quarter of Previous year

Over Previous Quarter

Amount

Per cent

Amount

Per cent

1

2

3

4

5

6

March 2007

171.3

33.2

24.0

10.9

6.8

June 2007

182.3

37.3

25.7

11.0

6.4

September 2007

195.6

45.0

29.9

13.3

7.3

December 2007

206.0

45.6

28.4

10.4

5.3

March 2008

224.6

53.3

31.1

18.6

9.0

June 2008

223.6

41.3

22.6

-1.0

-0.5

September 2008

223.5

27.9

14.3

-

-

December 2008

229.3

23.3

11.3

5.7

2.6

March 2009 P

229.9

5.3

2.4

0.6

0.3

P: Provisional.   – : Nil.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

1. India’s External Debt as at end-March 2009

India’s external debt, as at end-March 2009 was placed at US $ 229.9 billion (22.0 per cent of GDP), recording an increase of US $ 5.3 billion or 2.4 per cent over the end-March 2008 level, mainly due to the increase in trade credits (Table 1 and Chart 1).

2. Valuation Changes

The valuation effect reflecting the appreciation of the US dollar against other major international currencies and Indian rupee resulted in a decline in India’s external debt by US $ 13.4 billion. This implies that excluding the valuation effects, the stock of external debt as at end-March 2009 would have increased by US $ 18.7 billion over the level at end-March 2008.

1

3. Components of External Debt

(i) By way of composition of external debt, the share of commercial borrowings was the highest at 27.3 per cent as at end-March 2009 followed by short-term debt (21.5 per cent), NRI deposits (18.1 per cent) and multilateral debt (17.2 per cent) (Table 2).

(ii) The long-term debt at US$ 180.5 billion and short-term debt at US$ 49.4 billion accounted for 78.5 per cent and 21.5 per cent, respectively, of the total external debt as at end-March 2009.

(iii) The rise in external debt stock was mainly due to the increase in trade credits which rose by US$ 4.2 billion over its level at end-March 2008.

Table 2: External Debt by Component

(US $ billion)

Item

End- March

1991

1998

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1. Multilateral

20,900

29,553

29,297

31,744

32,620

35,337

39,490

39,566

 

(24.9)

(31.6)

(26.2)

(23.9)

(23.6)

(20.6)

(17.6)

(17.2)

2. Bilateral

14,168

16,969

17,277

17,034

15,761

16,065

19,701

20,587

 

(16.9)

(18.1)

(15.5)

(12.8)

(11.4)

(9.4)

(8.8)

(9.0)

3. IMF

2,623

664

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

(3.1)

(0.7)

           

4. Trade Credit

4,301

6,526

4,697

5,022

5,420

7,165

10,358

14,604

 

(5.1)

(7.0)

(4.2)

(3.8)

(3.9)

(4.2)

(4.6)

(6.4)

5. ECBs

10,209

16,986

22,007

26,405

26,452

41,443

62,337

62,676

 

(12.2)

(18.2)

(19.7)

(19.9)

(19.1)

(24.2)

(27.8)

(27.3)

6. NRI Deposits

10,209

11,913

31,216

32,743

36,282

41,240

43,672

41,554

 

(12.2)

(12.7)

(28.0)

(24.6)

(26.3)

(24.1)

(19.4)

(18.1)

7. Rupee Debt

12,847

5,874

2,720

2,302

2,059

1,951

2,016

1,527

 

(15.3)

(6.3)

(2.4)

(1.7)

(1.5)

(1.1)

(0.9)

(0.7)

8. Long-term Debt

75,257

88,485

1,07,214

1,15,250

1,18,594

1,43,201

1,77,574

1,80,514

(1to 7)

(89.8)

(94.6)

(96.0)

(86.7)

(85.9)

(83.6)

(79.1)

(78.5)

9. Short-term Debt

8,544

5,046

4,431

17,723

19,539

28,130

46,999

49,373

 

(10.2)

(5.4)

(4.0)

(13.3)

(14.1)

(16.4)

(20.9)

(21.5)

Total (8+9)

83,801

93,531

1,11,645

1,32,973

1,38,133

1,71,331

2,24,573

2,29,887

 

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

(100.0)

P : Provisional.         – : Nil.
IMF : International Monetary Fund; ECBs: External Commercial Borrowings; NRI: Non-Resident Indian.
Note: Figures in parentheses are percentage to total external debt.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.


Table 3: Variation in Components of External Debt

Item

External debt outstanding at the end-of (US$ million)

Absolute variation (US$ million)

Percentage variation (Per cent)

Mar 07

Mar 08

Mar 09 P

Mar 07 to Mar 08

Mar 08 to Mar 09

Mar 07 to Mar 08

Mar 08 to Mar 09

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1.

Multilateral

35,337

39,490

39,566

4,153

76

11.8

0.2

2.

Bilateral

16,065

19,701

20,587

3,636

886

22.6

4.5

3.

IMF

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

4.

Trade Credit

7,165

10,358

14,604

3,193

4,246

44.6

41.0

5.

Commercial Borrowings

41,443

62,337

62,676

20,894

339

50.4

0.5

6.

NRI Deposits

41,240

43,672

41,554

2,432

-2,118

5.9

-4.8

7.

Rupee Debt

1,951

2,016

1,527

65

-489

3.3

-24.3

8.

Short-Term Debt

28,130

46,999

49,373

18,869

2,374

67.1

5.1

 

Of which:

             
 

(i) Short-Term Trade Credit

25,979

43,162

45,975

17,183

2,813

66.1

6.5

Total Debt (1 to 8)

171,331

224,573

229,887

53,242

5,314

31.1

2.4

Memo Items

             

A. Long-Term Debt (1 to 7)

143,201

177,574

180,514

34,373

2,940

24.0

1.7

B. Short-Term Debt

28,130

46,999

49,373

18,869

2,374

67.1

5.1

P : Provisional.          – : Nil.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

(iv) The short-term debt increased by US$ 2.4 billion as at end-March 2009 mainly on account of rise in short-term trade credit (Table 3 and Chart 2).

(v) Outstanding NRI deposits at US$ 41.6 billion as at end-March 2009 declined by US$ 2.1 billion over the level at end-March 2008, mainly due to valuation effects as there were positive inflows under NRI deposits during 2008-09.

2

(vi) The level of approvals of ECBs during 2008-09 (April-March) was significantly lower at US$ 18.4 billion as compared with US$ 31.0 billion during 2007-08. As a result, gross disbursements for 2008-09 were lower at US $ 13.4 billion than that of US$ 28.8 billion during the previous year (Table 4).

4. Currency Composition

(i) The currency composition of India’s external debt is generally disseminated in terms of major foreign currencies such as US dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, Pound Sterling, Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and the domestic currency i.e., Indian Rupee.

(ii) The US dollar continues to be the dominant currency accounting for 57.1 per cent of the total external debt stock as at end-March 2009, followed by the Japanese yen (14.2 per cent), Indian rupee (13.2 per cent) and SDR (9.2 per cent) (Table 5 and Chart 3). The share of Euro has been at around 4 per cent in recent years.

Table 4: External Commercial Borrowings

(US $ million)

Year

Approvals#

Gross Disbursement*

Amortisation*

Interest*

Total Servicing

ECB Debt Outstanding

1

2

3

4

5

6 (4+5)

7

1990-91

1,903

4,252

2,004

1,410

3,414

10,209

1991-92

2,127

3,133

1,677

1,153

2,830

11,715

1992-93

2,200

1,167

1,525

1,182

2,707

11,643

1993-94

2,585

2,913

1,978

1,254

3,232

12,363

1994-95

4,469

4,152

2,812

1,478

4,290

12,991

1995-96

6,286

4,252

3,868

1,380

5,248

13,873

1996-97

8,581

7,571

4,605

1,354

5,959

14,335

1997-98

8,712

7,371

3,550

1,384

4,934

16,986

1998-99

5,200

7,226

3,477

1,593

5,070

20,978

1999-00

3,398

3,187

4,147

1,653

5,800

19,943

2000-01

2,837

9,621

5,378

1,695

7,073

24,408

2001-02

2,653

2,684

4,107

1,456

5,563

23,320

2002-03

4,235

3,505

5,019

1,167

6,186

22,472

2003-04

6,671

5,225

8,045

2,119

10,164

22,007

2004-05

11,490

9,084

3,571

959

4,530

26,405

2005-06

17,175

14,343

11,584

3,015

14,599

26,452

2006-07

24,492

20,257

3,814

2,583

6,397

41,657

2007-08 PR

30,954

28,784

6,119

3,652

9,771

62,337

2008-09 QE

18,364

13,377

6,439

3,962

10,401

62,676

PR : Partially Revised;    QE: Quick Estimates.
*   : Revised; based on Balance of Payments data.
#   : Based on date of agreement of the loan which may differ from the date of granting the loan registration number by
the RBI. Ceiling on ECB approvals is fixed on the basis of the latter, which may either be after or before the date of agreement of the loan. Hence, there may be some difference between the amount shown under approvals in the table and the amount of ceiling fixed for a particular year.
Note: Disbursements during 1998-99 and 2000-01 include RIBs (US$ 4.2 billion) and IMDs (US $ 5.5 billion), respectively. Debt service payments during 2003-04 and 2005-06 include redemption of RIBs and IMDs, respectively.


Table 5: Currency Composition of India’s External Debt

( Percentage share in total external debt)

Currency

As at end- March

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

US Dollar

40.5

48.0

49.2

51.4

54.4

57.1

SDR

15.5

14.2

13.7

11.9

10.0

9.2

Indian Rupee

22.7

19.6

18.9

18.6

17.5

13.2

Japanese Yen

11.6

10.5

10.9

11.5

12.0

14.2

Euro

5.8

4.6

4.4

3.9

3.6

4.1

Pound Sterling

3.4

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.9

Others

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

P : Provisional
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

5. Instrument-wise Classification of External Debt

(i) The instrument-wise classification of India’s external debt as at end-March 2009 reveals that ‘loans’ accounted for 51.8 per cent of total debt outstanding as compared with 49.5 per cent as at end-March 2008 (Table 6).

(ii) The group ‘currency and deposits’ and ‘trade credits’ together accounted for 50.6 per cent of the total non-Government debt as at end-March 2009 as against 52.6 per cent as at end-March 2008.

3

Table 6: Instrument-wise Classification of External Debt

(US$ million)

Sr. No.

Borrower

End-March

End-March

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

A.

Government (1+2)

56,947

54,856

1.

Short-Term
(i) Money Market

615

939

 

Instruments

615

939

2.

Long-term {(i)+(ii)+(iii)}

56,332

53,917

 

(i) Bonds and Notes

2,300

963

 

(ii) Loans

52,740

51,680

 

(iii) Trade Credits

1,292

1,274

B.

Monetary Authority

1,115

764

 

1. Short-term

1,115

764

 

(i) Currency and Deposits

1,115

764

C.

Non-Government (1+2)

1,66,511

1,74,267

 

1. Short-Term {(i)+(ii)}

45,269

47,670

 

(i) Money Market

   
 

Instruments

2,107

1,695

 

(ii) Trade Credits

43,162

45,975

 

2. Long-term

1,21,242

1,26,597

 

{(i)+(ii)+(iii)+(iv)}

   
 

(i) Bonds and Notes

18,302

17,018

 

(ii) Loans

58,484

67,310

 

(iii)Currency and Deposits

43,672

41,554

 

(iv) Trade Credits

784

715

 

Total External Debt (A+B+C)

2,24,573

2,29,887

Source:   Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

6. Short-term Debt

(i) The short-term debt has become an important component for measuring liquidity and refinancing risks. In recent years, efforts have been made to expand the coverage of short-term external debt. The data on short-term debt now includes suppliers’ credit up to 180 days and above 180 days, FII investments in Government debt, investment by foreign central banks and international institutions in Treasury Bills and external liabilities of central bank and commercial banks.

(ii) Short-term debt by original maturity has increased over the period mainly because of the increase in trade related credits due to growing imports. The share of trade related credits in total short-term debt increased from 91.8 per cent as at end-March 2008 to 93.1 per cent as at end-March 2009 (Table 7).

Table 7: Short-Term Debt by Original Maturity

(US $ million)

Components

End-March

1991

2001

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A. Short-Term Debt

8,544

3,628

17,723

19,539

28,130

46,999

49,373

a) NRI Deposits

3,577

957

-

-

-

-

-

(up to 1 year maturity) @

             

b) FC (B&O) Deposits

167

-

-

-

-

-

-

(up to 1 year maturity)

             

c) Trade Related Credits #

4,800

2,671

16,271

19,399

25,979

43,162

45,975

(i) Above 6 months and

2,267

2,671

7,529

8,696

11,971

22,884

23,346

upto 1year

             

(ii) Upto 6 months

2,533

-

8,742

10,703

14,008

20,278

22,629

d) FII Investments in Government Treasury Bills & other instruments

-

-

1,452

140

397

651

2,065

e) Investment in Treasury Bills by foreign central banks and international institutions etc.

164

155

105

f) External Debt Liabilities of:

1,590

3,031

1,228

(i) Central Bank

501

1,115

764

(ii) Commercial Banks

1,089

1,916

464

B.  Imports (during the year)*

27,915

57,912

1,18,908

1,57,056

1,90,670

2,57,789

2,94,587

C.  Trade Credits to Imports (%)

17.2

4.6

13.7

12.4

13.6

16.7

15.6

@ : Short-term deposits of less than one-year maturity under FCNR(A) were withdrawn with effect from May 15, 1993, such deposits under FCNR(B) and NR(E)RA were withdrawn effective October 1999 and April 2003, respectively.
# : Data on short-term Trade Credits of less than six months in respect of suppliers’ credit and FII investment in debt papers are included since end-March 2005.
* : On balance of payments basis.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

7. External Debt by Residual Maturity

(i) While external debt is generally compiled in terms of original maturity, analysing the external debt, in particular short-term debt in terms of residual maturity is important from the point of view of foreign exchange liquidity management and to ascertain the total foreign exchange outgo on account of debt service payments in the immediate future.

(ii) The ‘short-term debt by residual maturity’ comprises the repayments due under medium and long-term debt by original maturity during one year reference period along with the short-term debt with original maturity. The balance constitutes long-term debt by residual maturity. Based on residual maturity, the short-term debt accounted for 40.6 per cent of total external debt as at end-March 2009. The ratio of short-term debt by residual maturity to foreign exchange reserves worked out to 37.0 per cent at end-March 2009 (Table 8).

Table 8: Residual Maturity of External Debt (Outstanding as at End-March 2009)

(US$ million)

Components

Short-term

Long-term

Total (2) to (5)

Up to one year

1 to 2 years

2 to 3 years

More than 3 years

1

2

3

4

 5

1. Sovereign Debt (long-term)

2,603

2,924

3,015

45,376

53,917

2. External Commercial Borrowings

9,189

10,839

14,521

50,494

85,043

(including trade credit)

         

3. NRI deposits {(i)+(ii)+(iii)}

32,108

4,465

3,757

1,224

41,554

(i)   FCNR(B)

9,944

2,085

1,075

107

13,211

(ii) NR(E)RA

18,649

2,015

2,041

865

23,570

(iii) NRO

3,516

365

641

252

4,773

4. Short-term Debt*

49,373

-

-

-

49,373

(Original maturity)

         

Total (1 to 4)

93,273

18,228

21,293

97,093

229,887

Memo Items

         

Short-term debt

         

(Residual maturity as per cent of total debt)

40.6

       

Short-term debt

         

(Residual maturity as per cent of Reserves)

37.0

       

* Also includes short-term component of sovereign debt amounting to US$ 939 million.
Note : Residual Maturity of NRI Deposits is estimated on the basis of the Survey conducted by the Reserve Bank on NRI deposits outstanding as on March 31, 2009.
Source : Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

8. Government and Non­Government External Debt

(i) Government (Sovereign) external debt stood at US$ 54.9 billion as at end-March 2009 while non-Government debt amounted to US$ 175.0 billion.

(ii) The share of non-Government debt in total external debt has increased steadily since March 2003. This trend continued during 2008-09 as the share of non-Government debt in total external debt increased further to 76.1 per cent as at end-March 2009 as against 74.6 per cent as at end-March 2008 (Table 9 and Chart 4).

Table 9: Government and Non-Government External Debt

(US$ million)

Sr. No.

Components

End- March

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

A.

Sovereign Debt (I+II)

43,612

44,674

46,668

45,346

48,330

56,947

54,856

 

(As a percentage of GDP)

8.4

7.2

6.5

5.6

5.1

4.8

5.3

 

I. External Debt on Government Account under External Assistance

41,216

41,142

43,686

43,510

46,155

52,538

51,816

 

II. Other Government External Debt @

2,396

3,532

2,982

1,768

2,175

4,409

3,040

B.

Non-Government Debt #

61,302

66,971

86,305

92,787

1,23,001

1,67,626

1,75,031

 

(As a percentage of GDP)

11.9

10.6

12.0

11.5

13.0

14.2

16.8

C.

Total External Debt (A+B)

1,04,914

1,11,645

132,973

1,38,133

1,71,331

2,24,573

2,29,887

 

(As a percentage of GDP)

20.3

17.8

18.5

17.2

18.1

19.0

22.0

@ :  Other Government external debt includes defence debt, investment in Treasury Bills/ Government securities by FIIs, foreign central banks and international institutions.
# :  Includes external debt of Monetary Authority.
 Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.             

9. Debt Service Payments

(i)  India’s external debt service payments amounted to US$ 15.4 billion during 2008-09 (April-March) as compared with US$14.9 billion during 2007-08 (April-March) (Table 10).

4

(ii) India’s debt service ratio has improved progressively over the years owing to the combined effect of moderation in debt service payments and growth in external current receipts. The debt service ratio had declined from a peak of 35.3 per cent in 1990-91 to 5.9 per cent in 2004-05 but increased to 10.1 per cent during 2005-06 due to repayments relating to the India Millennium Deposits. The debt service ratio declined to 4.6 per cent during 2008-09.

Table 10: India’s External Debt Service Payments

(US$ million)

Sr. No.

Item

1990-91

2000-01

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

External Assistance

2,315

3,444

6,983

2,855

2,652

2,942

3,241

3,381

 

Repayment

1,187

2,338

6,193

2,129

1,945

1,960

2,099

2,372

 

Interest

1,128

1,106

790

726

707

982

1,142

1,009

2

External Commercial

               
 

Borrowings

3,414

7,073

10,164

4,530

14,839

6,331

9,771

10,401

 

Repayment

2,004

5,378

8,045

3,571

11,824

3,814

6,119

6,439

 

Interest

1,410

1,695

2,119

959

3,015

2,517

3,652

3,962

3

I.M.F.

778

26

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

Repayment

644

26

-

-

-

-

-

-

 

Interest

134

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

4

NRI Deposits

               
 

Interest

1,282

1,661

1,642

1,353

1,497

1,969

1,813

1,547

5

Rupee Debt Service

               
 

Repayments

1,193

617

376

417

572

162

121

101

6

Total Debt Service

               
 

(1 to 5)

8,982

12,821

19,165

9,155

19,560

11,404

14,946

15,430

 

Repayment

5,028

8,359

14,614

6,117

14,341

5,936

8,339

8,912

 

Interest

3,954

4,462

4,551

3,038

5,219

5,468

6,607

6,518

7

Current Receipts #

25,479

77,467

1,19,239

1,54,123

1,94,170

2,42,811

3,14,014

3,37,095

 

Debt Service Ratio (6/7) (%)

35.3

16.6

16.1

5.9

10.1

4.7

4.8

4.6

# : Current Receipts minus Official Transfers.        – : Nil.
Note: Debt service ratio is defined as total repayments of principal and interest on debt as a ratio of current receipts.
Source : Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.

(iii) Servicing of External Commercial Borrowings (including principal and interest payments) accounted for 67.4 per cent of the total debt service during 2008-09.

(iv) At end-March 2009, the projected debt service payments for External Commercial Borrowings and Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds revealed that the principal repayments between 2011-12 and 2012-13 would be higher (Table 11). Despite consolidation of high cost loans and lower interest rates on the current borrowings, interest payments would also increase during these years due to higher disbursement. The projections do not include future debt service obligations arising out of fresh borrowings.

Table 11: Projected Debt Service Payments for ECBs and FCCBs

(US$ million)

Year

Principal

Interest

Total

1

2

3

4

2009-10

8,633

2,057

10,690

2010-11

10,239

1,996

12,235

2011-12

13,877

2,367

16,244

2012-13

15,823

2,141

17,964

2013-14

10,256

961

11,217

2014-15

5,608

627

6,235

2015-16

3,786

465

4,251

2016-17

3,602

331

3,933

2017-18

2,285

212

2,497

2018-19

1,655

135

1,790

ECBs: External Commercial Borrowings.
FCCBs: Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds.
Note: Projections on debt servicing are based on the end-March 2009 debt outstanding position. The projections exclude NRI deposits and FII investment in government debt securities.


10. Sustainability of India’s External Debt

(i) An assessment of sustainability of external debt is generally undertaken based on the trends in certain key ratios such as debt to GDP ratio, debt service ratio, short-term debt to total debt and total debt to foreign exchange reserves.

India has managed its external debt successfully as reflected in the perceptible improvement in various external debt sustainability indicators (Table 12).

(ii) The ratio of external debt to GDP increased to 22.0 per cent as at end-March 2009 from 19.0 per cent as at end-March 2008.

(iii) The debt service ratio has declined steadily over the years, and stood at 4.6 per cent as at end-March 2009.

(iv)India’s foreign exchange reserves provided a cover of 109.6 per cent to the external debt stock at the end of March 2009 as compared with 137.9 per cent as at end-March 2008 (Chart 5).

Table 12: India’s Key External Debt Indicators

Year

External Debt (US $ billion)

Ratio of External Debt to GDP (per cent)

Debt Service Ratio (per cent)

Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total Debt (per cent)

Ratio of Concessional Debt to Total Debt (per cent)

Ratio of Short-Term Debt to Foreign Exchange Reserves (per cent)

Ratio of Short- Term Debt to Total Debt (per cent)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990-91

83.8

28.7

35.3

7.0

45.9

146.5

10.2

1991-92

85.3

38.7

30.2

10.8

44.8

76.7

8.3

1992-93

90.0

37.5

27.5

10.9

44.5

64.5

7.0

1993-94

92.7

33.8

25.4

20.8

44.4

18.8

3.9

1994-95

99.0

30.8

25.9

25.4

45.3

16.9

4.3

1995-96

93.7

27.0

26.2

23.1

44.7

23.2

5.4

1996-97

93.5

24.6

23.0

28.3

42.2

25.5

7.2

1997-98

93.5

24.3

19.5

31.4

39.5

17.2

5.4

1998-99

96.9

23.6

18.7

33.5

38.5

13.2

4.4

1999-00

98.3

22.0

17.1

38.7

38.9

10.3

4.0

2000-01

101.3

22.5

16.6

41.7

35.4

8.6

3.6

2001-02

98.8

21.1

13.7

54.7

35.9

5.1

2.8

2002-03

104.9

20.3

16.0*

72.5

36.8

6.1

4.5

2003-04

111.6

17.8

16.1**

101.2

36.1

3.9

4.0

2004-05

133.0

18.5

5.9^

106.4

30.9

12.5

13.3

2005-06

138.1

17.2

10.1#

109.8

28.6

12.9

14.1

2006-07

171.3

18.1

4.7

116.2

23.1

14.1

16.4

2007-08

224.6

19.0

4.8

137.9

19.7

15.2

20.9

2008-09P

229.9

22.0

4.6

109.6

18.2

19.6

21.5

P:   Provisional.
*     Works out to 12.4 per cent, with the exclusion of prepayment of external debt of US $ 3,430 million.
**  Works out to 8.2 per cent with the exclusion of pre payment of external debt of US $ 3,797 million and redemption of
Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs) of US $ 5,549 million.
^  Works out to 5.7 per cent with the exclusion of pre payment of external debt of US $ 381 million.
# Works out to 6.3 per cent with the exclusion of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) repayments of US $ 7.1 billion and pre payment of external debt of US $ 23.5 million.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Government of India and Reserve Bank of India.


5

(v) The share of concessional debt in total external debt declined to 18.2 per cent as at end-March 2009 from 19.7 per cent at end-March 2008, reflecting the continuing increase in non-concessional private debt in India’s external debt.

(vi) The ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves at 19.6 per cent as at end-March 2009 was higher than that of 15.2 per cent in the previous year.

(vii) The share of short-term debt in total debt increased to 21.5 per cent at end-March 2009 from 20.9 per cent at end-March 2008.

11. Cross Country Comparison

(i) According to the latest data available on Global Development Finance Online Database, World Bank, the international comparison of external debt of the twenty most indebted countries revealed that India was the fifth most indebted country in 2007 as compared with third position in 1990 (Table 13).

Table 13: International Comparison of Top Twenty Debtor Countries, 2007

External debt stocks, total (US $ million)

Concessional debt/Total debt (EDT) (per cent)

Debt service ratio (per cent)

External Debt to GNI (per cent)

Short-term debt/Total debt (EDT) (per cent)

Forex Reserves to Total Debt (per cent)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

China

373.6

10.1

2.2

11.6

54.5

413.9

Russian Federation

370.2

0.4

9.1

29.4

21.4

129.1

Turkey

251.5

2.1

32.1

38.8

16.6

30.4

Brazil

237.5

1.0

27.8

18.7

16.5

75.9

India

224.6

19.7

4.8

19.0

20.9

137.9

Poland

195.4

0.4

25.6

47.7

30.9

33.6

Mexico

178.1

0.6

12.5

17.7

5.1

49.0

Indonesia

140.8

26.2

10.5

33.9

24.8

40.4

Argentina

127.8

1.3

13.0

49.7

29.8

36.1

Kazakhstan

96.1

1.0

49.6

103.7

12.2

18.4

Romania

85.4

1.6

19.1

51.5

35.7

46.8

Ukraine

73.6

2.2

16.9

52.9

31.1

44.1

Philippines

65.8

20.0

13.7

41.9

10.8

51.2

Thailand

63.1

9.6

8.1

26.5

34.3

138.7

Chile

58.6

0.4

14.2

40.3

22.7

28.7

Malaysia

53.7

6.1

4.6

29.4

28.4

189.9

Croatia

48.6

2.1

33.0

97.7

10.5

28.1

Colombia

45.0

2.1

22.0

22.5

11.9

46.6

South Africa

43.4

-

5.9

15.8

38.2

75.9

Venezuela, RB

43.1

0.5

7.4

18.7

27.1

78.2

Source: Data for India as published by national authorities for 2007-08 and those for other countries as at end-December 2007 as available in World Bank’s Global Development Finance Online Database.

(ii) The element of concessionality in India’s external debt portfolio was the third highest after Indonesia and Philippines.

(iii) India’s debt service ratio was third lowest with China and Malaysia having first and second lowest debt service ratio, respectively.

(iv) In terms of ratio of external debt to Gross National Income (GNI), India’s position was sixth lowest, with China having the lowest ratio of external debt to GNI.

(v) India’s position with respect to short-term debt to total external debt was eighth lowest with Mexico having the lowest ratio of short-term debt to total external debt.

(vi) In terms of reserves to total debt, India’s position was fourth as China, Malaysia and Thailand had higher reserves to debt ratio than India.

(vii) The Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS) database, jointly developed by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, brings out detailed external debt data of countries that are subscribing to IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard/ General Data Dissemination System. The position in respect of the reporting countries for the third and fourth quarters of the calendar year 2008, which has been published by the World Bank (http:// go.worldbank.org/6V603CE490) is given at Annex I.

Statement 1 : India’s External Debt Outstanding

(Rs. crore)

Item

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep- 08

Dec-08

Mar-09

1

2

3

4

5

6

I.

Multilateral

157,901

170,269

182,594

193,297

201,565

 

A.

Government borrowing

144,627

155,456

165,771

175,056

181,997

   

i)

Concessional

107,395

114,576

120,061

123,851

127,771

     

a)

IDA

105,947

113,042

118,450

122,245

126,127

     

b)

Others #

1,448

1,534

1,611

1,606

1,644

   

ii)

Non-concessional

37,232

40,880

45,710

51,205

54,226

     

a)

IBRD

22,630

24,549

26,820

28,583

29,948

     

b)

Others ##

14,601

16,332

18,890

22,622

24,278

 

B.

Non-Government borrowing

13,274

14,813

16,823

18,240

19,568

   

i)

Concessional

-

-

-

-

-

   

ii)

Non-concessional

13,274

14,813

16,823

18,240

19,568

     

a)

Public sector

10,352

11,449

12,693

13,855

14,299

       

IBRD

4,690

5,390

5,993

6,773

7,106

       

Others ##

5,662

6,060

6,699

7,082

7,193

     

b)

Financial institutions

2,350

2,781

3,130

3,335

3,721

       

IBRD

593

647

700

729

744

       

Others ##

1,757

2,133

2,430

2,607

2,977

     

c)

Private sector IBRD Others

572

583

1,000

1,050

1,548

572

583

1,000

1,050

1,548

II.

Bilateral

78,776

80,422

88,222

103,378

104,882

 

A.

Government borrowing

59,391

59,413

64,903

75,687

74,662

   

i)

Concessional

59,391

59,413

64,903

75,687

74,662

   

ii)

Non-concessional

-

-

-

-

-

 

B.

Non-Government borrowing

19,385

21,009

23,319

27,691

30,220

   

i)

Concessional

1,737

1,852

1,897

1,951

3,262

     

a)

Public sector

1,226

1,262

1,293

1,289

1,156

     

b)

Financial institutions

511

590

604

662

2,106

     

c)

Private sector

-

-

-

-

-

   

ii)

Non-concessional

17,648

19,157

21,422

25,740

26,958

     

a)

Public sector

10,097

11,135

12,285

14,580

14,900

     

b)

Financial institutions

3,735

3,820

3,930

4,238

4,281

     

c)

Private sector

3,816

4,202

5,207

6,922

7,777

III.

International Monetary Fund

-

-

-

-

-

IV.

Trade Credit

41,413

47,373

56,869

67,030

74,400

 

a)

Buyers’ credit

33,115

38,965

47,811

56,916

64,265

 

b)

Suppliers’ credit

3,134

3,242

3,414

3,532

3,643

 

c)

Export credit component

         
   

of bilateral credit

5,164

5,166

5,644

6,581

6,492

 

d)

Export credit for defence purposes

-

-

-

-

-


Statement 1 : India’s External Debt Outstanding (Concld.)

(Rs. crore)

Item

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep- 08

Dec-08

Mar-09

1

2

3

4

5

6

V.

Commercial Borrowing

249,255

262,243

284,958

318,039

319,302

 

a)

Commercial bank loans

160,844

171,992

184,478

213,356

220,641

 

b)

Securitized borrowings $ (including FCCBs)

82,376

83,959

93,848

97,865

91,603

 
c)

Loans/securitized borrowings, etc. with multilateral/bilateral guarantee and IFC(W)

6,035

6,292

6,633

6,819

7,058

 

d)

Self Liquidating Loans

-

-

-

-

-

VI.

NRI Deposits (above one-year maturity)

174,623

183,019

190,660

195,254

210,118

 

a)

NR(E)RA

106,824

109,888

112,081

112,542

119,181

 

b)

FCNR(B)

56,651

60,134

63,381

62,681

66,803

 

c)

NRO Deposits

11,148

12,997

15,198

20,031

24,134

VII

. Rupee Debt *

8,063

8,015

8,011

8,006

7,779

 

a)

Defence

7,170

7,148

7,146

7,141

6,954

 

b)

Civilian +

893

867

865

865

825

VIII

Short-term Debt

187,924

208,820

237,846

225,927

251,529

 

a)

Trade Related credits

172,583

195,676

220,158

207,944

234,219

   

1)

Above 180 days

91,502

104,631

122,988

119,015

118,936

   

2)

Upto 180 days

81,081

91,045

97,170

88,929

115,283

 

b)

FII investment in Government

         
   

Treasury Bills and other

         
   

instruments

2,603

2,905

7,922

10,812

10,522

 

c)

Investment in Treasury Bills by foreign central banks and international Institutions etc.

620

641

582

529

534

 

d)

External Debt Liabilities of :

12,118

9,598

9,184

6,642

6,254

   

1)

Central Bank

4,458

4,188

4,108

3,752

3,892

   

2)

Commercial Banks

7,660

5,410

5,076

2,890

2,362

IX.

Gross Total

897,955

960,161

1,049,160

1,110,931

1,169,575

Memo Items

         

A.

Total Long-term Debt

710,031

751,341

811,314

885,004

918,046

B.

Short-term Debt

187,924

208,820

237,846

225,927

251,529

 

Concessional Debt

176,586

183,856

194,872

209,495

213,474

 

As % of Total Debt

19.7

19.1

18.6

18.9

18.3

 

Short Term Debt

187,924

208,820

237,846

225,927

251,529

 

As % of Total Debt

20.9

21.7

22.7

20.3

21.5

P :   Provisional.         – : Nil.
#  :   Refers to Debt outstanding to Institutions like IFAD, OPEC & EEC(SAC).
## Refers to debt outstanding against loans from ADB.
$  :  Includes net investment by 100 per cent FII debt funds.
*   :  Debt denominated in Rupees and payable in exports.
+  : Includes Rupee suppliers’ credit from end-March 1990 onwards.
Notes : Multilateral loans do not include revaluation of IBRD pooled loans and exchange rate adjustment under IDA loans for Pre-1971 credits.


Statement 2 : India’s External Debt Outstanding

(US $ million)

Item

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep- 08

Dec-08

Mar-09

1

2

3

4

5

6

I.

Multilateral

39,490

39,644

38,903

39,892

39,566

 

A.

Government borrowing

36,171

36,194

35,319

36,128

35,725

   

i)

Concessional

26,859

26,676

25,580

25,560

25,081

     

a)

IDA

26,497

26,319

25,237

25,229

24,758

     

b)

Others #

362

357

343

331

323

   

ii)

Non-concessional

9,312

9,518

9,739

10,568

10,644

     

a)

IBRD

5,660

5,716

5,714

5,899

5,878

     

b)

Others ##

3,652

3,802

4,025

4,669

4,766

 

B.

Non-Government borrowing

3,319

3,450

3,584

3,764

3,841

   

i)

Concessional

-

-

-

-

-

   

ii)

Non-concessional

3,319

3,450

3,584

3,764

3,841

     

a)

Public sector

2,589

2,666

2,704

2,859

2,807

       

IBRD

1,173

1,255

1,277

1,398

1,395

       

Others ##

1,416

1,411

1,427

1,461

1,412

     

b)

Financial institutions

587

648

667

688

730

       

IBRD

148

151

149

150

146

       

Others ##

439

497

518

538

584

     

c)

Private sector

143

136

213

217

304

       

IBRD

       

Others

143

136

213

217

304

II.

Bilateral

19,701

18,724

18,795

21,336

20,587

 

A.

Government borrowing

14,853

13,833

13,828

15,620

14,655

   

i)

Concessional

14,853

13,833

13,828

15,620

14,655

   

ii)

Non-concessional

-

-

-

-

-

 

B.

Non-Government borrowing

4,848

4,891

4,967

5,716

5,932

   

i)

Concessional

435

431

404

403

640

     

a)

Public sector

307

294

275

266

227

     

b)

Financial institutions

128

137

129

137

413

     

c)

Private sector

-

-

-

-

-

   

ii)

Non-concessional

4,413

4,460

4,563

5,313

5,292

     

a)

Public sector

2,525

2,593

2,617

3,009

2,925

     

b)

Financial institutions

934

889

837

875

840

     

c)

Private sector

954

978

1,109

1,429

1,527

III.

International Monetary Fund

-

-

-

-

-

IV.

Trade Credit

10,358

11,030

12,116

13,833

14,604

 

a)

Buyers’ credit

8,282

9,072

10,187

11,746

12,615

 

b)

Suppliers’ credit

784

755

727

729

715

 

c)

Export credit component

-

-

-

-

-

   

of bilateral credit

1,292

1,203

1,202

1,358

1,274

 

d)

Export credit for

         
   

defence purposes

-

-

-

-

-


Statement 2 : India’s External Debt Outstanding (Concld.)

(US $ million)

Item

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep- 08

Dec-08

Mar-09

1

2

3

4

5

6

V.

Commercial Borrowing

62,337

61,058

60,713

65,636

62,676

 

a)

Commercial bank loans

40,226

40,045

39,305

44,032

43,310

 

b)

Securitized borrowings $

20,602

19,548

19,995

20,197

17,981

   

(including FCCBs)

         
 

c)

Loans/securitized borrowings,

         
   

etc. with multilateral/bilateral

         
   

guarantee and IFC(W)

1,509

1,465

1,413

1,407

1,385

 

d)

Self Liquidating Loans

-

-

-

-

-

VI.

NRI Deposits

43,672

42,612

40,622

40,296

41,554

 

(above one-year maturity)

         
 

a)

NR(E)RA

26,716

25,585

23,880

23,226

23,570

 

b)

FCNR(B)

14,168

14,001

13,504

12,936

13,211

 

c)

NRO Deposits

2,788

3,026

3,238

4,134

4,773

VII.

Rupee Debt *

2,016

1,866

1,707

1,653

1,527

 

a)

Defence

1,793

1,664

1,523

1,474

1,365

 

b)

Civilian +

223

202

184

179

162

VIII

Short-term Debt

46,999

48,619

50,675

46,625

49,373

 

a)

Trade Related credits

43,162

45,559

46,907

42,915

45,975

   

1)

Above 180 days

22,884

24,361

26,204

24,562

23,346

   

2)

Upto 180 days

20,278

21,198

20,703

18,353

22,629

 

b)

FII investment in Government

         
   

Treasury Bills and other

         
   

instruments

651

676

1,688

2,231

2,065

 

c)

Investment in Treasury Bills

         
   

by foreign central banks and

         
   

international Institutions etc.

155

149

124

109

105

 

d)

External Debt Liabilities of :

3,031

2,235

1,956

1,370

1,228

   

1)

Central Bank

1,115

975

875

774

764

   

2)

Commercial Banks

1,916

1,260

1,081

596

464

IX.

Gross Total

224,573

223,553

223,531

229,271

229,887

Memo Items

         

A.

Total Long-term Debt

177,574

174,934

172,856

182,646

180,514

B.

Short-term Debt

46,999

48,619

50,675

46,625

49,373

 

Concessional Debt

44,163

42,806

41,519

43,236

41,903

 

As % of Total Debt

19.7

19.1

18.6

18.9

18.2

 

Short Term Debt

46,999

48,619

50,675

46,625

49,373

 

As % of Total Debt

20.9

21.7

22.7

20.3

21.5

P :    Provisional.     – : Nil.
#       Refers to Debt outstanding to Institutions like IFAD, OPEC & EEC(SAC).
## Refers to debt outstanding against loans from ADB.
$      Includes net investment by 100 per cent FII debt funds.
*       Debt denominated in Rupees and payable in exports.
+     Includes Rupee suppliers’ credit from end-March 1990 onwards.
Notes : Multilateral loans do not include revaluation of IBRD pooled loans and exchange rate adjustment under IDA loans for Pre-1971 credits.


Annex I
Gross External Debt Position of QEDS Reporting Countries for
End-September and End-December 2008

(US$ million)

Sr. No.

Countries

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

Short-term

Long-term

Total

Short-term

Long-term

Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1.

Argentina

53,660

75,277

1,28,937

56,253

71,859

1,28,112

2.

Armenia

429

2,748

3,177

465

2,962

3,427

3.

Australia

2,73,741

5,65,950

8,39,691

2,28,190

5,35,482

7,63,671

4.

Austria

3,03,048

5,61,405

8,64,453

2,65,533

5,61,961

8,27,494

5.

Belarus

8,755

5,802

14,557

7,253

7,565

14,818

6.

Belgium

12,02,725

4,20,123

16,22,848

9,64,129

3,82,388

13,46,517

7.

Bolivia

317

5,484

5,801

267

5,656

5,923

8.

Brazil

47,507

2,25,459

2,72,966

36,466

2,26,466

2,62,931

9.

Bulgaria

18,913

32,909

51,822

18,493

32,624

51,117

10.

Canada

2,99,552

5,10,854

8,10,406

3,01,712

4,49,599

7,51,311

11.

Chile

18,616

50,426

69,042

14,251

50,517

64,768

12.

Colombia

5,616

39,793

45,409

5,684

40,708

46,392

13.

Costa Rica

3,509

5,297

8,805

3,864

5,218

9,082

14.

Croatia

4,123

47,721

51,843

6,620

47,830

54,450

15.

Czech Republic

28,553

61,187

89,740

25,941

54,487

80,428

16.

Denmark

2,88,064

3,00,587

5,88,651

2,99,226

2,84,127

5,83,353

17.

Ecuador

-

-

-

-

-

-

18.

Egypt

2,651

29,831

32,481

2,842

29,281

32,123

19.

El Salvador

1,497

8,873

10,369

1,542

9,149

10,691

20.

Estonia

9,982

17,077

27,059

10,623

16,778

27,401

21.

Finland

1,17,488

2,26,735

3,44,223

1,09,624

2,18,935

3,28,559

22.

France

22,47,510

28,90,585

51,38,095

21,38,532

28,63,164

50,01,696

23.

Georgia

1,062

6,081

7,143

972

6,330

7,302

24.

Germany

19,78,058

34,50,105

54,28,163

17,23,723

35,26,777

52,50,499

25.

Greece

1,29,621

3,70,543

5,00,164

1,56,216

3,48,397

5,04,612

26.

Hong Kong,

           
 

China

5,10,248

1,67,531

6,77,779

4,83,877

1,76,053

6,59,931

27.

Hungary

26,422

1,83,990

2,10,412

26,111

1,83,523

2,09,634

28.

India

50,675

1,72,856

2,23,531

46,625

1,82,646

2,29,271

29.

Indonesia

20,264

1,31,475

1,51,739

20,488

1,34,578

1,55,067

30.

Ireland

10,81,982

13,08,683

23,90,665

11,10,636

12,01,087

23,11,724

31.

Israel

35,512

53,423

88,935

32,956

52,312

85,268

32.

Italy

9,44,407

16,07,011

25,51,418

8,09,594

15,49,516

23,59,110


Annex I
Gross External Debt Position of QEDS Reporting Countries for End-September and End-December 2008 (Concld.)

(US$ million)

Sr. No.

Countries

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

Short-term

Long-term

Total

Short-term

Long-term

Total

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

33.

Japan

12,51,745

8,02,838

20,54,583

14,66,347

8,78,336

23,44,683

34.

Kazakhstan

10,946

95,117

1,06,064

10,174

97,639

1,07,813

35.

Korea

1,89,598

2,35,918

4,25,516

1,51,056

2,29,439

3,80,495

36.

Kyrgyz

           
 

Republic

292

3,060

3,352

385

3,082

3,467

37.

Latvia

15,014

27,452

42,466

14,091

27,963

42,054

38.

Lithuania

9,066

24,426

33,492

8,169

24,299

32,469

39.

Malaysia

38,796

43,355

82,151

30,892

44,399

75,292

40.

Mexico

28,679

1,83,493

2,12,172

24,218

1,76,175

2,00,393

41.

Moldova

1,299

2,596

3,895

1,429

2,696

4,125

42.

Netherlands

12,57,438

14,31,377

26,88,815

10,68,222

13,71,643

24,39,864

43.

Norway

3,02,466

2,56,742

5,59,208

2,74,891

2,76,705

5,51,596

44.

Paraguay

710

2,653

3,363

735

2,772

3,507

45.

Peru

8,934

26,931

35,865

6,148

28,440

34,587

46.

Poland

62,275

2,03,832

2,66,107

50,809

1,91,248

2,42,057

47.

Portugal

1,95,715

3,08,391

5,04,106

1,80,351

3,04,359

4,84,710

48.

Russian

           
 

Federation

1,15,759

4,26,322

5,42,082

79,779

4,04,948

4,84,726

49.

Slovak

           
 

Republic

20,255

32,791

53,045

20,102

32,424

52,527

50.

Slovenia

17,842

39,257

57,100

16,170

38,240

54,409

51.

South Africa

27,978

49,547

77,525

25,462

46,349

71,811

52.

Spain

7,12,137

16,93,443

24,05,580

6,91,557

16,22,086

23,13,643

53.

Sweden

-

-

-

-

-

-

54.

Switzerland

9,99,466

4,31,423

14,30,890

9,12,796

3,92,161

13,04,956

55.

Thailand

21,201

44,023

65,224

20,317

44,529

64,846

56.

Tunisia

4,602

16,010

20,612

4,330

16,442

20,773

57.

Turkey

57,804

2,32,911

2,90,715

50,714

2,26,120

2,76,834

58.

Ukraine

29,345

75,494

1,04,839

21,983

81,253

1,03,236

59.

United

           
 

Kingdom

80,71,790

26,77,095

1,07,48,884

69,80,002

24,08,010

93,88,012

60.

United States

53,47,436

82,80,023

1,36,27,459

54,14,396

82,27,411

1,36,41,807

61.

Uruguay

351

10,863

11,214

115

10,626

10,742

Source: World Bank and IMF.


*Prepared in the Division of International Finance, Department of Economic Analysis and Policy

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