Preliminary data on India’s balance of payments (BoP) for the second quarter (Q2), i.e., July-September 2013, of the financial year 2013-14, are now available and presented in Statements I and II. While Statement I presents BoP data in BPM6 format, Statement II provides the same as per the old format. Developments in India’s BoP during July-September 2013
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India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed sharply to US$ 5.2 billion (1.2 per cent of GDP) in Q2 of 2013-14 from US$ 21.0 billion (5.0 per cent of GDP in Q2 of 2012-13), also much lower than 4.9 per cent of GDP in Q1 of 2013-14. The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports moderated, particularly gold imports.
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On a BoP basis, merchandise exports increased by 11.9 per cent to US$ 81.2 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 on the back of significant growth especially in the exports of ‘textile and textile products’, ‘leather & leather products’ and chemicals.
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On the other hand, merchandise imports at US$ 114.5 billion, recorded a decline of 4.8 per cent in Q2 of 2013-14 as compared with a decline of 3.0 per cent in Q2 of 2012-13, primarily led by a steep decline in gold imports,which amounted to US$ 3.9 billion as compared to US$ 16.4 billion in Q1 of 2013-14 and US$ 11.1 billion in Q2 of 2012-13.
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As a result, the merchandise trade deficit (BoP basis) contracted to US$ 33.3 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 from US$ 47.8 billion a year ago.
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Net invisibles during Q2 of 2013-14 improved, essentially reflecting a rise in net services exports. Net services at US$ 18.4 billion recorded a growth of 12.5 per cent in Q2 of 2013-14 (y-o-y) mainly on account of ‘computer services’.
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Net outflow on account of primary income (profit, dividend and interest) amounting to US$ 6.3 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 was higher than that in the preceding quarter (US$ 4.8 billion) as well as the corresponding quarter (US$ 5.6 billion) of 2012-13. Gross transfers receipts at US$ 17.3 billion showed an increase of 2.6 per cent (y-o-y).
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While foreign direct investment recorded net inflows of US$ 6.9 billion in Q2 of 2013-14, net portfolio investment registered an outflow of US$ 6.6 billionin the wake of indication given by US Federal Reserve about the tapering of its quantitative easing programme.There was a marginal net outflow of US$ 0.8 billion under equities while the debt component of net FII flows recorded a higher outflow of US$ 5.7 billion.
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‘Loans’(net) availed by deposit taking corporations (commercial banks)witnessed an outflow of US$ 6.7 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 owing to repayments of overseas borrowings and a build-up of their overseas foreign currency assets. Under ‘currency & deposits’, net inflows of NRI deposits amounted to US$ 8.3 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 as compared to US$ 2.8 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2012-13. Loans (net) availed by others (ECBs) at US$1.3 billion, however, showed an increase of 8.8 per cent over the same quarter of the preceding year. Trade credits and advances recorded a decline mainly on account of higher repayments.
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On a BoP basis, there was a drawdown of foreign exchange reserves of US$ 10.4 billion in Q2 of 2013-14 as compared to that of US$ 0.2 billion in Q2 of 2012-13 (Table 1).
Developments in India’s BoP during April-September 2013
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The turnaround in export growth and decline in imports from July 2013 onwards led to a sharp improvement in the trade deficit to US$ 83.8 billion in H1 of 2013-14 from US$ 91.6 billion in H1 of 2012-13.
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Contraction in the trade deficit coupled with a rise in net invisibles receipts resulted in a reduction of the CAD to US$ 26.9 billion (3.1 per cent of GDP) in H1 of 2013-14 from US$ 37.9 billion (4.5 per cent of GDP) in H1 of 2012-13.
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Net inflows under the capital and financial account (excluding change in foreign exchange reserves) declined to US$ 15.1 billion in H1 of 2013-14 from US$ 37.0 billion in H1 of 2012-13 owing to net outflows of portfolio investment.
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Notwithstanding a lower CAD during H1 of 2013-14, there was a drawdown of foreign exchange reserve to the tune of US$ 10.7 billion as against an accretion of US$ 0.4 billion in H1 of 2012-13 mainly due to a decline in net capital inflows under the financial account.
Table 1: Major Items of India's Balance of Payments |
(US$ Billion) |
|
Jul - Sep 2013
(P) |
Jul - Sep 2012 (PR) |
Apr-Sep 2013
(P) |
Apr-Sep 2012
(PR) |
| |
Credit |
Debit |
Net |
Credit |
Debit |
Net |
Credit |
Debit |
Net |
Credit |
Debit |
Net |
A Current Account |
138.3 |
143.5 |
-5.2 |
127.3 |
148.3 |
-21.0 |
269.3 |
296.2 |
-26.9 |
257.7 |
295.6 |
-37.9 |
1. Goods |
81.2 |
114.5 |
-33.3 |
72.6 |
120.4 |
-47.8 |
155.2 |
238.9 |
-83.8 |
147.6 |
239.2 |
-91.6 |
Of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POL |
17.9 |
41.0 |
-23.1 |
14.2 |
40.7 |
-26.4 |
32.0 |
83.0 |
-51.0 |
27.5 |
80.0 |
-52.5 |
2.Services |
36.7 |
18.3 |
18.4 |
35.0 |
18.7 |
16.3 |
73.2 |
37.9 |
35.2 |
70.8 |
39.5 |
31.3 |
3. Primary Income |
3.1 |
9.4 |
-6.3 |
2.8 |
8.4 |
-5.6 |
5.6 |
16.8 |
-11.2 |
5.0 |
15.4 |
-10.5 |
4. Secondary Income |
17.3 |
1.2 |
16.1 |
16.9 |
0.8 |
16.1 |
35.3 |
2.6 |
32.8 |
34.4 |
1.5 |
32.9 |
B. Capital Account and Financial Account |
130.7 |
125.8 |
5.0 |
109.9 |
89.1 |
20.8 |
265.7 |
239.9 |
25.8 |
219.4 |
182.8 |
36.6 |
Of which: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in Reserve (Increase (-)/Decrease (+)) |
10.4 |
|
10.4 |
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
10.7 |
|
10.7 |
|
0.4 |
-0.4 |
C. Errors & Omissions |
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
0.2 |
|
|
1.1 |
|
|
1.3 |
(-)(A+B) |
P: Preliminary; PR: Partially Revised. |
Note: Total of sub-components may not tally with aggregate due to rounding off. |
Alpana Killawala
Principal Chief General Manager Press Release : 2013-2014/1112 |
