Analysis of seasonal behavior helps in differentiating between the seasonal changes and long-run changes of economic time series, which is useful for understanding the underlying economic phenomenon. This article presents the estimated monthly seasonal factors of selected 85 economic/ financial time series from broad sectors, namely, Monetary and Banking; Price; Industrial Production; External Trade and Services Sector, covering the period 2004-05 to 2013-14. The exercise revealed gradual decline in variation of seasonality in major monetary aggregates. For Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs), the seasonal variation of Aggregate Deposits and Credit showed moderation in recent period. Seasonality in WPI-All commodities remained low during the reference period. Within WPI, ‘Primary Articles’ exhibited more seasonal variation than ‘Manufactured Products’. Seasonality in different CPI series have been stable in the recent years but consistently higher than WPI-All Commodities. Seasonality of IIP-General Index increased steadily over the reference period. Merchandise export is found to have higher seasonal variation than merchandise import post 2007-08. Introduction: Economic time series, when measured at an interval less than a year, exhibits seasonal fluctuations around its annual trend. Such repetitive seasonal variations can occur due to climatic conditions, production cycle characteristics, seasonal nature of economic activity, festivals, vacation practices etc. Even seasonality, being integral part of data generating process, its magnitude may vary from year to year. Analysis of its direction and magnitude is useful in interpretation of movements of economic variables over time. Seasonal adjustment, i.e., removal of seasonal effects, helps differentiate between the seasonal changes and long-run changes in the variables and is useful from the policy perspective in understanding the underlying economic phenomenon. The predictable recurring of seasonal fluctuations also allows the economic agents to setup policies or measurements to attenuate the impact. In this context, monthly seasonal factors for selected economic and financial time series of the Indian economy are being regularly published in the RBI Bulletin since 19801. 2. Data Coverage and Methodology For estimating and analysing the seasonal factors, 85 monthly economic/financial time series covering (i) Monetary and Banking Indicators (17 series); (ii) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (26 series); (iii) Consumer Price Index (CPI) (3 series); (iv) Industrial Production (30 series); (v) External Trade Sector (3 series) and (vi) Services Sector Indicators (6 series) have been considered in this article. The reference period was broadly considered from April 1994 to March 2014, i.e., last 20 years. For some series, the reference period was less than 10 years depending on the availability of consistent time series data. The seasonal factors have been estimated using X-13ARIMA-SEATS software package developed by the US Bureau of Census2, taking care of Diwali as major festival as well as trading day effects. The seasonality of the series is further subjected to various parametric and non-parametric statistical test procedures for their statistical significance. 3. Salient Findings Seasonal Variation during Last Ten Years (2004-05 to 2013-14) The average monthly seasonal factors over the last ten years (2004-05 to 2013-14) are presented in Table 1. The annual estimates of dispersion in seasonal factors, in terms of range (difference between peak and trough values of Seasonal Factors (SF) during a year), during the period, are presented in Table 2. The classification of variables as per range of seasonal factors during 2013-14 is provided in Table 3. The list of top-twenty and bottom-twenty series based on the average range of seasonal factors, during last five years (i.e., 2009-10 to 2013-14) and the corresponding peak and trough months are presented in Table 4. The salient features of observed seasonal variation over the reference period for some of the selected series during the last ten years are briefly discussed below. 3.1 Monetary and Banking Indicators 3.1.1 The following chart (Chart 1) exhibits the peak (blue) and trough (red) of monthly seasonal factors of Broad Money (M3) for every year in the secondary axis and their difference known as range(green) in the primary axis. Range of a series shows the change in seasonal variation over the period. Rest of the article explains the variation in seasonality by plotting the range of important economic series over time. 3.1.2 Seasonal variation in Broad Money (M3) was observed to be lower than Currency in Circulation, Narrow Money (M1) and Reserve Money (RM) over the years. After showing upward movement till 2006-07, the range of M3 declined gradually (Table 2). 3.1.3 The seasonal variations of aggregate deposits (SCBs) and Non-Food Credit (SCBs) exhibited similar movements for the entire reference period while the range of estimated seasonal factors for Aggregate Deposits always remained lower than Non-Food Credit. The seasonality of these two series exhibited downward movement since last couple of years. Seasonality in Investment indicated an increasing pattern (Table 2 and Chart 2).
3.1.4 Within aggregate deposits, demand deposits of SCBs witnessed higher seasonal fluctuations than Time Deposits of SCBs, which remained stable within the narrow band of 1.4 to 2.0 (Table 2). Seasonality of demand deposits remained within the range of 12.9- 14.2 till 2008-09 and started declining steadily thereafter.
3.2 Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 3.2.1 The range of seasonal factors of WPI-All Commodities increased from 1.4 in 2004-05 to 1.7 in 2007-08, and thereafter, reverted to 1.1 in 2010-11 before the gradual increase to 1.4 in 2013-14 (Table 2). The seasonality in ‘Primary Articles’ prices was more than three times the seasonality in WPI-Manufactured Products. Also, during the last four years, seasonal variation for WPI-Manufactured Products narrowed down against gradual increase in WPI-Primary Articles (Table 2 and Chart 3).
3.2.2 Within the Primary Articles group, the seasonal variation in WPI-Food Articles increased from 4.9 in 2004-05 to 6.8 in 2013-14 whereas it ranged between 2.2-3.1 for WPI-Non Food Articles during the reference period (Table 2 and Chart 4).
3.2.3 Within the WPI-Food Articles, the pulses group displayed more seasonal variation than the Cereals group. Both WPI-Cereals and WPI-Pulses exhibited stable seasonality in the range of around 2 and 5 respectively (Table 2 and Chart 5).
3.3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 3.3.1 In the case of CPI for Agricultural Labourers (AL) and Rural Labourers (RL), similar movement in seasonal variations was observed during the last ten years with CPI-AL having slightly higher variation than the CPI-RL. The seasonality of different CPI series were consistently higher than WPI-All Commodities. The difference between the seasonal variations of CPI series and WPI-All Commodities have however, widened after 2008-09 (Table 2 and Chart 6).
3.4 Industrial Production 3.4.1 Seasonal variation of IIP-General exhibited slight upward movement during the reference period. Among the three major sectors of IIP, (viz., Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity), IIP-Mining and IIP-Electricity exhibited the highest and lowest seasonal variation respectively with IIP-Mining showing an upward trend. IIP-Manufacturing displayed similar seasonality as IIP-General (Table 2 and Chart 7).
3.4.2 Among the use-based classification goods, IIP-Consumer Non-durable goods exhibited highest seasonality, whereas IIP-Intermediate Goods was the only group where seasonality has reduced over the years and it showed lowest seasonal variations throughout the reference period, except for 2008-09 and 2009-10 (Chart 8). Seasonal variations in IIP for Basic goods and Consumer goods have increased in recent years.
3.4.3 The seasonal variations of production of ‘Cement’ and ‘Steel’ exhibited opposite movements during 2004- 05 to 2013-14 with higher magnitude of seasonality in Cement than Steel .The seasonality in ‘Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles’ decreased from 37.4 in 2004-05 to 28.6 in 2007-08 and thereafter increased steadily to 31.6 in 2013-14 (Table 2). 3.5 Services Sector Indicators 3.5.1 Over the reference period, seasonality in ‘Railway Freight Traffic’ was higher as compared to that of ‘Cargo Handled at Major Ports’. The seasonal variation of ‘Railway Freight Traffic’ gradually increased from 19.9 in 2004-05 to 21.6 in 2013-14 whereas seasonal variation of ‘Cargo Handled at Major Ports’ decreased from 18.0 in 2004-05 to 15.0 in 2013-14. In last 5 years, the gap in seasonality is widening between these two series (Table 2). 3.5.2 The seasonal variation of passenger flown in Domestic area has increased over the years compared to passenger flown internationally (Table 2). 3.6 External Trade (Merchandise) The seasonal variation in export was higher than import except during 2006-09. The gap between variations of seasonality increased in subsequent years. Non-Oil Non-Gold Import and total merchandise import have shown similar seasonality (Table 2 and Chart 9).
4 High and Low Seasonal Variation Based on the average range of monthly seasonal factors during last five years (i.e. 2009-10 to 2013-14), External trade data and Services Sector indicators have exhibited highest seasonal volatility followed by industrial production (IIP General and its components) while seasonal variations of WPI and CPI have been found to be lower than other series. Money and Banking series have shown lower seasonal variability relatively. Comparing seasonal variability of all 85 series, ‘IIP-Food products and beverages’, ‘IIP-Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment’, ‘Coal Production’, ‘Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles’ and ‘Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles’ have exhibited high seasonal variation. On the other hand, ‘WPI-Grain Mill Products’, ‘WPI-Rice’, ‘WPI-Non-Food Articles’, ‘WPI-Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) Group’ and ‘WPI-Food Grains (Cereals and Pulses)’ have shown low seasonal variation. (Table 4). 5 Post Crisis: Seasonal Variation It was observed that, out of 85 series the seasonal variation for 39 series increased post crisis (after 2008- 09). The series with substantial increase in seasonal variation post crisis are mainly from production related except some of the directly affected Money and banking series like ‘Assets with Banking System (SCBs)’ and highly inelastic price related series like ‘WPI-Sugar’.
Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series |
Series/Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
101.4 |
100.9 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
99.8 |
99.7 |
99.7 |
99.4 |
99.1 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
100.7 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
101.7 |
101.5 |
101.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
97.2 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
100.3 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
101.7 |
101.5 |
101.1 |
101.8 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
97.2 |
98.7 |
98.6 |
100.3 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
102.5 |
101.4 |
100.6 |
99.1 |
98.6 |
99.4 |
98.3 |
98.3 |
99.2 |
99.2 |
100.0 |
103.6 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
103.1 |
103.5 |
101.9 |
99.3 |
98.4 |
97.2 |
98.2 |
99.1 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.3 |
100.3 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
103.1 |
101.8 |
101.1 |
99.7 |
98.9 |
97.8 |
98.6 |
99.2 |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.9 |
104.1 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
103.0 |
103.3 |
102.0 |
99.3 |
98.4 |
97.1 |
98.5 |
99.1 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.5 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
103.0 |
103.4 |
102.1 |
99.2 |
98.3 |
97.0 |
98.4 |
99.3 |
99.1 |
99.5 |
100.2 |
100.5 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
101.3 |
100.6 |
99.9 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
99.9 |
99.5 |
98.9 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
100.9 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
101.4 |
98.3 |
97.7 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
102.5 |
99.1 |
98.2 |
99.1 |
98.8 |
99.9 |
108.6 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
100.6 |
100.2 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
99.6 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
104.4 |
98.8 |
100.8 |
101.4 |
101.9 |
101.4 |
99.2 |
100.4 |
97.8 |
96.8 |
98.4 |
99.6 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
102.8 |
100.9 |
102.1 |
97.9 |
99.0 |
99.7 |
98.4 |
94.0 |
97.8 |
95.6 |
99.4 |
112.4 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
101.3 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
99.6 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
102.6 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
100.6 |
100.0 |
100.1 |
98.9 |
98.6 |
100.7 |
99.2 |
99.3 |
100.3 |
99.7 |
100.1 |
102.5 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
101.1 |
99.9 |
99.8 |
99.3 |
99.0 |
99.7 |
99.2 |
99.1 |
99.9 |
99.9 |
100.3 |
102.8 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
100.8 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
101.4 |
101.8 |
100.7 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
98.2 |
98.5 |
98.5 |
97.9 |
B. WPI (Base: 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
100.2 |
100.0 |
100.1 |
100.4 |
100.5 |
100.6 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.4 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Articles |
99.6 |
99.6 |
100.5 |
101.1 |
101.7 |
101.3 |
101.3 |
101.2 |
99.1 |
98.8 |
97.9 |
97.9 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.9 |
101.2 |
101.7 |
102.0 |
102.7 |
102.2 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
97.1 |
96.9 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
99.1 |
99.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.1 |
100.2 |
101.2 |
101.1 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.3 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
99.9 |
100.0 |
100.7 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
100.6 |
99.7 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
98.8 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
98.6 |
99.2 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
101.2 |
101.9 |
102.2 |
102.3 |
100.2 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
99.2 |
99.5 |
99.4 |
99.9 |
100.5 |
100.7 |
101.3 |
101.0 |
100.2 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
99.2 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
98.4 |
98.1 |
98.4 |
100.4 |
101.2 |
101.5 |
102.6 |
102.8 |
101.2 |
99.5 |
98.2 |
97.8 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
97.7 |
98.3 |
100.7 |
104.6 |
105.7 |
106.7 |
108.8 |
106.9 |
95.1 |
93.5 |
90.5 |
90.9 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
99.9 |
99.8 |
100.0 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
99.8 |
99.9 |
100.0 |
99.7 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
98.6 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
101.7 |
100.9 |
100.7 |
99.0 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
100.3 |
100.0 |
98.7 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
95.6 |
95.6 |
98.1 |
97.8 |
97.3 |
98.8 |
99.7 |
104.2 |
105.0 |
105.5 |
102.5 |
99.8 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
98.7 |
99.7 |
100.5 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
99.2 |
99.0 |
99.9 |
100.3 |
101.4 |
100.7 |
100.1 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
99.2 |
101.6 |
101.1 |
102.6 |
102.3 |
101.4 |
99.3 |
99.2 |
98.7 |
98.8 |
98.8 |
98.2 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
99.2 |
99.8 |
100.0 |
100.9 |
100.8 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
100.1 |
99.7 |
99.9 |
99.8 |
99.0 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
100.5 |
100.3 |
100.4 |
100.4 |
100.7 |
100.5 |
99.0 |
99.2 |
99.5 |
99.9 |
99.4 |
100.5 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
98.9 |
99.2 |
99.7 |
101.9 |
101.9 |
102.9 |
99.9 |
99.6 |
99.3 |
99.7 |
98.8 |
98.3 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
98.7 |
99.2 |
99.8 |
102.8 |
103.0 |
104.0 |
99.9 |
99.5 |
98.5 |
99.3 |
98.0 |
97.7 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
100.4 |
100.8 |
101.5 |
101.5 |
101.6 |
101.0 |
98.6 |
98.1 |
98.6 |
99.5 |
99.2 |
99.3 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
100.4 |
100.5 |
100.3 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
99.8 |
99.7 |
99.7 |
100.2 |
100.4 |
100.6 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
100.1 |
99.9 |
99.3 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
98.9 |
98.1 |
98.3 |
99.2 |
99.4 |
100.0 |
100.5 |
101.0 |
101.0 |
101.6 |
101.4 |
100.4 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
99.0 |
98.6 |
98.1 |
99.0 |
100.2 |
101.5 |
101.4 |
101.7 |
101.5 |
100.7 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
99.8 |
100.2 |
100.1 |
100.4 |
100.9 |
100.5 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
100.4 |
100.4 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
100.1 |
100.0 |
99.8 |
99.6 |
99.5 |
99.8 |
99.8 |
100.1 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
100.5 |
100.7 |
100.4 |
100.2 |
100.2 |
100.0 |
99.7 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
99.6 |
99.8 |
100.1 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
99.2 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
100.7 |
100.8 |
100.6 |
101.1 |
100.9 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
99.3 |
98.9 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
98.9 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.7 |
100.9 |
101.1 |
101.0 |
100.4 |
99.8 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
99.0 |
99.1 |
99.6 |
100.2 |
100.7 |
100.8 |
101.1 |
101.0 |
100.3 |
99.8 |
99.4 |
99.0 |
Table 1: Average Monthly Seasonal Factors of Selected Economic Time Series (Concld.) |
Series/Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
D. IIP (Base 2004-05 = 100) General Index |
96.4 |
98.5 |
97.8 |
98.0 |
96.0 |
97.3 |
98.9 |
98.4 |
104.7 |
104.5 |
99.6 |
110.1 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
98.1 |
100.9 |
98.1 |
98.4 |
97.5 |
95.0 |
99.7 |
97.9 |
103.2 |
104.6 |
97.7 |
109.1 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
96.5 |
100.3 |
99.5 |
101.5 |
100.3 |
98.4 |
99.3 |
97.9 |
102.7 |
101.0 |
96.7 |
105.8 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
98.7 |
98.1 |
96.5 |
97.5 |
92.9 |
95.1 |
96.2 |
96.9 |
106.2 |
108.8 |
104.3 |
108.5 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
98.0 |
100.4 |
98.2 |
100.0 |
96.4 |
101.8 |
106.5 |
100.9 |
96.0 |
99.5 |
97.7 |
104.8 |
D.1.3.2 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
98.6 |
96.2 |
95.2 |
94.9 |
90.6 |
90.1 |
90.1 |
96.2 |
114.7 |
114.5 |
108.6 |
110.2 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
97.6 |
100.3 |
95.7 |
94.2 |
92.2 |
90.5 |
98.2 |
99.6 |
106.6 |
107.9 |
101.5 |
116.0 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
95.8 |
97.7 |
97.7 |
98.3 |
96.1 |
98.1 |
98.7 |
98.1 |
104.9 |
104.4 |
100.2 |
110.1 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
97.3 |
90.1 |
88.6 |
81.2 |
72.3 |
70.2 |
77.1 |
98.2 |
135.6 |
135.7 |
126.6 |
126.3 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles |
98.4 |
99.7 |
98.3 |
102.6 |
102.5 |
100.2 |
101.4 |
99.6 |
101.6 |
101.3 |
94.4 |
100.0 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials |
90.5 |
102.6 |
98.0 |
100.6 |
99.7 |
96.0 |
95.9 |
98.6 |
108.6 |
100.6 |
103.7 |
106.0 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products |
97.0 |
101.4 |
99.0 |
102.5 |
101.6 |
99.7 |
100.5 |
98.2 |
100.1 |
99.3 |
95.4 |
105.6 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media |
98.6 |
101.4 |
98.7 |
103.0 |
101.4 |
98.3 |
103.0 |
99.4 |
102.1 |
99.9 |
94.6 |
99.8 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel |
94.7 |
98.8 |
100.7 |
102.4 |
100.8 |
96.6 |
101.0 |
97.2 |
101.8 |
103.8 |
96.5 |
105.5 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products |
96.4 |
101.0 |
102.5 |
103.6 |
102.6 |
102.1 |
99.5 |
98.0 |
100.9 |
99.6 |
93.9 |
100.0 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products |
99.1 |
103.3 |
102.2 |
99.8 |
95.8 |
97.3 |
98.7 |
99.0 |
101.8 |
101.0 |
96.6 |
105.5 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
101.3 |
101.6 |
98.1 |
98.9 |
94.7 |
93.9 |
100.3 |
95.1 |
102.5 |
103.3 |
99.3 |
111.6 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals |
98.0 |
100.3 |
98.5 |
99.2 |
100.2 |
97.9 |
100.2 |
97.9 |
101.1 |
102.2 |
97.4 |
107.4 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
84.2 |
91.7 |
97.4 |
95.0 |
95.6 |
102.2 |
95.7 |
97.8 |
104.8 |
99.8 |
100.9 |
135.9 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
97.2 |
97.2 |
89.8 |
98.5 |
97.2 |
97.4 |
101.9 |
101.2 |
92.4 |
105.9 |
105.4 |
116.2 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
91.1 |
95.3 |
94.6 |
96.8 |
98.4 |
103.7 |
110.2 |
105.5 |
96.3 |
100.8 |
98.3 |
109.5 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
100.3 |
104.3 |
98.5 |
100.3 |
99.9 |
97.8 |
102.1 |
96.1 |
100.0 |
101.7 |
94.1 |
104.6 |
D.3 Cement Production |
105.2 |
104.3 |
100.0 |
95.9 |
90.8 |
91.3 |
98.0 |
92.2 |
102.1 |
105.9 |
101.2 |
113.9 |
D.4 Steel Production |
96.8 |
100.0 |
97.8 |
98.8 |
100.1 |
97.7 |
100.7 |
96.8 |
101.7 |
104.5 |
98.2 |
106.7 |
D.5 Coal Production |
90.9 |
93.3 |
88.8 |
86.6 |
84.7 |
83.4 |
97.5 |
103.0 |
113.0 |
116.3 |
109.9 |
133.7 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
98.9 |
101.3 |
99.4 |
101.4 |
100.8 |
98.0 |
102.0 |
98.7 |
102.1 |
101.6 |
92.8 |
102.9 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
96.1 |
100.5 |
100.0 |
101.8 |
101.0 |
95.9 |
100.4 |
97.9 |
101.7 |
103.6 |
96.4 |
104.5 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
81.5 |
94.8 |
98.8 |
105.8 |
106.5 |
103.9 |
108.2 |
106.8 |
108.2 |
102.3 |
93.9 |
89.1 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production |
97.5 |
101.4 |
98.4 |
102.0 |
100.8 |
98.0 |
102.9 |
99.6 |
102.6 |
102.0 |
92.0 |
102.7 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
91.7 |
94.3 |
89.1 |
97.0 |
97.2 |
99.3 |
101.2 |
102.8 |
96.4 |
107.3 |
104.3 |
118.2 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
99.6 |
102.9 |
95.1 |
97.6 |
96.5 |
92.5 |
99.9 |
99.7 |
103.5 |
105.8 |
96.9 |
109.3 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
97.7 |
101.1 |
96.7 |
97.7 |
95.3 |
92.6 |
97.8 |
97.9 |
104.3 |
106.4 |
98.6 |
113.8 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
83.0 |
89.0 |
95.6 |
92.0 |
95.0 |
105.6 |
100.0 |
96.5 |
100.4 |
105.7 |
105.9 |
129.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
100.8 |
112.2 |
104.2 |
95.5 |
92.9 |
88.5 |
98.6 |
100.2 |
109.4 |
103.8 |
96.3 |
97.0 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
96.1 |
99.9 |
101.1 |
107.1 |
104.5 |
92.9 |
92.2 |
94.8 |
106.8 |
110.4 |
94.2 |
100.7 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
94.1 |
99.4 |
96.6 |
100.7 |
102.5 |
104.1 |
110.6 |
100.8 |
101.9 |
95.2 |
91.5 |
102.2 |
F.1 Exports |
97.5 |
100.0 |
99.8 |
99.5 |
97.1 |
100.4 |
98.0 |
93.1 |
100.6 |
100.6 |
97.1 |
116.1 |
F.2 Imports |
100.5 |
107.4 |
100.0 |
102.5 |
99.1 |
103.9 |
104.1 |
97.1 |
97.5 |
98.7 |
90.0 |
99.3 |
F.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports |
96.0 |
105.6 |
103.0 |
102.8 |
99.1 |
101.9 |
103.4 |
99.3 |
101.3 |
98.7 |
89.8 |
98.4 |
Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors |
Series/Year |
2004- 05 |
2005- 06 |
2006- 07 |
2007- 08 |
2008- 09 |
2009- 10 |
2010- 11 |
2011- 12 |
2012- 13 |
2013- 14 |
Average Range |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
6.9 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
6.4 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
7.2 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
12.9 |
14.2 |
14.7 |
14.4 |
14.2 |
13.0 |
11.2 |
9.1 |
7.1 |
6.4 |
11.9 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
14.0 |
13.7 |
12.7 |
11.2 |
9.9 |
7.9 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
4.6 |
4.3 |
7.9 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
13.1 |
14.3 |
16.2 |
17.9 |
19.0 |
20.2 |
21.3 |
21.7 |
21.1 |
20.1 |
17.6 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Articles |
3.9 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
4.9 |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
5.9 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
5.8 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
20.1 |
20.1 |
19.4 |
18.6 |
17.7 |
17.0 |
16.8 |
17.0 |
18.1 |
19.0 |
18.4 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
5.2 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
13.9 |
12.3 |
10.6 |
9.1 |
8.1 |
7.6 |
8.6 |
10.2 |
11.4 |
12.2 |
10.4 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
5.2 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
7.9 |
8.3 |
7.6 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
4.0 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.9 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
6.1 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
6.7 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
3.7 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
4.9 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (2001=100) |
1.8 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
Table 2: Range (Difference Between Peak and Trough) of Seasonal Factors (Concld.) |
Series/Year |
2004- 05 |
2005- 06 |
2006- 07 |
2007- 08 |
2008- 09 |
2009- 10 |
2010- 11 |
2011- 12 |
2012- 13 |
2013- 14 |
Average Range |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
D. IIP (Base 2004-05 = 100) General Index |
12.7 |
13.5 |
13.9 |
14.1 |
14.0 |
14.4 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.8 |
16.0 |
14.5 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
11.5 |
12.4 |
13.2 |
13.9 |
14.4 |
14.8 |
15.2 |
15.3 |
15.2 |
15.0 |
14.1 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
9.1 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
9.8 |
9.4 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
9.4 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
17.9 |
16.0 |
15.2 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
15.3 |
16.0 |
16.9 |
17.9 |
18.4 |
16.3 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
12.4 |
12.4 |
11.6 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
13.1 |
14.3 |
11.5 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
23.0 |
22.6 |
23.1 |
23.8 |
24.7 |
25.2 |
26.0 |
26.3 |
27.3 |
27.9 |
25.0 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
21.1 |
22.7 |
23.9 |
25.0 |
25.8 |
26.4 |
26.9 |
27.3 |
27.5 |
27.6 |
25.4 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
14.2 |
14.7 |
14.8 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
14.4 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.6 |
15.6 |
14.8 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages* |
|
|
68.0 |
67.6 |
66.4 |
65.4 |
64.7 |
64.2 |
65.2 |
66.7 |
67.9 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles* |
|
|
9.2 |
9.2 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
8.3 |
8.5 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials* |
|
|
20.4 |
20.2 |
19.7 |
19.2 |
18.5 |
17.6 |
16.6 |
15.8 |
18.5 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products* |
|
|
11.0 |
11.0 |
11.0 |
10.6 |
10.1 |
9.6 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
10.2 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media* |
|
|
8.8 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
8.4 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
8.6 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel* |
|
|
11.3 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
10.7 |
10.8 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products* |
|
|
10.0 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
8.8 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products* |
|
|
8.5 |
8.9 |
9.1 |
9.4 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
9.7 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products* |
|
|
16.4 |
16.5 |
16.8 |
17.4 |
18.0 |
18.6 |
19.0 |
19.4 |
17.7 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals* |
|
|
10.6 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
10.4 |
10.1 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
10.7 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment* |
|
|
42.1 |
43.4 |
46.1 |
49.6 |
53.6 |
56.9 |
59.2 |
60.5 |
51.4 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers* |
|
|
25.9 |
25.9 |
26.0 |
26.2 |
26.5 |
26.6 |
26.7 |
26.9 |
26.3 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment* |
|
|
23.5 |
22.6 |
21.3 |
19.6 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
17.5 |
16.7 |
19.9 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
10.3 |
9.9 |
9.8 |
10.3 |
10.7 |
11.2 |
11.2 |
11.0 |
11.7 |
12.4 |
10.8 |
D.3 Cement Production |
21.7 |
21.3 |
21.2 |
21.6 |
22.5 |
23.4 |
24.1 |
25.0 |
25.7 |
26.2 |
24.2 |
D.4 Steel Production |
12.6 |
12.2 |
11.7 |
10.7 |
10.1 |
10.5 |
10.7 |
10.9 |
10.8 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
D.5 Coal Production |
39.2 |
42.2 |
45.7 |
48.5 |
50.4 |
52.3 |
54.5 |
56.3 |
57.2 |
57.2 |
50.4 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
10.1 |
10.1 |
10.1 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
10.2 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
10.1 |
10.0 |
10.2 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
9.5 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
8.6 |
8.1 |
8.6 |
9.6 |
10.5 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
9.4 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production* |
27.5 |
27.5 |
27.3 |
26.7 |
26.3 |
26.0 |
26.6 |
27.3 |
28.3 |
27.0 |
27.0 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production* |
11.1 |
11.5 |
12.0 |
12.1 |
11.8 |
11.2 |
10.9 |
10.6 |
10.3 |
10.4 |
11.2 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
37.4 |
32.5 |
28.8 |
28.6 |
29.0 |
29.5 |
29.8 |
30.1 |
30.6 |
31.6 |
30.8 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
18.0 |
18.3 |
18.2 |
17.8 |
17.3 |
16.7 |
16.3 |
15.7 |
15.3 |
15.0 |
16.9 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
19.9 |
20.7 |
21.3 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
21.6 |
21.2 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
57.5 |
53.3 |
50.4 |
47.5 |
45.2 |
43.3 |
42.0 |
41.5 |
41.7 |
42.3 |
46.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
21.7 |
20.8 |
21.1 |
22.6 |
23.8 |
25.3 |
26.0 |
26.5 |
26.3 |
26.2 |
24.0 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
20.7 |
20.0 |
19.3 |
18.4 |
17.8 |
16.9 |
16.9 |
17.4 |
18.1 |
18.6 |
18.4 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
13.6 |
14.6 |
16.4 |
18.3 |
20.0 |
21.5 |
22.5 |
22.4 |
21.6 |
20.9 |
19.2 |
F.1 Exports |
26.6 |
24.6 |
21.9 |
19.9 |
19.7 |
20.6 |
22.3 |
23.9 |
24.8 |
25.1 |
23.0 |
F.2 Imports |
20.6 |
21.7 |
22.7 |
22.3 |
20.6 |
17.4 |
14.5 |
12.2 |
12.1 |
12.9 |
17.7 |
F.3 Non-Oil Non-Gold Imports |
12.5 |
14.2 |
16.5 |
19.2 |
20.5 |
19.9 |
18.1 |
15.7 |
14.0 |
12.9 |
16.4 |
*Seasonal adjustment for these series is based on 8 to 9 years data depending on availability. Guidelines of both, Office of National Statistics (ONS), UK, and US Census Bureau, however, suggest using more than ten years data for estimating stable monthly seasonal factors. |
Table 3: Change in seasonal variation in 2013-14 vis-à-vis previous 5-years (2008-09 to 2012-13) |
Series |
2013-14 |
Average Range* |
Change |
Series |
2013-14 |
Average Range* |
Change |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
1.6 |
2.2 |
-0.5 |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
A.1.1.1 Net Bank Credit to Government |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.4 |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.5 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
A.1.1.2 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.4 |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.3 |
2.2 |
0.1 |
A.1.2 Narrow Money (M1) |
4.3 |
5.3 |
-1.0 |
D. IIP (Base: 2004-05=100) General Index |
16.0 |
14.9 |
1.1 |
A.1.2.1 Currency with Public |
5.4 |
6.0 |
-0.6 |
D.1.1 IIP - Basic Goods Industries |
15.0 |
15.0 |
0.0 |
A.1.3 Reserve Money (RM) |
5.6 |
6.4 |
-0.7 |
D.1.2 IIP - Intermediate Goods Industries |
8.6 |
9.2 |
-0.6 |
A.1.3.1 Currency in Circulation |
5.1 |
5.9 |
-0.8 |
D.1.3 IIP - Consumer Goods Industries |
18.4 |
16.2 |
2.2 |
A.1.3.1.1 Notes in Circulation |
5.5 |
6.1 |
-0.6 |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Durable Goods Industries |
14.3 |
10.8 |
3.5 |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
1.6 |
2.2 |
-0.6 |
D.1.3.2 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
14.3 |
10.8 |
3.5 |
A.2.1.1 Demand Deposits (SCBs) |
6.4 |
10.9 |
-4.6 |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
27.6 |
26.8 |
0.8 |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.4 |
1.8 |
-0.4 |
D.2.2 IIP - Manufacturing |
15.6 |
14.8 |
0.8 |
A.3.1 Cash in Hand and Balances with RBI (SCBs) |
4.3 |
6.8 |
-2.4 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
20.1 |
20.7 |
-0.6 |
D.2.2.2 IIP - Textiles |
8.3 |
8.3 |
0.0 |
A.3.3 Bank Credit (SCBs) |
2.8 |
3.8 |
-1.0 |
D.2.2.3 IIP - Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles of straw & plating materials |
15.8 |
18.3 |
-2.5 |
A.3.3.1 Loans, Cash, Credits and Overdrafts (SCBs) |
3.6 |
4.0 |
-0.4 |
D.2.2.4 IIP - Paper and paper products |
9.0 |
10.1 |
-1.1 |
A.3.3.2 Non-Food Credit (SCBs) |
2.8 |
3.9 |
-1.2 |
D.2.2.5 IIP - Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media |
9.2 |
8.5 |
0.7 |
A.3.4 Investments (SCBs) |
4.4 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
D.2.2.6 IIP - Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel |
10.9 |
10.7 |
0.2 |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.4 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
D.2.2.7 IIP - Chemicals and chemical products |
9.0 |
10.0 |
-1.0 |
B.1 WPI - Primary Article |
4.0 |
3.6 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.8 IIP - Rubber and plastics products |
10.8 |
9.8 |
1.0 |
B.1.1 WPI - Food Articles |
6.8 |
6.2 |
0.6 |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
19.4 |
17.9 |
1.4 |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
2.8 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.10 IIP - Basic metals |
11.1 |
10.6 |
0.6 |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
2.1 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
60.5 |
53.1 |
7.4 |
B.1.1.1.1.1 WPI - Wheat |
4.2 |
3.7 |
0.4 |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
26.9 |
26.4 |
0.5 |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
3.8 |
2.5 |
1.3 |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
16.7 |
19.3 |
-2.6 |
B.1.1.1.2 WPI - Pulses |
5.0 |
5.2 |
-0.1 |
D.2.3 IIP - Electricity |
12.4 |
11.1 |
1.3 |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
19.0 |
17.3 |
1.7 |
D.3 Cement Production |
26.2 |
24.1 |
2.0 |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
D.4 Steel Production |
11.0 |
10.6 |
0.4 |
B.1.1.4 WPI - Egg, Meat and Fish |
4.3 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
D.5 Coal Production |
57.2 |
54.1 |
3.1 |
B.1.1.4.1 WPI - Egg |
12.2 |
9.2 |
3.0 |
D.6 Crude Oil Production |
10.0 |
10.2 |
-0.2 |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
2.4 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
D.7 Petroleum Refinery Production |
10.6 |
9.5 |
1.1 |
B.1.1.4.3 WPI - Fish |
5.7 |
4.8 |
0.9 |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
27.0 |
26.9 |
0.2 |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
2.8 |
2.4 |
0.4 |
D.9 Natural Gas Production |
10.4 |
11.0 |
-0.5 |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.4 |
2.8 |
-0.4 |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
31.6 |
29.8 |
1.8 |
B.1.2.1 WPI - Fibres |
5.2 |
4.9 |
0.4 |
E.1 Cargo handled at Major Ports |
15.0 |
16.3 |
-1.3 |
B.1.2.1.1 WPI - Raw Cotton |
5.9 |
6.3 |
-0.4 |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
21.6 |
21.4 |
0.1 |
B.1.2.2 WPI - Oil Seeds |
3.8 |
3.9 |
-0.1 |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
26.2 |
24.1 |
2.0 |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
0.3 |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
42.3 |
42.7 |
-0.4 |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
2.0 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
18.6 |
17.4 |
1.1 |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
3.1 |
3.1 |
0.0 |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
20.9 |
21.6 |
-0.7 |
B.2.1.2 WPI - Sugar |
4.3 |
4.8 |
-0.5 |
F.1 Exports |
25.1 |
22.3 |
2.8 |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
1.1 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
F.2 Imports |
12.9 |
15.4 |
-2.5 |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.5 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
F.3 Non-oil Non-Gold Imports |
12.9 |
17.7 |
-4.8 |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
0.9 |
1.5 |
-0.6 |
|
|
|
|
*Average Range of Monthly Seasonal Factors for the last 5-years (2008-09 to 2012-13). |
Table 4: List of Top-Twenty and Bottom-Twenty Series based on Average Range of Monthly Seasonal Factors during Last Five Years |
Top-Twenty Series |
Average Range |
Peak Month |
Trough Month |
Bottom-Twenty Series |
Average Range |
Peak Month |
Trough Month |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
D.2.2.1 IIP - Food products and beverages |
65.3 |
Jan |
Sep |
B.2.1.1 WPI - Grain Mill Products |
3.1 |
Jan |
May |
D.2.2.11 IIP - Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment |
56.0 |
Mar |
Apr |
B.1.1.1.1.2 WPI - Rice |
2.9 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.5 Coal Production |
55.5 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.1.2 WPI - Non-Food Articles |
2.8 |
Apr |
Oct |
E.3 Sales of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
42.2 |
Mar |
Apr |
B.1.1.5 WPI - Protein Items (viz., Pulses, Milk, Egg, Meat and Fish) |
2.6 |
Sep |
Apr |
D.10 Production of Commercial Motor Vehicles |
30.3 |
Mar |
Jun |
B.1.1.1 WPI - Food Grains (Cereals+Pulses) |
2.5 |
Oct |
May |
D.2.1 IIP - Mining |
27.1 |
Mar |
Sep |
C.1 CPI for Industrial Workers (Base: 2001=100) |
2.3 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.8 Fertiliser Production |
27.0 |
Oct |
Apr |
C.2 CPI for Agricultural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.3 |
Nov |
Mar |
D.2.2.12 IIP - Motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers |
26.6 |
Mar |
Jun |
C.3 CPI for Rural Labourers (Base: 1986-87=100) |
2.2 |
Oct |
Mar |
D.1.3.1 IIP - Consumer Non-Durable Goods Industries |
26.5 |
Jan |
Sep |
A.1.1 Broad Money (M3) |
2.0 |
Apr |
Dec |
E.4 Passenger flown (Km) - Domestic |
26.1 |
May |
Sep |
A.2.1 Aggregate Deposits (SCBs) |
2.0 |
Apr |
Dec |
D.3 Cement Production |
24.9 |
Mar |
Aug |
B.1.1.1.1 WPI - Cereals |
1.9 |
Oct |
Apr |
F.1 Exports |
23.0 |
Mar |
Nov |
B.1.1.4.2 WPI - Meat |
1.8 |
Jan |
Apr |
E.6 Freight Tonne Km flown - Domestic |
21.8 |
Oct |
Feb |
A.2.1.2 Time Deposits (SCBs) |
1.6 |
Apr |
Dec |
E.2 Railway Freight Traffic |
21.4 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.2.1 WPI - Food Products |
1.5 |
Sep |
Mar |
A.3.2 Assets with the Banking System (SCBs) |
20.9 |
Mar |
Nov |
B.2.1.3 WPI - Edible Oils |
1.4 |
Aug |
Nov |
D.2.2.9 IIP - Other non-metallic mineral products |
18.5 |
Mar |
Sep |
B.4 WPI - Non Food Non-Fuel |
1.3 |
May |
Dec |
D.2.2.13 IIP - Other transport equipment |
18.4 |
Mar |
Apr |
B. WPI (Base 2004-05=100) All Commodities |
1.3 |
Sep |
Mar |
F.2 Imports |
17.7 |
May |
Feb |
B.1.1.3 WPI - Milk |
1.0 |
Jul |
Mar |
E.5 Passenger flown (Km) - International |
17.6 |
Jan |
Sep |
B.3 WPI - Non Food Manufactured Products |
0.8 |
Apr |
Dec |
B.1.1.2 WPI - Fruits & Vegetables |
17.6 |
Oct |
Feb |
B.2 WPI - Manufactured Products |
0.7 |
May |
Dec |
|
