RBI Bulletin - February 2023 - ஆர்பிஐ - Reserve Bank of India
RBI Bulletin - February 2023
Today, the Reserve Bank released the February 2023 issue of its monthly Bulletin. The Bulletin includes Monetary Policy Statement February 6-8, 2023, one speech, six articles and current statistics. The six articles are: I. State of the Economy; II. A Recalibrated Quarterly Projection Model (QPM 2.0) for India; III. Union Budget 2023-24 - An Assessment; IV. ESG Disclosures and Performances: Cross-Country Evidence; V. Bankers’ Sentiments on Credit Demand – Post Pandemic Recovery; and VI. The Long Shadow of Federal Reserve’s Actions: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Spillovers to India. I. State of the Economy The year 2023 will probably be characterised by a milder global slowdown than earlier anticipated but the trajectory remains unpredictable. In India, domestic consumption and investment stand to benefit from stronger prospects for agricultural and allied activities, strengthening business and consumer confidence, and strong credit growth. Supply responses and cost conditions are poised to improve even though inflation witnessed a rebound in January. The Union Budget 2023-24’s emphasis on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment, strengthen job creation and demand, and raise India’s potential growth. II. A Recalibrated Quarterly Projection Model (QPM 2.0) for India By Joice John, Deepak Kumar, Asish Thomas George, Pratik Mitra, Muneesh Kapur and Michael Debabrata Patra This article presents the details of the updated quarterly projection model for India. The article revisits the model structure and coefficients with more India-centric characteristics to enrich its performance and relevance. It generates medium-term projections of inflation and growth, and undertakes policy analysis consistent with achieving targets/mandate set under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework. The revised and updated model is dubbed as QPM 2.0. This project was carried out under UTKARSH 2022, the medium-term strategy of the RBI. Highlights:
III. Union Budget 2023-24 - An Assessment By Saksham Sood, Ipsita Padhi, Anoop K. Suresh, Bichitrananda Seth and Samir Ranjan Behera This article presents an assessment of the Union Budget 2023-24. The Budget envisages capex as the key lever of growth while committing to credible fiscal consolidation for strengthening macro-stability. Highlights:
IV. ESG Disclosures and Performances: Cross-Country Evidence By Saurabh Ghosh and Siddhartha Nath Policy makers across the globe are increasingly paying attention to the integration of “Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)” principles into their regulatory frameworks. In the post-COVID era, credible disclosure has become a pre-requisite for integrated risk management framework. In this context, this article looks at the resilience of ESG leaders using cross-country MSCI-ESG Leaders’ Indices vis-à-vis broader market indices since 2010. Highlights:
V. Bankers’ Sentiments on Credit Demand – Post Pandemic Recovery By Haridwar Yadav and Supriya Majumdar The Bank Lending Surveys (BLS) are used by major central banks to capture perceptions of banks on credit conditions and their outlook for the near term across major sectors which act as a lead indicator. This article looks at the evolution of sentiments of the scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India during the pandemic as captured through the quarterly BLS. It also looks at how expectations reacted to economic recovery and credit demand, based on outlook indicators incorporated in the survey. Highlights:
VI. The Long Shadow of Federal Reserve’s Actions: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty Spillovers to India By Bhanu Pratap and Thangzason Sonna Cross-border transmission of economic shocks arising from changes in the macroeconomic policy stance in major advanced economies has emerged as a key challenge for emerging market economies in today’s world with complex trade and financial linkages. This article analyses the impact of monetary policy actions of the US Federal Reserve on the Indian economy over the last two decades. Highlights:
The views expressed in the Bulletin articles are of the authors and do not represent the views of the Reserve Bank of India. (Yogesh Dayal) Press Release: 2022-2023/1741 |