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OBICUS Survey on the Manufacturing sector - Q4:2017-18

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of the 41st round of the Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey (OBICUS) for the quarter January-March 2018 covering 1,061 manufacturing companies. The survey provides a snapshot of demand conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector1.

Highlights:

1) Capacity Utilisation (CU): At the aggregate level, CU recorded a seasonal pickup to 75.2 per cent in Q4:2017-182; the de-trended index of industrial production3 (IIP) rose sharply. (Chart 1)

2) Order Books: The buoyancy in new orders (as observed in year-on-year growth) moderated in Q4:2017-18. (Chart 2)

3) Finished Goods Inventory (FGI) to Sales Ratio: With robust growth in sales, the FGI to sales ratio declined from the level seen in the previous quarter (Chart 3).

4) Raw Material Inventory (RMI) to Sales Ratio: Producers seem to have stocked up on raw materials leaving the RMI to Sales unchanged (Chart 3).

Historical time series have been made available in excel format.


ANNEX 1: Data Tables

Table 1.1: IIP*-Manufacturing and Capacity Utilisation (CU)
Quarter Number of responding companies Capacity Utilisation IIP-Manufacturing
(Quarterly Average)
De-trended Quarterly
IIP-Manufacturing
Q4:2016-17 724 74.6 125.2 1.9
Q1:2017-18 805 71.2 121.1 -3.4
Q2:2017-18 756 71.8 123.0 -2.7
Q3:2017-18 940 74.1 127.8 0.9
Q4:2017-18 921 75.2 134.2 6.1
*: Index of Industrial Production (Base: 2011-12)

Table 1.2: Order Books (Q4:2016-17 to Q4:2017-18)
(Based on common set of 120 companies in 9 quarters)**
Quarter Amount (₹ Billion) Q-o-Q Growth (%)*** Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders Average Backlog Orders Average New Order Book Average Pending Orders
Q4:2016-17 1.191 1.204 1.043 -2.1 17.2 -12.5 -20.7 30.2 -16.0
Q1:2017-18 1.042 1.259 1.129 -12.5 4.5 8.3 -16.3 16.0 -10.7
Q2:2017-18 1.128 1.567 1.453 8.3 24.5 28.7 -10.6 56.6 19.6
Q3:2017-18 1.453 1.799 1.894 28.7 14.8 30.4 19.5 75.2 58.8
Q4:2017-18 1.923 1.300 1.695 32.3 -27.8 -10.5 61.5 8.0 62.6
**: As required for calculating growth rates in recent 5 quarters.
***: Not seasonally adjusted

Table 1.3: Average Sales and Inventories (Q4:2016-17 to Q4:2017-18)
(Based on common set of 289 companies in 5 quarters)
Quarter Amount (₹ Billion) Ratio (per cent)
Average Sales Average Total Inv Average FG Inv Average WiP Inv Average RM Inv Total Inv /Sales FG Inv /Sales RM Inv /Sales
Q4:2016-17 8.899 3.852 1.262 0.432 2.158 43.3 14.2 24.2
Q1:2017-18 7.997 3.631 1.331 0.426 1.873 45.4 16.6 23.4
Q2:2017-18 8.160 3.677 1.319 0.428 1.930 45.1 16.2 23.7
Q3:2017-18 8.608 3.891 1.389 0.456 2.047 45.2 16.1 23.8
Q4:2017-18 9.453 4.138 1.416 0.476 2.247 43.8 15.0 23.8
RM - Raw Material; WiP - Work in progress; FG - Finished Goods; Inv – Inventory.

1 The survey responses are voluntary and difference in sample composition may affect the results to some extent. The 40th round of the OBICUS covering 940 manufacturing companies with reference period as October-December 2017 was released on the RBI website on April 05, 2018.

2 Seasonally adjusted CU at 73.0 per cent in Q4:2017-18 was lower by 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous quarter.

3 IIP is calculated on a fixed base (currently 2011-12=100) whereas the denominator (viz. installed capacity) in CU is updated every quarter. For comparison, the trend component of IIP is removed.

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