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110355807

मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण

आज, रिज़र्व बैंक ने जुलाई 2024 के अपने द्विमासिक मुद्रास्फीति पर घरेलू अपेक्षाओं का सर्वेक्षण (आईईएसएच)1 2 के परिणाम जारी किए हैं। यह सर्वेक्षण 2-11 जुलाई, 2024 के दौरान 19 प्रमुख शहरों में आयोजित किया गया था, जिसमें 6,091 शहरी परिवारों की प्रतिक्रियाएँ शामिल थी। इस दौर के सर्वेक्षण में महिला उत्तरदाताओं की हिस्सेदारी 51.9 प्रतिशत रही है।

मुख्य विशेषताएँ:

  1. नवीनतम सर्वेक्षण दौर में परिवारों की वर्तमान मुद्रास्फीति की औसत धारणा 20 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) बढ़कर 8.2 प्रतिशत हो गई; आगामी तीन महीने और एक वर्ष दोनों अवधियों के लिए भी मुद्रास्फीति पर उनकी अपेक्षाएँ 20 आधार अंक (बीपीएस) बढ़ी हैं [चार्ट 1ए और 1बी; टेबल 3]।

  2. परिवारों का बड़ा हिस्सा मई 2024 सर्वेक्षण दौर की तुलना में अधिक सामान्य कीमतें और मुद्रास्फीति की अपेक्षा रखता है [टेबल 1 (ए) और 1 (बी)]।

  3. प्रमुख उत्पाद समूहों में कीमत और मुद्रास्फीति में मामूली रूप से दबाव दर्ज किए गए [टेबल 1 (ए) और 1 (बी)]।

  4. एक वर्ष आगे की अवधि के लिए, मुद्रास्फीति पर अपेक्षाएँ खाद्य कीमतों, आवास और सेवाओं की लागत के साथ निकटता से संरेखित हैं [टेबल 4]।

Chart 1a and 1b

 नोट: कृपया समय क्षृंखला डेटा के लिए एक्सेल फ़ाइल देखें3

Table 1(a): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for Three Months ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 80.8 0.86 78.2 0.84 76.5 0.85 80.6 0.81 82.3 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 55.3 1.20 54.4 1.09 53.1 1.08 59.1 1.13 60.5 1.13
Price increase similar to current rate 21.8 0.93 19.5 0.80 18.2 0.79 17.5 0.83 17.3 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 3.6 0.39 4.2 0.43 5.2 0.44 4.0 0.43 4.5 0.48
No changes in prices 16.1 0.79 18.3 0.79 19.6 0.80 16.6 0.77 14.6 0.71
Decline in prices 3.1 0.41 3.6 0.37 3.9 0.38 2.8 0.32 3.1 0.37
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.0 0.77 80.2 0.77 76.7 0.81 81.8 0.74 84.2 0.70
Price increase more than current rate 63.5 1.04 59.3 1.00 54.4 1.00 61.0 1.07 62.1 1.03
Price increase similar to current rate 15.5 0.72 15.6 0.72 15.7 0.69 15.3 0.74 16.0 0.75
Price increase less than current rate 5.0 0.44 5.4 0.45 6.6 0.50 5.5 0.46 6.1 0.52
No changes in prices 9.0 0.60 12.3 0.65 15.1 0.68 12.1 0.64 10.2 0.57
Decline in prices 7.0 0.54 7.5 0.51 8.2 0.54 6.1 0.46 5.6 0.47
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 75.5 0.92 74.0 0.85 71.5 0.87 75.0 0.85 77.0 0.81
Price increase more than current rate 52.2 1.16 52.3 1.03 48.9 1.01 53.7 1.11 54.5 1.10
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.80 16.4 0.71 16.2 0.71 15.6 0.72 16.2 0.79
Price increase less than current rate 4.9 0.43 5.2 0.45 6.4 0.48 5.7 0.50 6.2 0.52
No changes in prices 18.3 0.80 18.6 0.76 20.9 0.80 19.3 0.78 17.6 0.74
Decline in prices 6.2 0.54 7.4 0.52 7.7 0.51 5.7 0.43 5.4 0.48
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 65.8 0.97 65.5 0.93 64.7 0.92 68.2 0.94 68.2 0.97
Price increase more than current rate 45.3 1.12 46.3 1.04 43.8 1.01 48.3 1.10 49.6 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 15.8 0.75 14.5 0.65 15.5 0.70 15.2 0.74 13.9 0.73
Price increase less than current rate 4.6 0.41 4.7 0.42 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.44 4.7 0.44
No changes in prices 25.0 0.88 25.2 0.85 26.1 0.85 23.4 0.86 23.4 0.88
Decline in prices 9.2 0.60 9.4 0.57 9.2 0.57 8.5 0.53 8.4 0.58
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 76.8 0.94 78.4 0.83 76.9 0.83 80.4 0.81 78.6 0.84
Price increase more than current rate 56.0 1.14 58.2 1.05 55.8 1.07 59.3 1.06 59.6 1.07
Price increase similar to current rate 17.0 0.75 16.1 0.72 16.4 0.74 16.7 0.77 14.8 0.78
Price increase less than current rate 3.7 0.35 4.0 0.41 4.7 0.40 4.3 0.44 4.1 0.45
No changes in prices 20.2 0.88 18.1 0.79 19.6 0.78 16.7 0.77 18.2 0.78
Decline in prices 3.0 0.37 3.6 0.34 3.5 0.36 3.0 0.34 3.2 0.37
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 67.7 0.97 65.0 0.93 65.0 0.97 68.6 0.98 71.0 0.95
Price increase more than current rate 47.3 1.13 46.1 1.02 45.5 1.09 49.2 1.12 52.7 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 15.9 0.72 15.0 0.69 14.4 0.70 14.4 0.68 13.6 0.70
Price increase less than current rate 4.5 0.40 3.8 0.37 5.2 0.45 5.0 0.46 4.6 0.46
No changes in prices 28.2 0.90 30.5 0.91 30.1 0.92 27.3 0.94 25.3 0.90
Decline in prices 4.1 0.43 4.5 0.41 4.8 0.43 4.1 0.39 3.7 0.38
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
 
Table 1(b): Product-wise Expectations of Prices for One Year ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Jul-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24
General Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Prices will increase 88.6 0.68 88.7 0.63 87.4 0.67 89.1 0.64 90.6 0.60
Price increase more than current rate 65.0 1.07 66.3 1.06 64.7 1.08 67.9 1.14 68.6 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 20.5 0.86 19.1 0.83 18.5 0.83 17.8 0.90 18.3 0.86
Price increase less than current rate 3.1 0.33 3.3 0.36 4.2 0.41 3.5 0.41 3.7 0.43
No changes in prices 8.6 0.57 8.2 0.55 9.7 0.59 7.9 0.56 6.6 0.50
Decline in prices 2.8 0.35 3.0 0.36 2.9 0.35 3.0 0.34 2.9 0.35
Food Product                    
Prices will increase 84.7 0.75 86.4 0.68 84.5 0.73 86.0 0.68 87.1 0.65
Price increase more than current rate 60.6 1.11 63.6 1.03 59.5 1.10 62.8 1.10 63.5 1.09
Price increase similar to current rate 20.1 0.85 18.2 0.77 19.8 0.80 18.3 0.86 19.0 0.84
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.38 4.7 0.43 5.2 0.45 4.9 0.49 4.6 0.48
No changes in prices 9.3 0.59 8.7 0.53 10.1 0.61 9.3 0.58 7.9 0.52
Decline in prices 6.0 0.48 4.9 0.43 5.4 0.44 4.7 0.39 5.0 0.43
Non- Food Product                    
Prices will increase 81.6 0.85 82.0 0.80 81.1 0.76 82.1 0.79 82.9 0.77
Price increase more than current rate 57.1 1.16 59.1 1.11 56.3 1.09 59.8 1.13 61.2 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 20.6 0.83 18.6 0.79 19.5 0.82 17.3 0.80 16.9 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.9 0.38 4.4 0.41 5.3 0.47 5.1 0.47 4.8 0.46
No changes in prices 13.5 0.72 13.1 0.66 14.1 0.69 12.9 0.68 12.4 0.64
Decline in prices 4.8 0.48 4.8 0.45 4.8 0.44 5.0 0.44 4.7 0.44
Household Durables                    
Prices will increase 75.8 0.88 74.8 0.84 74.5 0.83 76.8 0.83 77.4 0.83
Price increase more than current rate 53.2 1.10 54.0 1.06 52.3 1.06 56.0 1.12 56.6 1.12
Price increase similar to current rate 18.4 0.80 16.7 0.69 17.3 0.76 16.4 0.79 16.1 0.76
Price increase less than current rate 4.2 0.38 4.1 0.41 5.0 0.45 4.4 0.44 4.8 0.49
No changes in prices 17.7 0.76 18.3 0.75 18.1 0.76 16.6 0.72 16.3 0.73
Decline in prices 6.5 0.48 6.9 0.49 7.4 0.51 6.6 0.47 6.3 0.48
Cost of Housing                    
Prices will increase 86.8 0.69 88.0 0.65 87.2 0.66 89.2 0.64 88.2 0.66
Price increase more than current rate 64.6 1.05 67.7 0.96 65.6 1.01 68.7 1.02 66.6 1.05
Price increase similar to current rate 18.5 0.79 16.7 0.74 17.2 0.74 16.3 0.75 17.7 0.80
Price increase less than current rate 3.8 0.37 3.6 0.40 4.4 0.39 4.2 0.45 3.9 0.43
No changes in prices 10.4 0.60 9.1 0.55 9.5 0.57 8.4 0.57 8.6 0.55
Decline in prices 2.7 0.34 2.9 0.34 3.3 0.36 2.4 0.31 3.2 0.36
Cost of Services                    
Prices will increase 80.9 0.80 79.5 0.78 80.1 0.78 82.1 0.77 83.4 0.76
Price increase more than current rate 57.3 1.12 58.8 1.03 56.3 1.08 58.9 1.13 61.6 1.17
Price increase similar to current rate 19.6 0.83 16.6 0.72 18.9 0.78 18.6 0.83 17.4 0.82
Price increase less than current rate 4.0 0.39 4.1 0.40 4.9 0.45 4.6 0.44 4.4 0.45
No changes in prices 15.5 0.72 17.0 0.72 16.0 0.71 14.7 0.71 13.2 0.67
Decline in prices 3.5 0.37 3.5 0.37 3.9 0.38 3.2 0.34 3.4 0.39
Note:
1. The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for qualitative responses.
2. Constituent items may not add up to the corresponding total, due to rounding off.
 
Table 2: Inflation Expectations of Various Groups: Jul-24
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Overall 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Gender-wise                        
Male 9.1 0.13 8.5 0.18 10.0 0.13 9.7 0.33 10.0 0.15 10.2 0.14
Female 8.8 0.12 8.2 0.17 9.8 0.13 9.4 0.30 9.8 0.16 10.1 0.12
Category-wise                        
Financial Sector Employees 9.5 0.53 8.5 0.82 10.4 0.57 9.9 0.73 10.6 0.64 10.5 0.57
Other Employees 8.9 0.19 8.1 0.25 9.8 0.20 9.4 0.40 9.7 0.23 10.0 0.26
Self Employed 9.2 0.19 8.8 0.33 10.2 0.20 10.1 0.25 10.3 0.23 10.5 0.15
Homemaker 8.9 0.15 8.2 0.20 9.9 0.16 9.5 0.35 9.9 0.19 10.2 0.13
Retired Persons 9.9 0.36 9.1 0.68 10.8 0.33 10.4 0.35 10.6 0.42 10.6 0.78
Daily Workers 9.1 0.24 8.9 0.52 10.0 0.27 9.7 0.45 9.6 0.32 9.8 0.46
Other category 8.0 0.20 6.9 0.22 8.9 0.23 8.0 0.24 9.0 0.27 8.5 0.32
Age Group-wise                        
Up to 25 years 7.9 0.16 7.2 0.19 9.0 0.17 8.4 0.19 9.2 0.20 9.2 0.32
25 to 30 years 8.6 0.19 7.9 0.21 9.6 0.20 9.0 0.36 9.7 0.23 9.9 0.28
30 to 35 years 8.9 0.19 8.4 0.24 10.0 0.21 9.7 0.33 10.1 0.24 10.2 0.19
35 to 40 years 8.9 0.19 8.2 0.28 9.7 0.20 9.1 0.38 9.6 0.24 9.8 0.40
40 to 45 years 9.0 0.21 8.8 0.48 10.0 0.24 10.0 0.34 9.9 0.29 10.3 0.23
45 to 50 years 9.3 0.23 8.8 0.34 10.2 0.25 10.1 0.26 10.0 0.29 10.3 0.18
50 to 55 years 9.3 0.27 9.0 0.64 10.3 0.28 10.1 0.38 9.9 0.34 10.4 0.25
55 to 60 years 9.8 0.34 9.6 0.54 10.6 0.34 10.4 0.26 10.4 0.41 10.6 0.31
60 years and above 9.6 0.27 9.3 0.63 10.6 0.28 10.2 0.30 10.3 0.34 10.4 0.27
City-wise                        
Ahmedabad 7.5 0.31 6.7 0.36 8.5 0.37 7.6 0.32 8.3 0.47 8.1 0.54
Bengaluru 7.2 0.19 6.0 0.20 8.8 0.21 7.9 0.26 9.3 0.25 8.9 0.50
Bhopal 9.0 0.43 8.6 1.09 9.8 0.47 9.6 0.82 8.9 0.54 9.0 0.86
Bhubaneswar 9.2 0.71 8.6 1.53 10.7 0.91 10.5 1.70 10.3 1.02 11.0 1.85
Chennai 9.3 0.37 9.8 0.44 10.3 0.50 10.8 0.66 10.9 0.61 12.0 0.99
Delhi 9.2 0.22 8.6 0.40 10.0 0.24 9.8 0.52 10.0 0.28 10.0 0.42
Guwahati 9.3 0.55 10.0 0.77 9.7 0.65 10.0 0.68 9.8 0.60 10.1 0.84
Hyderabad 7.8 0.28 6.9 0.31 8.8 0.31 8.0 0.29 9.0 0.34 9.1 0.43
Jaipur 7.4 0.47 7.2 0.57 8.2 0.52 7.6 0.69 7.9 0.68 7.7 0.85
Jammu 11.1 0.85 10.1 1.12 9.2 0.82 9.0 1.17 9.4 0.58 9.6 0.88
Kolkata 10.8 0.38 10.4 0.22 11.7 0.37 11.6 0.82 11.5 0.38 12.0 1.04
Lucknow 9.2 0.47 8.3 0.83 9.9 0.47 9.3 0.73 9.7 0.47 9.4 0.71
Mumbai 9.5 0.23 8.6 0.22 10.4 0.21 10.1 0.22 10.0 0.28 10.5 0.16
Nagpur 8.5 0.43 8.0 0.56 9.9 0.51 9.5 0.54 9.8 0.75 10.3 0.52
Patna 7.8 0.52 7.5 0.71 8.6 0.74 8.4 0.74 8.2 0.80 8.4 0.98
Thiruvananthapuram 7.4 0.52 6.9 0.94 8.4 0.65 7.3 1.08 10.3 0.52 10.1 0.64
Chandigarh 10.9 0.60 9.7 0.53 11.7 0.59 10.8 0.85 11.4 0.76 11.0 0.87
Ranchi 8.9 0.38 8.4 0.36 9.3 0.45 8.9 0.52 9.1 0.74 9.4 0.84
Raipur 10.3 0.49 9.8 0.52 11.1 0.60 10.5 0.90 11.2 0.57 10.9 0.78
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
 
Table 3: Household Inflation Expectations – Current Perception, Three Months and One Year Ahead Expectations
  Current Perception Three Months ahead Expectation One Year ahead Expectation
Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median
Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE Estimate SE
Jul-23 9.3 0.09 8.9 0.14 10.2 0.09 10.0 0.15 10.0 0.11 10.3 0.07
Jan-24 8.8 0.09 8.1 0.12 9.7 0.09 9.2 0.17 9.6 0.10 10.0 0.13
Mar-24 8.7 0.09 8.1 0.13 9.6 0.09 9.0 0.16 9.5 0.10 9.8 0.19
May-24 8.7 0.10 8.0 0.13 9.8 0.10 9.2 0.19 9.6 0.12 9.9 0.19
Jul-24 8.9 0.09 8.2 0.12 9.8 0.10 9.4 0.24 9.8 0.11 10.1 0.09
Note: The table provides estimates and standard errors (SE) for quantitative responses.
 
Table 4: Households Expecting General Price Movements in Coherence with Movements in Price Expectations of Various Product Groups: Three Months Ahead and One Year Ahead
(Percentage of Respondents)
Survey period ended Food Non-Food Households durables Housing Cost of services
Three Months Ahead
Jul-23 63.1 65.5 60.9 64.5 65.7
Jan-24 65.2 65.4 60.8 64.2 65.8
Mar-24 65.4 66.1 61.2 64.6 66.8
May-24 67.4 67.2 63.2 67.2 68.0
Jul-24 66.3 66.2 61.7 66.3 68.4
One Year Ahead
Jul-23 73.4 73.0 66.9 73.4 73.6
Jan-24 76.5 74.1 67.9 74.9 74.6
Mar-24 74.6 73.6 68.3 75.0 74.2
May-24 76.1 74.5 69.5 76.8 75.0
Jul-24 76.3 74.6 69.6 77.1 76.2
 
Table 5(a): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and Three Months Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-24
Three Months Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 2 25 17 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2-<3 0 9 95 66 27 6 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 210
3-<4 0 2 13 90 62 62 14 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 247
4-<5 0 0 9 10 146 75 66 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 324
5-<6 0 2 12 33 40 442 194 161 80 13 87 2 1 0 0 3 2 0 1072
6-<7 0 0 1 3 6 12 189 145 82 23 18 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 482
7-<8 0 0 1 2 2 18 8 199 144 68 60 8 12 1 0 3 0 0 526
8-<9 0 0 1 1 1 10 12 7 199 85 144 24 19 4 0 5 1 0 513
9-<10 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 4 75 89 49 26 5 3 4 13 0 273
10-<11 0 0 4 4 3 22 6 10 16 7 411 55 206 64 15 238 85 1 1147
11-<12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 16 14 40 3 1 2 0 77
12-<13 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 3 0 32 18 16 24 10 0 109
13-<14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 6 38 7 1 0 54
14-<15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 6 0 13
15-<16 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 4 1 3 2 2 61 125 0 201
>=16 0 1 7 1 2 14 0 2 1 0 22 0 0 1 0 29 703 0 783
Total 6 43 163 218 291 666 491 539 533 276 842 157 315 141 81 376 951 2 6091
 
Table 5(b): Cross-tabulation of Number of Respondents by Current Inflation Perception and One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations: Jul-24
One Year Ahead Inflation Rate (per cent)
Current Inflation Rate (per cent)   <1 1-<2 2-<3 3-<4 4-<5 5-<6 6-<7 7-<8 8-<9 9-<10 10-<11 11-<12 12-<13 13-<14 14-<15 15-<16 >=16 No idea Total
<1 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1-<2 8 15 15 9 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2-<3 30 1 44 54 50 17 5 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 210
3-<4 23 0 8 43 47 60 38 13 8 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 247
4-<5 46 0 3 6 62 59 73 25 33 6 9 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 324
5-<6 117 0 4 8 19 237 145 181 105 32 194 3 5 0 1 11 9 1 1072
6-<7 52 0 0 0 3 6 90 109 107 32 58 4 18 0 1 1 1 0 482
7-<8 53 1 0 1 1 4 4 87 108 72 130 20 26 1 6 9 3 0 526
8-<9 46 0 0 0 0 7 3 3 106 68 157 22 58 8 5 21 9 0 513
9-<10 10 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 3 47 67 43 43 22 8 11 15 0 273
10-<11 98 1 0 0 1 12 0 5 10 6 220 36 161 55 27 292 218 5 1147
11-<12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 23 29 4 5 0 77
12-<13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 20 10 23 31 19 0 109
13-<14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 8 32 7 3 0 54
14-<15 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 13
15-<16 13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 3 1 1 40 138 0 201
>=16 68 2 5 1 1 6 1 1 1 0 18 0 1 1 1 19 655 2 783
Total 576 22 80 124 186 409 363 430 482 265 871 134 344 129 135 446 1087 8 6091

1 यह सर्वेक्षण भारतीय रिज़र्व बैंक के द्वारा द्विमाही अंतरालों पर संचालित किया जाता है; यह निकट भविष्य में मुद्रास्फीतिकारी दबावों पर उत्तरदाताओं से प्राप्त निदेशात्मक जानकारी प्रदान करता है और उनकी स्वयं की खपत प्रवृत्ति को प्रतिबिंबित करता है। सर्वेक्षण के परिणाम उत्तरदाताओं के विचारों को दर्शाते हैं, जो जरूरी नहीं कि रिज़र्व बैंक द्वारा मान्यता प्राप्त हों।

2 मुद्रास्फीति प्रत्याशाओं के सभी अनुमान मीडियन के रूप में दिए गए हैं, जब तक अन्यथा न कहा गया हो।

3 पिछले सर्वेक्षण चक्र के परिणाम बैंक की वेबसाइट पर जून 07, 2024 को जारी किए गए थे। सर्वेक्षण के पिछले चक्रों के लिए यूनिट-स्तर के डेटा, बैंक के भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर डेटाबेस (DBIE) पोर्टल (वेबलिंक: https://data.rbi.org.in) पर 'यूनिट-स्तर डेटा' शीर्षक के अंतर्गत उपलब्ध हैं|

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