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OBICUS Survey on the Manufacturing sector - Q4:2018-19

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the 45th round of the Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS) for the quarter January-March 2019 covering 843 manufacturing companies. The survey provides a snapshot of demand conditions in India’s manufacturing sector1.

Highlights:

1) Capacity Utilisation (CU): At the aggregate level, CU rose by 0.2 percentage points to 76.1 per cent in Q4:2018-19, co-moving with de-trended manufacturing output in the index of industrial production (IIP) (Chart 1). Seasonally adjusted CU, however, declined by 1.1 percentage points to 74.5 per cent in Q4:2018-19.

Chart_1

2) Order Books: Although fewer new orders were received in Q4:2018-19 relative to the preceding quarter, order books increased on a year on year basis and moved into expansion zone on the back of favourable base effects (Chart 2).

Chart_2

3) Finished Goods Inventory (FGI) to Sales Ratio: A rise in the ratio of FGI to sales essentially reflected a decline in sales (Chart 3).

4) Raw Material Inventory (RMI) to Sales Ratio: The rise in the ratio of RMI to sales was entirely due to contraction in sales (Chart 3).

Chart_3

Historical time series have been made available in excel format.


ANNEX 1: Data Tables

Table 1.1: IIP*-Manufacturing and Capacity Utilisation (CU)
Quarter Number of responding companies Capacity Utilisation IIP-Manufacturing
 (Quarterly Average)
De-trended Quarterly IIP-Manufacturing
Q4:2017-18 921 75.2 134.6 6.4
Q1:2018-19 850 73.8 127.3 -2.1
Q2:2018-19 818 74.8 129.9 -0.7
Q3: 2018-19 860 75.9 132.2 0.3
Q4: 2018-19 802 76.1 135.0 1.9
*: Index of Industrial Production (Base: 2011-12)

Table 1.2: Order Books (Q4:2017-18 to Q4:2018-19)
(Based on common set of 91 companies in 9 quarters)**
Quarter Amount (₹ Billion) Q-o-Q Growth (%)*** Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders
Q4:2017-18 1.570 1.245 1.385 42.7 -29.8 -11.8 62.6 12.7 74.7
Q1:2018-19 1.386 1.836 1.875 -11.7 47.5 35.3 74.6 53.6 118.3
Q2:2018-19 1.874 1.926 2.318 35.2 4.9 23.6 118.4 32.8 110.9
Q3: 2018-19 2.318 1.579 2.337 23.7 -18.0 0.8 110.8 -10.9 48.9
Q4: 2018-19 2.337 1.372 2.012 0.8 -13.1 -13.9 48.9 10.2 45.3
**: As required for calculating growth rates in recent 5 quarters.
***: Not seasonally adjusted

Table 1.3: Average Sales and Inventories (Q4:2017-18 to Q4:2018-19)
(Based on common set of 360 companies in 5 quarters)
Quarter Amount (₹ Billion) Ratio (per cent)
Average Sales Average
Total Inv
Average
FG Inv
Average
WiP Inv
Average RM Inv Total Inv /Sales FG Inv /Sales RM Inv /Sales
Q4:2017-18 9.557 3.918 1.441 0.417 2.061 41.0 15.1 21.6
Q1:2018-19 9.614 4.113 1.354 0.438 2.320 42.8 14.1 24.1
Q2:2018-19 10.170 4.295 1.516 0.476 2.303 42.2 14.9 22.6
Q3: 2018-19 10.364 4.045 1.327 0.450 2.269 39.0 12.8 21.9
Q4: 2018-19 10.200 4.107 1.364 0.473 2.269 40.3 13.4 22.3
RM - Raw Material; WiP - Work in progress; FG - Finished Goods; Inv – Inventory.

1 The survey responses are voluntary. The 44th round of the OBICUS covering 909 manufacturing companies with reference period as October-December 2018 was released on the RBI website on April 04, 2019.

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