I am delighted to participate in this symposium on Indian Economy organised by the Institute of Indian Economic Studies (IIES), Tokyo. I understand this event is being organised by the IIES after a gap of 3 years due to the intervening period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Earlier this year in March 2023, Prof. Sakakibara and Mr. Sugaya had visited the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai when we discussed about my participation in this symposium.  I would like to convey my sincere thanks and gratitude to Prof. Sakakibara and the IIES for inviting me to participate in this event today.

I am delighted to be here with all of you to celebrate the Diamond Jubilee Year of the Delhi School of Economics (DSE). The Delhi School has made a distinct mark as an institution of excellence and very high reputation, both in India and abroad. The list of eminent economists and distinguished alumni associated with the DSE is long and impressive. The School has inspired generations of students to excel in diverse streams such as academia, research, government and corporate sectors. In the Reserve Bank of India, we have also benefitted immensely from the DSE, with a continuous stream of students joining the RBI. It is a matter of pride for me to be part of this momentous year in the history of the institute which has contributed immensely to the policy discourse in India.

2. Today, I have chosen to speak on “Art of Monetary Policy Making: The Indian Context”. As you would be aware, India formally adopted the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework in 2016, in broad alignment with global trends. The underlying principle of this framework is that a clearly articulated, legislatively mandated numerical inflation target is the best foundation for overall macroeconomic stability. Low and stable inflation helps households and businesses in planning for long-term savings and investments which ultimately drive innovation, productivity and sustainable growth. On the contrary, high and volatile inflation corrodes the economy by denting productivity and the long-term growth potential. Inflation also imposes disproportionate burden on the poor.

3. I have structured my talk in the following sequence: (i) evolution of monetary policy in India, culminating in the adoption of flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework; (ii) key elements of this framework, including the forecasting process; (iii) conduct of monetary policy under the FIT regime; and (iv) monetary policy challenges at the current juncture.

Evolution of Monetary Policy Since Independence

4. During the 1950s and 1960s, as the country embarked upon planned economic development, monetary policy assumed a developmental role of meeting the credit needs of the economy as identified under the five-year plans. Bank nationalisation in 1969 ushered in the era of social banking and led to the credit planning phase (1969-85). This period witnessed widespread use of non-market instruments such as directed credit, administered interest rates and moral suasion.

5. Monetary policy during the 1970s and 1980s was constrained by fiscal dominance, automatic monetisation of budget deficits and excessive growth of monetary aggregates. The large scale deficit financing and the resultant high monetary and credit expansion led to inflationary pressures which were further exacerbated by a series of shocks, namely, the Indo-Pak war of 1971, the drought of 1973, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, and global oil price shocks of 1973 and 1979. These events precipitated the adoption of “monetary targeting with feedback” as a formal monetary policy framework in 1985.