Speeches & Media Interactions

Monetary policy announcements are associated with frissons of animated speculation rippling through public discourse. Projections are revised, and the balance of risks are re-tilted. Shadow monetary policy committees take positions in print and in sound bytes. Curve fitting the central bank commences – is it behind the curve? – and accordingly, bird-like postures are conjured to characterise its angle of repose. Markets get poised to reprice, and financial institutions reassess interest margins. Depositors and businesses exert conflicting pulls on public opinion. Questions rent the air on the likelihood of rate movements, by how much, and on shifts in stance.

I am delighted to welcome you all to this ‘High-Level Policy Conference of Central Banks from the Global South’. This conference has been organised as part of the commemoration of the 90th year of the Reserve Bank of India since its establishment in 1935. Since then, the Reserve Bank has established itself as a credible public institution in India. This landmark event provides a unique forum to deliberate on current policy challenges from the vantage point of the Global South. This event is also a part of various conferences and seminars which we have organised this year. These include three international conferences, this being the third one.

Respected Governor, Reserve Bank of India, Deputy Governor Shri M Rajeshwar Rao, Chairmen, MD CEOs, Whole time directors and distinguished members of the Board of Private Sector Banks, colleagues from RBI, ladies, and gentlemen. A very good morning to all of you.

I am happy to be here at the Global Leadership Summit which marks the 25th anniversary of CNBC TV18. I would like to congratulate Team CNBC TV18 for its successful journey over the years. It is indeed an honour for me to join this occasion to felicitate three distinguished former Governors of the Reserve Bank of India – Dr. C. Rangarajan, Dr. Bimal Jalan and Dr. Y.V Reddy.

This year’s Nobel Prize in physics celebrated the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in revolutionising the way we work and live. It is widely believed that AI and robotics will usher in a new wave of secular innovation, much like past breakthroughs in steam power and personal computers. Silently, new technologies are offering a way out of the cross currents of diverging macroeconomic and policy pathways, geopolitical tensions, geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change in which the global economy is transfixed. Accordingly, these technologies are heralding a brighter future, arguably holding the key for many emerging and developing economies to escape the middle-income trap. It is estimated that generative AI itself could increase global GDP by $7-10 trillion over the next three years. Large language models are estimated to increase the productivity levels of workers by 8 to 36 per cent. 

Good morning to you all! In the Indian tradition, Namaskar, which means I salute the divinity in you. It is always fulfilling to be here at the Annual Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Over the years the seminar has become a landmark forum for the intermingling and cross-fertilisation of ideas and experiences among central bankers from all over the world. It is no wonder, therefore, that it has come to be regarded as a favoured stamping ground where practitioners of the profession rub shoulders and learn from each other about the ‘soiling of the hands’ in topically relevant issues in central banking.

1. Distinguished panellists - Prof. Randall S. Kroszner, Professor, University of Chicago and Former Governor, Federal Reserve Board; Ms. Emmanuelle Assouan, Director General, Financial Stability and Operations, Banque de France; Ms. Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Bank of England; Dr. Sajjid Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief Economist India, JP Morgan; esteemed delegates and colleagues from the Reserve Bank. A very good afternoon to all of you.

The Context Over the past three and a half decades since the formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT), it has proliferated across continents, regardless of the position of host jurisdictions in the developmental ladder. By the turn of this century, it has been increasingly embraced by emerging market economies (EMEs) so much so that they now outnumber advanced economies (AEs) as practitioners. A unique feature of IT is its operationalisation even before the development of a formal theory2. The journey of IT has been tumultuous, navigating as it has the Great Moderation and ‘once in a century’ shocks such as the global financial crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and persisting geopolitical conflicts that have had a direct bearing on both inflation’s evolution and on financial conditions. Yet, there is no evidence of any major country abandoning it3. On the other hand, central banks have drawn lessons from these humungous challenges and innovated and refined their policy frameworks. The endogenous evolution of IT has rendered it the longest surviving monetary policy framework in modern times.