Contents - ఆర్బిఐ - Reserve Bank of India
83724751
ప్రచురించబడిన తేదీ ఫిబ్రవరి 26, 2021
Contents
Chapter I: Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) in India | |
1 | Introduction |
2 | Initial Conditions |
3 | Preconditions |
4 | Experience with FIT |
5 | Conclusion |
Chapter II: The Goals of Monetary Policy | |
1 | Introduction |
2 | Country Experience |
3 | The Inflation Target |
4 | The Tolerance Band |
5 | Other Features of India’s Inflation Process |
6 | The Objective of Growth |
7 | Conclusion |
Chapter III: Monetary Policy Decision Making Process | |
1 | Introduction |
2 | Experience with the MPC: Voting Patterns (2016-2020) |
3 | Evaluation of the Projection Performance, Communication and Transparency |
4 | What Works for India’s MPC |
5 | What Needs to Change |
6 | Conclusion |
Chapter IV: Operating Procedure of Monetary Policy | |
1 | Introduction |
2 | Some Stylised Facts |
3 | Fine-tuning the Operating Procedure and Transmission Channels |
4 | Conclusion |
Chapter V: Open Economy Flexible Inflation Targeting | |
1 | Introduction |
2 | Openness: Some Stylised Facts |
3 | Exchange Rate Dynamics and FIT |
4 | Open Economy Taylor Rule |
5 | Conclusion |
LIST OF BOXES | |
Sr. No. | Particulars |
I.1 | Insights from Country Framework Reviews |
I.2 | Evolution of Ideas on Inflation Targeting in India |
II.1 | Trend Inflation in India |
II.2 | Estimates of Threshold Inflation for India |
II.3 | Stabilisation of Inflation Expectations during FIT in India |
III.1 | Monetary Policy Process of the Monetary Policy Committee |
III.2 | Inflation and Growth Projection Process |
III.3 | Transmission of Food and Fuel Shocks to Core Inflation |
IV.1 | Liquidity Management Framework |
IV.2 | Volatility of WACR – Key Determinants |
IV.3 | Policy Transmission to the Operating Target |
IV.4 | Transmission to other Markets |
IV.5 | Impediments to Monetary Policy Transmission during FIT |
V.1 | Drivers of INR Volatility |
V.2 | Sensitivity of INR to Risk Premia |
V.3 | Sterilisation Effectiveness during FIT |
V.4 | Exchange Rate Pass-Through during FIT |
V.5 | Open Economy Taylor Rule Estimates for India |
LIST OF TABLES | |
Sr. No. | Particulars |
I.1 | Monetary Policy Reaction Function (2000-01 to 2010-11) |
I.2 | Transition to FIT in India |
I.3 | Headline Inflation – Key Summary Statistics |
I.4 | CPI-C Inflation Components, Agricultural Growth and International Crude Oil Prices – Level and Volatility |
I.5 | Core and Non-Core Inflation Dynamics |
I.6 | Key Macroeconomic Indicators under FIT – Level and Volatility |
I.7 | Monetary Policy Reaction Function (First MPC’s Tenure) |
II.1 | Inflation Target and Tolerance Band for EMEs |
II.2 | Trend Inflation Estimates of India |
II.3 | Threshold Inflation Estimates of India |
II.4 | Performance of Different Food Sub-Groups during Pre and Post - FIT |
II.5 | Accuracy, Unbiasedness, Efficiency and Autocorrelation of Inflation Forecasts over Forecast Horizons |
II.6 | Estimates of Inflation Persistence |
II.7 | Correlation between Inflation Expectations (IE) and Actual Inflation |
II.8 | Average GDP Growth and Related Indicators |
III.1 | Voting Records of the MPC Members on the Policy Rate |
III.2 | Voting Records of the MPC members on Monetary Policy Stance |
III.3 | The MPC Voting Summary (October 2016-March 2020) |
III.4 | EG index for RBI Pre-FIT and FIT |
III.5 | Structure of Monetary Policy Decision Making Committees |
III.6 | MPC Decision Making Process |
III.7 | Monetary Policy Transparency and Communication across Central Banks |
III.8 | Accountability Mechanism |
III.9 | Shut Period Practices: Major Central Banks |
III.10 | Tenure of Committees for Monetary Policy Decision Making |
III.11 | Contents of the Communication Policy Document |
III.12 | Timing of Policy Announcement |
III.13 | Central Banks Providing Guidance on Policy Rate Path |
III.14 | Definition of Failure |
III.15 | Episodes of High Food Price Inflation |
III.16 | Episodes of Low Food Price Inflation |
IV.1 | Reforms in the Operating Framework |
IV.2 | Share in Overnight Money Market Volume |
IV.3 | Operating Target and Monetary Marksmanship |
IV.4 | Liquidity Management Instruments |
IV.5 | Fine-Tuning Operations |
IV.6 | Key Liquidity Indicators (period averages) |
IV.7 | Policy Rate Changes |
IV.8 | Policy Transmission to Financial Market Segments |
IV.9 | Transmission from Repo Rate to Banks' Deposit and Lending Interest Rates |
IV.10 | Transmission across Bank Groups -Tightening and Easing Policy Cycles |
IV.11 | Market Timings |
IV.12 | Proportion of Loans linked to Internal and External Benchmarks |
V.1 | India's External Vulnerability Indicators |
V.2 | Episodes of Excess Capital Inflows |
V.3 | Reserve Money and Drivers of Durable Liquidity |
V.4 | ERPT Estimates from Select Studies in the Indian Context |
LIST OF CHARTS | |
Sr. No. | Particulars |
I.1 | Key Policy Rates in Select Economies |
I.2 | Global Commodity Prices, Domestic Inflation and GDP Growth |
I.3 | Inflation and Growth – India vs. Global |
I.4 | Liquidity, Asset Prices and Inflation |
I.5 | Growth in IIP: Old and Revised Series |
I.6 | WPI Inflation, CPI Inflation and Inflation Expectations |
I.7 | Historical Decomposition of WPI Non-food Non-fuel Inflation |
I.8 | Policy Rate, CRR and SLR |
I.9 | Estimated Policy Rates (with WPI and CPI) |
I.10 | Implications of Delayed Policy Response (Difference between response with delay and without delay) |
I.11 | WPI and GDP Deflator |
I.12 | Return on Assets and Household Savings |
I.13 | GFD, Public Investment, CAD and Gold Import |
I.14 | Movement in Exchange Rate and Forex Reserves |
I.15 | Repo Rate, MSF Rate and WACR |
I.16 | Scenarios – Transitory and Persistent Food Price Shocks |
I.17 | Headline Inflation vis-à-vis Glide Path/Inflation Target |
I.18 | Central Government Gross Fiscal Deficit |
I.19 | QPM – Feedback Mechanism and Transmission |
I.20 | Kernel Density of CPI Headline and Sub-groups Inflation |
I.21 | Domestic CPI and Global Commodity Price Inflation |
I.22 | Domestic CPI Core and Global Non-food Commodity Price Inflation |
I.23 | Relative Food Prices |
I.24 | State-wise Inflation Differential and its Kernel Density Function |
I.25 | CPI Inflation: Rural vs. Urban |
I.26 | Trend GDP Growth and Saving-Investment Rates |
I.27 | Growth in Bank Deposit, Money and Credit |
I.28 | Employment and Capital Stock and their Contributions to GVA |
I.29 | Labour Force Participation and Labour Productivity in India |
I.30 | Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) |
I.31 | Demographic Developments |
I.32 | External Drag on Growth |
I.33 | Movement in Headline Inflation |
I.34 | Degree of Disagreement in MPC Voting Pattern |
I.35 | Contribution of Inflation Gap and Output Gap to Policy Rate Deviations |
II.1 | Inflation Targets in IT countries |
II.2 | Evolution of Inflation Targets |
II.3 | Changes in Inflation Target and Tolerance Band |
II.4 | Reformulation of Inflation Target |
II.5 | Estimates of Trend Inflation |
II.6 | Structural Breaks in CPI Inflation |
II.7 | Distribution of Major Components of CPI Inflation in India |
II.8 | Contribution to Headline Inflation |
II.9 | Contribution to Volatility in Headline Inflation |
II.10 | High Volatility and Asymmetric Pass-through of Fuel Prices |
II.11 | Supply Shocks and their Impact on Inflation |
II.12 | Distribution of Cyclical Component of Inflation |
II.13 | Inflation Trend, Persistence and Volatility |
II.14 | Inflation Expectations in select EMEs |
II.15 | Inflation Expectations in select Advanced Economies (AEs) |
II.16 | Inflation Perception of Households Vs. Actual Inflation |
II.17 | Inflation Expectations: Households vis-à-vis Other Agents |
II.18 | CPI Inflation and Inflation Expectations during pre- and post-FIT Period |
II.19 | Output-gap and Real Policy Rate |
II.20 | Passive Tolerance of Inflation (Shock: One Percentage points) |
III.1 | Share of Inflation and Growth Discussions in the MPC Members' Statements |
III.2 | Word Clouds across Monetary Policy Stances, October 2016 - March 2020 |
III.3 | Distribution of Inflation and Growth Word Count across the MPC Policy Stances |
III.4 | Policy Meetings and the MPC Dissent Votes |
III.5 | Actual versus Projected Inflation during FIT |
III.6 | Inflation Projection Errors during FIT across Projection Horizons |
III.7 | Revision in GDP Growth |
III.8 | Actual versus Projected GDP Growth during FIT |
III.9 | GDP Growth Projection Errors across Projection Horizons |
III.10 | EG Transparency Index of Central Banks |
III.11 | 1-Month and 3-Month OIS Rate: Pre-FIT and FIT |
III.12 | Repo Rate: SPF Projections versus Actuals |
III.13 | Media Sentiment One Day Prior to Policy Day |
IV.1 | Corridor Marksmanship |
IV.2 | Corridor Width and WACR Volatility |
IV.3 | Evolution of Corridor Width |
IV.4 | Reserve Maintenance |
IV.5 | Estimated Volatility (IGARCH) of WACR |
IV.6 | WACR vis-a-vis the Policy Corridor |
IV.7 | Cost of Deposit/Funds and Policy Repo Rate |
V.1 | India's Openness Indicators |
V.2 | Net Capital Flows to EMEs |
V.3 | India's Foregn Trade during FIT |
V.4 | Volatility in Capital Flows in India |
V.5 | Exchange Rate Volatility |
V.6 | Differential in Short-term Interest Rates (India-US) and INR Exchange Rate |
V.7 | Interest Rate Differentials and Forward Premia on USD/INR |
V.8 | Share of Foreign Currency Assets in Total Assets |
V.9 | Movement in MCI |
Annex | |
Sr. No. | Particulars |
II.1 | Threshold Inflation Estimates for India in Empirical Literature |
II.2 | Optimal Inflation in a Macroeconomic Framework |
II.3 | Supply Shocks and the Lower Tolerance Band |
II.4 | Objectives of Monetary Policy for the Inflation Targeting Countries |
II.5 | Structural Reforms during Inflation Targeting Regime |
III.1 | Monetary Policy Committee - Statutory Provisions on Processes |
III.2 | The MPC Voting Patterns (October 2016-March 2020) |
III.3 | Central Bank Transparency Index |
III.4 | Model MPC Communication Document |
IV.1 | Monetary Policy Operating Frameworks - Key Features |
IV.2 | Lags in Transmission to Output and Prices: A Cross-country Evidence |
IV.3 | Benchmark for Interest Rates on Loans |
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