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Inflation Expectations Survey of Households: December 2012 (Round 30)

The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households for the October-December 2012 quarter (30th round) captures the inflation expectations of 5,000 urban households across 16 cities, for the next three-month and next one-year period. In addition to 12 cities covered till the 29th round, this round covers four new cities, viz. Nagpur, Thiruvananthapuram, Bhubaneswar and Kolhapur. These expectations are based on their individual consumption baskets and hence these rates should not be considered as predictors of any official measure of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on near-term inflationary pressures and also supplement other economic indicators to get a better indication of future inflation.

Highlights:

  1. Based on data for 12 cities, the three-month ahead median inflation expectation of households increased marginally and one-year ahead median inflation expectation remained at the same level in the December 2012 round as compared with the previous round.

  2. Three-month ahead and one-year ahead inflation expectation based on mean increased marginally for data on 12 cities. Inflation expectation based on 16 cities was generally higher than those based on 12 cities.

  3. The proportion of respondents expecting price rise by ‘more than current rate’ has marginally decreased for three-month ahead as well as one-year ahead period.

  4. The proportion of respondents expecting price increase three-month ahead has diminished for food and non-food products whereas it has gone up for household durables, housing and cost of services.

  5. There was no major variation in the inflation expectations across gender, age- group and occupation category of respondents.

  6. City-wise inflation expectations varied to some extent. While inflation expectation was above 14 per cent in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Jaipur, Nagpur and Kolhapur, it was less than 10 per cent in Kolkata and Guwahati.

  7. On future inflation expectations, 64 per cent (59 per cent in last round) households for three-month ahead and 78 per cent (74 per cent in last round) households for one-year ahead expected double digit inflation.

  8. On the awareness of the RBI action to control inflation and its impact, 49 per cent of the respondents were aware of the role of RBI in controlling inflation; 25 per cent felt that RBI is taking necessary action. Among these 25 per cent, 36 per cent reported that RBI’s action has an impact on controlling inflation.

  9. While 78 per cent of respondents expected that their income/wages would increase in the next one-year, 25 per cent of respondents expected an increase in next three-month period.


Tables

Table 1: Respondents’ Profile (Category): Share in Total Sample

Category of Respondents

Share in Total (%) (12 Cities)

Share in Total (%) (16 cities)

Target Share (%)

Financial Sector Employees

9.2

9.3

10

Other Employees

16.9

16.6

15

Self-employed

21.6

21.6

20

Housewives

29.4

29.1

30

Retired Persons

8.9

9.2

10

Daily Workers

9.2

9.1

10

Others

4.8

5.2

5

Note: The above sample proportion is for the quarter ended December 2012 survey


Table 2: Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three-month ahead and One-year ahead

Round No./Survey period

26

27

28

29

30 (12 cities)

30 (16 cities)

26

27

28

29

30 (12 cities)

30 (16 cities)

(quarter ended) →

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Dec-12

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Dec-12

Options: For General

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

96.1

98.2

99.0

98.9

98.4

98.5

97.1

98.3

99.5

99.1

98.6

98.8

- more than current rate

73.4

75.6

83.6

78.9

73.6

75.7

76.9

78.8

84.4

86.8

82.1

84.7

- similar to current rate

13.2

15.9

11.2

14.5

19.1

17.9

12.6

14.0

10.5

7.6

11.6

10.1

- less than current rate

9.6

6.7

4.2

5.5

5.7

4.9

7.6

5.5

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.1

No change in prices

3.0

1.6

1.0

1.1

1.5

1.4

2.5

1.6

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.1

Decline in price

0.9

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

Options: For food Product

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

95.3

98.2

98.8

98.8

98.6

98.4

96.8

98.2

99.4

99.1

98.6

98.8

- more than current rate

70.4

69.8

80.8

78.6

72.9

74.4

73.7

74.4

82.5

85.7

80.0

82.5

- similar to current rate

16.7

21.2

14.3

15.5

21.1

19.8

15.8

18.6

12.6

9.9

14.7

12.8

- less than current rate

8.2

7.2

3.7

4.7

4.6

4.2

7.4

5.2

4.3

3.5

4.0

3.5

No change in prices

3.4

1.6

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

2.7

1.7

0.5

0.9

1.2

1.1

Decline in price

1.3

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

Options: Non Food Product

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

94.3

97.5

97.8

98.1

96.9

96.7

96.2

98.1

99.3

99.0

98.0

98.1

- more than current rate

66.1

63.7

72.6

70.0

62.1

63.3

67.5

68.5

79.9

80.3

76.2

78.0

- similar to current rate

18.3

24.3

20.3

20.5

25.9

25.3

20.8

22.6

15.2

13.8

17.6

16.0

- less than current rate

9.9

9.5

4.9

7.6

8.9

8.1

8.0

7.0

4.2

4.9

4.2

4.1

No change in prices

4.9

2.4

2.2

1.9

2.9

3.0

3.3

1.9

0.6

1.0

1.9

1.8

Decline in price

0.9

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Options: For Household Durables

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

86.9

90.0

94.3

86.9

90.7

90.2

90.6

91.9

96.3

94.9

96.1

96.2

- more than current rate

53.6

50.7

63.5

49.9

48.5

50.7

54.6

52.4

66.9

60.9

58.9

61.7

- similar to current rate

19.5

25.7

22.4

21.9

29.8

27.8

22.6

25.7

18.8

21.6

25.6

23.8

- less than current rate

13.8

13.6

8.4

15.1

12.5

11.7

13.4

13.8

10.6

12.4

11.6

10.7

No change in prices

10.8

8.5

5.1

11.7

8.9

9.2

7.8

7.0

3.4

4.7

3.6

3.4

Decline in price

2.3

1.5

0.6

1.4

0.4

0.6

1.7

1.2

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.4

Options: For Housing Prices

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

95.5

96.3

96.4

94.9

95.9

96.3

96.1

97.7

98.9

98.4

97.7

98.0

- more than current rate

67.4

70.4

73.0

75.1

69.1

72.8

67.3

73.4

76.9

83.5

75.7

79.5

- similar to current rate

18.2

19.5

18.3

14.8

19.9

17.7

20.6

19.3

16.8

10.7

14.7

12.5

- less than current rate

10.0

6.4

5.1

5.0

6.9

5.7

8.2

5.0

5.2

4.2

7.3

6.0

No change in prices

3.8

3.3

3.2

3.5

4.0

3.6

3.5

2.1

0.9

1.5

2.1

1.8

Decline in price

0.7

0.4

0.5

1.7

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

Options: For Cost of Services

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Prices will increase

91.9

95.8

96.4

93.6

94.6

94.4

93.6

97.1

98.1

97.4

96.4

96.8

- more than current rate

58.7

67.3

73.0

69.1

68.8

68.8

65.3

69.6

74.0

76.5

72.2

73.9

- similar to current rate

21.2

20.3

18.3

17.8

19.0

18.7

18.6

19.8

18.5

14.5

17.7

16.3

- less than current rate

12.1

8.2

5.1

6.7

6.9

6.9

9.8

7.7

5.6

6.5

6.5

6.6

No change in prices

7.4

4.0

3.2

5.9

5.2

5.4

5.9

2.8

2.0

2.5

3.4

3.0

Decline in price

0.7

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2


Table 3: Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three-month ahead and One-year ahead

Round No.

Survey Quarter ended

Food

Non-Food

Households durables

Housing

Cost of services

Three-month ahead period

26

Dec-11

87.9

82.4

67.6

74.4

74.7

27

Mar-12

87.7

82.7

65.4

84.1

83.7

28

Jun-12

90.5

84.5

73.2

82.8

82.6

29

Sep-12

90.9

86.0

60.5

83.3

81.1

30 (12 cities)

Dec-12

89.0

83.1

66.6

83.6

85.8

30 (16 cities)

Dec-12

89.5

82.6

67.2

84.2

83.6

One-year ahead period

26

Dec-11

92.3

84.5

68.0

78.1

81.2

27

Mar-12

91.8

84.0

65.7

83.9

85.9

28

Jun-12

92.5

88.0

77.1

85.1

87.1

29

Sep-12

95.9

90.3

69.5

91.0

87.2

30 (12 cities)

Dec-12

95.1

88.2

73.8

88.5

88.4

30 (16 cities)

Dec-12

95.4

88.2

74.0

89.7

87.2


Table 4: Household Inflation Expectations - Current, Three-month Ahead and One-year Ahead

Survey Round

Survey Quarter Ended

Inflation rate in per cent

Current

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

26

Dec-11

11.9

11.5

3.5

12.4

12.5

3.4

13.3

13.5

3.4

27

Mar-12

11.0

10.5

4.1

11.7

11.5

3.9

12.5

12.5

3.8

28

Jun-12

11.3

10.5

3.9

12.0

11.5

3.7

12.8

12.5

3.4

29

Sep-12

10.6

9.5

3.8

11.5

10.5

3.6

12.7

13.5

3.5

30 (12 cities)

Dec-12

10.9

10.5

3.4

11.7

11.5

3.5

12.8

13.5

3.7

30 (16 cities)

Dec-12

11.0

10.5

3.4

11.9

11.5

3.4

13.3

14.5

3.4


Table 5 A : Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for December 2012 Survey Round (based on 12 cities)

 

Current

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Gender

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Male

10.7

10.5

3.4

11.5

11.5

3.6

12.7

13.5

3.7

Female

11.2

10.5

3.3

12.0

11.5

3.5

12.9

14.5

3.8

Category

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Sector Employees

10.1

9.5

3.3

11.0

10.5

3.4

12.3

12.5

3.5

Other Employees

10.9

10.5

3.2

11.7

11.5

3.4

12.8

13.5

3.5

Self Employed

10.7

10.5

3.6

11.5

11.5

3.9

12.7

13.5

3.9

Housewives

11.3

10.5

3.4

12.0

11.5

3.5

13.0

14.5

3.9

Retired Persons

10.8

10.5

3.2

11.6

11.5

3.3

12.9

13.5

3.4

Daily Workers

11.3

10.5

3.4

11.8

11.5

3.7

12.8

14.5

3.9

Other category

10.7

10.5

3.3

11.5

11.5

3.6

12.8

14.0

3.8

Age-group

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Up to 25 years

10.7

10.5

3.4

11.7

11.5

3.5

13.1

14.5

3.6

25 to 30 years

10.6

9.5

3.2

11.3

11.0

3.4

12.4

12.5

3.5

30 to 35 years

11.0

10.5

3.5

11.7

11.5

3.6

12.6

13.5

4.0

35 to 40 years

11.1

10.5

3.3

11.9

12.5

3.4

12.8

13.5

3.8

40 to 45 years

10.9

10.5

3.5

11.8

11.5

3.7

12.9

14.5

3.8

45 to 50 years

11.1

10.5

3.4

11.9

11.5

3.5

13.0

14.5

3.9

50 to 55 years

10.9

10.5

3.4

11.6

11.5

3.6

12.7

13.5

3.8

55 to 60 years

10.8

10.5

3.3

11.4

11.0

3.6

13.0

14.5

3.6

60 years and above

10.9

10.5

3.5

11.7

11.5

3.6

13.0

14.5

3.7

City

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mumbai

13.7

13.5

1.8

14.8

14.5

1.4

15.8

16.5

0.9

Delhi

11.3

10.5

4.2

12.1

12.5

4.3

13.3

15.0

3.8

Chennai

10.5

10.5

2.0

11.4

11.5

2.0

10.9

11.5

3.6

Kolkata

8.0

7.5

1.5

8.2

8.5

2.3

9.1

9.5

1.9

Bengaluru

14.1

16.5

3.3

14.6

16.5

2.9

15.0

16.5

2.5

Hyderabad

11.9

12.5

1.9

12.4

12.5

2.1

13.1

13.5

2.5

Ahmedabad

8.3

8.5

1.8

10.3

9.5

2.0

14.9

15.5

2.1

Lucknow

11.3

11.5

2.5

12.8

12.5

2.3

14.7

15.0

2.0

Jaipur

14.0

16.5

4.4

14.0

16.5

4.3

15.2

16.5

3.4

Bhopal

8.8

8.5

1.8

9.9

9.5

2.0

12.0

11.5

2.2

Patna

10.9

10.5

2.9

12.5

12.5

2.7

14.6

15.5

2.1

Guwahati

8.1

8.5

0.6

8.3

8.5

1.1

9.6

9.5

1.6

All (12 cities)

10.9

10.5

3.4

11.7

11.5

3,4

13.0

13.5

3.5


Table 5 B :Various Group-wise Inflation Expectations for December 2012 Survey Round (based on 16 cities)

 

Current

Three-month ahead

One-year ahead

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Mean

Median

Std. Dev

Gender

Male

10.8

10.5

3.4

11.8

11.5

3.5

13.1

14.5

3.4

Female

11.3

10.5

3.4

12.2

12.5

3.3

13.5

14.5

3.3

Category

Financial Sector Employees

10.3

9.5

3.4

11.3

11.5

3.4

12.7

13.5

3.3

Other Employees

11.0

10.5

3.3

11.9

11.5

3.4

13.2

14.5

3.3

Self Employed

10.9

10.5

3.6

11.9

11.5

3.7

13.2

14.5

3.6

Housewives

11.3

10.5

3.4

12.2

12.5

3.3

13.5

14.5

3.3

Retired Persons

10.9

10.5

3.3

11.8

11.5

3.3

13.3

14.5

3.2

Daily Workers

11.3

10.5

3.5

12.1

12.5

3.5

13.3

14.5

3.5

Other category

10.8

10.5

3.4

11.8

11.5

3.4

13.3

14.5

3.4

Age-group

Up to 25 years

10.7

10.5

3.4

11.8

11.5

3.4

13.3

14.5

3.4

25 to 30 years

10.7

9.5

3.2

11.6

11.5

3.3

12.9

13.5

3.2

30 to 35 years

11.1

10.5

3.5

12.0

11.5

3.5

13.1

14.5

3.6

35 to 40 years

11.3

10.5

3.5

12.2

12.5

3.4

13.4

14.5

3.4

40 to 45 years

11.1

10.5

3.6

12.1

12.5

3.5

13.3

14.5

3.5

45 to 50 years

11.1

10.5

3.4

12.1

12.5

3.5

13.4

14.5

3.5

50 to 55 years

11.2

10.5

3.5

12.0

12.5

3.4

13.3

14.5

3.2

55 to 60 years

10.8

10.5

3.3

11.7

11.5

3.4

13.4

14.5

3.2

60 years and above

11.1

10.5

3.5

12.0

11.5

3.5

13.5

14.5

3.5

City

Mumbai

13.7

13.5

1.8

14.8

14.5

1.4

15.8

16.5

0.9

Delhi

11.3

10.5

4.2

12.1

12.5

4.3

13.3

15.0

3.8

Chennai

10.5

10.5

2.0

11.4

11.5

2.0

10.9

11.5

3.6

Kolkata

8.0

7.5

1.5

8.2

8.5

2.3

9.1

9.5

1.9

Bengaluru

14.1

16.5

3.3

14.6

16.5

2.9

15.0

16.5

2.5

Hyderabad

11.9

12.5

1.9

12.4

12.5

2.1

13.1

13.5

2.5

Ahmedabad

8.3

8.5

1.8

10.3

9.5

2.0

14.9

15.5

2.1

Lucknow

11.3

11.5

2.5

12.8

12.5

2.3

14.7

15.0

2.0

Jaipur

14.0

16.5

4.4

14.0

16.5

4.3

15.2

16.5

3.4

Bhopal

8.8

8.5

1.8

9.9

9.5

2.0

12.0

11.5

2.2

Patna

10.9

10.5

2.9

12.5

12.5

2.7

14.6

15.5

2.1

Guwahati

8.1

8.5

0.6

8.3

8.5

1.1

9.6

9.5

1.6

Thiruvananthapuram

11.3

11.5

1.5

12.3

12.5

1.9

15.1

15.5

1.8

Bhubaneswar

7.8

7.5

1.8

9.1

9.5

2.6

10.7

10.5

2.3

Nagpur

12.6

11.5

3.2

14.3

14.5

2.2

15.8

16.5

1.2

Kolhapur

14.1

16.5

3.7

15.1

16.5

3.1

15.9

16.5

1.9

All

11.0

10.5

3.4

11.9

11.5

3.4

13.2

14.5

3.4


Table 6 A: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations (12 cities)

(Number of respondents)

 

Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current inflation rate (per cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

1

2

2

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

2

 

1

 

 

 

2

 

12

1-2

 

1

4

1

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

2-3

 

1

1

2

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

3-4

 

 

3

 

4

6

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

4-5

 

1

 

2

3

4

9

2

 

1

1

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

24

5-6

1

 

 

 

8

21

27

16

3

5

1

 

 

2

 

1

2

 

87

6-7

4

 

 

 

1

7

35

42

13

27

6

5

1

 

 

1

2

 

144

7-8

10

 

 

 

1

2

24

201

203

82

31

12

1

1

1

 

6

14

589

8-9

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

10

198

272

31

24

5

1

3

1

8

9

563

9-10

4

 

 

 

 

1

 

5

24

97

193

68

22

12

11

3

2

2

444

10-11

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

8

47

212

74

13

6

3

4

 

372

11-12

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

3

1

1

3

34

146

58

20

2

9

 

279

12-13

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

33

237

70

3

2

 

350

13-14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

33

186

42

2

 

264

14-15

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

25

100

30

 

157

15-16

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

2

13

84

1

105

>=16

4

 

 

1

 

 

1

1

1

 

3

1

4

3

2

6

549

2

578

Total

33

6

10

6

21

43

97

282

444

494

319

358

289

363

326

175

702

28

3996

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and three-month ahead inflations.


Table 6 B: Cross-tabulation of Current and Three-month Ahead Inflation Expectations (16 Cities)

(Number of respondents)

 

Three-month ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current inflation rate (per cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

1

2

2

 

1

 

1

 

 

 

2

 

1

 

 

 

2

 

12

1-2

 

2

5

1

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10

2-3

 

1

4

3

3

1

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13

3-4

 

 

3

 

4

6

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15

4-5

 

1

 

2

5

8

9

5

 

1

1

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

33

5-6

3

 

 

 

8

24

32

19

4

5

1

 

 

2

 

1

2

 

101

6-7

5

 

 

 

1

7

38

62

19

28

6

7

1

 

 

1

2

 

177

7-8

14

 

 

 

1

2

24

212

247

128

52

25

1

1

1

 

6

14

728

8-9

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

10

205

277

66

59

5

1

5

2

8

10

649

9-10

6

 

 

 

 

1

 

5

24

111

214

101

33

15

20

5

5

2

542

10-11

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

8

71

242

113

35

8

6

7

 

495

11-12

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

3

1

1

3

45

178

78

36

13

12

 

372

12-13

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

47

268

89

12

7

 

429

13-14

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

49

191

47

5

 

294

14-15

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

31

111

46

1

191

15-16

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

2

16

114

1

138

>=16

4

 

 

1

 

 

1

1

1

 

3

1

4

3

3

6

771

2

801

Total

44

7

14

7

25

50

106

320

502

560

420

482

385

455

386

220

987

30

5000

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and three-month ahead inflations.


Table 7 A: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations (12 cities)

(Number of respondents)

 

One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current inflation rate (per cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

 

1

 

1

 

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

 

 

6

 

12

1-2

1

 

1

2

 

1

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

8

2-3

 

 

 

1

1

 

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6

3-4

 

 

1

1

 

1

2

4

 

1

2

 

 

1

 

 

1

 

14

4-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

6

2

4

1

1

1

 

5

 

 

24

5-6

2

 

 

 

 

21

3

11

9

8

11

3

3

1

2

2

11

 

87

6-7

1

 

 

 

 

4

37

1

38

9

14

8

3

2

9

5

12

1

144

7-8

3

 

1

 

1

 

11

85

63

167

106

40

16

9

12

26

30

19

589

8-9

9

 

 

 

 

 

3

12

111

72

149

105

11

6

17

14

39

15

563

9-10

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

29

75

22

103

50

30

47

18

56

4

444

10-11

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

44

16

101

40

80

43

33

 

372

11-12

3

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

5

36

8

73

43

55

53

1

279

12-13

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

5

20

26

165

73

53

1

350

13-14

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

2

11

28

148

66

4

264

14-15

3

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

4

11

137

 

157

15-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7

95

3

105

>=16

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

1

1

2

2

559

4

578

Total

52

1

3

6

2

27

64

122

257

342

360

318

217

203

409

409

1152

52

3996

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and one-year ahead inflations.


Table 7 B: Cross-tabulation of Current and One-year Ahead Inflation Expectations (16 Cities)

(Number of respondents)

 

One-year ahead inflation rate (per cent)

Current inflation rate (per cent)

 

<1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-11

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

>=16

No idea

Total

<1

 

1

 

1

   

1

     

1

 

1

1

   

6

 

12

1-2

1

 

2

2

 

1

2

   

1

           

1

 

10

2-3

     

1

2

1

5

2

1

         

1

     

13

3-4

   

1

1

 

1

2

4

 

2

2

   

1

   

1

 

15

4-5

           

3

2

6

4

6

2

1

1

2

6

   

33

5-6

2

       

23

6

15

9

11

12

4

3

1

2

2

11

 

101

6-7

1

       

4

37

3

52

17

18

9

4

5

9

5

12

1

177

7-8

4

 

1

 

1

 

12

94

69

187

147

72

32

19

13

28

30

19

728

8-9

9

         

3

14

120

72

154

115

23

21

22

33

48

15

649

9-10

7

           

3

29

77

22

108

56

40

59

44

93

4

542

10-11

7

               

8

46

21

108

59

90

86

70

 

495

11-12

3

         

1

1

   

5

37

9

84

65

73

93

1

372

12-13

7

           

1

     

5

22

29

181

100

83

1

429

13-14

4

             

1

   

1

2

13

30

159

80

4

294

14-15

3

   

1

                 

1

4

15

167

 

191

15-16

                             

7

127

4

138

>=16

7

                 

2

 

1

1

2

2

782

4

801

Total

55

1

4

6

3

30

72

139

287

379

415

374

262

276

480

560

1604

53

5000

Note: The shaded cells represent the number of respondents who expressed double digit current and one-year ahead inflations.

Table 8 A : Awareness of RBI’s Action on controlling Inflation and their Impact (12 cities)

(Percentage of respondents)

Category

Whether RBI is taking action to control inflation

Yes

No

No Idea

Impact of RBI’s action to control inflation

Yes

No

No Idea

Total

Financial Sector Employees

18.6

19.7

6.3

44.5

18.6

36.9

Other Employees

9.9

17.9

2.1

29.8

25.1

45.1

Self-Employed

7.8

15.2

3.6

26.6

23.9

49.5

Housewives

7.2

9.2

0.8

17.2

23.4

59.4

Retired persons

9.6

18.6

2.5

30.8

25.7

43.5

Daily Workers

5.1

5.4

3.0

13.6

27.9

58.5

Other Categories

8.3

12.0

3.6

24.0

23.4

52.6

All

8.9

13.5

2.6

25.1

24.0

51.0


Table 8 B: Awareness of RBI’s Action on controlling Inflation and their Impact (16 cities)

(Percentage of respondents)

Category

Whether RBI is taking action to control inflation

Yes

No

No Idea

Impact of RBI’s action to control inflation

Yes

No

No Idea

Total

Financial Sector Employees

22.8

19.6

5.4

47.8

19.0

33.2

Other Employees

12.8

16.5

2.7

31.9

26.1

41.9

Self-Employed

12.0

13.8

4.2

30.0

24.5

45.5

Housewives

10.5

8.6

2.1

21.1

23.9

55.0

Retired persons

12.7

17.0

2.6

32.3

26.4

41.3

Daily Workers

9.4

4.6

3.7

17.8

27.6

54.6

Other Categories

13.2

12.0

4.3

29.5

24.4

46.1

All

12.6

12.6

3.2

28.5

24.5

47.0


Table 9 A:  Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level (based on 12 cities)

(Percentage of respondents)

Category of Respondents

Change in income since last year

Change in income in three-month ahead period

Change in income in one-year ahead period

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Financial Sector Employees

71.6

24.6

2.5

34.7

63.4

0.8

89.3

8.7

0.8

Other Employees

66.2

32.4

0.7

23.0

75.9

0.6

83.3

16.0

0.3

Total Employees

68.9

28.5

1.6

28.9

69.7

0.7

86.3

12.3

0.6

Self- Employed

50.6

38.3

10.6

25.3

68.6

5.7

70.8

24.3

4.4

Daily Workers

49.9

41.5

7.1

18.4

77.0

3.0

68.6

28.2

1.6

Total

59.0

35.2

5.8

25.3

71.8

2.9

77.7

20.1

2.2


Table 9 B:  Respondent's Expectation on Change in Wage/Income level (based on 16 cities)

(Percentage of respondents)

Category of Respondents

Change in income since last year

Change in income in three-month ahead period

Change in income in one-year ahead period

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Increase

Same

Decrease

Financial Sector Employees

70.7

25.9

2.4

36.0

62.3

0.9

89.9

8.2

1.1

Other Employees

64.7

33.9

0.8

24.0

75.2

0.5

84.3

15.1

0.2

Total Employees

67.7

29.9

1.6

30.0

68.7

0.7

87.1

11.6

0.7

Self- Employed

50.3

39.0

10.3

26.1

68.2

5.3

71.8

23.6

4.2

Daily Workers

49.3

42.5

6.8

20.0

75.9

2.9

70.6

26.3

1.8

Total

58.1

36.2

5.7

26.2

71.0

2.8

78.7

19.2

2.1


1Prepared in the Division of Household Surveys, Department of Statistics and Information Management. Data relating to the previous survey round were published in November 2012 issue of the RBI Bulletin. The survey results are based on the replies of the respondents and are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank of India.

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