The Working Group on Money Supply: Analytics and Methodology of Compilation (Chairman: Dr. Y.V. Reddy), set up to examine the analytical aspects of the monetary survey, submitted its report in June 1998. The Working Group recommended the compilation of comprehensive analytical surveys of the Reserve Bank of India, commercial and co-operative banks and the organised financial sector at regular intervals. An inter-departmental Core Group was set up to implement the recommendations of the Working Group.
The Working Group had recommended that the fortnightly returns submitted by scheduled commercial banks under Section 42(2) of the Reserve Bank of India Act should incorporate data on i) capital accounts, ii) the maturity structure of select assets and liabilities, iii) the total resource flow to the commercial sector including investments in capital and money market instruments (non-approved securities) and iv) the net foreign currency assets of the banking sector. Scheduled commercial banks were issued a circular on August 24, 1998 instructing them to file the expanded Section 42(2) returns with effect from the reporting fortnight ended October 9, 1998. In view of the difficulties in obtaining data from major categories of co-operative banks and the time lags in their reporting, the Working Group recommended that data relating to items of liabilities and assets that have a direct bearing for the monetary survey could be collected through a representative sample of major cooperative banks at monthly frequency, followed by a population survey. Critical urban co-operative banks (with deposits of Rs.25 crore and above) and central co-operative banks (with deposits of Rs.50 crore and above) were instructed to file advance returns on selected assets and liabilities as proposed by the Working Group.
The Working Group recommended that the proposed monetary aggregates should be disseminated from fiscal 1999-2000. However, the monetary series presently in vogue would need to be continued for some time for the purpose of comparability. For convenience, the proposed monetary aggregates would be referred to as the new series and the present ones, the old series.
Sectorisation of the Economy for Money Supply Compilation
The present money supply compilation follows the sectorisation of the first Working Group on Money Supply (1961) which divided the economy into three sectors: i) the banking sector, ii) the government sector and iii) the money holding non-government commercial sector com- prising a) the rest of the domestic sector (including public sector undertakings) and b) the foreign sector for the purpose of M3 compilation. The Working Group proposed to divide the domestic economy into four exclusive sectors, viz., i) households, ii) non-financial commercial sector, iii) general government and iv) financial corporations and introduced the concept of residency by carving out a rest of the world (RoW) sector which can transact with any of the domestic sectors. The financial corporations sector would comprise i) the banking sector, consisting of the RBI and the banking system in India and ii) the other financial corporations sector (Chart I).
The Concept of Residency
The Working Group recommended the compilation of monetary aggregates on residency basis in line with the best international practices. Non-resident deposit flows related to balance of payments considerations would not constitute domestic demand for money and are therefore, not to be included in money supply. Accordingly, capital flows in the form of non-resident repatriable foreign currency fixed liabilities with the banking system in India such as the balances under the Foreign Currency Non-Resident Repatriable (Banks) (FCNRB) Scheme and Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs) would not be directly reckoned in money supply.
New Monetary Aggregates
The Working Group recommended compilation of four monetary aggregates on the basis of the balance sheet of the banking sector in conformity with the norms of progressive liquidity: M0(monetary base), M1 (narrow money), M2 and M3 (broad money) (Box I).
Reserve Money (M0)
The definition of reserve money and its components would remain unaltered. On the sources side, however, the RBI's refinance to the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), which was hitherto part of RBI's claims on banks (as it represents on-lending to banks), would be classified as part of RBI credit to commercial sector (as it is an advance to the other financial corporations sector). Further, the Reserve Bank's net non-monetary liabilities would be decomposed into capital account, comprising capital and reserves, and other items (net).
Narrow Money (M1)
There would be no change in the definition of M1.
Box I : New Monetary Aggregates
Weekly Compilation
M0
=
Currency in Circulation + Bankers' Deposits with the RBI + 'Other' Deposits
with the RBI
Fortnightly Compilation
M1
=
Currency with the Public + Demand Deposits with the Banking System
+ 'Other' Deposits with the RBI
=
Currency with the Public + Current Deposits with the Banking System
+ Demand Liabilities Portion of Savings Deposits with the Banking System
+ 'Other' Deposits with the RBI
M2
=
M1 + Time Liabilities Portion of Savings Deposits with the Banking System
+ Certificates of Deposit issued by Banks + Term Deposits of residents with
a contractual maturity of up to and including one year with the Banking
System (excluding CDs)
=
Currency with the Public + Current Deposits with the Banking System
+ Savings Deposits with the Banking System + Certificates of Deposit issued
by Banks + Term Deposits of residents with a contractual maturity up to
and including one year with the Banking System (excluding CDs) + 'Other'
Deposits with the RBI
M3
=
M2 + Term Deposits of residents with a contractual maturity of over one
year with the Banking System + Call/Term borrowings from 'Non-depository'
Financial Corporations by the Banking System
The proposed Intermediate Monetary Aggregate (NM2)
The Working Group proposed a new intermediate monetary aggregate, to be referred to as NM2, comprising currency and residents' short-term bank deposits which would stand in between narrow money (M1) (which includes only the non-interest bearing monetary liabilities of the banking sector) and broad money (M3) (an all encompassing measure that includes long-term time deposits). The recommendation implied the partition of the maturity structure of bank deposits into short-term and long-term time deposits at one year of contractual maturity in order to elicit information about depositors' preferences in holding money in various degrees of liquidity.
Data on the maturity structure of time deposits partitioned at the contractual maturity of one year are not readily available with banks. Collection of such information has required the banks to set up a reporting system for the purpose at the branch-level. The data received are new and would have to be over time subjected to tests of robustness and stability. For the present, therefore, such data had to be estimated based on the reporting by a representative sample of large public sector banks. The proportion of short-term time deposits (with a contractual maturity of up to and including one year) in total time deposits for the sample banks worked out to about 45.0 per cent. Pending the census data, this ratio has been applied to the aggregate time deposits of the banking system to obtain estimates of NM2.
Broad Money (NM3)
The new broad money aggregate (referred to here as NM3 for purpose of clarity) in the Monetary Survey would comprise in addition to NM2, long-term deposits of residents as well as call/ term borrowings from non-bank sources which have emerged as an important source of resource mobilisation for banks. The critical difference between M3 and NM3, essentially, lies in the treatment of non-resident repatriable fixed foreign currency liabilities of the banking system in the money supply compilation. The difference owing to banks' call/term borrowings from non-bank sources is, at present, negligible on reporting Fridays as such liabilities are fully subject to reserve requirements. The divergence between the estimates of M3 and NM3 would, there- fore, essentially depend on the magnitude of the non-resident inflows to the banking system in India. Table I provides data on new monetary aggregates along with the present aggregates for comparison purposes for March-end of the last three years. The difference between the growth rates of M3 and NM3 vary within a range of 0.1 to 1.7 percen- tage points on a point-to-point financial year basis. The difference is more or less the same when monthly data are averaged for the same period, viz., 0.3 to 1.6 percentage points (Table II).
The Working Group classified the liabilities of the banking system in India to others broadly in terms of i) demand liabilities, ii) time liabilities and iii) other demand and time liabilities (ODTL) in line with the existing practice. Of these liabilities, demand and time deposits are included in money supply as the monetary liabilities of the banking sector. The balances under ODTL are essentially non-deposit liabilities, which together with balances under such liabilities as paid-up capital and reserves constitute the net non-monetary liabilities (NNML) of the banking sector. One of the important items appearing under ODTL is the Pension and Provident Funds of the banking system, wherever such funds are not managed by separate entities and, as a result, reflected in the balance sheet of the banks. Pension and Provident Funds are essentially a portfolio of assets created to provide old age and retirement benefits and are, therefore, treated as different from deposits, in line with international practices.
TABLE I : PRESENT AND NEW MONETARY AGGREGATES
(Rupees crore)
March 31
Old Series
New Series
Reserve
M1
M3*
M0=RM
NM1=M1
NM2$
NM3
Money (RM)
1997
1,99,985
2,40,615
7,01,848
1,99,985
2,40,615
4,51,564
6,70,043
1998
2,26,402
2,67,844
8,28,257
2,26,402
2,67,844
4,77,993
7,89,166
1999
2,59,371
3,08,315
9,80,382
2,59,371
3,09,328
5,50,807
9,25,530
Data are provisional.
* Includes banks' pension and provident funds.
$
NM2 data have been estimated for end-March 1998 and 1999 by working out the share of short-term time deposits in total residents' time deposits for select nationalised banks which stood at about 45.0 per cent as at end-March 1999. In case of March 1997, the estimate of the Working Group report has been retained.
#
The difference is owing to different co-operative estimation methods as recommended by the Working Group.
TABLE II: M3 AND NM3 GROWTH RATES
Year
NM3
M3*
(New Series)
(Old Series)
Variation
Absolute
Per cent
Absolute
Per cent
1
2
3
4
5
1993-94
: March-end
64,629
17.7
67,562
18.4
: Monthly Average
15.6
15.9
1994-95
: March-end
90,532
21.2
97,019
22.3
: Monthly Average
18.4
19.8
1995-96
: March-end
61,980
12.0
72,581
13.7
: Monthly Average
14.4
15.7
1996-97
: March-end
89,914
15.5
97,841
16.2
: Monthly Average
15.0
16.3
1997-98
: March-end
1,19,123
17.8
1,26,409
18.0
: Monthly Average
16.6
17.0
1998-99
: March-end
1,36,364
17.3
1,52,125
18.4
: Monthly Average
18.0
19.1
Average
: March-end
16.9
17.8
: Monthly Average
16.3
17.3
Data are provisional.
* Includes Pension and Provident Funds (PF) with banks.
Credit Aggregates
Bank credit to the commercial sector comprises the RBI credit to the commercial sector and the credit from the banking system to the commercial sector. As far as the RBI credit to the commercial sector is concerned, the only change proposed by the Working Group is the inclusion of RBI's loans and advances to NABARD. The banking system's credit to the commercial sector would comprise accommodation in the form of i) loans, cash credit and overdrafts in both rupees as well as in foreign currency, ii) inland and foreign bills purchased and discounted (which together constitute what is commonly known as bank credit), iii) investment in all securities other than government securities and iv) net lending to primary dealers (PDs).
In recent years, banks have been increasingly investing in non-SLR securities with the liberalisation of restrictions on their portfolio management. The Reserve Bank has been publishing data on banks' investments in Commercial Paper (CP), shares, bonds and debentures issued by the public and the private corporate sectors (excluding public financial institutions and mutual funds). The Working Group recommended that banks' 'other investments in securities', i.e., securities not reckoned for the maintenance of statutory liquidity ratio (SLR), such as CP, units of UTI and other mutual funds, and shares/ debentures/bonds of the public and private non-bank sector (including public financial institutions and mutual funds) should be included in bank credit to the commercial sector. Investments in equity and debt paper issued by public financial institutions and mutual funds represent flows to the non-bank other financial corporations sector, (i.e., area D in Chart I), while the investments in similar instruments issued by the public and the private corporate sector (excluding public financial institutions and mutual funds) essentially represent flows to the non-financial commercial sector (i.e., area F in Chart I) (Table III).
Banks' net lending to PDs is presently classified as part of net inter-bank assets as PDs are notified as part of the banking system in India. However, as the Working Group has treated PDs as part of the other financial corporations sector, banks' net lendings to PDs would be part of bank credit to commercial sector.
TABLE III: SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL BANKS' OTHER INVESTMENTS
(Rs. crore)
Instrument
Outstanding as on
March 26, 1999
1
2
I.
Commercial Paper
4,832
II.
Units of Unit Trust of India and
Mutual Funds
3,235
III.
Shares issued by
5,463
III.1
Public Sector Undertakings
1,298
III.2
Private Corporate Sector
3,093
III.3
Public Financial Institutions
1,074
IV.
Bonds/Debentures issued by
57,473
I V .1
Public Sector Undertakings
22,454
I V .2
Private Corporate Sector
15,541
I V .3
Public Financial Institutions
19,477
Total Other Investments
71,004
Memo Item:
Investments in Shares/Bonds/Debentures
of the Public and Private Corporate Sector
42,386
Net Foreign Assets of the Banking Sector
Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking sector comprise the net foreign exchange assets of the Reserve Bank of India and the net foreign currency assets of the banking system in India. The Working Group recommended that the net foreign currency assets of the banking system in India should be computed as the banks' gross foreign currency assets net of their i) overseas foreign currency borrowings and ii) nonresident repatriable foreign currency fixed liabilities with the banking system in India such as, the balances under the Foreign Currency Non-Resident Repatriable (Banks) (FCNRB) Scheme and Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs). The data received from the commercial banks in this regard show that their foreign currency assets are more or less matched by their foreign currency liabilities (adjusted for RIBs which are foreign currency liabilities of the State Bank of India and to the extent of the swapped portion, foreign currency assets of the RBI).
Capital Account
Net non-monetary liabilities (NNML) of the banking sector presently include i) capital and reserves, ii) revaluation on account of price and exchange rate changes, iii) net inter-bank liabilities, iv) other non-deposit sources including call money borrowings from non-bank parties and v) other net liabilities such as, net branch adjustments and other sundry items. The Working Group's proposal to replace the current concept of NNML in the monetary survey, with i) capital accounts comprising capital and reserves and (ii) the balancing item of other items (net) is essentially to be in conformity with the international practices. The sources (assets) side can be functionally depicted by i) domestic credit comprising a) net credit to the government and b) credit to commercial sector, ii) net foreign assets (NFA), iii) government's currency liabilities to the public, iv) capital account and v) other items (net).
The net non-monetary liabilities of other banks (excluding the RBI) have thus far been computed as a residual balancing the sources and components of money stock. Since the Working Group has recommended the inclusion of data on banks' capital and reserves, which comprise the capital account, the only balancing item in the NM3 compilation would be "other items (net)". The link between the old residual item of net non-monetary liabilities of other banks and other items (net) of the banking system in India is shown in Box II.
Based on the above methodology and availability of data from banks, the estimates of the new monetary aggregates - both from the components and sources sides - are presented in Statements I, III and IV. Statement II presents a link series in respect of the NM3 aggregate.
This article is prepared essentially to introduce the new monetary aggregates and to provide the methodology and analytical basis for the new monetary aggregates. Any comments on this article and suggestions for improving the presentational and methodological issues relating to the new monetary aggregates would be welcome.
Box II : Link between the NNML of Other Banks and Other Items (net) of the Banking System
NNML of Other
=
Net Bank Credit to Government + Bank Credit to Commercial
Monetary aggregates as at end-March incorporate data on i) scheduled commercial banks as on the last reporting Friday and ii) the Reserve Bank of India pertaining to the last working day of the fiscal year.
Includes those banks which have reported such data so far.
*
Includes banks' provident and pension funds.
#
figure as reported and that (Rs.9,22,177 crore) derived from the linking formula is on account of the difference in the NM3 changes in co-operative estimation procedures as recommended by the Working Group.
Note:
1.
Data are provisional.
2.
Monetary aggregates as at end-March incorporate data on i) scheduled commercial banks relating to the last reporting Friday and ii) the Reserve Bank relating to the last working day of the fiscal year.