Speeches & Media Interactions

Governor Mr Ahmed Munawar, Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA), Dr Mahamood Shougee, Chancellor of the Maldives National University, Mr Ahmed Imad, Deputy Governor, MMA, other senior colleagues of the MMA, distinguished presenters and panelists and participants, ladies and gentlemen, good morning to all of you.

Monetary policy announcements are associated with frissons of animated speculation rippling through public discourse. Projections are revised, and the balance of risks are re-tilted. Shadow monetary policy committees take positions in print and in sound bytes. Curve fitting the central bank commences – is it behind the curve? – and accordingly, bird-like postures are conjured to characterise its angle of repose. Markets get poised to reprice, and financial institutions reassess interest margins. Depositors and businesses exert conflicting pulls on public opinion. Questions rent the air on the likelihood of rate movements, by how much, and on shifts in stance.

This year’s Nobel Prize in physics celebrated the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in revolutionising the way we work and live. It is widely believed that AI and robotics will usher in a new wave of secular innovation, much like past breakthroughs in steam power and personal computers. Silently, new technologies are offering a way out of the cross currents of diverging macroeconomic and policy pathways, geopolitical tensions, geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change in which the global economy is transfixed. Accordingly, these technologies are heralding a brighter future, arguably holding the key for many emerging and developing economies to escape the middle-income trap. It is estimated that generative AI itself could increase global GDP by $7-10 trillion over the next three years. Large language models are estimated to increase the productivity levels of workers by 8 to 36 per cent. 

Good morning to you all! In the Indian tradition, Namaskar, which means I salute the divinity in you. It is always fulfilling to be here at the Annual Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Over the years the seminar has become a landmark forum for the intermingling and cross-fertilisation of ideas and experiences among central bankers from all over the world. It is no wonder, therefore, that it has come to be regarded as a favoured stamping ground where practitioners of the profession rub shoulders and learn from each other about the ‘soiling of the hands’ in topically relevant issues in central banking.

The Context Over the past three and a half decades since the formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT), it has proliferated across continents, regardless of the position of host jurisdictions in the developmental ladder. By the turn of this century, it has been increasingly embraced by emerging market economies (EMEs) so much so that they now outnumber advanced economies (AEs) as practitioners. A unique feature of IT is its operationalisation even before the development of a formal theory2. The journey of IT has been tumultuous, navigating as it has the Great Moderation and ‘once in a century’ shocks such as the global financial crisis (GFC), the COVID-19 pandemic, and persisting geopolitical conflicts that have had a direct bearing on both inflation’s evolution and on financial conditions. Yet, there is no evidence of any major country abandoning it3. On the other hand, central banks have drawn lessons from these humungous challenges and innovated and refined their policy frameworks. The endogenous evolution of IT has rendered it the longest surviving monetary policy framework in modern times.

Namaskar! Good morning, I am honoured to be here today. This initiative by the CII – the Summit on Financing 3.0 – is perhaps the first of its kind and assumes timely significance in positioning itself as a beacon of light illuminating India’s leap towards its future. At the outset, therefore, I would like to express my deep appreciation of CII’s role in shaping India’s industrial and business landscape since 1895 as arguably the most visible business association in the country today. It is only befitting that I pay tribute to the CII’s extraordinary contributions by dwelling on our ambitions as a nation and the role of finance in actualising them.

Mr. Alejandro Lopez, President, International Association of Deposit Insurance (IADI), Dr. Eva Hupkes, Secretary General, IADI, Mr. M. Rajeshwar Rao, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), distinguished representatives of the IADI and the Asia Pacific Regional Committee (APRC) Secretariat, chief executive officers (CEOs) and officials of deposit insurance agencies, delegates from central banks, eminent speakers and panellists, invitees representing banks in India, and my colleagues from the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), good morning to you all.

Namaskar! Good afternoon I am honoured to be invited to the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration (LBSNAA), a temple of independent India with a rich and hallowed history that predates independence. I thank Madam Sowjanya for her gentle perseverance and deft management of logistics that made it possible for me to be here. I understand that this is the 18^th round of phase IV of the Academy’s mid-career training programme. Participants here have already put in 15 to 18 years in the service of the nation and are, therefore, primed

I am deeply honoured to participate in the 79th meeting of the Executive Council (EXCO) of the International Association of Deposit Insurers (IADI). At the outset, I would like to express my profound appreciation for the IADI as a global standard-setter as well as an international forum for the cross-fertilisation of information and country experiences on practices and techniques relating to deposit insurance. The IADI is contributing significantly to building effective deposit insurance systems across the world, thereby strengthening public confidence in the banking system and ensuring financial stability.

I am honoured to be invited to Nomura’s 40th Central Bankers Seminar. The discussions here assume topical relevance in the context of the tectonic shifts underway in the global economy that present new challenges for the conduct of central banking. Besides divergent growth pathways and the varying speeds and magnitudes of disinflation, regime shifts impart their own layers of uncertainty.

Honourable Governors, Deputy Governors, Managing Directors, delegations from SEACEN central banks, distinguished experts, and panellists, Dr. Mangal Goswami and the SEACEN team, and my colleagues from the Reserve Bank of India.

Introduction Good morning and a warm welcome to all colleagues from central banks representing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

Good Morning to you all! I am delighted to be here again at the prestigious Annual Central Banking Seminar, a flagship event of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for which it has earned global renown. It is truly an honour to interact with central bankers from around the world, our community of tomorrow. You embody the theme of India’s G20 Presidency – Vasudhaivya Kutumbakam: the world is one family. 

The Climate is Striking Back

In my past interactions in this Seminar, I have dwelled on macroeconomic stability; price stability; exchange rate stability; financial stability – all essentially issues centered around the core competence of conservative central bankers from which we are reluctant to stray. After all, central banks stand for stability.

Good afternoon and Namaskar. Thank you Alfred for those insightful opening remarks. I must mention that Alfred led the IMF’s Article IV India mission for the 2021 consultations. The sheer weight of that experience and deep understanding of Indian conditions is reflected in his views. I would also like to commend Alfred and his co-editors for a comprehensive evaluation of India’s financial system and very valuable recommendations on the way forward in a recent book evocatively titled “India’s Financial System: Building the Foundation for Strong and Sustainable Growth”.

I am glad to see Mr Thomas Helbling from the Asia and Pacific Department of the IMF in this session, and I look forward to hearing from him.

I thank our host and SEACEN EXCO Chair, the National Bank of Cambodia, the SEACEN Centre and Dr. Mangal Goswami, Executive Director, and the BIS for inviting me to speak in this distinguished forum. In particular, I am grateful to Deputy Governor Sum Sannisith for so graciously writing to me to participate in this 16th SEACEN-BIS High Level Seminar.

The Backdrop

It is widely believed that during the next two decades – if not for longer – the centre of gravity of the global economy will shift eastwards to Asia. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific indicates that this region will contribute about two-thirds of global growth in 2023 itself. India will account for a sixth of world output growth in 2023 and 2024. In terms of market exchange rates, India is the fifth largest economy of the world and the third largest economy on the basis of purchasing power parity. Our assessment is that by 2027, India will be a US$ 5 trillion economy and the third largest in the world even by market exchange rates. A key driver in this transformation is likely to be the window of a demographic dividend that opened up in 2018 and will probably last till the 2040s, going by fertility and mortality rates. Already, we are the most populous country in the world at 1.4 billion and the youngest at an average age of 28 years. The other major catalyst of India’s progress will be the pace and quality of financial sector development, which is the theme of my address today. It is anchored by a few slides.

I. Introduction Good evening! I welcome you all to the sixth Asia KLEMS Conference, to India and to the Reserve Bank of India, henceforth RBI. We are honoured to host this conference in physical mode after the arduous isolation imposed by the pandemic. The hill town of Lonavala, an ancient resting place for travellers and traders, is nestled in India’s soon-to-be monsoon-drenched western ghats – a chain of mountains running 30 to 50 km inland parallel to India’s west

I thank you all for your very valuable participation in this seminar, the third in the series that we began in May 2016. In this context, I want to thank our team in the Financial Markets Regulation Department for making this Seminar happen with physical interactions after a long gap. Given my abiding interest in financial markets, I am particularly grateful to our team for ensuring that I don’t miss this opportunity to be with treasury heads and financial market expe