Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 28th round of its quarterly Bank Lending Survey[1], which captures qualitative assessment and expectations of major scheduled commercial banks on credit parameters (viz., loan demand as well as terms and conditions of loans) for major economic sectors[2]. The latest round of the survey, which was conducted during Q1:2024-25, collected senior loan officers’ assessment of credit parameters for Q1:2024-25 and their expectations for Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2024-25.
Highlights:
A. Assessment for Q1:2024-25
- Bankers’ growth assessment of loan demand recorded a seasonal moderation across major sectors during Q1:2024-25 (Chart 1 and Table 1).
- Respondents reported continuation of easy loan terms and conditions for major sectors, except mining; relative prudence was also reported for retail/personal loans and agricultural credit (Table 2).
B. Expectations for Q2:2024-25
- Bankers remained optimistic on loan demand across major sectors barring mining and quarrying (Table 1).
- Overall, easy loan terms and conditions are expected to prevail during the quarter; lower optimism is, however, reported for the retail/ personal loans (Table 2).
C. Expectations for Q3 and Q4 of 2024-25
- Bankers remain upbeat on loan demand across major sectors for the subsequent quarters of the financial year 2024-25 (Table 3).
- Easy loan terms and conditions are expected to continue in the second half of 2023-24, except for the mining sector; the infrastructure sector loans are perceived to witness relatively less softer loan terms.
Table 1: Sector-wise Loan Demand - Net Response[3]
|
(per cent)
|
Sector
|
Assessment Period
|
Expectations Period
|
Q4:2023-24
|
Q1:2024-25
|
Q1:2024-25
|
Q2:2024-25
|
All Sectors
|
44.2
|
36.5
|
42.3
|
38.5
|
Agriculture
|
35.0
|
28.3
|
31.7
|
36.7
|
Mining and Quarrying
|
13.3
|
1.7
|
6.7
|
1.7
|
Manufacturing
|
41.4
|
36.2
|
34.5
|
34.5
|
Infrastructure
|
35.0
|
15.0
|
26.7
|
30.0
|
Services
|
42.9
|
41.1
|
35.7
|
33.9
|
Retail/Personal
|
48.0
|
34.0
|
34.0
|
44.0
|
Table 2: Sector-wise Loan Terms and Conditions - Net Response
|
(per cent)
|
Sector
|
Assessment Period
|
Expectations Period
|
Q4:2023-24
|
Q1:2024-25
|
Q1:2024-25
|
Q2:2024-25
|
All Sectors
|
14.8
|
16.7
|
18.5
|
16.7
|
Agriculture
|
15.5
|
13.3
|
17.2
|
16.7
|
Mining and Quarrying
|
-5.2
|
-1.8
|
-3.4
|
1.8
|
Manufacturing
|
15.0
|
22.4
|
13.3
|
22.4
|
Infrastructure
|
10.0
|
10.3
|
13.3
|
13.8
|
Services
|
14.3
|
21.4
|
16.1
|
21.4
|
Retail/Personal
|
16.7
|
15.2
|
16.7
|
10.9
|
Table 3: Sector-wise Expectations for Extended Period - Net Response
|
(per cent)
|
Sector
|
Loan Demand
|
Loan Terms and Conditions
|
Q3:2024-25
|
Q4:2024-25
|
Q3:2024-25
|
Q4:2024-25
|
All Sectors
|
44.4
|
46.3
|
22.2
|
20.4
|
Agriculture
|
36.7
|
40.0
|
16.7
|
18.3
|
Mining and Quarrying
|
10.3
|
12.1
|
-1.7
|
-1.7
|
Manufacturing
|
43.3
|
48.3
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
Infrastructure
|
34.5
|
36.2
|
12.1
|
10.3
|
Services
|
44.6
|
48.2
|
19.0
|
19.0
|
Retail/Personal
|
48.2
|
55.4
|
23.2
|
19.6
|
Note: Please see the attached excel file for detailed time series data.
[1] The results of 27th round of the BLS with reference period as January-March 2024 were released on the RBI website on April 05, 2024. The survey results reflect the views of the respondents, which are not necessarily shared by the Reserve Bank.
[2] The survey questionnaire is canvassed among major 30 SCBs, which together account for over 90 per cent of credit by SCBs in India.
[3] Net Response (NR) is computed as the difference of percentage of banks reporting increase/optimism and those reporting decrease/pessimism in respective parameter. The weights of +1.0, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1.0 are assigned for computing NR from aggregate per cent responses on 5-point scale, i.e., substantial increase/ considerable easing, moderate increase/ somewhat easing, no change, moderate decrease/ somewhat tightening, substantial decrease/ considerable tightening for loan demand/loan terms and conditions parameters respectively. NR ranges between -100 to 100. Any value greater than zero indicates expansion/optimism and any value less than zero indicates contraction/pessimism. Increase in loan demand is considered optimism (Tables 1), while for loan terms and conditions, a positive value of net response indicates easy terms and conditions (Table 2).
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