Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 01 How Asset Prices Interact with Bank Credit and Monetary Policy? Evidence from Emerging Market and Developing Economies @Bhupal Singh and Avadhoot R. Nadkarni Abstract *The central hypothesis examined in this paper is whether credit shocks are more dominant in affecting asset prices vis-a-vis monetary policy shocks. The paper examines interaction of equity and house prices with macroeconomic factors using a panel VAR fra

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 10 Modelling Corporate Sector Distress in India @Manjusha Senapati and Saptarshi Ghosal Abstract 1The paper attempts to formulate a model to predict corporate financial distress of non-government non-financial public limited companies and estimate distressed bank debt due to the sample companies for the period 2006-07 to 2013-14. The model estimates probability of a company being financially distressed in the following year u

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 09 Bank Lending and Loan Quality: The Case of India@Pallavi Chavan and Leonardo Gambacorta Abstract *This paper analyses how non-performing loans (NPLs) of Indian banks behave through the cycle. We find that a one-percentage point increase in loan growth is associated with an increase in NPLs over total advances (NPL ratio) of 4.3 per cent in the long run with the response being higher during expansionary phases. Furthermore,

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 08 Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties @Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish Thomas George, Pranav Gupta, Joice John, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Rafael Portillo, Hou Wang and Fan Zhang Abstract 1This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward looking open economy gap model, calibrated to re

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 07 Inflation-Forecast Targeting For India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework @Jaromir Benes, Kevin Clinton, Asish Thomas George, Joice John, Ondra Kamenik, Douglas Laxton, Pratik Mitra, G.V. Nadhanael, Hou Wang and Fan Zhang Abstract 1India formally adopted flexible-inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of the monetary poli

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 06 Measurement of Central Bank Output– Methodological Issues for India @P. Bhuyan Abstract The paper deliberates on methodological issues relating to the measurement of central bank output in Indian context. CSO classified RBI output as non-market in the new series of GDP with 2011-12 as base due to non-availability of disaggregated account for RBI services. Cost approach as per SNA 2008 was adopted to measure the output of R

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 05 India’s Potential Output Revisited @Barendra Kumar Bhoi and Harendra Kumar Behera Abstract *Estimates of potential output have been revised downward across countries in the post-crisis period. In India, the debate on potential GDP and output gap has been intensified due to revision in the GDP estimates with change in base year and its underlying methodology consistent with international best practices. In view of these, an

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 4Rules of the Monetary Game @Prachi Mishra and Raghuram Rajan March 2016 Abstract Aggressive monetary policy actions by one country can lead to significant adverse cross-border spillovers on others, especially as countries contend with the zero lower bound. If countries do not internalize these spillovers, they may undertake policies that are collectively suboptimal. Perhaps instead, countries could agree to guidelines for r

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 03 Global Spillovers and Monetary Policy Transmission in India @Michael Debabrata Patra, Sitikantha Pattanaik, Joice John and Harendra Kumar Behera Abstract Do global spillovers clog transmission channels of monetary policy through domestic financial markets? Drawing on stylised facts and using a dynamic factor model to develop an indicator of global spillovers (IGS), a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR)

Press Release RBI Working Paper Series No. 02 Implications of MGNREGS on Labour Market, Wages and Consumption Expenditure in Kerala@V. Dhanya Abstract 1This paper makes an attempt to evaluate the implications of MGNREGS in labour short economy of Kerala. The analysis of NSSO unit level data revealed inter-state differences in implementation of the scheme with North-Eastern and Southern states performing better than its counterparts. The primary data analysis showed th